Issue #760
April 10, 2022 | Newsletter
The newsletter with chart analysis for stocks and stock indexes |
Stock Indexes Analysis/Evaluation
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| Bulls Have Lost Their Edge - Playing Defense This Week!
DOW Friday closing price - 34721
All indexes generated a red weekly close and with the exception of the DOW, they all closed on or near the lows of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's lows (SPX below 4450, NASDAQ below 14307, and RUT below 1984) will be seen this week. The DOW outperformed all other indexes and closed slightly in the upper half of the week's trading range, suggesting a slightly higher possibility of going above last week's high at 35112 than going below last week's low at 34190. Nonetheless, the fact the DOW outperformed the other indexes is a negative to begin with, given that the index is considered to be where the "safe" money goes to (not the speculative money).
Overall, the bears remain with the edge, especially considering that all indexes are presently below the 200-day MA's. The SPX broke above the line 11 days ago (was a positive sign) but the breakout was negated on Wednesday and it closed below the line on Friday, meaning that it too, has now lost the minor bull edge it has had for the past couple of weeks. The most negative of the indexes is the NASDAQ given that there has only been 1 day out of the last 2 months where the index traded above the MA line and that 1 day breakout (3/29) was negated the following day. Additionally and even more importantly, the index gapped down on Wednesday 14782 to to 14639 and given that the index closed "on the low of the day" on Friday, a gap down on Monday would create a breakaway/runaway gap formation that would require positive fundamental news to negate. As such, the outlook for this coming week is a negative one.
This coming week there are a few reports due out that could be catalytic for either side. On Tuesday, the inflation figures (CPI) come out. Expectations are for a 1.2% being the number reported. This is a much higher number than last months at .8% and it would mean that inflation continues to rise in a strong way. Nonetheless and given that is the "expectation", if it comes in at that number or less, the reaction to it is not likely to be negative. The other report of some consequence is Retail Sales on Thursday. It is expected to be .6%, which is higher than last month's .3%. The other area of report importance this week is the beginning of the new earnings quarter. On Wednesday, JPM reports and on Thursday, C, GS, MS and WFC report and earnings are going to be a powerful catalyst in this earnings quarter.
As far as the charts are concerned, the downside targets for this week are clearly defined and somewhat pivotal for the mid to long term. In the SPX and on an intraweek basis, there is minor support at 4364 and then nothing until 4278. Below that, there is support at 4222. The chart suggests that a drop down to 4222-4278 is the best likelihood, unless the economic reports are better than expected. Given that the important economic reports for the week are all specific to the SPX, this is the key index to watch this week. In the NASDAQ, the downside target for the week is 13724. That level is a magnet at this time. Anything below that level would further weaken the chart. These are the 2 indexes of interest this week and that will be catalytic if broken or reached but hold.
On a weekly closing basis, both of these indexes have a very pivotal weekly close support that if broken, would generate a very negative signal. In the NASDAQ that level is at 13301 and in the SPX it is at 4204. In looking at the daily closing charts and what they say are the most likely downside objectives, in the SPX, a drop down to 4328 is the most likely (that is 160 points lower than the close on Friday) and on the NASDAQ it is the 140004 level. If those are broken at any time, the bears will get an additional edge.
To the upside, the levels to watch this week are as follows. On a daily closing basis, any confirmed close in the SPX above the 200-day MA, currently at 4492, would give the bulls a slight edge. In the NASDAQ, closure of the breakaway gap at 14782 would take some of the selling pressure off the index.
The onus is on the shoulders of the bulls. If there are no positive surprises in the economic or earnings reports this week, the chart picture is likely to be fulfilled as stated above. As such and of this writing, the probabilities favor the bears.
OIL generated another red weekly close and closed in the lower half of the week's trading range, suggesting further downside below last week low at 93.86 will be seen this week. Nonetheless and on the daily chart, Oil did generate a successful retest of the pivotal daily close support at 95.03, having closed on Thursday at 96.03 and then at 97.73 on Friday and on the high of the day, suggesting the first course of business for the week on Monday will be further upside. If that does occur and another green daily close occurs, the successful retest will be confirmed and that will lower the probabilities of any further downside (on an intraweek basis) occurring next week. As it is, Oil is showing a double low at 93.53/93.83 and if that double low stands up, it will give the bulls ammunition to generate a recovery rally. There is some minor (but somewhat indicative) intraweek resistance at 100.54 that broken would begin to show that the bulls have recovered some strength. The 105.59 level is pivotal for the short-term as a break of that level would offer open air up to the 112.95, which is a objective that all along has been anticipated to happen, if and when the fundamental picture does not change. Evidently, Tuesday's Inflation report could affect the chart one way or the other. At this time, the bears still have the edge but it is far less clear than it has been the past few weeks. A break below 93.53 would likely push Oil down to the 91.24 level and put everything at risk of a further breakdown of note if that level is broken.
