Issue #725
Jul 4, 2021 | Newsletter
The newsletter with chart analysis for stocks and stock indexes |
Stock Indexes Analysis/Evaluation
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| Bulls Celebrating July 4th with New All-Time Weekly Closing Highs across the Board!
DOW Friday closing price - 34870
The bulls across the board once again accomplished new all-time weekly closing highs in all indexes. They all closed on the highs of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's highs (DOW at 34893, SPX at 4371 and NASDAQ at 14891) being made this week. During the first part of the week, the bears were in control but then the "tried and true buy the dip mentality, (which has worked so well this year) brought enough buying interest at the end of the week to drive them to new highs. Nonetheless, there was no news to support either the selloff at the beginning of the week nor the new highs at the end of the week, meaning that it was not an indicative week.
This week things may begin to change as the new earnings quarter begins and the monthly CPI number (Inflation report) comes out. Recently, the CPI number (which comes out on Tuesday and is expected to be .5%) has been the most catalytic report of the month and earnings are always catalytic. Earnings are expected to come out even better than the already better-than-expected numbers given. If that does occur and inflation is not starting to run 'rampant", then the index are likely to continue higher. On the opposite side, the market is so overbought and the PE ratios so high that any disappointment could bring in a strong round of profit taking and new selling interest.
The only thing the charts will be good for this week is to signal where the pivotal areas of support are found that if broken (after the reports start to come out), will be indicative of a top. Evidently, last week's lows are now pivotal. In the DOW, that level is at 34135, in the SPX it is at 4289, and in the NASDAQ it is at 14551. All of those lows are spike lows from which the indexes generate a +2% rally last week. Spike low supports are always pivotal, at least on a short-term basis.
To the upside, the only index that still has resistance is the DOW. It is intraweek resistance at 35091 and if broken this week (a rally of 221 points above the close on Friday) it would mean open total open air above. Evidently because this index still has "some" resistance above, it will be the one watched by the traders.
The CPI report (Tuesday AM) will be the "key" this week as "rate" of inflation is the biggest worry right now. All the earnings reports this week are in the financial industry and those reports are not generally catalytic to the overall market as they are more about interest rates than they are about the overall health of the economy. I do want to mention that several guest analysts on Bloomberg TV stated last week that they expect the earnings reports due out this week to be even as much as 10% better than what is already expected to be better-than-expected reports. If that is not the case, the reports could disappoint if they do not match those expectations.
Given that there are no reports due out on Monday, it is expected that the index market will move up (above last week's highs) at the beginning of the week. As such, it could end up being an indicative negative reversal week if any of the reports disappoint. Probabilities though, favor the bulls as so far there have been very few (if any) negative surprises.
SILVER generated an uneventful red weekly close. Gold outperformed Silver this past week but not in a meaningful way. Silver closed at 26.23. It did close in the lower half of the week's trading range, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 25.82 will be seen this week. Nonetheless, such a move would be seen as a needed and required retest of the recent low at 25.58, if and when that same level is not broken and Silver then goes above this coming week's high the following week. Right now, the 25.58 and 26.91 levels are the keys to the short-term direction to be taken. Probabilities do slightly favor the bulls overall.
OIL had a "wild" week with a trading range of $6.22, which is the biggest trading range in 16 weeks. The reason for the volatility was the problems OPEC is having in keeping the assigned production cuts respected between the Saudi's and the United Arab Emirates. Oil generated a failure signal early in the week and on the daily closing chart (having closed 2-days in a row below the 3-week daily closing low at 72.91) but then that signal was not confirmed by the weekly closing chart on Friday, having closed above the now weekly close support at 74.34. The issue has not yet been resolved so the volatility is likely to continue until it is resolved. Nonetheless and in looking at the chart, the bulls remain in control though last week's intraweek low at 70.76 is now going to be seen as pivotal support, especially since it a spike down low. By the same token, the 76.90/76.98 intraweek high has now been given added strength as pivotal resistance that is unlikely to be broken until OPEC resolves the production cuts issue between those 2 countries. As such, Oil is likely to trade this week between a potential intraweek high at 76.22 and intraweek low at 71.97, unless of course, the issue is resolved. It is unlikely that the economic reports this week affecting the index market will offer enough incentive either way in the oil market. It should be another volatile week but likely to be non-indicative.
