Issue #767
May 29, 2022
The Oasis

Newsletter


The newsletter with chart analysis for stocks and stock indexes

Stock Indexes Analysis/Evaluation


Bulls gain short-term edge. Likely to last 1-3 weeks max!

DOW Friday closing price - 33212
SPX Friday closing price - 4158
NASDAQ Friday closing price - 12681
RUT Friday closing price - 1887

The bulls won the week, having rallied around 6% across the board and all giving short-term buy signals, having broken the high daily closes made during the past 17 trading days. All indexes closed on the highs of the week and further upside above this past week's highs (same as closing prices) are expected to be seen this week. There was no specific news that generated the rally, meaning it was more of a short-covering event (or bargain basement buying) that brought about the rise in prices, believing by the action seen that perhaps the lows to this downtrend have been made. Adding to that belief is the fact that the end of the month is approaching and May has had a seasonal tendency to be a down month with recovery starting in June.

Nonetheless and other than the DOW generating a failure signal against the bears on the weekly closing chart and the RUT testing the 200-week MA successfully, the other two indexes did not accomplish any kind of reliable/dependable sign "on the weekly closing chart" that a bottom to the downtrend has been found. As such, it is unlikely that any mad rush to buy will be seen at this time. Questions still need to be answered (both fundamentally and chart-wise) before the bulls will commit to further upside with any degree of confidence.

At this time though, the probabilities are high that the buying (or selling) of the indexes will depend much on the economic reports due out over the next 3 weeks. This week on Wednesday and Friday, the ISM Index and Jobs reports (respectively) come out. The following Friday (June 10th) the CPI inflation report comes out and the week after that, Retail Sales and the FOMC rate decision come out on Wednesday (June 15th). As such and for the next 13 trading days, neither the bulls nor the bears will have any big advantage, unless next week's reports are way out of line.

As such, traders are likely to stick closely to the charts for direction and in using the charts, the weekly closes are what is going to be of importance. In the DOW, the 34000 to 34260 level (on a weekly closing basis) is going to be decent resistance that is unlikely to be broken without some positive news. This means that another 800-1000 points to the upside could be seen. In the SPX, 4204 to 4254 area is going to be resistance and that means that as much as 100 points to the upside can be seen. In the NASDAQ, the area around the 13258 level is going to be resistance. Not only is there established resistance there but the 13258 level is where a downtrend signal occurred (change of trend). As such, testing that level is a high probability. This means that the index could rally as much as 600 points more. In the RUT, the 1970 level is resistance and that means that it could rally another 80 points from Friday's close. Once again, all these levels are based on weekly closes as intraweek levels are not that important. This does not mean the indexes will rally that much (they could fail to rally to those levels), only that these levels (if reached) are unlikely to be broken without some positive fundamental news.

As far as the downside is concerned, daily close support is now going to be found at the levels where the buy signals were given this week. In the DOW that is at 32654, in the SPX it is at 4088, in the NASDAQ it is at 12564 and in the RUT it is at 1840. Confirmed daily closes below those levels will weaken the chart and reduce the chances of reaching the upside objectives given above.

For the beginning of this week and until Wednesday morning at 10:00 am (when the ISM Index report comes out), the bulls should have the edge and go higher. By the same token, a drop to test the daily close breakouts could happen on either Monday or Tuesday. After that, the reports will start "calling the shots" on whether more upside or not (and to what degree) is to occur. As such, the probabilities do favor the bulls this week.


GOLD generated another green weekly close but nothing of any great consequence occurred given that no resistance levels of pivotal importance were broken. Gold closed slightly in the lower half of the weeks' trading range, suggesting a very slightly higher possibility of going below last weeks' low at $1836 than above last weeks' high at $1869, suggesting the bulls do not yet seem to have enough ammunition with which to punch through the daily and weekly close resistance of some importance at $1872. On a daily and weekly closing basis, support is now found at $1831, which does suggest that the pivotal area for direction has now shrunk as $1831 and $1872 are now both short-term pivotal. Nonetheless and with the Dollar having given a failure signal and inflation likely to continue unabated, probabilities do favor the bulls.

