Issue #740
Nov 14, 2021
The Oasis

Newsletter


The newsletter with chart analysis for stocks and stock indexes

Stock Indexes Analysis/Evaluation


Inflation Higher than Expected. Bull's Control Wavers!

DOW Friday closing price - 36100
SPX Friday closing price - 4682
NASDAQ Friday closing price - 16199

The inflation report came out on Tuesday and it was higher than anticipated, causing all the indexes to generate a red weekly close. The bullish mentality of the breakout to all-time highs seen over the past few weeks was doused with a "bucket of cold water", causing the bulls to question themselves as to how much fundamental support there is for continuing the bull trend.

In looking at the weekly closes though, the red weekly closes do not "yet" fully support a halt to the bull trend, given that the SPX and the NASDAQ managed to rally enough on Friday to close in the upper half of the week's trading range. This action does suggest that further upside above last week's highs at 4714 (SPX) and 16401 (NAZ) will likely occur this week. With the all-time high in the SPX being at 4718 and the all-time high in the NASDAQ being at 16454, it seems unlikely that if they do go above last week's high that no new all-time highs would be made. It is possible but unlikely. In addition to these indexes closing in the upper half of the week's trading range, the DOW versus NASDAQ dichotomy continued as the DOW closed in the lower half of the week's trading range, suggesting the money is still flowing toward the NAZ (rather than the DOW) and that is a bullish statement. New all-time highs would basically suggest that the traders are ignoring the higher inflation number and if that occurs, there is absolutely nothing on the immediate horizon that could prevent the indexes moving forward like a runaway freight train.

On the other side of the coin, the small cap index (RUT) kept pace with the NASDAQ and that continues to suggest that even if the indexes make new all-time highs this week that the money is starting to shift toward the small cap stocks.

The only economic report of consequence due out this week is Retail Sales (on Tuesday AM). Nonetheless, this report does not have a history of being catalytic, meaning that it is not something the traders will pivot on unless it is way out of line (unlikely).

Evidently, the all-time intraweek highs mentioned above will be the key this week. If the indexes break them, probabilities will favor further upside. If the SPX and the NASDAQ go above last week's highs but fail to make new intraweek highs and another red close occurs next Friday, the situation will once again shift to the bears and a top to the rally having been found.

Last week's lows are pivotal this week, especially in the SPX and the NASDAQ, because if broken the late week rally will be negated. In the SPX that level is at 4630 and in the NAZ it is at 15905.

The charts are quite clear this week and given that there are no fundamental reports of consequence due out for another 3 weeks, they are likely to be dependable (as far as giving signs are concerned). For the next 3 weeks, it will all be about the charts given there are no economic reports of catalytic consequences due out until the first week of December. By the same token, December is now looking to be a very pivotal month as the Fed will be announcing the rate decision on December 15th and that rate decision will be given after next month's inflation reports comes out, meaning that there could be a surprise announcement. Nonetheless, this also means that whatever happens this week in the charts will likely be supported for the next 4 weeks. Probabilities do favor the bulls, given that most of the fundamental negative signals that have come out during the last few months have been ignored. As such, probabilities do favor this past week's fundamental inflation report will be ignored as well.


GOLD generated a new 21-week intraweek and weekly closing high and closed on the high of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at $1871 will be seen this week. With inflation having reported as being higher than anticipated, the breakout is fundamentally supported. The next level of intraweek resistance is found at $1882 and the probabilities of Gold getting up to that level this week are high. This breakout has now confirmed that the 15-month correction is now over and the question now going to be asked is "whether the previous bull trend is resuming or whether a sideways trend is to occur". The level that will decide that question is at $1919. A break of that level of resistance will fully open the door for the all-time high at $2120 to be tested. On a weekly closing basis, the $1834 level ($1800-$1810 on an intraweek basis) will now become support. As of this writing, the chart suggests the trading range for the next 5 weeks will be $1810 to $1882. Anything above or below that level will give a further edge to one side or the other.

SILVER generated a new 14-week intraweek and weekly closing high and closed on the high of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 25.46 will be seen this week. The breakout does mean that the correction is over. Intraweek resistance is now found between 25.90 and 26.27 but on a weekly closing basis, resistance is found at 25.97. On the other side of the coin, intraweek support will now be found between 23.74 and 24.84 but on a weekly closing basis, support is found at 24.80. A break above 26.27 would suggest a rally to 27.90 would occur.