DOLLAR generated a negative reversal week, having made a new 14-week high and then closing red and near the low of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 92.00 will be seen this week. It is important to note that this is the 3rd week in a row that the bulls had to opportunity to make a bull statement but they have failed to do so, putting the short-term trend up into question as to whether it is over or not. By the same token, the failures to continue higher have not yet been supported with breaks of support, meaning that the traders continue to await more information before any decisions are made. That information may start to be given this week in the form of the CPI number on Tuesday. Intraweek support is now found at 91.75, which if broken would suggest further downside is to be seen. Certainly, a break above last week's high at 92.85 would negate this past week's negative reversal and give the bulls some additional ammunition, though the reality is that only a break of the 93.44 resistance would be a bull statement. On a daily closing basis, any confirmed close below 91.42, would put the bears back with the edge. Probabilities slightly favor the bears this week.
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Stock Analysis/Evaluation
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CHART Outlooks
The market is presently "out of whack" with the big money this past year keying on purchases of a few big stocks of interest and the rest of the market (mostly small cap stocks) being ignored and languishing at oversold and at low prices. This action seen has been the dichotomy all this year as this is not an established rule but a unique exception. I do believe this may begin to change this week due to the reports due out and the beginning of the next quarter of earnings reports.
The probabilities do not favor the earnings reports being way off and out of the expected lines enough to cause big movement in either direction. This likely means the traders are likely to start being a bit more conservative and starting to key on the forgotten (and oversold) stocks and staying away from the expensive and overbought stocks, given the risk involved and the likely small profits to be made (compared to the recent past).
The inflation report (CPI) has been a catalyst of late and in "in my opinion" will begin being even more of a catalyst during the next few months. This does go in contrary view to what most analysts are saying in which they believe that this current inflation is temporary and not to last long. I believe the opposite. The thing is that "believing the opposite" is not a negative at this time (even if 100% wrong) given that the stocks I am looking to purchase are oversold and languishing at established long-term support levels that are unlikely to be broken even if my view of inflation is wrong. Simply stated, buying these stocks is unlikely to offer any big risk but they do offer quite a bit of profit if inflation is to grow.
As such, the mentions given this week are all in this category (languishing at support levels and oversold). I am not going to give a lot of information about each stock other than a desired entry point, stop loss point and viable chart objective. You can pick and choose which one of these you want to buy (if any).
CUE Friday Closing Price - 11.34
CUE has established support between 10.68 and 10.85 from 5 different intraweek lows during the past 8 months. Viable (realistic) upside objective of 15.00. Purchase at Friday's close, using a 10.60 stop loss and having a 15.00 objective will offer a 5-1 risk/reward ratio.
DCTH Friday Closing Price - 10.93
DCTH has established support between 9.42 and 9.64 from a double bottom established over the past 2 months. Viable (realistic) upside objective of 18.00. Purchase at Friday's close, using a stop loss at 9.27 and having an 18.00 objective will offer a 4.5-1 risk/reward ratio.
SNDA Friday Closing Price - .89
SNDL has an established support level at .65 and the 200-day MA at .78. Viable (realistic) upside objective of 2.00. Purchase at Friday's closing price, using a stop loss at .60 and having a 2.00 objective offers a 3.8-1 risk/reward ratio.
TEVA Friday Closing Price - 9.30
TEVA has an established support level at 8.46 from a double low built in Sep/Oct of last year. Viable (realistic) upside objective of 13.76 from the high seen last year as well as the 200-week MA, currently at 13.89. Purchase at Friday's closing price at 9.30 and using an 8.36 stop loss and having an 13.76 objective offers a 4.7-1 risk/reward ratio.
All of these stocks are being mentioned exclusively because they are oversold, close to important and established support levels and likely to get some buying attention if the traders shift toward buying this type of a low risk/high profit opportunity. None of these stocks have been researched for viable fundamental opportunities. As such, take them with a "grain of salt".
