Issue #724
Jun 27, 2021
The Oasis

Newsletter


The newsletter with chart analysis for stocks and stock indexes

Stock Indexes Analysis/Evaluation


Yo-Yo Index Market, Negative Fed News Tossed. New Highs Made In SPX and NAZ!

DOW Friday closing price - 34433
SPX Friday closing price - 4280
NASDAQ Friday closing price - 14345

The bulls were in total control this past week with both the SPX and NASDAQ making new all-time intraweek and weekly closing highs and rallying over 2% above last week's close and the DOW rallying 3.4%. All indexes closed on the highs of the week and further upside above last week's highs (DOW above 34501, SPX above 4286 and NAZ above 14429) are expected to be seen this week.

The reasons given for the rally are 1) the Fed talking down the statement made the previous week, 2) additional fiscal stimulus to the economy that the infrastructure plan will supply and 3) the fresh acceleration in the world economy. On the other side of the coin, the SPX current P/E ratio is 39.90 and the average between 1900 and 2005 was 14, meaning that the expectations for growth are much higher than the norm. The all-time high P/E ratio for the market was 123.32 (seen in June 2009), meaning that the ratio (as of now) still has room to grow. By the same token, during the past 15 years, the ratio has generally been around the 20.00 level, so it can be said that sometime in the near future, the indexes will have a major correction, if not a big downtrend. It should be noted that in 2008, just prior to the big drop in the market that occurred in March 2009, the ratio went up from 26 to 119 in a period of 6 months, meaning that every month the ratio spiked higher. It is expected that the ratio this month will be above 45.00. The last time the ratio was at 27.00 was 13 months ago in May 2020, so the "time" frame of rises is much longer now than it was in 2008, which in turn suggests it is going to continue before a big drop occurs. Nonetheless, getting up to 123 is not necessary, in order to generate a big bubble situation.

This week will have some possibly catalytic reports with the first one coming on Tuesday in the Consumer Confidence number. Last month it came in at 117.2 and the consensus has it coming in this month at 120. Anything lower than last month would deflate some of the expectations as there is a strong bullish feeling around and if that is not proven with this report, the indexes could fall. On Thursday, the ISM Index report comes out and it is expected at 61 with last month being 61.2. Anything lower than 60 would be seen as a negative. Last but not least, on Friday the Jobs number comes out and it is expected to be at 680k with last month being 559k. Anything below last month's number would be seen as a negative. The reality though, is that none of these numbers are likely to be "way out of place" and therefore not likely to be catalytic for either side.

If the reports are not catalytic, the traders will be keying on the DOW, as it is the only index that is still below its previous all-time high. The index closed on Friday 416 points below a pivotal intraweek resistance at 34849. On a daily closing basis though, the index is only 344 points below the all-time daily closing high at 34777. If the bulls are able to get the index to make a new all-time high, the bears will have nothing they can use to generate enough chart-selling interest in order to prevent a whole new leg up occurring in the overall all market.

As far as to the downside, the traders will be watching the SPX and the previous all-time daily closing high at 4255. Any confirmed close below that number will deflate the bulls and bring about new selling interest. A confirmed daily close below 4232 even more so as that was the all-time high daily close below the last one at 4255. Evidently, if both of those levels fail to hold up, it would likely mean the bulls have likely decided that the top has been found.

Probabilities do not favor any of these reports being catalytical, meaning the bulls will continue to have a measure of control. The DOW will have a say in just "how much" control is held by the bulls. If nothing happens this week, the next chance for the bears to accomplish anything will be the week of July 14th. In that week, not only do the next quarter earnings results begin but also the CPI report comes out. It is likely the CPI report is the most pivotal report at this time. Inflation (and how much and for how long) is the key to this market at this time.

Probabilities do favor the bulls this week.


GOLD had a very uneventful week, having generated a green weekly close but then only by $8 and trading sideways in a $33 trading range, compared to the $118 trading range seen the previous week. The bulls can claim a small victory with Gold not going below the previous week's low but then again, no resistance levels were broken or even reached, meaning that it was a successful defensive week but nothing else. Gold closed slightly in the lower half of the weeks' trading range, suggesting a slightly higher chance of going below last week's low at $1764 than above last week's high at $1795. On a daily closing basis, a close above $1795 would generate new buying interest while a close below $1769 would generate the opposite. Probabilities are even this week.

