Issue #755
Mar 06, 2022 | Newsletter
The newsletter with chart analysis for stocks and stock indexes |
Stock Indexes Analysis/Evaluation
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| Russia Invasion of Ukraine Helped the Bears Maintain and Edge!
DOW Friday closing price - 33614
All indexes generated a negative reversal week, having gone up above last week's highs and then closing red and near the lows of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's lows will be seen this week (DOW below 33107, SPX below 4279, NASDAQ below 13736, and RUT below 1985). Chart-wise, the action seen suggests that this move down could be (will be?) the required/necessary retest of the lows seen the previous week, which were multi-month lows.
The "timing" of this negative reversal and possible retest of the lows was a bit surprising given that the SPX and NASDAQ did not reach any resistance levels the previous week (and from which automatic selling interest would be seen) and therefore a bit more upside was expected before the retest was to begin. The likely reason for the surprise was the negative-to-world-economy action that is being seen due to the continuing invasion of the Ukraine by the Russians. It is a negative that does somewhat negate the chart parameters for potential rallies by the bulls. As such, this coming week will be defensive by nature with the big question likely being asked being "Is this war going to generate a world recession or not?".
The chart parameters are clearly defined with the lows seen the previous week all being pivotally catalytic in nature. In the DOW that low being 32272, in the SPX at 4114, in the NASDAQ at 13065, and in the RUT at 1894. The probabilities do not favor those lows being broken for 2 reasons: 1) the invasion has already been going on for 10 days and it is unlikely that further damage to the world economy will occur (above what is already expected) and 2) the Fed is due to announce the rate decision the following week and big decisions are not likely to be made before that announcement occurs. As such, this coming week is likely to be a chart-building week in which the traders set the chart parameters for either a rally occurring starting the following week or a breakdown and the official beginning of a downtrend.
It is unlikely that any kind of a meaningful rally will be seen this week unless some kind of resolution of the conflict is reached. On the negative side of the fundamental picture, if there is any further escalation by Russia that involves any other countries (other than Ukraine), the bears will gain full control. In essence, that is what is expected to be seen this week. There is a 60-40 possibility that a positive reversal week occurs with the indexes going below last week's lows and closing green but otherwise it should be a generally uneventful week with the bias at the beginning of the week being to the downside (unless the invasion has diminished in any way).
OIL generated a new 13-year weekly closing high, above the one made in 2011 at 113.93 (closed on Friday at 115.03). Oil closed on the high of the week and further upside above last week's high at 116.50 is expected to be seen this week. There is now open air above to the all-time weekly closing high at 140.23 (147.27 on an intraweek basis). The fundamental picture will remain strong until some positive resolution to the conflict with Ukraine is found. Even then, the resolution of the conflict would need to meet the approval of NATO (unlikely) in order for oil to back off in any meaningful way. Simply stated, the bulls are in full control at this time and not likely to lose any control in the short-term. The 113.93 level (on a weekly closing basis) is now support. Any weekly close below that level would likely cause some profit taking to occur. The 107.67 level (on a daily closing basis) is now pivotal support, which if broken would suggest the rally has found a top.
DOLLAR made a new 22-month intraweek and weekly closing high and closed on the high of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 98.92 will be seen this week. The Dollar is now close to the next and even more important and pivotal weekly close resistance level between 99.06 and 99.44, which represents a 2-year weekly closing high resistance. When that level was broken to the upside, it took the Dollar to test the all-time high at 103.11, and when broken to the downside thereafter, caused an immediate drop down to 92.50. The Dollar closed on Friday at 98.65. Weekly close support is now found at 97.27. This level of resistance is likely to hold up at this time.
BITCOIN surprisingly saw weakness this past week, having dropped 14.8% in value from the high of the week to the low seen yesterday. Surprising because Bitcoin is supposed to be a safe haven currency that is used to get around problems associated with currencies and economic misfortune. In addition, it was said that Russia was considering using Crypto currencies to get around the economic sanctions that were levied this past week. Nonetheless, the drop in price did not actually accomplish anything for the bears as no support levels were broken in the drop. On a daily closing basis, Bitcoin is presently in a general trading range between 39000 and 44500, meaning that whichever of those levels gets broken, would likely be indicative of trend. On the daily closing chart, there is a triple high now at 44342, 44559 and 44442 that is now a magnet for breakage. Bitcoin is presently (Saturday at 1:00pm) at 39465. Probabilities do favor the bulls this coming week.