DOLLAR made a new intraweek and weekly closing high and closed near the high, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 100.19 will be seen this week. The stock broke an important pivotal resistance level at 99.36 that suggests that the Dollar is now in a position to go up and test the all-time weekly closing high at 102.92. There is one more weekly close resistance area of note between 100.38-100.58 that needs to be broken before the attempt at the new high can occur. Nonetheless, that level could be seen this week. The new weekly close support level is now at 99.08. The fundamental picture now clearly favors the bulls given the planned rate increases that are to come this year. Ultimately and probably within 3-6 weeks, the all-time high will be tested. Probabilities favor the bulls.
BITCOIN came under sell pressure this past week, having generated a failure signal against the bulls on the daily closing chart, having closed below the 44549 level on Tuesday (was the high daily close from January 22 to March 24) and then confirming the failure with an additional 5 days below that level. Bitcoin is presently trading at 42586 (Sunday 9:40 am) and if it closes below the 42711/42239 tonight, a failure signal will be given on the weekly closing chart as well. If a failure signal is given on the weekly chart, it will be a short-term negative that will effectively stop the recovery rally for at least 3 weeks (until the end of the month). If Bitcoin closes out the month on Saturday April 30th below 45535, it will be a decent negative that could generate enough selling to cause it to test the important and mid-term pivotal monthly close support at 35043 to be tested, which if broken, would open the door for a major drop down to the 20,000 level. Probabilities now favor the bears at this time.
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Stock Analysis/Evaluation
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CHART Outlooks
The bears presently have the edge and it is unlikely to change much at this time. Nonetheless, the door is still open for some recovery rally starting at some point this week and continuing for the next 4 weeks (until May). The recovery rally will be dependent on 3 things this week with 1) the inflation report on Tuesday, the Retail Sales report on Thursday, and the earnings reports that begin on Wednesday. Nonetheless, nothing much changed this week and the market continues to favor "targeted stock picking" for profits.
The same mentions given last week are being given again this week as one did not reach the desired entry point and the other reached the first of two desired entry points but closed near the low of the week, suggesting the second (and lower) entry point might be reached this week. There is one more mention in the stock that was liquidated this past week at a good profit and is now in a corrective phase that if the new desired entry point is reached, is a purchase again.
PURCHASES
RBLX Friday Closing Price - 43.10
RBLX was a buy mention given the previous 2 week that has not yet reached the best desired entry point. Nonetheless, the stock did go down in price this past week and reaching the best desired entry point this week is now a decent possibility. The stock represents the #1 company in the new META universe of Virtual Reality. An area that promises great growth in the future when companies elect to use Virtual Reality in their sales approach to sell their products. The stock got up to 141.60 just 5 months ago but then proceeded to drop 75% in value to a low of 36.04, a level reached the 4 weeks ago. That 36.04 low was an all-time low (stock has been trading for only 57 weeks) but a positive reversal occurred 3 weeks ago, with the stock rallying to 39% from that low to the previous week's high at 50.24. The previous week, the stock generated a negative reversal week, having gone above the high seen 3 weeks ago but then closing red and near the low of the week for the past 2 weeks, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 42.55 will be seen this past week. Two desired entry points were given in the original mention 1) at 43.10 and 2) at 39.55. The latter has a good chance of being seen this week.
RBLX chart suggests that if the stock does get below last week's low that it could end up being the required/needed retest of the low, if and when the stock then goes above this week's high the following week. Given the huge downtrend the stock had been in, and which the bulls require to see before stepping in to buy such an intangible and yet unproven concept, a successful retest of the low is required before any new buying is seen. Simply stated, this is a stock that is likely to be traded based on charts than on fundamentals at this time and until more tangible profitable events (contracts) occur.
