Issue #737
Oct 24, 2021 | Newsletter
The newsletter with chart analysis for stocks and stock indexes |
Stock Indexes Analysis/Evaluation
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| Bulls in Control. Uptrend Resuming?
DOW Friday closing price - 35677
The DOW and the SPX made new all-time intraweek and weekly closing highs, suggesting the uptrend has resumed. Nonetheless, the NASDAQ did not do the same and that is an event that suggests that something has changed given that it has been the leader each and every time before (in the last 13 years) in making new all-time highs. All indexes closed on or near the highs of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's highs (DOW at 35765, SPX at 4559, and NAZ at 15497) will be seen this week.
The dichotomy between the DOW and the NASDAQ is going to be the topic of discussion among traders this week, especially since this is the week that the big NAZ stocks report earnings (FB - Monday pm, GOOGL - Tuesday pm, AMZN and AAPL - Thursday pm). All (except AMZN) are expected to show much better earnings than a year ago. If there are no negative surprises and the dichotomy favoring the NASDAQ continues, it should mean the bull trend continues unabated. Nonetheless, if the bull market is beginning to waver but not yet ready to end, interest will shift to the small cap stocks that are underpriced. This bull market has gone on for 13 years and never before has there been a bull market that has lasted more than 11 years. In addition and in most cases, the big stocks are trading well above the 200-week MA's, more so than ever before. As such, the action this week in the dichotomy between the two indexes will begin to shed light on whether this bull market is plowing ahead full-force or whether changes suggesting that an end to the bull market is on the horizon (less than a year away).
Another thing to watch for this week is whether the new all-time highs in the DOW and the SPX are confirmed or not. The bulls need to close above the previous all-time weekly closes (DOW at 35515 and SPX at 4536) next Friday or the breakout will be for naught. The all-time high weekly closes are more important than the previous all-time high daily closes (DOW at 35625 and SPX at 4536) but any confirmed daily close (2 days in a row) below these levels will put doubt into the minds of the traders. This does suggest that the bulls need to keep this immediate rally alive starting Monday and throughout the week. In that respect, this week is important on a chart basis.
Everything is favoring the bulls though. The breakaway/runaway gap formation in the DOW and the SPX have now been confirmed and as such and chart-wise, there are no negatives at this time. By the same token, this coming week does have quite a few economic reports of importance as well (not just earnings reports). On Tuesday, the Consumer Confidence reports comes out and that always has the potential to be catalytic. It is expected to come out at 108. Anything below that number will be a cause of concern, especially since that would be the lowest number since March. The Durable Goods number comes out on Wednesday and the new GDP number comes out on Thursday. All those reports do have some catalytic power if way out of line.
The probabilities do favor the bulls as it is on the shoulders of the bears to prove otherwise. Right now, the question is more about what companies to invest in rather than whether to invest in the market at all.
SILVER confirmed the failure signals against the bulls given last week with another green weekly close on Friday. Silver did close in the upper half of the week's trading range, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 24.76 will be seen this week. If that does occur and the 24.80 level is broken, that would be a tangible and strong signal that no further downside is to be seen and that the bulls have gained the edge. Above 24.80, there is no resistance until 25.31 and then at 25.95 are reached and both of those intraweek resistance levels are considered minor. The reality is that if 24.80 is broken, the upside objective for the next 4-8 weeks would likely be 27.82. Intraweek support is now found at 23.81 and short-term pivotal at 23.08. A break below 23.08 would suggest that for the rest of the year, Silver would likely trade between 22.95 and 25.95. Probabilities do favor the bulls this week.
OIL continued the uptrend, having made another new 7-year intraweek and weekly closing high. Oil closed on the high of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 83.76 will be seen this week. It is important to note that Thursday's low at 80.78 has now become a successful retest of the breakout above 79.67 (based on the daily closing chart) and that successful retest now suggests that it will be clear sailing up to 86.15 before any new interest by the bears is seen. Oil is presently in a bull trend and with the fundamentals presently supporting higher prices, more upside is highly likely to be seen. The 79.20/79.67 level (on a daily and weekly closing basis) has now become decent and likely pivotal support. Probabilities strongly favor the bulls this week.
