Issue #734
Oct 3, 2021
The Oasis

Newsletter


The newsletter with chart analysis for stocks and stock indexes

Stock Indexes Analysis/Evaluation


Bulls Fail to Follow Through. Correction Seemingly Not Over.

DOW Friday closing price - 34326
SPX Friday closing price - 4357
NASDAQ Friday closing price - 14791

The bulls were unable to generate follow through to the upside in the indexes after last week's rally that suggested the correction might be over. All indexes made new multi-week weekly closing lows on Friday and closed in the lower half of the weeks' trading range, suggesting the correction is not over.

The selling interest has been targeting the Tech Industry more so than the other indexes as the DOW and the SPX have both fallen 5.7% but the NASDAQ has fallen 8.5%. The dichotomy during the last few years has been the opposite but now it has shifted and if that continues for the next 8 trading days (through the next 2 important economic reports - Jobs and Inflation), it likely means that a top to the 11-year uptrend has been found. The bulls continue to buy dips as shown by the fact that 8 of the last 16 trading days the indexes have generated green daily closes. Nonetheless and during this past week that strategy failed as there were 3 red closes and only 2 green closes and neither of the green days did the indexes go above the previous day's highs.

The ISM report on Friday came in slightly better than anticipated but it did not help the bulls as new lows for the week were made "after" the report came out. This coming week, Factory Orders will be released on Monday and then mostly nothing until Friday's Jobs report. The following week on Wednesday, the CPI number comes out.

The indexes did break some clearly defined daily close support levels this week (DOW at 33919, SPX at 4354 and NASDAQ at 15002 and at 14857). The bulls in the DOW were able to negate the break on Friday, the bulls in the SPX got back to breakdown level (possible retest) but the bulls in the NASDAQ were not able to negate the break of either level. This suggests that the dichotomy in favor of the DOW will continue this week but the correction might be on a small pause with a slight down bias until the rest of the important reports come out and the economic outlook at present is better shown. As such, this week is likely to be mostly chart oriented with some clear downside targets for this week or the next 2 combined. In the DOW the downside target could be 33587 (about 750 points lower), in the SPX it could be 4258 (about 100 points lower), and in the NASDAQ it could be 14026 (about 750 points lower). Any weekly close below those levels would be indicative of much more likely to come.

To all of this, the earnings quarter begins on October 13th (the same day as CPI report comes out). This earnings quarter is going to be very important and likely pivotal as it will show how much the Delta variant of the Pandemic affected the recovery of the nation. Will the earnings be higher or lower than the previous quarter is going to be the big question?

For this week, it is likely that more of the same as seen the past few weeks will occur. The bias will be to the downside but possibly a bit more muted. Then again, the lower channel line in the NASDAQ that I mentioned a few weeks ago when the index hit the top of the channel with the 15701 high is presently around the 14200. With the index closing on Friday at 14791, potentially the index could see a drop this week of 591 points. Last week's trading range was 785 points so it certainly is a real possibility. If the same trading range is seen this week, it would mean the high for the week in the index would be around the 15000 demilitarized zone. If the bull trend is to continue, it is not likely that the index will go below that line. At this time, that is the highest probability. If that line is reached but not broken, the correction will end up being about 9.5% (very viable).

Probabilities favor the bears this week.


GOLD generated a positive reversal week, having made a new 7-week intraweek low and then turning around to close green and near the high of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at $1765 will be seen this week. This was an important week for Gold given that on the daily closing chart there was pivotal support at $1725 and having closed at $1723 on Wednesday, the bulls had to do something of note to negate that break and make some sort of bullish statement, or face further and new selling interest. Gold spiked up on Thursday and closed at $1757 and then confirmed that rally with a close on Friday at $1761. The rally put the bulls "back into the game" but without giving them an edge given that on Friday's weekly close, the bulls failed to close above the previous weekly close support that when broken brought additional selling pressure. This means that the bears still have a slight edge overall but now everything is likely to be decided over the next 2 weeks with the inflation report coming out the 13th and the Dollar being at a pivotal resistance level that requires bullish fundamental news to break. As such, the probabilities for this week favor some two-way trading but likely a red weekly close next Friday. It is doubtful that anything will be decided this week.

