Issue #739
Nov 7, 2021
The Oasis

Newsletter


The newsletter with chart analysis for stocks and stock indexes

Stock Indexes Analysis/Evaluation


Bulls in Control. 13-year Uptrend Resumes.

DOW Friday closing price - 36327
SPX Friday closing price - 4697
NASDAQ Friday closing price - 16359

All the indexes across the board made a new all-time intraweek and weekly closing highs and closed near the high of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's highs (DOW at 36484, SPX at 4718, and the NASDAQ at 16454) will be seen this week. The big news for the week is that the NAZ took the reins over the DOW once again, having rallied 3.2% this week over the DOW that rallied 1.4%. This means that this breakout (from the seasonal correction) is supported and not likely to fail. By the same token, the RUT index rallied 5.6% over last week's close and into new all-time highs for the first time since March, suggesting that the rally will continue but the money is likely to be shifting into the small cap area. This scenario, which if confirmed over the next few weeks, would suggest the market is getting into the final stage of the now 13-year bull trend.

The NASDAQ did break above the top of an up channel that has been in place since February. The top of the channel is at 16284 and with the index closing 75 points above that level, it will be considered a confirmed break of the line, if and when further upside is seen this week and another green close occurs next Friday. If this happens, it will also be a sign that the end of the bull market is getting closer as it would suggest that the market is into a runaway phase, which means that when the exhaustion high is found, it will be the start of a bear market. Unfortunately for the bears, such a sign would mean the market is running to the upside but with no set time or price objective. Usually, the market has a seasonal tendency for a xmas rally, meaning that the bulls have that additional ammunition to use. Such a runaway situation could go on for weeks and even months before the top is found. As such, what the market does this week is very important. The pivotal day of this coming week will be Wednesday when the CPI (inflation report) comes out. The report is expected to come out at .6% (core CPI at .4%). If the report comes out lower than anticipated, it will give the necessary ammunition to the bulls for further upside to be seen.

Given that there is no resistance above in any of the indexes, attention this week will be all on support levels below. The NASDAQ has generated 10 green daily closes in a row and has no established support until the previous all-time high daily close at 15675 is reached. It is extremely unlikely the index will see such a drop this week, unless the CPI report is way out of line to the upside. As such, attention will be keyed on the intraday 10-minute chart and the 200 10-minute MA. It is interesting to note that on that chart, the index has been above the MA line for the past 17 days. There was one retest of the line that occurred on October 22nd but otherwise, the index has stayed well above the line throughout this period of time. The line is presently at 16098 but keep in mind that it is the 10-minute chart, meaning that every 10 minutes that line will be moving higher. On the chart, there is some minor but established support at 16254, which if broken would suggest a drop to the MA line would likely occur. This means that 16254 is short term pivotal and the MA line (at whatever price it is when that minor support is broken) would then likely be targeted and become pivotal (if broken the chart outlook would change). As such, there is nothing else in the present chart that the traders (mostly the bears) can look at, for signs of the market topping out.

The bulls are in full control and the onus is on the bears to come up with something that will stop this now runaway market. The only report that could give ammunition to the bears is the inflation report on Wednesday. Otherwise, the only other thing that could happen is an exhaustion high and there seems to be no reason right now for expectation of that happening at this time. Probabilities favor the bulls.


GOLD had a very eventful week (contrary to the previous one, which was very uneventful). Gold generated a positive reversal week, having made a new 3-week low and then turning around to make a new 8-week high. Gold closed on the high of the week and further upside above last week's high at $1820 is expected to be seen this week. Gold is now likely to test a very important midterm pivotal resistance level at $1837, which if broken would open the door for a rally to $1884. Nonetheless and more importantly, it would change the chart to a short-term bullish outlook and away from the defensive and biased to the downside scenario that it has been in for the past 15 months. If that occurs, the bulls will have one more level of resistance to break (at $1919) for a midterm bull trend to be in place and a test of the all-time high at $2120 to occur. All the downside testing needed to build a strong and dependable support base has been built (if Gold goes above $1820 this week, the $1759 level will become dependable pivotal support), meaning that the bulls now have the chart tools to attempt to resume the uptrend that had been in place since 2014. As with the index market, Wednesday's inflation report is likely to be pivotal. Probabilities favor the bulls getting above $1820 but it is a 50-50 chance of getting above $1837.

