Issue #731
Aug 29, 2021 | Newsletter
The newsletter with chart analysis for stocks and stock indexes |
Stock Indexes Analysis/Evaluation
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| Bulls Playing Defensively. Next 2 Week's action will decide Whether Seasonal Correction is to Happen or Not.
DOW Friday closing price - 35455
The uptrend continued this past week with the SPX and the NASDAQ making new all-time highs across the board. The NASDAQ resumed its leadership, having moved up 2% in value, while the SPX went up 1.4% and the DOW went up 1%. All the indexes closed on the highs of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's highs (DOW at 35501, SPX at 4513 and the NAZ at 15447).
On a negative note for the indexes, there were no positively catalytic reports that came out that offered new ammunition for the bulls (all reports came out mostly as expected with a few with very slightly better numbers than expected), meaning that "momentum" continues to be the driving force. Momentum is never dependable as any negative report can cause it to come to a screeching halt. This coming week, there are 3 possibly catalytic reports scheduled, starting with Consumer Confidence on Tuesday (expected at 123 versus last month's 129.1), then the ISM Index report on Wednesday (expected at 58.5 versus last month's at 59.5), and lastly on Friday, the JOBS report (expected at 750k versus last month's at 943k). As you can see, all reports are already expected to come in less than last month. As such, it is a double-edged sword because if they come in lower than expected, it will be substantially less than what the numbers were last month would likely generate a strong profit taking spree and it they come in higher than last month, the opposite would likely occur.
The only index that still has a resistance level above is the DOW. On an intraweek basis, the all-time high is 35631 and having closed on Friday at 35455, a rally of only 180 points would be a statement. On a daily closing basis, the all-time high is 35625 and on a weekly closing basis, it is 35515. As such, it is likely that this will be the index most closely watched all week, given that if a new all-time high is made, the bulls will get new ammunition but on the other side of the coin, if no new highs are made "this week", it is unlikely the other indexes will be able to continue higher.
Let me once again remind everyone that there is an established bias for a seasonal correction to occur in September and Wednesday is the 1st day of September. Often in the past, Labor Day (this year on September 6th) has been "the" week where it begins.
The support levels below are now going to be watched closely as any break of those will likely signify that the correction has started. The indexes did generate a down day on Thursday and as such, Thursday's lows (DOW at 35205, SPX at 4468 and NASDAQ at 15265) might be short-term pivotal support at the beginning of the week and set the tone for the rest of the week. None of these supports are established, pivotal, or have any strength of consequence but given the importance of the reports due out this week, a break of those supports could be an indication of what is to come. Nonetheless, for the traders to be convinced (and therefore take profits and/or be sellers), the following levels would need to be broken. In the DOW at 34690, in the SPX at 4367 and in the NASDAQ at 14773. The reality is that even getting down to that level would mean the indexes would have to generate a +4% correction and these days that has been considered the most than can be expected. This means that a break of the supports mentioned above would be indicative of a strong correction occurring.
At this time, a big correction has not been the popular view (few analysts are calling for one) and as such, worse than expected (and likely negatively surprising) economic news needs to happen for a strong correction to occur. On the other side of the coin, there is the fact that most of the stimulus programs ended in August or will end in September. Already (and new to the market) is the fact that evictions are once again possible given that those restrictions-against-evictions were lifted this past week. The SNAP food programs ended in August (those was the program that added additional stimulus amounts of money to the Food Stamps programs in place) and as such, cutting the amounts given will cause a lot more economic problems that have not been present during the rally seen this year. Up until now, these changes were not something the traders had to face previously and it is unlikely that they are prepared for it (factored in to the prices in the index markets). This means that everyone is likely to be entering this week "in the dark" and without good understanding of what all of this means (if anything). Will these changes affect the bullish momentum? How much of these changes will be reflected in these reports coming out this week?...............those are the questions the traders will be asking of themselves this week.
I personally believe that these factors are going to affect the market negatively, if for no other reason than they are not positives. Nonetheless, what I think is of no importance. The reports that are coming out this week will likely be analyzed carefully by the traders and the reaction to the reports should be very indicative. Then again, the last and most important of the reports this week is on Friday (Jobs) and that suggests that the traders will not do anything of consequence until then.
SILVER generated a new buy signal on the daily closing chart, having closed above the most recent high daily close at 23.89 (closed at $24.04 on Friday). In addition, the green weekly close has made the previous week's close at 23.11 into a successful retest of the decent to perhaps strong weekly close support between 22.71 and 23.30. Silver closed on the high of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 24.13 will be seen. Silver continues to underperform Gold but if Gold does generate a breakout this week on the monthly chart, that dichotomy could change as Silver was the leader up until the top to this 9-year rally was found. On a weekly closing basis, next resistance area is at 24.70 (minor). Pivotal intraweek resistance is found at 26.09. If that level is broken, Silver could recapture the lead in the metals. Intraweek support will now be found between 23.74 and 23.82 and pivotal support is now at 23.30. Probabilities favor the bulls.
