Issue #754
Feb 27, 2022
The Oasis

Newsletter


The newsletter with chart analysis for stocks and stock indexes

Stock Indexes Analysis/Evaluation


Traders Keying on the Russia/Ukraine Conflict. Market to move on that alone this week!

DOW Friday closing price - 34058
SPX Friday closing price - 4384
NASDAQ Friday closing price - 14189
RUT Friday closing price - 2040

With the exception of the DOW, all the indexes generated a positive reversal week, having made new multi-month intraweek lows and then closing green. All indexes closed on the highs of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's highs (DOW above 34095, SPX above 4385, NASDAQ above 14193, and RUT above 2040) are expected to be seen this week. The reversal came in spite of the news being negative (Russia invading Ukraine) and does suggest that it has some legs to it (further upside), for at least this week. When positive action to negative news occurs, it suggests that the negative news has already been factored into the prices. On the other side of the coin, the bulls did not actually accomplish anything tangible. No resistance levels were broken and no sell (or failure) signals were negated, meaning that it was more of a recovery rally than any new attempt to resume the uptrend.

On a potentially positive note for the bulls though, and using the intraweek low seen last week, the NASDAQ showed a drop of 22.1% from the highs (16764 - 13065) using last week's intraweek low. A drop of over 20% officially suggests that the trend has changed. Fortunately for the bulls, that 20% drop becomes official when it occurs on a closing basis (not on an intraweek basis) and therefore using the daily closing chart, the index has officially corrected 18.5% (16573 - 13509). It is possible though, that perhaps that fact could have been one of the reasons that the index(s) generated a positive reversal week, meaning that the traders may need more news before actually generating that a signal that a "change of trend has occurred". As it is, it was not expected that anything tangible would occur to the market until the March Fed rate decision. This past week's action supports that idea.

What does this likely mean? It likely means that the traders will trade between the new support level (last week's low) and the 200-day MA's above. The 200-day MA's were broken several weeks ago after going unbroken for many months and should now be considered decent to strong resistance until after the Fed rate decision is announced on March 16th (2.5 weeks from now). In the DOW that line is at 35033, in the SPX it is at 4460 and in the NASDAQ it is at 15081. Again, MA's lines are only valid on a closing basis, meaning the indexes could get above them intraweek but then fall back to close at the line.

To the downside and using the NASDAQ as the key index, the bulls cannot allow the index to get anywhere close to last week's low at 13065 as that would put the index are risk of generating an official change of trend. As such, the recent daily closing low at 13509 should now be supported with buying interest there if weakness is seen.

Given what happened this past week with Russia invading Ukraine but the indexes then rallying, it is suggestive that for now the invasion itself will no longer be catalytical to the indexes either way. Yes, it will generate short-term movement in one direction or the other depending on what is happening each and every day, but it is likely to be basically a non-event to the overall trend in the market. The Fed rate decision on March 16th is the next possibly catalytic event. For this coming week and using the NASDAQ as the index to watch, intraweek support should be found around 13724 and resistance should be found around 14500. With the index having closed on Friday at 14189, it does suggest that upside movement could be as much as 310 points and downside movement could be as much 465 points. As such, both red and green should be seen copiously.


GOLD made a new 13-month intraweek high at $1976 but then reversed to generate a red weekly close. In addition, the breakout above the pivotal intraweek resistance at $1922 was not confirmed on any of the closing charts, meaning that is was a false signal. By the same token, the breakout above the short-term pivotal daily close resistance at $1874 was not negated even though the bears attempted to do so with the low of the week being $1878 ($96 below the high of the week). This suggests that the major intraweek breakout was based on fear (Inflation roaring due to the Russian invasion) and not because of actual tangible news that inflation would be affected. Nonetheless, the close suggests that the bulls remain with the edge and short-term control. Gold did close near the low of the week and further downside below last week's low at $1878 is expected to be seen this week. On an intraweek basis, a drop down to as low as $1856 could be seen. To the upside, $1922 should be resistance this week. Evidently, the $1874 level (on a daily closing basis) is pivotal support this week. Charts to favor the bulls, meaning that if there are any surprises, it will likely be to the upside.