OIL generated a new 12-week weekly closing high and in the process the bulls were able to make a small statement, having closed above 113.93, which was the successful retest of the 115.63 14-year high weekly close, made 12 weeks ago. In addition, Oil did generate the 5th green weekly close in a row which does put the bulls in a precarious situation as they "must" make a new multi-year weekly closing high "this week" or face a strong profit taking binge if they fail. Oil closed near the high of the week and further upside above this week's high at 115.30 is expected to be seen. On an intraweek basis, resistance is found at 116.64. Above that level, there is total open air until the March high at 130.50 is reached. As far as support is concerned, last week's low at 108.61 is now pivotal support, which if broken will likely bring in a strong amount of selling interest. Evidently and by the weekly close above 113.93, the bulls have the probabilities of a breakout on their side. The pivotal intraweek levels to watch this week at 108.61 and 116.64. A break of either one will be short-term pivotal.

DOLLAR generated a failure signal against the bulls, having closed convincingly below the 2 previous high weekly closes at 103.09 (from 2017) and below 102.82 (from 2020). The Dollar closed at 101.67 and closed on the low of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 101.43 will be seen this week. This failure signal has to be worrisome to the bulls as it suggests that the traders are not convinced that the Fed is doing what is necessary to stop inflation from heading higher. This means that this failure move down is likely to continue unless the Fed does "more" than is expected in the meeting on the 15th of the month. That is unlikely to occur. On a chart basis, this means that a drop down to the $100 level is likely to be seen but on a fundamental basis, it does suggest that inflation sensitive products (such as Gold and Oil) are likely to go up. This failure signal has not yet been confirmed with a 2nd close below 102.82, meaning that if the bulls want to negate the signal, they need to do it this week. Probabilities favor the bears.

BITCOIN bulls find themselves in a negative situation, having now seen 3 weekly closes in a row below the pivotal week's close support at 31559 that occurred on the 2nd week of May. In addition, the bulls have been totally unable to generate any kind of a rally since that break occurred as every intraweek high during the past 15 trading days has been lower than the previous one. The only thing that has held up so far is the intraweek low at 26600 that was made on May 11th. With it likely to close once again today (Sunday) on the lower half of the trading range (presently trading at 29200), it is likely that 26600 level will be tested this week. Minor but likely short-term pivotal resistance is found at 30218 and more pivotal at 31416. A break below the 26600 level is totally void of any support until the 19817 level is reached. Probabilities favor the bears.


Stock Analysis/Evaluation
CHART Outlooks

I have no mentions this week other than buying additional shares of VNET and ZLAB if and when they do what is required (see held stock updates). Otherwise, I am leaning toward being a seller (including getting out of some of the held stocks). Unfortunately as of this writing, there are a few questions that still need to be answered before actually laying the money out and those answers are not available right now.

As always, if those questions are answered during the week, I will give the mentions on the message board. As stated on Friday, one such stock that I am looking to short is AAPL but at this time, and until it is seen where the stock opens up tomorrow, no mention can be given at this time. This is a short-term pivotal area and it is possible (maybe even probable) that the stock will open above the desired entry point (around but mostly below $150) so that giving a mention at this time may end up being moot. I do plan to short at least 1 (and maybe up to 3) stock(s) over the next 1-2 weeks. I will let you know when I know.

