Issue #732
Sep 12, 2021 | Newsletter
The newsletter with chart analysis for stocks and stock indexes |
Stock Indexes Analysis/Evaluation
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| Seasonal Correction Started? Probably!
DOW Friday closing price - 34584
Volatility was the key word this week. For example, the NASDAQ averaged daily trading ranges of about 100 points the previous week and last week it averaged in excess of 200 point daily trading ranges. Given that these trading ranges were daily occurrences (not just one day based on news), it is evident that the volatility has increased. Increased volatility does favor the bears and at the end of the week, that was proven to be correct given that on Friday, all indexes generated a red weekly close. In addition, the index has generated 6 red daily closes out of the last 8 trading days and that has not happened for the last 7 months. The last time that scenario occurred was in February and at that time, the index corrected 8.5% over a period of 3 weeks. As of Friday, the index has only corrected 2.6%, suggesting that if the same scenario that was seen in February occurs again, another 1000 points (down to 14366) could be seen now.
All indexes closed near the lows of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's lows will be seen this week (DOW below 34510, SPX below 4427 and NASDAQ below 15291). With no intraweek support found until 33741 (DOW), 4367 (SPX), and 14773 (NAZ) and no possibly catalytic economic reports scheduled for this week, a drop down to (or near) those support levels is a high probability. It also needs to be mentioned that all of the supports mentioned above are minor supports. Then again, no minor support has been broken during the past 7 months, so there is no assurance that they will be broken on this occasion. A drop down to those supports would mean that a correction of about 6% will have occurred and 5% (or less) corrections has been the norm in this bull market. As such, these are the levels that are likely to generate a generous amount of buying as the traders continue with the inured idea of "buying all dip" and so far, there has been no fundamental reason to stop doing so. On the other side of the coin though, a break of those minor supports would definitely suggest this correction has a bit more meaning. The Fed will be announcing their interest rate decision on Wednesday and that is always something traders watch closely. There is no reason to think that the Fed will be changing anything from what has been stated repeatedly the past few months. Nonetheless, if a break of the minor intraweek supports is to happen, it would be on Wednesday but only if there was a change (highly doubtful). At this time, the probabilities favor further downside but limited in nature. The minor supports are not expected to be broken.
If they are broken, the SPX and NASDAQ would target the previous all-time highs. In a normal trading market, previous all-time highs become a magnet, which more often than not is reached. This bull market (especially this year) has not been a "normal" trading market. Nonetheless, these possible downside objectives need to be mentioned so as to know what to expect if those minor intraweek supports are broken. In the SPX, the downside target would be 4232 and in the NASDAQ, it would be 14041. A drop down to that level in the NAZ, would mean an 8.9% correction, which basically would mimic what was seen in February.
At this time and thinking about the indexes looking to end the correction and trying to resume the uptrend, any positive reversal week (lower intraweek lows followed by a green weekly close) would be a sign the correction is over. Simply stated, the indexes should continue to generate red weekly closes until a bottom to the correction is found. Volatility is likely to continue for now, meaning that on an intraweek basis, rallies and some green daily closes are still likely to be seen.
The scenario explained above is a fair representation of what is happening and what the traders will be looking for in other to restart the uptrend. Probabilities do favor further downside for the next 2 weeks before any "real" return to the uptrend can begin. Even the die-hard bulls are wanting to see a correction occur as corrective phases are the norm and they do generate new support levels that can be used for limitation of risk and further upside. For this week, the minor support levels mentioned above are short-term pivotal and will likely help to define what happens the rest of the year.
To all of this, one last thing that needs to be mentioned once again. The NASDAQ now has a clear trading channel with an uptrend line with 3 points on it. If the minor but short-term pivotal support at 14773 is broken, the bottom of the channel line is currently around the 14000 level. A break of that support is likely to cause the index to drop down to that level. That is the key to the short term (over the next 2 weeks).
