Issue #735
Oct 10, 2021 | Newsletter
The newsletter with chart analysis for stocks and stock indexes |
Stock Indexes Analysis/Evaluation
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| Direction Not Clear. Traders Awaiting Catalyst!
DOW Friday closing price - 34746
The bulls ended up having the "winning hand" this past week given that all indexes closed green and either in the upper half (or near) the highs of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's highs will be seen this week. Nonetheless, the gains and weekly closes were not in unison as the DOW appreciated 1.2% in value, the SPX appreciated .8% in value but the NASDAQ only appreciated .02% in value, meaning the rally was not a market rally but a dichotomy rally that still favors the bears. Economic reports continued to favor the bears as Durable Goods came in slightly lower than expected and the Jobs Report was quite a bit lower than expected. The market generally ignored those numbers this week, given that the indexes ended up rallying off of those negative reports. As such, the results this week were unclear as to what to expect from here on in.
On a chart basis, the bulls were unable to accomplish anything more than a pause in the correction as none of the indexes broke any resistance levels in either chart (daily or weekly) in spite of the rally. As such, it can be said that the week was meaningless and that the traders await further news before deciding what to do.
The important economic number to watch this week is the CPI number (inflation) that comes out Wednesday morning (expected to be .3%). Retail Sales also comes out on Friday with expectation of it being -.5%. The CPI number has been important these past few months and this particular number could be even more important for the simple reason that none of the other important reports that have come out this month (ISM Index and Jobs) ended up being catalytic. The traders are trying to find a direction to follow but none of the reports until now has been catalytic enough to give them clear direction. The earnings reports for the 2nd quarter also start coming out this week (starting Wednesday) and that has been a positive catalyst for the bulls during the past couple of years. The reports due out this week are mostly financial with JPM, C, BAC, MS, WFC and GS scheduled. DAL and AA also report. As such, this week (and likely for the next two weeks), the traders will be more dependent on news than on charts. This is especially true now that it seems the latest version of the virus (Delta) seems to have reached its peak infection period and has started to come down, meaning the virus itself will generate less negatives than seen the past 2 months. Simply stated, the bulls should have a slight edge for now, especially considering that seasonally, October is a rally month.
Nonetheless and having said all of that, the charts will still play an integral part given that there are now clearly defined support and resistance levels. Trading within that range is not going to be indicative but breaks of either the pivotal support or resistance levels in place at this time will likely generate aggressive movement in whatever direction is broken. In the DOW and on a daily closing basis, there is short-term resistance at 34869, a bit stronger between 34996 and 35114 and pivotal at 35625. A break above the first resistance will generate the first buy signal given since August. The middle area is decent resistance that should not be broken unless the bulls have a "clear edge" fundamentally. A break of the latter would mean a new leg up is occurring. That level is unlikely to be in play (if at all) until all the important earnings reports are out.
In the SPX and on a daily closing basis, there is resistance at the 4000 demilitarized zone (up to 4030). Nonetheless, no buy signal will be given unless the 4455 level is broken. There is minor additional resistance at 4480 and then pivotal at the all-time high at 4536. In the NASDAQ and on a daily closing basis, there minor but evident resistance at 14900, and decent between 15012 and 15181. No buy signal will be given unless 15316 is broken. Pivotal resistance is found at 15675.
I looking at all the resistance levels above, the job of the bulls is difficult and requires some very positive news to overcome.
As far as the downside is concerned, it is quite simple as the most recent low daily closes are short-term pivotal supports. In the DOW that support is at 33843, in the SPX, it is at 4300, and in the NASDAQ it is at 14472. A break of these supports would suggest that the highs are set for the rest of the year and that some further downside will be seen over the next 4-8 weeks.
Those are the parameters to watch for the next 3 weeks. For this week though, and after the CPI report and first earnings report on Wednesday, the first of the resistance levels mentioned above will be in play. If broken, the bulls will have the edge for the following 2 weeks. If not broken, the bears will have the edge. Probabilities are about even but because of the earnings quarter starting, a very slight edge is given to the bulls.