OIL did the same thing as Gold did, having rallied intraweek to 100.50 but then failing to confirm the breakout on the daily and weekly closing charts. In fact, Oil closed red on Friday at 91.59 and that means the 93.15 weekly close seen 3 weeks ago is now a confirmed retest of the established and pivotal weekly close resistance at 92.72. Oil closed near the low of the week and further downside below last week's low at 89.06 is expected to be seen this week. Daily close support is found at 89.06, which if broken would suggest a drop down to the next daily close support at 86.96. Nonetheless, the same scenario as with Gold is likely to be in place here, meaning that Oil is likely to trade sideways until March 16th between 89.06 and 93.66 (based on a daily closing basis).

DOLLAR made a new multi-month intraweek high but then failed to confirm the breakout on both the daily and weekly closing charts. In fact, Thursday's high daily close was 97.14, which was below the previous 20-month high daily close at 97.27, which was made in January, and then the Dollar closed at 96.61 on Friday, meaning that 18-month high now shows a successful retest of it. The weekly close on Friday at 96.61, was barely $.04 cents above a previous and not-very-important high weekly close at 96.57, meaning that the bulls were not able to accomplish anything of note. A red weekly close next Friday would be a decent negative. Pivotal daily close resistance is now found at 97.14.

BITCOIN generated a successful retest of the previous and somewhat minor daily close support at 36925 with a close on Tuesday at 37292, which was then followed by a new buy signal on Thursday. It Bitcoin can close tonight above last week's close at 39125 (currently at 39385), then also a successful retest of the 2 previous low weekly closes will occur. Nonetheless, Bitcoin is presently in a sideways trading range with a slight bias to the upside, which is likely to continue for several weeks (until the Fed rate decision on March 16th) before the traders make any longer term decision.


Stock Analysis/Evaluation
CHART Outlooks

I did not have time this weekend to research any new charts so I do not have any "new" mentions. Nonetheless and in doing the chart evaluations on Held Stock, there are two stocks (ENG and FSLR) that offer great opportunity to purchase for the first time or add to them. The action seen in these two stocks this week was indictive of a recovery of consequence having begun. See the chart evaluations below on these two stocks to see where support is now found and the upside objectives. In the case of ENG, there was also a fundamental change of consequence that does support higher prices in the future.

Updates
Updates on Held Stocks
Closed Trades, Open Positions and Stop Loss Changes

AU generated a negative reversal week, having made a new 9-month intraweek high but then closing red and in the lower half of the week's trading range, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 21.55 will be seen this week. Nonetheless and in looking at the weekly closing chart, this red close is not likely to be anything more than retest of the recent weekly close breakout at 20.98, before resuming the midterm uptrend that offers a 23.75 upside objective using the weekly closing chart. Pivotal daily close support is found at 21.11. A confirmed close below that level would be a negative. Probabilities favor the stock trading between 21.00 and 24.00 for the next 2.5 weeks.

BTZI generated a new 10-week intraweek low at .0202 but the bulls were able to keep above the short-term pivotal support at .02. The bulls were able to still close above the weekly close support at .0259, having closed at .0264 on Friday. Probabilities do favor a green weekly close next Friday but like with everything else, little is expected to happen until after the market makes overall decisions after the Fed rate decision on March 16th. The .03 and .04 levels on a daily closing basis are now resistance. A close above .04 would take the short term edge away from the bears.

CALM continues moving higher and has no daily or weekly close resistance until the 45.00-45.66 area is reached. For a short-term trader of the stock, consideration to taking profits at the level should be given, as a drop back down to the $42 level should occur before higher prices are made. Nonetheless, overall the longer term upside objective of this mention is the $50 level, meaning that there is still more profit available if a decision to keep the positions is made. Any confirmed daily close below 41.89 would now be a negative sign.

