Issue #751
Feb 6, 2022 | Newsletter
The newsletter with chart analysis for stocks and stock indexes |
Stock Indexes Analysis/Evaluation
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| Inherent Weakness Being Seen. Positive Economic and Earnings Reports Fail to Generate Desired Result.
DOW Friday closing price - 35089
The indexes all generated a green weekly close across the board and all indexes moved in unison, appreciating anywhere between 1.3% and 1.7%, meaning that there was very little dichotomy involved. This does suggest that the traders were mostly keying on the overall market and not on what one industry or another was doing. The reports this past week were mostly bullish as the Jobs report came in substantially better than expected and the earnings reports on two of the 3 big and possibly catalytical companies (AMZN and GOOGL) were much better than expected. The only two reports that came in lower than expected were the ISM Index (very slightly lower than expected) and FB (much lower than expected). As such, the bulls should have had sufficient ammunition to make a bull statement. Nonetheless, that was not the case as all indexes either closed very slightly above the midpoint of the week's trading range (DOW and SPX) or below the midpoint of the trading range (NASDAQ and RUT), suggesting that the rally is faltering. This is even more clearly defined by the fact that the highs of the week did not represent any previously established levels of resistance, meaning that there was no price level where a coordinated effort to sell was used to push downward.
The much better than expected JOBS report actually turned out to be more of a negative than a positive as it suggests that the economy (and the market) are doing well enough to where raising interest rates will not cause a recession or a collapse in prices to occur. In simple words, the report was more of a hindrance to the bulls than a help. It also must be mentioned that the better than expected reports on GOOGL and AMZN also failed to give the bulls new ammunition. GOOG did make a new all-time intraweek high but then the bulls were unable to confirm that high on a closing basis, having closed below the previous all-time high daily close and also even worse, failed to break the previous and established successful retest of that high. By Friday, the stock had fallen 8% from the intraweek high made on Wednesday and Friday's weekly close even failed to generate a failure signal against the bears, with the stock having closed just 10 points above the breakdown weekly close point at 2850 (closed at 2860). In addition, the stock closed red on Thursday, making Wednesday close at 2960 into a successful retest of the 2963 successful retest of the all-time high daily close (at 3014), meaning that now the stock is showing 3 successful retests of the all-time high and this being done with a much better than expected earnings report. In the case of AMZN, the stock rallied over 20% in price after its earnings report but the bulls even failed to negate the break of support that caused the stock to make a new 52-week low the previous week. Both of these stocks represent the backbone of the bull trend that went on for 13 years and here, and in spite of beating earnings expectations, the bulls failed to generate any indicative strides on the chart, strongly reinforcing the belief that the top of the bull trend has been found.
What now? Well, to begin with, the indexes are facing a month (February) that is known to be a down month seasonally. There are no economic or earnings reports left for at least the next 4 weeks that could give the bulls ammunition for a rally. In fact, this coming week on Thursday, the CPI number comes out and that report has more of a probability of being a negative to the market than a positive. In other words, the bulls are facing a difficult scenario in which further appreciation of consequence will be difficult to accomplish. As such, the probabilities favor the bears overall. Nonetheless and chart-wise, the fact that the bulls were able to generate about an 8% rally from the lows seen the previous week and in the process (in the DOW and SPX), also generate a failure signal on the 200-day MA's, is a short-term positive. In addition, all indexes generated a failure signal against the bears, having negated the break of the pivotals daily and weekly close support levels. This action did open up the door for further upside over the next few weeks until the next set of important economic reports come and, most importantly, the FOMC rate decision in March where interest rates are going to rise. Nonetheless, the overall situation does favor the bears and though some short-term gains are possible, any unexpected chart action to the downside is likely to turn the short-term bulls into bears.
