Issue #745
Dec 19, 2021 | Newsletter
The newsletter with chart analysis for stocks and stock indexes |
Stock Indexes Analysis/Evaluation
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| Index Market Likely to Trade Sideways the Rest of the Year!
DOW Friday closing price - 35365
RUT Friday closing price - 2173
The indexes all generated red weekly closes and near the lows of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's lows (DOW below 35284, SPX below 4600, and NASDAQ below 15664 will be seen this week. The DOW and the SPX all generated negative reversal weeks, having gone above the previous week's highs and then closing red.
In the DOW and in the NASDAQ, the red weekly closes generated a successful retest of the all-time high weekly closes and given that has not occurred previously and there are no economic reports of consequence due out for another 3 weeks, it does suggest the bears will have the edge the rest of the year. In the SPX, a failure signal was given as the index had broken above the previous all-time weekly closing high the previous week but negated that break convincingly this past Friday. In fact, the 2 weekly closes being at 4697 and at 4712 are close enough as to be seen as a potential double top. Though all indexes gave viable and dependable-for-the-next-few-weeks signals, none of the signals given have yet to be confirmed as major signals for the longer term, given that no break of weekly close supports (a new sell signal) were given this past week. Simply stated, these signals are only dependable until the beginning of the New Year. It is interesting to note that the week just before Xmas, has generally been a down week and the week after Xmas (before New Year) is generally an up week, suggesting that this coming week more selling will be seen. The market is closed on Friday (the 24th) and therefore there will only be 4 trading days this week.
The levels the traders will be watching this week will all be support levels that need to hold up so as not to give the kind of technical negative signal that would be difficult to overcome the following week and especially at the beginning of the year. By nature, the market usually generates up movement the first week of the year as people that got out at the end of the year, normally buy back at the beginning of the year. As such, these are the levels the traders will be paying close attention to this week. In the DOW there is no intraweek level close by that is pivotal but on a weekly closing basis, a close next Thursday below 34580 would generate a new sell signal that would be difficult to overcome. In the SPX and on a daily closing basis, the 4513 level is pivotal support. On a weekly closing basis, that level is at 4538. In the NASDAQ and on a daily closing basis, the 15675 level is pivotal On a weekly closing basis, it is at 15652. It is evident that the NAZ is the index closest to pivotal support level and as such, will be the index most closely watched all week. Nonetheless and in looking at the past 10 years, the average trading range the week before Xmas has been under 120 points (with only 2 exceptions), suggesting that even though it is likely the inexes will continue lower, it is not likely much will happen this week.
The probabilities of any kind of a rally happening this week are low. The news that came out last week is somewhat supportive to the market and therefore it is unlikely there be enough interest (or participation) in attempting to break the support levels below. By the same token and given the action seen this past week, if anything of consequence does occur, it will likely be to the downside. I should point out though, that the RUT did close just 14 points above a pivotal weekly close support at 2159 (closed on Friday at 2173) and should that level get broken this week, it will be a decent negative. The reality is that the RUT should actually begin to outperform the other indexes, as the stocks in that index are generally oversold (not overbought like in the NAZ, for example) and there is a definite possibility this index could actually rally this week. As it is, the RUT was the only index that generated a green daily close on Friday. If that does occur, it will increase the chances that the overall market is entering the final phase of the 13-year bull market.
OIL generated a difficult-to-understand week as it had an inside week (failed to go above the previous week's high in spite of closing near the high of the week) and a red close in the lower half of the week's trading range, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 69.39 will be seen this week. This was the opposite to what was expected to happen this past week. On the other side of the coin and using the "daily" chart, oil is showing a bullish flag formation with the flagpole being the 6-day rally from 62.43 to 73.39 and the flag being the trading range down to 69.36 seen the past 7 days. The flag offers an 80.35 objective if the 73.39 level gets broken (off of the formation as it is now). It is evident that if Oil goes below last week's low by more than $.10 cents, that the flag formation will lose its strength. By the same token, a rally (instead of weakness) and a break above 73.39 will offer much more upside than the weekly chart suggests will occur (with the $74-$77 level as the upside objective right now). As such, this coming week is likely to shed some additional light into what is to happen. By the same token and knowing what usually happens on Xmas week, the probabilities suggest that neither will decided at this time and Oil trade between 69.39 (or very slightly lower) and up near to 73.39 for the next two weeks and nothing get decided either way.
