Issue #768
Jun 5, 2022
The Oasis

Newsletter


The newsletter with chart analysis for stocks and stock indexes

Stock Indexes Analysis/Evaluation


Bulls unable to follow through on the edge achieved last week. Bad Omen.

DOW Friday closing price - 32899
SPX Friday closing price - 4108
NASDAQ Friday closing price - 12548
RUT Friday closing price - 1883

The bulls were unable to capitalize on what happened the previous week as there was no follow through on a weekly closing basis. It was clearly expected that further upside would be seen this week as there was no established resistance levels close by that would prevent another green weekly close. Nonetheless, all indexes generated a negative reversal week, having gone above the previous week's highs but then closing red. With the exception of the RUT, all closed in the lower half of the week's trading range, suggesting that further downside below last week's lows (DOW at 32509, SPX at 4073, and NAZ at 12447) will be seen this week. The RUT actually closed near the high of the week, meaning it outperformed the other indexes and that does suggest that the money is changing sides, which is a negative overall.

The failure of the bulls belies the fact that this market is now in a downtrend as rallies are being sold and sold before established resistance levels are reached, which suggests more bearishness than expected.

This coming week has one important report (CPI) that unfortunately does not come out until Friday, meaning that the traders are not going to have any tangible news to trade off of until then. The CPI report is about inflation and it is presently expected to come out at .7%, meaning a yearly inflation rate of about 8%. The report could be pivotal as inflation is the major concern at this time. The FOMC rate decision does not come out until the following Wednesday and it definitely is important but it is unlikely to be more (or less) than what is already expected/factored in (50 point rate increase). As such, traders are likely to begin making decisions this week and not wait for the following week to do anything. Evidently, a lower rate of inflation than expected number will help the market while a higher one will hurt the market. That means that by the end of Friday the traders may have the necessary amount of information to be able to evaluate what the indexes are likely to do for the following 4 weeks and take positions with a fair amount of confidence that it will occur. The probabilities do favor the bears on these reports given that the onus to "disprove" the negative outlook that has been in effect for the past 6 weeks falls on the shoulders of the bulls.

Based on the action seen this past week, the following downside levels are objectives for this week. Reaching these levels is not indicative but simply chart-trading based. In the DOW, support is at 32272 and at 32130, in the SPX, support is at 4088 and then more important at 3930 and in the NASDAQ, support is at 11945. All of the latter ones are based on daily closes. In the NASDAQ, there is an open gap between 12337 and 12405 that is a magnet for this week and highly likely to be closed.

Nonetheless, the end result of the week is not likely to be determined until Friday's close (after the CPI number is out). The following weekly closing levels are pivotal (for both sides), meaning that a close above or below these levels will likely be decisive for the short term. In the DOW and to the downside, it is 32161 and to the upside it is 33212, in the SPX it is 3901 and 4304, and in the NASDAQ it is 11835 and 12681.

The probabilities do favor the bears but it is not a large advantage as the indexes closed on Friday nearer to the resistance levels than the support levels. As such, it is not going to be as difficult for the bulls to generate a rally above resistance (if the reports are better than expected) than for the bears to generate a break below support (if the reports are worse than expected). Then again and on a fundamental basis, the bears do have an edge. It is a week where the fundamentals news is more important that the charts. During the week and before the reports come out, the charts have the edge, and as such, it is likely that the beginning of the week will give the bears the edge.


GOLD generated an outside week (higher highs and lower lows than the previous week) and closed in the middle of the week's trading range, suggesting that the action this coming week (above or below last week's trading range at $1830-$1878) is likely to be indicative and short term decisive. As such, it is all about the inflation report on Friday. A break above $1878 will give a $1922 objective and a break of $1830 will give an $1800 objective but more importantly, will give one side or the other the clear edge for the next 4 weeks.

OIL generated a new 12-week intraweek high and a new 14-year weekly closing high and closed on the high of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 120.46 will be seen this week. It has been stated by analysts in the Oil market that at "this time", $125 is a minimum objective and that $140 is possible. On the May 8th newsletter, I stated that the chart formation in place (if the pattern was broken to the upside) offered a $134 objective and given that occurred, it does still suggest that $134 is the upside objective at this time. On a weekly closing basis, the 115.68 level is now support. On a daily closing basis, support is at 114.67. Probabilities favor the bulls.