SILVER generated a positive reversal week, having made a new 10-month intraweek low but then closing green and near the high of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 22.86 will be seen this week. Silver did generate a positive reversal week the week before but on that week, it closed in the lower half of the week's trading range, suggesting it would go lower this past week (which it did). Nonetheless, neither reversal was enough to negate the break of weekly close support that occurred 3 weeks ago, meaning that the bulls have not yet accomplished anything other than showing that there is buying interest around the $21.50-$22 level. The bulls will need to generate a weekly close above 22.71 (closed on Friday at 22.53) to make any kind of a bull statement. As with Gold, Silver is likely to go above last week's high but then trade sideways with a slight bias to the downside for the week. If the bulls can generate 2 daily closes in a row above 22.94, the bulls will gain the edge.

OIL generated a new 6-year weekly closing high that is a bull statement as 3 previous and important/pivotal weekly closing highs resistance levels at 74.15, at 74.37 and at 75.15 were broken in the process. Oil closed near the high of the week, suggesting further upside above 76.67 will be seen this week. There is still intraweek resistance of consequence at 76.98 but the break of the weekly close resistance as well as there being no potential negative fundamental news scheduled for this week, suggests that a complete breakout will occur. The next weekly close resistance is found between 79.20 and 80.50. Nonetheless, not only are those resistance levels old, but they are considered minor given that 80.50 was a previous high weekly close but not overall pivotal and the closes around 79.20 were previous low weekly closes (never considered anything more than minor to perhaps decent resistance). The next important (and likely pivotal) resistance area is found at 86.15. The 74.15/75.15 level on a weekly closing basis is now support that if broken, would "puncture the balloon". Probabilities strongly favor further upside with the $79/$80 level being the immediate objective before any type of correction might occur.

DOLLAR made a new 12-month intraweek and weekly closing high and closed in the upper half of the week's trading range, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 94.50 will be seen this week. Nonetheless, the Dollar encountered some selling interest after reaching the high on Wednesday, given that both Thursday and Friday were red daily closes and it did close with a close on Friday at the low of the day, suggesting the first course of action on Monday will be to the downside. It was expected that selling interest would be encountered as the intraweek high for the past 15 months is 94.74 (weekly closing high at 94.64) and without further positive news, the bulls are not likely to be able to break above that pivotal resistance. As such, the Jobs report and the CPI number that come out over the next 8 trading days are going to be the catalysts for a breakout or a breakdown of the Dollar. The 93.57 level on the daily closing chart is now pivotal support. Probabilities favor the bulls this week.


Stock Analysis/Evaluation

CHART Outlooks

With the bulls failing to follow through to the upside and new lows being made in the NASDAQ, the end of the correction was not confirmed. This means further downside is likely to be seen this week. Further downside of consequence is not expected though, meaning that shorting stocks (other than on day trades) is not likely to be enough to offset the risk factor involved given that there are still 2 big reports to come out that could pivot the market in either direction, as well as the earnings quarter beginning in 2 weeks, which normally is period where stocks are bought.

I did not expect to have any mentions this week but I do have 2 of them. One is a stock that received a new buy rating this week by Jeffries and the other is one of the presently held stocks on adding positions. The new buy mention is below but the details of the held stock buy mention is in the section with comments on presently held stocks.

CHUY is a restaurant chain company that operates in 17 States. The stock has been trading since July 2012 when it started trading at $15. Upon opening, it moved up to $43 within a couple of months and then got into a 6-year downtrend that took the stock down to 17.67, a level seen at the end of 2018. The pandemic caused the stock to make a new all-time low at 8.39 in March 2020 but then when the rally started in the stock market thereafter, the stock made a new all-time high at 48.86. The rally breakout came after the stock broke above the previous high weekly close at 28.28 (all these prices based on weekly closes). Over the past 6 months, the stock has been correcting and 3 weeks ago it closed at 30.45, which has now been followed by 2 green weekly closes in a row. This means that a successful retest of the breakout level may have occurred. It has not yet been confirmed as no buy signal has yet been given on the weekly closing chart. What brought the stock to my attention is that this stock was given a buy rating by Jeffries 2 weeks ago with an upside target of $43. Upon evaluation of the chart, there are sufficient reasons to buy the stock at this time, if and when the desired entry point is reached or the stock breaks out.