DOLLAR generated a small additional breakout this past week (above the one that occurred 7 weeks ago when it broke above 94.64), having broken an old (from April 2018) weekly close resistance at 96.36. The Dollar is on-a-roll, having generated 4 (out of 5) green weekly closes in a row and appreciated 3.9% over the past 7 weeks (big deal for a currency). The next weekly close resistance area is found at 97.44 and that level is expected to be reached over the next 2-6 weeks. This move up is all based on the Fed looking to raise interest rates next year, which would strengthen the dollar versus other currencies and are not looking to tighten. The new intraweek support area is now found at 95.52.
BITCOIN continued its 7-week downtrend from the all-time highs made in the first week of November, having generated a new12-week daily closing low on Friday. Bitcoin has consistently been making lower daily closing lows and highs since closing at the all-time high at 67526 on November 7th. It has dropped 31.6% in price during this time. The weekly close is tomorrow night at 12:00 pm and there is some minor support on the weekly closing chart at 46217. It is presently (Saturday at 2:00pm) at 46729). A close below that level tomorrow, would suggest that Bitcoin will continue dropping down to the minor to decent daily close support between 44698 and 44882, a level that is expected to hold up. If it doesn't hold up, new selling interest will emerge and the chart take on a new bearish outlook. Overall, Bitcoin should now be at (or near) a bottom to this short-term downtrend. With support showing within an area of 2000 points from where it is trading now, the risk/reward ratio favors the bulls. To the upside though, the daily close resistance at 52676 has now become decent resistance, meaning that until some new fundamental news comes out, Bitcoin is likely to trade in an 8000 point trading range between 44700 and 52700.
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Stock Analysis/Evaluation
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CHART Outlooks
I have no new mentions this week nor do I expect to give any until the New Year. Nonetheless, some day trades and overnight trades do remain a possibility. By the same token, the action this past week was important and indicative as it showed that the long term uptrend remains alive (though likely in a pause format). It does suggest that purchasing dips is still more attractive than selling rallies, though that is a bit more in question now than it has been for a long time.
One thing that does need to be watched from now on is the dichotomy between the RUT and the other indexes. The beginning of the end of a long term bull trend is normally shown by small cap stocks rallying (percentage-wise) above most all other stocks. The RUT did generate a green close on Friday while all other indexes generated a red close. If the dichotomy of the RUT vs the the other indexes continues this week, there may be some very good buying opportunities that present themselves in small cap stocks, starting perhaps as soon as this week. As such, I will keep an eye on that and let you know if the action does support buying anything over the next 2 weeks.