DOLLAR generated a positive reversal week, having made a new 5-week intraweek low but then closing green and in the upper half of the week's trading range, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 102.73 will be seen this week. The positive reversal week suggests the Dollar is going to test the previous multi-year high weekly close at 102.82 to see if it holds up and a stronger correction begins or whether a negation of the failure signal occurs and the uptrend resumes. All of this likely to be cleared up after the June 15th FOMC rate decision. As such and until then, this is all chart building being done.

BITCOIN once again and for the 4th week in a row, the bulls find themselves in a survival situation where they are over an abyss but have not yet gained momentum downward. For these 4 weeks, Bitcoin has been trading under support as the traders await news before making any "further" movement. Evidently this coming week (and possibly the next) is the time frame for something to happen. Minor but likely short-term pivotal intraweek resistance is found at 32336 (31792 on a daily closing basis). More importantly though, is the weekly close resistance at 31556. To the downside, a daily close below 28609 would likely generate a drop down to 26600 and a break below the 26600 level is totally void of any support until the 19817 level is reached. Probabilities favor the bears.


Stock Analysis/Evaluation
CHART Outlooks

As I stated on the message board, right now all rallies should be used as opportunities to short high priced stocks. Those stocks that participated in a big way to the 13-year uptrend. There are more good opportunities in shorting those stocks than trying to find depressed small cap stocks that could rally. Those are available to be found but offer less profit potential "at this time" than shorting high priced stocks.

I did short AAPL this week and 1 other stock. I have 2 stock mentions this week to short. Both fit the requirments mentioned above.

CAT Friday Closing Price - 222.90

CAT is a stock that tripled in price (from 87.50 to 246.69)over a period of 14 months (Mar 2020 to May 2021) and then dropped 23.46% in value (based on weekly closes), meaning that a trend change signal was given in February. The trend change signal was negated the following week but the bulls have not been able to generate any signal that would suggest the uptrend has re-started, meaning that the bears have the edge. With the stock having rallied back up to the $223 level and pivotal weekly close resistance being found up at $229, this rally offers a perfect opportunity to short the stock with a high probility rating and a great risk/reward ratio that is clearly defined and small (compared to the profit potential) risk.

CAT closed near the high of the week on Friday and further upside above last week's high at 224.10 is expected to be seen this week. Intraweek resistance is found at 230.43 and pivotal (and trend changing) resistance is found at 237.90, meaning that a desired entry point (around $230) is clearly defined and the pivotal resistance (at 237.90) is clearly defined as well.

The 200-week MA, currently at 164.30 is a clear downside objective given that the line is also a clear and likely-to-be-reached objective for the indexes. as such, the risk/reward ratio on this trade is over 7-1 and those kinds of risk/reward ratios that actually have the probability rating in their favor are difficult to find and impossible to not get involved with........no matter the end result.

The desired entry point into this trade is somewhere between 227.00 and 230.00. The stop loss point is clearly defined at 238.35 and the downside objective is the 200-week MA at 164.30. The risk/reward ratio is at least 5.5-1 (if $227 is the entry point) to a high of 7-1 (if $230 is the entry point). It does need to be mentioned that this downside objective is still within the parameters of a long term (yearly) uptrend. If some of the doom and gloom scenarios that have been mentioned recently and that has a fair degree of possibility of occurring do happen, the potential downside could be as low as $100. My rating on this trade is a 4.25 (on a scale of 1-5 with 5 being the highest).

FIX Friday Closing Price - 91.30

For those of you that want an overvalued and high priced stock but one that is trading at a lower and more doable price.

FIX is a stock in the air conditioning industry that is overbought and not likely to flourish under the present economic conditions. The stock rallied from 30.61 to 101.80 from May 2020 to November 2021 but did drop 19% in value during the down move seen this year. the stock has now recouped approximately 15% of that drop but finds itself close to a pivotal resistance area on the weekly closing chart (between 94.56 and 92.33) that the bulls tried to attack the last 2 weeks but have failed. The stock closed at 91.60 2 weeks ago but generated a negative reversal week this past week and closed red, meaning that the first of the two resistance levels (the one at 92.33) has been tested successfully.

Nonetheless, FIX closed in the upper half of the week's trading range on Friday, suggesting that further upside (on an intraweek basis) above last week's high at 92.46 will be seen this week. Such a rally will offer a good entry point into the trade that will generated a good risk/reward ratio trade and a decent entry point.

On an intraweek basis, FIX shows resistance at 93.63 and at 94.85. Neither of them should be broken if the trade is to be successful, especially the latter one as that would likely mean that both weekly close resistance levels could be broken next Friday.

To the downside, FIX has a potential downside objective the same as the indexes and CAT (shown above), which is the 200-week MA, currently at 60.20. This means that the risk/reward ratio could be as much as 10-1.