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Updates
Updates on Held Stocks
Closed Trades, Open Positions and Stop Loss Changes
AM generated a new 26-trading day intraweek and weekly closing high and closed on the high of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 11.00 will be seen this week. The action seen, generated a new buy signal on both the daily and weekly closing charts, as well as a failure signal against the bears, having closed above a previous low daily close at 10.77, that when broken caused the stock to fall all the way down to 9.57. The action does mean that the bears have lost the edge they gained 4 weeks ago but it does not yet mean the bulls are back in control. There is decent to perhaps even strong resistance between 11.50 and 11.71, which needs to be broken in order for the previous uptrend to resume. Nonetheless, if that happens, there is open air up to 13.72. On a daily closing basis, support should now be found between 10.50 and 10.60. With the stock having tested the 200-week MA successfully and Oil due to move higher, probabilities favor the bulls.

AU did nothing this week based on the weekly close, given that it closed just $.07 cents higher than the previous week's close. The bears maintained the edge (or even control) as the bulls have been unable to generate a failure signal against the bears (a weekly close above 17.94), in spite of the fact that the stock has traded above that line on 5 or that last 6 trading days, including Friday. The stock closed "very slightly" in the lower half of the week's trading range, suggesting a very slightly higher probability of going below last week's low at 17.36 than above last week's high at 18.32. The bulls are also facing two negatives this week, inasmuch as the recent intraweek low at 15.87 has not yet had a successful retest of it and secondly, the weekly gap up at 19.00 has not yet been closed even though the bulls have tried to close the gap every week over the past 3 weeks. As such, the probabilities do favor the bears this week. On an intraweek and on a daily closing basis, short-term pivotal support is found between 17.04 and 17.08. As such, the stock can go below last week's low next week and still be in a recovery phase. Evidently, closure of the gap at 19.00 would be a positive for the bulls.

ENG generated a new buy signal on the daily closing chart and a failure signal against the bears on both the daily and weekly closing charts. The stock closed on the high of the week and further upside above last week's high at 1.19 is expected to be seen this week. Once again, the chart is set up for a recovery rally of consequence to occur. It was set up for such a rally 6 weeks ago but then the index market fell to pieces. If the bulls can now get above the 1.39 level, the bears will short-cover and the bulls will enter. Short-term pivotal support is now found at 1.02. A break of that level will once again destroy the base building process that is now built. Probabilities do favor the bulls, especially now that the indexes are recovering.

FSLR generated a new 15-trading day high and closed on the high of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 72.15 will be seen this week. In addition, the stock generated a buy signal on the daily closing chart as well as a failure signal against the bears, having closed above the previous low weekly close that brought about the selling that took the stock down to 59.60. Last but not least, the stock also closed above the 200-week MA, currently at 68.01, meaning that the bears have lost the short-term control they had a few weeks' ago and the stock now seems to be in a recovery phase that offers further upside of some consequence. One short-term negative is that the stock gapped up on Friday between 68.48 and 68.60, which will be a magnet at some point. Then again, the break above the 200-week MA is likely to be tested, meaning that a drop back to the $68 level is highly likely to be seen at some point in the near future. For now though, a rally up to the $74-75 level is likely to be seen first before any retest occurs. It does need to be mentioned that the upside objective of this trade is the 81.87 level, meaning that for now, this is a "tradeable" stock and not a buy and hold stock.Short term pivotal intraweek support is now found at 63.87. Probabilities favor the bulls this week but keeping in mind that this is a tradeable stock, consideration should be given to taking profits above $74 and buying back around $68.

NEM generated a 2nd green weekly close and closed slightly in the upper half of the week's trading range, suggesting a slightly higher probability of going above last week's high at 70.16 than below last week's low at 66.83. The stock did not generate any signals of any consequence, meaning that it was not an indicative week. By the same token, if another green weekly close is seen this coming Friday and above 69.20 (closed on Friday at 68.71, it would give the bulls a new edge. Using the daily chart, a daily close above 72.13 would generate a failure signal against the bears. Some minor daily close support is found at 66.20 that should hold up if the bulls have gained the edge back.

