Issue #722
Jun 13, 2021 | Newsletter
The newsletter with chart analysis for stocks and stock indexes |
Stock Indexes Analysis/Evaluation
|
| Traders Trying To Resume Uptrend in Spite of Economic Reports Not Supporting!
DOW Friday closing price - 34479
The bulls were successful this past week with the SPX generating a new all-time intraweek and weekly closing high and the NASDAQ coming within 75 points of its all-time high. The NASDAQ was the best performer, having appreciated 1.7% in value versus the SPX at .5% and the DOW that actually depreciated .8% in value. The first two indexes closed on the highs of the week, suggesting higher prices above 4249 and 13998 (respectively) will be seen this week. The DOW underperformed this past week, having generated a red weekly close .8% below last week's close and closing in the lower half of the week's trading range, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 34328 will occur. The dichotomy between the DOW and the NAZ (in favor of the NAZ) suggests that this rally does have some "legs" underneath and that the uptrend is likely to resume, at least as seen from a chart point of view.
Unfortunately (for the bulls) the rally is not fully supported by the fundamentals given that the ISM Index and Jobs report the previous week came in lower than expected and the CPI report this past week (inflation), came in higher than anticipated. None of these reports offers strong fundamental support to higher prices. As such, and though the probabilities now suggest the indexes will continue higher, the buying interest is likely to be limited, sporadic, and not concentrated enough to offer any assurances that the market will continue higher.
There are 3 economic reports of some consequence scheduled for this week (Retail Sales and PPI on Tuesday and the Fed rate decision on Wednesday) but none of these reports are considered to be "possibly catalytic". As such, the bulls will key on momentum and the charts. Momentum is important right now given that where the indexes are trading, any weakness seen will turn the charts negative. As such, the traders cannot allow any red close days of any consequence to occur this week.
The index to watch this week will be the SPX and the previous all-time high daily and weekly close at 4232. Any confirmed close below that level will deflate the bull momentum. On the opposite side, any confirmed daily close in the NASDAQ above 14031 will give the bulls new ammunition.
Probabilities slightly favor the bulls. Then again, the overall probabilities continue to favor small trading range, limited movement in either direction, and no clear statements being made.
SILVER made another 10-month weekly closing high on Friday and did close in the upper half of the week's trading range, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 28.45 is expected to be seen this week. Silver has started once again to outperform Gold and that is a positive for the precious metals industry. By the same token, Silver has now traded for the past 5 weeks within a narrow trading range between 27.47 and 28.24 (based on weekly closes) and the bulls have been unable to generate a breakout above 28.32, which is the 9-year weekly closing high, suggesting that some catalyst is needed. The PPI report is due out this week but given that CPI did not generate enough buying interest to cause the breakout to occur, it is unlikely the PPI number will do it. The probabilities do favor the bulls continuing higher this week with 29.31 as its objective. Nonetheless, the probabilities do not favor Silver making a statement next Friday with a weekly close above 28.23. On an intraweek basis, support is now found at 27.09. On a weekly closing basis, a close below 27.36 would now be seen as a negative sign. Probabilities favor another sideways action week.
OIL continued its recent uptrend, having made another new 32-month intraweek and weekly closing high and closing near the high of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 71.24 will be seen this week. Nonetheless, Oil is now reaching the next level of resistances of consequence that is unlikely to be broken without additional fundamental changes. On an intraweek basis, there is resistance at 72.83 but on a weekly closing basis, the resistance is found at 71.28 and that is only $.37 cents above Friday's close at 70.91, suggesting that this coming week, volatility will start to be seen again. There is further intraweek resistance at 75.27 and at 76.90. Nonetheless, on a weekly closing basis, there is a double top at 74.15/74.35 that is "highly unlikely" to be broken without further fundamental changes (not likely to occur). As such, Oil is likely to be reaching a top of consequence and from which a drop down to the $42 or even the $32 level could occur, sometime during the rest of the year. Probabilities favor the bulls this week but on a limited basis.
