Issue #721
Jun 6, 2021 | Newsletter
The newsletter with chart analysis for stocks and stock indexes |
Stock Indexes Analysis/Evaluation
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| Economic Reports Failed To Generate New Ammunition for Either Side. CPI Report Thursday?
DOW Friday closing price - 34756
The DOW and the SPX generated a 2nd green weekly close in a row after the 2 previous red close weeks that were seen as a correction in which they corrected 4.5% and 4.7%. Such a size of a correction (from a new all-time high) has not happened in the last 3 years given that the previous smallest percentage correction was 5.7%, which was the previous correction. As such, there are still doubts as to whether the correction is over and the uptrend is resuming. This is especially true since the bulls did have an opportunity this past week to make new all-time weekly closing highs but they failed on Friday, with the DOW closing 21 points below the all-time weekly closing high at 34777 and the SPX closing 3 points below its all-time high at 4432. With the 2 biggest economic reports for the month having come out last week, if the bulls were going to be able to resume the uptrend, the probabilities suggest it would have been last week.
There is still one report of possible catalytic consequence due out this coming Thursday in the form of CPI. Inflation has been of much concern recently as a continued rise in inflation could force the Fed to raise interest rates sooner than expected. The anticipation is for the number to come out at .4% but the number last month came in higher than anticipated (came out at .8%) and if that happens again, it will be a strong negative for further appreciation of the indexes. If a red close occurs next Friday, a double top will have been created in both the DOW and the SPX and such a formation at this stage of the game, would be difficult to overcome, especially if formed and then confirmed (a weekly close in the DOW below 34207 and in the SPX below 4155).
All the indexes closed on or near the highs of the week and further upside above last week's intraweek highs (DOW at 34849, SPX at 4234 and the NASDAQ at 13784) are expected to be seen this week. Making a new all-time intraweek high is possible, especially in the SPX whose intraweek high is at 4238 and it closed at 4329 on Friday. Nonetheless, the key for the week will be the weekly closes next Friday and not the intraweek moves. This is especially true given that the pivotal report for the week comes out on Thursday and the traders are not likely to make any lasting decisions until that number comes out.
If there are any surprises prior to the CPI report coming out, it will likely be to the downside given that both of the economic numbers that came out this past week (ISM Index and Jobs) were slightly lower than expected, meaning not supportive to higher prices. Such a surprise would occur if the bears are able to generate a break of daily close support any day this week. In the DOW, a daily close below 34577, in the SPX a daily close below 4192 and in the NASDAQ a daily close below 13529 would be a sign that the bulls have failed and that the bears have regained the edge.
For the beginning of the week, the probabilities do favor the bulls but this coming week is likely to be (once again) mostly uneventful and with small trading ranges until after the CPI reports comes out on Thursday morning.
SILVER had a very uneventful week when looking at the weekly close, given that it closed only $.15 cents below the previous week's close, meaning that nothing was decided. Silver did close in the upper half of the week's trading range, suggesting further upside above last week's high at $28.70 will be seen this week. On a weekly closing basis, resistance is found at 28.23 but on an intraweek basis, there is minor resistance at 29.31, minor to perhaps decent at 30.04 and decent as well as pivotal at 30.595. The probabilities do favor the bulls continuing higher this week with 29.31 as its objective. Nonetheless, the probabilities do favor Silver making a statement next Friday with a weekly close above 28.23. On an intraweek basis, support is now found at 27.09. On a weekly closing basis, a close below 27.36 would now be seen as a negative sign. Probabilities favor the bulls.
OIL continued its recent uptrend, having made another new 32-month weekly closing high and closing near the high of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 69.76 will be seen this week. There is no established intraweek resistance above until 72.83 (71.28 on a weekly closing basis) is reached, which by the way is the level the current fundamental analysts have been given as the upside objective. Based on this breakout, the 65.25 level has now become short-term pivotal support, which if broken, would mean the rally is over. Probabilities favor the bulls but Oil is now the same amount ($3) above the breakout level than below the objective, meaning that some volatility is likely to start being seen. The inflation report next Thursday could also be some type of catalyst for Oil.
DOLLAR bulls were able to generate a pause in the downtrend as the Dollar went above the previous week's high for the first time in 5 weeks. Nonetheless, the close on Friday was $.11 cents above the previous weeks close and therefore not indicative of anything. In addition, the Dollar closed "exactly" in the middle of the weeks' trading range, suggesting equal chances of going above last week's high at 90.63 than below last week's low at 89.66. Like with everything else, the inflation report on Thursday is likely to have some effect. On a weekly closing basis, any close below 89.96 will be a negative. On a daily closing basis, any close below 89.83 will give the bears' additional ammunition. To the upside, the bulls need a daily close above 90.51 to begin to take away the edge from the bears. Probabilities continue to favor the bears.