DOLLAR generated a confirmed sell signal on the daily closing chart, having broken the daily close support at 93.79 on Wednesday and generating two subsequent closes below that level on Thursday and Friday. Nonetheless, the sell signal did not get confirmed on the weekly chart as a close on Friday below 93.50 was needed in order to generate a failure signal on the weekly closing chart (closed at 93.61). Nonetheless, the bulls have now lost the momentum they had obtained the previous weeks, meaning that some positive fundamental news is needed to start a new rally. As such, the Dollar is sitting in "no-man's land" awaiting further action or news. The Dollar did close near the low of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 93.50 is expected to be seen this week. Any confirmed daily close below 93.57 would give the edge to the bears. Probabilities slightly favor the bears.
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Stock Analysis/Evaluation
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CHART Outlooks
In looking for stocks to buy this week, I did run into an article from Motley Fool where they were giving 13 companies they feel are poised to make a run to the upside. Using the charts, I evaluated all of these stocks and I found one that caught my attention in a big way. That is the mention this week. I did see another 2-4 stocks they were mentioning that also looked attractive but none of them offered the type of chart formation that had a good risk/reward ratio or a high probability rating, at least not where they closed on Friday. I will be keeping an eye on them this week and if they reach a level where I feel they can be bought with some confidence, I will give those mentions in the message board.
QTWO Friday Closing Price - 79.92
QTWO provides cloud-based digital banking solutions to regional financial institutions in the U.S. The stock started trading in March 2014 at $15 and since then it has been mostly straight up, having reached a high of 148.56 in February of this year. During this 7-year period, the stock has seen a total of 3 corrections of note, with the present correction of 50.6% being the strongest.
QTWO got down to the 200-week MA in March of last year when the market took that big downturn due to the pandemic. The MA, currently at 78.48, was once again reached the previous week with an intraweek drop to 73.51 but a positive reversal occurred and the stock closed that week at 81.59. The stock generated a negative reversal week this past week, having gone above the previous week's high but then closing red and near the low of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 78.77 will be seen this week. Having been in a 37-week downtrend from the all-time high and having reached the major long term MA line, a retest of the low seen the previous week is needed/required before the bulls step in to stop the correction/midterm downtrend and begin a recovery with the possibility of resuming the uptrend that began 7 years ago. All corrections that have occurred since the company started trading have resulted in a new all-time high being made, meaning that if that pattern continues, this could be a big winning trade.
To the downside and on an intraweek basis, QTWO does not have any "established" support other than the recent low at 73.51. Nonetheless, the 200-week MA is always seen as major support unless the fundamental picture has changed and in perusing the news of the company, I see no such change having occurred, meaning that the 73.51 level has to be considered pivotal support. Using the daily chart, there is intraweek support at 76.90 and at 75.53. It is likely one (or both) of those levels will be seen this week with the former being a decent probability and the latter being only a possibility. The stock reports earning on Wednesday, November 3 and it is likely that report will be pivotal for the midterm future of the company.
To the upside and on an intraweek basis, QTWO shows minor resistance at 82.32, at 87.52, and at 92.34, with the latter being the strongest of the 3 but still not a very important or strong support. The reason for that is that the 200-day MA is currently at 102.62 and if the stock has found a bottom to the correction, a rally back up to that line is highly probable to occur. The decent to perhaps strong resistance is found at 108.89 as that has been the high over the past 7 months. That level is not likely to be broken unless the stock is looking to resume the uptrend. Then again, the 148.56 all-time high made in February has never been tested, meaning that a rally above 108.89 is not out of the question at all. This is especially considering that there was no change of fundamentals that occurred to the company to support the 50% fall in price, other than the fact that when the stock was up at that high price, many rating companies lowered the price objectives (main reason the stock fell in price). Nonetheless, this mention will not be offering a price objective above the $105 level. By the same token, with that objective, the risk/reward ratio will still be a whopping 8-1.
