Issue #741
Nov 21, 2021 | Newsletter
The newsletter with chart analysis for stocks and stock indexes |
Stock Indexes Analysis/Evaluation
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| Covid-19 Infections Rise in Europe. Traders Return to the "Tried and Proven" Pandemic Trading, which Favor Tech Stocks.
DOW Friday closing price - 35601
This past week was a clear example of the uncertainty in the market regarding what is happening and of the traders moving to the safety of the "effective" trading approach that has been seen since the pandemic started, which is buying Tech and high prices stocks and selling small cap and tangible product stocks.
This past week, it was brought to the attention of the market the return and rapid expansion of Covid-19 cases in Europe. Such an event means that the governments will need to keep interest rates down for longer than was anticipated as well as put in new restrictions on travel, meetings and general "going-out" of the populace. The action once again restricts the purchase power of the populace for buying tangible items and increases the involvement of everything having to do with Tech. As such, the NASDAQ increased in value 2.3% while the DOW fell in value 1.2%. The dichotomy was even greater with the small cap stocks index (RUT) that fell 2.3%. Given that this is a fundamental change, it did generate some signals that are not likely to change in the short-term. The only factor that might be mitigating is the fact that this was mostly in Europe, given that in the U.S. such an upturn has not yet happened (mainly because in Europe there are a lot more unvaccinated people than in the U.S). Nonetheless, the market is anticipating some upturn of infections here as well and until that is proven to "not be the case", they traders took the "safe way" again, which is buying Tech and selling small cap.
This fundamental news changes the short-term picture in many ways. With the end of the year just 7 weeks away, the idea that the beginning of the end of the "Tech" bull market was being seen and that the beginning of money shifting to small cap stocks was starting to occur, has been moved forward to possibly next year.
From a chart perspective, the NASDAQ made a new all-time intraweek and weekly closing high, meaning a new leg up to its bull trend. The SPX (which is normally the mediator index for the overall market) came within 1 point of making a new all-time intraweek high and closed "at" the previous all-time weekly closing high, meaning no clear decision was made. Lastly, the DOW closed just 86 points above the previous all-time weekly closing high at 35515 (almost giving a failure signal) but did generate a failure signal on the previous all-time daily closing high at 36625 (closed at 36601). The RUT generated a failure signal on all charts, as the index closed on Friday at 2443 and below the all-time high daily close at 2360 and below the all-time high weekly close at 2353. These are conflicting signals regarding the overall bull trend and they are not going to get cleared up until this coming week and perhaps not clearly shown until next Friday's close.
Evidently, for a true bull market to be in place (not just a dichotomy market), all indexes have to be in some sort of agreement. This means that all indexes have to generate a green weekly close next Friday and in the RUT, it has to be above 2360.
This coming week is a short week with Thanksgiving on Thursday and only a half day of trading on Friday. In addition, there are no economic reports scheduled that can be considered catalytic. As such, this week will be all about the Corona Virus news and on what the European countries are saying about it. This does mean that nothing can be anticipated at this time, other than perhaps saying that the onus of proof in on the shoulders of the bears.
The DOW and the RUT will be important the first 3 days of the week as they have daily closes that are pivotal. Evidently if the failure signals on the daily closing charts are confirmed (especially if doubly confirmed), the traders will lean toward selling (even the NASDAQ. On Friday, the SPX will be the index to watch given that it closed on Friday at the previous weekly closing high and a red close will make it a double top, while a green close will make it a new leg up in the uptrend. The NAZ will not be a pivotal index this week, neither will the dichotomy between it and the DOW. The dichotomy is likely to continue for now, unless there are reports of the virus outbreak being controlled. The key issue this week is whether the overall bull market is to continue or whether the problems being seen will put a stop to it.
I have no probability assessment to make this week, given that it is all fundamental news driving the market right now. The traders are not being proactive, they are being reactive and that is impossible to assess in advance.