PLNHF did generate a new 24-month intraweek and weekly closing low but did it in a way that was not statement-like as this 1.50 area is full of copious support that goes all the way back to 2019 and that was in place for a total of 10 months. In simple words, the bears remain in control but have no further chart ammunition to take the stock lower, at least not at this time. By the same token, the bulls do not have any ammunition to generate a rally. This was plainly seen by the closes that occurred Tuesday through Friday, which were all within $.05 cents of each other, with the low daily close at 1.46 and the high daily close at 1.51. The low of the week was seen on Friday though but then the bulls were able to rally the stock to close near the high of the day, suggesting the first course of action for the week will be to the upside. If the bulls can get above 1.66 or generate a daily close above 1.63, a rally back up to the $2 level will likely ensue over the next few weeks. Intraweek support will now be found at 1.26.

PRTS generated another green weekly close and did generate a 10% increase in price. The stock closed near the high of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 8.13 will be seen this week. The bulls were successful in closing above the 200-week MA, currently at 7.67 (closed at 7.89) but failed to generate a new buy signal on the weekly closing chart, given that a close above 7.89 was required for that to occur. Evidently, another green close next Friday would accomplish that goal. On another positive note, the stock did generate a buy signal on the daily chart and finds itself trading above the 12-week intraweek high 7.77 that the bulls were unable to break during that period of time with the exception of 2 days right after the better than expected earnings report comes out. This likely means that the bulls have now established that the stock should go higher unless the indexes take another strong move down. Pivotal intraweek resistance is found at 9.00 and pivotal intraweek support is found at 6.45. Probabilities favor the bulls.

SCCO has now recouped 15% in price over the past 10 days and did close on Friday on the high of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 62.80 will be seen this week. The weekly chart shows open air above until 66.90 is reached. Nonetheless and on the daily closing chart, there is resistance at the 200-day MA, currently at 64.00, which at this time is unlikely to get broken. One negative on the chart is that there is an open gap below between 59.13 and 59.35 that will be a magnet unless another gap is seen here on Monday. As such, if the stock gets up to somewhere between 64.00 and 66.90 this week, consideration should be given to taking profits given that the gap will be a magnet and the chart suggests that at some point, a drop back down to the $55 level is likely to be seen. Probabilities do favor the bulls this week but not for more than that. One magnet that does exist to the upside is a down gap between 65.53 and 65.19, meaning that could be the objective to the upside this week.

VET generated a new buy signal on both the daily and weekly closing chart, meaning that the bears have lost the control they had obtained 6 weeks ago. The stock did close on the high of the week and further upside above last week's high at 22.20 is expected to be seen this week. It is important to note that tomorrow (Tuesday) is the monthly close and the stock is having a positive reversal month and is presently trading above the 3-year monthly closing high at 21.02 that was made 2 months ago. This does suggest that the uptrend is about to resume and if that is the case (probably), that the objective is the 25.58 to 26.77 level, which is where the next monthly close resistance is located (which is also seen on all the other charts). On a daily closing basis, pivotal resistance is found at 23.52. If broken, there is open air above to $26. Intraweek support is found at 20.00. Nonetheless and at this time with Oil and Gas looking strong, a drop down to that level would actually be a negative. This does suggest that the bulls will continue to move the stock higher this week and possibly (and maybe even probably), generate a break out.

VNET generated a new 10-week intraweek low but then the bulls were able to bring in some new buying interest to close the stock near the high of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 5.75 will be seen this week. If that does occur, a very important chart event will have occurred, as the island formation will clearly show a successful retest of it (the first since it occurred 10 weeks ago). The island formation is down between 4.67 and 4.29 and the low this past week was 4.45, which was then followed by 3 green daily closes in a row and a rally of 19% from the low, strongly suggesting that it was tested successfully. A rally above last week's high will further strengthen the formation and two daily closes above 5.99 will confirm the retest as successful. Island formations are "extremely" rare occurrences but when they do happen and are confirmed, they signal a major bottom having been built and a trend change of consequence. The high daily closing price for the past 7 months is at 10.01 and that would be the very first objective that an island formation would generate. Nonetheless, island formations mean a trend change and a rally up to only $10 would not signal a trend change. For a trend change to be validated, a rally to at least the 200-week MA, currently at 15.12, would need to occur. As such, if the island formation is confirmed, you are looking at a stock that could easily triple in price over the next 3-6 months.