Using the intraweek daily chart, RBLX shows support at 39.51. Having gotten down to 42.55 and closing near the low of the week, getting down to the $40 level seems to be a high probability given that the indexes are likely to be under sell pressure this week. The stop loss on this trade will be at 35.65, meaning that the risk per share, will be somewhere around $3.74 per share.
To the upside and on an intraweek basis, RBLX has a minimum objective of 66.34, given that at that price there is an open gap that is likely to be targeted for closure if the bottom has been found (likely) and a recovery rally is to occur. In addition, that level is where the initial low week close support (at 67.34) is found. That is the level that when broken, caused the stock to fall to 36.04.
I do want to warn you that RBLX is a volatile stock, meaning that you either have to have a set order at a price to specific price or be on top of the stock during the day, in order to buy at the desired entry point. The volatility is also a positive, given that the upside objective could be reached in short order (not wait a long time. In fact, the chart suggests that if the stock has found a bottom and is ready to recover, that a rally to the $66 level could occur over the next 4-6 weeks.
Purchase of RBLX below 40.00 and using a stop loss at 35.65 and having a 66.34 objective, will offer a 6-1 risk/reward ratio. My rating on the trade is a 3.25 (on a scale of 1-5 with 5 being the highest).
VNET Friday Closing Price - 5.40
VNET is the second-largest Chinese carrier-neutral and Cloud-neutral data center provider. The stock got to an all-time high at 44.45 in February of last year and then has dropped 92% in value to last week's all-time low at 3.51. Nonetheless, the stock generated a key reversal 3 weeks ago, having made the new all-time low and then going above the previous week's high and closing green and near the high of the week, suggesting that a bottom has been found. Nonetheless, no follow through to the upside was seen and the stock has closed red the last 2 weeks (on the low last week), suggesting further downside below last week's low at 5.40 will be seen this week. The stock is showing and island formation on the daily chart, given that it gapped down 2 weeks ago on Monday from 4.67 to 4.29 and gapped up on Wednesday of that same week from 3.95 to 4.73. The weekly reversal and island formation (not yet confirmed) do strongly suggest that the stock has found a bottom.
VNET has no resistance of consequence above until 9.36 and a bit stronger and definitely midterm pivotal at 10.29. Above that level, there is open air to the 200-week MA, currently at 15.29, which is the mentions objective.
Island formations are extremely rare and most often closed. Nonetheless, when not closed, they portend not only a major bottom but also a strong recovery rally. The island formation is likely to be tested this week, especially given that there was no specific positive news for the company. The rally mostly occurring off of the Chinese government statement that they are going to strongly support their market and their economy. As such, a test of the island is likely to be seen, which in turn would give a very favorable entry point to the trade with small risk potential and a large profit potential.
Purchases of VNET around the $5 level (preferably just below $5) and using a stop loss at 3.41 and having at 15.29 objective will offer a 6-1 risk/reward ratio. My rating on the trade is a 3 (on a scale of 1-5 with 5 being the highest).
FSLR Friday Closing Price - 77.61
FSLR was a mention that was liquidated last week at a good profit. The positions held were liquidated after a support level got broken, due to the fact the company received a downgrade by a well-known rating company. The rating company gave a downside target of $65-$75.
FSLR closed last week near the low of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 76.95 is expected to be seen this week. In looking at the weekly chart, there is intraweek support at 73.91, at 70.52, at 67.71 and long term pivotal at 61.24. The 200-week MA is currently at 67.58 and highly unlikely to get broken on a weekly closing basis.
From a fundamental point of view, FSLR has overall strong support due to the high cost of Oil and the strong demand for green energy products. In addition, the company is #1 in the industry and has a well-established track record of success. As such, dips as is being seen now, are highly purchaseable.
From a chart point of view, FSLR made a new 16-month low at 61.24 in February of this year and then promptly rallied back up to 86.31, which was in effect a 41% rally (meaning an official end to the downtrend). Nonetheless, during this rally there was only one successful retest of the low when a drop below the previous week's low occurred (the time it dropped down to 70.52. Then again, the retest of the low was not the kind of a retest that established convincingly a successful retest as it came on a week that was a positive reversal week, likely due to short-covering. As such, a stronger retest of the low based on weakness being met with clear support buying area is needed.