DDD made a new 4-week low but then turned around to close on the high of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 17.83 will be seen this week. If that does occur, it will mean last week's low at 15.38 will become a successful retest of the 15.33 low seen 5 weeks ago, as well as a 2nd successful retest of the 200-week MA, currently at 15.25. If all of that occurs and the bulls are able to break above the recent high at 19.63, the bulls will make a short-term statement that should carry to stock up to at least the $25 level. Pivotal support is now found at 15.33/15.38. Probabilities favor the bulls.

ENG bulls made a bit of a statement this past week, having rallied 39% from the previous week's close and closing 24% higher on Friday. A move of over 20% on a closing basis is a sign that the trend has changed. The bulls did try to accomplish more by closing on Friday above 1.28, which would have generated a failure signal against the bears but they fell short, having closed at 1.24. Nonetheless, the stock did close in the upper half of the week's trading range and further upside above last week's high at 1.39 is expected to be seen this week. There is no intraweek resistance until 1.55 is reached, meaning that another 20% rally could be seen. The 200-week MA is currently at 1.60 and any close above that level would be a major reason for a strong short-covering rally. This stock is famous for such rallies, having generated 5 of them in the last 12 years, least of which caused the stock to appreciate 260% in value. One other thing of consequence to mention. The stock was in a major and consistent downtrend for 11 years (from 2009 to 2020) when that downtrend was broken. The trend line of that downtrend is at the $1.00 level. The breakout seen this week, if confirmed with another close above $1.00 next week, will suggest that the breakout has now been tested successfully and if that occurs, it could generate the beginning on a longer-term uptrend that would target the high seen 13-months ago at 9.40. To finish it off and likely what got "the ball rolling" is that the company got some positive fundamental news this past week that will likely strongly increase its income starting in 2024. Here is the link to the news: https://finance.yahoo.com/news/eng-selected-epc-provider-sustainable-140000368.html. I do believe this week was a sign of positive things to come.

FSLR generated a positive reversal week of consequence, given that it comes at a point in the chart that further downside on a weekly closing basis, would have damaged the chart considerably. The stock made a new 17-month intraweek low but then closed green and on the high of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 70.73 will be seen this week. The green weekly close was the first in the last 16 weeks and given that the low weekly close during this period of time was the previous week close at 68.57, does suggest that the 200-week MA, currently at 67.03, has now been tested successfully. Minor but likely short-term pivotal daily close resistance is found at 72.10. A close above that level would open the door for much more, given that there is no intraweek resistance of any consequence until the 78.54 and a bit stronger at 81.67. Intraweek support should now be found at 67.39. Evidently, a break below last week's low at 61.24 would now be strongly negative. On an intraweek basis, there is an open gap at 75.90 that is likely to be targeted for closure this week.

NEM generated another green week and did close slightly in the upper half of the week's trading range, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 70.37 is more likely to be seen than below last week's low at 65.42. Nonetheless, the stock is at an intraweek area of resistance between 69.13 and 72.22 that will require a breakout in Gold in order to get above. Due to the fact that nothing of importance is likely to happen until March 16th (when the Fed announces the rate change), probabilities do favor a negative reversal week with a red weekly close on Friday. In fact, the stock is at a very decent daily close resistance area (between 68.14 and 69..20) and given the fact that it closed on Friday at 67.96, it could mean no closes above this area will happen this week. On a daily closing basis, support is found between 62.41 and 63.09. The chart suggests that for the next 2 weeks, the stock will trade between these levels. As such and as a trader, consideration can be given to taking short-term profits above 68.0 and repurchasing around 63.00.

PLNHF, on a daily or weekly closing basis, did not do anything of consequence this past week but on an intraweek basis, the stock did get down close to pivotal intraweek support at 2.35 with a drop down to 2.40. The stock closed near the high of the week and further upside above last week's high at 2.91 is expected to be seen this week. If that occurs, a successful retest of the 2.35 low will have occurred, giving the bulls some new ammunition. Nonetheless, for this building of a support base to be confirmed, the stock needs break above 3.39. If that occurs, a base will have been built and from which a rally up to the next intraweek level of resistance at 4.19 will likely be seen. Evidently, the 2.35 level of support is now pivotal and if broken, the positions should be liquidated.