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Stock Analysis/Evaluation
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CHART Outlooks
As I stated on Friday, I did a review of what is happening with this war, what are the prospects for it ending, and what industries will be positively affected the most and it is evident that Commodities and Oil will be the strongest beneficiaries. As such, the 3 mentions this week are all in those industries.
CVE Friday Closing Price - 16.06
CVE develops, produces and markets crude oil, natural gas liquids, and natural gas in Canada, the United States, and the Asia Pacific region. Since October of last year, the stock has already appreciated 223% and in the last 6 weeks alone, it has gone over 25%. On Friday, the stock made a new 77-month high weekly close and closed on the high of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 16.17 will be seen this week. The weekly close resistance that was found at 15.88 was decent, given that it held the stock for 8 months after repeated attempts to break that level to the upside. Having broken it, the area now becomes support and from which new buying interest can come in with a decent limitation of risk.
CVE shows an all-time high weekly close at 40.28, which was made back in 2011, and given that the all-time high in Oil is likely to be targeted now, further upside is expected to be seen for the stock from this level.
CVE now shows minor to decent intraweek support at 14.68 (15.06 on a daily closing basis) and therefore that level (10 points below) is where the stop loss will be at. To the upside, there is a fair amount of intraweek resistance between 16.82 and 17.23 which still needs to be broken before the bulls gain full short-term control. Nonetheless, the fact remains that the weekly close resistance that represents that intraweek resistance was broken on Friday, meaning that it should not prove to be difficult to break, especially with Oil likely to head substantially higher. Above that area, there is mostly open air to the $30 level, which will be the objective of this mention.
Purchases of CVE around Friday's closing price at 16.06 and using a stop loss at 14.58 and having a 30.00 objective will offer a 9-1 risk/reward ratio. My rating on the trade is a 3 (on a scale of 1-5 with 5 being the highest).
SCCO Friday closing Price - 76.60
SCCO is involved in the mining, milling, and flotation of copper ore. The stock has appreciated in value 16.4% over the past 7 weeks and has open air above for another $4-$7 in appreciation in price before finding any established resistance. In addition, the stock now shows a breakaway and runaway gap formation that has been confirmed, meaning that further and "immediate" appreciation in price is expected to be seen.
SCCO's all-time high is 83.29, which was made in May of last year. If that high is broken, the chart suggests (based on the action seen the last 4 years) that a likely upside target would be the $110 level, to be reached in a 14-week time frame once the all-time high is broken.
The big problem with trading SCCO at this time (this week) is that other than intraday support levels, there are no support levels close by on the daily or weekly chart other than at 67.80 (some $9 below Friday's closing price), meaning that intraday support level will need to be used so the risk/reward ratio is doable. Using intraday support levels lowers the probability number to no better that 60-40 or even 55-45. On the other side of the coin, the stock is on a "runaway freight train path" for at least another $4 to the upside, meaning that the intraday support levels are likely to hold up unless there is a fundamental negative change (unlikely at this time).
The initial objective of this trade will be the 79.49 level, which using a purchase price at Friday's closing price at 76.60 and using a stop loss at 75.68, will offer at least a 3-1 risk/reward ratio. After that level is reached, I will revisit the chart again and come up with a new game plan. For the longer term, the $111 objective is viable (if a new high is made) and by the time that happens, a more viable "and closer" support level will have been uncovered.
DVN Friday Closing Price - 59.57
DVN is and independent energy company that primarily engages in the exploration, development, and production of Oil, Natural Gas, and Natural Gas liquids in the U.S. The stock has appreciated in price 15.2% in the last 6 weeks. The stock closed on the high of the week last week and further upside above last week's high at 59.94 is expected to be seen. The stocks finds itself in an open air area where no resistance is found for another $6-$10 to the upside.
DVN's all-time high is 127.17 and though it is unlikely that level will be on this rally, it is not out of the question given that Oil could reach and surpass its all-time high. The chart does suggest that reaching the $76 level is a probability and therefore an additional appreciation in price of some 26% could be seen.
DVN has the same problem as SCCO, inasmuch as there is no close by support level on the daily or weekly chart that offers a good risk/reward ratio, meaning that an intraday support level needs to be used to make the trade doable. Such a stop loss reduces the probability rating of the trade. By the same token and like with SCCO, the stock is in a runaway freight train scenario and the stop loss should not be at risk of being triggered until the stock gets up the next resistance level of some consequence between $67-$70.