OIL generated a "classic" reversal week, having made a new 14-week low and then closing above the previous week's high, suggesting that the bottom of the 9-week correction has been found. The correction (if confirmed as ended) will have generated a 15.3% drop from high to low. Oil closed near the high of the week and further upside above last week's high at 69.05 is expected to be seen this week. There is no intraweek resistance of consequence until 74.23 is reached but on a daily closing basis, there is minor resistance at 71.04 and then minor to perhaps decent between 72.07 and 72.15. On the same daily closing chart, support is now minor at 67.42. If broken, a drop down to at least 66.48 would likely be seen. The bulls did have an opportunity to make a short-term bull statement on Friday as Oil got up to 69.05 and pivotal short-term daily close resistance is found at 69.25. The failure to close above that level on Friday (closed at 68.74) suggests that the traders are likely to test the support below first before moving to test the resistance above. If that is the case, selling interest will be seen around the 69.20 level ($.15 cents above Friday's high). On an intraweek basis, support is now found at 65.25 and resistance at 72.99. As of this writing, that trading range is what is expected to be seen for the next few weeks (or couple of months). As far as for Monday, watch the 69.30 and 68.12 levels as those levels are intraday resistance and intraday support. Whichever one is broken first, will give that side (bulls or bears) the edge for the next few days.
DOLLAR confirmed the failure signal given the previous week, having generated another red weekly close below the 93.07 resistance level (closed at 92.69). The Dollar closed on the low of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 92.68 will be seen this week. Minor short-term pivotal intraweek support is found at 92.48. If broken, a drop down to the 92.00 level is likely to be seen. Pivotal midterm trend support is found at 91.78 that if broken would suggest the 91.00 would be visited. To the upside and on a daily closing basis, resistance is found at 93.30. If broken, the failure signal against the bulls will be negated. Pivotal intraweek resistance is found at 93.73. The highest probability is for the Dollar to trade between 92.00 and 93.40 for the next few weeks or couple of months.
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Stock Analysis/Evaluation
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CHART Outlooks
I don't believe this is a week where any trades can be done with any degree of confidence (probability rating) involved. I was not planning any trade but I did take a look at the charts of about 50-60 stocks and one popped up in blaring lights. With the possibility/probability of a season correction occurring in September and this trade being a short, I am going to get involved if the desired entry point is reached, if for no other reason that the resistance levels are clearly defined and the risk/reward ratio is good.
SCU Friday Closing Price - 28.70
SCU is a global asset management firm that has been in strong demand over the past 18 months due to the strong rally having been seen in many companies that have taken advantage of the Stimulus program that was put in place during the pandemic. Just prior to the pandemic, the company was trading at 28.87 and then proceeded to drop down to 8.86 in just 5 weeks, reaching that low in the second week of March 2020. Since then, the stock has been rallying alongside the index market, having reached a high this past week 28.76 and closing on the high of the week, suggesting further upside above that level will be seen this week. Many companies have made new all-time highs over the past few months but SCU has not and with the seasonal correction looming, it is possible that this company may drop as its all-time intraweek high is 29.60 (29.56 on a weekly closing basis). This situation offers a clearly defined level of chart resistance (which guarantees some chart selling will be found), meaning that it is a trade than can be considered.
It is important to note that SCU spent 5 years (between 2009 and 2014) trading between 26.10 and 29.56 without either of those levels being broken and then the break that occurred was to the downside and not to the upside (all of these numbers based on weekly closes). The company then did not trade for another 4 years and when it started trading again, it went from 24.80 to 15.32 over a period of just 5 weeks (based on intraweek trading). With the company likely to trade above last week's high this week but unlikely to get above the all-time high at 29.60, it does open the door for this trade to be made, knowing that the following week (after Labor Day), selling interest is likely to be seen across the board if the seasonal correction occurs.
Sales of SCU around 29.60 and using a stop loss at 30.35 and having a minimum 26.10 objective offers a 4.6-1 risk/reward ratio. Probability rating is no better than 2.5 (on a scale of 1-5 with 5 being the highest). This is a 50-50 trade.
