Issue #742
Nov 28, 2021 | Newsletter
The newsletter with chart analysis for stocks and stock indexes |
Stock Indexes Analysis/Evaluation
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| New Strain of Covid Discovered in South Africa, Creates Some Panic Selling.
DOW Friday closing price - 34899
RUT Friday closing price - 2245
The indexes took a big fall this past week with the DOW dropping 2%, the SPX dropping 2.2%, the NASDAQ dropping 3.4% and the RUT dropping 4.2%. The reason for the fall was the announcement of a new strain of the virus that was discovered and that is stronger, spreads faster, and is more resilient to the vaccines. Such an event suggest that less business will be conducted, interest rates will not be raised sooner than stated, more unemployment and less ability to hire will be seen and that inflation will not be addressed at this time. The extent of the drop might also have been exacerbated by the fact that it was a holiday week and that Friday was a half day with lower trader participation than normal.
Several negative signals were generated with the drop. The DOW and the RUT both gave failure signals against the bulls, having closed on Friday below the previous all-time high weekly closes, and the SPX and the NASDAQ both generating a key negative reversal week, having made new all-time intraweek highs and then closing below the previous week's intraweek lows. These signals are all considered strong negative signs of at least a temporary top to the rally having been formed. By the same token, the lack of confirmation about the severity of the new strains of the virus and the fact that Friday was a prime day for manipulation or panic to occur, these signals are not yet dependable. By nature, any signal always requires confirmation and in this case even more so.
The end of the month occurs on Tuesday and though monthly charts are normally not as dependable as the weekly charts, in this case they are likely to be indicative given that by Tuesday there will be more information about the new strains of the virus. In addition and with the big drop in prices seen on Friday, the traders will be looking for confirmation (or lack thereof) as soon as possible (not wait until Friday's close). In the DOW the levels to watch are 35819, 35360 and 33843. The former is the all-time high monthly close. A close above that level would be a strong positive as a new all-time monthly closing high will be accomplished and that would mean this new strain of virus is not important and that the overall market is bullish. A close below the second level at 35360, would generate a failure-signal on the monthly charts and when added to the signal already given on the weekly chart, would be confirmation of the failure to continue higher. A close below the latter (at 33843) would generate a new sell signal and given that has not happened for the past 20 months, it would confirm that the bears are now in short-term control if it happens. The index closed on Friday at 34899, suggesting the only level of the 3 mentioned that is "in play" is the previous all-time monthly closing high at 35360. That close (on Tuesday) will determine what is likely to happen for the rest of the year (next 5 weeks) in the index.
In the SPX, the levels in play are 4605, 4522 and 4307. These levels mean the same as in the DOW but in the case of this index, it closed on Friday at 4594, meaning that the bulls only have to rally 11 points by Tuesday's close to keep the index clearly defined as "still in a bull trend". In the NASDAQ, the levels are 15850, 15552, and 14689. With the index closing on Friday at 16025 (175 points above last months' close), it is clearly evident that this index will clearly decide what the traders think will happen the rest of the year. In this case, the onus is still on the shoulders of the bears.
By the way, on Tuesday the Consumer Confidence report comes out. It is expected to come out at 111. Last month it came out at 113.8 and the lowest number seen in the last 8 months was the previous months' at 109.8. A number below 109.8 would be seen as a negative. It is not likely that will happen as the number being reported is based on a survey done before this new virus strain was announced and therefore not likely to reflect any negative thoughts. By the same token, if it does come out lower than 109.8, it would be an extra negative because next month's number would likely be even lower due to the new strain.
On the other side of the coin, this is a week where the traders are facing the release of the 2 most important economic reports for the month (ISM Index on Wednesday and the Jobs report on Friday). What this means is that the traders will be facing what could be a "double whammy", which could be in either direction. A close on Tuesday below (or above) the levels of importance mentioned above and then negative (or positive) economic reports thereafter. As such, what happens on Tuesday's close could be important but confirmation on Friday's close will be required.
