Issue #725
Jul 4, 2021 | Newsletter
The newsletter with chart analysis for stocks and stock indexes |
Stock Indexes Analysis/Evaluation
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| Bulls Celebrating July 4th with New All-Time Weekly Closing Highs across the Board!
DOW Friday closing price - 34786
This past week and accross the boarde in all indexes, the bulls accomplished making new all-time weekly closing highs. They all closed on the highs of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's highs (DOW at 34821, SPX at 4355 and NASDAQ at 14738) being made this week. The news continues to be generally positive (this past week, the ISM Index report was slightly worse than expected but the Jobs report better than expected), which fails to give the bears any ammunition for any kind of meaningful correction and as such, the outlook given by the analysts is that this is to continue (economic recovery from the pandemic) for many more months. Adding to all of this, is a Fed that continues to bend backward to generate further growth by keeping interest rates down and continuing to purchase assets. Simply stated, everything is looking "rosy" as there seems to be no potential obstacles to further growth in the immediate horizon.
In spite of all of the positives mentioned above, there are some potentially negative facts that need to be considered, which are:
1) Longest bull market in history as this is the 11th year (normal bull market 3-5 years)
2) Overbought conditions across the board, even on the monthly charts
3) SPX has gone up 68% in value over the past 15 months and 30% in value over the past 6 months, which represents 4.5% increase per month during the whole period since the pandemic low occurred and 3% increase per month since February since the last red monthly close occurred (both of these scenarios are unique).
4) PE ratios in the SPX are presently at 40 (expected to be 45 this coming month) and the median is 15.
None of the above facts will necessarily have any bearing on what will happen this month but they are facts that the traders have to face every day that at some point (and likely unexpectedly so) will cause something negative-to-the-indexes to happen. By the same token, this month the next earnings quarter results start in 10 days and the earnings have to support the high PE ratios presently seen (and expected to continue to be seen and grow). Any drop back from what they are expected to be (higher than last month) will have a negative impact. In addition, presently the #1 catalyst in the market has been the inflation numbers and those come out Tuesday, July 13th. If those continue to be higher than expected, the reaction will be negative.
For this week though, there are no potential negative catalysts and the momentum is totally on the side of the bulls, suggesting that another green week and further appreciation into new all-time highs will occur.
The only index that will be watched closely this week is the DOW, given that it is the only index that still has more to do to the upside before it can be said that the bulls have clearly established a breakout. The all-time intraweek high is at 35091 and last week's high was 34821, meaning that the bulls have to push the index up at least another 270+ points higher (above last week's high) before a clear confirmation of a breakout has occurred. In addition, the index made a new all-time daily and weekly closing high on Friday (above 34777) but only by 9 points and that means the bulls cannot afford any red close on Tuesday by more than that amount and certainly cannot afford 2 red closes below that level any day of the week, especially a red weekly close next Friday.
The DOW will be the key to everything this week given that if a breakout is confirmed, all the indexes could run substantially more to the upside than what has already been seen, while a failure to confirm the breakout, will likely cause some fears that the reports the following week will not be as supportive as desired. If that is the case, some selling interest might be seen this week and possibly even cause the SPX to fall back as much as 97 points to test the previous all-time daily closing high at 4255. It is the DOW though, that will determine the week's action, starting on Monday.
Probabilities do favor the bulls.
SILVER generated a green weekly close as well as a close near the high of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 26.70 will be seen this week. The bulls did not accomplish anything special but the action last week does suggest that the bulls have a slight edge for this week in which something positive could (should) occur. On a daily closing basis, there is some short-term pivotal resistance at 26.33, which has a good chance of being broken this week. Above that level, there is open air up to 27.00 and then again open air up to 27.50. Any green weekly close next Friday would be a positive that would suggest 27.38 will be seen. Any drop below last week's low at 26.58 would be a short-term negative. Probabilities favor the bulls.
OIL generated a breakout of note, having closed on Friday above a decent and long-term established weekly close resistance between 74.34 and 74.76 (closed at 75.16). Oil closed in the upper half of the weeks' trading range, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 76.22 will be seen this week. Though the close on Friday is considered to be a breakout, it still needs to be confirmed with another close above 74.76 next Friday, as well as an intraweek rally above the established intraweek resistance at 76.90. Nonetheless, the fundamental picture does support the chart picture, meaning that further upside is likely to occur. Above 76.90, there is no intraweek resistance until 82.00 is reached. Decent intraweek resistance is found at 87.15 that is unlikely to be broken without additional fundamental positives. Presently, intraweek support is found at 64.95 but if the bulls can establish themselves this week above the $75 level with a break above 76.90, the intraweek support will then be found at 74.95. Probabilities favor the bulls but it is a pivotal week.