SILVER generated a positive reversal week, having made a new 10-week intraweek low and then closing green and in the upper half of the week's trading range, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 26.38 will be seen this week. There is some short-term daily close resistance at 26.60 and short-term support at 25.87. A break of either will likely generate at least an $.80 cent move in that direction. Overall, the chart remains leaning in favor of the bulls.

OIL made yet another new 33-month intraweek and weekly closing high and closed on the high of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 74.25 is expected to be seen this week. Oil has reached a very important pivot point on the weekly closing chart at 74.17/74.34, which is a where a double top that was built in 2018 exists and that if broken, would open the door for a rally to the $80-$85 level. This area of resistance actually goes all the way back to 2006 and during this entire time has been strongly pivotal on 3 different occasions. In looking at the monthly chart, Oil has moved straight up over the past 9 months from the $35 level (meaning it has more than doubled in price) and the probabilities do favor the bears as this is a level that requires strong positive fundamentals to break. Using the daily closing chart, a close below 73.06 would tilt the edge back to the bears, while an intraweek rally above 76.80 would give control to the bulls. Probabilities favor the bears.

DOLLAR generated a red weekly close, suggesting that the strength seen the previous week has found resistance at 92.22 that will require additional fundamental positive news to break. On a daily closing basis, the 91.31 level is now short-term pivotal resistance that if broken would suggest the recovery rally is over and sideways trading is to occur. The economic reports this week are considered "fundamental news", meaning that by the end of the week, one or the other (support or resistance) are likely to be broken.


Stock Analysis/Evaluation

CHART Outlooks

With the indexes still in a fragile situation and the outlook still uncertain, there is little that can be done in the general market regarding trading. Nonetheless, there is one industry (Oil) that has reached a level of resistance that is strongly pivotal and that has a long history (15 years) of being in place. The bulls are in control at this time but the level of resistance is so clearly defined that the bulls will have a tough time breaking it and as such, it offers clearly defined and positive risk/reward ratios with a decent probability ratings with short positions in Oil industry stocks. Here is the one I am mentioning.

XOM Friday Closing Price - 64.66

XOM is a stock that has been in a downtrend for the past 7+ years, from a high 104.76. The downtrend became a "runaway freight train" to the downside 16 months ago when it broke an established weekly close support at 67.49 and fell down to 32.62 (based on a weekly close), a low that was made 8 months ago. Evidently that level (around $32.50) was determined to be a bottom and the stock has since bounced up by doubling in price. Nonetheless, the 200-week MA, currently at 66.11, is a line that has been in place for the past 6 years, determining that the stock continues to be in a bear market though a bottom to that bear market has been determined. As such and in order to break this MA line and establish that the downtrend has ended and a bull trend has started, the stock needs to break that MA line, has to generate a confirmed weekly close above 67.49, and more importantly, oil has to break its strongly established resistance around the $75 level. All possible but not likely to occur.

XOM closed on the high of the week and further upside above last week's high at 64.93 is expected to be seen. The MA line is at 66.11 and likely to be reached this week due to the strength seen in Oil and the stock last week. With the 67.49 level (on a weekly closing basis) a very important and pivotal resistance line, the risk ratio is clearly defined and small (around $2 per share).

As far as the potential profit to be made, XOM shows some recently established weekly close support between 53.08 (previous multi-week high weekly close) and 55.57 (most recent low weekly close of some consequence). As such, the downside objective is a drop down to somewhere in that area. This suggests a trade that offers about a $2 risk ratio and a $10-$12 potential profit.

Sales of XOM above 66.00 and using a 67.59 stop loss (based on a weekly close) and having a $55 downside objective will offer a 5.5-1 risk/reward ratio. My rating on the trade is a 3 (on a scale of 1-5 with 5 being the highest).

