Issue #752
Feb 13, 2022 | Newsletter
The newsletter with chart analysis for stocks and stock indexes |
Stock Indexes Analysis/Evaluation
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| Inherent Weakness Being Seen. Positive Economic and Earnings Reports Fail to Generate Desired Result.
DOW Friday closing price - 34738
With the exception of the RUT, the indexes all generated a negative reversal week that suggests the recovery is over. The inflation report coming higher and the worry about Russia invading Ukraine were the main reasons the indexes fell. The red weekly closes also were a decent negative to the charts as the previous week's closes were at what was considered minor weekly close resistance level that have now gotten stronger. In the DOW, the previous minor weekly close resistance is at 35061 and that means that the previous week's close at 35089 has now strengthened that resistance. In the SPX, the same thing happened with 4535 and the previous week at 4500 and in the NASDAQ 14791 and 14694. In the NASDAQ, the situation is worse than with the other indexes, given that 14791 was a previous low weekly close resistance and therefore, a confirmation that a downtrend is in place was given.
The bulls will be in a defensive posture this week as there are no economic or earnings reports that can be positively catalytic. The Russia/Ukraine situation could possibly be a positive catalyst (if Russia pulls back) but then again, the inflation scenario is not likely to change anytime soon and as such, a pullback by the Russians is likely to ameliorate the negative situation but not change it. Either way, the negatives of the charts have (at best) put the bulls in a balancing situation that is highly fragile. Let me explain. The red weekly closes that came from testing successfully minor resistance levels, do mean that a new multi-month low weekly close is likely to occur next week. Such a situation would not be a major negative unless the intraweek spike lows seen 4 weeks ago are broken as well. In the DOW, a break of the weekly close support at 34265 is expected to happen, which in turn would suggest the index could drop as low as the next and stronger weekly close support at 33290. The one thing the bulls cannot afford to let happen, is a break of the intraweek low made 4 weeks ago at 33150. In the SPX, a drop down to the weekly close support at 4256 is likely to be seen but a break of the intraweek low at 4222 would be a huge negative. In the NASDAQ, the downside target on a weekly closing basis is 14041 but an intraweek break of 13724 would be a huge negative as well.
To all of this and likely lessening the severity of what happened this week, is the fact that for the 2nd week in a row the RUT outperformed the other indexes. It closed green (not red as the others), meaning that money is not necessarily leaving the index market but "shifting" toward the small cap stocks, which is something that normally happens when a bull trend is "beginning to end". The fact that the RUT did this, suggests that the traders do not yet believe that the entire market is ready to "crash" but that the bull market is in its final stage and will drop in the near future, but not necessarily yet. Of course, the Russia/Ukraine situation is a catalyst that could change that in a negative way as the war that would likely ensue would affect the entire market, not just sections of it. It is my belief that Russia will not invade Ukraine and therefore the market will continue to act off of the charts (react to established support and resistance levels).
To the upside and in looking at what could negate this negative outlook, here are the levels of resistance that if broken, would give the bulls some new ammunition. In the DOW, a confirmed daily close above 35091 would relieve the sell pressure. In the SPX, a confirmed daily close above 4477 would do the same. In the NASDAQ, a confirmed daily close above 14501 would relieve "some" of the sell pressure. In the RUT, daily close above 2134 would suggest the threat of a crash in the market has been pushed back until at least the last week of March.
There really isn't much more that I can offer at this time. The bears have control right now with the only question being "how much can they actually accomplish this week?" Has a crash in the market begun, or pushed down the road to a possible future date? From solely a chart point of view, the downside objectives for the next few weeks are clearly defined with the DOW targeting at least the 33900 level, the SPX targeting 4300 and the NASDAQ 14000. Further downside from there would start to change the picture.
