Issue #758
Mar 27, 2022 | Newsletter
The newsletter with chart analysis for stocks and stock indexes |
Stock Indexes Analysis/Evaluation
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| Bulls Likely Have at least 4 More Days of Rally!
DOW Friday closing price - 34861
The indexes (with the exception of the RUT) all generated follow through to the upside this past week, having closed green. Nonetheless, the original bullish dichotomy between the DOW and NASDAQ returned, with the NAZ moving up 2.3% in price and the DOW moving up only .3%. This dichotomy does suggest that for the time being, the bulls have the edge. The Tech Industry led the way with TSLA rallying 10.4% and AAPL moving up 6.2%. The TSLA rally was not a big surprise given that with Oil prices being so high, electric cars are the "in" thing.
Then again, this rally was not a surprise given that with the Fed announcing their rate decision the previous week (and it being somewhat favorable to the market) and the indexes all breaking some short-term pivotal resistance levels the previous week, a 2-3 week recovery rally was anticipated to happen, with it all starting last week.
The indexes did close in the upper half of the week's trading range and further upside is expected to be seen this week (DOW above 34942, SPX above 4546. NAZ above 14805, and RUT above 2097).
The attention will continue to be on the resistance levels above (given in last week's newsletter) that are as follows: In the DOW, there is some minor resistance at 35091 but then decent up between 35631 and 35824. A break above 35824 would be a bull statement (unlikely to happen under the present fundamental conditions. As such, the index could still rally as much as 900 points above Friday's close. In the SPX, the index does have some intraweek resistance here at 4545, but given that the week's high was 4546 and it is expected to rally more this week, the next level of resistance (short-term pivotal) is found at 4595 that is also unlikely to be broken under the present conditions. As such, the index could rally another 50 points before encountering new and decent selling interest. In the NASDAQ, there is open air up to 15169. The 15193 level is midterm pivotal. It would not be as strong to the upside as perhaps a break in the DOW above 35824 but it would be a short-term game changer as it would likely generate a rally up to 15696. With the index closing on Friday at 14754, another 400+ points could be seen before encountering selling resistance.
Having said all of that, there is one chart problem that will need to be addressed by the bulls, especially considering that there has not yet been a truly bullish change in the fundamental picture. The NASDAQ has rallied 12% from the 10-month low made the previous week at 13020. The rally has been "straight up" as each of the last 10 days, the lows have been higher than the previous day, meaning that no retest of the low has occurred yet. In a chart scenario with no change of the fundamental picture, this is a magnet of consequence. There is one chart obstacle that under these conditions is generally difficult to overcome and that is the 200-day MA. The SPX has broken convincingly the 200-day MA and the DOW is likely to do the same this week as it closed just slightly below that line this week and will likely break it. Nonetheless, in both of these cases, these indexes do show a successful retest of their lows, meaning there is no magnet attached to them. The 200-day MA in the NASDAQ is at 15121 (367 points above Friday's close) and (in addition) the index has a pivotal intraweek resistance at 15196, suggesting quite strongly that area is a brick wall at this time, especially if there is no positive fundamental change. At some point, the index will need to generate a retest of the low (go below a previous week's low) and the farther the index goes up, the bigger the drop down to test the low will be.
This coming week does have a lot of fundamental news coming out, especially next Friday (April 1). On Tuesday though, the Consumer Confidence number comes out. Last month it came out at 110.5. It is expected to come out at 107.5 this month. Anything lower would be a negative. On Thursday, the PCE prices index comes out (a measure of inflation) and therefore and at this time, that report can have an impact. That number is expected to come out at .6% (the same as last month). Last but not least and on Friday, the ISM Index and the Jobs reports come out and those are usually the most important and potentially catalytic reports for the month. Expectations are for 58.3% and 475K respectively.
As such, the index market is likely to continue higher during the first 3-4 days of the week but then face the important reports, which if negative would cause new selling to appear.