SILVER generated a positive reversal week, having made a new 3-week low and then turning around to close green and on the high of the week, suggesting upside above last week's high at 24.14 will be seen this week. If that occurs, Silver will have built the needed/required retest of the 15-month low at 21.45 that occurred 6 weeks ago. An intraweek break above the 24.76/24.80 level would give the bulls short-term control for a rally at least up to the $26 level and perhaps up to the $27+ level. If Silver goes above 24.14 this week, last week's low at 23.04 will become pivotal support. Probabilities favor the bulls but then again, the 24.80 is pivotal and does require the inflation report to come out as expected or higher.

OIL generated a down week and closed in the lower half of the week's trading range, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 78.30 will be seen this week. The rally in Oil was halted this week due to the announcement from OPEC that an additional 400,000 barrels of production were allowed. On an intraweek basis, there is no support below until 77.28 is reached. Further intraweek downside 74.95 is also possible (if 77.28 is broken). On a positive note, Oil closed on Thursday at 78.81 and traded as low as 78.96 on Friday and yet the bears were unable to generate a weekly close below 79.20 (closed at 81.27), meaning that the bears failed to generate a failure signal against the bulls. This does suggest that Oil remains in an overall bullish stance at this time. Oil did close near the high of the day on Friday, suggesting further upside above Friday's high at 81.80 will be seen on Monday. Some resistance is found at 82.18 that could (maybe should) stop the rally. If that occurs, the downside will once again be targeted for another red close next Friday. The 79.20 level on a weekly closing basis remains pivotally important but intraweek drops below that level can be seen. It is possible and probably likely that on an intraweek basis, Oil will drop down to the 77.28 level this week or next. A weekly close around the 79.20 level remains a decent-to-high probability, to be seen within the next 1-3 weeks. Overall though, the bulls remain in control.

DOLLAR generated a new 14-month intraweek and weekly closing high and closed slightly in the upper half of the week's trading range, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 94.64 will be seen this week. Nonetheless and in spite of the strength seen this past week, the traders were unable to break the intraweek resistance at 94.74 or break the weekly close resistance at 94.64. Like with most everything else, the traders will be dependent on what the inflation report on Wednesday says. A break above 94.74 (combined with a weekly close above 94.64 next Friday) will be a bull statement of consequence, which would open the door for a rally to the $97-$97.50 level. An intraweek break below last week's low at 93.82 would be a negative sign that could bring in a lot of new selling interest.

BITCOIN failed to confirm the previous week's new all-time weekly closing high, having closed on Friday below the previous all-time weekly closing high at 61207 (closed on Friday at 60700). This makes this coming week pivotal as another red close would create a double top that would be a negative ominous sign for the crypto market. As with everything else, the inflation report on Wednesday is likely to be catalytic. Bitcoin did close near the low of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 59595 is expected to be seen this week. Pivotal intraweek support is found at 57612, which if broken would give the bears the edge, if not full control. Intraweek resistance is now found at 64274 and pivotal at 66927.


Stock Analysis/Evaluation

CHART Outlooks

I have no new mentions for this week but it isn't because there is nothing to trade but because I believe that among the held stocks there will be some new opportunities being presented to add positions. For example, if the reality is that the Republicans are going to allow the legalization of Marijuana, those stocks will begin moving forward and given that are at extremely depressed prices, there could be some great buying oppotunities. In addition, three of the stocks presently held (CALM, CHUY, and QTWO), could present some opportunity to add positions. In addition, ZLAB has gotten to a price that is extremely low and the company is reporting earnings on Tuesday afternoon and could be a game changer. Last but not least, the inflation report comes out Wednesday morning and that could offer additional buying opportunities in the presently held Gold-related stocks that are also depressed.

Given that at this moment (Sunday afternoon) there are still questions that need to be answered regarding most of these stocks and the news/reports that are scheduled to come out, I do not have any specific stocks or entry points in mind to give out. They will be given on the message board as things get clearer throughout the week.