OIL had a big breakout week, having closed on Friday above the important resistance at 92.72 (closed at 93.93), which opens the door for a rally up to the $100 level. Like with Gold, this break of resistance occurred because of Biden's press conference, meaning that it could be negated this week if the conflict gets resolved. Oil was trading at 92.21 just before the press conference and that does mean that no breakout was being seen at the time. As such, it is difficult to use the action seen this past week to trade Oil, until the end of the following week where the breakout will either be confirmed or negated. As far as the charts alone are concerned, there is going to be quite a bit of weekly close resistance between 95.72 and 96.47. The resistance there is copious but minor in nature. To the downside, any daily close this week below 92.31 will begin to defuse the strength of the breakout and any daily close below 88.56 would now be a new sell signal. The situation between Russia and Ukraine particularly impacts oil more so than any other commodity, meaning that this week, that topic will be the main ingredient on what Oil does.
DOLLAR stopped the recent decline, having generated a green weekly close on Friday. Nonetheless and other than stopping the decline, the bulls did not accomplish anything of note as the 96.00 level is resistance on the daily chart and the Dollar closed at 96.03. Evidently, a higher interest rate scenario would be a positive to the Dollar, meaning that the bears did not have any ammunition of note. By the same token, the bulls did not show any ammunition either in the action seen this past week, meaning everything is still up in the air as far as the long term outlook. Short-term, the bulls have a very slight edge this week.
BITCOIN the bulls were able to generate a mini breakout on the daily closing chart on Tuesday, having closed above the daily close resistance at 43909 (closed at 44332) but then promptly failed to confirm the breakout when lower (below 43909) occurred on Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday. Using the weekly chart (Sunday night close), the bulls need to close convincingly above 42711 in order to make any kind of a positive statement but as of Saturday afternoon at 4:00 pm, Bitcoin is trading at 42661. It bears mentioning that the news this past week (higher inflation and potential attack of Russia on Ukraine, did not "move the needle" for Bitcoin in any direction. It has now traded for the past 7 trading days in this 4300 area without any clue as to what is going to happen next (up or down). Using the intraweek chart, support is found at 38677 and resistance at 45851. A break of either will be indicative. The chart does very slightly favor the bears.
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Stock Analysis/Evaluation
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CHART Outlooks
I was planning on being a short term buyer this coming week but the Russia/Ukraine situation is causing me to have some doubts. I am giving a couple of buy mentions this week but with the express statement that the probability ratings on these trades are low. The market is evidently keying on the fundamental picture this week and leaving the charts aside, at least until the Russia/Ukraine situation gets a bit more cleared up. Either way, in order for these mentions to be triggered, they do have to get down to the desired entry point first and that may not happen. On these mentions (if done), the risk will be small and the stop loss points will be "hard stops', meaning that only if something happens overnight can the losses be higher than shown. The probabilities do favor the bulls though, if the desired entry points are reached, meaning that the trades are doable.
In addition to the new buy mentions given, I am also mentioning adding additional shares in FSLR, which is one of the presently held stocks. In fact, this mention is even more preferable to the new ones mentioned. See the comment in the Held Stocks section.
BGNE Friday Closing Price - 202.26
BGNE made a new 20-month weekly closing low and did close on the low of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 198.00 will be seen this week. The stock did generate a couple of strong negatives, having convincingly confirmed the break of the 200-week MA, currently at 214.61, as well as having generated a failure signal, having closed on Friday below a previous high weekly close of consequence at 207.31. As such and based on the chart, the stock could be poised for a drop down to $154, which is the next established area of support.
Nonetheless, BGNE seems to be tied in to what the indexes do, especially given that the stock made an intraweek low at 194.50 4 weeks ago (the same kind of intraweek low made in the indexes) and that suggests that if the indexes don't break down, the stock may also not break down either. This is a wide-trading-range stock that can easily move 5%-10% percent in price from one day to the other and therefore, if entry points are chosen correctly and the support level does not break, profit of note can be seen in a short period of time (as I made this past week).
Evidently, a break in BGNE below the intraweek support at 194.50 happens, the bulls will lose most (if not all) of their buying power and the reality is that this stock did generate some decent negatives this week. In fact, if the intraweek support at 194.50 breaks, consideration can be given to short the stock with a $154 objective.