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Updates
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| Updates on Held Stocks |
Closed Trades, Open Positions and Stop Loss Changes |
| AMC generated a new 7-week high but then fell back to close slightly in the lower half of the week's trading range, suggesting a slightly higher probability of going below last week's low at 34.40 than above last week's high at 48.30. The fact that the stock fell back so much after such a rally suggests last week's high might be a spike high, meaning that if it is, no further upside will be seen above that level until some additional positive fundamental news is released. As it is, the original objective of the mention was the 43.09 level and that objective was not only reached but surpassed, meaning that if the stock rallies this week, consideration should be given to taking profits. The stock did generate a positive reversal day on Friday, meaning that the first course of business for the week is likely to be to the upside. Using the daily chart, a rally back up to 43.09 (and possibly as high up at 46.55) is likely to be seen this week. A fair amount of intraweek support is found between 38.76 and 39.71 that should not be broken unless the rally last week was manipulated (unlikely). Probabilities slightly favor the bulls but only for some limited upside. AU generated a new 3-week intraweek and weekly closing high and closed on the high of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 16.91 will be seen this week. The upside target is the 200-week MA, currently at 17.29. Nonetheless, keep in mind that the resistance at that level is only for a weekly close, meaning that further upside intraweek could be seen. On an intraweek basis, there is no resistance above until the 1800-18.33 level is reached and that is minor resistance from a previous low daily close. With Gold having a pivotal level to watch this week at $1835, which if broken would suggest further upside of consequence is likely to be seen, watching what Gold does is important. The stock does have a runaway gap at 19.16 that if closed, would change the chart outlook. For now though, the probabilities do not favor the bulls getting much accomplished other than a rally up to the 17.29-18.33 level. Consideration should be given to liquidate part (or all) of the positions held and take the loss. Intraweek support is now found at 15.85 that if broken, would give back the short-term edge to the bears. BTZI generated a disappointing week as the bulls were unable to follow through to the upside after the previous week's mini breakout and close on the high of the week, having closed red and on the low of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at .062 will be seen this week. By the same token, the bears were not able to generate any kind of a sell signal as a weekly close below .065 was needed and the stock closed at .066 on Friday. On a daily closing basis, a close below .058 on any day this week would be a negative. On the other side of the coin, a daily close above .078 would be a breakout. Probabilities favor another week of trading within this range. The chart suggests dependable support has been built but it also suggests the bulls do not yet have enough strength to generate a breakout. By the same token, if anything does happen, it will likely favor the bulls. CNX generated an uneventful inside week but did close green and in the upper half of the week's trading range, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 11.39 will seen this week. This was the first green close after 6 red weekly closes in a row, which does suggest that the bears may have run out of ammunition. As such, the bulls are likely to test the 200-week MA, currently at 11.75, this week. Indicative and minor to perhaps decent intraweek resistance is found between 11.89 and 12.27, meaning there is a high probability of that area being seen this week. A break above 12.27 would suggest the correction is over. On a daily closing basis, there is short-term indicative resistance at 11.50. Probabilities are high that level will be seen this week but whether it will get broken or not, is not something that cannot be determined right now. A close above that level would give the bulls a very slight edge for more upside. Short-term intraweek pivotal support is now found at 10.64. Probabilities favor the bulls this week. CRON generated an uneventful inside week but did close green and in the upper half of the week's trading range, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 6.62 will be seen this week. There is open air above until the 7.15-7.20 level is reached. The probabilities are high that level will be seen. Nonetheless, a rally up to the level will keep the bears with the overall edge. Nonetheless, any daily or weekly close above that level, will be indicative that the correction/downtrend is over and that some recovery of consequence is likely to ensue. On a daily closing basis, the 6.07-6.17 level is pivotal support. A close below that level would be bearish. Probabilities favor the bulls this week but only for the upside objective mentioned. ENG had a positive week given that failure signals against the bears were given on both the daily and weekly closing charts. On both charts, the 2.04 level had been previous support that got broken 3 weeks ago and those breaks have now been negated with Friday's close at 2.17. The stock closed on the high of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 2.19 will be seen this week. By the same token, the bulls did not generate any kind of a buy signal yet and for that to happen, both a daily and weekly close above 2.38 must occur. If that does happen, a short-term uptrend will be in the making with the 2.88 level being the next (and important as well as midterm pivotal) level that would need to be broken for the correction to be totally over and the bulls back in control, at least for the midterm. The 1.98 level is now once again pivotal intraweek support. Probabilities favor the bulls. MRGE continued lower and did break on an intraweek basis the well-established support level at .10 (got down to .095). Nonetheless, the bears were unable to follow through on the break and the stock ended up the week at .12 and in the upper half of the week's trading range, opening the door for some rally to be seen from here on in. Every intraweek high seen since March (a total of 17) has been lower than the previous one, meaning that the most recent intraweek high at .145 is indicative and pivotal. Evidently, last week's low at .095 is just as pivotal for the bears. Due to the level of support reached, I