Issue #749
Jan 23, 2022 | Newsletter
The newsletter with chart analysis for stocks and stock indexes |
Stock Indexes Analysis/Evaluation
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| Indexes Fail to Rally as the Seasonal Tendency to Rally in January Suggests they Would! Door Open for the Bears.
DOW Friday closing price - 34265
The indexes experienced a strong down week in which new sell signals were generated across the board. The indexes closed on the lows of the week and in the case of the DOW and the SPX, within a few points of generating a dependable sign that the 13-year bull trend is over. In the case of the NASDAQ that sign was given on Friday when the index closed below 14791. As is always the case with any signal, they do have to be confirmed before they can be believed. With the monthly close being just 6 trading days away, it is then that confirmation or negation of the signal will be given. In the NASDAQ, a monthly close on January 31st below 14689 is what is needed. In the DOW and the SPX, closes below 33843 and below 4307 (respectively) is what is needed. The NAZ closed on Friday below that level but the DOW and the SPX are still above their levels, meaning that the bears have more to do in the next 6 days to generate confirmation of a top to the bull trend having been found.
Nonetheless, it was clearly evident this past week that the bulls have lost control as it was a pivotal week and the weekly chart support levels were clearly defined and the bulls were unable to defend them. In addition, NFLX reported earnings that they greatly disappointed and that is a fundamental negative that is difficult to ignore, given that the stock has been one of the stalwarts of the bull trend. The stock has now fallen 42.5% from the all-time high made just 3 months ago and has done it on the weekly closing chart. Anything above 20% is a sign that the bull trend has ended and the stock was already down 24% from the highs at the previous week's close, meaning that this week's additional move down was confirmation of the trend change. Last but not least, the stock closed clearly below the 200-week MA, currently at 422.61 (closed on Friday at 397.50) and that line had not been broken for a full 9 years.
This week, the bulls are likely to attempt to negate the negative signals given. The first thing they will try to do is get above the 200-day MA. In the DOW that is at 34962, in the SPX it is at 4429 and in the NASDAQ it is at 15003. There are quite a few important economic reports this week that are likely to keep the bears "at bay" until they come out. The first report of importance comes out on Tuesday at 10:00 am in the form of the Consumer Confidence report. It is expected to come out at 112 (last month it was 115.8). The lowest number seen in over a year was seen in November at 109.5. Anything lower than that would be an additional negative. The FOMC rate decision comes out on Wednesday and it is not expected that the Fed will be raising rates at this meeting. Nonetheless and with what has happened since the last meeting in December, it would not be surprising if something is not done or said that will be catalytic. The drop seen in the market would tend to steer the Fed Governors against any tightening right now but the uproar over inflation is so strong, that they may opt to tighten in some way. It is hard to figure out what the Fed with do but it will have some impact on the market. Last but not least, on Thursday the new GDP number comes out. GDP is expected to grow substantially. The previous number 3 months ago was at 2.3% and this one is expected to come out at 5.6% and if it is higher, it will be a plus for the indexes but anything lower would be a negative.
On the earnings front, this week is all about DOW stocks with IBM, MSFT, AXP, MMM, and TSLA reporting. These earnings reports are not likely to be catalytic. Nonetheless, AAPL reports on Thursday after the close and that report is likely to be as catalytical as it comes.
In the background to all of this is the seasonal tendency to have February be a down month in the index market. As such, it is very evident that the bulls need to make some kind of a bull statement "this week" in order to have "any" chance of turning this the negativity around that was generated this past week. One thing that does need to be mentioned is that an intraweek break in the SPX below 4278 will open the door for a drop all the way down to 3250.
Here are the daily close resistance levels in the indexes that need to be broken in order for the bulls to have a "chance" to negate last week's signals. In the DOW above the 15000 demilitarized zone (15030 or above), in the SPX above 4536 and in the NASDAQ above 15181. Failure to break above those levels will give the bears additional ammunition entering February.