Probabilities do not favor any of these reports actually being all that catalytical this week, which in turn means that the charts will be playing a big part. The war on Ukraine has slowed down and most of what is negative (or even potentially positive) for the market is likely all factored in. It is by nature of it being a war in which Oil and Gold do play a strong part of it, a negative to the market. As such, the charts are likely to be closely watched this week. I have given you the pivotal area in the NASDAQ but the SPX also has a pivotal area (at 4595 - 4589 on a daily closing basis) that must be watched, given that it is pivotal. If the bulls can ascertain a confirmed break above that level, there is mostly open air above to 4700 and that will affect the short-term outlook for the market.
Nonetheless, there is one thing that I will mention today (and likely every week for the next 6 weeks). May is a seasonal down month in the market for the indexes and under this scenario, even more so. This is a fact that will be in the trader's minds and likely to color what they do for the next few weeks. It is highly unlikely that any strong buying will occur at this time (at least for the long term) and the bulls will be facing that every day for the near future.
OIL bounced back after two red weekly closes in a row occurred and a 28.4% correction from the intraweek high to the previous week's low happened. Oil did close near the high of the week, suggesting further intraweek upside above last week's high at 116.94 will be seen this week. Oil is facing an important and possibly pivotal week given that the monthly close will occur on Thursday and the weekly close, which is also important, will occur on Friday. For the monthly close, the 113.93 level is very important as it was the rally high monthly close that was seen in February 2011, which occurred after Oil made a new all-time monthly closing high at 140.00 and then proceeded to drop down to 41.68 in the 3 years after that. A close on Thursday above 113.93 will mean that the 11-year old strong resistance at that price has been broken, which in turn would suggest that the all-time monthly closing high at 140.00 would be targeted. What makes 113.93 so important to the weekly chart (on Friday) as well, is that 113.93 was also the previous high weekly close resistance which did get broken 4 weeks ago with the 115.68 high weekly close that the bulls were unable to confirm, given that Oil closed at 109.33 the following week. With Oil having closed on Friday at 112.58, a red weekly close this coming Friday would mean the 115.68 weekly close has been tested successfully (necessary requirement for the chart to suggest that the rally has come to an end) and that would give strong reasons for profit taking to occur and new selling interest to be seen. By the same token, a close on Thursday at 113.93, following by the same close on Friday, would still leave the door open for both bulls and bears, to be decided in April. Believe it or not, the probabilities do favor this latter scenario occurring (close on Thursday and Friday at 113.93 or close to that). What makes the week so important is that a close above 113.93 on both Thursday "and" Friday would be a bullish statement, especially if Oil closes above 115.68 on Friday. This is what the chart traders, computers and algorithms are looking at and that will help them decide, given that it is unlikely that any new fundamental news will come out this week.
DOLLAR generated a green weekly close, much like what happened in Gold and Oil. The green weekly close was generally uneventful since nothing was broken but it does make the previous red weekly close at 98.23 into a short-term pivotal support level, which if broken before a new high weekly close above 99.13 is made, would suggest the rally is over, a least for the short or even the midterm. It is expected that the Dollar will go above last week's intraweek high at 98.96 this week. Nonetheless, if it does that but the recent intraweek high at 99.42 is not broken, it could be a sign that the rally is petering out. On the daily closing chart, there is now a double low at 97.97, which if broken, would give the bears new ammunition. Like with everything else, the economic reports this week are likely to have some impact on the price.
BITCOIN bulls are in a position to generate a mini breakout, if and when Bitcoin closes Sunday night above 42711 (currently at 5:00 pm on Saturday, it is trading at 44430). If that occurs, a new buy signal, as well as a failure signal against the bears, will be generated and that will open the door for a rally up to 50,000 level, which is where the "next" resistance area is found. In looking at the daily closing chart, there is a triple high at 44432, 44442, and 44559 that if broken would generate a buy signal (if confirmed). Based on where Bitcoin is trading now, the probabilities do favor the bulls.