As far as the upside is concerned, if BGNE does not break the intraweek support, there are 3 very possible and doable upside objectives. The first one being the previous weekly closing high that was broken this past week at 207.31. On an intraweek basis and if support is not broken, a rally back up to the 200-week MA at 214.61 is highly possible and last but not least, the previous all-time high weekly close at 216.77, which lasted almost 2 years without being broken to the upside, would be the next doable objective.
One "small" positive that did occur on Friday is that using the 60-minute closing chart, BGNE now shows a double bottom 200.06/199.33. This does suggest that if the stock does open below 198.00 on Monday (or trades down below 198.00 at any time during the day but then bounces up above 200.30 for the hourly close, a sensitive hourly stop loss could then be placed at 199.15, which would lower the risk substantially.
Purchases of BGNE below 198.00 and using as stop loss at 194.25 and having a minimum objective of 207.31 will offer a 2-5-1 risk/reward ratio. The higher probability objective is 214.61 and in that case the risk/reward ratio would be 4.4-1. Then again, being able to buy the stock sufficiently below 198.00, would immediately make the risk/reward ratios more attractive. My rating on this trade is no better than 50-50.
QQQ Friday Closing Price - 347.06
Evidently QQQ is the stock that represents the NASDAQ and given that this is a pivotal week for the index, the stock would be the way to play it.
QQQ is likely to get down close to the 340.00 level but there is established intraweek support at 337.05 and pivotal at 334.15. On a daily closing basis, the support is found between 341.10 and 342.02. If that level of support hold up this week, there is mostly open air above to 363.05. All of this support and resistance levels being in place in a bear trend, meaning the bulls would not need to accomplish anything of note for the trade to be profitable.
On this trade, the desired entry point into QQQ will be around the 342.30 level (or below). The best stop loss would be at 334.05 but if a sensitive one is desired, it can bet at 336.65. The upside objective is 363.00, meaning that with an entry point at 342.30 and using the best stop loss at 334.05 and having a 363.00 objective, the risk/reward ratio would be 2.5-1. Using the sensitive stop loss, the risk/reward ratio is 3.3-1.
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Updates
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| Updates on Held Stocks |
Closed Trades, Open Positions and Stop Loss Changes |
| AU generated another green weekly close and closed on the high of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 20.91 will be seen this week. The stock now shows 2 confirmed successful retests of the 200-week MA, as well as a double low on the intraweek chart at 17.92/17.78, and now shows itself to be poised to perhaps breakout of the trading range (between 17.78 and 22.47) that it has been in for the past 19 weeks. In addition, the double low has now become strong and pivotal support from which the bulls can buy with confidence. A break above 22.47, will open the door to the next resistance level at 23.85. Probabilities favor the bulls. BTZI made a new 9-week weekly closing low but the bears failed to do the same on an intraweek basis, suggesting that the stock remains in the same sideways trading range between .03 and .05 that it has been on for the past 8 weeks. The trading range was built on Christmas week with the high and low being seen that week. Since then, neither the high nor the low has been broken. Until one of those two levels gets broken, the stock will continue without direction. CALM generated a breakout of some consequence given that the stock made a new 10-month intraweek high and a new 18-month weekly closing high, while at the same time breaking a 3-point downtrend line and closing convincingly above the 200-week MA, currently at 41.27 (closed at 42.58). The only thing the bulls were unable to do this past week is get above the 18-month intraweek high at 43.28, given that the high last week was 43.08. The stock did close near the high of the week and further upside above 43.08 is expected to be seen. Nonetheless, if that does not happen on Monday, the stock may move back down to the trendline and MA to test it (both around the 41.30 level). If that does occur, consideration can be given to adding positions at that price. A confirmed breakout of this level should offer a $50 objective, to be reached within a period of 3-6 months. On a daily closing basis, the 41.89 level is now short-term pivotal support. A close below that level will open the door for a failure signal to be given. Probabilities favor the bulls. DDD generated a 2nd green weekly close but the bulls were unable to make any kind of a statement as no resistance level was broken. The stock did close in the lower half of the week's trading range, suggesting a higher probability of going below last week's low at 17.63 than above last week's high at 19.68. the original purchase price of the stock was 