Issue #773
Jul 17, 2022
The Oasis

Newsletter


The newsletter with chart analysis for stocks and stock indexes

Stock Indexes Analysis/Evaluation


Confusion Reigns. Outlook Clouded Awaiting News and Clarification of What it all Means!

DOW Friday closing price - 31288
SPX Friday closing price - 3863
NASDAQ Friday closing price - 11983
RUT Friday closing price - 1744

The indexes have traded sideways for the past 4 weeks (based on the weekly closes), with using the SPX as an example, the index has closed the past 4 weeks at 3911, 3825, 3899, and 3863. The sideways trend has occurred in spite of generally negative news to the market, suggesting the traders are looking for an excuse to buy and not an excuse to sell. This is further supported by the fact that 6 weeks ago, the index generated a trend change signal, having closed at 3674, which was 23% lower than the all-time high but that signal was negated the following week and not instituted again on the weekly closing chart. By the same token, there is general fundamental confusion in the market as the outlook for inflation, for the economy, for interest rate hikes, and for a recession occurring (or not) and to the severity of it, runs the gamut of extremes. With the fundamental picture totally "up in the air", the chart picture remains confusing as well. Simply stated, things are a "flip of a coin" scenario.

Having said that, the indexes have remained with a slight bearish bias as the recent and short-term pivotal resistance levels have remained unbroken for the past 4 weeks. Those levels are at (on a weekly closing basis): In the DOW at 31500, in the SPX at 3911, in the NASDAQ at 12105, and in the RUT at 1765. The indexes all closed on the highs of the week on Friday and further upside above last week's highs (DOW at 31225, SPX at 3855, NAZ at 11987 and RUT at 1744) are expected to be seen this week. As such, it is possible (perhaps even probable) that those resistance levels will be tested this week. If not broken, the bears will remain in control. If broken, the bears will lose control and the indexes will remain totally in the hands of the fundamental news.

Evidently the key issue right now that is likely to determine what the indexes are going to do is the Fed and their approach to battling inflation and the cost of doing so. The Fed reports the rate decision on Wednesday the 28th and this past week (due to inflation continuing to rise), it has been anticipated that the possibility of them raising interest rates by 100 points (more than the 75 points that were anticipated) began to circle the market. Raising of interest rates is always a negative to the economy (possibility of bringing in recessionary pressures) and much more so if it is more than is anticipated. As such, the traders are likely to remain uncertain about the market until that rate increase is resolved. This means that for the next 9.5 trading days, it will be all about probability assessment of the possibilities. It means that only the short-term outlook is at play for now.

As mentioned before on many occasions, there is a magnet to the downside on all indexes, in the form of the 200-week MA's (DOW at 29426, SPX at 3522 and NAZ at 10884). The charts strongly suggest those lines will be reached, unless there is a fundamental change in the outlook (lowering of inflation, recession fears abating, and economy improving). There are chart levels above that if broken, would suggest that fundamental picture has changed.

On the other side of the coin, the 200-day MA in the indexes (DOW at 34143, SPX at 4364 and NAZ at 14275) are equally important to the upside as the 200-week MA are important to the downside. Those levels are all magnets depending on the fundamental picture as it comes out during the next 3-4 weeks, which include the Fed Funds rate decision on July 28th, the next 3 weeks or earnings reports, and the Jobs and ISM Index reports at the beginning of August as well as the next inflation report on August 10th. During the next 4 weeks, both of those areas are magnets to be reached depending on the news and speculation involved.

The bulls have a tougher road to overcome than the bears have as there are 2-3 resistance and support levels above and below that need to be broken for the 200-day MA's or 200-week MA's to be reached. What makes it tougher to reach is that there is more upside needed to be achieved to reach the resistance levels above than to reach the levels of support levels below. The first level of resistance (on an intraweek basis) is in the DOW at 31885 and the second is at 33272. In the SPX, the first is at 3945, the second is at 4177 and the third is at 4307. In the NASDAQ, the first one is at 12179, the second one at 12820 and the third one at 13556. On the other side, the support levels below are at 30143 and at 29653, at 3721 and at 3636 and at 11828, at 11322, and at 11037 respectively.