As such, I am giving you here what is chart-expected to happen. Anything out of this scenario, and especially to the downside, is likely to be a strong negative signal. The indexes have a high likelihood of going below last week's lows as a "successful" retest of the lows would be a short-term positive. This means that in the DOW, a drop below last week's low at 34496 would not be a negative. Nonetheless, a drop below the already built intraweek support at 33807 would begin to give the bears new ammunition and any break below the intraweek support at 33613 would suggest the bears are gaining control for further downside below the previous week's low at 33150. In the SPX, the same scenario is found using these levels (4414, 4309, 4278 and 4222). In the NASDAQ these are the levels in play (14442, 14384, 13880, and 13724). In all indexes, a break below the latter number would be a sell signal of consequence.
The NASDAQ will be the index to watch this week as the Tech industry is in the spotlight right now, especially with two much better than expected earnings reports this past week in AMZN and GOOG. The index gapped down on Thursday 14960 and 14856. If that gap is followed by another gap down on Monday (or any day this week without the first gap getting closed), it will generate a breakaway/runaway formation that would likely be impossible to negate under the present circumstances. It could be the beginning of the "bursting of the bubble" that Jeremy Grantham is calling for. On the other hand, if the bulls are able to close the gap, it will take ammunition away from the bears and give the bulls a chance to go up a bit more.
Let me repeat, a gap down on the NASDAQ on Monday (below 14552) would be a cause of great concern and would suggest strongly that consideration be given to liquidating positions at risk of a big drop in price. On the other side of the coin, any rally this week above last week's high at 15156, would give the bulls some new short-term ammunition for further upside.
OIL had a big week up as the threat of Russia attacking Ukraine continued to increase. Under that scenario, Oil demand would increase while supply decrease. Having said that, Oil does find itself at a pivotal level of resistance at 92.72 (based on the weekly close). There is a double bottom at that price, which was generated in 2013, and that when broken, caused Oil to drop down to $45 over the next 7 months. As such, that level is pivotal as to what Oil will do from here. A failure to break above that level will likely generate a drop back down to the $80 level, while a break above that level, a rally perhaps as high as $100. Evidently, the decision will likely be made fundamentally, based on what happens in the Russia/Ukraine situation. Then again, the bulls are the ones needing action while the bears the opposite (no action) and therefore the probabilities favor the bears at this time. Oil closed on Friday at 91.95, which means that the bears can still allow for a higher close next Friday (around 92.72) without suffering defeat. Given that this is a fundamental issue, there is no way to determine the probabilities either way. Suffice it to say, that if nothing happens between Russia and the Ukraine, the bears are likely to come out the winners.
DOLLAR gave up all of its gains accomplished the previous week when a breakout of the resistance at 96.36 occurred. The Dollar closed on Friday at 95.48 and a failure signal against the bulls occurred. As such, the outlook for the Dollar at this time is clouded and not likely to be determined by charts but by the fundamental news, meaning not likely to be decided until the 3rd week of March when the Fed will decide how much to raise interest rates. Nonetheless and based on the close on Friday (near the low of the week), the bears have a slight edge given that if the weekly close support at 95.17 is broken, a drop down to at least 94.64 will occur. More importantly, the uptrend will effectively be over for at least a few months. The chart does not suggest that scenario happening. Instead, the probabilities favor the Dollar trading sideways for the next 4-5 weeks between 95.17 and 96.57 (based on a weekly closing basis).
BITCOIN bulls seem to have gained a very slight short-term edge given that it is presently trading at 41605 and if it closes tomorrow night above 40171, it will have broken a minor resistance level that would suggest the bottom is now set. Nonetheless and on a daily closing basis, there is resistance at 41518 and if it can close above that level tonight and again tomorrow, a slightly strong positive signal will be given. Either way, it is unlikely much action will occur here until Monday, meaning that Bitcoin will close near or on the high of the week and further upside will likely occur next week. Such action would suggest that a minimum rally up to 42790 would likely be seen and given that it would put Bitcoin 23% above the lows, it would suggest the recent downtrend is over. Pivotal daily close support is now found at 35103.
