Issue #728
Aug 8, 2021
The Oasis

Newsletter


The newsletter with chart analysis for stocks and stock indexes

Stock Indexes Analysis/Evaluation


Bulls able to turn things around after Jobs report comes out better than expected.

DOW Friday closing price - 35208
SPX Friday closing price - 4436
NASDAQ Friday closing price - 15109

The bulls ended up the winners in what is likely to end up being a decisive week. All indexes generated new intraweek and weekly closing highs and closing near (or on) the highs of the week, suggesting the trend up is likely to continue this coming week (and likely for the next few weeks). More importantly, the first 3 weeks or earnings reports are out, the 2 most important economic reports for the month are out, and the charts show no resistance levels above, meaning that there seems to be nothing in the immediate future that can be a negative catalyst to stop the momentum that has been seen in the indexes all year. Simply stated, the bears have no ammunition in their arsenal.

Nonetheless, there is one fact that needs to be mentioned and that is that on 6 out of the last 10 years, there has been a decent to perhaps strong dip in September that sometimes (about 50% of the time) started in late August. On the other 4 years, a slight dip (or at best sideways action) occurred. Last year, the correction started the last week of August and it turned out to be 10.7%. In 2019, the correction started the 2nd week of September and it was 6.5% correction. In 2018, it started the last week of August and it was a 28% correction and in 2017, it started the last week of August and the correction was only 3%. This seasonal tendency does suggest that the probabilities do not favor the indexes seeing much upward action occurring for the next 2 months. It must be mentioned that in every single case during the past 10 years, this occurred with the index making new highs for the year in this same period of time, such as what happened this past week. Having said that, the fact remains that none of the indexes have any resistance levels above, meaning that there is no way to determine how much farther they will go up during the next couple of weeks before the seasonal correction occurs.

There is one economic report left that could be somewhat catalytic and that is the CPI number (inflation report) that is due to be released Wednesday morning. Expectations are that it will come out at .4%. This is lower than last month when it came out at .9% and as such, if there is a higher number it could be negatively catalytic. Otherwise, there is nothing scheduled that could give ammunition to either side. As such, the bulls definitely have the edge.

Given that there is no resistance above, the only thing that the traders will be watching is whether weakness is seen and how much. The previous all-time high daily closes are close enough to be in play this week, meaning that is going to be important all week. In the DOW that level is at 35,144, in the SPX that level is at 4422 and in the NASDAQ it is at 15,125. Given that this year previous all-time high daily closes have been broken over and over again with impunity, if failure signals are given the traders will turn their attention to daily closes where a sell signal will need to be generated in order to give added interest to the signals. In the case of the DOW, a daily close below 34792, in the SPX a daily close below 4387, and in the NASDAQ a daily close below 14959 would need to happen to give the bears any confidence of having started a possible correction. Simply stated, "two" negative signals now need to happen for it to mean anything. I mention this as information to store in your minds. I certainly do not expect this to happen at this time but then again, the probabilities that something will happen (or start to happen) within the next 3-4 weeks is high, meaning you I am giving you the chart tools needed to realize when a correction has started.

For this week and at this time, there is no other information I can give you. The bulls have the edge and there is nothing at this time that can be used to anticipate anything else other than further upside. Probabilities favor the bulls.


GOLD dropped $45 in price (2.5%) on Friday off of the Jobs report that suggests that the economy is doing well enough that the Fed can consider raising interest rates a bit sooner than expected. This would mean a stronger dollar and more interest in stocks and Bonds than in tangible inflation products such as commodities and precious metals. The fall did generate not only a failure signal but a sell signal as well, having closed below a previous important low weekly close support at $1796 and that when broken generated a rally, but also below the lowest weekly close in 4 months at $1769. Given that this break was based on fundamentals (or at least fundamentals as evaluated by the traders), it is a tangible big negative that will now require some new reports to the contrary of what the Jobs report said on Friday to generate any new buying of importance. Those same reports will not come out for another 4 weeks, suggesting that Gold is likely to languish (trade sideways) or trade with a negative bias until then. There is one report this week that could negate the information that came out on Friday and that is the CPI number on Wednesday. It is expected to be .4% and if higher, it will give the bulls some ammunition. As such, it is possible that the break seen on Friday's weekly closing chart will not be confirmed next Friday. Nonetheless, the probabilities do not favor that happening. It is important to note that on Friday's weakness, the "daily" close support at $1763 was not broken, meaning that it is probable that on Monday and likely on Tuesday, Gold will generate a green daily close as the traders await Wednesday's CPI numbers. By the same token and for the next 2 days, the $1783 level (on a daily closing basis) will be resistance, meaning the likely/possible recovery at the beginning of the week will be minor in nature. I have no other comment on the chart at this time given that the inflation number on Wednesday is short-term pivotal. Nonetheless, I will update the chart on the message board after the report comes out.