18.71 and consideration can be given to getting out this week around that price if able to do so. The stock has not done anything yet to suggest it will not continue to recover so there are no pressing reasons to get out. Nonetheless and with the market looking to head lower and the possibility of a break down occurring there, the stock has not done enough to the upside yet to warrant confidence that it can go up while the indexes go down. On the other side of the coin, the stock did test the 200-week MA successfully 3 weeks ago and the probabilities do favor a bottom to the recent downtrend having been found. It is likely the stock will head down below last week's low this week and likely make the move into a required/needed retest of the low before beginning a more concentrated effort at a recovery rally. A drop back down to somewhere around 17.47 is expected to occur and if the most recent intraweek low at 16.80 is not broken, the bulls might get a new edge. ENG generated another green weekly close and made a new 16-day intraweek high but then the stock turned lower to close near the low of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at .932 is expected to be seen. With the stock having been in a steep downtrend for several months and breaking all kinds of support levels, it is clearly evident that a successful retest of the recent low at .75 is required before the bulls consider coming back on board. A drop below last week's low would be such a retest if the .75 level is not broken and the stock then goes above next week's high the following week. The stock reports earnings in 4 weeks and it is likely that during this time (until the report comes out) that the traders will be attempting to build a support base from which to begin a recovery. The upside target for the next few weeks is likely to be 1.33 (1.29 on a weekly closing basis). That level is pivotal short-term resistance that if broken would give the bulls back the edge. As such, I do expect the stock to get below .93 this week (probably down to .91) and then start some small recovery rally back up to the 1.33 level over the next 3-4 weeks. FSLR made yet another red weekly close (the 15th in a row) and did close on the low of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 68.56 will be seen this week. Nonetheless, no new intraweek low was made as the stock had an inside week. The stock did get down to the 200-week MA, currently at 67.10, the previous week with a low at 67.39. As such, last weeks red close is not all that meaningful. The stock reports earnings on February 24 and that is likely to be a pivotal report that should actually be a positive given the 45% drop in price that has been seen the past 4 months, which is not fully supported by the fundamentals. As such, this week the stock should go below last week's low at 68.56 with a drop down to at least 68.07. A new low below 67.39 is not out of the picture either, given that the MA line is at 67.10. Nonetheless and with the 91.00 level being the minimum upside objective in a recovery rally, the risk/reward ratio to the bulls buying here is at least 7-1 in their favor, meaning that the probabilities of further downside of consequence from here are small. This stock should definitely be considered for a purchase this week and using a 66.65 stop loss. IDCC generated another red weekly close (the 4th in a row and the 6 out of the last 7 weeks) but once again, no support level was broken and the stock remains above the 200-week MA, currently at 65.64 (closed on Friday at 66.26). The stock did close near the low of the week and further downside below last week's low at 65.52 is expected to be seen this week. It is clearly evident that the stock is at an important pivotal point with the 200-week MA being the yardstick. The MA is currently at 65.64 and if the low seen 4 weeks ago at 64.94 gets broken, the bears will gain the edge and that would be a valid reason to liquidate and take the loss. The high seen 3 weeks ago at 69.25 is now short-term pivotal resistance. The chart suggests that something will happen this week. NEM generated a new 25-week high weekly close and closed on the high of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 64.28 will be seen this week. Nonetheless, the intraweek high at 65.49 that was made 4 weeks ago was not broken, meaning that the bulls have to do a bit more to generate another breakout of note. If they do breakout, the objective would be the $68-$70 level. One thing that did happen over the past couple of weeks is that a new pivotal intraweek support level at 58.94 has now been built and confirmed, which in turn means that the traders now have a new level of support they can trust. In addition, the 200-day MA, currently at 60.70, has once again been confirmed as an area where buying interest is found, meaning that the probabilities now favor the bulls unless some negative fundamental news comes out. SNDL made a new 7-week high and did it in a spike high fashion. A failure signal against the bears was given when the stock closed above a previous pivotal low weekly close support at .564. The bulls