The only other thing that will be "on tap" this week is further information on the new strains of the virus. As I sit here and write this, I just heard on the TV that there are now 2 confirmed cases of the new strain (called Omnicron) having been found in England. This news is not good as it means that the traders will now need information about how deadly (or how infectious) the new strain is, in order to be able to evaluate it. That kind of information is not likely to be available this week. As such, traders are likely to "play it safe" and that means the probabilities favor the bears this week.
In looking at the intraweek chart, there are 3 things that stand out. In the DOW, the 200-day MA is currently at 34315. That line has not been broken for the past 16 months. The index closed just 584 points above that line on Friday. In the NASDAQ and on an intraweek basis, there is short-term pivotal support at 15905 and the index closed just 120 points above that level on Friday. A break of that level would cause the index to drop down to test the previous all-time daily closing high at 15675 (350 points below Friday's close). A break of both of these levels, would be a strong negative sign. In the RUT, the index has a lot of support on the daily closing chart at 2130 (been the low daily close for the past 9 months and repeatedly tested successfully). A close below that level (just 115 points below Friday's close), would be a strong negative sign. If any of these 3 things occur, it would give the bears a clear edge. If all 3 occur, it would be a dependable sign of weakness.
That is it in a "nutshell". I have no opinion at this time other than to say that the bulls were in full control the previous week and now that is in question. More fundamental information needs to come out before anyone can come up with a valid interpretation of what is to come.
OIL's action this past week was a bad omen for the Oil bulls as it closed below the important weekly close breakout level at 74.34 (in a convincing way), suggesting that the bull rally is over. If confirmed next week, it opens the door wide for a drop down to the 63.91 level and perhaps even down to the $60 level. Waiting for next Friday close may not be necessary given that Tuesday is the monthly close and if Oil closes on Tuesday below 68.50 (closed today at 68.17), it will generate not only a failure signal but a sell signal as well, which offers at the very minimum a drop down to 63.91. In addition, by Tuesday more will be known about the virus that opened the door today for this big drop, meaning that this monthly close is going to be indicative (normally, monthly closes are not so much indicative). If by any chance Oil closes below 63.19 on Tuesday, the next levels to watch are 57.32, 49.76, 45.41 and 41.88. All on a monthly closing basis. It is way too early to give any dependable downside projections at this time as the only thing that has actually happened is this first weekly close below 74.34 that generated a failure signal of consequence. Even then, this signal is not yet confirmed and nothing else has yet been broken.Two important things to watch for this week: 1) a weekly close below 66.64 would mean oil has dropped 20% from the highs and that kind of a drop is usually associated with the end of a bull trend. Such an event would meant that 83.40 (on a weekly closing basis) would become a brick wall and, 2) a weekly close below 62.32 would generate a big sell signal that would generate much further downside and would turn the chart negative for quite some time. To the upside, the 76.98 level is now resistance. If broken, the bear short-term control will disappear.
DOLLAR generated another green weekly close, meaning the uptrend remains. Nonetheless, it did get up to the intraweek resistance at 96.98 with a high this week at 96.94 and then fell back to close just $.06 cents above last week's close. It did close in the lower half of the week's trading range, suggesting further downside below this past week's low at 95.75 will be seen this week. The weekly close resistance at 96.36 was not broken (closed at 96.09) and this all means that the bulls were unable to make a statement this week. All of this also has to do with the fact that if the new strain of the virus does cause a spike in infections it will cause the Fed to delay an increase of interest rates, which in turn would mean the Dollar will not get any stronger than what it is now. In fact, it could head lower for the short term. I did state last week that the probabilities favor the Dollar trading between 94.64 and 96.36 (based on weekly closes) for the next few months and that evaluation remains viable. On a daily closing basis, the levels to watch are 95.54 and 96.88. Any close above or below those levels will give one side or the other a decided short-term edge. Probabilities seem to favor the bears for this week.
BITCOIN generated another red weekly close and further downside, meaning the failure signal against the bulls given the previous week has been confirmed. Bitcoin closed near the low of the week and further downside below last week's low at 53565 is expected to be seen this week. Intraweek support is found at 50874 and at 48409. Intraweek resistance is now found at 59372, at 61468, and decent at 64374. Key level to watch this week and on a daily closing basis, is 52676. A close below that level will further strengthen the bear hand. On the other hand, any daily close above 57468 would take away ammunition from the bears. The chart remains overall leaning to the bulls.