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Stock Analysis/Evaluation
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CHART Outlooks
I have no new mentions for this week. Until the index market decides on a direction, stocks are likely to idle and therefore not tradeable. After Thursday's CPI reports, things may change and if they do, I will either give mentions on the board for mentions in the next newsletter.
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Updates
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| Updates on Held Stocks |
Closed Trades, Open Positions and Stop Loss Changes |
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AAPL generated a positive reversal week, having made a new 2-week low and then closing green and on the high of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 126.16 is expected to be seen this week. The green weekly close stops a run of 5 red weekly closes in a row and does open the door for an end to the correction, if and when the indexes (especially the NAZ) can make new all-time highs this coming week. Nonetheless, the bulls have not yet been able to make any kind of a statement that further downside is not to come. A rally up to 127.22, and perhaps even up to 127.89, could be seen this week but unless the bulls can get above 128.32, the probabilities will continue to favor the bears due to the bearish H&S formation. Pivotal intraweek support remains at 122.27. AU generated a second red weekly close after the breakout week 2 weeks ago. Nonetheless, the bears did not accomplish anything as the stock still closed above the 22.98 weekly close resistance level that when broken, caused the stock to rally up to 26.77. Nonetheless, having closed at 23.01 on Friday, next week's close is pivotal given that a red close will generate a failure signal against the bulls, while a green weekly close will mean the breakout level was tested successfully. As with most everything else, the inflation number than comes out next Thursday is likely to be catalytic. The stock did close in the lower half of the week's trading range, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 22.57 will be seen this week. Intraweek support is found at 22.50. The stock gapped down on Thursday and the gap (up at 23.68) is expected to be closed this week. The 200-day MA is currently at 23.85 and if a confirmed close above that level occurs, especially if above 24.67, it will mean the mini correction from this rally is over. Probabilities favor the bulls. BTZI continued the recent bear trend down with a new 4-month intraweek and weekly closing low. The stock closed near the low of the week and further downside below last week's low at .061 is expected to be seen this week. The stock likely has the .0545 level as its downside objective as that was the level that when broken, caused the stock to rally up to the .37 level. Nonetheless, the stock is now close enough to that level that any green weekly close from here on in, would likely signal that the breakout level has been tested successfully. It is important to note, especially with the big investment the company made into bitcoin miners, that Bitcoin generated an inside week this past week, as well as a green weekly close, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 39094 will be seen this week. If that occurs, it could give the bulls some new ammunition. There is important intraweek resistance in Bitcoin at 41616 and if that level is broken, it would suggest the correction in Bitcoin is over. Either way, the stock is now nearing a level at .0545 that should not be broken and given that there is no resistance above until the .08-.088 level is reached, the bulls are now starting to have the risk/reward ratio going to their side. Any intraweek rally above .088 would suggest a rally up to .105 would then likely ensue. The probabilities still slightly favor the bears but this correction is probably nearing the end. CAT generated a new all-time intraweek and weekly closing high and closed in the upper half of the week's trading range, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 246.69 will be seen this week. Nonetheless and on a daily closing basis, those highs were not confirmed as the all-time high daily close at 244.79 (made on May 17th) was not broken (highest daily close for the week was Friday at 244.02). In addition and on an inability indicator, the stock generated 4 daily green closes in a row (starting Tuesday) at 242.76, at 243.46, at 243.84 and Friday at 244.02 and yet no new all-time high daily close was accomplished. Such action, suggests that the bulls need/require additional ammunition to generate resumption of the uptrend. With the same situation occurring in the index market, it is evident that what the indexes do (or not do) this week, the stock will mimic them. Evidently, last week's low at 238.79 is pivotal support. A confirmed new all-time high daily close would also be confirmation of the uptrend resuming. Probabilities slightly favor the bears. CNX made a new 9-week weekly closing high and closed on the high of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 14.36 will be made this week. Nonetheless, it is also evident that the traders are confused as to what is to happen, given that the stock has now traded for 8 weeks in a row between 13.42 and 14.12 (based on weekly closes), which does suggest that neither the bulls nor the bears have a clear edge at this time. One positive thing happened this week that has the potential to give the bulls the edge is that the stock went above the previous week's high this past week and that made the previous weeks low at 13.22 into a successful retest of the 14-week low at 12.87 and that has now confirmed that the correction is over. Intraweek resistance is found at 14.67. If broken, there is no resistance above until the multi-year high at 15.89 is