Purchases of DVN around Friday's closing price at 59.57 and using a stop loss at 58.22 and having a $67 objective, will offer a 5-1 risk/reward ratio.
I am also looking to re-enter the Gold market either by adding to the existing held stock AU or by re-entering NEM or GOLD. Unfortunately as of today, there are things that the bulls must accomplish first before any of these stocks can be bought and offer a risk/reward ratio that is doable.
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Updates
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| Monthly & Yearly Portfolio Results
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Closed Trades, Open Positions and Stop Loss Changes
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Status of account for 2007: Profit of $9,758 per 100 shares after losses and commissions were subtracted.
Status of account for 2020: Loss of $16,684 per 100 shares after losses and commissions were subtracted. Status of account for 2022, as of 1/31 Loss of $6,776 using 100 shares per mention (after commissions & losses) Closed out profitable trades for February per 100 shares per mention (after commission)
BGNE (long) $1786 ZLAB (long) $730
Closed positions with increase in equity above last months close minus commissions.
NEM (long) $2784 Total Profit for February, per 100 shares and after commissions $6,881 Closed out losing trades for February per 100 shares of each mention (including commission)
BGNE (long) $229
Closed positions with decrease in equity below last months close plus commissions. IDCC (long) $842 Total Loss for February, per 100 shares, including commissions $1,071 Open positions in profit per 100 shares per mention as of 2/28
FSLR (long) $2171
Open positions with increase in equity above last months close.
CALM (long) $527
AU (long) $1398 ENG (long) $210 SNDL (long) $8 ZLAB (long) $2012 Total $6,326 Open positions in loss per 100 shares per mention as of 2/28
TRIP (long) $153
Open positions with decrease in equity below last months close.
FSLR (long) $305 Total $466 Status of trades for month of February per 100 shares on each mention after losses subtracted.
Profit of $11,490
Status of account/portfolio for 2022, as of 2/28
Profit of $4,714 per 100 shares.
Starting this week, I will not be giving weekly updates on the penny stocks being held (BTZI, SNDL and SRUTF). These stocks are all "buy and hold" positions and the stocks have not been doing enough every week (a breakdown or a breakout) for me to continue to give weekly updates about. This is a situation that has now been going on for close to 3 months and therefore there has been nothing new to comment on every week. If and when these held stocks do something of note, I will immediately let you know. For now, there will be no weekly comments on them in the newsletter. AU appreciated 12.9% in value this week and did close near the high of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 25.40 will be seen this week. The minor to decent intraweek resistance at 23.85 was broken and now there are two intraweek resistance levels above left, at 25.75 (minor to perhaps decent) and at 26.77 (decent and mid-term pivotal). On a daily closing basis, there is short-term pivotal resistance at 25.73 and the nothing until midterm pivotal daily close resistance at 27.97. With Gold having generated an important break of resistance at $1914 and now facing a pivotal for the midterm daily close resistance at $1974, if that does occur, the stock is likely to follow. The 23.85 level of resistance on a daily closing basis, is now pivotal support. Probabilities favor the bulls. CALM generated a new 31-month high weekly close and closed on the high of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 45.26 will be seen this week. The objective of the mention at 45.43 is likely to be reached this week and consideration to taking profits should be done. Nonetheless, this stock is in the food business and with inflation continuing higher (and not likely to come down anytime soon), further upside is possible at this time. Pivotal daily close resistance is found at 46.45, which if broken would be a break of consequence that would likely generate a move up to the stronger and less likely-to-break resistance at $50. Support is now found at the $41 level, meaning that the decision to liquidate around 45.43 or not, will mean a possible 10% more appreciation in price versus a risk factor of also about 10%. ENG appreciated an additional 20% in price, having closed $.26 cents above the previous week's close at 1.24. The stock closed near the high of the week and further upside above last week's close at 1.60 is expected to be seen this week. The 200-week MA is currently at 1.61, meaning that a close above that level would officially state that the downtrend is over and that a recovery rally of some consequence has likely begun. The company continues to receive positive news and the fact that it is a clean energy producer, with Oil at such high prices, there is likely to be increased interest in buying the stock. This stock has a long history of generating big rallies that normally cause the stock to increase in value at least 250% or more. The fundamentals currently in place and the chart action being seen, does suggest that this could now be one of those rallies. The 200-day MA is currently at 2.06 and that could be an objective-to-be-reached within 1-3 weeks, if and when a weekly close above 1.61 occurs. FSLR reported earnings this week and they were worse than