The onus of proof is squarely on the shoulders of the bulls and at this time and seeing what happened this past week, I have to say that there is a better than an 70% probability of the 13-year bull trend being over. If the indexes close below the levels mentioned above on the monthly chart a week from tomorrow, the probabilities of the bull trend being over will rise to over 90%. If that occurs, the question will then be "whether a bear trend has begun or simply that the indexes will trade mostly sideways in 2022 with a slight bear bias.
OIL fulfilled the intraweek upside objective of 87.15 with a high last week at 87.91. Oil then sold off to close out the week at 85.15, which is a close in the lower half of the week's trading range, suggesting further downside below last week's low 82.78 will be seen this week. If that does occur, it is likely that the 87.91 intraweek high will be the high for at least a few weeks or even a couple of months. Nonetheless, Oil still generated a green weekly close, meaning that on a weekly closing basis there is still potential for more upside as the upside objective on a weekly closing basis is 86.15. The potential downside objective of a correction to this rally could be as low as $70 but buying interest will begin to be seen at $75. Any new intraweek high above 87.91 will open the door for further upside with potential for a rally up to $98.
DOLLAR generated and uneventful inside week but did generate a green weekly close and in the upper half of the week's trading range, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 95.86 will be seen this week. The action seen does suggest that at this time the correction is over and that the bulls will be attempting a recovery and perhaps even a new attempt to continue the uptrend. There is short-term pivotal daily close resistance at 95.99 that if broken would give the bulls back the edge. Nonetheless and for the bulls to get control back again, a daily close above 96.32 is required. To the downside, a weekly close below 95.15 would weaken the chart and a close below 94.64 would mean that the uptrend is over.
BITCOIN made a new 6-month intraweek and daily closing low and will likely close on the low of the week tonight (Sunday), suggesting further downside below last week's low (presently at 34079) will be seen this week. Based on a potential up channel (not yet built), the downside objective of this move down was the 33980 level and since that level was almost reached this past week, if the channel does exist, no further downside or any consequence should be seen. Nonetheless, if the channel is not built, the 32500 level is next established intraweek support level (minor) below. Pivotal intraweek support is found at 28991, which if broken would put Bitcoin into a downtrend. The channel is based on the 2 intraweek highs seen last year at 64374 and the all-time high at 68925. The difference between those 2 highs is 4549 points. Using the low made in July at 29431, it would suggest that if a channel is in place, a low of 33980 will be made and from which a rally toward the top of the channel will begin. With this week's low at 34079 and a likely close near the low of the week that suggests further downside will be seen and that further downside should be no more than around 100 points, suggesting this coming week could be a turn-around week for Bitcoin. Pivotal intraweek resistance is found at 46616. If that level is broken, probabilities will favor the correction being over.
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Stock Analysis/Evaluation
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CHART Outlooks
The action seen this past week was damaging to the bulls but does need to be confirmed before traders change their minds. After a 13-year uptrend in which buying dips was the "thing to do", it is unlikely that the action seen over "1" week will be convincing enough to have traders change their thinking. By the same token, it was a negative signal that the traders will have a hard time ignoring and as such, the traders will likely wait at least until Wednesday's FOMC announcement before doing any changes. As such, purchasing or selling anything at the beginning of the week is a pure gamble.
I have no mentions at this time but I do know that whatever is decided on Wednesday is likely to last at least for the next 6-8 weeks, meaning that I may have some mentions mid-week. There are a lot of potential outlooks that will become available after this week, starting with the fact that usually at the end of a bull trend the small cap stocks rally. As such, I do believe we will see some of that begin to happen this week. Nonetheless, nothing tangible is likely to occur before Wednesday.