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Updates
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| Updates on Held Stocks |
Closed Trades, Open Positions and Stop Loss Changes |
| AU generated a 2nd green weekly close in a row and though it is a positive it is not yet enough of a meaningful-enough positive for the bulls to have any confidence that the recent down turn has ended and a recovery period occur. The stock needed to generate a weekly close above 19.96 for that to occur but the close was at 19.49 and that means the bulls need to do more before a "sigh of relief" can occur. Evidently, Tuesday's CPI number could be a catalyst as Gold (and gold stocks) are always tied in closely to inflation. To the downside and on an intraweek basis, the 18.04 level is pivotal support (18.77 on a weekly closing basis). Any daily/weekly close above 19.96 would open the door for a recovery rally to 24.00. Probabilities favor the bulls given that Gold did generate a failure signal against the bears this week. Tuesday will be the pivotal day this week. BTZI generated a positive reversal week, having made a new 6-month intraweek low and then turning around and going above the previous week's high and generating a green weekly close. There has not been a positive reversal since October of last year (8 months) in which both the previous week's lows and highs have been broken, suggesting it was an indicative-of-a-major-low-having-been-found week. Nonetheless, the bulls were not able to close in the upper half of the week's trading range, meaning that confidence that a bottom to the correction has been made is still low. The stock did go below Thursday's low on Friday (but not below the low of the week at .04), meaning that if the bulls are able to stay away from breaking the .04 level and rally the stock any day this week above a previous day's high, a successful and required/needed retest of the low will have occurred. If that happens, it would give the bulls new reasons to buy. If the weeks' high at .06 is broken at any time, a new buy signal will be given and a recovery rally likely begin. On a daily or weekly closing basis, the .0545 level is pivotal as that level has been resistance and support for multiple months and if broken to the upside, it would strongly suggest that a recovery rally has begun. The .037 level is pivotal support that if broken, would be strongly negative. It does need to be mentioned that the Bitcoin chart is also leaning toward a recovery rally and the stock does have some important ties to that cryptocurrency. Probabilities slightly favor the bulls. CNX generated a positive reversal week, having made a new 9-week low at 12.89 and then turning around to close green and near the high of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 13.91 will be seen this week. It is evident that the 12.87-12.91 level is now strong pivotal support as 3 lows in the area have been generated over the past 9 weeks and from which rallies up to 15.15 and 14.86 have been seen. On a negative note though, there are now multiple intraweek lows (a total of 3) in that area and those multiple lows generally are a magnet for breakage. The key to that will be the 14.86 level given that a break above that level will break the lower-highs-than-the-previous-highs pattern and that would take away some of the magnetism from the multiple low. It is like that the stock will likely rally up to around the 14.50 level this week but if unable to rally more than that, consideration should be given to taking profits on the trade. As is the case across the board, the inflation number on Tuesday could be a catalyst. This is an ore company and inflation will help fundamentally. Probabilities favor the bulls this week. CRON generated a new 6-week intraweek low but then turned around to close near the high of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 8.42 will be seen this week. It was a disappointing-to-the-bulls week given that the bullish flag formation was debilitated with the new 6-week low. It was not totally negated as the stock did rally enough to keep the flag viable, but the upside objective of the flag has been downgraded from a potential high of 11.79 to 11.13. In addition and on another negative note, the 200-day MA, currently at 8.43, was broken on Tuesday and the stock stayed below the line all week (the break was not negated) and that means that the first thing the bulls need to do this week is get above 8.43 and close above the line 2 days in a row. Otherwise, the bears will get their edge back. The stock closed exactly in the middle of the week's trading range, suggesting equal chance of going above last week's high at 8.42 than below last week's low at 7.77. Whichever of the two occurs this week, it will be indicative. Probabilities slightly favor the bears. ENG generated a red weekly close but in spite of that, it could be said it was a "win for the bulls" given that a new 6-week intraweek low was made but the weakness was not confirmed (stock rallied enough on Friday to close above the weekly close support at 2.88 (closed at 2.94). The stock closed near the high of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 3.13 will be seen this week. The stock has now closed above 2.88 for 3 weeks in a row and given that this was the week in which the bears had the best chance to generate a failure signal against