ZLAB generated a negative reversal week, having gone above the previous week's high but then closing red, below the previous week's low and on the low of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 28.32 will be seen this week. This stock that has been on a major downtrend for the past 52 weeks, dropping from a high of 181.92 to the low seen 3 weeks ago at 24.50. Nonetheless, the stock did show a better than expected earnings report 3 weeks ago that generated a 36% rally from the low and that suggests that a bottom is now in place. It also needs to be mentioned that the major downtrend was not caused by negative news but by increased spending by the company to build/create and put into place a program to sell its health products to the masses. In simply words, funds to expand the business in a big way. As such, the drop in price has not been a future negative but a future positive. Having said that, anytime a stock is in a major uptrend and there has been no "earth-shaking" positive fundamental change, chart retests of the previous lows to confirm a bottom need to be built. Given that the stock made a new multi-year bottom 3 weeks ago, that bottom needs to be tested successfully before the bulls climb aboard and that is likely what is happening now. The previous multi-year low that was made prior to the 24.50 low was 25.74 and as such, a drop down to that level is possible. Nonetheless, it is not probable as the news (earnings report) has shown fundamental reasons to believe that a bottom is now set "without" a need to specifically (and exactly) test those previous lows. With last week's drop, that is now sufficient. What is likely to happen is that last week's low at 28.32 will be broken this week. Nonetheless, the previous low daily close (prior to the low at 24.50) was 27.77 and that is the likely downside objective for this week. There is no resistance above at all on the daily or weekly chart until 38.01 is reached. Nonetheless, on the intraday chart there is pivotal resistance at 31.23 and at 32.60. If those two levels are broken, the chart will suggest that the lows have been tested successfully and that a recovery rally of consequence is to come. It is even possible (maybe even probable) that the stock will NOT go below last week's low and start generating a recovery starting on Monday. A break of those intraday levels would suggest that is the case. Probabilities favor the bulls.


1) SNDL - Averaged long at .905 (2 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at .3985.

2) PRTS - Averaged long at 7.29 (2 mentions). Stop loss now at 5.65. Stock closed on Friday at 7.89.

3) SRUTF - Averaged long at .0738 (3 mentions). No stop loss at moment. Stock closed on Friday at .019.

4) BTZI - Averaged long at .0935 (4 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at .01885.

5) ZLAB - Averaged long at 71.955 (6 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 29.90.

6) AU - Averaged long at 26.184 (4 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 17.81.

7) NEM - Averaged long at 72.133 (3 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 68.71.

8) ENG - Averaged long at 3.378 (5 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 1.19.

9) VET - Averaged long at 19.08 (2 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 21.94.

10) VNET - Averaged long at 5.32. No stop loss now at 4.98. Stock closed on Friday at 5.49.

11) FSLR - Averaged long at 68.48 (2 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 72.01.

12) SCCO - Averaged long at 61.09 (2 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 62.76.


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Disclaimer

The opinions and commentaries by Mr. De Vito are not a recommendation to buy or sell, but rather a charting guideline, based on his own knowledge and experience, regarding the stocks he is following or that are brought to him by others. Mr. De Vito does not presently offer a track record of his trading experiences. No inference of success and/or failure should be assumed. The information enclosed above, regarding his background, length of trading, and experience, is correct but is not meant to suggest, state, or infer any future success in trading, based on his opinions.

The information herewith included should only be used by investors who are aware of the risk inherent in securities trading. Mr. De Vito accepts no liability whatsoever for any loss arising from any use of the information and/or comments he supplies.




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