CHUY made a new 7-week intraweek high this past week but then reversed to close red and in the lower half of the week's trading range, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 31.47 will be seen this week. If that occurs but the double bottom on the intraweek chart at 28.91/28.97 is not broken and is then followed by a rally above this coming week's high, the double bottom will be confirmed. If the bulls can then get above last week's high at 34.93, a bull statement will be made.

The probabilities now are leaning toward the bulls as it seems likely that the breakout area has now been successfully tested. If that is the case, and also considering that we seem to have reached a top to the Delta variant run up, it could mean that fundamentally restaurants could be seeing an increase in traffic from here on out.

To the upside and on an intraweek basis, CHUY shows no resistance until the 37.65 level is reached. That level though, it decent resistance as it has been a strong high on 2 different occasions and a strong low on one occasion, making it pivotal. By the same token, the upgrade given by Jeffries gives a $43 level objective and it is evident that if the 37.65 level is broken, there is no established resistance above until the original high seen in 2013 at 44.06 is reached. As such, the upgrade does offer a reachable objective, if and when the pivotal level is broken. Either way, if the desired entry point (around 30.50) is obtained and using a stop loss at 28.65, a rally just up to the 37.65 level would still offer a 3.8-1 risk/reward ratio, meaning that reaching the upgrade level is not necessary to make this an attractive trade.

Purchases of CHUY between 30.26 and 30.76 and using a stop loss at 28.65 and having a 37.65 objective will offer at least a 3.5-1 risk/reward ratio. My probability rating on the trade is a 3 (on a scale of 1-5 with 5 being the highest).

Updates
Monthly & Yearly Portfolio Results
Closed Trades, Open Positions and Stop Loss Changes

Status of account for 2007: Profit of $9,758 per 100 shares after losses and commissions were subtracted.
Status of account for 2008: Profit of $14,704 per 100 shares after losses and commissions were subtracted.
Status of account for 2009: Profit of $7,523 per 100 shares after losses and commissions were subtracted.
Status of account for 2010: Profit of $24,045 per 100 shares after losses and commissions were subtracted.
Status of account for 2011: Profit of $3,616 per 100 shares after losses and commissions were subtracted.
Status of account for 2012: Profit of $3,399 per 100 shares after losses and commissions were subtracted.
Status of account for 2013: Profit of $15,886 per 100 shares after losses and commissions were subtracted.
Status of account for 2014: Profit of $21,221 per 100 shares after losses and commissions were subtracted.
Status of account for 2015: Profit of $19,190 per 100 shares after losses and commissions were subtracted.
Status of account for 2016: Loss of $15,134 per 100 shares after losses and commissions were subtracted.
Status of account for 2017: Loss of $9,666 per 100 shares after losses and commissions were subtracted.
Status of account for 2018: Profit of $1,637 per 100 shares after losses and commissions were subtracted
Status of account for 2019: Profit of $13,051per 100 shares after losses and commissions were subtracted

Status of account for 2020: Loss of $16,684 per 100 shares after losses and commissions were subtracted.

Status of account for 2020, as of 9/1

Profit of $17,404 using 100 shares per mention (after commissions & losses)

Closed out profitable trades for September per 100 shares per mention (after commission)

AAPL (short) $611
ZLAB (long) $450 (3 day trades long)

Closed positions with increase in equity above last months close minus commissions.

NONE

Total Profit for September, per 100 shares and after commissions $1061

Closed out losing trades for September per 100 shares of each mention (including commission)

ARNA (short) $28
AAPL (short) $158
LNG (short) $684
ZLAB (long) $608 (4 daytrades long)

Closed positions with decrease in equity below last months close plus commissions.

NONE

Total Loss for July, per 100 shares, including commissions $1332

Open positions in profit per 100 shares per mention as of 9/30

ENB (short) $54
ENG (long) $39

Open positions with increase in equity above last months close.