SILVER generated a new 8-month weekly closing low (a bit worse than what happened to Gold), meaning that Silver remains the weak sister among the precious metals. Everything else stated above in the Gold evaluation also applies in the same way to Silver, meaning that I do expect some green on Monday and Tuesday. Nonetheless, the Silver chart does show some minor to decent weekly close support at 23.84 and given that it closed on Friday at 24.32, it can be said that the downside for at least the next 4 weeks (if not longer) is going to be limited. To the upside, the 25.55 level is now going to be pivotal resistance that is unlikely to be broken without a positive-to-the-precious-metals fundamental chart. In fact, it is now doubtful that without that change, that Silver can get back above 24.98. This suggests that for the next 4 weeks (if the inflation report on Friday is not suggesting inflation is running rampant), Silver will trade in a $1.15 trading range between 23.84 and 24.98.

OIL had a big 8.6% trading range week between high and low, which does support the bears. In the end, Oil generated a sell signal on the weekly closing chart, having closed below the most recent low weekly close at 71.81 (closed on Friday at 68.25) as well as a 2nd successful retest of the multi-year high daily close at 76.25 with high daily closes at 75.25 and at 73.93, meaning that for now the rally is over and the bears have the edge. Oil closed on the low of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's close at 67.61 will be seen this week. The bulls still have the midterm edge, having kept Oil above the pivotal weekly close support level at 66.09. Nonetheless, that level is likely to be tested this week and if broken (on a weekly closing basis), it will open the door for an intraweek drop all the way down to $60 to occur. On an intraweek basis, the support is found at 65.21 and on a daily closing basis, at 66.42. As far as resistance is concerned, there is some minor but likely short-term pivotal resistance at 69.09, which if broken would likely ease some of the sell pressure that was seen at the end of the week. Probabilities favor the bears.

DOLLAR generated an uneventful inside week and with a close just $.02 below the previous week's close, meaning that neither the bulls nor the bears were able to give any indication of what is to come this week. By the same token, the bulls have had the edge during the last 2 months, meaning that probabilities continue to favor them. The Dollar has built a bullish flag formation with the flagpole being the 89.53 to the high seen 3 weeks ago at 93.19. A breakout of the flag (a break above 93.19) would offer an objective of 95.44. Established and now likely pivotal intraweek support is found at 91.78. Probabilities favor the bulls.


Stock Analysis/Evaluation

CHART Outlooks

I have no new mentions this week given the unexpected reversal of the indexes this week, which was confusing as it puts things back into bull scenario. The move into new highs has to be confirmed this week before it can be believed and even then, the seasonal tendency to correct in September will hang over the market to the point that whatever upside can be made over the next couple of weeks could be very limited.

In addition, the CPI number (inflation) comes out on Wednesday AM and that is a number that could surprise (in either direction) and change things in an unpredictable way.

Updates
Updates on Held Stocks
Closed Trades, Open Positions and Stop Loss Changes