OIL had a wild and somewhat unexplainable week, rallying unexpectedly above the previous week's high based on the higher-than-expected inflation report but then generating a negative reversal day after the report came out and ending up red and near the low of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 79.80 will be seen this week. The main reason for the negative reversal was a higher than expected supply report that came out the same day (after the inflation report). Nonetheless and given that the supply reports come out weekly (can change from week to week) but higher inflation is an ongoing supporting factor to Oil, the end result on Friday was surprising. The chart action though, does put the bulls in a precarious position this coming week because if Oil does go below last week's low, it will make last week's high at 84.94 in a successful retest of the multi-month high at 85.41 and open the door for a top to have been formed. On the other hand, the bulls were still able to stay above the important weekly close support level at 79.20 (closed at 81.27), meaning that the reversal is not yet any kind of a bear statement. Intraweek support is found at 78.25 that now carries a bit more weight in being broken than it did the previous week, simply because a successful retest of the high will have been confirmed if now broken. Nonetheless, the inflation number being unexpectedly higher, does give the bulls some support and if the supply number this coming Wednesday is not again surprisingly higher, the bulls are likely to maintain the edge. By the same token, the action seen did strengthen the idea that Oil is likely to trade between $79 and $86 for the next few weeks.

DOLLAR generated a new 16-month intraweek and weekly closing high and closed near the high of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 95.26 will be seen. This move up was a bull statement as all the resistance levels built over the past 16 months have now been broken, meaning that the weakness seen the past 16 months has now been totally erased and it is a "new ball game". More importantly, this breakout occurred off of fundamental news (higher inflation report) that suggest that a dovish Fed will not be able to keep interest rates at zero without causing inflation to flare up to uncontrollable levels. The is no resistance of consequence above until the 96.98-97.57 level is reached, meaning that an additional 3% rally could occur over the next few weeks. The chart suggests that ultimately, the Dollar could be heading as high as the $100 level over the next year or so. It also suggests that the 95.50-94.00 level will now become decent intraweek support.

BITCOIN continued the bull trend, having made yet another (the 2nd) new all-time intraweek high above the previous one at 64374, which was made back in March. Bitcoin closed slightly in the lower half of the week's trading range, suggesting a slightly higher probability of going below last week's low at 61400 than above last week's high at 68925. This lower-than-the-midpoint close does keep the bulls at bay from Bitcoin continuing to run unabated to the upside. It must be mentioned that the first breakout a few weeks ago did generate a failure signal on the daily closing chart, meaning that the bulls have to make sure that will not happen again. The previous all-time high daily close from March is at 63518 and the bulls need to keep Bitcoin closing above that level this week, in order to bring in additional new buying interest. On a daily closing basis, the 58453 level is now "pivotal" support. Any daily close below that level will deflate all the bullish action seen and give the bears the edge again.


Stock Analysis/Evaluation
CHART Outlooks

This week I am giving the same mention as I gave midweek, given that the desired entry point was not reached. In addition and as mentioned last week, there are several held stocks that have given signs of having bottomed out and beginning a rally and I will be looking to add to those, if and when the chart action during the week supports adding at a good entry point. Those stocks and entry points will be given on the message board as they become available.

IDCC Friday Closing Price - 72.32

IDCC is a digital company that develops technologies that enable and enhance wireless communications.

IDCC started trading in the year 2000 around $20 and got into a nice bull trend that took the stock to an all-time high at $102.30 in 2017. From there, the stock got into a bear trend that culminated in March 2020 (the trough of the pandemic) with a low at $31. Within 6 months, the stock doubled in price up to $67. Nonetheless, from February 2019 to April 2021 (2 years), the stock traded below the 200-week MA (currently at 66.11). In April of this year, the stock broke above the line and the break out generated a rally up to 85.75 and a new 3-year high seen in June of this year.

Since then, IDCC has been retracing with a brief (1-week) dive below the MA line in July. For the past 14 weeks, the stock has been trading between $75 and $65 but has been staying above the MA consistently since then.

A week ago Thursday, the company reported earnings but in anticipation of them, the stock had rallied from $65 t0 $74 (15%). The report did come out better than expected but evidently that was already factored into the price and as such, the stock opened lower the previous Friday and continued lower for the next 3 days. It was expected the stock would go lower at the beginning of the week and it did. Nonetheless, it did not get low enough to get to the desired entry point, meaning that has been changed for this coming week.