All indexes have a short-term magnet in the form of unclosed gaps, both to the upside and the downside. In the DOW the upside gap is at 32267 and the downside gap is at 30680. In the SPX, the upside gap is at 4017 and the downside gap is at 3796, and in the NASDAQ, the upside gap is at 12265 and the downside gap is at 11801. The NASDAQ is going to be the key here as it normally is the leader of the indexes (both to the upside and downside) and is the index that is the closest to both gaps. The index closed on Friday at 11983 and the upside gap is only 282 point above and the downside gap is only 182 points below. It is highly likely one or the other will be closed this week. Whichever gets closed will give one side or the other the advantage until the following week when the Fed announces the rate decision. It really is as simple as that.

As you can see by all the levels in play given above, there is no clear picture (using the charts) of what is most likely to happen. By the same token, it is evident that the onus in on the shoulders of the bulls as the bears have been in control for most of the year. I did take a look at the monthly charts today to see if those charts could give a better picture. With the DOW and the SPX, the monthly charts were of no help but with the NAZ, there is an intra-month resistance level of some importance at 12439. If that level holds up, the chances of further downside and reaching the 200-week MA before the end of the month are going to favor the bears. Nonetheless, everything is mostly "up in the air" at this time with no one evidently having a good idea of what is to happen (and that includes the Fed themselves). It is a picture/scenario that I have not run up against in all the years that I have been doing charts.


GOLD made a new 51-week intraweek low and a new 66-week weekly closing low and closed near the low of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at $1695 will be seen this week. Gold broke a weekly close support level at $1711 (closed at $1706) which if not reversed next Friday will change the chart for months to come. It is unclear (and even perplexing) why Gold has dropped in price when inflation is growing. Back in the late 70's, Gold quadrupled in price during the inflation rise and yet it has dropped 18% during this run up in inflation. Some of it has to do with the Dollar rising in price, some of it has to do with cryptocurrencies being around now and some of it has to do with supply and demand issues but the question now is whether further downside can (will occur) or if the worst has been seen. As far as the Dollar is concerned, it has reached a level (around 108.00) that is a very decent resistance area (unlikely to be broken). As far as cryptocurrencies are concerned, they have lost a lot of support given that the pandemic has uncovered weaknesses that are unfixable and also likely to mean that its future is now limited in price. As far as supply and demand, it has been stated that supply is no longer growing and will now consistently be less. What all of this means is that it is unlikely that Gold will drop much further, especially considering that the $1700 level is an overall support area of consequence. On a negative note though, what has happened on the charts has likely meant that the upside is now limited for now and possibly for the long term. The $1828 level is now going to be a decent resistance and $1915 the most possible high reached under optimum conditions, meaning that Gold has lost a lot of its trading value. Intraweek support is now found at $1680, which if broken (unlikely) would be a major bear statement. With last week's low being $1695, the Dollar reaching a decent resistance, and inflation still rising, it seems that the worst is about over. A daily close above $1729 will suggest the downside is over and a close above $1735 will suggest a recovery rally has started. If all of that occurs, the objective would be the $1820 level, at which point all positions should be liquidated and investment capital used somewhere else.

OIL generated a new sell signal on the weekly closing chart, having closed below the 5-month low weekly close at 98.20 on Friday (closed at 97.59). Oil closed very slightly in the lower half of the week's trading range, suggesting a slightly higher probability of going below last week's low at 90.58 than going above last week's high at 105.04. By the same token and using the daily closing chart, Oil was able to successfully test a very important, decent, and pivotal daily closing support at 94.29, having closed at 94.44 on Tueday, followed by 3 green closes thereafter, suggesting that the first course of action for the week is likely to be to the upside. There is some minor intraweek resistance at 100.54 and then open air up to 105.24, though on a daily closing basis, some resistance is also found at 103.26. Short-term pivotal daily close resistance is found at 104.79 (105.24 on an intraweek basis). Intraweek support is now found at 95.28, which if broken would once again put the bulls on a defensive posture attempting to prevent a daily close below 94.29, which would be a game changer. Probabilities favor a trading range market between support and resistance being seen this week as the traders will likely await what the Fed is going to do the week after.