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Stock Analysis/Evaluation
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CHART Outlooks
As I stated in an email sent this week, I was considering changing my approach to trading due to the unique action that has been seen in the market this year. What I came up with is simple. I am going to do more day and very short term trades. I have done very little of that recently. In fact, I have been doing more buy and hold than anything and it has not been working, at least not under the present circumstances. I have noticed that on some of the recent mentions given, that the stocks mentioned have moved up soon after purchase but then have given up much (if not all) of the profits a few days later. QTWO is a perfect example of this. The stock was purchased at 77.21 and within a few days it was up to 89.54 and now is at 80.66. This past week, I did purchase BOIL at an average price of 50.70 and a few days later I got out at $57. The objective of the trade was much higher but with the market being the way it has been, taking profits was the "thing to do". In simple words, waiting for the chart objectives to be reached is not working. In with a small risk and out soon thereafter with any decent profit, seems to be a winning strategy right now. That is what I will be doing the rest of the year until such a time the market returns to normal trading.
Due to this strategy, it means that there will be more emphasis on the message board mentions than on the newsletter mentions. I will continue to look at giving mentions in the newsletter but often the short-term trades appear during the week while trading is occurring. If I see something with enough advance notice, I will send an email with the specific mention.
As far as this week, I have no mentions at this time. The traders are in the dark as to what is to happen this week due to the announcement of the new virus strain and no one at this time has a plan. We are all waiting to see what happens during the week and specifically what information comes out about the virus.
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Updates
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| Updates on Held Stocks |
Closed Trades, Open Positions and Stop Loss Changes |
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AU generated another red week but nothing of consequence occurred. Nonetheless, the stock closed on Friday at 19.85, which is where the 200-day MA is currently at, and that means that Monday's close (red or green) is likely to be eventful. The break above the line occurred 12 days ago and given that the stock had traded below the line for the previous 5 months, a retest of the line was highly likely to occur. A green daily close on Monday will be a successful retest of the line and if that occurs, new buying interest is likely to be seen. The chart is presently showing a breakaway/runaway gap formation with the runaway gap being at 19.13. Closure of that gap would be a negative, meaning that consideration can be given to liquidating the positions if that occurs. Intraweek resistance is now found 21.29 and pivotal at 21.80. Chart still suggest that the 23.75 level is the objective of this recent breakout. Probabilities favor the bulls. BTZI continued to slide down without any sign of buying interest of importance. The stock is trading at a new all-time weekly closing low and with a close near the low of the week, further downside is likely to be seen. At this time, the only thing that can help the stock is a rally in Bitcoin. As such, see above to the Bitcoin evaluation for the levels in play there. For me, this trade (and especially at this price) is a hold with a sink or swim mentality. The bulls need to generate a daily close above .0225 in order for any short-covering interest to be seen and a close above .039 for any new buying interest to be seen. CALM made a new 11-week intraweek high but in the end (Friday's close), nothing was accomplished as the stock closed only $.11 cents above the previous week's close and still below the pivotal weekly close resistance at 37.13. Nonetheless, the new 11-week intraweek high does show that the traders are mostly on the buy side and given that the fall back occurred only on Friday when the entire market fell, does suggest that the action seen for the week was a positive and possibly an indicative positive. The stock did close slightly below the 200-day MA, currently at 37.09, meaning that Monday's close is likely to be important. A green close on Monday above 37.09 is likely to re-stimulate the buying interest seen early last week. Pivotal intraweek support is found at 36.34, which if broken would be seen as a negative. The stock is showing a double high on the daily closing chart at 37.85/37.83 and as such, any close above that level would be a breakout of short-term consequence. CHUY generated a 3rd red weekly close and closed in the lower half of the week's trading range, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 29.60 will be seen this week. This move down is not unexpected as the recent 10-month