Updates
Updates on Held Stocks
Closed Trades, Open Positions and Stop Loss Changes

AAPL generated an uneventful inside week but did close near the high of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 152.43 will be seen this week. Short-term pivotal resistance is found at 153.17, which if broken would suggest the all-time high at 157.26 would be tested and likely broken, given the strength being seen in the index market. Last week's low at 147.80 has now become short-term pivotal support. This stock is not presently a leader but a follower and as such, will likely do what the indexes do. Stop loss remains at 153.25.

AU generated a positive reversal week, having made a new 3-week low but then closing green and on the high of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 19.02 will be seen this week. If that does occur, last week's low at 17.92 will become a successful retest of the 200-week MA, currently at 17.66, as well as the needed/required retest of the 18-month low at 14.45. Of course, to confirm such retests the bulls would need to get above the recent intraweek high at 19.99. The 200-day MA is currently at 20.06 and if all of this happens and the daily MA line gets broken as well, the bulls will find themselves is a short-term bull run. Like with everything else, Wednesday's inflation report is a likely catalyst. Last week's low at 17.92 will become pivotal support if the stock gets above 19.02 this week.

BTZI generated a new 3-week intraweek low and in the process broke what has been built as a decent intraweek support level at .0855 (low last week was .077). Nonetheless, the bears were unable to generate any follow through as the daily closes between Tuesday and Friday were at .095, .097, .0948 and Friday's close at .0977. As such, the 200-day MA, currently at 0855 remained unbroken on a daily closing basis. The stock closed exactly in the middle of the weeks' trading range, suggesting equal chance of going below last week's low at .077 as going above last week's high at .1145. Evidently, what Bitcoin does this week will be key to what the stock does. As such, nothing of consequence is likely to happen until Wednesday after the inflation report comes out. The stock is not sensitive to the inflation report but Bitcoin is. Last week's low though, has become pivotal support that if broken, the entire rally to .18 will be negated.

CALM generated a new 8-week intraweek high and a new 19-week weekly closing high and closed in the upper half of the week's trading range, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 37.67 will be seen this week. Nonetheless, the stock finds itself at an important pivot point in the form of the 200-day MA, currently at 37.21. The stock closed on Thursday at 37.01 and on Friday at 36.85, suggesting that the bears will have the edge at the beginning of the week. Daily close support is found at 36.47 and short-term pivotal at 36.06. Pivotal daily close resistance is found at 37.85. The bulls were able to break a weekly close resistance at 36.52 on Friday, suggesting that the probabilities now favor them slightly.

CHUY generated a positive reversal week after reporting earnings on Thursday evening. The stock closed on the high of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 34.87 will be seen this week. The earnings were actually less than expected but they did announce a $50 million share buyback and the stock spiked up. In the process, a buy signal on the weekly closing chart was given when it closed above the previous 15-week high weekly close at 33.23. There is weekly close resistance above at 34.95, at 35.85 and then nothing until the mention's objective at 42.20 (44.06 on an intraweek basis). On an intraweek basis, the 200-day MA, currently at 37.46, is a magnet given the spike up rally. An intraweek break above 37.65 would be a bull statement. Intraweek support will now be found at 32.32. Probabilities favor the bulls.

CRON generated a positive reversal week, having made a new 13-month intraweek low at 5.11 and then closing green. Nonetheless, the stock closed in the lower half of the week's trading range, suggesting a higher chance of going below last week's low at 5.11 than above last week's high at 5.66. On the other hand, there was a piece of news announced on Friday 40-minutes before the close regarding the Republicans willing to support a bill that would make Marijuana legal in the U.S. that may give the bulls some new ammunition on Monday. Pivotal intraweek resistance is found at 6.05 and pivotal intraweek support is found at 4.92. Probabilities slightly favor the bulls this week.

ENG generated a green weekly close and closed in the upper half of the week's trading range, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 2.57 is expected to be seen this week. The green weekly close has made the previous week's intraweek and weekly closing low into the second successful retest of the 1.74 (1.80 on a weekly closing basis) low made in August. Minor intraweek resistance is found at 2.71 that if broken, should push the traders to test the 200-day MA, currently at 3.44, for the 3rd time since the line got broken to the downside in June. Pivotal intraweek resistance is found at 3.88, which if broken would be a game changer. Pivotal intraweek support is now found at 2.14. Probabilities favor the bulls.