DOLLAR generated a new 20-year intraweek and weekly closing high but actually closed very slightly in the lower half of the week's trading range, suggesting a slightly higher chance of going below last week's low at 106.89 than above last week's high at 109.29. It is interesting to note that the close on Friday at 107.98 is exactly where a 3-month bounce high weekly close at 107.97 occurred back in 2004. In addition and between 1972 and 1981, the 107.29 level (on a monthly closing basis) became a brick wall for 9 years (monthly close is the following week), meaning that this $107-$108 level has to be considered a decent and dependable resistance area and from which a correction back down to the $104 area is likely to occur. It might mean that this high made would last about 3 months before a potential resumption of the uptrend might occur (or not, as seen in the 70's). If the Dollar does goes below last week's low, that possibility would become a probability. Such a move could affect all other products.

BITCOIN generated an uneventful inside week as well as probably and uneventful weekly close. Nonetheless, and using the daily closing chart, Bitcoin now shows 2 successful retests of the multi-month low daily close at 18979 with daily closes at 19230 and 19310, suggesting that a bottom support may have been built. Daily close resistance is found at 21620 and if that level is broken "indicatively", it could suggest a meaningful recovery has started. Bitcoin is presently trading at 21230 (Sunday 11:30 am). Probabilities are starting to move toward the bulls, especially if the Dollar has found a rally top.


Stock Analysis/Evaluation
CHART Outlooks

For the time being (the next couple of weeks) I am staying away from U.S. companies and keying on Chinese companies. As such, I have 1 new mention this week (see below).

VIPS is a Chinese company that operates the e-commerce website VIP.com, specializing in online discount sales. It is a stock that dropped 87.5% in value between March 2021 and March 2022 but over the past 4 months has built an already retested bottom at 5.75 and that generated a breakout from that bottom 5 weeks ago and since then has been in the process of testing that breakout in order to establish its validity. The chart suggests that this week is going to be pivotal and therefore the perfect time to speculate on the stock with limited risk and the best profit potential.

VIPS broke above the 200-day MA, currently at 9.42, on June 6th and has been able to stay above that line during the past 5 weeks. Nonetheless, that line has now been successfully tested 4 times on an intraweek basis but broken last week (on an intraweek basis) but not on a daily closing basis. In fact, the stock shows a spike-type reversal on Friday, having made a new 6-week intraweek low at 8.98 but rallying to close above the line to close at 9.61 and on the high of the day, suggesting further upside will be seen on Monday, above the high of the day at 9.61. If that occurs, Friday's low at 8.98 will become a decent intraweek support level, especially considering that prior to the breakout on June 6, the low made immediately prior to the breakout was 9.05. In addition, the initial breakout was at 8.64 (on a daily closing basis). This all suggests that the stock is ready to do "something" and that something is likely to be to the upside.

To the upside and on a weekly closing basis, VIPS shows resistance at 11.11 but that level is the most recent weekly closing high and given that the breakout has likely been tested successfully, that level should be easily broken. Above that, there is quite a bit of weekly close resistance between 12.72 and 12.91 that is going to be difficult to break without some new positive fundamental news coming out. By the same token, the 200-week MA is currently at 14.34 and on an intraweek basis, that line will be a magnet. That level is the mention's objective. In fact and on an intraweek basis, there is no resistance above the recent high at 11.56 until 15.03 is reached. The resistance there is not considered more than a minor short-midterm resistance. In fact, the first true decent intraweek resistance is not found until 19.14, meaning that the possibility does exist of getting up to that level based on the history of the stock.

