Issue #743
Dec 5, 2021 | Newsletter
The newsletter with chart analysis for stocks and stock indexes |
Stock Indexes Analysis/Evaluation
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| Confusion Regarding Omicron Generates Profit Taking and Selling!
DOW Friday closing price - 34580
RUT Friday closing price - 2159
The indexes are in a correction phase in which the SPX and the NASDAQ have generated 2 red closes in a row and dropped 5.3% and 7.3% respectively and the DOW having generated 4 red weekly closing in a row and dropping 7% in value. These drops are now officially considered a correction. It is important to note that during the last 10 years, only once (in 2018) did a correction occur going into December. Simply stated, this correction is not seasonal or normal and therefore meaningful to the overall bull trend. In 2018, the correction ended up being 19.5% and just shy of the 20% that normally means the bull trend is over.
The indexes all closed near the low of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's lows (DOW at 34006, SPX at 4495 and NASDAQ at 15543). Nonetheless and on a positive note, other than the DOW, nothing was broken on the chart other than minor short-term supports on the daily chart. The DOW did not break anything new but did confirm the failure signal on the weekly chart given the previous week.
What is strongly problematic for the bulls is that this seasonal abnormality is being caused by factors that are totally unclear at this time and with no clear time frame for resolution (such as the new Covid variant called Omicron), meaning that established areas of support are not dependable. In addition, such uncertainty normally generates preventive loss liquidation of assets, meaning that further downside is the most likely scenario until more is known about the negatives of the new variant. Such information is not likely to become available for weeks or even months.
In looking at the charts, there are clearly defined levels of support that if broken, would automatically trigger more (and stronger) liquidation interest. In the DOW that level is located at 33271 (on an intraweek basis). By the same token, a break below the most recent low at 33613 would likely generate enough selling interest to go down and break the support at 33271. The 33613 level is only 957 points below Friday's close and given that the index had a 1281 point trading range last week, a drop to that area is a definitely possibility.
The SPX and the NASDAQ have been the stalwarts of the bull trend and therefore they (not the DOW) are the ones that have to be watched closely this week. In both cases, the pivotal levels of support are not close by and therefore not "likely" to be reached this week. Nonetheless, there are levels close by that if broken would open the door for more (perhaps much more). In the SPX, the level the traders will watch (on a daily closing basis) is 4535. That level is the previous all-time high daily close and a close below it would weaken the chart. The index closed at that level on Friday and that means that starting on Monday, the traders will be able to get an idea of how the week will turn out. A green close on Monday would give the bulls some ammunition, while a red close would do the opposite. If the index does close red on Monday, the next and strongly pivotal level to watch would be 4278. A break of that level would be a strong sell signal.
In the NASDAQ, which under the present circumstances with the new variant should be the strongest of the indexes, the first level to watch is 15675. With the index closing on Friday at 15712, the same thing as with the SPX applies. A red or green close on Monday will likely set the tone for the week. If that level is broken, the next level to watch is 14800, which is where a breakaway gap that has not been closed is found. Below that level, the 14384 level is pivotal to the bull trend. It also needs to be mentioned that the 200-day MA is currently at 14526, meaning that a break of that line would also generate additional selling as that line has not been broken since March 2020 and was only broken because of the first announcement of the pandemic came out. A break of that line (and the support at 14384 would be a clear signal that the 13-year bull trend has come to an end.
Using the 19.5% correction seen in the NASDAQ in 2018, a similar correction now would suggest a drop down to 13945 could occur (if mimicked). To all of this and going back to the uptrend channel that I have mentioned repeatedly over the past 4 months and that was actually broken to the upside during the recent move up by 300 points above the line. The bottom of that channel is presently at 15000. Given that it was broken to the upside by 300 points, the same could occur to the downside, meaning a drop down to 14700 could be seen. In evaluating all this chart information, it can be clearly thought that the index could drop an additional 1000 points before any strong chart-buying interest is found.
The little information that has come out about the new Omicron variant is that it is very infectious but not as deadly as the Delta. Key on the word "little" information as that could easily change. Nonetheless and in looking at the most likely probabilities within this scenario, I would say that the NASDAQ will likely fall to the 15000-14700 level during the next week or two and then begin a recovery toward the end of Xmas.
To the upside and on the NASDAQ, there are two levels to watch. The first one is on a daily closing basis and at 16025. A daily close above that level would mean the worry about the new variant has been lowered (or even eliminated). The second level in on an intraweek basis and it is at 16464. A break above that level would totally negate the recent breakdown and put the bulls in a position to resume the uptrend. With the index closing on Friday at 15712, it means that support is about 1000 points lower and resistance about 764 points higher. As such, the possible trading range for December and without any special meaning is as much as 1764 points
The probabilities do favor the bears as of right now, but then only slightly.