DOLLAR generated a new 3-month intraweek high at 92.74 but when "push came to shove" the bulls failed to "seal the deal", having closed on Friday at 92.23, which is only $.01 cent above the previous week's close. Using the daily chart, the Dollar also made a new 3-month daily closing high but then on Friday closed at the previous one (also at 92.22), meaning that nothing was confirmed. By the same token, the close this coming Tuesday will help clarify the situation, given that a green daily close will suggest the bulls have a bit of extra ammunition but a red close on Monday will mean the opposite. It is evident that the chart is "leaning" in favor of the bulls but a "lean" is all it is as the bulls were not able to make any kind of dependable signal last week. It is interesting to note that the Dollar closed at the midpoint of the week's trading range but the bears were able to generate a negative reversal day on Friday to accomplish that, meaning that there is a very slightly higher probability of going above last week's low at 91.70 than above last week's high at 92.74. Whichever does occur this week, will give a decided edge to one or the other (bulls or bears). In my humble opinion, I do believe the bears have a slight edge this week.
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Stock Analysis/Evaluation
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CHART Outlooks
With the indexes still in a fragile situation and the outlook still uncertain, there is little that can be done in the general market regarding trading. Nonetheless, there is one industry (Oil) that has reached a level of resistance that is strongly pivotal and that has a long history (15 years) of being in place. The bulls are in control at this time but the level of resistance is so clearly defined that the bulls will have a tough time breaking it and as such, it offers clearly defined and positive risk/reward ratios with a decent probability ratings with short positions in Oil industry stocks. Here is the one I am mentioning.
XOM Friday Closing Price - 64.66
XOM is a stock that has been in a downtrend for the past 7+ years, from a high 104.76. The downtrend became a "runaway freight train" to the downside 16 months ago when it broke an established weekly close support at 67.49 and fell down to 32.62 (based on a weekly close), a low that was made 8 months ago. Evidently that level (around $32.50) was determined to be a bottom and the stock has since bounced up by doubling in price. Nonetheless, the 200-week MA, currently at 66.11, is a line that has been in place for the past 6 years, determining that the stock continues to be in a bear market though a bottom to that bear market has been determined. As such and in order to break this MA line and establish that the downtrend has ended and a bull trend has started, the stock needs to break that MA line, has to generate a confirmed weekly close above 67.49, and more importantly, oil has to break its strongly established resistance around the $75 level. All possible but not likely to occur.
XOM closed on the high of the week and further upside above last week's high at 64.93 is expected to be seen. The MA line is at 66.11 and likely to be reached this week due to the strength seen in Oil and the stock last week. With the 67.49 level (on a weekly closing basis) a very important and pivotal resistance line, the risk ratio is clearly defined and small (around $2 per share).
As far as the potential profit to be made, XOM shows some recently established weekly close support between 53.08 (previous multi-week high weekly close) and 55.57 (most recent low weekly close of some consequence). As such, the downside objective is a drop down to somewhere in that area. This suggests a trade that offers about a $2 risk ratio and a $10-$12 potential profit.
Sales of XOM above 66.00 and using a 67.59 stop loss (based on a weekly close) and having a $55 downside objective will offer a 5.5-1 risk/reward ratio. My rating on the trade is a 3 (on a scale of 1-5 with 5 being the highest).
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Updates
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| Monthly & Yearly Portfolio Results
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Closed Trades, Open Positions and Stop Loss Changes
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Status of account for 2007: Profit of $9,758 per 100 shares after losses and commissions were subtracted.
Status of account for 2020: Loss of $16,684 per 100 shares after losses and commissions were subtracted. Status of account for 2020, as of 6/1 Profit of $34,228 using 100 shares per mention (after commissions & losses) Closed out profitable trades for June per 100 shares per mention (after commission)
ZLAB (long) $649 (3 day trades long)
Closed positions with increase in equity above last months close minus commissions. CAT (short) $256 Total Profit for June, per 100 shares and after commissions $905 Closed out losing trades for June per 100 shares of each mention (including commission)
AAPL (short) $255
AU (long) $79 AU (long) $61 Closed positions with decrease in equity below last months close plus commissions. NONE Total Loss for March, per 100 shares, including commissions $390 Open positions in profit per 100 shares per mention as of 6/30
STWD (long) $7
Open positions with increase in equity above last months close.
CNX (long) $12
ENG (long) $138 Total $188 Open positions in loss per 100 shares per mention as of 6/30
AAPL (short) $1126
Open positions with decrease in equity below last months close.