AU received some negative fundamental news this past week with the company announcing that they were closing one of their most profitable South African mines and likely for the rest of the year. The stock made a new 16-month intraweek and weekly closing low and also closed below the 200-week MA, currently at 17.19. The fact that this drop was based on a fundamental piece of news to the company and that Gold also received negative news as well, suggests that there is not going to be a recovery of any consequence in the near future. There is one report on Wednesday (CPI Number) that if higher than expected (above .4%) could negate some of the weakness and generate a bit of a rally but the fact is that the stock no longer has the potential for a bullish outlook at this time and probably won't have for another 6 months. As such, liquidation seems to be the only choice available with the only question being "at what price". It is highly likely that a retest of the MA line at 17.19 will occur on Monday or Tuesday prior to the report. It is also possible (perhaps even likely) that a retest of the recent daily closing low at 18.33 (from which the break occurred) will occur as well. No other upside level is likely to be seen unless the inflation report is much higher than anticipated. If it is better, the $20 level could be seen. Nonetheless, it is highly doubtful that much higher prices will occur until the mine is re-opened. To the downside, there is some intraweek support at 16.00 (last week's low was 16.04), again at 13.70 and decent to strong at 12.67. Probabilities favor the bears.

BTZI generated another green weekly close (3rd in a row) and did move up to test the 200-day MA, currently at .077, with a high last week at .08. The stock closed in the upper half of the week's trading range and further upside above last week's high at .08 is expected to be seen. It should be noted that the stock did generate an intraweek drop down to .0516 on Friday and then turned around to close unchanged at .071, meaning that if the stock goes above Friday's high on Monday, a successful retest of the intraweek support at .05 will have occurred, giving the bulls some added ammunition. It also needs to be mentioned that Bitcoin did generate a buy signal on the weekly closing chart the week before that was confirmed on Friday with another green close. The daily closing chart also now shows 2 buy signals having been given, meaning that Bitcoin is likely to continue moving higher, which is of benefit to the company given that they own 1000 Bitcoin miners. In the stock, there is intraweek resistance at .08, daily close resistance at the MA line at .077 and weekly close resistance at .082 (previous low weekly close that when broken took the stock down below .04). A close above those levels this week would offer open air to the .10 or even perhaps to .12 level. At the .12 level is where some resistance of consequence is seen. Probabilities favor the bulls.

CNX generated a failure signal on the weekly closing chart, having closed on Friday below a previous high weekly close on consequence at 12.00. The close was only below support by $.11 cents and more importantly, the 200-week MA, currently at 11.63 remained unbroken but if another red close occurs next Friday (and below the MA), the chart outlook will change indicatively so. The stock is in ore business and commodities are presently and fundamentally under sell pressure so the CPI number on Wednesday is of importance to the stock. Evidently, if the stock generates a green close next Friday at least 10 points above 12.00, much of the sell pressure will be eliminated. The stock did close near the low of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 11.58 will be seen this week. To the upside, a rally above 13.06 will give the edge back to the bulls. Probabilities do slightly favor the bears this week.

CRON generated an uneventful inside week but did close in the upper half of the week's trading range, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 7.61 will be seen this week. The company did report earnings on Friday and they were substantially better than expected (+$.15 versus expected -$.09). Nonetheless, the better than expected earnings did not generate any kind of reaction. On the other side of the coin, the stock has been under sell pressure during the past 7 months but a double bottom has now been built over the past 2 months that suggests that the bears have run out of ammunition. If the bulls can get above the high made the previous week at 7.76, the double bottom will be confirmed and with a positive earnings report, a recovery rally of some consequence is likely to occur. Above 7.66 there is no resistance until the 8.51/8.64 level is reached (previous intraweek high and 200-day MA). Evidently, any drop back down to the double bottom at 6/95/7.02 will be a negative. Probabilities favor the bulls.

DCTH generated an uneventful inside week but did close near the high of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 10.47 will be seen this week. The stock has built a bullish flag formation with the flagpole being the move up from 8.80 to 10.63 and the flag is the action seen the 6 days with a low at 9.58. A break above the flag top at 10.63 will offer an objective of 11.41. By the same token, there is no intraweek resistance above 10.62 until the 12.20/12.24 level is reached, suggesting the bulls could see a nice 19% run up over the next week or two. Pivotal support is now found at 9.58. Probabilities favor the bulls.