Using the weekly closing chart, a drop down to 72.58 is highly likely to be seen. Using the daily closing chart, a drop down to the $70 demilitarized zone also has a decent probability of occurring, meaning that the desired entry point into this trade is between $70 and $72.60 area.
The upside objective remains the $89-$90 level. That was the objective on the previous mention and it remains highly viable. Nonetheless, on the previous mention the $110 level was a possibility, whereas right now that objective is not likely to be seen unless the fundamental picture changes.
The stop loss for this trade will be at 67.27 based on a daily close. Meaning that purchasing the stock at 72.59, using a 67.27 stop loss and having a $90 objective, offers a 3-1 risk/reward ratio. Evidently, if the purchase is done near the $70 level, the risk reward ratio will climb to as much as 7-1. My rating on the trade is a high one at 4.25 (on a scale of 1-5 with 5 being the highest).
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Updates
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| Updates on Held Stocks |
Closed Trades, Open Positions and Stop Loss Changes |
| AAPL generated follow through to the downside this week (after the previous week's negative reversal week) and did close once again near the low of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 169.20 will be seen. What is more important about this past week's action is that the stock did rally at the beginning of the week and now shows a successful retest of the successful-retest-of-the-all-time-high that happened to weeks ago at 178.96, when the 182.01 all-time high was first retested successfully. The stock also gapped down on Wednesday between 174.42 and 173.63 and if that is followed by another gap down this week, a breakaway/runaway gap will have been formed, which would suggest much further downside is to come. There is minor intraweek support at 166.56 and then open air below until 156.69, which does include the 200-day MA, currently at 157.73. Closure of the gap would weaken the bear hand but at this time, the objective of the mention at 154.70 remains highly possible. AU had another uneventful week, much like what has been seen the past 4 weeks, with the stock trading in a narrow trading range between 22.48 and 25.27 for this period of time. The stock closed in the middle of the week's trading range, suggesting an equal chance of going above last week's high at 24.62 than below last week's low at 22.75. During this period of time and on the daily closing chart, the same thing has happened, given that a breakout above resistance happened about 2 weeks ago that was negated the following day and a breakdown occurred this week, which was also negated the following day. As such, this week's Inflation report is likely to be a catalyst for movement in one direction or the other. A break above or below the trading range levels given above, will signal direction. Probabilities do favor the bulls as the trend is up. ENG generated a negative week that has weakened the chart short-term substantially. The stock made a new 7-week intraweek low and closed on the low of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 1.13 will be seen this week. The breakout seen 7 weeks ago has now been totally negated and the bears have the edge now. Downside objective once again is the 1.00 level. Short term pivotal resistance is now found at 1.38. Probabilities favor the bears. NEM generated a negative reversal week, having made a new all-time intraweek high at 83.72 but then closing red. Nonetheless, the negative reversal was not necessarily indicative of a potential short-term top as the stock closed in the upper half of the week's trading range, suggesting that a new all-time high will once again be made this week. This company has been outperforming Gold and all other Gold stocks and with Gold also leaning to the upside this week, the probabilities favor the bulls. Nonetheless, the inflation report on Tuesday is a potential catalyst for either side. The 78.74 level is now pivotal support, meaning the stop loss should now be raised to 78.64. Probabilities favor the bulls. PLNHF went below the previous week's low this past week and did close near the low of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 2.25 will be seen this week. Nonetheless, a retest of the 21-month low at 1.88 has been expected and now that the stock has gone below a previous week's low, that action can now occur if the stock goes above a previous week's high at any time before a new low is made. On the daily and weekly charts, there is no established support below until 1.88 is reached. Nonetheless, on the intraday 60-minute chart, there is support at 2.16, which if reached but holds and then rallies, it would fulfill the bottom-building scenario as well as fulfilling the lower-than-last week probability that the chart is suggesting will happen. A rally above 2.74 would now "seal-the-deal" of the stock having built a bottom. PRTS generated a positive reversal week, having made a new 3-week low and then closing green and near the high of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 7.17 will be seen. If that does occur, last week's low at 6.49 will become the needed/required retest of the 5.90 low and would generate new short-covering as well as speculative buying. Short-term pivotal resistance is found at 7.66, which if broken would confirm that a bottom has been built. The 200-week MA is currently at 7.48, meaning that if both the 7.66 level is broken