SILVER, which has underperformed Gold during the past few months, generated a strong sell signal, having closed on Friday at a new 14-month low weekly close (below 22.71 - Closed at 22.33). Silver closed on the low of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 22.33 will be seen this week. It is interesting to note though, that Silver did not make a new 14-month intraweek low as that level is found at 22.06, a low made last November. If the bulls can keep Silver from breaking below that low and generate any kind of a green daily close first, the negative meaning of the break would be ameliorated. Any daily close above 22.98 would negate the break and put Silver into a sideways phase until new news regarding the Dollar and inflation come out. To the downside, there is some weekly close support between 21.39 and 21.77. The support there is from numerous previous high weekly closes and therefore considered minor to decent at best. Nonetheless, if a break does occur, that area should stop further downside until more fundamental information comes out.
OIL continued the uptrend, having generated the 4th green weekly close in a row. Oil closed in the upper half of the week's trading range, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 73.12 is likely to be seen this week. Oil did generate a positive signal on the weekly closing chart, having closed at 71.97, which is above a previous low weekly close of "some" (not much) importance at 71.81. This close does suggest the bulls are in control for now but then again, the close was not totally convincing as a few minutes before the close on Friday, it was trading at 71.83. There is minor to decent intraweek resistance at 74.23, which if broken would be a "bull statement" that would likely generate enough new buying to break above the multi-year high at 76.98 what was made a few months ago. As such, the traders will be closely monitoring the 74.23 level with week. To the downside and on a daily closing basis, the 71.08 level has some meaning (not much but some) and then the 69.70 level is short-term pivotal. Any daily close below 69.70 would "deflate the balloon" and bring in new selling interest. As such and on a daily closing basis, likely pivotal support is at 69.70 and likely pivotal resistance at 73.95. With Oil closing on Friday at 71.97 (middle of that range), both the bulls and the bears seem to have equal chance this week.
DOLLAR bulls generated a bit of a bull statement, having closed on Friday at 93.25, which is above a decent weekly close resistance at 93.02. The Dollar closed on the high of the week and further upside above last week's high at 93.25 is expected to be seen this week. On an intraweek basis though, the break of weekly close resistance was not as strong as shown, given that intraweek resistance is found at 93.44. Further and definitely pivotal intraweek resistance is found at 93.73. It is evident that the recent correction/sell interest is over and with no economic reports that can affect the Dollar due out for another 3 weeks, the big question is whether the bulls can generate a new breakout or not. It is unlikely though, that any weakness of consequence will be seen during this period of time. On a daily closing basis, support will be found between 92.82 and 92.97. Any daily close below 92.82 would deflate the rally. Any weekly close below 93.02 would deflate the rally as well. The bulls have the edge but the question is whether they "have enough to break resistance or just maintain the strength until the big economic reports come out at the beginning of next month". I don't believe they do but the chart also suggests there will be very little weakness seen during this same period of time.
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Stock Analysis/Evaluation
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CHART Outlooks
I have no new mentions this week but if you look at the Held Stock Update section, you will notice that I did suggest adding positions on 2 of the presently held stocks. I do believe those stocks should be purchased this week if you have not previously purchased them before.
I will also be looking to do some day or overnight trading this week. I do believe the indexes are heading lower and short positions should be considered. I did not mention any new shorts this week because those stocks that could be shorted this week have already moved down and the stop loss versus the downside objectives the charts give, do not offer a good risk/reward ratios on holding the short positions. This is especially true in the market situation where dips are being bought consistenty, meaning downside objectives offer very low probability numbers of being reached. For day and overnight trading, intraday charts can be used that do offer risk/reward ratios that are doable. I will be giving those trades on the message board.