DOLLAR generated the 3rd green weekly close in a row, suggesting the bulls have not only found a probable bottom to this correction but have done enough to likely generate a rally to test the resistance levels above. By the same token, it was an inside week (no rally above the previous week's high), which also likely means that the strength being seen right now is minor and not all that dependable. Nonetheless, the Dollar closed near the high of the week and further upside above last week's high at 90.61 is expected to be seen. There is some minor intraweek resistance at 90.95 that is likely to be reached and that will somewhat measure how much strength (or lack thereof) is being seen. If that level stops the rally and heads back lower, it will mean the bears still have the short-term edge. Above 90.95, there is no resistance until 91.60 and that resistance is decent and what happens there will clear up the picture quite a bit. Intraweek support is now found at 89.68. Overall, the chart suggests the Dollar will be trading between 89.68 and 91.60 for the next few weeks (or couple of months) as traders await more news.
|
Stock Analysis/Evaluation
|
CHART Outlooks
For the time being and with the market not clear as to what is happening, finding stocks to trade that have a decent probability rating is very difficult. Nonetheless and in looking for "something to trade", I did look at a few stocks this week and I did find one stock that caught my attention. As such, that is the mention for the week.
STWD Friday closing price - 26.77
STWD is a real estate investment fund and with properties continuing to go up in value, the fundamentals do favor the stock continuing higher.
STWD made a new all-time high this past week, having closed above the previous all-time weekly closing high at 26.01. The stock did close on the high of the week and further upside above last week's high at 26.84 is expected to be seen this week. As it is, the stock has more than tripled in price during the last year and gone up 32% in value since January. New all-time highs have one general chart rule and that is that the previous all-time high becomes support and with the stock closing only 3% above the previous high, purchase of the stock does offer value, a good risk/reward ratio, and a good probability rating.
With STWD having gone up 32% in the past 5 months, it is possible that the same appreciation in value will occur over the next 5 months and that would mean a $35 objective.
The previous all-time weekly closing high at 26.01 was made 15 months ago but this year, the stock did get up to a daily closing high at 25.87 in April and this past week, all of those levels were broken. A drop down to test the breakout level is likely to happen at some point over the next 1-3 weeks and waiting for that to happen is an option. By the same token, with the stock having closed at 26.77 and the previous daily closing high at 25.87 as well as showing an intraweek low at 25.45, a stop loss at 25.35 can be used. If the stock does head up to the potential upside objective of $35, purchasing the stock at Friday's close would offer a risk of about $140 with a potential profit of $823 per 100 shares, meaning that not waiting for the retest to occur still offer a 6-1 risk/reward ratio.
My probability rating is a 3.75 (on a scale of 1-5 with 5 being the highest).
|
Updates
|
| Updates on Held Stocks |
Closed Trades, Open Positions and Stop Loss Changes |
| AAPL generated another green week in which the short-term pivotal resistance at 128.32 was broken but then again, only broken by a small amount ($.14 cents) and there was no follow through. Nonetheless, the stock did close in the upper half of the week's trading range, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 128.46 will be seen this week. If that does occur, there is no intraweek resistance until 132.63 and even then, that is minor resistance. Even if that level breaks, the chart remains bearish with the H&S formation still in place. The probabilities do favor the stock heading higher this week, meaning I am likely to take the loss on the short put on the previous week and look to re-short the stock up around the 132.50 level. There was a clear risk of this recent sale not working out given that no sell signal or break of support had occurred. If I do cover the short and re-short above 132.50, I will be using a stop loss at 137.17 but having the same $96 objective, meaning a risk/reward ratio of 7-1. The chart is still overall bearish with only the short-term (1-3 weeks) in question. AU generated the 3rd red weekly close in a row and has given back 80% of the gains accomplished in the 3 weeks prior to the correction, meaning that the strength seen the previous month is not yet an indication that the correction is over. The stock closed near the low of the week and further downside below last week's low at 21.43 is expected to be seen this week. Using the monthly chart, the probabilities now favor the stock getting below last month's low at 21.00, which in turn could end up being the required/needed retest of the 11-month low seen in March at 19.55, if and when that low is not broken and the stock goes above in July above this month's high at 24.46. The monthly chart is usually not all the indicative but with the stock having dropped back 80% of the recent rally, the daily and weekly charts are not indicative at this time. The fact that Gold has moved up $240 dollars over the past couple of months, does suggest that the low at 19.55 will "not" be broken and if the scenario outlined above does occur, it would suggest the uptrend could be resuming. On the monthly chart, the 200-month MA is currently at 27.15 and if that level gets broken