FIX does have established intraweek support between 80.00 and 80.65, so even if that is the objective, it still is a trade that offers a risk/reward ratio of at least 4-1. Below 80.00, there is support between $68 and $70 and then open air to $57-$60. Given the fundamentals of the market and of the economy, it is going to be very difficult for the bulls to break resistance, meaning that the probabilites of this being a successful trade are decent.

Sales of FIX above 92.00 and using a stop loss at 95.35 and having a downside objective of 60.00 will offer a 9.5-1 risk/reward ratio. My rating on the trade is a 3.75 (on a scale of 1-5 with 5 being the highest).

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Updates
Monthly & Yearly Portfolio Results
Closed Trades, Open Positions and Stop Loss Changes

Status of account for 2007: Profit of $9,758 per 100 shares after losses and commissions were subtracted.
Status of account for 2008: Profit of $14,704 per 100 shares after losses and commissions were subtracted.
Status of account for 2009: Profit of $7,523 per 100 shares after losses and commissions were subtracted.
Status of account for 2010: Profit of $24,045 per 100 shares after losses and commissions were subtracted.
Status of account for 2011: Profit of $3,616 per 100 shares after losses and commissions were subtracted.
Status of account for 2012: Profit of $3,399 per 100 shares after losses and commissions were subtracted.
Status of account for 2013: Profit of $15,886 per 100 shares after losses and commissions were subtracted.
Status of account for 2014: Profit of $21,221 per 100 shares after losses and commissions were subtracted.
Status of account for 2015: Profit of $19,190 per 100 shares after losses and commissions were subtracted.
Status of account for 2016: Loss of $15,134 per 100 shares after losses and commissions were subtracted.
Status of account for 2017: Loss of $9,666 per 100 shares after losses and commissions were subtracted.
Status of account for 2018: Profit of $1,637 per 100 shares after losses and commissions were subtracted
Status of account for 2019: Profit of $13,051per 100 shares after losses and commissions were subtracted

Status of account for 2020: Loss of $16,684 per 100 shares after losses and commissions were subtracted.
Status of account for 2021: Profit of $527 per 100 shares after losses and commissions were subtracted.

Status of account for 2022, as of 5/1

Profit of $11,183 using 100 shares per mention (after commissions & losses)

Closed out profitable trades for May per 100 shares per mention (after commission)

CALM (short) $847
AMZN (long) $1145
AMZN (long) $617

Closed positions with increase in equity above last months close minus commissions.

SCCO (long) $388

Total Profit for May, per 100 shares and after commissions $2,989

Closed out losing trades for May per 100 shares of each mention (including commission)

DOW (short) $192
AMZN (long) $599
AMZN (long) $180
QQQ (long) $80
AAPL (long) $239
AAPL (long) $259
AU (long) $24
AAPL (short) $29

Closed positions with decrease in equity below last months close plus commissions.

NONE

Total Loss for May, per 100 shares, including commissions $1,602

Open positions in profit per 100 shares per mention as of 5/31

FSLR (long) $600
AM (long) $68
PRTS (long) $1

Open positions with increase in equity above last months close.

VET (long) $432
PRTS (long) $158

Total $1,259

Open positions in loss per 100 shares per mention as of 5/31

NONE

Open positions with decrease in equity below last months close.

AU (long) $972
BTZI (long) $40
SNDL (long)$15
PLNHF (long) $16
VNET (long) $64
ZLAB (long) $5430
ENG (long) $70
NEM (long) $1500
FSLR (long) $488
SRUTF (long) $45

Total $8,640

Status of trades for month of May per 100 shares on each mention after losses subtracted.

Loss of $5,994

Status of account/portfolio for 2022, as of 5/31

Profit of $5,189

per 100 shares.



Updates on Held Stocks

AAPL generated a negative reversal week, having made a new 3-week high and then closing red and near the low of the week, suggesting further downside below last week low at 144.46 will be seen this week. The red weekly close made last week's close at 149.64 into a successful retest of the decent weekly close resistance at the $150 level and suggests that the probabilities favor resumption of the downtrend with a break of the present intraweek support at 132.61. Nonetheless and for that to become a probable action, there are 2 intraweek supports where the bulls are likely to step in and try to stop the bears. The first intraweek support is at 138.80 and the second one is at 137.14. A break of those supports would be an ominous sign for the bulls. To the upside, resistance is found 149.77 and pivotal at 151.74. Stop loss should now be at 151.84. Probabilities favor the stock trading between 149.77 and 138.80 this week as the traders await further fundamental news. Probabilities favor the bears overall though.