SILVER generated a green week but no statement was made as it closed at 22.66 on Friday. The pivotal weekly close support level that was broken 4 weeks ago is at 22.71, meaning that the only thing that happened this week is that the traders have placed Silver in a position where next Friday's close (red or green) will either become a successful retest of the break down in Silver prices or a negation of the break. All of this likely depending on the CPI report on Wednesday. For Monday and Tuesday, intraweek support is found at 22.02 and intraweek resistance is found at 23.22. Whichever gets broken first, will give one side or the other the edge.
OIL generated a new 6-year intraweek and weekly closing high and closed near the high of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 80.11 will be seen this week. Nonetheless, this is an area where long term pivotal weekly close resistance exists (between 79.73 and 79.85) that will require bull fundamentals to break above. Oil closed at 79.35 on Friday, which does mean that it could generate another green close next Friday and still not break resistance (as long as it is below 79.85 or within $.30 in either direction). This area will determine the longer term outlook for Oil given that if it is broken, it will become support and open the door not only for a rally to the next decent weekly close resistance at 86.25 but also open the door for a run to $100 next year. By the same token, a failure here will open the door for a drop back to the $50 over the next year as well. Pivotal intraweek support is now found at last week's low at 74.96. A break of that level will give the edge back to the bears. An intraweek rally up to the $82 level could be seen this week but the weekly close next Friday is what is important. Probabilities favor the bears at this level. Not necessarily for this week, but overall. The bulls need strong positive fundamentals to break this area of resistance.
DOLLAR generated an uneventful inside week and a close in the middle of the week's trading range, meaning equal chances of going above last week's high at 94.45 or below last week's low at 93.68. Traders are waiting for news and it is likely that the CPI number will be catalytic for the Dollar. Pivotal and long term intraweek resistance is found at 94.74 and pivotal short-term daily close support is found at 93.50. The bulls presently have the edge but this level is pivotal and will require tangible bullish fundamentals to break.
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Stock Analysis/Evaluation
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CHART Outlooks
The market in general continues to show a lack of general direction. The charts are also not giving much, as far as plays that offer good risk/reward ratios and decent probability numbers. As such, I do not have any new mentions this week. Nonetheless, the mention given last week (CHUY) is still valid and purchasable at an even better price that it was purchased last week. In addition, ZLAB is in an area that favors a purchase as the risk/reward ratio is excellent for the bulls. Nonetheless, finding the best desired entry point is not clear at this time. ENG also is likely to find itself at a very good entry point this week where additions and/or new purchases can be considered. See below for details.
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Updates
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| Updates on Held Stocks |
Closed Trades, Open Positions and Stop Loss Changes |
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AU generated a close above the 200-week MA (currently at 17.48) for the first time in 2 months, suggesting that the correction is likely over. The stock closed near the high of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 18.28 will be seen this week. On a daily closing basis, there is resistance at 18.33, which was the level that when broken, caused the stock to drop down to the $14 level. A confirmed close above that level will generate a failure signal against the bears. Pivotal daily close resistance is found at 20.31 that is further strengthened with the 200-day MA, currently at 20.51. A confirmed close above that line would mean the midterm downtrend is over. Daily close support is now found at 17.08. Based on the levels involved and the straight up move seen the last 8 trading range, probabilities favor two-way trading this week between 17.08 and 18.33 (based on daily closes). There is a runaway gap up at 19.17 that could be targeted for closure this week but the probabilities do not favor that happening unless the inflation report is higher than expected. Probabilities very slightly favor the bulls. BTZI had an uneventful inside week but did generate a green weekly close (2nd in a row) and that has not happened for the past 9 weeks, suggesting that the bears have lost some of their "mojo". The stock did close near the high of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at .054 will be seen this week. Daily and weekly close resistance is found at .0545 and intraweek at .06 and all of those could be in play this week. Short term pivotal intraweek support is found at .0413. Probabilities slightly favor the bulls this week. CHUY generated a down week but nothing was broken. The stock did close near the low of the week and further downside below last week's low at 30.63 is expected to be seen. Nonetheless, the mention given the previous week did say that a drop as low as 30.32 could be seen, meaning that further