OIL continued lower, generating the 6th red weekly close in a row. Oil has now fallen 20.9% from the weekly closing high at 83.76 (closed on Friday at 66.26) and has given notice that the bull trend is over (any drop of over 20% is considered a trend change). Oil closed in the lower half of the week's trading range, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 62.48 will be seen this week. Oil is now facing a very pivotal intraweek support at 61.74 (a 28-week low) that if broken would likely mean it is on a midterm bear trend. Such a break would likely generate even more selling (and likely stronger) than seen recently. A confirmed break of 61.74 could open the door for a drop all the way down to the 42.50 level. Nonetheless, the inflation scenario presently in place does not suggest that support level will be broken (Gold rallied this week because of the inflation scenario), meaning that the probabilities favor Oil going below last week's low by a small amount and then turning around to generate a green weekly close next Friday. In fact and because Oil closed on Friday $4 above the low, it does open the door for the possibility of having an inside week (no break of the low or the high seen last week. Such as scenario happens less than 20% of the time but it is possible. If Oil does not break 61.74, the probabilities favor a recovery rally with 72.83-76.90 as the upside target to be seen over the next 3-6 weeks. There are 6 resistance levels above, starting with 69.62 (minor), 70.61 (minor to perhaps decent), 73.14 (minor to decent), 74.23 (decent) and at 75.52 (minor to decent) and at 76.90 (decent to perhaps strong). Any rally now above 76.90 will require a positive and tangible fundamental piece of news. Probabilities favor the bulls this week.
DOLLAR generated another green weekly close (6th in a row) but the momentum has clearly stalled as the last 3 weekly closes have been 96.03, 96.09 and Friday's close at 96.12. The Dollar closed "very slightly" in the upper half of the week's trading range, suggesting a very slightly higher chance of going above last week's high at 96.64 than going below last week's low at 95.52. Nonetheless and in looking at the daily chart, the Dollar closed in the lower half of Friday's trading range, suggesting further downside below Friday's low at 95.97 is likely to be seen on Monday. If that occurs, the chart will show a 2nd successful retest of the high with Friday's high at 96.45 (the first was on Tuesday at 96.64). Such action will give the bears a slight edge and if 95.52 is broken, new selling interest will occur, especially since there is now a double low on the daily chart at that price. Below 95.52 there is no support found until 94.64 and even then, that support is found on the weekly closing chart. The Dollar has now tested the pivotal resistance at 96.98 and as such and unless there is some immediate indication that the Fed is planning to raise interest rates sooner, the probabilities are that the Dollar will now get into a 94.64-96.36 trading range for the next few weeks or months (based on weekly closes). Probabilities favor the bears this week.
BITCOIN dropped 23% in value from the previous week's close to the intraweek low seen today at 42101. If Bitcoin closes out the week (tomorrow night at 12:00 pm) below 51524, it will have dropped 20% from the all-time high weekly close, meaning that the bull-run is officially over. Bitcoin is presently trading at 49500 so there is still a possibility such a signal will not be given. Nonetheless, it has now dropped 39% in value over the past 4 weeks and that strongly suggests that the bull-run is "over" and that a sideways trend will ensue. On a positive note, the intraweek pivotal support at 39678 has not been broken and having rallied already over 7000 points from the early low seen today, does suggest the worse is over and that 42101 will now become the new intraweek support. The middle of the week's trading range is at 50637 and if the bulls can close there tomorrow night at 12:00 pm, the probabilities will strongly favor a recovery starting next week. If that occurs, the upside objectives would be 58238, or 61468 or at the very most at 64874. The latter though, is not likely to be seen without some positive fundamental piece of news. The situation with inflation and the interest rate scenario is not yet clear, suggesting that no decision for the long run will be made until that is fully clear and that is not likely to happen anytime soon. As such, the charts suggest that a 44000-61000 trading range will be seen for the next few months.
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Stock Analysis/Evaluation
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CHART Outlooks
Due to the confusion being felt in the market regarding the Omicron strain of the virus and the consequence it may (or may not) bring and the now changing stance of the Fed, in conjuntion with the reaction seen in the market this past week, I have no new mentions in the newsletter. In fact and unless some decisive things occur in the market this week (unlikely), it is now looking like December will not offer any clear and highly profitable opportunities for trades. It is possible that I will have no mentions the entire month.