CNX (long) $378
SRUTF (long) $8

Total $696

Open positions in loss per 100 shares per mention as of 9/30

RIO (long) $15

Open positions with decrease in equity below last months close.

AU (long) $354
SNDL (long) $20
NEM (long) $1476
CRON (long) $285
BTZI (long) $50
ZLAB (long) $11733
PGEN (long) $318

Total $14251

Status of trades for month of September per 100 shares on each mention after losses and commission subtracted.

Loss of $13,826

Status of account/portfolio for 2021, as of 9/30

Profit of $3,578

per 100 shares.



Updates on Held Stocks

AU made a new 3-week high and closed on the high of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 16.23 will be seen this week. Using the daily chart, a buy signal as well as a failure signal against the bears was generated. The next area of intraweek pivotal resistance is found at 17.28 (17.08 on a daily closing basis). Further weekly close resistance is found at the 200-week MA, currently at 17.44. Nonetheless, a break above 17.28 will leave open air above until 18.33 is reached. That level is a previous low daily close support that is now resistance. To the downside, intraweek support will be found at 15.60 and at 15.24. The stock did gap up on Wednesday between 15.18 and 15.36 which means that if another gap occurs before that gap is closed, it will be an additional sign that not only has the bottom of the correction been found but if the stock can close above the 200-week MA on Friday, that a recovery rally would likely occur. Probabilities favor the bulls this week.

BTZI generated a green weekly close, which is the first in the last 5 weeks. Unfortunately for the bulls, they were unable to confirm the green weekly close as being meaningful given that the .06 level was not broken intraweek (high was .06) and the bulls remained below the .0545 level of pivotal daily and weekly close resistance (closed at .0495). The stock closed slightly in the lower half of the week's trading range, suggesting a slightly higher probability of going below last week's low at .045 than above last week's high at .06. Simply stated, it was an uneventful week in spite of the green weekly close. Probabilities slightly favor the bears this week.

CNX generated a green weekly close and above an established weekly close resistance level at 12.00. The stock closed in the middle of the week's trading range, suggesting equal chance of going above last week's high at 13.15 or below last week's low at 11.96. The action seen does suggest that the correction is totally over. On the other side of the coin, the bulls failed to generate a failure signal against the bears, having closed at 12.62 and the previous low weekly close that when broken caused the stock to drop to 10.41 is at 12.61. This suggests that the bears have lost control but still may have a short-term edge. The key level at this time is last week's high as well as the 13.04 level where the 200-day MA is currently located. The stock has traded below that line for the past 11 weeks and a confirmed break above the line would shift the edge back to the bulls. Short-term pivotal intraweek support is found at 12.22 and pivotal at 11.42. The 12.22 level is pivotal "this week" because there is a potential bullish flag formation with that level as the bottom of the flag. By the same token, the 200-day MA at 13.04 is clear resistance. Whichever of those 2 levels gets broken first will generate further movement in that direction. Probabilities slightly favor the bulls.

CRON continued to move lower keeping the downtrend intact. Short-term pivotal resistance is now found at 6.08 and short-term pivotal support is found at 5.17. Having closed at 5.64 on Friday, the stock is in the middle of those two levels. There is no news on the company or on Cannabis for this week and the company does not report earnings until November 5, meaning that the probabilities favor more of the same happening this week. At least, the action has been very limited in nature the past 5 weeks and that is likely to continue this week.

ENB generated a new 13-week intraweek high but failed to confirm any change in the outlook, having closed red on Friday and still below the short-term pivotal weekly close resistance at 40.03, having closed at 40.03. The stock closed slightly in the lower half of the weeks' trading range, suggesting a slightly higher probability of going below last week's low at 39.62 than above last week's high at 40.57. Probabilities very slightly favor the bears due to the indexes likely to head lower but the reality is that the stock has no clear direction at this time and probably won't until its earnings report comes out on October 26. Pivotal resistance at 41.13 and pivotal support at 38.58.