Updates
Updates on Held Stocks
Closed Trades, Open Positions and Stop Loss Changes

AAPL generated another green weekly close (the 4th in a row) and closed in the upper half of the week's trading range, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 134.64 will be seen this week. Nonetheless and with the fact that the NASDAQ made a new all-time high, it is a negative that the bulls in the stock were not able to break "any" resistance other than a 2-point downtrend line, which by the fact that it is only 2 points is not considered a valid trend line. On a daily closing basis, the stock does have pivotal resistance at 134.84 and the stock closed on Wednesday at 133.98, followed by 2 red daily closes in a row, suggesting the level of resistance has now been tested successfully. As such and on a daily closing basis, the 134.84 level is pivotal resistance. To the downside and also on a daily closing basis, the 130.46 level is also pivotal support, which if broken, would mean the bearish Head & Shoulders formation remains in place and that the bears now have the edge in trying to break the neckline. Probabilities slightly favor the bears.

AU generated another red weekly close but this time it was only by $.08 cents, suggesting that some buying interest is being found. There is established weekly close chart support around the 18.77 level and having closed at 18.89 and at 18.81 the last 2 weeks, it does suggest that on a weekly closing basis, this level of support is standing up and that it will likely require further weakness of consequence in Gold for it to be broken. The stock did close in the upper half of the week's trading range, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 19.46 will be seen this week. The stock does show an open down gap on the weekly chart between 21.43 and 21.39 and this stock has a habit of closing all gaps, suggesting a rally up to that level will occur over the next couple of weeks. On an intraweek basis, the 200-week MA is currently at 16.92, so a drop down to that level (on an intraweek basis) remains a possibility though not necessarily a probability. Pivotal level for this week is 19.96 on a daily closing basis. That was previously a double bottom that when broken brought about the drop down to 18.34. Negation of that break would suggest the correction is over. Intraweek resistance is now found at 22.93 and stronger and pivotal at 23.85. If broken, the entire move down seen the past couple of weeks will be negated. At this time though, that is unlikely to occur, meaning that the probabilities favor the stock trading between the 18.50 and 23.85 level for the next few weeks until some new fundamental news occurs.

BTZI continued the recent bear trend down with a new 4-month intraweek and weekly closing low. The stock closed near the low of the week and further downside below last week's low at .051 is expected to be seen this week. The stock did close below the previous high weekly close resistance at .0545 (closed at .0531), which was the level that was broken to the upside that caused the rally to .37 to occur. This means that the bulls are fully committed to closing green next Friday in order to prevent confirmation of the failure signal against the bulls that was given this week. The stock has seen nothing but sell pressure during the past 11 weeks as each week the high of the week has been lower than the previous week. As such, a rally above last week's high at .06 would suggest the downside is over. The stock has been following Bitcoin trading as it recently purchased 1000 Bitcoin miners. Bitcoin did generate a green weekly close after reaching intraweek support at 28991 with a low last week at 29207, suggesting that the probabilities now slightly favor the bulls and a recovery rally. If that is the case, the stock should rally this week. Probabilities favor the bulls.

CNX has had 2 wild weeks in a row with the previous week being a strong down move and last week being a positive reversal week in which 98% of the previous week's losses were recouped. It is important to note that on an intraweek basis, the 12.87 level has been confirmed as pivotal and the stock got down to 12.91 this past week and then closed up at 14.63, which is only $.12 cents from the previous 10-week weekly closing high at 14.75 that was set 3 weeks ago. The successful retest of the pivotal support, the positive reversal week, and the close once again above the 13.87 weekly close resistance level that has been pivotal for the past 4 months does suggest the bulls will be in full control this week with the previous intraweek high at 15.75 as the target to break. Probabilities favor the bulls.

CRON generated a positive reversal week, having made a new 3-week intraweek low and then closing green and near the high of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 9.09 will be seen this week. The stock has basically been trading sideways for the past 4 weeks between 8.11 and 9.42, which is basically the flag area in a bullish flag formation, which if broken (a rally above 9.42) would offer an 11.54 objective. For the past 4 weeks, the stock has been straddling the 200-week MA, currently at 8.82 and if able to establish itself above that area for more than 2 weeks in a row, it would give the bulls short-term control. Pivotal support is found at 8.11. Probabilities favor the bulls.