As such, it is evident that the area between 8.64 and 8.98 is now a decent support area (based on the recent action) and unlikely to be broken unless there is some negative news coming out. With Chinese stocks likely to be the beneficiaries of the confusion seen in the U.S. market, this stock has a very good possibility of being a winner.

Purchases of VIPS at Friday's closing price at 9.61 (or lower) and using a stop loss at 8.60 and having a 15.03 objective, the risk/reward ratio is 5.4-1. My rating on the trade is a 3.75 (on a scale of 1-5 with 5 being the highest).

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Updates
Updates on Held Stocks
Closed Trades, Open Positions and Stop Loss Changes
AAPL made a new 10-week weekly closing high and closed near the high of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 150.86 will be seen this week. There is pivotal intraweek resistance at 151.74. If this break of resistance is confirmed next week (does not become a double top at 149.64/150.17), it will mean the correction is over and that the stock has begun a recovery rally. By the same token and using the daily closing chart, there was no break of resistance as the previous high daily close was at 150.27 and Friday's close was 150.17, meaning that the bulls need to generate a green daily close on Monday to support what happened on the weekly chart. If this is all bullishly confirmed, there is open air above to 157.26/158.33, where there is intraweek resistance (former) and the 200-day MA (latter). Minor support is found at 144.46 and pivotal at 142.16. Probabilities do favor the bulls but like with everything else, the general confusion in the market has made charts less reliable.

AU made a new 38-month weekly closing low and a new 28-month intraweek low and closed near the low of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 13.47 is expected to be seen. This action has damaged the chart given that all the gains for the past 3+ years have been totally erased. It has damaged the chart to the point that the uptrend is now officially over and only technical trading bounces are likely to occur. With Gold being at an important support level, it does suggest that the probabilities favor the bulls this week for a green weekly close next Friday and some form of a recovery rally occurring. Nonetheless and without some very positive fundamental changes (such as inflation continuing to move higher but the Fed not fighting it with strength), the $20 level has now become a brick wall. Even then, a rally back up to the $20 level (if it is to happen) would likely take all of the next 3 months to achieve, meaning that consideration needs to be given to whether keeping the stock for that kind of a recovery rally would give enough profits (or lessening of losses) to overcome having the money work elsewhere. There is intraweek support at 12.66 that is considered pivotal to the potential for a recovery. If that level is broken, the chart picture becomes total gloom. It is important to note that the stock has now seen 6 red weekly closes in a row and that has not occurred since 2014 when there was "no inflation", strongly suggesting that the worse is probably over given that inflation is a plus for Gold and inflation is not likely to come down for months (if not years). In addition, it is probable that the Dollar has topped out as well and that has been a negative to Gold. Pivotal resistance is at 15.33. If that level is broken, further upside is likely to be seen. Probabilities favor the bulls this week.

CAT generated another new 18-month intraweek and weekly closing low but on this occasion the stock closed slightly in the lower half of the week's trading range, suggesting a slightly higher possibility of going below last week's low at 167.08 than above last week's high at 179.77. This action does suggest that the stock is either very close to the bottom or that a bottom has been found, with the answer coming based on whether last week's high or low are broken. With the 200-week MA being currently at 165.72, the potential bottom, if the stock heads lower this week, is clearly defined. On the other side of the coin though, a rally above last week's high would not define the end of the downside given that the pivotal resistance is now at 182.50. It is interesting to note that the stock itself has shown more weakness than the stock indexes themselves and that suggests that even if a rally in the indexes occur, the stock might not follow them. Either way though, the risk/reward ratio is not positive enough to try to squeeze the additional downside that could be seen, meaning that consideration to taking profits should be given, if and when any strength is seen.