reached. Probabilities favor the bulls. CRON generated a negative reversal week, having made a new 9-week high but then closing red. Nonetheless, the stock did close in the middle of the week's trading range and "on" the 200-week MA, currently at 8.71, and that suggests that it is not a true reversal but a pause to await news this week that will confirm or deny the previous week's breakout. Evidently, if a green weekly close occurs next Friday, the break above the 200-week MA will be confirmed and the bulls will climb aboard for further upside. If a red close occurs, the rally will be seen as a 1-week wonder and the bulls will need to wait for further news regarding the legalization of Marijuana before new buying is seen again. Intraweek support will be found at the 200-day MA, currently at 8.05. On a daily closing basis, if the bulls are able to maintain the stock above 8.42, it will strengthen their position. To the upside, there is no resistance of any consequence until 10.56 is reached. Probabilities slightly favor the bulls this week. ENG bulls failed to confirm the previous week's break of weekly close resistance at 2.88, having closed on Friday at 2.74. The stock closed near the low of the week and further downside below last week's low at 2.64 is expected to be seen this week. The attention of the traders will now turn to the fact that if the stock does go below last week's low, it will be in a position to generate a successful retest of the 19-week low at 2.01, which is a chart requisite given that no positive news or change of fundamentals has occurred. If the retest is successful (a rally above this week's high next week), then the bulls will climb aboard for a recovery rally. Some intraweek support is found between 2.27 and 2.35 that should hold up if the correction has found its bottom (likely). Any confirmed daily close above the 200-day MA, currently at 3.09, will give the edge back to the bulls, especially if the stock has already gone below the previous week's low. Evidently, the previous week's high at 3.81 has now become pivotal resistance that if broken, would confirm the correction is over. Probabilities favor the bears at the beginning of the week but slightly favor the bulls for the end of the week. MRGE generated another uneventful inside week and a 2nd red close in a row. The stock closed in the lower half of the weeks trading range, suggesting further downside below last week's low at .0197 is likely to be seen this week. If that does happen and the stock then goes above this week's high next week, a successful retest of the 9-month low at .142 will have occurred. Such an event will bring in some new buying interest. There is clear intraweek support at .19 that is likely to be the downside objective this week. Pivotal resistance remains at .33. If broken and confirmed with a close above that level, the 200-day MA will have been broken to the upside and that should generate new buying interest. Nonetheless, this is a stock in which the traders are awaiting positive fundamental news to get involved with and until that happens, little other than "trading the small trading range" is likely to occur. NEM generated a red spike down week and a close in the lower half of the week's trading range, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 70.42 will be seen this week. Nonetheless, the stock is still trading clearly above the previous all-time weekly closing high and the action being seen is likely to end up being a retest of the breakout before continuing higher. The previous all-time weekly closing high is at 69.20 and the previous all-time daily closing high is at 70.37 a drop down to either of those levels would not be seen as a negative. Intraweek resistance is found at the recent all-time intraweek high at 75.31. Probabilities favor a bit more weakness this week but overall, the chart remains bullish. PEP generated a negative reversal week, having made a new all-time high at 148.85 (above the previous one at 148.77) but then closing red. Nonetheless, the bulls were able to close the stock in the upper half of the week's trading range, suggesting another new all-time intraweek high will occur this week. On a negative note, the bulls have now failed to generate a new all-time high weekly close above 148.30 for 4 weeks in a row, in spite that on all of those 4 weeks the stock got up to or above 148.00. It is clearly evident that some outside help (news or the indexes making new highs) is needed to get the bulls over the hump at this level of resistance that has now been up 7 months without a new high weekly close, in spite of the fact the indexes have appreciated 24% in value during the same period of time. Last week's low at 146.16 is now likely to be pivotal support that if broken, would give the bears a new edge. There is now a double top on the daily closing chart at 148.30/148.37. If that level is broken and confirmed, new buying interest is likely to be seen. For now, the probabilities slightly favor the bears. PGEN generated and inside week and yet another strongly uneventful week, having traded in a small $.41 cent trading range, much like was seen the previous week. The stock has now generated 5 weekly closes in a row between 6.57 and 6.92, that has done nothing to clarify the picture as to what to expect from here on in. By the same token, the bulls have been able to maintain the weekly close above the 6.47 level, which was a weekly close resistance level that when broken, generated a rally up to the $11 level, meaning that the bulls continue to hold on to the edge regarding the midterm trend. The stock did close in the upper half of the week's trading range, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 6.84 will be seen this week. The 200-day MA is currently at 6.99 and there is established pivotal intraweek resistance at 7.01. If that is broken and confirmed, the bears will regain the