Issue #726
Jul 18, 2021
The Oasis

Newsletter


The newsletter with chart analysis for stocks and stock indexes

Stock Indexes Analysis/Evaluation


Indexes give signals that the rally is over and that a correction has started. Chart outlook looks negative across the board.

DOW Friday closing price - 34687
SPX Friday closing price - 4327
NASDAQ Friday closing price - 14681

The indexes gave the first corrective type action seen over the past 2 months, suggesting that a top to this rally has been found and that a correction is beginning. The SPX and the NASDAQ both generated a negative reversal week from new all-time highs and the DOW put itself in a double top situation on the intraweek chart (35091/35090), if and when the index goes below this past week's low at 34647 this coming week. In addition, the DOW did generate a failure signal on the weekly closing chart, having made a new all-time high weekly close the week before but then closing below the previous all-time weekly closing high at 34777 on Friday. All indexes closed on the lows of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's lows will be seen this week.

Several fundamental things of importance did come out of this past week's action. 1) Inflation is moving higher with both the CPI and the PPI reports coming in higher than expected and 2) the big financial stocks all reported better than expected earnings and yet they all closed red and on the lows of the week, suggesting that good earnings no longer mean higher prices. Both of these factors "strongly" suggest that the bulls have run out of ammunition and that a correction is highly likely to occur.

There are still 2 more weeks ahead of important earnings reports with this coming week the DOW stocks being featured and the following week, the NASDAQ Tech stocks being the headliners. As such, it is difficult to imagine that the bears will get aggressive in their selling interest, given that any one of the big 5 stocks (AMZN, AAPL, GOOGL, NFLX, and FB) could generate a catalytic buying situation. Nonetheless, the probabilities are now starting to favor the bears given that already better-than-expected earnings reports are expected and they would have to beat those expectations by a big margin in order to be positively catalytic in an already overbought market. That event is considered to be "the exception rather than the rule", meaning that it is going to be difficult for the bulls to stop (or prevent) what already seems to have started this week.

Though the probabilities do favor more downside, the key question will be "how much more" and "is this simply a correction or the top of the bull market". Though those two questions cannot be answered at this time, there are some clear downside targets that can be counted on at this time, if and when this is confirmed as a correction in the following week or two. Using the NASDAQ as the key index (given that it has been the leader to the upside), it does have to be stated that the index has gotten down to the 100-day MA during all the corrections seen the past 12 months (4 of them). The 100-day MA is currently at 13676 and that line is now the clear downside target. In each of the 4 corrections seen, that line was reached anywhere between 10-16 days after the high of the rally was made. In the very first correction that occurred (in September of last year), the line was not reached but gotten close to. In the last 3 corrections (October, February, and April), the line was not only reached but broken. In the last 2, it was broken by at least 2% points, which means a potential intraweek downside target for the NASDAQ could be 13280 (or around there), meaning a correction of somewhere around the 11% level.

There is an intraweek pivot point in all the indexes that if broken, will bring additional selling. In the DOW 34,135, in the SPX that pivot point is at 4289, and in the NASDAQ that pivot point is at 14551. With the dichotomy between the indexes being so strong during the last few years, it is much more likely that the NASDAQ would be the first pivot point to be reached as traders will be selling the NAZ and not the DOW as the dichotomy would go in the opposite direction to what has been seen of late.

All of the above is quite clear on the charts. Whether that relays back to what the fundamental news that comes out affect the market and to what degree, is not clear at this time. Charts have not been all that dependable during this pandemic trading period.

Evidently, any new all-time highs made in the next week or two (in any of the indexes) would negate this chart evaluation. Probabilities favor the bears this week.


GOLD generated a new 4-week intraweek and weekly closing high and did close slightly in the upper half of the week's trading range, suggesting a higher probability of going above last week's high at $1834 than below last week's low of $1791. On another positive note, the stock generated another green weekly close, meaning that the failure signal against the bears given the previous week was confirmed. The higher inflation figures were positive to Gold. Nonetheless, the negative signals given on Friday in the index market, brought out some profit taking action as Gold did sell off $25 selloff from Thursday's highs. The selloff was worrisome but given that nothing was broken, it can be attributed more to day trading action than to any meaningful worry. Daily and weekly close support is found at $1796 ($1791 on an intraweek basis). Resistance on the daily chart is found at last week's high at $1834 but on the weekly chart, there is no resistance until $1848 is reached. Probabilities favor the bulls continuing the rally this week.