ENG made a new 9-month intraweek low but then on Friday it generated a positive reversal rally to close in the upper half of the week's trading range, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 2.64 will be seen this week. The positive reversal was based on some fundamental news that was released on Friday morning (click link here) that had nothing but positive information involved regarding changes in the company to promote itself in a bigger way from here on in. The best piece of news in this change is that it was announced that in July, $4.9 million of debt was forgiven, meaning that "it leaves the company with very little debt and a very healthy balance sheet". There is now a potential for a double bottom on the intraweek chart at 2.01/1.95, if and when the stock does get above 2.64 this week. Minor intraweek resistance is found between 2.71 and 2.79 and on an weekly closing basis, at 2.88. If those levels are broken, there is no intraweek resistance until 3.80 is reached. The 200-week MA is currently at 3.51. A confirmed close above that line will change the chart to a short-term bullish scenario. Due to the positive news, the 2.28 level on an intraweek basis should now be support. Probabilities favor the bulls.

LNG generated an uneventful inside week but did end up with a red weekly close and with the indexes all having made new all-time intraweek and weekly closing highs, it can be said the bears won the week. The fact remains that the stock now shows 2 successful retests on the daily closing high at 89.48 and the bulls had every opportunity to negate that this week but failed. On an intraweek basis, the stock shows pivotal resistance at 87.16 and pivotal support at 83.15. Whichever of those levels get broken will be indicative. Stock closed on Friday at 84.64.

MRGE generated a positive reversal week, having made a new 1-year weekly closing low and then closing green and near the high of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at .176 will be seen this week. It is important to note that the bulls did accomplish something as the stock closed on Friday above the .15 level that was pivotal daily close resistance 16 months ago that held up for 4 months before being broken. That level was broken the previous Friday and was not negated until this past Wednesday. That negation has now been confirmed with 3 days in a row of closure above that level. It is not a big sign but at this price and with the amount of drop the stock has seen without any negative fundamental changes, it does suggest that the worst is now over. Pivotal daily close resistance is found at .175 and weekly close resistance is found at .17. Probabilities favor the bulls.

NEM generated a new 4-month weekly closing low and closed on the low of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 59.16 will be seen this week. Nonetheless and in spite of Gold making a new 6-week intraweek low, the bears were unable to break the intraweek low seen 3 weeks ago at 59.03, meaning that this stock continues to be the best acting Gold stock around. On an intraweek basis, there is additional support at 58.29 and given that the inflation number comes out on Wednesday, probabilities favor some rally being seen at the beginning of the week. The stock gapped down on Friday between 61.12 and 60.44 and since there was no news to support the gap, it is likely the gap will be closed sometime between Monday and Tuesday. Nonetheless and unless the inflation numbers come in much higher than anticipated and the bulls are able to get above 63.45 (now pivotal intraweek resistance), probabilities do favor further downside with a downside objective of 56.55. It is likely that for the rest of the year, the stock will trade between 56.55 and the 200-day MA, currently at 62.78. Simply stated, this stock should also be liquidated this week if the inflation report does not stimulate some indicative movement to the upside.

PGEN generated a 2nd uneventful inside week with a close near the high of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 5.71 will be seen this week. Nonetheless, the company reports earnings on Monday after the close and that is likely to be a catalyst for movement. The earnings are expected to be at -$.12 cents (last quarter it was -$.11 cents), meaning that it is not expected that the earnings will be a strong catalyst this quarter. The company is more dependent on guidance on the expectation of it clinical trials on the products they are working on than on earnings, which at this time are not expected to grow or shrink by any unexpected amount. The daily chart does suggest there will be a slight bias to the upside this week with the 6.20 level as the objective. Intraweek support is now found at 5.42 and pivotal at 5.04. Probabilities very slightly favor the bulls this week.

QQQ made a new all-time intraweek high this past week at 369.91 but unlike the NASDAQ the bulls failed to make a new all-time weekly close, having fallen short by $.15 cents. This same situation applies to the stock as with the index, meaning the bulls have the edge but the upside is likely limited. The stock did close in the upper half of the week's trading range and further upside is expected to be seen this week. The only resistance that can be imagined is the $370 demilitarized zone, meaning that a stop loss should be placed at 370.35. Other than that, I have no other comment at this time. The position shorted on Friday is in profit right now and the stop loss mentioned keeps the potential loss to a minimum, meaning there is no reason to look to cover the short at this time unless the stop loss is hit.