Purchases of QTWO around the 77.00 level and using a stop loss at 73.41 and having an objective of 105.00, offers an 8-1 risk/reward ratio. My rating on the trade is a 4.25 (on a scale of 1-5 with 5 being the highest).
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Updates
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| Updates on Held Stocks |
Closed Trades, Open Positions and Stop Loss Changes |
| AU extended is recent rally, having generated the 3rd green weekly close in a row. The break above the 200-week MA, currently at 17.58, has now been confirmed, meaning the line is once again dependable support on a weekly closing basis. The stock is nearing another short-term pivot point at the 200-day MA, currently at 20.27, which is going to require Gold to continue above the $1837 level in order to be broken. In addition, there is a minor to decent intraweek resistance level at 20.82 that further strengthens the resistance in this area, meaning that this week is short term pivotal. A break above 20.82 offers "open air" above until the 23.12-23.75 area. As a "trader" consideration should be given for liquidation of the positions above the $20 and repurchase around the $17.50 level as that is the most likely scenario at this time. Nonetheless, if Gold can get above $1837 this week, positions should be held. BTZI generated a wild week in which at one point the stock more than doubled in price from the previous week's close (went up from .0849 to .1825). Nonetheless, in the end (close on Friday), the stock only closed 34% above the previous week's close, meaning that a spike up rally occurred, ending with a close in the lower half of the week's trading range, suggesting that on an intraweek basis, further downside below last week's low at .0795 is likely to be seen this week. Other than Bitcoin rallying and the company announcing the opening of a new repair facility for its bitcoin miners, there has been no tangible news that would support the immediate rally to the $.18 cent level. This means that the probabilities now favor the stock getting into a trading range between the 200-day MA, currently at .0823 and the .15/.16 cent level for the next few weeks or months, until new news comes out. A double top on the daily closing chart has now been formed at .165/.168 that will require fundamental news to break. The fundamental news could be Bitcoin continuing to rally upward, but at this point that is not a given as Bitcoin failed to make a new all-time high weekly close this week, in spite of the fact that a new all-time intraweek and daily closing highs were made. The action does suggest that a positive change has occurred and that buying dips will now become more prevalent than selling rallies. Nonetheless, as a trader, consideration should be given to liquidating positions on rallies up to the .16 level and purchasing around the .08 level. CALM generated a green week and a close on the high of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 36.01 will be seen this week. The green weekly close did confirm that the previous week's low at 34.19 is now a successful retest of the pivotal intraweek support 33.83. There is open air above until the 37.17/37.37 level is reached and it is expected that will be the upside objective this week. Nonetheless and in spite of the positive week, the bulls were not able to accomplish any new buy signals, meaning the short-to-midterm outlook remains clouded. In order for the bulls to make a tangible bull statement, a daily close above 37.85 needs to occur. On the other side of the coin, any daily close below 34.54 will do the opposite. Probabilities favor the bulls this week. CHUY generated a new sell signal on the weekly closing chart, having closed on Friday below the double low on the weekly closing chart at 30.54/30.45 (closed at 29.58). Nonetheless, the break of intraweek support occurred on Wednesday but was followed by 2 green daily closes on Thursday and Friday, meaning that no follow through occurred and suggesting that the break may have been more "trader generated" than a new negative fundamental change. As it is, there was pivotal weekly close support at 28.82 (the previous 3-year weekly closing high that when broken, generated the rally to 49.99) was not broken and that also suggests that the break of the double low is not indicative of new weakness. The stock did close in the upper half of the week's trading range, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 30.52 will be seen this week. If that occurs, this break of support will be negated. It must be mentioned that just 4 weeks ago, a rating company (Jeffries) did give a buy rating on the stock with an objective of $41 and there has been no negative fundamental news to change that outlook. On a daily closing basis, support is decent between 28.89 and 29.02. A close below that level any day this week will be a negative. Probabilities favor the bulls. CNX bears were unable to generate further downside after the previous week's close near the lows of the week and the stock ended up generating a new 17 week high and closing on the high of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 14.69 will be seen this week. The stock finds itself at a short-term