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Stock Analysis/Evaluation
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CHART Outlooks
I was planning on offering several buy mentions this week but with the action seen on Friday and the Jeremy Grantham interview about an imminent collapse of the index market, I decided to hold off on giving any mentions, at least until I see what happens on Monday. There is potential for a gap down opening in the NASDAQ on Monday. The probabilities do not favor it happening and if it doesn't, I will supply the buy mentions on the message board or via email as the outlook mentioned above will be viable. By the same token, if it does happen, I am also prepared to offer sell mentions.
There is no doubt that this market is now in a very precarious position where the bears now have the edge and the question is more about when a big drop is to come and not so much on "if" it will come. This market is now set up to be played chart-wise and both on a purchase basis as well as a sell-short basis. Nonetheless, nothing was defined clearly last week and therefore the traders are not yet ready to act until some chart catalyst is "triggered". I am waiting for the trigger before giving any mention. As far as the short-term, Monday is important because if the indexes don't gap down, there are magnets to the upside that will kick into place and those becoming short-term triggers for a rally. I do suggest that you visit the message board on Monday morning as I will know much more by early Monday morning than I do now. I do plan to trade this week and even perhaps profusely. I just don't have anything right now (Sunday) that I am comfortable in mentioning.
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Updates
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| Monthly & Yearly Portfolio Results
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Closed Trades, Open Positions and Stop Loss Changes
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Status of account for 2007: Profit of $9,758 per 100 shares after losses and commissions were subtracted.
Status of account for 2020: Loss of $16,684 per 100 shares after losses and commissions were subtracted. Status of account for 2020, as of 12/31 Profit of $0 using 100 shares per mention (after commissions & losses) Closed out profitable trades for January per 100 shares per mention (after commission)
QQQ (long) $68 QQQ (long) $815 QQQ (long) $1876 FSLR (long) $109 RBLX (long) $79 Closed positions with increase in equity above last months close minus commissions. NONE Total Profit for December, per 100 shares and after commissions $2947 Closed out losing trades for January per 100 shares of each mention (including commission)
QQQ (long) $133
QQQ (long) 5542 QQQ (long) $24 LNG (short) $143 RBLX (long) $272 Closed positions with decrease in equity below last months close plus commissions. CHUY (long) $774 Total Loss for December, per 100 shares, including commissions $1888 Open positions in profit per 100 shares per mention as of 1/31
ENG (long) $20
Open positions with increase in equity above last months close.
CALM (long) $201
BTZI (long) $8 Total $249 Open positions in loss per 100 shares per mention as of 1/31
FSLR (long) $360
DDD (long) $81 Open positions with decrease in equity below last months close.
AU (long) $1440 Total $8084 Status of trades for month of January per 100 shares on each mention after losses subtracted.
Loss of $6,776
Status of account/portfolio for 2022, as of 1/31
Loss of $6,776 per 100 shares.
AU generated a green weekly close, meaning that the previous week's close at 17.94 is now a successful retest of the 200-week MA, currently at 18.30. The stock closed slightly in the upper half of the weeks trading range, suggesting a higher likelihood of going above last week's high at 19.42 than below last week's low at 18.16. The fundamental scenario favors the bulls as inflation remains and until that starts coming down, buying interest will remain. By the same token, the stock remains below the 200-day MA, currently at 19.39, and until that line gets broken (and confirmed) to the upside, the stock is likely to idle without direction. During the past 59 days since the MA line got first broken to the upside, the stock has spent 70% of the time above the line and 30% below the line. Nonetheless and now that the 200-week MA (much more important) has been tested successfully, the action from here is now going to be not only indicative but likely longer lasting (no more straddling the 200-day MA). Pivotal intraweek support is found at 17.78 and pivotal intraweek resistance is found at 22.47. It is likely that the stock will trade within this range for the next 4-5 weeks (until the Fed raises interest rates in March). After that, a breakout or a breakdown is likely to occur. Probabilities favor the bulls.