There is one area of the market (the metaverse) that is beginning to grab the attention of the market and there is one stock in that metaverse (RBLX) that best represents that new industry. I am following the stock and if an opportunity to buy the stock is seen, I will mention it. Nonetheless, at this time the stock is not near a desired entry point and even if it was, I would need to see that the market overall is going to do before giving any mention. The stock bears watching though.
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Updates
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| Monthly & Yearly Portfolio Results
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Closed Trades, Open Positions and Stop Loss Changes
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Status of account for 2007: Profit of $9,758 per 100 shares after losses and commissions were subtracted.
Status of account for 2020: Loss of $16,684 per 100 shares after losses and commissions were subtracted. Status of account for 2020, as of 11/1 Profit of $5,486 using 100 shares per mention (after commissions & losses) Closed out profitable trades for October per 100 shares per mention (after commission)
ZLAB (long) $51 AAPL (short) $149 ZLAB (short) $1132 BOIL (long) $1356 Closed positions with increase in equity above last months close minus commissions. NONE Total Profit for November, per 100 shares and after commissions $2688 Closed out losing trades for November per 100 shares of each mention (including commission)
NONE
Closed positions with decrease in equity below last months close plus commissions.
CRON (long) $87 Total Loss for November, per 100 shares, including commissions $762 Open positions in profit per 100 shares per mention as of 11/30
QTWO (long) $946
Open positions with increase in equity above last months close.
AU (long) $1476
NEM (long) $276 CALM (long) $0 Total $2839 Open positions in loss per 100 shares per mention as of 11/30
IDCC (long) $307
Open positions with decrease in equity below last months close.
ENG (long) $144 Total $11366 Status of trades for month of November per 100 shares on each mention after losses and commission subtracted.
Loss of $6,601
Status of account/portfolio for 2021, as of 11/30
Loss of $1,146 per 100 shares.
AU made a new 27-week intraweek high and weekly closing high and did generate a green weekly close, making the previous week's close into a successful retest of what is now weekly close support at the $20 demilitarized zone. Nonetheless, the stock closed slightly in the lower half of the weeks' trading range, suggesting a slightly higher probability of going below last week's low at 19.97 than above last week's high at 22.47. The stock did close on the high of Friday's trading range, suggesting the first course of business for the week will be to the upside and above Friday's high at 21.13. Important intraweek resistance for the week is found at 21.80. If that is broken, the stock is likely to continue higher and make a new rally high. To the downside, the 200-day MA is currently a 19.80 and on a daily closing basis, that level should hold up unless Gold breaks below $1750 (see Gold evaluation). Probabilities for the week are even.
BTZI, in only 1 week, totally negated the big sell signal given 3 weeks ago and confirmed the previous week. The stock generated a positive reversal week and a weekly close above the previous all-time low weekly at .026, above the previous 56-week low at .037, as well as above the most recent low weekly close at .047, which was set in September and had been the support for 2 months before being broken. The negation of all 3 of those breaks is a statement that suggests the break that occurred was pure manipulation and not indicative of what the future is to bring to the stock. The stock closed in the upper half of the week's trading range, suggesting further upside above last week's high at .08 will be seen this week. The .083 level (.078 on a weekly closing basis) is pivotal intraweek resistance, which if broken offers open air to the .014 level. The 200-day MA is currently at .0826, meaning that entire area is clearly the battleground where the fight will be decided. Daily close support is found at .046 and again at 0394. A break of both, would be a negative sign, especially now that the bulls were able to accomplish what they accomplished this past week. On a possible negative note, the stock is "somewhat tied in" to what Bitcoin does and Bitcoin has given notice that its bull run is over and that it is likely in a sideways phase. If so, and the stock reacts to that, it is likely that the stock will get into a sideways phase itself between .046 and .078 (based on daily closes) for the foreseeable future. CALM made a new 6-week intraweek and weekly closing low and closed near the low of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 35.60 will be seen this week. This move down means that the stock remains in a midterm sideways market with no outlook for a breakout anytime soon. Downside objective is somewhere between a minimum of 35.43 and a likely maximum of 35.09 without any change in the chart. A break below the intraweek support at 34.29 will weaken the chart and give the bears a clear edge. A break above 38.09 resistance will do the exact opposite. Probable trading range for the rest of the year (December) is between 35.09 and 37.23. CHUY generated a new 10+ month intraweek and weekly closing low and closed in the lower half of the week's trading range, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 26.88 is likely to be seen this week. Nonetheless, the 200-week MA is currently at 26.43 and that is a line that has not been broken for the past 53 weeks and unlikely to be broken unless the index market continues lower. The new multi-month weekly closing low is worrisome but then again, the stock has done that on 3 previous occasions over the past 3 months and on every