short-term edge. As far as the downside is concerned, a break below 5.80 would be a strong negative. On a slightly positive note, for the past 19 trading days, each intraweek low seen has been higher than the previous one, suggesting the bulls are winning the race by a very small margin. The most recent intraweek low is at 6.43, meaning that as long as that level does not get broken, probabilities slightly favor the bulls. SNDL generated a new 9-week intraweek and weekly closing high but unlike the previous week, the stock closed near the low of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at .98 will be seen this week. With the stock having doubled in price (from .74 to 1.49) in just 3 weeks, it is likely this drop is to confirm the breakout and build a new support level from which further upside can occur. On an intraweek basis, there is clear and decent support at .93, which is likely to be the downside target for this week. On a daily closing basis, the breakout of this rally occurred when the .95 level (based on a daily close) was broken, meaning that if this breakout if real (likely), that level will not be broken, though a retest of that level is a high probability. Intraweek resistance is found at 1.49, at 1.64. and at 1.75. Probabilities slightly favor the bears this week but overall, probabilities now favor the bulls for the midterm. SRUTF generated a spike down this past week and a red close but the stock did close in the upper half of the week's trading range, suggesting further upside above last week's high at .0851 will be seen this week. The stock had doubled in price over the past 4 weeks (from .044 to .091) and this week's drop is likely to be some retracing to build a new support level from which to launch further upside. The week's low was .063 and the breakout occurred from the .0585 level, suggesting that previous high might now have been tested successfully. There is some daily close resistance at .077 that will need to be re-broken this coming week but having closed on Friday at .075, that is not likely to be a big problem. If that does occur, and the recent high daily close at .091 is broken as well, there is open air above until the .14 level is reached. Probabilities favor the bulls. ZLAB generated a red weekly close and closed on the low of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 171.34 will be seen this week. The action this past week was short-term disappointing as the chart suggested the stock would be testing (and likely breaking) the all-time high either this past week or this coming week and now that scenario has been pushed back for at least a couple of weeks. There is no established support below until the 163.00 level is reached, meaning that there is a definite possibility the stock will fall down to that level this week or next. On a positive note though, the buy stock rating was raised from $192 to $202 this past week, meaning that fundamentally the stock remains strong and that also likely means that downside chart targets may not be reached. As such, it is important that the chart action this week be evaluated on a daily basis to see where there is buying interest seen. One such chart to watch is the intraday 10-minute chart in which the 200 10-minute MA is currently at 175.39. If the bulls can get above that line as stay above it for more than 30 minutes, the traders will once again become buyers. The second thing to watch for, is the daily closing chart at 177.19. That was the previous high daily close prior to the breakout last week and if the bulls can close above that level any day this week, the uptrend will likely resume immediately. Probabilities do favor the bears this week but overall the chart remains longer term bullish.
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1) SNDL - Purchased at .94. No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 1.09. 2) PGEN - Averaged long at 7.506 (3 mentions). Stop close only at 6.45. Stock closed on Friday at 6.67. 3) SRUTF - Averaged long at .0738 (3 mentions). No stop loss at moment. Stock closed on Friday at .0757. 4) BTZI - Averaged long at .1054 (3 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at .0645. 5) PEP - Shorted at 147.46. Averaged short at 146.78. Stop loss at 147.90. Stock closed on Friday at 147.84. 6) ZLAB - Averaged long at 134.64 (3 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 171.47. 7) AU - Averaged long at 26.106 (6 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 23.01. 8) NEM - Averaged long at 61.31 (3 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 71.45. 9) CNX - Averaged long at 10.876 (3 mentions). Stop loss now at 12.69 (weekly. Stock closed on Friday at 14.14. 10) CAT - Averaged short at 141.75 (2 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 244.02. 11 ENG - Averaged long at 4.92 (2 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 2.74. 12) AAPL - Shorted at 125.27. Stop loss at 128.43. Stock closed on Friday at 125.89.
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The opinions and commentaries by Mr. De Vito are not a recommendation to buy or sell, but rather
a charting guideline, based on his own knowledge and experience, regarding the stocks he is following or
that are brought to him by others. Mr. De Vito does not presently offer a track record of his trading experiences.
No inference of success and/or failure should be assumed. The
information enclosed above, regarding his background, length of trading, and experience, is correct
but is not meant to suggest, state, or infer any future success in trading, based on his opinions. The information herewith included should only be used by investors who are aware of the risk inherent in securities trading. Mr. De Vito accepts no liability whatsoever for any loss arising from any use of the information and/or comments he supplies. |
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