MRGE continued lower, having made a new 5-week low at .06. The stock did rally from the low to close slightly in the upper half of the week's trading range, suggesting a slightly higher chance of going above last week's high at .09 that below last week's low at .06. If that occurs, the needed/required retest of the 8-month low at .03 will have been accomplished. To the upside there is no resistance above until minor resistance at .10 is reached. Pivotal resistance is found at .139, which if broken would suggest a move up to the .22 cent level where the 200-day MA is currently located. Probabilities slightly favor the bulls this week.

NEM generated a positive reversal week, having made a new 4-week low and then closing green and on the high of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 56.42 will be seen this week. If that occurs, last week's intraweek low at 53.54 will become the needed/required retest of the 53.03 16-month low seen 6-weeks ago. Pivotal intraweek resistance is found at 59.26, which if broken would be a game changer. The chart suggests that the stock has now fulfilled building a strong support base from which to begin a recovery rally that would offer a $70 objective. A break below 53.03 would now be a negative and a break below 52.34 would give control to the bears. Probabilities favor the bulls.

RIO made a new 52-week intraweek and weekly closing low and closed on the low of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 60.17 will be seen this week. The reason for the drop is the fact that iron ore prices have dropped 20% over the past couple of months, as well as the fact the company itself has had some production and distribution problems. The stock did close at the 200-week MA, currently at 60.68 (closed on Friday at 60.62) and that line has not been broken to the downside over the past 18-months. With inflation being a problem right now and commodity prices likely being supported because of it, it is unlikely that further downside will be seen on a weekly closing basis. In addition and in reading an article from Forbes, there is a 51% chance of the stock rallying (instead of dropping) for the next 21 days. There is some minor but established intraweek support at 59.48 that could be the downside target this week but from which a turnaround is likely to occur. Intraweek resistance is now found at 62.72 and at 63.83, both of which are minor. Pivotal resistance is now found at 68.04, which is broken would mean the correction is over. In looking at the daily closing chart, I can see a decent probability of a rally back up to the 65.25 level, at which point I will likely look to liquidate the positions at a small profit.

QTWO reported earnings and they were better than expected, causing the stock to spike up 16.8% in value in just 2 days. The stock closed near the high of the week and further upside above last week's high at 89.54 is expected to be seen this week. The green weekly close means that the previous week's close at 78.46 is now a successful retest of the 200-week MA, currently at 78.94. In addition, the green close also means that a successful retest of the 18-month low weekly close at 76.28 (seen 5 weeks ago) has occurred. There is short-term pivotal intraweek resistance at 92.34 and then further resistance at 93.90. Above that level, there is open air until the 105.74 level is reached. Decent daily close support should now be found at 81.96. A break above 92.34 should generate a rally up to the 200-day MA, currently at 100.08. That line has not been broken to the upside since March and is pivotal resistance for the midterm. The 8-month high is 105.45 and a break of that level would be a game changer. Probabilities favor the bulls.

SNDL continued to generate small trading ranges (last week it was $.05) and continue to make new lows. Nonetheless and as stated last week, the new lows are by such small margins that it is basically uneventful. The stock closed on Friday at .0643 and when added to the previous 6 weekly closes at .673, .670. .681, .656, at .659 and at .650, it becomes evident the stock is stock is neutral with a very small bias to the downside. The company reports earnings on Wednesday, November 10th and until then, this sideways trading is likely to continue. Minor but short-term important support is found at .61 and major support at .50. Minor but short-term pivotal resistance is found at .75 and decent at .95. As such, a .50-.95 cent trading range for the rest of the year is what is expected, with a small to decent possibility that it will be a .60 to .95 trading range. There was news on Friday afternoon of the Republicans now favoring a bill to make Marijuana legal and that could give some new buying interest to the stock.

SRUTF generated a new 13-month intraweek low at .029 but then rallied to close near the high of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at .0413 will be seen this week. Like the other Cannabis stocks, it has been idling-with-a-small-bias-to-the-downside for the past 3 months. Nonetheless, it is possible that it may change this week given the news about the Republicans supporting making Marijuana legal. The high and low seen 7 weeks ago at .0505 and at .0305 remains the parameters for something happening. A break above or below the high and low seen that week will generate movement in that direction. Otherwise, the stock is likely to continue to trade within that range.