ENG made a new 9-week weekly closing high and did it in a spike up fashion, suggesting strong buying interest has been found. With the stock now showing a successful retest of the intraweek low at 2.01 (with the previous week's low at 2.53, followed with the spike up this past week and a close above the established weekly close resistance at 2.88 (closed on Friday at 3.46), it does strongly suggest that the traders will now be exploring the upside after having established a clear bottom formation over the past 8 weeks. Weekly close resistance is found at 3.84 and then nothing until 5.00, which is a clear upside objective off of the charts alone (no fundamental news needed). Daily close support is now found at 3.05, given that is a previous high weekly close that when broken cause the stock to make this new multi-week high at 3.88. In addition, the 200-day MA is currently at 3.25, and that line is now also considered support. Probabilities favor the bulls.

MRGE generated a positive reversal week, having made a new 5-week low and then closing green. The stock closed in the middle of the week's trading range, suggesting equal chances of going below last week's low at .16 than above last week's high at .20 are in place this week. If last week's high is broken, a successful retest of the intraweek week low at .14 will occur and the buying interest will pick up. Pivotal resistance remains at .33. If broken and confirmed with a close above that level, the 200-day MA will have been broken to the upside and that should generate new buying interest. Nonetheless, this is a stock in which the traders are awaiting positive fundamental news to get involved with and until that happens, little other than "trading the small trading range" is likely to occur.

NEM generated a positive reversal week, having gone below the previous week's low and then closing green. Unfortunately for the bulls, the stock closed in the lower half of the week's trading range, suggesting a higher chance of going below last week's low at 62.27 than above last week's high at 63.88. The next pivotal intraweek support level is found at 60.84 that if broken would likely mean that a drop all the way down to 56.50-57.50 would occur. Intraweek resistance is now found at 65.78, at 69.30 and at 72.22. The monthly chart now suggests that the stock is likely to be in a $57 to $70 trading range for the next 3-6 months. The 200-day MA is currently at 61.95 and that is what the traders will be keying on this week. If the bulls are able to establish themselves above that line (two closes in a row above the line), the stock will likely first rally up to one of the levels mentioned above. If that does not happen, the probabilities are high that the $60 level will be seen. Probabilities favor the bears but the situation is volatile.

PEP generated a positive reversal week, having made a new 5-week low and the closing green and in the upper half of the week's trading range, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 147.50 will be seen this week. If that occurs, last week's intraweek low a 144.61 will become a new and pivotal support level. A break above 147.50, would suggest a rally up to 148.77 will be seen. The bulls have been able to maintain control of the stock during the past 12 weeks and as such the bulls remain with the edge though a double top on the weekly closing chart remains at 148.30. I am leaning toward liquidating the positions and taking the small profit or loss involved and get into trading other stocks as this stock has shown a general inability to generate big movement where profits of some consequence can be made or a clear key decision to liquidate can be made as well.

PGEN generated a positive reversal week, having made a new 6-week low and the closing green and near the high of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 6.90 will be seen this week. If that occurs, last week's low at 5.93 will become a double low when put together with the previous 6-month low at 5.80. Intraweek resistance is found at 7.44, which if broken would mean the 200-day MA, currently at 7.08, will have been broken as well. That MA line has been straddled for the past 8 weeks and it is the pivot point for the trend depending on which side wins the edge. With the double low at 5.80/5.93 now being extra strength support, any break of that level will give the bears full control. To the upside, the bulls need to get above 8.72 to take some measure of control. This scenario suggests that the stock will be trading sideways between 6.50 and 8.50 for the next few weeks but with a slight bias to the upside.

SNDL generated a positive reversal week, having made a new 4-week low but then closing green and in the upper half of the week's trading range, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 1.06 will be seen this week. The stock closed at the previous multi-month high at .97 that has been considered short-term pivotal for the past 14 months. Pivotal weekly close resistance is found at 1.09, which if broken next Friday would strongly suggest the correction is not only over but the chart fulfilled to the downside, meaning the traders will begin working on how much of a rally can be obtained the next few months. On a daily closing basis, pivotal resistance is found at 1.29, which if broken would suggest a minimum rally to the 1.62 level. Support should now be found at last week's low at .91. Probabilities favor the bulls.