downside this week would not necessarily be a negative. As it is, the double low at 28.91/28.67 was expected to be tested before new buying would be seen. As such and if the stock does get down to 30.32, consideration should be given to adding positions to last week's purchase. Short term pivotal intraweek resistance is now found at 32.36. If that level is broken, it is likely the retest of the lows is successful and new buying interest will arise. Probabilities favor a green weekly close next Friday. CNX generated a confirmed daily close breakout above the 200-day MA, currently at 13.09, and closed near the high of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 13.68 will be seen this week. The stock has now appreciated 24% from the lows seen 9 weeks ago and that is a solid sign that the correction is over. There is open air above until the 14.09/14.19 level, which is a level that should be seen this week. Nonetheless, a retest of the 200-day MA is also likely to occur sometime over the next week or so. In fact, a retest of the breakout above the 200-week MA, currently at 11.54 might occur before any strides are made above the 14.19 level are seen. As such and as a trader, consideration to taking profits above $14 and buying back around the 12.00 should be given. The probabilities favor this trading range will be seen for the rest of the year. A move above 15.15 or below 10.86 would change the outlook. Probabilities favor the bulls this week. CRON made another new 10-month intraweek and weekly closing low and closed in the lower half of the week's trading range, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 5.41 will be seen this week. Nonetheless, the trading range seen this past week ($.29 cents) is the smallest trading range seen over the past 54 weeks, suggesting the bears are running out of ammunition. In addition, the stock is now in an area (the $5 level) that has been important support on 5 different occasions over the past 3 years, meaning that much further downside is unlikely to happen. This is especially true given that the outlook for the industry is supposed to get much better starting in 2022 and traders usually anticipate action around 9 months before it begins. In looking at the monthly closing chart and going back to 2018, there is monthly close support at 6.05, at 5.67 and pivotal at 5.01. Last month's close was at 5.66, suggesting that a green monthly close is more likely (than not) to be seen this month. On a weekly closing basis, there is support at 5.42 and again at 5.29 and resistance at 5.83. Probabilities favor the stock idling this week. ENG generated a negative reversal week of some consequence given that it was the biggest trading range week since March and the biggest loss in price (from one week to the other) since April. The stock closed near the low of the week and further downside below last week's low at 2.40 is expected to be seen this week. On the other side of the coin, the drop from the high of the week (3.67) was not a surprise given that there is plenty of established daily close resistance between 3.54 and 3.60 and the 200-day MA is currently 3.69. As such, the moment that the stock hit that level, selling interest was seen and the bulls were not able to counteract it given that there really has not been any positive (or negative) news come out for many weeks. In other words, the traders are trading the stock mostly off of charts at this time. Daily close support is found at 2.20 that should hold up given there is no negative news. In fact, there is some previously established (but somewhat minor) intraweek support at 2.28 that has a good chance of being seen but not breaking as there is no reason to believe that the bears have any kind of an edge right now. Short-term pivotal intraweek resistance is found at 2.84 that if broken, would suggest the bulls got their edge back. The stock reports earnings in 4 weeks and the probabilities favor the stock trading between 2.20 and 3.40 during this period of time. MRGE generated another green weekly close and a close in the upper half of the week's trading range, suggesting further upside above last week's high at .139 will be seen this week. The stock has now quadrupled in price over the past 2 weeks, suggesting the correction is over. By the same token, the stock got up to the 200-week MA, currently at .126 and the bulls were unable to close above the line, meaning that it is still not clear whether much more recovery is to be seen. Weekly close resistance is found at .128 that does need to be broken before the bulls step in, in a bigger way. Weekly close support is now found at .095 and as long as that is not broken, the bulls will remain with the edge. Clearly stated and on a weekly closing basis, the .095 and .128 levels are the ones to watch from here on in for short term direction. NEM generated a positive reversal week, having made a new 15-month low and then going above the previous week's high and closing green and in the upper half of the week's trading range, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 55.75 will be seen this week. Nonetheless, the bulls cannot say that any victory was accomplished as they failed to generate a failure signal against the bears given that the previous low weekly close at 54.38, which caused the recent lows to occurred, did not get negated as the stock closed on Friday at 54.31. This does suggest that this coming week is pivotal with a red or green weekly close giving direction for the next few weeks or