SILVER generated another somewhat uneventful week but did show more weakness than Gold, which is contrary to what has been happening over the past 2 months. Silver made a new 3-month weekly closing low but is still within the area of weekly close support found around the 25.70-25.90 area, meaning that nothing of consequence occurred. Nonetheless, it did close on the low of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 25.64 will be seen this week. There is some minor intraweek support at 25.60 but if broken, there is open air until 24.09 is reached. The chart does suggest Silver is heading down to that level. At 23.79 there is pivotal support that if broken, will make the chart negative. To the upside, pivotal resistance is found at 26.91. Probabilities slightly favor the bears.

OIL had an eventful bearish week in which the recent multi-week daily closing high at 76.25 was tested successfully with a close on Monday at 75.25 and then followed by 3 red daily closes in a row. Adding to that, Oil generated a 2nd sell signal on the same daily closing chart, having closed below the most recent low daily close at 72.20, likely meaning that the rally is over unless there is some positive fundamental change. Oil also generated a failure signal on the weekly closing chart, having closed on Friday at 71.81, which is convincingly below the 6+-year weekly close breakout above 74.35. All of these signals strongly suggest this rally is over for now. On a daily closing basis, the levels to watch this week are 72.20 to the upside and 71.04 (69.77 intraweek) to the downside. Both of these levels represent minor areas of resistance and support (respectively) that if broken and confirmed, are likely to generate a recovery rally (negation of the break) or new selling interest coming in. To the downside and below 69.77, there is no support found until the $65/$66 level is reached. Negation of the failure signal at 72.20, would suggest a rally back up to at least 74.45. Right now and considering what is happening in the index market, the probabilities favor Oil trading in a sideways pattern between $70 and $74 for the next 2 weeks. Nonetheless, if anything does happen, it will likely favor the bears and the downside.

DOLLAR extended its rally, having negated the previous week's negative reversal and making a new 15-week intraweek and weekly closing high. It did close near the high of the week and further upside above last week's high at 92.83 is expected to be seen. The rally this week was based on the fundamental picture that suggests that increasing inflation will force the Fed to raise interest rates sooner (rather than later) and that doing that will strengthen the Dollar. Though the rally was extended, no level of pivotal resistance was broken, meaning nothing tangibly bullish occurred. The level of intraweek resistance that would need to be broken in order for the bulls to make a statement is at 93.44 (93.02 on a weekly closing basis). Pivotal intraweek support is found at 91.75. The probabilities favor the bulls this week but like with everything else, it is likely the traders will wait until after the next 2 weeks or earnings report come out before making any big decisions. Even then, decisions in the Dollar are more likely to wait until the next inflation report comes out in 4 weeks before any decisions are made. This does suggest the Dollar will trade between 91.75 and 93.00 during this period of time.


Stock Analysis/Evaluation

CHART Outlooks

The market continues to trade in an unpredictable manner though based on the economic reports on inflation this past week, it is starting to lean to the downside. Nonetheless, there are still 2 more weeks of important earnings reports coming out that are expected to continue to show a rosy picture for the big stocks in the index market and it is highly unlikely that the traders will commit to either direction during this period of time. The small cap stocks are likely to end up being the recipients of buying interest, if and when the big stocks see selling interest. Nonetheless and especially seeing the action this past week, that is not yet happening, in fact the opposite is occurring. An inordinate and unexplainable weakness is being seen across the board and in all industries, especially in small cap stocks. That just does not make common sense. For these reasons, trading the market right now is a gamble rather than an investment opportunity.

As such, I have no new mentions this week though if I were to do any trading, I would be a buyer of small cap stocks and a seller of tech stocks. I may do some day trading this week but at this time, I have no specific stocks to offer where a day trade may work out.

Updates
Updates on Held Stocks
Closed Trades, Open Positions and Stop Loss Changes

AU has rallied 10% in value over the past 2 weeks and during the last 4 days (and on an intraweek basis) has traded above a short-term pivotal daily close resistance at 19.96. Nonetheless and in the end, they bulls were unable to generate a confirmed daily (or weekly) close above that level, meaning the bears remains with the edge. The stock closed slightly in the lower half of the weeks' trading range, suggesting a higher likelihood of going below last week's low at 19.09 than above the last week's high at 20.33 this week. Due to the failure of the bulls to make any kind of a statement, the probabilities now favor the stock testing the recent 18.18 low as a needed and required retest of that 15-month low. This is not necessarily a negative but it does mean that a rally in the stocks (and in Gold) is likely to be postponed for a few more weeks. Any break below 18.18 would now be a negative, while a break above 20.33 a positive. Probabilities favor sideways trading this week with a slight bias to the downside.