ENG made a new 4-week intraweek high and closed on the high of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 120 will be seen this week. The stock is showing a bullish flag formation with the flagpole being the 9-day rally from .94 to 1.20 and the flag being the action seen the past 4 days down to 1.10. A break of the top of the flag will offer a rally up to 1.36 (over the next 2 weeks). On a weekly closing basis, there is pivotal resistance at 1.22, which if broken would suggest a retest of the 200-week MA, currently at 1.61, would occur over the next 3 months. Using the daily closing chart, daily close resistance is not found until the 1.36 level is reached. A break of that level would suggest a rally up to the 200-day MA, currently at 1.48, will occur. The chart is now definitely leaning to the bull side but not in a big way, meaning the stock is likely to trade between 1.10 and 1.60 for the next 3 months. After that, things could get very interesting.

IDCC generated an uneventful inside week. The stock closed red on the weekly chart but did close in the upper half of the week's trading range, suggesting last week's high at 62.93 will be broken this week. Pivotal intraweek resistance is found at 63.53 and pivotal support at 59.13. The overall chart picture to the downside has changed with a drop down to the 200-week MA at 47.91 no longer being a probability and perhaps not even a possibility. Overall, the chart looks like nothing of consequence is to occur, meaning that taking profits and investing them somewhere else is what makes sense. Staying with the stock is not presently offering as much as can be found elsewhere. The 6% profit that is currently being experienced should be enough to consider liquidating the positions on Monday if Friday's closing price can be achieved.

LI, using the weekly closing chart, generated a pause week, having closed red but not breaking anything. Nonetheless, the stock closed hear the high of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 38.85 will be seen this week and if that happens, last week's low at 36.20 will become the needed/required retest of the intraweek breakout at the $36-$37 level. For the 7 previous weeks, the previous week's low had not been broken. In other to continue higher, a new support level needed to be built and the 36.20 level will become that if last week's highs are broken. On an intraweek basis, there is resistance at 40.70 and at 41.49 and the latter is the all-time high which if broken would offer an objective of at least the $50 level. Pivotal support is now found at 36.20. Probabilities favor the bulls.

NEM made a new 8-month intraweek and weekly closing low and closed in the lower half of the week's trading range, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 53.92 will be seen this week. Nonetheless, there is copious intraweek support between 53.02 and 53.54 that goes all the way back to September of last year and that stood up for a total of 3 months as well as further support at 52.33 that goes back 2 years and with a total of 5 successful retest of that area, meaning that it is dependable support. This is especially true given that Gold also has that kind of support around the $1700 area. Nonetheless and like with Gold as well as with the other held stock (AU), there has been a lot of damage done to the chart that puts a limit to the upside unless the fundamental picture changes. As of right now, the $60 level is resistance (likely to be reached) and with a max of $65 (with a possibility of being reached). This means that this stock now has a cap on what can be accomplish and that reduces the interest in trading it. Getting back to the $60 area is likely to occur within the next 2-4 weeks but thereafter, the stock is likely to trade back down to retest support once more. This trading range seems to be quite dependable.

PLNHF generated a second green weekly close and that has not occurred for the past 4 months and is a sign that the probabilities of a bottom having been made are now decent. The stock closed near the high of the week and further upside above last week's high at 1.35 is expected to be seen this week. There is some intraweek resistance at 1.36 but if broken, there is mostly open air to the 1.69-1.80 level. On the daily closing chart, the stock did generate a buy signal when it closed above 1.23 and on that chart, there is no daily close resistance until 1.46 is reached. Probabilities do favor the stock trading between 1.22 and 1.50 for the next couple of weeks.

PRTS followed through to the upside with another green weekly close that does strengthen the already established intraweek support between 6.76/6.81. The stock closed slightly in the upper half of the week's trading range, suggesting a slightly higher probability of going above last week's high at 8.11 than going below last week's low at 7.23. The stock has continued to build a solid support area from which to launch further upside with a clear target of $10, to be reached within 10 weeks of the breakout (a rally above 8.54). Probabilities favor the bulls this week but a close above the 200-week MA, currently at 7.89, is required to get the "ball rolling forward".