would say that the probabilities now favor the bulls. NEM generated an uneventful inside week but did close green and on the high of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 58.25 will be seen this week. The green weekly close did make the previous week's close at 56.35 into a successful retest of the two previous low weekly closes seen in the past 4 months at 54.38 and 54.76, which also means a clear support area has now been built that will likely require negative fundamentals to break. A small buy signal was given on Friday when the stock closed above the previous most recent high daily close at 57.78. Such a buy signal (though minor in nature) had not occurred for the previous 6 weeks, and had occurred only once before since May. The next level of weekly close resistance that the bulls must break in order to get some new traction is at 60.11. A weekly close above that level would be a short-term bull statement. On a daily closing basis, the bulls need a close above 62.82 to generate the same kind of statement. Pivotal intraweek support is found at 56.15. Probabilities favor the bulls for a rally this week but a bull statement is not likely to happen yet. PGEN generated an uneventful inside week but did close green on Friday and on the high of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 6.13 will be seen this week. Pivotal intraweek resistance is found at 6.29 that if broken, that a rally up to at least the 6.96-7.28 level would occur. The chart has now built decent intraweek support at 5.04 and that support has now been successfully retested 4 times, suggesting it is now dependable support that now favors a breakout occurring. Intraweek chart suggests that a rally up to at least 6.65 and possibly as high as 6.90 is to occur this week. Any weekly close next Friday above 6.20 would be a decent positive. Intraweek support is now found at 5.56 that should not be broken unless this rally fails. Probabilities favor the bulls. SNDL generated a green weekly close and on the high of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at .7887 will be seen this week. There is daily close resistance at .78 that if broken, would generate a failure signal against the bears. If that does occur, it would suggest that a bottom to this recent downtrend has been found. Further short-term pivotal resistance above that level is found at .08889 and then midterm pivotal resistance is found at .95, which if broken would be a bull statement. Pivotal daily close support is found at the previous week's low at .687. Like with a lot of the other held stocks, it seems that this week will be a positive week but still not yet indicative. SRUTF failed to follow through off of the previous week's green close and near the high of the week, having generated this past week a lower high and a red close. Nonetheless, the bulls were able to keep the stock above the weekly close support at .038, having closed at .0388 on Friday, suggesting the week was not indicative. One thing that did happen this past week is that based on a daily closing basis, the short-term parameters are clearly set with pivotal support at .0353 and short-term pivotal resistance at .0414. Whichever gets broken this week, will generate follow through in that direction. ZLAB generated a green weekly close, making the previous week's close at 134.17 a successful retest of the pivotal weekly close support at 128.42. Nonetheless and in spite of the green weekly close, the stock closed near the low of the week and further downside below last week's low at 134.43 is expected to be seen this week. Pivotal intraweek support is found at 125.71. If the stock does go below last week's low (probable) but does not break below 125.71 and then turns around back to the upside, it will be a second successful retest of the 110.73 low seen 5 weeks ago. It is important to note that with last week's high at 147.93, the 200-day MA, currently at 148.88 was tested successfully, meaning that the bears presently have the edge. Evidently, a close above the MA line from here on in, would suggest the correction is totally over and that the bulls have regained control. For now though, the bulls are on a defensive posture that could (should) be further clarified this week. Any rally from here on in above 155.77 would give the bulls back full control. Probabilities slightly favor the bulls this week for another green weekly close next Friday.
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1) SNDL - Purchased at .87. Averaged long at .905 (2 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at .761. 2) PGEN - Averaged long at 7.506 (3 mentions). Stop close only at 6.45. Stock closed on Friday at 6.00. 3) SRUTF - Averaged long at .0738 (3 mentions). No stop loss at moment. Stock closed on Friday at .0387. 4) BTZI - Averaged long at .0935 (4 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at .066. 5) ZLAB - Averaged long at 134.64 (3 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 137.26. 6) AU - Averaged long at 26.106 (6 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 16.83. 7) NEM - Averaged long at 60.137 (4 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 58.19. 8) CNX - Averaged long at 10.876 (3 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 11.06. 9) AMC - Purchased at 32.80. Stop loss at 28.65. Stock closed on Friday at 40.83. 10 ENG - Averaged long at 4.92 (2 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 2.17. 11) CRON - Averaged long at 9.146 (3 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 6.48. 12) MRGE - Purchased at .28. No stop loss at present. Stock closed at .12 on Friday. 13) CAT - Shorted at 212.80. Covered shorts at 212.18. Profit on the trade of $62 per 100 shares.
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The opinions and commentaries by Mr. De Vito are not a recommendation to buy or sell, but rather
a charting guideline, based on his own knowledge and experience, regarding the stocks he is following or
that are brought to him by others. Mr. De Vito does not presently offer a track record of his trading experiences.
No inference of success and/or failure should be assumed. The
information enclosed above, regarding his background, length of trading, and experience, is correct
but is not meant to suggest, state, or infer any future success in trading, based on his opinions. The information herewith included should only be used by investors who are aware of the risk inherent in securities trading. Mr. De Vito accepts no liability whatsoever for any loss arising from any use of the information and/or comments he supplies. |
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