BTZI continued the downtrend after a 1-week pause, having made a new 8-month intraweek low and closing on the low of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at .038 will be seen this week. In addition, the stock closed the week at .039 and that is a double bottom on the weekly closing chart that now that it closed there, it suggests even further downside is to be seen given that it is now a triple low. The likely reason for the continued weakness is that Bitcoin also made a new 8-month weekly closing low (below 32209 - closed at 31559 on Friday), meaning that the expected bounce in the crypto currency has not yet happened and that further downside could be seen. In both cases, the stock and the crypto currency do have intraweek support below at .037 and at 28991 and that could still hold up. Nonetheless, the bears are in full control and the bulls are fighting a defensive battle with little ammunition. It does need to be stated that the stock spent 16 weeks between October and February trading between .036 and .056 and there really have been no new fundamental changes for the negative. In fact, just 2 weeks ago, the company launched a new cyber security firewall application for the cyber mining industry in which the industry is supposed to more than double in value over the next year, meaning that if anything fundamental has changed, it is for the positive and not the negative. Nonetheless, it is evident by the chart action, that the best the bulls can hope for is a sideways trading market for the next couple of months.

CNX made a new 5-month intraweek and weekly closing low and closed on the low of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 12.52 will be seen this week. The inability of the bulls to rally the stock is what caused this break to occur as there has not been any negative fundamental news come out. As such, this break of support means that the traders are going to be testing the long-term validity of the stock, given that the 200-day MA is currently at 12.51 and the 200-week MA is currently at 11.66. The 200-day MA was hit on Friday and though it is likely to be broken intraweek this week, it is unlikely that it will be broken on a daily closing basis. By the same token and thinking about intraweek, it is possible that the stock could drop down to the 200-week MA at some point this week and test the line. On a weekly closing basis, there is support at 12.00. The rating agencies still rate the stock a buy with the lowest given objective of any of the rating companies being the $16 level, meaning that this drop is all chart oriented and not any kind of weakness fundamentally. Nonetheless and like with many of the presently held stocks, this break does suggest that the bulls are not going to see any big rally anytime soon. It is going to take a few weeks at least to build the new support level. Probabilities favor the bears.

CRON made a new 10-week intraweek and weekly closing low and closed on the low of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 7.12 will be seen this week. On an intraweek basis, there are 3 supports below at 6.99, at 6.90, and at 6.63. A break of all 3 would be damaging to the chart. This entire area between 6.70 and 7.00 is one big support base on the weekly closing chart. There are 14 points of either it being support or resistance during the past 4 years and it would take a strong negative fundamental change for that level to be broken. With Marijuana being on the slate of Congress for becoming a legal product nationwide, it is hard to see a big major Cannabis company like CRON is, being able to break such a support level. A situation very similar to the one being seen now occurred in the first 7 months of 2018 that was ultimately resolved bullishly. Nonetheless, the stock traded sideways during that period for about 11 weeks and that is likely to be "mimicked" now unless the Democrats are able to pass the bills in Congress now.

DCTH did the exact same thing that so many of the other held stocks did, having made a new 2-month intraweek and weekly closing low and closing on the low of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 9.51 will be seen this week. Intraweek support is found at 9.42 (9.54 on a daily closing basis) that if broken, would open the door for a retest of the 52-week low at 8.95 (9.32 on a daily closing basis). If that does occur, the chart will be damaged as all the gains seen in the recent 2-month rally would be negated. This is definitely a pivotal week for the stock. The 200 10-minute MA is currently at 10.54. If that line is broken to the upside, it would be sign that the downtrend has ended.

ENG generated a new 7-week intraweek and weekly closing low and closed on the low of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 2.43 will be seen this week. A failure signal was given as the stock closed below the weekly support/resistance level at 2.88. Once again, this was one more example of what happened to all the small-cap held stocks this past week, and that does not make sense. Intraweek support is found at 2.01 (2.04 on a daily closing basis). Intraweek resistance is now found at 2.95, that if broken would negate this recent break.

MRGE generated a new 11-month weekly closing low and closed on the low of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at .165 will be seen this week. Important and pivotal daily and weekly close support is found at .153 that if broken, would open the door for a lot more downside. Pivotal intraweek resistance is found at .204.

NEM made a new 11-week intraweek and weekly closing low and closed on the low of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 61.37 will be seen this week. The new low also created a break of an inverted flag formation that offers a downside objective of 50.43. Nonetheless and given the weakness across the board in all industries, the chart objective is unrealistic as there are a lot of strong support levels above that objective level and more importantly, Gold does not offer that kind of downside movement. There is intraweek support at 60.85, at 60.43 and at 59.46 that will be difficult to break all of them, especially since there is decent weekly close support at the $60 level (60.47 to be exact). Pivotal resistance is now found at 64.71.