PGEN (long) $24 Total $7908 Status of trades for month of June per 100 shares on each mention after losses and commission subtracted.
Loss of $7,205
Status of account/portfolio for 2021, as of 6/30
Profit of $27,023 per 100 shares.
AAPL generated a new all-time high weekly close at 139.96 (above the previous one at 139.07). Nonetheless, the bulls are still short of the all-time daily closing high as that is at 143.16, meaning that the breakout still needs further upside action to be confirmed. By the same token, the negative Head & Shoulders formation that was driving the bears to short, has been totally negated as the 134.82/138.32 levels (where the right shoulder was on the daily and weekly closing chart) was broken. Evidently, this negation and breakout were the direct result of the indexes rallying and making new highs, suggesting that it is not the stock itself rallying but the market overall that brought on these positive actions. This action does negate the possibility of a drop down to the $93 level (which was in play before this occurred) but it does not negate some weakness still being seen based on the company's fundamental picture. The stock did close on the high of the week, meaning further upside above last week's high at 140.00 is expected to be seen this week. The probabilities of a rally up to the all-time intraweek high at 145.09 are high. As such, I am planning to cover the short positions on any dip on Tuesday and then re-short the stock as the 145.09 level is neared (or reached). I still believe the stock will see some weakness of note in the near future. Daily close support is found at 134.84. A daily close below that level would negate this breakout. Probabilities favor the bulls but then again, the stock is more likely to follow the index market than do anything based on its own chart.
AU generated a positive reversal week, having made a 3-month intraweek low at 18.12 and then closing green and near the high of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 19.20 is expected to be seen this week. The stock did have decent and well established support in this area with intraweek support at 18.04 and weekly close support at 18.77 and both of those were tested successfully the past 2 weeks, meaning that the bears need new fundamental negatives to take the stock down further. As such, the next couple of weeks should be a period of recovery. By the same token, the short-term bullish picture that was in place some 5 weeks ago has changed and been replaced with a sideways market that is not likely to accomplish anything bullish of note to the upside. The upside objective of this recovery period is the 24.00 level and reaching that level could take anywhere from 3-6 weeks. The first level the bulls have to get above is the $20 demilitarized zone (based on a daily close). There is established daily close resistance at 19.87. Probabilities are high that level will be reached this week, though not likely more than that. Intraweek support remains at 18.04/18.12, which based on what happened this past week should not be reached and much less broken. Probabilities favor the bulls this week. Probabilities favor the bulls for another green weekly close next Friday. BTZI continued to show weakness as another new 5-month intraweek and weekly closing low occurred. The stock closed in the lower half of the week's trading range, suggesting further downside below last week's low at .043 will be seen this week. The next level of established intraweek support is found between .036 and .037 (.0394 on a weekly closing basis). Pivotal intraweek resistance is now found at .055 (.0545 on a weekly closing basis). It is important to note that Bitcoin did generate a positive reversal week and a close in the upper half of the week's trading range, meaning that some recovery should be seen this week and that is likely to help BTZI. It is evident that at this time and with the failure signal against the bulls given the previous week, the stock is now likely to trade sideways with perhaps a very slight bearish tinge. By the same token, some recovery back up to the .055 level is likely to occur over the next couple of weeks. Probabilities slightly favor the bulls this week. CNX generated an uneventful inside week but the stock did close near the low of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 13.31 will be seen this week. The stock has been a total "yo-yo" for the past 14 weeks with the traders at a loss to generate any clear direction. Nonetheless, this coming week could be important given that a double low has been built at 12.87/12.91 and if the bears fail to get down to that level this week and the stock turns around the following week to the upside, the double low will be tested successfully and the chart fulfilled to the downside. If that occurs, the bulls will get some new ammunition to attempt to resume the uptrend. Chart suggests the stock could get down as low as 13.13 this week and then a turn-around begin. Any movement down to the 12.87/12.91 level would generate a triple low that would likely be broken. If the stock does go below last week's low. The 14.18 level will become pivotal resistance. Probabilities favor the bulls. CRON generated a negative reversal week, having gone above the previous week's high but then closing red and near the low of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 8.27 will be seen this week. Nonetheless, the action this past week was not indicative of anything as the stock has been trading within a bullish flag formation for the past 5 weeks and unless the stock gets below 8.11, the flag will remain in place. The stock has maintained itself above the 200-day MA, currently at 8.38, for the past 6 weeks and as such, the probabilities favor the bulls. Nonetheless, a break below 8.11 in conjunction with 2 daily closed below the MA line will be seen as a negative. Pivotal resistance is found at 9.12 and if