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Updates
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| Updates on Held Stocks |
Closed Trades, Open Positions and Stop Loss Changes |
| AU generated an outside positive reversal week, having made a new 9-week low and then going above the previous week's high and closing green and near the high of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 21.24 will be seen this week. The bulls were unable to generate a weekly close above the weekly close resistance at 20.94 but the probabilities do favor that happening this week. Pivotal support remains at 17.92, which if broken would damage the chart for the bull side. The overall outlook of the chart leans decidedly for the bulls, at least for a rally to the $24 level. BTZI bulls were unable to confirm the previous week's technical breakout, having closed red and in the lower half of the week's trading range, suggesting further downside below last week's low at .0405 will be seen this week. Nonetheless, the main reason for the lack of follow through was the weakness seen in Bitcoin and there is a high probability that Bitcoin will start to recover this week and if that happens, the stock will start a new rally. Pivotal daily close resistance is found at .08 but any daily close above .0585 would suggest a rally up to the .08 level would likely occur. Short-term pivotal support is found at .0387 and midterm pivotal support is found at .03. Overall, the chart is leaning in favor of the bulls for the time being. CALM generated a negative reversal week, having made a new 10-month intraweek high and then closing red and in the lower half of the week's trading range suggesting further downside below last week's low at 40.48 will be seen this week. The stock now shows 3 defined points on the 7-year long-term downtrend channel and if the overall market is going to head lower (should be known after Wednesday's FOMC meeting rate announcement), consideration should be given to taking profits on the trade. Nonetheless, if the bulls are able to rally and generate a daily close above 42.95, the outlook will then strongly favor the bulls. Stop loss should remain the 38.92. ENG generated a further breakdown and of consequence, having made a new 26-month intraweek and weekly closing low and closing on the low of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at .87 will be seen this week. The $1 psychological support level was broken but then again, there has been no new fundamental negative and the stock is now trading below its book value, suggesting this break was more manipulation-by-the-traders than any actual negatives involved. If that is correct, the stock should generate a rally back up this week and a close above the $1 level this week. There really is nothing that the bears can shoot for now to the downside and some recovery should start to be seen this week. The 1.29 level remains pivotal on the monthly chart and with the monthly close 6 trading days away, there is a decent chance that the stock will rally to close above 1.29 next Monday. FSLR generated a new 6-month intraweek and weekly closing low and closed near the low of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 76.48 will be seen this week. The stock has fallen 38% over the past 10 weeks and has now shown 9 weeks in a row of red weekly closes, something that has not happened to the stock in the last 10 years (time-period checked). There has been no specific negative news come out on the stock and it is presently trading below the lowest analyst's price predictions for the stock ($83). On a chart basis, the stock is near an area of "strong" weekly close support between 70.32 and 77.95, with most of the support being found around the $73 area, suggesting that the risk/reward ratio in this falling stock is now favoring the bulls. There is now intraweek resistance found at 81.87 (minor) and a bit stronger around the $90 level. Energy stocks are not the key of the bears (Tech stocks are) and given that a strong support area has been reached, the probabilities of a green weekly close occurring this week are high. IDCC generated a new 5-week low and closed on the low of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 67.59 will be seen this week. No damage was done to the chart in spite of the negatives that occurred in the index market. Nonetheless, the stock now finds itself in a positive that further downside could damage the chart if it happens. Short-term pivotal daily close support is found at 66.93 and midterm pivotal at 65.59. A break of either level will give the edge to the bears. On a daily closing basis, short-term pivotal resistance is found at 70.87. If that level is broken, the bulls will gain the edge back. Probabilities do slightly favor the bulls for a green weekly close next Friday but it is now potentially a pivotal week. NEM generated a new 6-month intraweek and weekly closing high and closed slightly in the upper half of the week's trading range, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 65.49 will be seen this week. If that does occur, there is not resistance above until the $70 level is reached. The stock did generate a gap last Wednesday between 61.30 and 61.91 that should be closed this week. In