OIL had a strong down week, having dropped 6.3% in value and closing near the low of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 75.11 will be seen this week. This fall was partially because Biden has been asking of OPEC to bring gasoline prices down to prevent a continuing rise in inflation. The bulls were successful in keeping Oil above a recent but important pivotal weekly close support at 75.16, suggesting that if a green close occurs next Friday, that the support level has been tested successful. Nonetheless and on a negative note, the weekly close below 79.20 does take away all the short-term strength that had been built for an attempt to reach the $100 level, meaning that for the rest of the year (and probably for at least 4 months thereafter), Oil will not be making a new rally high. On the other side of the coin, another red close next Friday, especially if below 74.34, would be a game changer that would open the door for a drop down to at least $70 and perhaps as far as $64. This means that this week is somewhat pivotal. Short-term pivotal resistance is now at 80.11, which if broken would likely take Oil up to 82.18, where the resistance is a bit stronger. On the intraweek chart, there is some minor to perhaps decent support at 74.96 and again at 73.16. Below that, there is nothing until 69.67. Like with Gold, Oil should be supported by the high inflation and now lessening chance of a rate hike sooner rather than later. As such, I do believe that after an initial drop at the beginning of the week (likely down to 75.00), oil will rally back up to the 78.50 level. It is not likely to be much of a week.
DOLLAR confirmed the previous week's breakout with another spike high rally and green close and on the high of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 96.24 will be seen this week. Nonetheless, the Dollar has now gotten into the next area of weekly close resistance between 95.95 and 96.36 (closed at 96.01 on Friday), suggesting that further upside (at least on a weekly closing basis) is going to require more fundamental news, which at this time is not available. On an intraweek basis, the resistance is found at 96.97 and support is now at 94.95. Probabilities are high that this will be the trading range for at least the next 3 weeks. As such, the probabilities favor a close next Friday around this same price seen this past Friday, give or take 30 or 40 points on either side.
BITCOIN generated a sell signal on the daily closing chart, having closed on Friday at 57053, which was below the previous low daily close at 58453. Nonetheless, and with the fact that this product also trades on Saturday and closed at 59739, it means that the sell signal was not be confirmed. Nonetheless, a failure signal was given on the weekly chart as the previous all-time high weekly close is 61207. What all of this means is that the uptrend has been truncated for now and requires some new news to restart. With Bitcoing not confirming the sell signal, Friday's low at 55670 will become a new and short-term pivotal support. If no further downside is seen this week, the chart will remain overall bullish as a bull flag formation will be in the process of being built. If and when the formation is formed (likely another 3-5 weeks), and then broken to the upside, it would offer a 70330 objective. As such and if this chart evaluation is correct, Bitcoin should trade between 56000 and 64000/67000 for the next 3-6 weeks.
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Stock Analysis/Evaluation
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CHART Outlooks
The news that came out last week regarding the increasing Covid cases in Europe has thrown the traders back into uncertainty, meaning that until more news comes out, they are not likely to do much of anything. This is especially true given that this coming week is a short week due to the Thanksgiving holiday. As such, I have no new mentions this week.
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Updates
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| Updates on Held Stocks |
Closed Trades, Open Positions and Stop Loss Changes |
| AU generated an uneventful inside week with a close very slightly in the lower half of the week's trading range, suggesting a slightly higher chance of going below last week's low at 20.56 than above last week's high at 31.21. There is a 50-50 chance that the 200-day MA, currently at 19.91, will be tested this week if Gold shows any weakness. Nonetheless, overall and with it now trading above the MA line for the past 8 days, the bulls presently have the edge. Last week's high at 21.31 has become a minor but short-term pivotal resistance, which if broken would open the door for a rally up to at least the 23.00 level. Any daily close below 20.56 would weaken the chart. Probabilities favor the bulls overall. BOIL had an inside week but did generate a green weekly close, making the previous low weekly close at 49.44 into a successful retest of the previous 18-month high weekly close breakout at 49.29. The stock closed in the lower half of the weeks' trading range, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 48.88 could be seen this week. Nonetheless, the stock closed in the upper half of Friday's trading range, suggesting the first course of action for the week is likely to be to the upside. There is some resistance at 57.35 and then no resistance until last week's high at 61.18 is reached. This is a weather-for-the-winter scenario with colder weather anticipated to happen, which in turn would support