IDCC generated an inside week but did close near the high of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 73.21 will be seen this week. The desired entry point given last week was betweem 69.50 and 69.75 but the stock only got down to 70.13 before it turned around and rallied the rest of the week. This means that the desired entry point has now changed as last week's low has now become a successful retest of the 200-day MA, currently at 69.81 and having already successfully retested that level, it has now become pivotal support and should no longer be broken.

IDCC did close near the low of the day on Friday and the first course of action on Monday should be to the downside. The 200 10-minute MA is currently at 71.62 and given the action seen last week, that line should be tested this week but not likely to be broken. As such, the new desired entry point will be around the 71.70 level.

There is a lot of resistance between $74 and $75 but if those levels are broken (which they should be given the support base now built), there is basically open air above until the 82.50/84.50 level is reached. Above that, only the all time high remains as resistance. The chart suggests that a rally up to the 82.50 is likely to occur. Support has now been raised to the $70 demilitarized zone, meaning that the fact that the desired entry point is now higher than given last week, the risk factor is now less as well. As such, stop loss will be at 69.65. Purchases should be made around the 71.70 level, meaning that the risk will be approximately $205 per 100 shares. Profit potential with a rally to 82.50 would be approximately $1100 per 100 shares, meaning a 5-1 risk/reward ratio. My rating on the trade is a 4 (on a scale of 1-5 with 5 being the highest).

Updates
Updates on Held Stocks
Closed Trades, Open Positions and Stop Loss Changes

AU generated a 22-week intraweek and weekly closing high and closed in the upper half of the week's trading range, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 21.80 will be seen this week. With Gold doing the same this week, this breakout is dependable and means the correction is over. Some intraweek resistance is found at 22.93 and stronger at 23.85, which is likely to be the upside objective of this breakout. Nonetheless and like with Gold, the probabilities favor the stock trading sideways for the rest of the year between 18.04 and 23.85, meaning that consideration should be given to liquidating positions near the top and rebuying them at support. A $6 trading range is large enough to trade the stock (rather than keep the positions for the possibility of higher levels next year. For the time being, support will be found at the 200-day MA, currently at 19.96. The stock broke above that line this week and therefore if the breakout is real (probable), the line should not be broken to the downside anytime soon.

BTZI continued to see some selling pressure, have generated a new 4-week intraweek low and a new 3-week weekly closing low. Once again, the stock closed in the lower half of the week's trading range, suggesting further downside below last week's low at .075. Nonetheless, the stock closed on Friday just above the weekly close breakout level at .078 (closed at .081) and also above the daily close breakout level at .08, meaning that the bulls should see a lot of green this week, starting on Monday. The 200-day MA, currently at .0866, was broken on Friday but the break still needs to be confirmed and if the stock closes above that level on Monday, a confirmation of the break will occur. The chart states that this coming week is very important to the bulls as the downside targets for a retest of the breakout have now been reached and any further downside will erase all the positive action seen the past 5 weeks. In simple words, the bulls need to step up to the plate this week. Any daily close below .08 for 2 days in a row would weaken the chart. Any daily close above .10 would be a signal that the bulls have the edge back.

CALM failed to follow through to the upside, suggesting the bulls still need to do more to get the traders to start buying the stock consistently. The stock closed in the lower half of the week's trading range, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 35.87 will be seen this week. This is considered to be one more step in the building of a strong support base from which to launch an attempt to recover from the correction and possibly start a new uptrend. Downside objective for the week is 35.48. I will be considering adding positions at that price. Pivotal resistance is now found at 37.67, which if broken would suggest the stock rally to the 200-week MA, currently at 41.62. With the action the previous week, the bulls have gotten a small edge over the bears.

CHUY did not follow through to the upside off of the previous week's spike high rally after the earnings report came out. The stock did close in the lower half of the week's trading range, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 32.09 will be seen this week. The red week is not yet a sign of anything negative as the previous week's low at 28.50 requires a chart retest before the bulls climb aboard. In addition, the breakout on the weekly closing chart at 33.40 also required a retest. Daily close support is found at 31.53 that should not be broken, if and when the breakout is valid. Daily close resistance is now found at 34.71. If broken, there is open air above until the 200-day MA, currently at 37.39, is reached.