over the next couple of months, it could mean the 9-year high at 38.50 will be tested and likely broken. The chart is clear as to the $20 level now being extremely pivotal, meaning that purchases below $21 should be considered, using a stop loss at 19.45. Probabilities favor the bulls this week, at least as far as a green close next Friday. BTZI generated a positive reversal week, having made a new 17-week low and then closing green. The positive reversal was not necessarily indicative as it closed on the bottom half of the weeks trading range, suggesting further downside below last week's low at .06 will be seen this week. By the same token, the positive reversal does suggest that some buying interest in starting to be seen, especially considering that the original breakout came from the .0545 level and that is now close by. By the same token, last week's high at .075 is at the 200-day MA, meaning that there is now a clear pivot point (at .075) where the traders can feel confident that the correction is over and where new buying is likely to be seen if broken convincingly. As such, the parameters are now clear with .0545 as support and .075 as resistance. CNX made a new 9-week intraweek and closed in the upper half of the week's trading range, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 15.15 is expected to be seen. The correction has now been confirmed as "over", meaning that the question is now whether the uptrend has resumed or whether this is just a retest of the 29-month high at 15.75. With the rating companies having a $16 objective, the probabilities favor the stock getting up to the previous high, and maybe even getting slightly above it, but no further. This means that if the stock gets up to around the 15.75 high, consideration should be given to taking profits as the probabilities favor a sideways trading range between 13.50 and 16.00 for the next few months, if not the rest of the year. CRON generated a new 9-week intraweek high and a close near the high of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 9.42 will be seen this week. The stock has now closed above the 200-week MA, currently at 8.75, on 2 of the last 3 weeks and the week where it closed below the line, it was at 8.62, meaning that the bulls have now likely established that a short-to-midterm uptrend has begun. There is no intraweek resistance above until 10.56 is reached. There is further resistance at 10.96 and the objective of this rally it a move up to that area before a mini correction might begin. Support is now clearly defined by the 200-day MA, currently at 8.13. Probabilities favor the bulls. ENG generated an uneventful inside week but the stock remains below the resistance at 2.88 (weekly close) and that keeps the bears with the edge. The stock did close in the lower half of the week's trading range, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 2.66 will be seen this week. Nonetheless, the same thing occurred the previous week and the bears were unable to do anything about it, suggesting that there is decent buying support for the stock in this general area. The traders are still looking for a retest of the 2.01 low and that is likely to happen before the bulls can establish enough interest to take the stock higher. Some intraweek support is found between 2.27 and 2.35 that should hold up if the correction has found its bottom (likely). Any confirmed daily close above the 200-day MA, currently at 3.09, will give the edge back to the bulls, especially if the stock has already gone below the previous week's low. Evidently, the previous week's high at 3.81 has now become pivotal resistance that if broken, would confirm the correction is over. Probabilities favor the bears at the beginning of the week but slightly favor the bulls for the end of the week. MRGE did go below the previous week's low this past week and then closed near the high of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at .021 will be seen this week. If that does occur, a successful retest of the .014 low will have occurred and a recovery rally will then likely ensue. Pivotal resistance remains at .33. If broken and confirmed with a close above that level, the 200-day MA will have been broken to the upside and that should generate new buying interest. Nonetheless, this is a stock in which the traders are awaiting positive fundamental news to get involved with and until that happens, little other than "trading the small trading range" is likely to occur. NEM generated another red weekly close (the 3rd in a row) and did close in the lower half of the week's trading range, suggesting further intraweek downside below last week's low at 69.89 will be seen this week. Nonetheless and on a positive note, the stock closed on Tuesday at 69.93 and then generated 3 subsequent closes above that level and this is important as the previous all-time high daily close is at 70.37 and it can now be said that level has been retested successfully. Of course, the bulls need to maintain themselves this week above 69.93 on a daily closing basis and generate a close above 71.06 in order for the bulls to consider this support level as confirmed. That is what this week will be all about (69.93 and 71.06 - based on the daily close). Whichever side wins this battle for this week, is likely to have a decided edge the rest of the week. Probabilities do favor the bulls. PEP made a new 12-week intraweek high after it was announced that one of their chronic Diabetic drugs has received positive clinical trial results. Nonetheless, the spike up rally was not confirmed on the weekly closing chart given that the weekly close resistance at generated a 2nd red weekly close but both of the red closes have been