intraweek low at 28.48 (28.89 on a daily closing basis) needs to be retested successfully before new buying interest appears. On a possible negative note, the stock is now showing a double high on the daily closing chart at 34.60/34.71 and that increases the chances of the stock resuming the downtrend that began in April. Due to the levels in play at this time, this week seems to be pivotal for the stock. A daily close above 32.63 will give the bulls the short-term edge and a daily close below 28.89 would do the opposite. ENG made a new 13-week intraweek and weekly closing low and closed very slightly in the lower half of the week's trading range, suggesting a slightly higher probability of going below last week's low at 1.87 than above last week's high at 2.14. The stock finds itself at a very important and pivotal level at $2, which is a level that has been pivotal on several occasions over the past 15 years (stock closed on Friday at 1.98). The chart parameters are very clear right now with pivotal daily close support at 1.78 and pivotal daily close resistance at 2.17. As such, there is a high chance that this coming week could be pivotal. IDCC generated a big spike down week, having dropped 6% in value from the previous week's close. The stock closed on the low of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 67.25 will be seen this week. There was no news to support the fall. From a chart perspective, this move down was not unexpected given that the stock made a new 13-week low 5 weeks ago at 65.79 and that low has not yet been tested successfully, suggesting this move down could end up being the required/needed retest. In addition, the bulls have been able to maintain the stock above the 200-week MA, currently at 66.02, for the last 17 weeks and broken only once (for 1 week) for the last 33 weeks, meaning that the chart still supports the bull side. It is evident by the prices involved that this coming week seems to be pivotal. Any daily close below 65.89 would be a breakdown, which would call for liquidation of the positions. The 200-day MA is currently at 70.04, meaning that two closes in a row above the line would give the bulls the edge back. Due to the clear chart parameters, consideration can be given to adding positions around the 66.80 level and using a stop loss at 65.65. MRGE for the past 6 weeks (and based on daily closes) has traded between .06 and .10. The stock closed on Friday at .07, continuing the sideways trend. The stock did close near the high of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at .082 will be seen this week. Short-term pivotal intraweek resistance is found at .09, which if broken would suggest the base building efforts seen the past few months have been successful. Otherwise, more of the same is expected. NEM generated a 2nd red weekly close but in this case, the stock closed near the high of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 56.51 will occur. If that happens and a green weekly close occurs next Friday, this move down will be seen as the 2nd successful retest of the 19-month intraweek low at 53.03 (53.56 on a weekly closing basis). The chart seems to be in a base building process that if successful, will reignite a recovery rally back up to the $70-$72 level. Last week's low at 54.61 now seems to be pivotal. If broken, the bears will regain short-term control. Pivotal resistance is found at 60.89 (200-day MA). RIO generated a green weekly close, which makes the previous week's weekly close at 60.71 into a double bottom (with the close 5 weeks ago at 60.62), as well as a 2nd successful retest of the 200-week MA, currently at 60.73. Nonetheless, the bulls did not do enough to generate a new buy signal as a weekly close above 62.34 was needed and the stock closed on Friday at 62.33. Last week's high at 64.67 is now pivotal resistance. If broken, there is no resistance above until the $66/$67 level is reached. The 59.58 level is pivotal support, which if broken would weaken the chart substantially. QTWO dropped 9.5% in value this past week (based on the weekly closes). There was no news to support the big fall, meaning it was likely chart oriented. The stock had reached intraweek resistance at 92.34 with a high the previous week at 90.85 and unable to get above and having open air below (as well as a dropping index market), a big drop occurred. Nonetheless and other than dismantling a bullish flag formation, nothing of any consequence was broken. The flag, having been negated, does mean the bulls need new news to go higher but otherwise, the chart maintains its bullish leaning as it remains above the 200-week MA (currently at 79.63). The stock has been above the line since its inception in 2016. The stock did close in the lower half of the week's trading range, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 77.61 will be seen this week. Intraweek support is found at 76.90, at 76.56 and at 76.20. A drop below 74.53 would weaken the chart and a drop below 73.51 would turn the chart bearish. Chart suggest that there is a decent probability of the stock "not" going below last week's low