ZLAB continued the downtrend, having made a new 52-week intraweek and weekly closing low. The stock closed near the low of the week and further downside below last week's low at 85.64 is expected to be seen this week. There was no news to support the new low, suggesting it was all chart oriented. It is important to note that about 1-month ago an analyst that follows the stock closely stated that the downside target was $87 but that it was a buy at that price. The company reports earnings on Tuesday after the close and that could be the fundamental catalyst for a rally occurring. Intraweek resistance is now found at 95.52 and short-term pivotal daily close resistance is found at 99.18, which if broken would signal an end to the correction. Pivotal midterm daily close resistance is found at 105.76, which if broken would open the door for a rally all the way up to at least $116, if not all the way to $130. Probabilities favor the bulls this week given that the stock has fallen 53% in value over the past 5 months without any negative change in the fundamental picture.


1) SNDL - Averaged long at .905 (2 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at .643.

2) CHUY - Averaged long at 30.75. Stop loss now at 28.40. Stock closed on Friday at 34.71.

3) SRUTF - Averaged long at .0738 (3 mentions). No stop loss at moment. Stock closed on Friday at .038.

4) BTZI - Averaged long at .0935 (4 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at .0967.

5) ZLAB - Averaged long at 125.7825 (4 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 88.49.

6) AU - Averaged long at 26.106 (6 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 18.89.

7) NEM - Averaged long at 60.137 (4 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 56.36.

8) QTWO - Purchased at 77.21. Stop loss now at 81.65 (on a stop close only). Stock closed on Friday at 86.66.

9) RIO - Purchased at 61.28. Averaged long at 64.085 (2 mentions). Stock closed on Friday at 60.62.

10 ENG - Averaged long at 4.0325 (4 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 2.46.

11) CRON - Averaged long at 9.146 (3 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 5.34.

12) MRGE - Purchased at .28. No stop loss at present. Stock closed at .077 on Friday.

13) CALM - Purchased at 34.99. Stop loss at 33.65. Stock closed on Friday at 36.85.

14) CHUY - Averaged long at 30.75 (2 mentions). Stop loss at 28.38. Stock closed on Friday at 34.71.

15) ZLAB - Shorted at 99.30. Covered shorts at 87.98. Profit on the trade of $1132 per 100 shares.


Join The Oasis and receive chart information about stocks you personally follow as well as ideas about other stocks with powerful chart patterns.

Previous Newsletters

View May 30, 2021 Newsletter

View Jun 06, 2021 Newsletter

View Jun 13, 2021 Newsletter

View Jun 20, 2021 Newsletter

View Jun 27, 2021 Newsletter

View Jul 04, 2021 Newsletter

View Jul 11, 2021 Newsletter

View Jul 18, 2021 Newsletter

View Aug 01, 2021 Newsletter

View Aug 08, 2021 Newsletter

View Aug 15, 2021 Newsletter

View Aug 22, 2021 Newsletter

View Aug 29, 2021 Newsletter

View Sep 12, 2021 Newsletter

View Sep 19, 2021 Newsletter

View Sep 26, 2021 Newsletter

View Oct 03, 2021 Newsletter

View Oct 10, 2021 Newsletter

View Oct 17, 2021 Newsletter

View Oct 24, 2021 Newsletter

View Oct 31, 2021 Newsletter

Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns.
A must have for chart aficionados!


Disclaimer

The opinions and commentaries by Mr. De Vito are not a recommendation to buy or sell, but rather a charting guideline, based on his own knowledge and experience, regarding the stocks he is following or that are brought to him by others. Mr. De Vito does not presently offer a track record of his trading experiences. No inference of success and/or failure should be assumed. The information enclosed above, regarding his background, length of trading, and experience, is correct but is not meant to suggest, state, or infer any future success in trading, based on his opinions.

The information herewith included should only be used by investors who are aware of the risk inherent in securities trading. Mr. De Vito accepts no liability whatsoever for any loss arising from any use of the information and/or comments he supplies.




The Oasis is owned by
Oasis Resolutions Inc.