by minimal amounts, meaning that nothing has been decided. Nonetheless and using the daily closing chart, the pivotal levels are clear now with 148.30 to the upside and 146.37 to the downside. A close above or below those levels will give a clear edge to whichever side obtains it. Probabilities slightly favor the bears given the inordinate amount of time the bulls have spent trying to generate a breakout and having so far failed. PGEN received good news this past week in the form of clinical trials results being positive on one of their chronic diabetic medicines. The stock did generate a spike up rally to 8.72 but the bulls failed to close above the weekly close resistance at 8.07, meaning that the good news is not yet good enough to confirm that the stock will begin to move higher. Nonetheless and using the daily closing chart, the stock now shows 5 daily closes above the 200-day MA, currently at 7.03, and that has given a clear edge to the bulls. The stock did close slightly in the lower half of the week's trading range, suggesting a slightly higher probability of going below last week's low at 6.52 than above last week's high at 8.72. Nonetheless and because of the positive news, it seems unlikely that a drop below last week's low will occur, especially given that there is some short-term pivotal support on the daily chart at 6.97. As such, the chart suggests that a drop back down to the 200-day MA at 7.03 will occur but that a rally will then begin that will take the stock above last week's high at 8.72 and even possibly to the 200-week MA, currently at 9.03. This area between 6.52 and 9.03 is the "bone of contention" this week. Probabilities do slightly favor the bulls. SNDL generated an inside week but closed red and on the low of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 1.03 will be seen this week. By the same token, the stock did also close near the low of the week the previous week and yet the bears were not able to get the stock below the previous week's low, suggesting that there is quite a bit of buying interest around the 1.00 level. I do believe the bears will be able to take the stock lower this week and probably as low as .93 but I also expect the bulls to maintain themselves above the .97 level (based on a weekly close) and then start a new rally the following week. It is likely that for the next 2-4 weeks, the stock will trade between .94 and 1.20 (based on a daily close). In the longer run, I do expect the stock to move higher but for now, the probabilities favor a sideways trend within that trading range. SRUTF had a totally uneventful inside week with a close in the middle of the week's trading range, strongly suggesting that further action between .065 and .08 will continue to be seen for the next week or two. Any break above or below either of those levels is likely to generate further movement in that direction. For now though, it is unlikely either will happen. ZLAB followed through to the downside, having generated lower low than the previous week and another red close. The stock closed in the lower half of the weeks trading range, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 165.69 will be seen this week. Nonetheless, the overall action remains in favor of the bulls and as such and in looking at the daily closing chart, support will be found at the 165.00 level, which I believe is unlikely to be broken. Overall, the chart is quite bullish but it has become evident that resumption of the uptrend is likely not to happen for another 1-3 weeks. Probabilities slightly favor the bulls this week.
|
1) SNDL - Purchased at .94. No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 1.05. 2) PGEN - Averaged long at 7.506 (3 mentions). Stop close only at 6.45. Stock closed on Friday at 7.33. 3) SRUTF - Averaged long at .0738 (3 mentions). No stop loss at moment. Stock closed on Friday at .0748. 4) BTZI - Averaged long at .1054 (3 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at .065. 5) PEP - Shorted at 147.46. Averaged short at 146.78. Stop loss at 147.90. Stock closed on Friday at 147.69. 6) ZLAB - Averaged long at 134.64 (3 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 169.63. 7) AU - Averaged long at 26.106 (6 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 21.63. 8) NEM - Averaged long at 61.31 (3 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 70.31. 9) CNX - Averaged long at 10.876 (3 mentions). Stop loss now at 12.69 (weekly. Stock closed on Friday at 14.75. 10) CAT - Covered shorts at 239.80. Averaged short at 141.75. Profit on the trade of $390 (2 mentions). 11 ENG - Averaged long at 4.92 (2 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 2.81. 12) AAPL - Shorted at 125.27. Stop loss at 128.43. Stock closed on Friday at 127.35. 13) AU - Purchased at 22.48. Liquidated at 21.87. Loss on the trade of $61 per 100 shares.
Previous Newsletters
|
The opinions and commentaries by Mr. De Vito are not a recommendation to buy or sell, but rather
a charting guideline, based on his own knowledge and experience, regarding the stocks he is following or
that are brought to him by others. Mr. De Vito does not presently offer a track record of his trading experiences.
No inference of success and/or failure should be assumed. The
information enclosed above, regarding his background, length of trading, and experience, is correct
but is not meant to suggest, state, or infer any future success in trading, based on his opinions. The information herewith included should only be used by investors who are aware of the risk inherent in securities trading. Mr. De Vito accepts no liability whatsoever for any loss arising from any use of the information and/or comments he supplies. |
![]() |
|
|