expected but after an initial drop of 16.7% occurred, the bulls were able to recover to where the loss from the high of the week was only 5.4%. As it is, the stock did generate a green weekly close, having closed above the previous week's close at 70.68 (closed at 71.85). The stock closed in the upper half of the week's trading range and further upside above last week's high at 76.94 is expected to be seen. In using the weekly chart, there is no resistance above until the $90 level is reached. It is important to note that on the daily chart, the stock now shows a successful retest of the multi-month low at 61.24 with last week's low at 63.05, meaning that a bottom to this downtrend is now likely made. Confirmation of such a bottom will occur if the stock does go above last week's high at 76.94. It is also important to note that with Oil now being at these very high prices, demand for clean energy sources (such as solar power) is now likely to increase, suggesting this move up is likely to be supported fundamentally. PLNHF generated an uneventful inside week but did generate a green weekly close and a close near the high of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 2.86 will be seen this week. The green weekly close does make the previous week's close at 2.75 into a successful retest of the multi-month low weekly close at 2.62, suggesting that a bottom to this downtrend might have been found. A weekly close above 3.09 would confirm such a bottom is in place. Using the daily chart, any daily close this week above 2.82 would give the bulls the short-term edge. Nonetheless, a daily close above 3.25 is needed for the bulls to gain short-term control. Any daily close below 2.58 would now be a decent negative. Probabilities favor the bulls. ZLAB generated a new 26-month weekly closing low and did close on the low of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 39.82 is expected to be seen. The stock broke an established weekly close support at 43.42, which was not expected to occur, especially since there was no negative news released this past week. There is "some" established support around the $40 level but it is minor in nature. The bears fell short by $.07 cents of breaking the intraweek support at 39.75 that was set on January 28th. If by any chance the bears fail to take the stock below 39.75 this week by more than a few points, the possibility of a double bottom being built will start to occur. According to the rating companies, there is no fundamental reason for the stock to be at this low price. There is some minor but short-term pivotal daily close resistance at the $50 demilitarized zone, meaning that if the stock closes above that level without making any new low of consequence, it would suggest the worse is over. Pivotal daily close resistance is found at at 59.33. On a very short-term basis and using the intraday 10-minute chart, a close above 42.10 will take some of the selling power away and a close above 43.42 would give the bulls some new ammunition. Nonetheless, this is the 10-minute chart, which is not dependable for more than 1-week (and often less).
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1) SNDL - Averaged long at .905 (2 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at .4985. 2) DDD - Liquidated at 14.80. Purchased at 18.71. Loss on the trade of $391 per 100 shares. 3) SRUTF - Averaged long at .0738 (3 mentions). No stop loss at moment. Stock closed on Friday at .022. 4) BTZI - Averaged long at .0935 (4 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at .025. 5) ZLAB - Averaged long at 125.8825 (4 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 40.50. 6) AU - Averaged long at 28.423 (3 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 25.07. 7) NEM - Liquidated at 68.13. Averaged long at 60.137. Profit on the trade of $3916 (4 mentions). 8) ENG - Averaged long at 3.378 (5 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 1.50. 9) CALM - Purchased at 34.99. No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 45.08. 10) FSLR - Purchased at 63.79. Averaged long at 69.99 (5 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 71.85. 11) TRIP - Liquidated at 23.41. Averaged long at 26.205. Loss on the trade of $559 per 100 shares (2 mentions). 12) PLNHF - Purchased at 2.92. No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 2.80. 13) ZLAB - Purchased at 48.40. Liquidated at 54.70. Profit on the trade of $630 per 100 shares. 14) AU - Averaged long at 23.79. Liquidated at 23.80. Profit on the trade of $3 per 100 shares (3 mentions).
Previous Newsletters
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The opinions and commentaries by Mr. De Vito are not a recommendation to buy or sell, but rather
a charting guideline, based on his own knowledge and experience, regarding the stocks he is following or
that are brought to him by others. Mr. De Vito does not presently offer a track record of his trading experiences.
No inference of success and/or failure should be assumed. The
information enclosed above, regarding his background, length of trading, and experience, is correct
but is not meant to suggest, state, or infer any future success in trading, based on his opinions. The information herewith included should only be used by investors who are aware of the risk inherent in securities trading. Mr. De Vito accepts no liability whatsoever for any loss arising from any use of the information and/or comments he supplies. |
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