the bulls (but failed), suggests the downside is now over. As such, the chart is now likely to show a spike low retest of the 2.02 low seen in May and that would give the bulls ammunition to bring in new buying interest. Pivotal resistance is found at 3.35, which is a level strengthened by the 200-day MA, currently at that same price. A break and close above that level on any two days in a row this week, would be a new buy signal. The stock is now showing a double low on the intraweek chart between 2.53 and 2.50, which if broken would give the bears new ammunition. Probabilities favor the bulls this week. MRGE generated a totally uneventful inside week in which no new signals (or even signs) were given. Pivotal intraweek resistance is found at .2157, which if broken, would offer open air above up to .37. Pivotal intraweek support is found at .16 that if broken would give new ammunition to the bears. This is a stock in which the traders are awaiting positive fundamental news to get involved with and until that happens, little other than "trading the small trading range" is likely to occur. NEM generated a 3rd green weekly close in a row but like AU, it was totally uneventful. The traders are awaiting the information from the CPI number on Tuesday to decide whether to continue the recovery or resume the correction. The stock closed near the high of the week and further upside above last week's high at 64.42 is expected to be seen this week. Gold did generate a mini breakout this week, meaning the probabilities favor the bulls. The stock has open air above up to 65.78, suggesting that will be the upside objective for this week. Evidently, any new low below last week's low at 63.25 will weaken the chart. Probabilities favor the bulls. PGEN is showing much the same kind of chart action as CNX is showing, given that the stock now shows a triple low at 5.80/5.94/5.90 (last week's low) over the past 2 months. Nonetheless and unlike CNX, the stock closed near the low of the week and further downside below last week's low at 5.90 is expected to be seen this week. An additional negative, is that the stock closed on Friday below a previous high weekly close at 6.20, meaning that a second failure signal against the bulls has occurred, suggesting the bears are seemingly gaining strength. Nonetheless, the fundamental picture does not seem to suggest that much further downside can (or will be) be seen. Below is the information shown on Friday of the 6 analysts following the stock: The 6 analysts offering 12-month price forecasts for PGEN have a median target of 13.50 with the high estimate of 17.00 and a low estimate of 6.00. The median estimate represents a 122.4% increase from the closing price on Friday at 6.07". The fundamental picture suggests that the $6 level will hold up overall but on an intraweek basis, drops from that level could occur. The next area of intraweek support is found at 5.43 and then much stronger down at 4.92. If 5.70 is broken this week, a drop down to 5.43 will likely occur. SNDL made a new 7-week weekly closing low this week but closed exactly in the middle of the week's trading range, suggesting equal chances of going above last week's high at .96 than below last week's low at .83. One important note to mention is that the low for the week was made on Wednesday and a positive reversal day occurred as the high of the week was made on the same day. Given that Wednesday's low will likely be seen as a 2nd successful retest of the 200-day MA, currently at .793, the probabilities favor the bulls going above last week's high this week. Either way, the positive reversal day on Wednesday suggests that there is buying interest in this area and that the 200-day MA is highly unlikely to be broken. This means that from Friday's close at .8912, the downside is likely limited to no more than $.10 cents, whereas the upside has no limit. I have never added to my original purchase made at .94 but this week I will be adding positions, hopefully averaging down (rather than up). Key daily close resistance to watch is 1.00. A break of that level will likely give the bulls short-term control. Probabilities favor the bulls. SRUTF generated a red weekly close but it was not a negative given that it was only by $.003 cents and the stock went above the previous week's high and closed near the high of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at .0574 will be seen this week. Nonetheless, the stock remains trading below the breakout daily and weekly close breakout level at .0585 and until the bulls can negate that, the bulls will not have accomplished anything. On the other side of the coin, the stock has reached an intraweek level of support between .0425 and .0467 that was proven to be strong support prior to the breakout, meaning that there has to be new fundamental negatives come out for the bears to have any chance of going lower. The stock got down to .046 last week (on Tuesday) and did generate a positive reversal and then that low was tested on Friday (with a low at .0471) and another positive reversal occurred, meaning that it is a successful retest and confirmed as such if the stock goes above Friday's high at .055 on Monday. In addition, the 200-day MA is at .048 and that line has now been successfully tested for 11 days in a row, meaning that the stock seems to be ready for the bulls to come in and generate a recovery