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Stock Analysis/Evaluation
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CHART Outlooks
The market remains in a short-term uptrend that favors the big stocks, as well as Tech Stocks going higher this week. Nonetheless, such a situation continues to favor buying small cap stocks that under this scenario will remain depressed and at undervalued prices.
I did give 3 mentions last week, which two of them were purchased. One of them (GBT) never got close to the desired entry point and at these prices, it is not a buy option this week. The other two that were purchased (PRTS and VNET) were bought and updates given on the Held Stocks area. Both of those stocks are still purchaseable and likely to reach the desired entry point areas this week.
I do have one new mention to give this week. It is in a stock I mentioned a few months ago that was purchased but the trade resulted in a loss. Nonetheless, that stock has now dropped an additional 30%+ and is once again an attractive purchase.
RBLX Friday Closing Price - 47.07
RBLX is the #1 company in the new META universe of Virtual Reality. An area that promises great growth in the future when companies elect to use Virtual Reality in their sales approach to sell their products. The stock got up to 141.60 just 5 months ago but then proceeded to drop 75% in value to a low of 36.04, a level reached the previous week. That 36.04 low was an all-time low (stock has been trading for only 55 weeks) but a positive reversal occurred the previous week, with the stock rallying to 39% from that low to the previous week's high at 50.24. This past week, the stock generated a negative reversal week, having gone above the previous week's high (high last week was 53.00) but then closing red and near the low of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 45.53 will be seen this week.
RBLX chart suggests that if the stock does get below last week's low that it will be the required/needed retest of the low, given the huge downtrend the stock had been in and which the bulls require to see before stepping in to buy such an intangible and yet unproven concept. Simply stated, this is a stock that is likely to be traded based on charts than on fundamentals at this time and until more tangible profitable events (contracts) occur.
Using the intraweek daily chart, RBLX shows support at 43.10 and at 39.51. The probability of reaching the first one is very high and of reaching the second one, it is high but slightly lower probability. The stop loss on this trade will be at 35.65, meaning that the risk per share, will be somewhere between $7.45 to a low of $3.74.
To the upside and on an intraweek basis, RBLX has a minimum objective of 66.34, given that at that price there is an open gap that is likely to be targeted for closure if the bottom has been found (likely) and a recovery rally is to occur. In addition, that level is where the initial low week close support (at 67.34) is found. That is the level that when broken, caused the stock to fall to 36.04.
I do want to warn you that RBLX is a volatile stock, meaning that you either have to have a set order at a price to specific price or be on top of the stock during the day, in order to buy at the desired entry point. The volatility is also a positive, given that the upside objective could be reached in short order (not wait a long time). In fact, the chart suggests that if the stock has found a bottom and is ready to recover, that a rally to the $66 level could occur over the next 4-6 weeks.
Purchase of RBLX at 43.10 and using a stop loss at 35.65 and having a 66.34 objective, will offer a 3.2-1 risk/reward ratio. A purchase of the stock at 39.51 will offer at least a 6-1 risk/reward ratio. My rating on the trade is a 3 (on a scale of 1-5 with 5 being the highest).