CRON had a positive week in which a buy signal and a failure signal-against-the-bears were generated. The stock made a new 13-week daily closing high and above the previous daily closing high at 5.65 and also closed above a previous daily closing low at 6.17 (from which the drop down to 5.11 occurred when broken), meaning that it is now highly likely that the bottom of the correction has been found. On an intraweek basis, there is open air above until the 8.13 is reached. On the weekly closing chart, the is minor resistance at 6.50 and short-term pivotal resistance at 7.37. The stock closed in the upper half of the week's trading range and further upside above last week's high at 6.76 is expected to be seen. Objective for the week will be the 7.00/7.02 level where there is quite a bit of resistance on the daily closing chart. Pivotal daily close support is now found at 5.47.

ENG generated a negative reversal week, having made a new 4-week intraweek high and then closing red and in the lower half of the week's trading range, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 2.28 will be seen this week. The chart remains leaning in favor of the bulls but the action suggests a bit more base building is required before the bulls jump aboard. Even though the weekly chart suggests that the stock will go below 2.28 this week, the daily chart suggests otherwise. Pivotal intraweek resistance is found at 2.76. A break of that level would likely mean a rally up to the 200-day MA, currently at 3.31, would be seen. Short-term pivotal support is found at 2.14. Chart suggests this week will be mostly uneventful with a trading range between 2.38 and 2.47. The 200-day MA is currently at 2.47 and a confirmed close above that line would give the edge back to the bulls and generate a rally up to at least the 2.62 level (if not higher).

MRGE idled all week between .07 and .08 cents without any sign of direction occurring. It seems that for the time being and at this price, the traders will wait for next before venturing in either direction. Intraweek support is found at .06 and resistance at .10. Stock is likely to trade in that range until some new news comes out.

NEM generated a new 10-week intraweek and weekly closing high and closed near the high of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 59.38 will be seen this week. There is pivotal intraweek resistance at 60.13 that if broken, would offer open air up to 62.30. Any weekly close above 62.82 would be a short-term bull statement that would suggest a rally up to $68 would occur. Any daily close now below 56.65 would once again weaken the chart. The 200-day MA is currently at 61.00 and given the strength seen in Gold this past week, it is a decent probability that level will be reached this week.

RIO generated an uneventful inside week but the green weekly close made the previous week's weekly close at 60.62 into a successful retest of the 200-week MA. As such, it can be thought that the correction may now be over and some recovery is to be seen. The stock did close near the high of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 63.14 will be seen this week. Intraweek resistance is found at 64.02, at 65.20 and at 66.53. A rally above 66.53 would be a short-term bull statement especially if a weekly close above 64.22 also occurs. With all the failure signals against the bulls given the past few weeks, as well as the downgrade given to the company, the probabilities favor the stock trading between $60 and $65 for several weeks (or couple of months) until new fundamental news comes out. Nonetheless, the bulls do have the edge this week due to the successful retest of the weekly MA line. Important pivotal intraweek support is now found at 60.17, which if broken would cause the chart to deteriorate strongly. Consideration should be given to liquidating positions between $64 and $65 but any rally above 66.53 would suggest a rally to $70 would occur.

QTWO generated an uneventful inside week but the stock did close near the low of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 83.94 will be seen. It was a bit of a disappointment that the bulls were unable to follow through to the upside given the spike up rally, close near the high of the week the previous week, and the lack of meaningful resistance close by above, suggesting the earnings report was not as fundamentally good as what the action seen suggested it was. As such, the chart suggests that a bit more base building is required before the bulls jump aboard in a bigger way. The 200-week MA, currently at 79.18, is strongly pivotal as the fundamental news that came out should not give any ammunition to the bears to break that line. Nonetheless, there is a good probability of the stock dropping down to that line this week, in the base building effort. Nonetheless, there is some minor to perhaps decent intraweek support at 83.52 that if it holds, the bulls will likely jump back in right away. Upside objectives are 92.34 and 93.90, with the latter being pivotal if broken. It would give the bulls a clear objective of $100. It is important to note that on the daily chart, the stock has built a bullish flag formation with the flagpole being the rally from 74.53 to 89.54 and the flag being the 7-day action with the drop down to 83.94 That low can be broken by a few points and the flag remain in place. Top of the flag is at 89.54, which if broken with the flag in place, will offer a 102.94 objective. Chart is strongly supportive of the bulls longer term, with the only question being what will happen in the short-term.