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Updates
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| Updates on Held Stocks |
Closed Trades, Open Positions and Stop Loss Changes |
| AU generated a green weekly close, suggesting the recent 2-week down draft is over. The stock closed in the upper half of the week's trading range, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 20.62 will be seen this week. If the stock goes above last week's high this week, last week's low will be the 2nd successful retest of the 200-week MA (currently at 17.95) and that should give the bulls further ammunition to continue high and on to the next upside resistance area at 13.85, which is an area that is longer term pivotal. Intraweek support remains at 17.92 but if the stock gets above 20.62, the support will rise to 18.73 (last weeks' low). Overall, the chart has a positive outlook. BTZI generated a positive reversal week, having made a new 2-week low and then closing green and near the high of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at .045 will be seen this week. The stock did show weakness at the beginning of the week, having broken the intra-week support at .034 (last week's low was .02) but in the end (and at the right time), the bulls were able to prevent the bears from getting their edge back. It is important to note that this close was accomplished in spite of Bitcoin dropping down additionally last week and with Bitcoin now close to an area of support of some consequence and likely to rally from here on in, it could be what the bulls in the stock need to generate new buying interest fundamentally. Intraweek resistance is not found until .061 is reached and then pivotal at .083. Support is now found at .02. Probabilities favor the bulls. CALM generated a wild week in which the high of the week was seen on Thursday and the low of the week on Friday and overall, the trading range for the week was higher and lower than what was seen the previous 2 weeks. This kind of action would normally be because of some new fundamental piece of news was released that changed the outlook. Nonetheless, there was no news, suggesting it was probably the quadruple witching day on Friday (option expiration day) that brought all the action. Overall, the stock generated a red weekly close but then only by $.07, suggesting the week was overall uneventful. One thing it likely did is make last week' trading range short-term pivotal. The high of the week was 37.49 and the low of the week was 35.15 and a break of either will likely push the stock down in that direction for the rest of the year. Overall though, pivotal intraweek resistance is found at 38.09 and pivotal intraweek support is found at 34.29. Probabilities favor the stock trading in that range until something catalytic comes out. CHUY made a new 11-month intraweek low at 26.42 but then turned around to close in the upper half of the week's trading range, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 29.00 will be seen this week. The 8.9% recovery at the end of the week does take on some new meaning, given that the 200-week MA is currently at 26.45 and if the stock gets above last week's high, that line will have been tested successfully. Such a successful retest of that important longer term line, is likely to bring in some short-covering action of consequence. Pivotal intraweek resistance is found at 30.34, which if broken would open the door for a rally at least up to 33.85. Last week's low at 26.42 should now be seen as pivotal support, which if broken would suggest the bears are in control. ENG generated a new 56-week intraweek and weekly closing low but did close in the upper half of the week's trading range, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 1.65 will be seen this week. The stock closed below the 200-week MA, currently at 1.59 but it was only by $.05, meaning it was not a "clear" break of the line. If the stock closes above 1.59 next Thursday, it will be considered a successful retest of the line. The low of the week was 1.41 and a break below that low would now be considered a negative statement. Pivotal intraweek resistance is found at 1.82. A break of that level would signal that the bottom of this move down has been found. IDCC generated a positive reversal week, having made a new 6-week intraweek low but the going above the previous week's high and closing green. The stock closed in the upper half of the week's trading range, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 71.99 will be seen this week. If the stock does go above last week's high, it will make last week's low at 66.09 into the 2nd successful retest of the 200-week MA and likely generating new buying interest that there are no scheduled economic or earnings events during the next two weeks to give ammunition to the bears. One important fact is that the stock closed just below the 200-day MA, currently at 70.32 (closed at 70.07) and if the bulls are able to close above that line this coming week, that will be a strong sign that the stock is heading higher. The stock has traded below that line on 14 of the past 15 days and a confirmed close above the line would be a clear positive. Minor intraweek resistance is found at 72.88 and strongly pivotal at 74.27. A break of that level will open the door wide for a rally to $80. Pivotal intraweek support is found at 65.79. Probabilities favor the bulls. NEM generated a positive reversal week, having made a new 2-week intraweek low and then turning around to make a new 19-week intraweek high. The stock closed in the upper half of the week's trading range, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 60.57 will be seen this week. If the stock