BTZI made a new 6-week intraweek low and a new 9-week weekly closing low and closed in the lower half of the week's trading range, suggesting further downside below last week's low at .0335 will be seen this week. This mini break (by only $.02 cents below the previous 6-week weekly closing low) is a short-term statement but not likely one of note. With so much sideways action for the past few weeks but no catalytic news and now with the indexes under sell pressure, the bears won this "likely small" battle. By the same token, there is mostly open air below until the .02 level is reached. It is unlikely to be reached as there are clearly defined signs that a bottom has been formed, suggesting around the .031 level buying should be seen. Pivotal resistance remains at .057. Probabilities very slightly favor the bears this week. CALM was one of very few stocks that actually gained an edge this past week. The stock gained 4.5% in price (above last week's close) and when compared to the indexes that gained less than 2%, it can be said that the stock outperformed the market. The stock closed on the high of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 41.33 will be seen this week. That level is where a 3-point downtrend line is found, which if broken (and confirmed) for 2 weeks in a row, would mean the downtrend is over. Pivotal intraweek resistance is found at 42.40, which if broken would also be confirmation that the downtrend is over. The previous week's intraweek low at 38.25 is now pivotal support, meaning that the stop loss can now be raised to 38.15, which would lock in profits. Probabilities slightly favor the bulls. DDD went above the previous week's high and also generated a green weekly close and in the upper half of the week's trading range, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 18.69 will be seen this week. The action means that the 200-week MA, currently at 15.15, has now been tested successfully with the previous week's low at 15.33. Nonetheless and in spite of this positive action, the bulls need to do more before it can be said that a bottom to this recent downtrend has been found. A confirmed weekly close above 19.26 is needed to confirm a bottom has been made. By the same token, a confirmed break on the daily closing chart above 18.24 would increase the chances of the bottom having been found. Any daily close now below 16.03 would give the bears back full control and a close below the 200-week MA would now be strongly negative. The probabilities do favor the bulls this week for higher prices above last week's high but other than that, it is a flip of the coin. ENG had a mostly uneventful week, having been able to generate a green weekly close but without any resistance being broken and then closing slightly in the lower half of the week's trading range, suggesting a slightly higher chance of going below last week's low at .875 than above last week's high at 1.08. As such, everything remains the same as evaluated the previous week. Pivotal support is found at $.74 and pivotal resistance at 1.29. Like I said last week though, the probabilities are high that a bottom to this downtrend has been found and that some recovery is to come. FSLR had a big week in which the stock moved 15% from the high to the low of the week. The stock closed in the lower half of the week's trading range, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 67.39 will be seen this week. The stock has now generated 14 weeks in a row of red weekly closes and has lost 46% in value. Nonetheless, the stock has now gotten close to the 200-week MA, currently at 67.10 with last week's low at 67.39 and there is no fundamental reason at this time to believe that long term line will be broken. In fact, the stock was downgraded on Friday from an upside target price of $114 to a $91 objective and is what caused the stock to make the 17-month intraweek low. Nonetheless, buying interest came in on the low and the stock actually closed on the high of the day on Friday, suggesting the first course of action for the week will be to the upside and above Friday's high at 71.50. The stock did gap down on Wednesday from 75.90 to 74.21 and there is no reason for that gap to stay unclosed (unless the index market collapses this week). As such, upside action is expected to be seen at the beginning of the week. Pivotal resistance is found at last week's high at 79.40. Intraweek support is found at 59.52. Nonetheless, on a weekly closing basis, support is found at 67.15. Probabilities favor the bulls this week. IDCC generated a negative reversal week, having gone above the previous week's high and then closing red and in the lower half of the week's trading range, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 65.81 will be seen this week. It is clearly evident that the stock is at an important pivotal point with the 200-week MA being the yardstick. The MA is currently at 65.70 and if the previous week's low at 64.94 gets broken, the bears will gain the edge and that would be a valid reason to liquidate and take