but if it does, it would be by a minimal amount. Any daily close above 84.40 would give the short-term edge back to the bulls. SNDL generated another red weekly close and closed on the low of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at .6405 will be seen this week. The stock has now given back 95% of the gains seen just 3 weeks ago, after having appreciated almost 60% in value in one week. There was no new negative news to support the drop, other than general weakness in the Cannabis industry. Once again, the short-term pivotal support at .61 is in play again. A break of that level is likely to take the stock down to the .50 level. To the upside, minor but short-term pivotal resistance is found at .76 and a bit stronger at .81. The Cannabis industry is supposed to start moving up starting next year and with the new year being only 6 weeks away, it seems unlikely that established supports below will be broken. SRUTF, like with all Cannabis stocks, showed weakness this week. The stock made a new 13-month low and closed on the low of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at .028 will be seen this week. The all-time intraweek low is at .025 (.0287 on a weekly closing basis), a low made in October of last year. With the stock closing on Friday at .028, a green close next week by at least .02 cents will generate a double bottom. A red close next Friday (in conjunction with an intraweek break below .025), would be a strong negative. ZLAB continued the downtrend, having made a new 17-month intraweek low and another red weekly close (the 4th in a row and the 11th out of the last 12 weeks). All intraweek support levels of any consequence have now been broken but the bulls were able to generate enough buying interest at the end of the week to close above the low weekly close for the past 17-months, having closed above 75.17 on Friday (closed at 76.94). It can be said that last week's low at 70.14 might become a successful retest of the 200-week MA, currently at 67.16, if and when the stock gets above last week's high at 84.39 this week. The stock closed very slightly in the lower half of the week's trading range, suggesting a slightly higher chance of going below last week's low than above last week's high. Nonetheless, the stock generated 2 green closes on the daily chart on Wednesday and Friday and closed near the high of the day on Friday, suggesting further upside above Friday's high at 77.67 will be seen on Monday. For this week and on a daily closing basis, a close above 85.17 would tilt the probabilities in favor of the bulls. Nonetheless, a rally above 91.84 is required so that the recent low at 70.14 becomes a bottom to this 11-week drop from 152.82.
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1) SNDL - Averaged long at .905 (2 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at .654. 2) CHUY - Averaged long at 30.75. Stop loss now at 28.40. Stock closed on Friday at 30.70 3) SRUTF - Averaged long at .0738 (3 mentions). No stop loss at moment. Stock closed on Friday at .028. 4) BTZI - Averaged long at .0935 (4 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at .011. 5) ZLAB - Averaged long at 125.7825 (4 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 76.94. 6) AU - Averaged long at 26.106 (6 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 19.85. 7) NEM - Averaged long at 60.137 (4 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 55.94. 8) QTWO - Purchased at 77.21. Stop loss at 73.41. Stock closed on Friday at 80.66. 9) RIO - Averaged long at 64.085 (2 mentions). Stock closed on Friday at 62.33. 10 ENG - Averaged long at 4.0325 (4 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 1.98. 11) MRGE - Purchased at .28. No stop loss at present. Stock closed at .07 on Friday. 13) CALM - Purchased at 34.99. Stop loss at 33.65. Stock closed on Friday at 36.91. 14) CHUY - Averaged long at 30.75 (2 mentions). Stop loss at 28.38. Stock closed on Friday at 30.70. 15) IDCC - Purchased at 71.76. No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 67.56. 16) BOIL - Liquidated at 57.49. Averaged long at 50.71. Profit on the trade of $1356 per 100 shares (2 mentions).
Previous Newsletters
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The opinions and commentaries by Mr. De Vito are not a recommendation to buy or sell, but rather
a charting guideline, based on his own knowledge and experience, regarding the stocks he is following or
that are brought to him by others. Mr. De Vito does not presently offer a track record of his trading experiences.
No inference of success and/or failure should be assumed. The
information enclosed above, regarding his background, length of trading, and experience, is correct
but is not meant to suggest, state, or infer any future success in trading, based on his opinions. The information herewith included should only be used by investors who are aware of the risk inherent in securities trading. Mr. De Vito accepts no liability whatsoever for any loss arising from any use of the information and/or comments he supplies. |
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