broken, would give the bulls new ammunition. Probabilities are evenly matched this week. ENG had a very uneventful inside week with a close in the middle of the week's trading range, suggesting an equal chance of going above last week's high at 3.68 than below last week's low at 2.85. By the same token, the bulls were able to keep the stock above the weekly close support level at 2.88, meaning they maintain the edge in their favor. Pivotal intraweek support is found at 2.53 and pivotal resistance is at 3.88. Any action within those parameters at this time is relatively meaningless. Probabilities slightly favor the bulls this week. MAS generated a second green weekly close in a row but the bears maintained their slight edge given that the stock still closed below the weekly close resistance at 58.70, having closed on Friday at 58.73. Nonetheless, the stock did close near the high of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 59.36 will be seen this week. Intraweek resistance is decent and clearly defined at 60.16. A break above that level (especially if above 60.30) would give the bulls' new ammunition to attempt to resume the uptrend. The previous week's low at 57.22 is now pivotal support that if broken would further weaken the chart. This is a stock that was given a buy mention by Goldman Sachs this week with an upside target of $73. Probabilities favor the bulls. MRGE generated an uneventful week but with a green weekly close and a close near the high of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at .202 will be seen this week. The selling pressure seen the previous 12 weeks has abated and some recovery is likely to occur given that the bears have been able to prevent further downside and 2 green weekly closes have occurred. Pivotal intraweek resistance is found at .2157, which if broken, would offer open air above up to .37, at least based on the weekly chart. Nonetheless, this is a stock in which the traders are awaiting positive fundamental news to get involved with and until that happens, little other than "trading the small trading range" is likely to occur. NEM generated a positive reversal week, having made a new 9-week intraweek low and then going above the previous week's high and closing green and near the high of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 64.11 will be seen this week. This positive reversal seems to be indicative given that it not only reversed positively but did go above the previous week's high. In addition, the previous week the stock has generated a positive reversal but it was negated early in the week when the stock went below the previous week's low. Such action should have brought new selling interest but instead it created a new and stronger positive reversal week, strongly suggesting that negative news has to come out for the bears to regain the edge they have had the last few weeks. The stock has open air above up to 65.78, suggesting that will be the upside objective for this week. Evidently, any new low below last week's low at 61.63 will be considered a strong negative. Probabilities favor the bulls. PEP made a new all-time intraweek and weekly closing high and closed in the upper half of the week's trading range, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 149.78 will be seen this week. This was a strong bull statement given that just 3 weeks ago, a sell signal on the daily closing chart was generated, meaning that the bulls were able to not only negate a negative but stimulate a strong positive. This breakout still needs to be confirmed this week but the probabilities do favor that happening, meaning that looking for an exit point from the short trade is the thing to do. Any daily close below 148.30 would generate a failure signal. I will be looking to cover the shorts this week and hopefully around 148.30. PGEN generated an uneventful week but did close red and near the low of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 6.27 will be seen this week. The bears have been trying to break down the stock for the past 9 weeks but they have so far been unable to do so. On the opposite side, the bulls have not been able to make any positive statements either, suggesting that slowly-but-surely, the bears continue to gain more and more of an edge and that the probabilities are now slightly favoring the bears. One thing the chart does suggest is that this week something more tangible is likely to occur (bear win or bull gain), meaning it is looking like a short-term pivotal week. Intraweek support is found at 5.80/5.94 that if broken, would give the bears control. Any rally above 7.01 would give an edge to the bulls. Probabilities slightly favor the bears. SNDL generated an uneventful inside week but did close near the low of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at .89 will be seen this week. The 200-day MA, currently at .78, is the present magnet. That line was tested successfully a few weeks ago and off of that successful retest of the line, a rally up to 1.49. A drop down to that level is likely to be seen this week, but is also likely to hold up and generate a rally again. How high that rally would be will answer a lot of questions. For now though, the probabilities continue to favor the bears this week. The 1.06 level is pivotal resistance that if broken, would suggest that a strong base of support has been built. Probabilities favor the bears this week but overall, the stock looks supported for the longer term. SRUTF made a new 7-week low at .046 but then rallied to close near the high of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at .0558 will be seen this week. On a negative note though, the stock did confirm the failure signal against the bulls given last week, having generated another red weekly close below the breakout point at .0585. On the other side of the coin, the stock did get down to the 200-day MA, currently at .0479, and generated a