SRUTF generated another red week close (the 4th in a row) and did close below the weekly close breakout level at .0585 (closed at .0575), meaning that the bulls need to generate a green weekly close next Friday. The stock did close in the upper half of the week's trading range, suggesting further upside above last week's high at .063 will be seen this week. One possibly strong positive did occur last week given that the stock is now showing a 5th successful intraweek retest of the 200-day MA, currently at .0479, having dropped down to .048 and then generating a green close the following day. Any daily close above .067 will generate a failure signal against the bears and likely give new ammunition to the bulls to resume the uptrend with the .16 level as the objective. Probabilities favor the bulls.

STWD made a new all-time high daily and weekly close and closed on the high of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 27.01 will be seen this week. This new high has extra meaning to it given that the previous week the stock gave a failure signal against the bulls when it closed below the previous all-time weekly closing high. The ability of the bulls to make a new all-time high after the bears had taken the edge, does suggest there are strong and positive fundamental forces supporting the stock for a new leg up. By the same token, the stock is tied in to the overall outlook of the index market and will likely mimic (to a smaller degree) what happens in the index market. The previous week's low at 25.09 is now the new and strongly pivotal support, meaning that a stop loss at 24.99 should now be used. Probabilities favor the bulls.

ZLAB generated a strong positive reversal week, having made a new 5-week intraweek low and then closing above the previous week's high and near the high of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 177.31 will be seen this week. The stock has an important week ahead given that the recent intraweek high at 181.92 is likely to be seen and broken this week and that would mean that the recent uptrend continues (likely). With the all-time weekly closing high being at 182.57, it means the bulls could make a big bull statement this coming week if able to close above that level next Friday. Intraweek support is now found at 165.90 that could/should be seen but not likely to be broken. If seen but not broken and based on the spike rally seen last week in which the stock appreciated $24 in value (from low to high), it would mean the stock would likely have a $189/$190 upside objective for this week. I do need to remind everyone that the present upside objective of one rating company is $205, and with the Chinese and U.S. markets rallying, that upside objective is viable and possibly to-be-reached within the next 2-4 weeks. Probabilities favor the bulls.


1) SNDL - Purchased at .94. No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at .97.

2) PGEN - Averaged long at 7.506 (3 mentions). Stop close only at 6.45. Stock closed on Friday at 6.82.

3) SRUTF - Averaged long at .0738 (3 mentions). No stop loss at moment. Stock closed on Friday at .0574.

4) BTZI - Purchased at .0579. Averaged long at .0935 (4 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at .0531.

5) PEP - Averaged short at 146.78 (2 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 146.41.

6) ZLAB - Averaged long at 134.64 (3 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 173.71.

7) AU - Averaged long at 26.106 (6 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 18.81.

8) NEM - Averaged long at 61.31 (3 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 62.68.

9) CNX - Averaged long at 10.876 (3 mentions). Stop loss now at 12.69 (weekly. Stock closed on Friday at 14.68.

10) STWD - Purchased at 26.10. No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 26.94.

11 ENG - Averaged long at 4.92 (2 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 3.46.

12) AAPL - Averaged short at 131.32 (2 mentions). Stop loss presently at 137.17. Stock closed on Friday at 133.11.

13) ZLAB - Purchased at 155.42. Liquidated at 159.01. Profit on the trade of $359 per 100 shares minus commissions.

14) CRON - Averaged long at 9.146 (3 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 8.88.

15) MRGE - Purchased at .28. No stop loss at present. Stock closed at .18 on Friday.


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Disclaimer

The opinions and commentaries by Mr. De Vito are not a recommendation to buy or sell, but rather a charting guideline, based on his own knowledge and experience, regarding the stocks he is following or that are brought to him by others. Mr. De Vito does not presently offer a track record of his trading experiences. No inference of success and/or failure should be assumed. The information enclosed above, regarding his background, length of trading, and experience, is correct but is not meant to suggest, state, or infer any future success in trading, based on his opinions.

The information herewith included should only be used by investors who are aware of the risk inherent in securities trading. Mr. De Vito accepts no liability whatsoever for any loss arising from any use of the information and/or comments he supplies.




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