SNDL generated another red weekly close but nothing was broken, meaning it was an uneventful week. The stock did close slightly in the upper half of the week's trading range, suggesting a higher probability of going above last week's high at .5598 than below last week's low at .46. If that does occur, a successful retest of the 15-month low at .40 will have occurred and new buying is likely to come in. Nonetheless, for all of that to be confirmed, the bulls need to get above the .6666 level in order to generate a recovery of consequence. The .40 level is now pivotal support.

SRUTF generated a green weekly close, meaning that the bears were unable to generate any further downside. The stock closed in the middle of the week's trading range, suggesting equal chance of going above last week's high at .0275 than below last week's low at .0198. This .02 area is important and so far it has held, suggesting that the bulls might be able to generate some further upside.

TRIP generated a red weekly close but nothing was broken, meaning that the stock is trading sideways for now. Nonetheless, the stock did close near the high of the week and further upside above last week's high at 27.86 is expected to be seen. If that does occur and a green weekly close occurs next Friday, the edge will slip back into the hands of the bulls, given that 3 successful retests of the multi-month low at 24.75 (made in in November) will have occurred. Pivotal weekly close resistance is found at 28.96 that if broken, would suggest the stock would target the next resistance level at 30.94.

ZLAB generated a negative week and a close slightly in the lower half of the week's trading range, suggesting a slightly higher chance of going below last week's low at 48.00 than above last week's high at 61.29. Nonetheless, this action was expected as the stock has been in a strong downtrend for the past 9 months and a retest of the recent low at 39.75 needed to be seen before any new buying of consequence occurred. This is especially true given that there is pivotal weekly close resistance at 60.53 and the stock closed last week at 59.33. The probabilities do favor a slightly lower low than last week but if that does not happen, it would not be unexpected as the stock has now gone below a previous week's low and any rally now above a previous week's high would generate the successful retest of the low that is needed. Keep in mind that under the present scenario of growth and of the Russian invasion, Chinese stocks are expected to outperform U.S. stocks and in this case of this stock (which has a strong fundamental picture to begin with), it would probably cause this stock to be one of the leaders to the upside. Any weekly close above 60.53 would be a tangible sign of short-term strength and recovery.


1) SNDL - Averaged long at .905 (2 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at .5113.

2) DDD - Purchased at 18.71. No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 17.44.

3) SRUTF - Averaged long at .0738 (3 mentions). No stop loss at moment. Stock closed on Friday at .023.

4) BTZI - Averaged long at .0935 (4 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at .0264.

5) ZLAB - Purchased at 48.40. Averaged long at 110.386 (5 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 54.06.

6) AU - Averaged long at 26.106 (6 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 21.84.

7) NEM - Averaged long at 60.137 (4 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 67.96.

8) ENG - Averaged long at 3.378 (5 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 1.24.

9) CALM - Purchased at 34.99. Stop loss at 33.65. Stock closed on Friday at 44.16.

10) IDCC - Liquidated at 64.82. Averaged long at 69.475. Loss on the trade of $916 per 100 shares (2 mentions).

11) FSLR - Purchased at 64.87. Averaged long at 71.5375 (4 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 70.68.

12) TRIP - Averaged long at 26.205 (2 mentions). Stop loss at 23.42. Stock closed on Friday at 26.39.

13) PLNHF - Purchased at 2.92. No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 2.75.


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Disclaimer

The opinions and commentaries by Mr. De Vito are not a recommendation to buy or sell, but rather a charting guideline, based on his own knowledge and experience, regarding the stocks he is following or that are brought to him by others. Mr. De Vito does not presently offer a track record of his trading experiences. No inference of success and/or failure should be assumed. The information enclosed above, regarding his background, length of trading, and experience, is correct but is not meant to suggest, state, or infer any future success in trading, based on his opinions.

The information herewith included should only be used by investors who are aware of the risk inherent in securities trading. Mr. De Vito accepts no liability whatsoever for any loss arising from any use of the information and/or comments he supplies.




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