does go above last week's high, last week's low at 53.16 will become the required/needed retest of the double low on the intraweek chart at 52.33/52.60 and would give new ammunition to the bulls to generate a recovery rally of consequence. There is minor intraweek resistance at 63.46 and again at 64.71 but if this breakout is confirmed, the upside target would become 68.45-72.22 area. The important level to watch this week is 60.84, which is where the 200-day MA is currently at. The stock has traded below that line for the past since July and a confirmed close above the line would give the bulls short-term control. On a daily closing basis, support should now be found at 57.91. Probabilities favor the bulls. SNDL generated a green weekly close and closed in the upper half of the week's trading range, suggesting further upside above last week's high at .6245 will be seen this week. Nonetheless, the bulls were not able to accomplish anything of note given that the stock remains below the previous low weekly close support at .643. On a positive note, medical Marijuana started to be featured in the media this past week and that could start bringing attention to the industry. As it is, it has been expected that the Cannabis market will start to move back up in 2022. There is short-term pivotal intraweek resistance at .639, which if broken would suggest a bottom to this move down has been found and open the door for a rally up to the .77 level. Intraweek support is now found at .525. Probabilities favor the bulls. SRUTF made a new all-time intraweek low at .0243 but then rallied to close near the high of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at .032 will be seen this week. The important thing is that the bulls were able to keep the stock from making a new all-time weekly closing low, given that the stock closed at .0289 and the all-time low weekly close is .028. With medical marijuana starting to be featured in the media, the chances of the low for this move down having been made has increased. Pivotal intraweek short-term resistance is found at .034 and pivotal mid-term resistance is at .0505. Probabilities slightly favor te bulls. ZLAB was the big story this week among held stocks. The stock generated a positive reversal week, having made a new 21-month intraweek low and the closing green and on the high of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 73.67 is expected to be seen this week. The stock generated a 33% rally from the low to the high of the week and the stock did close above the 200-week MA, currently at 67.84 (closed at 73.31), meaning that if another close above 67.84 occurs next Thursday, the stock will show a successful retest of the line. Such action should bring in a recovery rally (perhaps even a strong one). This is a stock that still shows rating companies valuing it at over $200 and having dropped to 49.41 was more about momentum than fundamental weakness. On the weekly chart, there is no resistance above until 89.48 is reached and that level is minor resistance. On the daily chart and on an intraweek basis, there is very minor but short-term pivotal resistance at 77.67. A rally above that level will mean a bottom has been confirmed. Intraweek support will now be found at 60.47. It is possible that just like the bears took advantage of the momentum to the downside to drive the stock down 72% in value over the past 3 months, that the same could happen in reverse with the bulls taking advantage of momentum (if it can be established this week). Probabilities favor the bulls.
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1) SNDL - Averaged long at .905 (2 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at .604. 2) CHUY - Averaged long at 30.75. Stop loss now at 28.40. Stock closed on Friday at 28.33. 3) SRUTF - Averaged long at .0738 (3 mentions). No stop loss at moment. Stock closed on Friday at .0289. 4) BTZI - Averaged long at .0935 (4 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at .04. 5) ZLAB - Averaged long at 125.7825 (4 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 73.31. 6) AU - Averaged long at 26.106 (6 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 20.00. 7) NEM - Averaged long at 60.137 (4 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 59.24. 8) RBLX - Purchased at 105.72 and at 95.20. Liquidated at 100.73. Profit on the trade of $54 per 100 shares (2 mentions). 9) ENG - Averaged long at 4.0325 (4 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 1.54. 10) MRGE - Purchased at .28. No stop loss at present. Stock closed at .009 on Friday. 11) CALM - Purchased at 34.99. Stop loss at 33.65. Stock closed on Friday at 36.15. 12) IDCC - Averaged long at 69.475 (2 mentions). Stop loss at 65.69. Stock closed on Friday at 70.07.
Previous Newsletters
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The opinions and commentaries by Mr. De Vito are not a recommendation to buy or sell, but rather
a charting guideline, based on his own knowledge and experience, regarding the stocks he is following or
that are brought to him by others. Mr. De Vito does not presently offer a track record of his trading experiences.
No inference of success and/or failure should be assumed. The
information enclosed above, regarding his background, length of trading, and experience, is correct
but is not meant to suggest, state, or infer any future success in trading, based on his opinions. The information herewith included should only be used by investors who are aware of the risk inherent in securities trading. Mr. De Vito accepts no liability whatsoever for any loss arising from any use of the information and/or comments he supplies. |
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