Natural Gas and therefore support the stock. Natural Gas has resistance at 5.47 and it closed on Friday at 4.93, suggesting the stock should go higher. If the stock gets above 61.18, it should continue higher to at least $70. Nonetheless, some consideration can be given to taking a fast profit around the 57.35. To the downside, stop loss remains the same at 46.65. Probabilities favor the bulls. BTZI made a new all-time weekly closing low and closed in the lower half of the week's trading range, suggesting further downside below last week's low at .0001 will be seen this week. Given that was likely a low generated by stop loss and panic selling, it is unlikely that it will get broken. In addition, there was no news to support the break other than some weakness seen in Bitcoin, meaning that the action this week could be reversed this coming week just as easily as it occurred this past week. Though Bitcoin gave a sell signal on Friday, that sell signal was not confirmed on the weekly closing chart and negated on Saturday on the daily closing chart. The stock closed on Friday at .021 and any confirmed close this week above .0225 will negate the sell signal and give a failure signal against the bears. A second failure signal against the bears will occur if the stock closes above .0375 and a 3rd (and more important) failure signal will be given with a close above .048. I have to believe last week's action was an anomaly given the breaks of all those supports generating stop loss selling. CALM unexpectedly went above last week's high and generated a green weekly close, meaning that the previous week's down move was not indicative anything. Nonetheless, the bulls did not accomplish anything either given that the weekly close resistance at 37.13 remains unbroken (closed on Friday at 36.80). The stock closed slightly in the lower half of the week's trading range, suggests a slightly higher chance of going below last week's low at 36.33 than above last week's high at 37.51. There is short-term pivotal resistance at 37.57 and same as far as support at 35.87. The 200-day MA is currently at 37.12 and if the bulls are able to get (and stay) above that line, the bulls will gain the edge. CHUY generated a 2nd red weekly close and closed in the lower half of the week's trading range, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 31.21 will be seen this week. The stock now shows a lower low than the previous week, meaning that any low made right now and above the recent 10-month low at 28.50 will now be seen as the required/needed retest of the low, which should generate new buying interest. There is no established intraweek support below until 30.76/30.81 is reached and that support is minor. Stronger support is found around the 30.00 level. A break below 28.50 would be a big negative, while a rally above the recent high at 34.87, a big short-term positive. I doubt anything of consequence will occur this week. ENG generated a new 2-month intraweek and weekly closing low and closed on the low of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 2.07 will be seen this week. Decent intraweek support is found at 2.01 that now seems likely to be seen. The chart suggests that a bullish inverted Head & Shoulders formation may be forming with the left shoulder at 2.01, the head at 1.74 and the right shoulder, whatever low is seen on this down move as long as it isn't under 1.74. A break of the neckline (currently at 3.65), would offer a 5.54 objective. A rally above 2.76 would mean the formation has been formed. Nonetheless, there is some minor but likely indicative resistance at 2.38, which if broken would suggest this correction is over. IDCC generated a negative reversal week, having made a new 14-week high but then turning down to close red and in the lower half of the week's trading range, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 71.21 will be seen this week. The reversal was not a surprise given that pivotal intraweek resistance is found at 75.25 and last week's high was 74.27. It means that there are not yet enough reasons to breakout of the present sideways trading range. There is important intraweek support between 69.67 and 70.12, which includes the 200-day MA, currently at 69.98. As such, that level is the downside target for this week. There are no reasons at this time to believe the stock will break (and stay below) the 200-day MA, suggesting the stock is likely to be trading between $70 and $73 for the next week or two. MRGE had a very wild week, having made a new 40-month intraweek low at .01 and then turning around to close above the previous week's high at .08 (closed at .09), meaning that the stock dropped 800% in value and then gained 900% back. There was no news to support the action. Short-term pivotal weekly close resistance is found at .105. Pivotal daily close support is now found at .06. NEM generated a negative reversal week, having made a new 12-week high but then closing red and on the low of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 56.35 is expected to be seen. None of the action was unexpected as there is pivotal intraweek resistance at 60.13 and last week's high was 59.47, meaning that the situation is not yet supported for a breakout. The stock does show 1 successful retest of the low at 53.03 that was seen in October and it is likely this move down will be the 2nd retest, meaning the support level is being built. Intraweek support is found at 56.15 and that is likely to be the downside target for this week with some positive reversal coming at the end of the