addition, the 200-day MA is currently at 60.85. That area is the downside objective for this week. A break below last week's low at 60.335 would weaken the chart. Probabilities favor the bulls. QQQ made a new 16-week intraweek and weekly closing low and closed on the low of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 351.40 will be seen this week. Pivotal intraweek support is found at 350.32, which if broken would open the door for a drop down to $340 or even $320. The stock closed below the 200-day MA, currently at 365.58, and that is a strong negative. If the 350.32 level is not broken on Monday, a rally back up to the MA line is likely to ensue before any new decisions are made by the traders. Nonetheless, this past week was a pivotal week and unless the bulls are able to negate the break of the weekly close support at 360.18 next Friday, further downside is likely to occur. Probabilities favor the bulls for a rally at the beginning of the week and then based on what the Feds do on Wednesday, decisions will be made by the traders on direction. SNDL made a new 25-month intraweek and weekly closing low and closed on the low of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at .4659 will be seen this week. There is some decent and pivotal weekly close support at .471 that needs to hold up or the bears will get new ammunition. The stock closed at .478 on Friday. The bulls need to generate a daily close above .56 in order to stop the selling interest. Pivotal weekly close resistance is found at .67. The support level here is important and unless the market heads strongly lower, the bulls should be able to generate a green weekly close next Friday. SRUTF generated and outside week, having gone below the previous week's low and above the previous week's high. The stock closed in the middle of the week's trading range, suggesting equal opportunity of going below last week's low at .021 or above last week's high at .0348. If the latter occurs, a double bottom will have been built on the chart, suggesting that the downside is over. By the same token, any break below .020 will be another new negative. Given that the index market was under strong sell pressure and yet the stock closed green, it would suggest that the probabilities favor the bulls. ZLAB generated a positive reversal week, having gone below the previous week's low but then closing green. Nonetheless, the stock closed slightly below the midpoint of the week's trading range, suggesting a slightly higher probability of going below last week's low at 47.55 than going above last week's high at 55.29. By the same token, the fact that the stock was one of the few stocks that generated a green weekly close among the strong down move in the index market does suggest that there is buying interest here at the $50 level. Any rally above 55.29 would be a positive and a rally above 60.77 would suggest that a bottom has been found.
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1) SNDL - Averaged long at .905 (2 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at .478. 2) CHUY - Liquidated at 25.75. Averaged long at 30.75. Loss on the trade of $1000 per 100 shares (2 mentions). 3) SRUTF - Averaged long at .0738 (3 mentions). No stop loss at moment. Stock closed on Friday at .0278. 4) BTZI - Averaged long at .0935 (4 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at .0451. 5) ZLAB - Averaged long at 125.95 (4 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 50.58. 6) AU - Averaged long at 26.106 (6 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 20.25. 7) NEM - Averaged long at 60.137 (4 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 63.09. 8) ENG - Averaged long at 4.0325 (4 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at .865. 9) MRGE - Purchased at .28. No stop loss at present. Stock closed at .01 on Friday. 10) CALM - Purchased at 34.99. Stop loss at 33.65. Stock closed on Friday at 40.87. 11) IDCC - Averaged long at 69.475 (2 mentions). Stop loss at 65.69. Stock closed on Friday at 67.73. 12) RBLX - Liquidated at 76.71. Averaged long at 93.045 (2 mentions). Loss on the trade of $1267 per 100 shares (2 mentions). 13) FSLR - Purchased at 81.98. No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 76.82. 14) QQQ - :Purchased at 357.62. Stop loss at 349.65. Stock closed on Friday at 351.69.
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The opinions and commentaries by Mr. De Vito are not a recommendation to buy or sell, but rather
a charting guideline, based on his own knowledge and experience, regarding the stocks he is following or
that are brought to him by others. Mr. De Vito does not presently offer a track record of his trading experiences.
No inference of success and/or failure should be assumed. The
information enclosed above, regarding his background, length of trading, and experience, is correct
but is not meant to suggest, state, or infer any future success in trading, based on his opinions. The information herewith included should only be used by investors who are aware of the risk inherent in securities trading. Mr. De Vito accepts no liability whatsoever for any loss arising from any use of the information and/or comments he supplies. |
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