AM generated a new 6-week intraweek high and a new 7-week weekly closing high and closed in the upper half of the week's trading range, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 11.24 will be seen this week. There is decent to perhaps even strong resistance between 11.50 and 11.71 (11.68 on a daily closing basis), which needs to be broken in order for the previous uptrend to resume. Nonetheless, if that happens, there is open air up to 13.72. On a daily closing basis, support should now be found between 10.50 and 10.60. With the stock having tested the 200-week MA successfully and Oil due to move higher, probabilities favor the bulls.

AU generated an outside week (higher highs and lower lows than the previous week) but still ended up doing nothing as the close on Friday was just $.02 cents above the previous weekly close. This is the 3rd week in a row that the stock is simply idling just below the pivotal weekly close point at 17.94. As such, it is evident that the traders are waiting for fundamental news that is likely to come out this week on Friday with the Inflation report. On a positive note, the stock going below the previous week's low does mean that if it goes above last week's high at 18.40, the needed/required retest of the recent low will have been accomplished. The stock did close in the upper half of the week's trading range, suggesting the bulls do have the probabilities in their favor. On an intraweek and on a daily closing basis, short-term pivotal support is found between 17.04 and 17.08. To the upside, pivotal resistance is at 18.40. There is a gap up at 19.00 that if closed, would give the bulls the short-term edge. Probabilities slightly favor the bulls.

ENG generated a very uneventful week, having traded in a very small $.11 cent trading range where nothing of any consequence was broken or even touched. The stock did close near the high of the week and further upside above last week's high at 1.23 is expected to be seen this week. If the bulls can now get above the 1.39 level, the bears will short-cover and the bulls will enter. Short-term pivotal support is now found at 1.02. A break of that level will once again destroy the base building process that is now built. Probabilities do slightly favor the bulls but for now there seems to be little interest in trading the stock in either direction.

IDCC generated another green weekly close but it was possibly indicative as it confirmed the break of the 200-week MA, currently at 64.16, that got broken to the upside the previous week. The stock closed near the high of the week and further upside above last week's high at 66.55 is expected to be seen this week. The stock is showing short-term pivotal intraweek resistance at 67.06 that if broken, would suggest a move up to the $69 level occur. The rally this week was a bit of a surprise given the weakness in the index market and therefore the probabilities of this being a successful short trade have diminished. On a positive note and using the intraday 10-minute closing chart, there is a small "mountain" of resistance around the 66.00 level, which includes the 200 10-minute MA, currently at 66.71. This does make this whole area pivotal. It is evident though, that the bears need to do something starting on Monday given that the stock closed at 66.03 on Friday. There is no room to the upside for any further movement on a 10-minute closing basis. There is no close by support on the daily chart that if broken would trigger new selling. Nonetheless and on the 10-minute intraday chart, a confirmed 10-minute close below 65.35 would give a small edge to the bears. As such and for Monday's trading range, a move up above 67.06 would be bullish whereas a move below 65.35 would be a signal that the bears are stepping up to the plate. Probabilities slightly favor the bulls.

NEM generated a red weekly close and did close in the lower half of the week's trading range, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 66.63 will be seen this week. If that does happen, it is not necessarily a negative as the recent 3-month intraweek low at 63.68 requires a successful retest of it before the bulls climb back aboard. Some intraweek support is found at 65.42 that could be the downside objective for the week. Short-term pivotal resistance is found at last week's daily closing high at 69.54 and any daily close above 72.13 would suggest the correction is over. Probabilities slightly favor the bulls this week.

PLNHF had another "nothing burger" event week with the exception that the stock did go above the previous week's high and did close green but near the low of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 1.49 will be seen. If that does occur and the previous week's low at 1.37 is not broken, it will open the door to for a successful retest of the downtrend low and a recovery rally to ensue. It is a lot of "ifs" but this type of action is a necessity to turn establish a bottom to a downtrend. The daily chart does suggest that a drop down to 1.44 will occur this week. If that does happen and the stock thereafter goes above 1.69 a bottom to the downtrend will be established. Another new low below 1.37 will open a "new" can of negative worms. Simply stated, this has to be the low of the downtrend or the company is heading to becoming a pink sheet stock where a miracle needs to happen to turn around.