week. Nothing of great consequence is likely to happen this week. RIO generated a new 51-week intraweek low that looked ominous but then the bulls were able to recover at the end of the week to stay above the previous low weekly close at 60.62 (closed on Friday at 60.71) and still remain without breaking the 200-week MA (currently at 60.73). The action seen was much like the action seen everywhere this past week and likely not indicative of anything. The bulls managed to close the stock slightly in the upper half of the week's trading range, suggesting a slightly higher probability of going above last week's high at 61.74 than below last week's low at 59.58. A new low below last week's low would weaken the chart substantially, while a rally above 63.14 do the opposite. QTWO was one of the bright spots in the portfolio this week. The stock made a new 10-week intraweek and weekly closing high and closed near the high of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 90.85 will be seen this week. The stock shows decent intraweek resistance between 92.34 and 93.90. which if broken would give the bulls short-term control. Pivotal intraweek support is now found at 85.94, which if broken would weaken the chart. At this time, the chart is looking short-term bullish with the 200-day MA, currently at 97.64, as a very viable objective. SNDL generated an inside week but gave up almost 65% of the gains gained the previous week, meaning that the previous week's action has been mostly been negated. The stock closed on the lows of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at .072 will be seen this week. By the same token and on a chart basis, the action seen was not much of a surprise given that the previous week's high was exactly up to the 200-day MA (currently at .093). In addition and in reaching that line, the stock had gapped up from .072 and since there was no new company news, the gap was a magnet for closure. The gap is now closed and there is decent and copious daily close support between .70 and .72, suggesting that the probabilities favor a green week this week. SRUTF slipped a bit given that the stock has been trading sideways for several weeks between .035 and .04 and that trading range became .03 to .035 this past week. With the Cannabis industry under some sell pressure at present, the probabilities favor this new trading range being seen from now on until some news comes out. ZLAB continued the downtrend, having generated a negative reversal week (going above the previous week's high and then closing below the previous week's low) and making new multi-month lows across the board. The stock closed near the low of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 82.64 will be seen this week. Intraweek support is found at 80.40 and stronger around the $72 level. Intraweek resistance is now found at 91.84 and then slightly stronger and short-term pivotal at 95.52. There is no news scheduled to come out and the chart suggests that the stock will trade between $80 and $90 for the next few weeks.
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1) SNDL - Averaged long at .905 (2 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at .731. 2) CHUY - Averaged long at 30.75. Stop loss now at 28.40. Stock closed on Friday at 31.93 3) SRUTF - Averaged long at .0738 (3 mentions). No stop loss at moment. Stock closed on Friday at .0328. 4) BTZI - Averaged long at .0935 (4 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at .021. 5) ZLAB - Averaged long at 125.7825 (4 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 84.15. 6) AU - Averaged long at 26.106 (6 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 20.75. 7) NEM - Averaged long at 60.137 (4 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 56.55. 8) QTWO - Purchased at 77.21. Stop loss now at 81.65 (on a stop close only). Stock closed on Friday at 85.32. 9) RIO - Averaged long at 64.085 (2 mentions). Stock closed on Friday at 60.71. 10 ENG - Averaged long at 4.0325 (4 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 2.08. 11) CRON - Liquidated at 4.90. Averaged long at 9.146. Loss on the trade of $1274 per 100 shares (3 mentions). 12) MRGE - Purchased at .28. No stop loss at present. Stock closed at .09 on Friday. 13) CALM - Purchased at 34.99. Stop loss at 33.65. Stock closed on Friday at 36.80. 14) CHUY - Averaged long at 30.75 (2 mentions). Stop loss at 28.38. Stock closed on Friday at 31.93. 15) IDCC - Purchased at 71.76. Stop loss at 69.65. Stock closed on Friday at 71.84. 16) BOIL - Purchased at 51.42 and at 50.00. Averaged long at 50.71. Stop loss is at 47.65. Stock closed on Friday at 53.16.
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The opinions and commentaries by Mr. De Vito are not a recommendation to buy or sell, but rather
a charting guideline, based on his own knowledge and experience, regarding the stocks he is following or
that are brought to him by others. Mr. De Vito does not presently offer a track record of his trading experiences.
No inference of success and/or failure should be assumed. The
information enclosed above, regarding his background, length of trading, and experience, is correct
but is not meant to suggest, state, or infer any future success in trading, based on his opinions. The information herewith included should only be used by investors who are aware of the risk inherent in securities trading. Mr. De Vito accepts no liability whatsoever for any loss arising from any use of the information and/or comments he supplies. |
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