PGEN confirmed the previous week's failure signal on the weekly closing chart with another red weekly close. The stock closed near the low of the week and further downside below last week's low at 5.47 is expected to be seen this week. There is no support of consequence below until the $5 level (4.90 on an intraweek basis), which is not only a well-established support level on the weekly closing chart but is also a strong psychological support level as well. The bulls have been unable to do anything to stop this recent sell interest, meaning that it is highly likely that the 5.00 level will be reached. Resistance is now found at 6.60.

SNDL made a new 8-week intraweek and weekly closing low and closed near the low of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at .80 will be seen this week. Nonetheless, the stock got down to the 200-day MA, currently at .809, and that line has held firm and unbroken on a daily closing basis since December. There has been no negative news on the company, meaning that the probabilities are high that the line will hold up and that a rally will occur. Pivotal resistance is now found at .925, that if broken, would suggest the downside is over.

SRUTF generated another red weekly close and very near a support level at .0467 (closed on Friday at .047) that if broken, would generate additional selling interest. Like everything else, the bulls are on the defensive and looking to prevent further and longer-term damage. On a possible positive note, the stock closed slightly below the 200-day MA, currently at .048, which is a line that has not been broken to the downside since March. If broken, all the gains achieved by the bulls over the past 4 months will be erased and that just doesn't seem fundamentally possible. Pivotal intraweek resistance is found at .0558.

STWD generated a second failure signal against the bulls over the past 6 weeks and with the indexes likely to head lower, it is possible this sell signal will be more meaningful than the last one. For that to be confirmed, the stock would need to generate a confirmed daily close below 25.29. The stock did close on the low of the week and further downside below last week's low at 25.47 is expected to be seen. On an intraweek basis, support is found at 24.91. Stop loss should be placed at 24.65. Any intraweek rally above 26.57 would negate this recent weakness.

QQQ generated a negative reversal week, having made a new all-time intraweek high and then closing red and on the low of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 357.24 will be seen this week. There is pivotal intraweek support at 354.42 that if broken would generate open air below until 342.01 is reached. Resistance is now found at 362.76, which if broken would take some ammunition away from the bears. Nonetheless and in looking at the weekly chart, there is open air below until 342.01 is reached.

ZLAB generated a negative reversal week, having made a new 2-week high and then closing below the previous week's low and on the low of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 155.98 will be seen this week. Pivotal intraweek support is found at 154.57 that if broken, would suggest a drop down to 142.50 would be seen. There is no level above close by that if broken would negate the weakness seen.


1) SNDL - Purchased at .87. Averaged long at .905 (2 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at .818.

2) PGEN - Averaged long at 7.506 (3 mentions). Stop close only at 6.45. Stock closed on Friday at 5.60.

3) SRUTF - Averaged long at .0738 (3 mentions). No stop loss at moment. Stock closed on Friday at .047.

4) BTZI - Averaged long at .0935 (4 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at .039.

5) DCTH - Purchased at 10.93 and at 10.07. Averaged long at 10.50 (2 mentions). Stop loss at 9.32. Stock closed on Friday at 9.60.

6) ZLAB - Averaged long at 134.64 (3 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 156.72.

7) AU - Averaged long at 26.106 (6 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 19.57.

8) NEM - Averaged long at 61.31 (3 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 61.73.

9) CNX - Averaged long at 10.876 (3 mentions). Stop loss now at 12.69 (weekly. Stock closed on Friday at 12.55.

10) STWD - Purchased at 26.10. No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 25.58.

11 ENG - Averaged long at 4.92 (2 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 2.45.

12) QQQ - Shorted at 365.29. Stop loss at 365.67. Stock closed on Friday at 357.60.

13) CRON - Averaged long at 9.146 (3 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 8.07.

14) MRGE - Purchased at .28. No stop loss at present. Stock closed at .175 on Friday.


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Disclaimer

The opinions and commentaries by Mr. De Vito are not a recommendation to buy or sell, but rather a charting guideline, based on his own knowledge and experience, regarding the stocks he is following or that are brought to him by others. Mr. De Vito does not presently offer a track record of his trading experiences. No inference of success and/or failure should be assumed. The information enclosed above, regarding his background, length of trading, and experience, is correct but is not meant to suggest, state, or infer any future success in trading, based on his opinions.

The information herewith included should only be used by investors who are aware of the risk inherent in securities trading. Mr. De Vito accepts no liability whatsoever for any loss arising from any use of the information and/or comments he supplies.




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