on an intraweek basis "and" a weekly close above 7.48 occurs, it will be a short-term bullish sign of consequence. Pivotal intraweek support is now found at 6.49. Probabilities slightly favor the bulls. SCCO generated a negative reversal week, having made a new 11-month intraweek high but then closing red, below the previous week's intraweek low in the lower half of the week's trading range, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 71.96 will be seen this week. A sell signal was given on the daily closing chart, suggesting that for now, the rally may have "run out of gas". As such, looking for an exit point should be considered this week. Potential upside target for this week is 76.60. If that level is reached, strong consideration should be given to taking profits. At this time, the chart suggests that unless something bullish happens this week (such as a much higher-than-expected inflation report comes out), the downside target is the $65 level. The long term chart has not yet suffered any setbacks but withstanding a possible $11 move down from the possible upside target for the week, is a tough thing to do. In using the intraday chart, the 200 10-minute MA is currently at 74.82. As such, that is a very possible upside objective for Monday. Probabilities now favor the bears. VET generated an uneventful week, having closed only $.16 cents below the previous week's close and basically trading in the same range as the previous week's trading range. Nonetheless and in looking at the daily chart, the stock now shows 3 successful retests of the recent correction low at 18.55 and each retest low has been higher than the previous retest, meaning that the bulls have maintained their edge throughout the 4-week correction that has been occurring. The stock closed in the middle of the week's trading range, suggesting equal chances of going below last week's low at 20.03 than of going above last week's high at 22.95. Nonetheless, the stock rallied on Friday to close on the high of the day, suggesting the first course of business for the week will be to the upside and above Friday's high at 21.52. Given that there is no resistance above that level unti 22.95 is reached, the probabilities do favor the bulls. In addition, the chart is also suggesting that Oil will be rallying this week, suggesting the probabilities favor the bulls. Stop loss should remain at 19.65. ZLAB generated a negative reversal week, having made a new 5-week high but then closing red and near the low of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 43.34 will be seen this week. Nonetheless, this move down is not unexpected given that the stock has been in a major downtrend and without news, the low made 4 weeks ago at 25.74 needs/requires a successful retest of it before new buying of any consequence occurs. A drop below last week's low will put the stock in a positive to accomplish such a retest. On a positive note, the stock had given a failure signal against the bears the previous week when the previous low weekly close at 43.42 was broken to the upside. That failure signal was confirmed this week when the stock closed at 43.51. In fact, if the bulls can generate a green close next Friday, a successful retest of that level will be accomplish, which in fact should bring some strong short-covering and some new buying into the fray. On a daily closing basis, support is found at 42.01, suggesting that level is the downside target for this week. Probabilities do favor the bulls.
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1) SNDL - Averaged long at .905 (2 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at .56. 2) PRTS - Purchased at 7.02. Stop loss at 5.80. Stock closed on Friday at 7.10. 3) SRUTF - Averaged long at .0738 (3 mentions). No stop loss at moment. Stock closed on Friday at .018. 4) BTZI - Averaged long at .0935 (4 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at .026. 5) ZLAB - Averaged long at 71.955 (6 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 43.51. 6) AU - Averaged long at 28.423 (3 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 23.67. 7) NEM - Averaged long at 72.62 (2 mentions). Stop loss now at 70.81. Stock closed on Friday at 82.12. 8) ENG - Averaged long at 3.378 (5 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 1.155. 9) FSLR - Liquidated at 82.72. Averaged long at 69.99. Profit of $6365 per 100 shares (5 mentions). 11) SCCO - Averaged long at 72.51 (3 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 73.83. 12) VET - Purchased at 20.35. Stop loss at 19.65. Stock closed on Friday at 21.44.
Previous Newsletters
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The opinions and commentaries by Mr. De Vito are not a recommendation to buy or sell, but rather
a charting guideline, based on his own knowledge and experience, regarding the stocks he is following or
that are brought to him by others. Mr. De Vito does not presently offer a track record of his trading experiences.
No inference of success and/or failure should be assumed. The
information enclosed above, regarding his background, length of trading, and experience, is correct
but is not meant to suggest, state, or infer any future success in trading, based on his opinions. The information herewith included should only be used by investors who are aware of the risk inherent in securities trading. Mr. De Vito accepts no liability whatsoever for any loss arising from any use of the information and/or comments he supplies. |
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