months. On a daily closing basis, short term pivotal resistance is found at 54.65. A close above that level would suggest the bulls have gotten the edge. On the other side of the coin, any close below 53.56 would offer the same to the bears. Probabilities slightly favor the bulls. RIO generated a green weekly close, which makes the previous week's close at 66.81 into a successful retest of the breakout weekly close level at 64.42 and from which the rally to $95 came about. The stock closed near the high of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 69.23 will be seen this week. On the weekly chart, there is mostly open air above until the 75.87 level is reached. Nonetheless, on the daily closing chart, there is some minor resistance found at 72.42. Any daily close above 76.07 will open the door for the $80/$81 level where there is longer term pivotal resistance. On a daily closing basis, support should now be found at 67.54. Probabilities clearly favor the bulls this week for a rally up to the $72 level. SNDL generated a positive reversal week, having made a new 9-month intraweek low but then closing green and in the upper half of the week's trading range, suggesting further upside above last week's high at .7445 will be seen this week. The reason for the unexpected positive reversal was the announcement of the company merging/purchasing liquor retailer Alcanna. Given that this is a fundamental piece of news, this coming week is pivotal. Support should now be found at .65 and pivotal resistance is found at .808, which if broken would mean that the bottom of the correction has been found. Probabilities favor the bulls. SRUTF continued to trade in a clearly defined trading range between .035 and .04 cents, an area the stock has been in for the past 3 weeks. The breakdown level continues to be the .03 cent level and the breakout level continues to be the .05 level. There is no clue at this time which of these two levels will be broken but given that CRON is near a very decent to strong support level, the probabilities favor either more of the same or a very slight probability in favor of the bulls. ZLAB made a new 11-month intraweek and weekly closing low and closed near the low of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 100.48 will be seen this week. Nonetheless, the selling interest has begun to wane as the stock traded in the narrowest trading range seen in over 10 months. Additionally, the stock generated the 5th red weekly close in a row and its existence (since 2017) that has never happened before. The red weekly close was only by $.37 cents and that suggests that "some buying interest is beginning to be found as the $100 psychological support level is reached. The stock did generate some 2-way trading last week and has built short-term pivotal intraweek resistance at 107.98, meaning that if that level is broken, it is likely the bottom has been found and a recovery rally is to occur. It is important to note that there has been no negative news on the company, in fact what news has come out regarding the Bio-pharma products they are working on, has been positive. I would venture to say that the week favors the bulls for a green weekly close next Friday.
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1) SNDL - Averaged long at .905 (2 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at .68. 2) PGEN - Liquidated at 4.70. Averaged long at 7.506. Loss on the trade of $842 per 100 shares (3 mentions). 3) SRUTF - Averaged long at .0738 (3 mentions). No stop loss at moment. Stock closed on Friday at .038. 4) BTZI - Averaged long at .0935 (4 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at .051. 5) ZLAB - Averaged long at 134.64 (3 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 102.35. 6) AU - Averaged long at 26.106 (6 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 17.77. 7) NEM - Averaged long at 60.137 (4 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 54.31. 8) CNX - Averaged long at 10.876 (3 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 13.54. 9) RIO - Purchased at 66.97. Stop loss at 64.14. Stock closed on Friday at 68.47. 10 ENG - Averaged long at 4.0325 (4 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 2.48. 11) CRON - Averaged long at 9.146 (3 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 5.48. 12) MRGE - Purchased at .28. No stop loss at present. Stock closed at .105 on Friday. 13) ENB - Covered shots at 41.34. Shorted at 40.34. Loss on the trade of $100 per 100 shares. 14) CHUY - Purchased at 31.01. Stop loss is at 28.65. Stock closed on Friday at 31.05.
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The opinions and commentaries by Mr. De Vito are not a recommendation to buy or sell, but rather
a charting guideline, based on his own knowledge and experience, regarding the stocks he is following or
that are brought to him by others. Mr. De Vito does not presently offer a track record of his trading experiences.
No inference of success and/or failure should be assumed. The
information enclosed above, regarding his background, length of trading, and experience, is correct
but is not meant to suggest, state, or infer any future success in trading, based on his opinions. The information herewith included should only be used by investors who are aware of the risk inherent in securities trading. Mr. De Vito accepts no liability whatsoever for any loss arising from any use of the information and/or comments he supplies. |
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