occasion before it recovered immediately (on a weekly closing basis). It is important to note that the index market is facing an important week where a break is possible and if that happens, the stock is likely to continue lower. Nonetheless and on the index market, probabilities do not favor the bears. There is intraweek support at 24.85, which if broken would give the bears total control. In order to negate this break, the bulls need to generate a daily close above 29.47 this week. A close above that level will suggest the stock is to continue the pattern seen the past 3 months with a rally immediately after the break of support. ENG made a new 55-week intraweek and weekly closing low and closed on the low of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 1.58 will be seen this week. The break of all the supports built since the November 2020 breakout is a strong negative, meaning there is no buying interest at this time. Nonetheless and on a possible positive note, the stock has reached the 200-week MA, currently at 1.58, and that line represents the long-term prospects for the stock and given there has been no fundamental changes seen, it is unlikely to be broken. A green weekly close next Friday would suggest the worst is over and some recovery likely to be seen. On the other side, this break means the bulls have no reason to buy at this time. On a daily closing basis, the 1,80 level is now resistance that needs to be broken for any recovery rally to begin. Following this stock for years and seeing how it normally acts, the probabilities favor it trading between 1.58 and 1.80 (based on daily closes) for the rest of the year. The 1.58 level does not only represent the 200-week MA but also a decent and pivotal daily close support. Probabilities favor the bulls this week but for a limited gain. IDCC generated another red weekly close (the 3rd in a row) but it was relatively uneventful given that it only closed $.03 cents below the previous week's close. The stock did close near the low of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 66.55 will be seen this week. On a positive note, the stock remains above the 200-week MA, currently at 65.97, is a positive, especially considering the weakness seen in the index market. Pivotal intraweek support is found at 65.79, which if broken will likely change the chart picture to short-midterm negatve. Resistance is now found at 69.74 and that resistance is further strengthened by the 200-day MA, which is currently at 70.08. Two daily closes in a row above 70.08 would be a positive note that would likely generate new buying interest. Stop losses should remain at 65.65. MRGE made a new all-time intraweek low at .0001 but the break was not confirmed when the stock rallied to close at .0499, which is within the established support area between .048 and .052 that has been seen on 4 other occasions during the past 44 months. The stock did close in the upper half of the week's trading range, suggesting further upside above last week's high at .07 will be seen this week. The move down this week is much like what happened to BTZI on its move to all-time lows. Both of these stocks are penny stocks and any kind of strong liquidation of positions by any one trader can generate wild moves that are mostly meaningless to the long term. Nonetheless, the bulls do need to generate a green weekly close next Friday because a red close below .048 will weaken the chart substantially. NEM generated a new 17-month intraweek low but then the bears failed to confirm the break, having closed out the week above the two most recent low weekly closes at 53.56 and at 54.00 (closed on Friday at 54.67). As such, the stock continues to look supported and if a green close occurs next Friday, the 53.36 weekly close support will have 2 successful retests of it, which would likely give the bulls some new ammunition. The stock did close slightly in the upper half of the week's trading range, suggesting a higher chance of going above last week's high at 56.52 than going below last week's low at 52.60. It must be mentioned that the intraweek low for the past 19 months is at 52.33 and that is also the level from which the breakout occurred that took the stock up to the $75 level, meaning that this area is extremely pivotal for the future of the stock. If the bulls can get the stock above last week's high this week and generate a green weekly close next Friday, the chart will be "totally fulfilled" to the downside and the traders will start to focus on upside objectives. If this level breaks, the overall long term trend will change as well. QTWO generated a break of consequence this past week given that it not only made a new 19-month intraweek and weekly closing low but broke the 200-week MA (currently at 79.78, which is a line that has never been broken on a weekly closing basis since the inception of the stock in 2014. In addition to the break, a new sell signal was generated when the stock closed on Friday below the previous low weekly close at 76.28. There was no new news to support the break but it was reported that insider selling was what caused the drop. In looking at the volume, it did double on Friday over the volume the previous 4 days. The stock was downgraded 4 weeks ago but it was still considered a buy given that the downgrade was a price-wise drop in upside objective from $105 down to $100. If it was insider selling (in conjunction with the indexes selling off) that caused the drop, it is possible the break will be negated this week. Nonetheless, such a chart break of a pivotal line does do chart damage, meaning that the stock is no longer a dependable purchase. There is no intraweek support below until 67.60 is reached. With the stock closing on the low of the week, further downside below last week's low at 71.29 is expected to be seen this week. On a possible positive note and since there was no fundamental change to the