PRTS generated negative reversal week, having gone above the previous week's high but then closing red and slightly in the lower half of the week's trading range, suggesting a slightly higher probability of going below last week's low at 7.47 and above last week's high at 8.14. By the same token, nothing of what happened this week was "statement-like", meaning that it was more of a "wait and see what is to happen" week than an indicative week. Evidently the recent spike-rally weekly closing high at 7.89 is pivotal. The stock closed on Friday at 7.76 so nothing positive but also nothing negative occurred. There is intraweek support at 7.47 and then nothing until 7.00. There is short term pivotal resistance at 8.14 and then noting until 9.00. The traders are likely waiting for direction from the index market.

VET bulls continued to move higher in an attempt to break the pivotal resistance at 23.93 and re-establish continuation of the uptrend with a $26 objective. The stock closed in the upper half of the week's trading range, suggesting further upside above 23.28 will be seen this week. With Oil and Gas due to move higher, the probabilities favor the bulls. Short term intraweek pivotal support is now found at 21.67, which if broken would stop the momentum and that is not what the bulls need or want. Probabilities favor the bulls.

VNET, like with other held stocks, generated an uneventful week. Nonetheless and like with other stocks, the stock closed near the low of the week and further downside below last week's low at 5.22 is expected to be seen and if seen could end up being the required and needed retest of the previous week's low in which a successful retest of the island formation occurred. A retest of that low would confirm the first retest and give the bull's new and additional support. Two daily closes above 5.99 will confirm the retests as successful. Island formations are "extremely" rare occurrences but when they do happen and are confirmed, they signal a major bottom having been built and a trend change of consequence. The high daily closing price for the past 7 months is at 10.01 and that would be the very first objective that an island formation would generate. Nonetheless, island formations mean a trend change and a rally up to only $10 would not signal a trend change. For a trend change to be validated, a rally to at least the 200-week MA, currently at 15.12, would need to occur. As such, if the island formation is confirmed, you are looking at a stock that could easily triple in price over the next 3-6 months.

ZLAB generated a positive reversal week, having made a new 3-week low and then closing green and near the high of the week, suggesting further upside above last week' high at 32.10 will be seen. The green weekly close means that the previous week's close at 29.64 has now become the needed and required retest of the multi-year weekly closing low at 28.55, suggesting that a bottom to the downtrend has now been found and successfully tested. That will not be confirmed until a weekly close above 36.79 occurs. Nonetheless, the bulls now have the probabilities in their favor. Any intraweek move above 38.01 would now open the door for a rally up to the $49-$50 level. Thursday's low at 27.51 is now pivotal support that should not be broken if the signals given this week are valid. Probabilities favor the bulls.


1) SNDL - Averaged long at .905 (2 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at .3771.

2) PRTS - Averaged long at 7.29 (2 mentions). Stop loss now at 5.65. Stock closed on Friday at 7.76.

3) SRUTF - Averaged long at .0738 (3 mentions). No stop loss at moment. Stock closed on Friday at .0198.

4) BTZI - Averaged long at .0935 (4 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at .004.

5) ZLAB - Averaged long at 71.955 (6 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 30.39.

6) AU - Averaged long at 26.184 (4 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 17.83.

7) NEM - Averaged long at 72.133 (3 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 67.82.

8) ENG - Averaged long at 3.378 (5 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 1.20.

9) VET - Averaged long at 19.08 (2 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 22.70.

10) VNET - Averaged long at 5.32. No stop loss now at 4.98. Stock closed on Friday at 5.37.

11) FSLR - Liquidated at 74.42. Averaged long at 68.48. Profit on the trade of $1188 per 100 shares (2 mentions).

12) SCCO - Liquidated at 63.99. Averaged long at 61.09. Profit on the trade of $380 per 100 shares (2 mentions).

13) AAPL - Shorted at 150.38. Stop loss at 151.84. Stock closed on Friday at 145.38.

14) IDCC - Shorted at 65.89. Stop loss at 67.35. Stock closed on Friday at 66.03.

15) AAPL - Shorted at 150.09. Liquidated at 150.38. Loss on the trade of $29 per 100 shares.


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Disclaimer

The opinions and commentaries by Mr. De Vito are not a recommendation to buy or sell, but rather a charting guideline, based on his own knowledge and experience, regarding the stocks he is following or that are brought to him by others. Mr. De Vito does not presently offer a track record of his trading experiences. No inference of success and/or failure should be assumed. The information enclosed above, regarding his background, length of trading, and experience, is correct but is not meant to suggest, state, or infer any future success in trading, based on his opinions.

The information herewith included should only be used by investors who are aware of the risk inherent in securities trading. Mr. De Vito accepts no liability whatsoever for any loss arising from any use of the information and/or comments he supplies.




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