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Updates
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| Updates on Held Stocks |
Closed Trades, Open Positions and Stop Loss Changes |
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AAPL followed through to the downside, confirming the negative reversal seen the previous week. In addition, the stock closed below the previous all-time weekly closing high at 149.10, meaning that a failure signal was given. The stock closed on the low of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 145.76 will be seen this week. There is minor intraweek support at 144.50 and again at 141.67. On a daily closing basis, there is pivotal support at 142.45, which if broken, a 2nd failure signal would be given, which would suggest a drop down to the 200-day MA, currently at 134.00, would occur. It is evident that this is a short-term pivotal week for the stock given all the pivotal support levels close by on both the daily and weekly charts. This trade was originally put on as a day trade and unless those support levels break, finger on the trigger should be used. The 150.00 level is now resistance and as such, a stop loss is now at 150.35. If the support levels do not break within the first few days of the week and the stock goes above a previous day's high (Friday's high was 148.82), covering the short should be considered. Probabilities favor the bears but it is a very pivotal week for the short term and this is a stock that is always on the list of being bought first (before other stocks are bought). AU made another new 18-month intraweek and weekly closing low and closed near the low of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 14.57 will be seen. Nonetheless, the stock has now dropped 62% in price over the past 14 months and 45% over the past 17 weeks and is now at a weekly close support level between $14.00 and $15.00 (closed on Friday at 14.74) that has stood up strongly for 16 of the last 20 years. The fundamental picture of the company does not suggest this support level will be broken, especially since this last week the company finalized on the purchase of Corvus, which is a company that has moved up from $.80 to $3.20 in price over the past few months and that upgrades (not downgrades) the fundamental picture. Simply stated, the probabilities strongly favor the stock holding here even if Gold heads lower and rally if Gold moves higher. Pivotal daily close resistance is now found at 15.64. A close above that level will strongly suggest the worst is over. Probabilities slightly favor the bulls this week. BTZI made a new 7-week intraweek low at .0465 but then the bulls were able to rally and close in the middle of the week's trading range and just $.0002 cents below the previous week's low, suggesting that the bears will need some "new" ammunition to push the stock lower. The .05 level remains important and pivotal weekly close support and if the bulls are able to rally above last week's high at .057, it will likely mean the worst is over. Bitcoin was able to stop the recent move down and is more likely to trade sideways (or up) than down and if the bulls are able to rally intraweek above .06 and/or generate a weekly close above .0585, some recovery will likely occur. Probabilities slightly favor the bulls this week. CNX had a mixed week in which the bulls gained a small measure of control at the beginning of the week but then lost that control at the end of the week due to the economic reports that strengthened the Dollar and weakened the inflationary figures and commodities in general. The stock generated a negative reversal week, having made a new 7-week high but then closing red and on the low of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 11.75 will be seen this week. On a possible positive note, the stock had not yet generated a needed/required successful retest of the multi-month low at 10.41 that was made 5 weeks ago and now (if the stock goes below last week's low) that retest is likely to occur. The likely downside objective for the week is 11.54 given that there is an open gap at that level that does not have any fundamental reason to stay open. There is intraweek support at 11.64 that if not broken, would be a decent short-term positive. Nonetheless, the stock does show potential for a drop down as low as 11.00 and still stay with a positive short-term outlook. Other than "not closing the gap", there is no level nearby that could trigger new buying interest until the 12.98 level is broken on a daily closing basis. Probabilities favor the bears this week. CRON generated another new 10-month intraweek and weekly closing low but then closed in the middle of the week's trading range, leaving the door open for a rally above last week's high at 6.21 or below last week's low at 5.79. The stock closed at 5.98, which is below the weekly close support at 6.00, which was built 15 months ago in June 2020. Nonetheless, the close was only by $.02 cents and therefore not a convincing break of support. It is evident that the bulls need to defend this area or face new selling interest, meaning that a green close needs to occur next Friday. Daily close resistance is found at 6.16. If the bulls can close above that level any day this week, the selling pressure will ebb. It must be mentioned that the area between 6.00 and 6.75 (based on a weekly close) is an area where the stock traded in the past for a period of 3 months last year between May and August. It seems likely something like that is going to be seen now. Probabilities favor