ENG generated a minor but likely indicative breakout, having closed on Friday above 2 weekly close resistance levels at 2.35 and 2.88. The latter is more significant as it was resistance that lasted almost 4 years before being broken and once broken, opened the door for a rally to the 9.40 level. The stock did close near the high of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 3.37 will be seen this week. A breakout like this occurred the 3rd week of June with a weekly close at 3.46, which is now considered pivotal resistance. On that occasion though, the breakout was negated 2 weeks later, meaning that this breakout is not yet dependable. This is especially true given the volatility seen this past week without any news (stock traded an average of .80 cents daily trading ranges the last 3 days of the week and yet the average daily trading range for the past 3 months has been less than .30 cents). The interest is definitely on the side of the bulls (having broken out) but there is not yet enough tangible proof that more upside is to come. Key level to watch this week is the 3.60-3.67 area on a daily closing basis. There is a double high daily close at 3.60/3.54 and the 200-day MA is currently at 3.67. If those levels are broken, there is open air above until 3.84 is reached (minor resistance) and then absolutely nothing until the 5.00-5.19 level is reached. Resistance levels mentioned are based on weekly closes. If a breakout does occur, the stock will likely move up to 3.84, drop back down to test the breakout at 3.60 and the continue higher to $5. Pivotal daily close support is now found at 2.67. Any daily close below that level will defuse the bull action. Probabilities favor the bulls.

MRGE generated a positive spike high reversal week, having broken below last week's low at .036 (low this past week was .035) and then spiking up to .11.5 and finally closing on Friday at .075 (middle of the week's trading range. The stock did generate a new 4-week weekly closing high and in the process generated a new buy signal as well as making the previous week's close at .057 into a successful retest of the multi-month weekly closing low at .05. The action seen does strongly suggest the correction is over and that a bottom has been found. There is quite a bit of intraweek and weekly close resistance between .125 and .135, which includes the 200-week MA, currently at .1267 and the high weekly close seen in December 2018 at .13. That high weekly close lasted 14 months before being broken. That area is the upside objective of this breakout. Unfortunately, that area is not likely to be broken until some tangibly positive fundamental news is received. On a daily closing basis, the .07 level is now likely to be support, meaning that the stock is likely to trade between .07 and .125 for the next few weeks. Probabilities favor the bulls.

NEM continued lower on a weekly closing basis, having generated another red weekly close (the 4th in a row) and closing near the low of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 53.26 will be seen this week. This was surprising action given the rally in Gold and the other held Gold stock (AU) both generated an eventful upside week. On a not so negative note, the stock only closed $.30 cents lower than the previous week, meaning the selling interest is waning. There is only one support level below and it is on an intraweek basis at 52.33. If the stock does not go below last week's low and rallies above 55.67, Friday's low will become a successful retest of the 53.26 low and a new buy signal will be given. With Gold likely to go higher this week, going below last week's low is not a high probability, especially considering there has been no new news and this stock being more of a leader than a follower of Gold stocks during the past year.

PGEN continued to go lower, making yet another new 11-month intraweek and weekly closing low. The stock got down to the intraweek support level mentioned last week at 4.90 with a low at 4.85 but then turning around to close very slightly in the lower half of the week's trading range, suggesting a slightly higher chance of going below last week's low at 4.85 than above last week's high at 5.47. Nonetheless and on Friday morning, the company announced positive results on one of its clinical trials on a Diabetic 1 treatment drug and that generated a positive reversal day and a close at the high of the day, suggesting the first course of action for the week will be to the upside above Friday's high at 5.15. This is a positive fundamental news and when combined with a strong psychological support level at $5 and having reached the next intraweek support level at 4.90, the probabilities now favor the bulls for some type of recovery phase. The first level of resistance (minor but somewhat indicative) is 5.32 on a daily closing basis. That was the previous low daily close seen in July and that lasted 2 months before being broken and generating the new multi-month lows. A confirmed daily close above that level, will take away ammunition from the bears. Pivotal daily close resistance is at 5.60. A break above that level will generate a new buy signal and confirm the correction is over. Daily close support is now found at 4.99, which if broken, would be a negative, especially considered the good news released on Friday. Probabilities favor the bulls.