VNET made a new 8-week intraweek low but the bulls were able to rally the stock enough to close slightly in the upper half of the week's trading range, suggesting a slightly higher chance of going above last week's high at 5.56 than below last week's low at 4.61. If the bulls are able to do that, a second successful retest of the island gap formation will have occurred and that should give new ammunition to the bulls. The action the past 3 weeks has been frustrating to the bulls given that the stock was ready for a breakout out 3 weeks ago and instead a dangerous fall back occurred that put the bullish formation at risk of being destroyed last week. The bears failed and that gives the bulls one more chance to make a bullish statement, which does have the probabilities in favor of it happening due to the multiple highs around the $7 level. A rally above last week's highs is needed this week to bring that bullish sentiment back. Probabilities continue to favor the bulls.

ZLAB generated a positive reversal week, having gone below the previous week's low and then closing green and near the high of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 39.74 will be seen this week. If that occurs, last week's low at 35.06 will become the required/needed retest of the multi-year low at 22.50. If the previous week's high at 42.74 is broken, a new buy signal will be given and will offer a short-term upside objective of reaching the $50 level. For the first time in the last 10 months, the chart is looking positive (in favor of the bulls). With Chinese stocks likely to be getting a lot of the buying interest (at this time), as well as the recent bullish action (not dropping down to the $26 level as the charts suggested it could), it does suggest that the stock is ready to move up to the $50 (and quite possibly $60) level before any new selling interest comes in.


1) SNDL - Averaged long at .905 (2 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at .3193.

2) PRTS - Averaged long at 7.29 (2 mentions). Stop loss now at 5.65. Stock closed on Friday at 7.77.

3) SRUTF - Averaged long at .0738 (3 mentions). No stop loss at moment. Stock closed on Friday at .0115.

4) BTZI - Averaged long at .0935 (4 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at .004.

5) ZLAB - Averaged long at 71.955 (6 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 39.00.

6) AU - Averaged long at 26.184 (4 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 13.74.

7) NEM - Averaged long at 72.133 (3 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 54.73.

8) ENG - Averaged long at 3.378 (5 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 1.20.

9) VNET - Averaged long at 5.32 (2 mentions). No stop loss now at 4.98. Stock closed on Friday at 6.01.

10) AAPL - Shorted at 150.38. No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 150.17

11) IDCC - Shorted at 65.89. Stop loss at 67.35. Stock closed on Friday at 61.85.

12) CAT - Shorted at 229.67. Stop loss now at 193.35. Stock closed on Friday at 173.38.

13) LI - Purchased at 36.53. Stop loss now at 36.05. Stock closed on Friday at 38.45.

14) SHOP - Purchased at 29.91 and at 30.43. Averaged long at 30.17. Stop loss at 28.01. Stock closed on Friday at 31.27.

15) CAT - Shorted at 182.50. Covered shorts at 176.85. Profit on the trade of $565 per 100 shares.

16) CAT - Shorted at 180.33. Covered shorts at 179.80. Profit on the trade of $53 per 100 shares.

17) NEM - Purchased at 59.52. Liquidated at 58.00. Loss on the trade of $152 per 100 shares.


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Disclaimer

The opinions and commentaries by Mr. De Vito are not a recommendation to buy or sell, but rather a charting guideline, based on his own knowledge and experience, regarding the stocks he is following or that are brought to him by others. Mr. De Vito does not presently offer a track record of his trading experiences. No inference of success and/or failure should be assumed. The information enclosed above, regarding his background, length of trading, and experience, is correct but is not meant to suggest, state, or infer any future success in trading, based on his opinions.

The information herewith included should only be used by investors who are aware of the risk inherent in securities trading. Mr. De Vito accepts no liability whatsoever for any loss arising from any use of the information and/or comments he supplies.




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