SNDL reported earnings this past week and they were better than expected. In addition, the company announced a share repurchase program as well. The stock spiked up this week and gained 22% in value over the previous week's close. The stock made a new 4+-month intraweek and weekly closing high and closed near the high of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at .96 will be seen this week. The stock closed right at the 200-day MA, currently at .94 and if the bulls are able to establish themselves above the line this coming week, it will be a game changer. On a weekly closing basis, there is weekly close resistance at 1.04 and midterm pivotal at 1.09. A weekly close above 1.09 would open the door for a rally up to the 2.00 level. Daily close support should now be found at .78.

SRUTF continued to trade sideways between .035 and .04 (based on a daily close). That has been the trading range for 90% of the time during the past 16 weeks. Nonetheless, it does need to be mentioned that both CRON and SNDL generated breakouts this past week, suggesting that the stock may be doing the same soon. The high and low seen 8 weeks ago at .0505 and at .0305 remains the parameters for something happening. A break above or below the high and low seen that week will generate movement in that direction. Otherwise, the stock is likely to continue to trade within that range.

ZLAB continued the downtrend, having made a new 52-week intraweek and weekly closing low this past week. This occurred in spite of the fact that the stock reported better than expected earnings on Tuesday. The stock closed near the low of the week and further downside below last week's low at 84.32 is expected to be seen this week. The "continued" down action that has broken many important and pivotal supports is somewhat unexplainable given the future fundamental outlook for the company. Today, I spent over 30 minutes researching analysts covering the company and every single one of them have the stock as a buy with a $195-$206 upside objective for 2022. One company (Walletinvestors.com) gave a 5-year outlook with an upside objective of $389 (more than quadruple Friday's closing price). Other than the amount of cash being spent of preparing the company for what is to come in the near future (as far as developing and marketing its products), I have found no fundamental negatives at all. Chart-wise, there is intraweek support at 80.46 and decent to strong at 71.96. Intraweek resistance is now found at 89.48 and at 95.42 and then nothing until 105.82. It is evident that chart-wise, there are no reasons at this time to be holding the stock. As such, I am approaching this trade as a buy and hold investment.


1) SNDL - Averaged long at .905 (2 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at .92.

2) CHUY - Averaged long at 30.75. Stop loss now at 28.40. Stock closed on Friday at 32.89.

3) SRUTF - Averaged long at .0738 (3 mentions). No stop loss at moment. Stock closed on Friday at .0358.

4) BTZI - Averaged long at .0935 (4 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at .081.

5) ZLAB - Averaged long at 125.7825 (4 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 58.73.

6) AU - Averaged long at 26.106 (6 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 20.81.

7) NEM - Averaged long at 60.137 (4 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 58.73.

8) QTWO - Purchased at 77.21. Stop loss now at 81.65 (on a stop close only). Stock closed on Friday at 85.32.

9) RIO - Purchased at 61.28. Averaged long at 64.085 (2 mentions). Stock closed on Friday at 62.34.

10 ENG - Averaged long at 4.0325 (4 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 2.41.

11) CRON - Averaged long at 9.146 (3 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 6.26.

12) MRGE - Purchased at .28. No stop loss at present. Stock closed at .075 on Friday.

13) CALM - Purchased at 34.99. Stop loss at 33.65. Stock closed on Friday at 36.36.

14) CHUY - Averaged long at 30.75 (2 mentions). Stop loss at 28.38. Stock closed on Friday at 32.89.

15) AAPL - Shorted at 152.17. Covered shorts at 8150.68. Profit on the trade of $149 per 100 shares.


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Disclaimer

The opinions and commentaries by Mr. De Vito are not a recommendation to buy or sell, but rather a charting guideline, based on his own knowledge and experience, regarding the stocks he is following or that are brought to him by others. Mr. De Vito does not presently offer a track record of his trading experiences. No inference of success and/or failure should be assumed. The information enclosed above, regarding his background, length of trading, and experience, is correct but is not meant to suggest, state, or infer any future success in trading, based on his opinions.

The information herewith included should only be used by investors who are aware of the risk inherent in securities trading. Mr. De Vito accepts no liability whatsoever for any loss arising from any use of the information and/or comments he supplies.




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