positive reversal day on Friday, meaning that if the stock gets above Friday's high at .0532 on Tuesday, a successful retest of that level will have occurred. Short-term pivotal daily close resistance is found at .0574, which if broken would suggest the correction is over. Any weekly close above .0585 would suggest a rally is occurring. In looking at the weekly chart over the past 3 years, it is evident that a rounded bottom has been forming and rounded bottoms become strong support levels from which a major rally usually follows. For now though, last week's low a .046 does seem to now be the likely low for the correction. The .0585 level (based on a weekly close) will once again be a pivot point that when broken, should bring in some consistent buying interest. Probabilities favor the bulls. STWD generated an uneventful inside week but did close red and near the low of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 25.97 will be seen this week. The lack of follow through to the upside as well as the red action seen in spite of indexes going higher was likely because the company announced a private offering of $400 million unsecured bonds at 3.65% interest rates to be settled on July 14th. The bond offering is to be used to improve green projects in its properties. It is a long term positive but a short-term negative while the bond offering gets settled. The thing to watch this week is the previous all-time daily closing high at 25.87 and the previous all-time weekly closing high at 26.01. Evidently, two closes in a row below those levels would change the chart picture from bullish to sideways. A rally above the present all-time intraweek high at 27.01 would give the bulls reason to step up and buy more. Probabilities favor a sideways trend for this week and then renewal of the uptrend the following week. ZLAB generated a 2nd green week in a row but the bears were able to keep the stock from breaking the pivotal daily close resistance at 180.00, having closed on Thursday at 178.32 and then generating a red close on the daily chart on Friday. The bulls did have momentum and the chart in its favor and it was expected the bulls would be able to break that resistance and continue the attempt to make new all-time highs. That did not happen and it was a slight negative. Nonetheless, the stock did close in the upper half of last week's trading range and further upside above last week's high at 178.91 is expected to be seen this week. Evidently and because of the now successful retest of the 180.00 daily close resistance on Friday, the bulls need to go higher right from the start of the week. There is pivotal intraweek support at 170.00, which if broken would suggest the bulls have failed and some new selling interest would be seen. On an intraweek basis, the bulls need to get above 181.92 and if that occurs, new buying interest would be seen and the probabilities of a new all-time high being made would increase exponentially. Probabilities still favor the bulls but not as much as it favored them last week. I do want to give you the price projections of the 13 analysts that are following the stock: The 13 analysts offering 12-month price forecasts for Zai Lab Ltd have a median target of $206.60, with a high estimate of $263 and a low estimate of $174.56. The median estimate represents at +17.45 increase from the last price of 175.90.
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1) SNDL - Purchased at .94. No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at .90. 2) PGEN - Averaged long at 7.506 (3 mentions). Stop close only at 6.45. Stock closed on Friday at 6.42. 3) SRUTF - Averaged long at .0738 (3 mentions). No stop loss at moment. Stock closed on Friday at .0532. 4) BTZI - Purchased at .0579. Averaged long at .0935 (4 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at .0471. 5) PEP - Averaged short at 146.78 (2 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 148.91. 6) ZLAB - Averaged long at 134.64 (3 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 175.90. 7) AU - Averaged long at 26.106 (6 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 19.08. 8) NEM - Averaged long at 61.31 (3 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 63.36. 9) CNX - Averaged long at 10.876 (3 mentions). Stop loss now at 12.69 (weekly. Stock closed on Friday at 13.51. 10) STWD - Purchased at 26.10. No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 26.21. 11 ENG - Averaged long at 4.92 (2 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 3.23. 12) AAPL - Averaged short at 131.32 (2 mentions). Stop loss presently at 137.17. Stock closed on Friday at 139.96. 13) ZLAB - Purchased at 173.76. Liquidated at 178.36. Profit on the trade of $460 per 100 shares. 14) CRON - Averaged long at 9.146 (3 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 8.35. 15) MRGE - Purchased at .28. No stop loss at present. Stock closed at .19 on Friday. 16) MAS - Purchased at 58.60. Stop loss at 57.12. Stock closed on Friday at 58.73.
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The opinions and commentaries by Mr. De Vito are not a recommendation to buy or sell, but rather
a charting guideline, based on his own knowledge and experience, regarding the stocks he is following or
that are brought to him by others. Mr. De Vito does not presently offer a track record of his trading experiences.
No inference of success and/or failure should be assumed. The
information enclosed above, regarding his background, length of trading, and experience, is correct
but is not meant to suggest, state, or infer any future success in trading, based on his opinions. The information herewith included should only be used by investors who are aware of the risk inherent in securities trading. Mr. De Vito accepts no liability whatsoever for any loss arising from any use of the information and/or comments he supplies. |
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