pivot point on the intraweek chart at 15.15 and on the daily and weekly closing chart at 14.75, all of which will be "in play" this week. A break above those 2 levels will put the bulls in commitment situation where the 3-year intraweek high at 15.75 and the 3-year weekly closing high at 15.62 will need to be broken. As such, this coming week is short-term important as the action will either put the stock in a position to go up to $16 or in a position to fall back down to 12.87 and perhaps even as low as 11.54. One additional factor that will come into play this week that is of importance. Using the monthly closing chart (this coming Friday), the 14.70 level is very important as it is the 3-year monthly closing high. A close above that level on Friday will generate a new buy signal on the monthly closing chart and that will make a rally up to the 16.07 level a very high probability. Nonetheless, it is also important to note that the entire area between 16.07 and 17.89 (based on the monthly close) is a brick wall that would require a clear positive fundamental change to bridge. Simply stated, taking profits around the $16 area (when reached) should be strongly considered. Daily close support is found between 13.68 and 13.39. Nonetheless and considering where the stock closed on Friday, it behooves the traders to generate a green close on Monday (and hopefully above 14.75) because if that does not happen, it will weaken the chart. Probabilities do favor the bulls. CRON generated a green weekly close and a new 4-week intraweek high but nothing of consequence was accomplished by the bulls other than possibly suggest that a bottom to this correction may have been found. The stock did close in the upper half of the week's trading range, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 6.05 is likely to be seen this week. Pivotal daily close resistance is found between 6.00 and 6.16, which if broken would suggest that no further downside is to be seen. Daily close support should now be found between 5.60 and 5.72. This week is looking to be short-term pivotal for the stock. Probabilities very slightly favor the bulls. ENG unexpectedly generated a negative reversal week and another red weekly close and near the low of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 2.18 will be seen this week. There was no news to support the red action and that is suggestive that the bears have the edge going into the earnings report that comes out next week on November 4th. No support of consequence was broken but the action suggests that the stock will once again visit the 2.00 area, a level that has been pivotal the past 5 months. Short-term pivotal intraweek resistance is now found at last week's high at 2.67. Probabilities favor the bears keeping the edge until the earnings report comes out but no level of consequential support is likely to be broken. MRGE generated another inside week (the 2nd in a row), meaning that nothing happened. The recent low at .035 has not yet seen a retest of that level and if the stock does get below last week's low, that could end up being the required/needed retest. In addition, the fall back was not a surprise as there has been no new news and the stock did reach an intraweek resistance level of consequence at .13/.1375 with the previous week's high at .139. It is expected that some base building action is to be seen. NEM, much like Gold and AU, generated further upside but no resistance level was broken. Once again, the stock closed in the upper half of the week's trading range, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 59.26 will be seen this week. Pivotal intraweek resistance is found at 60.13. Intraweek support is found between 56.15 and 56.55. With Gold looking supported at this time, probabilities continue to slightly favor the bulls. On a daily closing basis, the next resistance level is found between 59.67 and 60.00. Pivotal resistance is found at 62.82. In looking at the weekly closing chart and all the lows and highs made during the past 16 months, upside objective is the $67 level, to be reached over the next 3-6 months. Probabilities favor the bulls. RIO received a downgrade this week and the stock responded with an 8% drop in price. Nonetheless, the downgrade price objective given is $70 and the stock closed on Friday at 65.88, meaning that the possibilities/probabilities of a rally back up to where it was trading the previous week still exist. As far as the chart is concerned, the stock did extend the downtrend, having made a new 11-month weekly closing low and closing near the low of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 64.87 will be seen this week. On a positive note, the weekly close break out level from 14 months ago (a level that thrust the stock up to $95) is found at 64.42 (65.43 on a daily closing basis) and given that was not broken this week, the probabilities do favor the bulls this week, at least as far as the weekly close. Pivotal daily close resistance is found at 71.09. Probabilities favor the stock trading between 64.50 and 70.50 for the next few weeks, if not the rest of the year. SNDL has been stuck in "neutral" for the past 5 weeks with weekly closes at .673, .670. .681, .656 and Friday's close