SNDL generated a new 5-month intraweek and weekly closing low and closed on the low of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at .0655 will be seen this week. Intraweek support is found at .065, which if broken would generate further downside, likely to .05 level. Same problem and scenario facing the other Cannabis stocks is being seen here. By the same token, there has been very little trading or action seen in the stock for the past 13 weeks as the trading ranges have been minimal (averaging around .$07 per week), compared to the action previously for the entire year when the weekly trading ranges were mostly in excess of $.30 per week. This means that the stock is trading at this moment at a level where there is very little interest in either direction. The .72 level is pivotal resistance. If broken, it is likely the worst is over. Probabilities favor the bears.

SRUTF had a very uneventful week but did go slightly below the previous week's low and then closed near the high of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at $.04 will be seen this week. If that occurs, last week's low at $.0343 will become a successful retest of the double bottom at the $.03 level. Such a chart scenario could engender some new chart buying interest. Pivotal resistance is found at $.0505.

ZLAB generated the 4th red weekly close in a row and closed on the low of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 101.87 will be seen this week. The stock has dropped in value 34% over these past 4 weeks. There are 2 reasons for the drop in the value of the stock: 1) Shares of Chinese companies (across the board) have fallen recently based on regulatory fears. It has affected all Chinese companies. 2) The company has been on a strong cash burn over the past few months due to purchases of other companies and increased spending on developing their unique and highly-valued-for-the-future bio-pharma products. Nonetheless, ZLAB has been positively compared with AMZN, a company that for many years saw a negative income as the CEO was building for the future. Overall, the prospects for the company's future are very high. The only problem is the short-term future outlook. The stock closed just below the 100-week MA, currently at 103.33 (closed at 102.75) and if a green close occurs next Friday, it will be seen as a successful retest of that line. That line has never been broken in the history of the stock. If a red close occurs, the downside target becomes the previous all-time weekly closing high at 93.00, a level that when broken a year ago in "October" caused the stock to rally to $193 in just 9 weeks. The $100 level should offer some psychological support, meaning that the downside possibilities (from Friday's closing price) are likely limited to no more than another $9 lower. Any daily close above 116.00 will be a signal that the bottom has been found but any break intraweek break above 112.16 would likely stop the selling interest. This is a strong fundamental company with a very bright future and this area (between $90 and $100 is an area of great interest to buy.


1) SNDL - Averaged long at .905 (2 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at .670.

2) PGEN - Averaged long at 7.506 (3 mentions). Stop close only at 6.45. Stock closed on Friday at 5.11.

3) SRUTF - Averaged long at .0738 (3 mentions). No stop loss at moment. Stock closed on Friday at .038.

4) BTZI - Averaged long at .0935 (4 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at .0495.

5) ZLAB - Averaged long at 134.64 (3 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 102.71.

6) AU - Averaged long at 26.106 (6 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 16.23.

7) NEM - Averaged long at 60.137 (4 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 53.56.

8) CNX - Averaged long at 10.876 (3 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 12.63.

9) RIO - Purchased at 66.97. Stop loss at 64.14. Stock closed on Friday at 66.81.

10 ENG - Averaged long at 4.0325 (4 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 3.18.

11) CRON - Averaged long at 9.146 (3 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 5.56.

12) MRGE - Purchased at .28. No stop loss at present. Stock closed at .075 on Friday.

13) ENB - Shorted at 40.34. Stop loss at 40.59. Stock closed on Friday at 40.03.

14) ZLAB - Day Traded the stock 5 times this week (3 profitable trades and 2 losing trades). Profit of $316 per 100 shares.


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Disclaimer

The opinions and commentaries by Mr. De Vito are not a recommendation to buy or sell, but rather a charting guideline, based on his own knowledge and experience, regarding the stocks he is following or that are brought to him by others. Mr. De Vito does not presently offer a track record of his trading experiences. No inference of success and/or failure should be assumed. The information enclosed above, regarding his background, length of trading, and experience, is correct but is not meant to suggest, state, or infer any future success in trading, based on his opinions.

The information herewith included should only be used by investors who are aware of the risk inherent in securities trading. Mr. De Vito accepts no liability whatsoever for any loss arising from any use of the information and/or comments he supplies.




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