a slight rebound this week but sideways trading thereafter until new news comes out. ENB generated a 2nd red weekly close in a row, confirming that the previous week's high at 40.49 was the 2nd successful retest of the 41.13 high made in June. The stock closed on the low of the week and further downside below last week's low at 39.55 is expected to be seen this week. There is minor support at 39.44 and then again at 38.79. Below that level there is open air until 37.89 is reached, which was the first downside objective given in the mention. Given that the indexes are likely heading lower, the probabilities favor the same for the stock. Intraweek resistance is now found at 40.32. If broken, it would likely mean the bulls have regained the short-term edge and heading higher. Probabilities favor the bears this week. ENG woke up this past week given that the stock generated a buy signal on both the daily and weekly closing charts (closed above 2.17 on both charts). In addition, the stock has been averaging less than $.20 cent trading range days during the past 5 weeks and yet last week between Wednesday and Friday, it average $.34 cent trading range days. There was no news, meaning that for some reason the trading interest picked up and it was in favor of the bulls as a buy signal was given. The stock closed in the upper half of the week's trading range, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 2.38 will be seen this week. The stock has now "built" a dependable support level over the past 6 weeks and as such, the bulls can come in with some confidence in buying. There is weekly close resistance at 2.35 at 2.88 and at 3..46, the latter would represent a clear breakout. The daily closing chart shows two levels of importance at 2.86 and at 3.60. Intraweek support is now found (and is pivotal) at 1.91. Probabilities favor the bulls. LNG generated a "key" negative reversal week, having made a new all-time intraweek high and then closing below the previous week's low. Such a reversal is indicative of further short-term downside to test the established support levels below and could be a precursor of a top to this rally having been found. Natural Gas did make a new 7-year high weekly close but closed at 5.10 which is only $.17 cents above the previous week's close and is at the established 9 years weekly close resistance at $5.00. On an intraweek basis, the Gas got up to 5.64, meaning it closed near the low of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 4.88 will likely be seen this week. If that happens, the 5.64 high will likely become a spike high rally top. In the last 12 years, Natural Gas has shown intraweek tops at 6.13, at 5.01, at 4.89, at 4.98, at 6.46 and the previous one at 4.93, meaning that a top at 5.64 is clearly in that range. In every single case, Natural Gas had strong moves down after establishing a top. If Natural Gas goes below this week's low, it will need positive fundamental news to prevent a correction. As far as the stock is concerned, there is no support on the intraweek chart until 82.79 is reached. Pivotal longer term support is at 80.06. Decent intraweek resistance is now found at the $90 demilitarized zone (89.70-90.30). Probabilities favor the bears. MRGE generated an inside week but a green close 28% higher than the previous week's close ($.07 versus $.05). The stock closed on the high of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at .07 will be seen this week. There is intraweek resistance at .09, at .10 and stronger at .115. The failure to go below the previous week's low in conjunction with the green weekly close 28% above the previous week's close, strongly suggests that a bottom to this correction has been found at $.03 cents. The friend of mine that originally recommended this stock to me stated this past week that the outlook for the future has not changed and that a $2 upside objective is likely to be reached if the pipeline deal is done. I am not a fundamentalist so I cannot give you an opinion on that but based on this past week's action, I may add (average down) this week. The stock will now show decent support at $.05 cents. NEM generated a new 7-month low weekly close and closed near the low of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 54.54 will be seen this week. It is important to note though, that the stock closed on Friday at 55.22 and the previous 2 low weekly closes (in June of last year and in February of this year) were at 54.76 and at 54.38. This does suggests that unless Gold breaks down, it is likely that the stock will begin to rally from here, especially considering that when the stock closed at 54.76, Gold closed that same week at $1716 and when the stock closed at $54.38, Gold closed at $1703. Gold closed on Friday at $1763, suggesting the stock is outperforming Gold to the downside and this stock has consistently outperformed Gold to the upside during the uptrend. Intraweek support is found at 52.33 and at 54.18 (previous one). I do not expect either of those supports to break, suggesting that the worst should be about over. A daily close above 56.35 would remove some of the selling pressure and a daily close above 57.71 would generate a buy signal. I have to believe the probabilities favor the bulls this week. PGEN generated a red weekly close below the previous low weekly close at 5.62 (closed at 5.48), suggesting that a breakout is not "close around the corner". The stock did close near the low of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 5.29 will be seen this week. On a slightly positive note, the