period. The .0585 level is pivotal. Probabilities favor the bulls. STWD generated a positive reversal week, having made a new 6-week low but then closing green and closing on the high of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 26.26 will be seen this week. The weakness seen last week was because of the announcement from the company that it was offering a $400 million note offering to finance some present green projects and the news caused the selloff. The note offering is to be finalized on Wednesday July 14th. Due to the offering, a 2nd failure signal was given on Thursday on the daily closing chart but then on Friday, the signal was negated. In addition, the bears failed to generate a failure signal on the weekly closing chart, having rallied 5.3% in value from Thursday's low to close at 26.26 and above the previous all-time high weekly close at 26.01. With the negatives of the note offering having been negated and the reasons for the note offering likely to be a positive to the company in the future, I would venture to say that the probabilities of the stock now heading higher consistently are high. Pivotal resistance is at 27.01. Pivotal support is now at 24.91. Whichever one gets broken is likely to generate indicative movement. Probabilities favor the bulls. ZLAB generated a red weekly close which does mean that the previous week's close at 175.90 has become a successful retest of the recent high weekly close at 177.66, which in turn was a successful retest of the all-time high weekly close at 182.57. This does give some added chart ammunition to the bears that they did not have before. On a positive note though, the stock made the low for the week on Thursday (at 160.19) and then turned around to close on Friday 5.3% higher, suggesting that the traders are still positive on the fundamental outlook for the stock, especially considering that there was no established support at the low of the week. The stock closed near the high of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 172.14 should be seen this week. The chart shows an open gap down (created on Tuesday between 174.01 and 172.14) that should be closed this week, as there was no news to support the gap. That gap is key for the week, as a failure to close the gap (lower low than the previous day's low) would mean the bears have the edge, while closure of the gap would be a positive as the negative week will have been negated (or at least not meaningful). Last week's low at 160.19 has now become pivotal support, meaning a stop loss at 159.65 can now be instituted. Any daily close above 180.00 would be a strong positive. The probabilities slightly favor the bulls.
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1) SNDL - Purchased at .94. No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at .891. 2) PGEN - Averaged long at 7.506 (3 mentions). Stop close only at 6.45. Stock closed on Friday at 6.07. 3) SRUTF - Averaged long at .0738 (3 mentions). No stop loss at moment. Stock closed on Friday at .0529. 4) BTZI - Purchased at .0579. Averaged long at .0935 (4 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at .048. 5) PEP - Covered shorts at 148,68. Averaged short at 146.78. Loss on the traade of $380 per 100 shares (2 mentions). 6) ZLAB - Averaged long at 134.64 (3 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 169.00. 7) AU - Averaged long at 26.106 (6 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 19.49. 8) NEM - Averaged long at 61.31 (3 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 63.98. 9) CNX - Averaged long at 10.876 (3 mentions). Stop loss now at 12.69 (weekly. Stock closed on Friday at 13.83. 10) STWD - Purchased at 26.10. No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 26.26. 11 ENG - Averaged long at 4.92 (2 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 2.94. 12) AAPL - Covered shorts at 140.76. Averaged short at 131.32. Loss on the trade of $1886 per 100 shares (2 mentions). 13) ZLAB - Purchased at 162.47. Liquidated at 165.07. Profit on the trade of $260 per 100 shares. 14) CRON - Averaged long at 9.146 (3 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 8.07. 15) MRGE - Purchased at .28. No stop loss at present. Stock closed at .175 on Friday. 16) MAS - Kiquidated at 57.64. Purchased at 58.60. Loss on the trade of $96 per 100 shares. 17) AAPL - Shorted at 144.35. Liquidated at 145.01. Loss on the trade of $132 per 100 shares (2 mentions).
Previous Newsletters
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The opinions and commentaries by Mr. De Vito are not a recommendation to buy or sell, but rather
a charting guideline, based on his own knowledge and experience, regarding the stocks he is following or
that are brought to him by others. Mr. De Vito does not presently offer a track record of his trading experiences.
No inference of success and/or failure should be assumed. The
information enclosed above, regarding his background, length of trading, and experience, is correct
but is not meant to suggest, state, or infer any future success in trading, based on his opinions. The information herewith included should only be used by investors who are aware of the risk inherent in securities trading. Mr. De Vito accepts no liability whatsoever for any loss arising from any use of the information and/or comments he supplies. |
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