at .659. The company reports earnings on November 10th and until then, this sideways trading is likely to continue. The .6635 level is a proven area of support that goes back to November as that was the level that when broken to the upside, generated a move to the 2.08 level within a few months. As such and as long as no further downside on a weekly closing basis occurs, the probabilities favor the bulls overall. Minor but short-term important support is found at .61 and major support at .50. Minor but short-term pivotal resistance is found at .75 and decent at .95. As such, a .50-.95 cent trading range for the rest of the year is what is expected, with a small to decent possibility that it will be a .60 to .95 trading range. Probabilities do not favor either side this week. SRUTF is exactly in the "same boat" as SNDL given that it too has been stuck in neutral for several weeks and it is not expected anything will happen until the big Cannabis stocks start making some decisive action. The high and low seen 6 weeks ago at .0505 and at .0305 remains the parameters for something happening. A break above or below the high and low seen that week will generate movement in that direction. Otherwise, the stock is likely to continue to trade within that range. ZLAB continued lower, having made yet another new 11-month intraweek and weekly closing low. The stock closed very slightly in the upper half of the week's trading range, suggesting a slightly higher chance of going above last week's high at 102.88 than below last week's low at 97.76. The stock is now showing 7 weeks in a row of red weekly closes and that has "never" happened before in the history of the stock. By the same token, the selling strength has diminished substantially given that the past 4 red weekly closes have been minor in nature (102.75, 102.35, 102.00 and Friday's close at 100.76). The company reports earnings two weeks from tomorrow (November 8th) and that is likely to be a catalyst. Probabilities favor the bulls this week given that the stock has dropped 36% in value over the past 7 weeks without any negative news. In addition, what the company has been working successfully on for the past year has already been lauded as breakthrough medicine that will likely generate huge increases in income when it begins to be marketed. It is evident (by the action the past 4 weeks) that the bears have run out of ammunition and given that the earnings report will be released in 11 trading days, it does suggest that some short covering action will likely start to be seen this week prior to the report. On a weekly closing basis, the 100-week MA, currently at 104.61, is a big key. A close above that level will suggest the worst is over. On an intraweek basis, pivotal resistance is found at 107.98. If broken, there is open air on the intraweek chart to 135.65/137.20 level. Probabilities slightly favor the bulls this week.
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1) SNDL - Averaged long at .905 (2 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at .659. 2) CHUY - Averaged long at 30.75. Stop loss now at 29.13. Stock closed on Friday at 29.56. 3) SRUTF - Averaged long at .0738 (3 mentions). No stop loss at moment. Stock closed on Friday at .036. 4) BTZI - Averaged long at .0935 (4 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at .114. 5) ZLAB - Purchased at 99.21. Averaged long at 125.7825 (4 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 100.77. 6) AU - Averaged long at 26.106 (6 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 19.52. 7) NEM - Averaged long at 60.137 (4 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 57.61. 8) CNX - Averaged long at 10.876 (3 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 14.66. 9) RIO - Purchased at 66.97. Stop loss at 64.14. Stock closed on Friday at 65.88. 10 ENG - Averaged long at 4.0325 (4 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 2.25. 11) CRON - Averaged long at 9.146 (3 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 5.65. 12) MRGE - Purchased at .28. No stop loss at present. Stock closed at .098 on Friday. 13) ZLAB - Purchased at 99.82. Liquidated at 99.70. Loss on the trade of $12 per 100 shares. 14) CALM - Purchased at 34.99. Stop loss at 33.65. Stock closed on Friday at 35.95.
Previous Newsletters
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The opinions and commentaries by Mr. De Vito are not a recommendation to buy or sell, but rather
a charting guideline, based on his own knowledge and experience, regarding the stocks he is following or
that are brought to him by others. Mr. De Vito does not presently offer a track record of his trading experiences.
No inference of success and/or failure should be assumed. The
information enclosed above, regarding his background, length of trading, and experience, is correct
but is not meant to suggest, state, or infer any future success in trading, based on his opinions. The information herewith included should only be used by investors who are aware of the risk inherent in securities trading. Mr. De Vito accepts no liability whatsoever for any loss arising from any use of the information and/or comments he supplies. |
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