weekly close support at 5.41 remained unbroken, suggesting that the bears did not get the edge back. Probabilities favor the stock continuing to trade sideways between 5.00 and 6.50 until some new news on the company comes out. On another slightly positive note, the stock generated 5 red daily close days with lower highs each day. On Friday though, the stock went above Thursday's high and closed green. Given that pivotal daily close support at 5.32 was not broken in spite of the sell pressure, it is likely that this move down was only to generate a clear retest of the 5.01 low. I give the bulls a slight edge this week. SNDL continue to trade sideways in the .686 to .0899 trading range that it has been in for the past 5 weeks. Whichever is broken first will give the edge to one side or the other. There is no signals at this time of which of the two will occur. SRUTF generated the biggest trading range seen in the past 12 weeks, having made a new 8-week intraweek high as well as a new 5-week intraweek low. In the end, the stock closed in the middle of the week's trading range, suggesting that it was an uneventful week (based on the weekly close). Nonetheless, the wide trading range does suggest the traders are getting ready to "do something" and with the stock trading near the lows seen in the past 16-months, the bears would need a strong negative fundamental change to come out the winners. Both last week's high at ,0505 and last week's low at .0305 are now pivotal. Weekly close resistance is found at .0519 and the pivotal and trend changing at .0585. ZLAB has fallen 20% in value over the past 9 trading days, based on the weakness seen in the Chinese market. The company has actually received positive fundamental news as one of their medical products received "breakthrough therapy" designation this past week but being a volatile trading stock, the bears were in control. On Friday, the stock made a new 7-week intraweek low and was on pace to make a new 9-month weekly closing low, which would have been a major negative signal. Nonetheless and against the action seen the previous 4 days, the stock rallied 5% from the early morning low to close above the pivotal weekly close support at 128.42 (closed on Friday at 128.64), which suggests that the move down did not have any fundamental support for a breakdown. The stock did close in the lower half of the week's trading range, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 122.18 will be seen this week. Nonetheless, the action at the end of the week suggests that such a drop would be bought strongly. It is interesting to note that both Thursday and again on Friday, the stock generated positive reversal days, going below the previous day's low and closing green. As such, consideration should be given to purchasing the stock this week, especially if last week's low is broken. To the upside, there is no intraweek resistance until 137.25 is reached. Further and short-term pivotal resistance is found at 139.52. Probabilities favor the bulls.
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1) SNDL - Averaged long at .905 (2 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at .725. 2) PGEN - Averaged long at 7.506 (3 mentions). Stop close only at 6.45. Stock closed on Friday at 5.49. 3) SRUTF - Averaged long at .0738 (3 mentions). No stop loss at moment. Stock closed on Friday at .0397. 4) BTZI - Averaged long at .0935 (4 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at .0512. 5) ZLAB - Averaged long at 134.64 (3 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 128.64. 6) AU - Averaged long at 26.106 (6 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 14.78. 7) NEM - Averaged long at 60.137 (4 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 55.22. 8) CNX - Averaged long at 10.876 (3 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 11.76. 9) AAPL - Shorted at 148.47. Stop loss at 150.35. Stock closed on Friday at 146.06. 10 ENG - Averaged long at 4.92 (2 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 2.21. 11) CRON - Averaged long at 9.146 (3 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 5.98. 12) MRGE - Purchased at .28. No stop loss at present. Stock closed at .07 on Friday. 13) ENB - Shorted at 40.34. Stop loss at 40.59. Stock closed on Friday at 39.65. 14) LNG - Shorted at 90.55 and at 91.35. Averaged short at 90.95 (2 mentions). Stop loss is at 90.35. Stock closed on Friday at 86.93. 15) ZLAB - Purchased at 128.43. Liquidated at 125.56. Loss on the trade of $287 per 100 shares. 16) ARNA - Shorted at 59.28. Covered shorts at 59.56. Loss on the trade of $28 per 100 shares.
Previous Newsletters
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The opinions and commentaries by Mr. De Vito are not a recommendation to buy or sell, but rather
a charting guideline, based on his own knowledge and experience, regarding the stocks he is following or
that are brought to him by others. Mr. De Vito does not presently offer a track record of his trading experiences.
No inference of success and/or failure should be assumed. The
information enclosed above, regarding his background, length of trading, and experience, is correct
but is not meant to suggest, state, or infer any future success in trading, based on his opinions. The information herewith included should only be used by investors who are aware of the risk inherent in securities trading. Mr. De Vito accepts no liability whatsoever for any loss arising from any use of the information and/or comments he supplies. |
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