the loss. Last week's high at 69.25 is now short-term pivotal resistance. The chart suggests that something will happen this week. NEM generated an uneventful inside week but did close green, meaning that no sell signal was given after the previous week action put the stock at risk f generating one. The stock did close slightly in the lower half of the week's trading range, suggesting a slightly higher chance of going below last week's low at 59.84 than above last week's high at 62.66. It is evident that the traders are waiting to get more information about inflation and the Fed efforts to curtail it. By the same token and given that inflation is a problem and more likely to get worse than better in the short-term, the bulls do have an edge. Evidently, the previous week's low at 58.94 is short-term pivotal support while the recent high at 65.49 is pivotal resistance. Probabilities favor the stock trading "within" that range for the next 4-5 weeks. SNDL appreciated in price 14.5% this past week, It was a positive note among many weeks of negative notes but the reality is that the bulls did not accomplish anything tangible. The stock did close on the high of the week and further upside above .53 is expected to be seen. Any confirmed daily close above .562 would be a tangible gain as it would generate a failure signal against the bears. Any daily close below .431 would be a strong negative. Probabilities slightly favor the bulls. SRUTF did make a new all-time intraweek low this week but then only by .001 cent. Nonetheless, the new low was not confirmed by either the daily or weekly closing charts as the .023 level remained unbroken on those charts. Nonetheless, the bears remain with the edge and until something catalytically positive occurs, that is not going to change. The .023 level, on both the daily and weekly closing chart, remains support. On the intraweek chart, the .35 level is pivotal resistance. ZLAB in spite of having closed near the low of the week the previous week, the bulls were able to prevent further downside and did go above the previous week's high and closed green and in the upper half of the week's trading range, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 54.25 will be seen this week. Unfortunately for the bulls, no resistance levels were broken and with the stock now showing an open gap between 43.50 and 44.13, it seems probable that some weakness will be seen this week. Last week's low was 44.13 and if that is broken the gap will be closed. By the same token, if the previous week's low at 39.75 is not broken, it could end up being the required/needed retest of the low. If all of that occurs, new buying interest will appear. Nonetheless, probabilities actually favor further upside this week with either the $55 or $60 level as the upside objective and "then" a retest of the low and closure of the gap occurring.
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1) SNDL - Averaged long at .905 (2 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at .53. 2) DDD - Purchased at 18.71. No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 17.86. 3) SRUTF - Averaged long at .0738 (3 mentions). No stop loss at moment. Stock closed on Friday at .0241. 4) BTZI - Averaged long at .0935 (4 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at .036. 5) ZLAB - Averaged long at 125.95 (4 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 49.81. 6) AU - Averaged long at 26.106 (6 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 18.85. 7) NEM - Averaged long at 60.137 (4 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 59.86. 8) ENG - Purchased at .76. Averaged long at 3.378 (5 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at .957. 9) CALM - Purchased at 34.99. Stop loss at 33.65. Stock closed on Friday at 41.26. 10) IDCC - Averaged long at 69.475 (2 mentions). Stop loss now at 64.84. Stock closed on Friday at 66.50. 11) FSLR - Purchased at 71.40. Averaged long at 76.69 (2 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 71.00. 12) TRIP - Purchased at 25.67. Stop loss at 23.42. Stock closed on Friday at 27.05.
Previous Newsletters
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The opinions and commentaries by Mr. De Vito are not a recommendation to buy or sell, but rather
a charting guideline, based on his own knowledge and experience, regarding the stocks he is following or
that are brought to him by others. Mr. De Vito does not presently offer a track record of his trading experiences.
No inference of success and/or failure should be assumed. The
information enclosed above, regarding his background, length of trading, and experience, is correct
but is not meant to suggest, state, or infer any future success in trading, based on his opinions. The information herewith included should only be used by investors who are aware of the risk inherent in securities trading. Mr. De Vito accepts no liability whatsoever for any loss arising from any use of the information and/or comments he supplies. |
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