came within $.007 of generating a new buy signal on both the daily and weekly closing chart, having closed at .6629 and the resistance being at .67. Nonetheless, the stock did close on the high of the week and further upside above last week's high at .6666 is expected to be seen and if that does happen and a close above .67 occurs, it will give the bulls new ammunition to stage further appreciation. If that occurs, a rally up to the 200-day MA, currently at .7316 will likely occur. Intraweek support of consequence will now be found at .525. Probabilities favor the bulls. SRUTF remains on "idle" but the bears remain in control. The daily and weekly closing support remains at .023 (closed on Friday at .024). On the intraweek chart, the .35 level is pivotal resistance. With both CRON and SNDL having generated indicative movement to the upside this past week, the probabilities do favor the bulls and some recovery starting. TRIP made a new 13-week intraweek high but the bulls were unable to yet confirm the breakout when on a weekly closing basis, the stock still closed below the short-term pivotal weekly close resistance at 28.96 (closed on Friday at 28.61). The stock did close in the upper half of the week's trading range and further upside above last week's high at 30.48 is expected to be seen. In using the intraweek chart, support is now found at 26.73, which does have a high chance of being seen this week. The chart is leaning in favor of the bulls but until that resistance area 29.15 on the daily closing chart) is broken, the bears will remain with the edge. Above 30.48, there is open air until 32.61 is reached. Stronger resistance will be found at the 200-day MA, currently at 34.40. Pivotal support is found at 24.36. ZLAB generated another green weekly close and a close in the upper half of the week's trading range, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 55.90 is likely to be seen this week. There is no intraweek resistance above until 63.95 is reached. The probabilities do favor the bulls getting up to that level at some point soon but the fact remains that the bears are still in control and will continue to be in control until either a successful retest of the 39.75 level occurs, or the 63.95 level is broken. It is difficult to evaluate the chart of "this" stock given that the fundamental picture is strong and the chart picture did not prove to be dependable on the way down (support levels were easily broken). This does suggest that if the stock is recovering, the same could occur to the upside, as far as a retest of the lows not happening and the resistance levels above being broken easily. For now though, it is highly probable that a rally up to the $60-$64 is to occur, so from that point of view, the bulls have the edge for now.
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1) SNDL - Averaged long at .905 (2 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at .663. 2) DDD - Purchased at 18.71. No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 18.45. 3) SRUTF - Averaged long at .0738 (3 mentions). No stop loss at moment. Stock closed on Friday at .0241. 4) BTZI - Averaged long at .0935 (4 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at .0359. 5) ZLAB - Averaged long at 125.95 (4 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 53.65. 6) AU - Averaged long at 26.106 (6 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 20.51. 7) NEM - Averaged long at 60.137 (4 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 63.86. 8) ENG - Averaged long at 3.378 (5 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at .96. 9) CALM - Purchased at 34.99. Stop loss at 33.65. Stock closed on Friday at 42.86. 10) IDCC - Averaged long at 69.475 (2 mentions). Stop loss now at 64.84. Stock closed on Friday at 66.27. 11) FSLR - Averaged long at 76.69 (2 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 69.31. 12) TRIP - Purchased at 25.67. Stop loss at 23.42. Stock closed on Friday at 28.61. 13) BGNE - Purchased at 207.37. Liquidated at 225.05. Profit on the trade of $1786 per 100 shares. 14) BGNE - Purchased at 208.07. Liquidated at 205.78. Loss on the trade of $229 per 100 shares.
Previous Newsletters
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The opinions and commentaries by Mr. De Vito are not a recommendation to buy or sell, but rather
a charting guideline, based on his own knowledge and experience, regarding the stocks he is following or
that are brought to him by others. Mr. De Vito does not presently offer a track record of his trading experiences.
No inference of success and/or failure should be assumed. The
information enclosed above, regarding his background, length of trading, and experience, is correct
but is not meant to suggest, state, or infer any future success in trading, based on his opinions. The information herewith included should only be used by investors who are aware of the risk inherent in securities trading. Mr. De Vito accepts no liability whatsoever for any loss arising from any use of the information and/or comments he supplies. |
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