stock, a break of such an important line as the 200-week MA is, the probabilities are high that the line will be retested within the next 2-3 weeks, meaning that liquidation at this time should not be considered unless the entire index market breaks down. On a weekly closing basis, resistance will now be found at 76.28 but intraweek there is no resistance 81.61 is reached. By the same token, the bulls will need a daily close above 73.80 to accomplish an attempt to go higher. SNDL, like many other stocks, made a new multi-month intraweek and weekly closing low and closed on the low of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at .0551 will be seen this week. There is no intraweek support found until the .50 level is reached. That support is pivotal, given that if broken, the .40 level would be the next target. Daily close resistance is now found at .0634. Two daily closes in a row above that level would negate this break. Nonetheless and with all Cannabis stock under sell pressure and breaking down, there is little positives that can be expected at this time. On a daily closing basis, there is decent support at .56 and with the stock closing at .564 on Friday, a green close on Monday would be short-term supportive. The probabilities favor the stock trading between .56 and .634 (based on daily closes) for the rest of the month. SRUTF was able to generate a green weekly close, negating the technical break of weekly close at .0284 that occurred last week when the stock closed at .028. If another green weekly close occurs next Friday, a double bottom will be created, which would be supportive for the stock. The .036 level is now pivotal daily close resistance. A close above that level would mean the downside is over. The stock has done like for the past few months though there has been a slight negative bias. If a double bottom is confirmed the negative bias will likely go away. By the same token and until the Cannabis market start to move up, the probabilities of a sideways market being seen are high. ZLAB continued the downtrend, having made another new 17-month intraweek and weekly closing low and another red weekly close (the 5th in a row and the 12th out of the last 13 weeks). All intraweek support levels of any consequence have now been broken and there is only minor levels of intraweek support below (at 62.89 and at 58.59). The stock did close on the low of the week and further downside below last week's low at 64..01 is expected to be seen. Nonetheless, no negative fundamental news has come out to support these price levels and more importantly, the stock got down to the 200-week MA currently at 67.36 this past week. The stock did close below that level (closed at 65.37) but if a green close occurs next Friday and above 67.36, it will be seen as a successful retest of the line. By the same token, another red close next Friday would confirm the break and that would change the chart totally into a no longer long-term bull market. There was some good news on Friday morning as it was officially announced that one of their cancer drugs has been put on the national reimbursement list, meaning that it can officially be used by the doctors and they will be reimbursed by the medical insurance companies. It did not make a difference to the price on Friday but then again all index markets were under pressure that day. I do have to believe that reaching this long-term important MA line will make a difference but now the bulls need to prove that it will.
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1) SNDL - Averaged long at .905 (2 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at .564. 2) CHUY - Averaged long at 30.75. Stop loss now at 28.40. Stock closed on Friday at 28.21 3) SRUTF - Averaged long at .0738 (3 mentions). No stop loss at moment. Stock closed on Friday at .030. 4) BTZI - Averaged long at .0935 (4 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at .054. 5) ZLAB - Averaged long at 125.7825 (4 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 65.37. 6) AU - Averaged long at 26.106 (6 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 20.94. 7) NEM - Averaged long at 60.137 (4 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 54.67. 8) QTWO - Purchased at 77.21. Stop loss at 73.41. Stock closed on Friday at 71.96. 9) RIO - Liquidated at 64.15. Averaged long at 64.085. Profit on the trade of $7 per 100 shares (2 mentions). 10 ENG - Averaged long at 4.0325 (4 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 1.65. 11) MRGE - Purchased at .28. No stop loss at present. Stock closed at .0499 on Friday. 13) CALM - Purchased at 34.99. Stop loss at 33.65. Stock closed on Friday at 35.76. 14) CHUY - Averaged long at 30.75 (2 mentions). Stop loss at 28.38. Stock closed on Friday at 28.21. 15) IDCC - Purchased at 67.19. Averaged long at 69.475 (2 mentions). Stock closed on Friday at 67.53. 16) BOIL - Liquidated at 57.49. Averaged long at 50.71. Profit on the trade of $1356 per 100 shares (2 mentions).
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The opinions and commentaries by Mr. De Vito are not a recommendation to buy or sell, but rather
a charting guideline, based on his own knowledge and experience, regarding the stocks he is following or
that are brought to him by others. Mr. De Vito does not presently offer a track record of his trading experiences.
No inference of success and/or failure should be assumed. The
information enclosed above, regarding his background, length of trading, and experience, is correct
but is not meant to suggest, state, or infer any future success in trading, based on his opinions. The information herewith included should only be used by investors who are aware of the risk inherent in securities trading. Mr. De Vito accepts no liability whatsoever for any loss arising from any use of the information and/or comments he supplies. |
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