SNDL generated a very uneventful inside week and a close that did not clarify anything. The stock has been in this narrow trading range between .7637 and .8888 for the past 16 days without any indicative action occurring. The company reports earnings this week on Thursday after the close and that is likely to be a catalyst for movement. Probabilities do slightly favor the bulls given that the stock has been trading at support (200-day MA) for the past 3 weeks with the bears unable to break the line, meaning that the bears need negative news to break that important line. A break above or below the levels mentioned above would be indicative.

SRUTF made a new 6-month intraweek and weekly closing low this past week and closed in the lower half of the week's trading range, suggesting further downside below last week's low at .0357 will be seen this week. The well-established intraweek support at .038 has been broken but the weekly close support at .0376 has not, meaning that the bears have not yet made an indicative statement of weakness. By the same token, there seems to be no interest in buying the stock at this time, meaning that this stock needs to be stored aside and kept until something new of consequence occurs. A weekly close below .0357 would be indicative of new weakness. Pivotal resistance remains at .0485 on a daily closing basis.

ZLAB generated a green weekly close after 4 weeks in a row of red weekly closes. The stock closed in the upper half of the weeks' trading range, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 152.69 will be seen this week. The move above the previous week's high has made the previous week's low at 110.29 into a spike low bottom that is unlikely to be seen again without a negative fundamental change. The company reports earnings on Monday after the close and it could be catalytic. Chart-wise and as it stands right now (without news or if the earnings are not surprising in any way), the probabilities favor the stock trading sideways for the next 3 months.The bulls were able to close the stock above the 200-day MA, currently at 144.53, on Tuesday and it was followed with a close above the line each and every day thereafter, suggesting that line will now be daily close support once again. There is absolutely no intraweek resistance above until the $160 level is reached, suggesting that is the upside target for this week. Nonetheless and unless the bulls are able to get above 163.94, the probabilities will favor a drop back down to the MA thereafter. As such, taking profits above the $160 level and buying back around the $144 level should be considered. Chart damage did occur with the drop all the way down to $110 without any negative news to have supported the drop, meaning that for now and until new fundamental news comes out, the stock is likely to trade between $125 and $170 for the rest of the year.


1) SNDL - Purchased at .87. Averaged long at .905 (2 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at .804.

2) PGEN - Averaged long at 7.506 (3 mentions). Stop close only at 6.45. Stock closed on Friday at 5.56.

3) SRUTF - Averaged long at .0738 (3 mentions). No stop loss at moment. Stock closed on Friday at .04.

4) BTZI - Averaged long at .0935 (4 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at .071.

5) DCTH - Purchased at 10.93 and at 10.07. Averaged long at 10.50 (2 mentions). Stop loss at 9.32. Stock closed on Friday at 10.25.

6) ZLAB - Averaged long at 134.64 (3 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 148.94.

7) AU - Averaged long at 26.106 (6 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 16.21.

8) NEM - Averaged long at 61.31 (3 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 59.82.

9) CNX - Purchased at 11.59. Averaged long at 11.055 (4 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 11.89

10) LNG - Shorted at 85.38 and at 86.13. Averaged short at 85.755 (2 mentions). Stock closed on Friday at 84.64.

11 ENG - Averaged long at 4.92 (2 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 2.35.

12) QQQ - Shorted at 368.91. Stop loss at 370.35. Stock closed on Friday at 368.05.

13) CRON - Averaged long at 9.146 (3 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 7.31.

14) MRGE - Purchased at .28. No stop loss at present. Stock closed at .157 on Friday.

15) QQQ - Shorted at 367.00. Covered shorts at 367.80). Loss on the trade of $80 per 100 shares.


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Disclaimer

The opinions and commentaries by Mr. De Vito are not a recommendation to buy or sell, but rather a charting guideline, based on his own knowledge and experience, regarding the stocks he is following or that are brought to him by others. Mr. De Vito does not presently offer a track record of his trading experiences. No inference of success and/or failure should be assumed. The information enclosed above, regarding his background, length of trading, and experience, is correct but is not meant to suggest, state, or infer any future success in trading, based on his opinions.

The information herewith included should only be used by investors who are aware of the risk inherent in securities trading. Mr. De Vito accepts no liability whatsoever for any loss arising from any use of the information and/or comments he supplies.




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