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Updates
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| Updates on Held Stocks |
Closed Trades, Open Positions and Stop Loss Changes |
| AU generated a green weekly close and a close in the upper half of the week's trading range, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 25.27 will be seen this week. The green weekly close does take away from whatever ammunition the bears had obtained the previous week and does put the stock into a pivotal week where the economic reports that come out this week are likely to have an impact. The double high on the weekly closing chart at 25.50/25.53 (25.73/25.76 on the daily closing chart) remains an important obstacle for the bulls to overcome. Short-term pivotal daily close support is found at 23.32. Which ever of those two (resistance and support) are broken first, will give an advantage to whatever side wins. Some decision should be made by Friday. ENG did generate a "small" negative reversal week, having gone above the previous week's high but then closing red and near the low of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 1.38 will be seen this week. Nonetheless, the reality is that it was an uneventful week as the stock closed $.02 cents below the previous week's close and nothing was broken in either direction. It seems likely that the traders are waiting to see what the market is going to do this week, given all the important economic reports that are scheduled for this week. The 200-week MA, currently at 1.61, remains the only close by obstacle that is of a pivotal nature. The 200-day MA, currently at 2.01, would be then be the next objective to overcome. To the downside, any daily close below 1.25 would give the bears new ammunition. The probabilities do still favor the bulls slightly. FSLR generated yet another green weekly close (the 5th in a row) and did close near the high of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 80.45 will be seen this week. There is minor intraweek resistance at 81.80 but above that level there is open air to 89.20. There is some "very minor" intraweek support at 75.95 and then pivotal at 70.52. The bulls are presently in control and there doesn't seem to be any "black clouds" on the horizon, unless the Oil market takes a dive. Probabilities favor the bulls. NEM made yet another new all-time weekly closing high and closed in the upper half of the week's trading range, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 80.20 will be seen this week. The green weekly close (and new all-time weekly closing high) means that the previous week's close at 73.96 has become a successful retest of the previous all-time weekly closing high at 73.53. It also means that the 73.53/73.96 level (on a weekly closing basis) has now become the "new and pivotal" support level, which also in turn gives the bulls a level close by they can use to buy more shares with a small risk factor. The chart is very bullish right now with no resistance above until the psychological resistance between $97 and $103 is reached. Probabilities favor the bulls. PLNHF generated a 70% spike up type rally from the previous week's close to last week's high, having gone from 2.07 to 2.94 last week. The range of the rally was mostly on the news that Congress will be considering this coming week or two, the passing of a Marijuana legalization edict for the U.S. Nonetheless and prior to the news, the stock had already broken above the intraweek resistance at 2.70, meaning that the stock was already rallying on its own. In the end though, the bulls were unable to make any kind of a statement, having still closed below the weekly close resistance at 2.62/2.79 (closed at 2.51). The stock did close exactly in the middle of the week's trading range, meaning an equal opportunity to go above last week's high at 2.94, as well as going below last week's low at 2.07. This is likely to be dependent on the bill in Congress, even though the reality, the bill not passing is not likely to be as negative as the bill passing being a positive. Enough positive action in having built a bottom to this downtrend has occurred. On a daily closing basis, a close above 2.70 would clearly tilt the balance to the bulls. There is no close by level to the downside (on the daily closing chart) that would tilt the balance to the bears. PRTS generated (technically) a negative reversal week, having gone above the previous week's high and then closing red and on the low of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 6.88 will be seen this week. Nonetheless, the rally above the previous week's high by only $.04 cents does not make it into a true reversal week. Nonetheless, a new 22-month weekly closing low was made (6.93 vs the previous one 2-weeks before at 7.07) and that is a negative given that 3 weeks ago the 200-week MA was broken to the downside and then the break retested with last week's close at 7.49. As such, this new low weekly close is suggestive that the downtrend continues. On a positive note though, the stock remains above the intraweek low seen 3 weeks ago at 5.90 and if the stock does get below last week's low at 6.88 but does not break that low and then reverses to the upside the following week, a required/needed successful retest of the low will have occurred. In that scenario, new buying interest will be seen. As such, I am planning to add to my purchase around the 6.59 area, using the original stop loss point at 5.80. Probabilities do favor the bears this week but overall, I do believe this stock is bottoming out and a recovery rally is to occur soon. SCCO generated a new 10-month intraweek high and a new 12-month weekly closing high and did close near the high of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 78.72 will be seen this week. The all-time weekly closing high is 79.42 and with the stock having closed at 77.66 on Friday, the bulls are now committed to making a new all-time high this week or face a decent profit taking run down. This is especially true considering that the stock gapped up on Monday (and on the weekly chart) between 74.35 and 74.95 and that gap is an absolute magnet if not followed up with another gap or a new all-time high. On a daily closing basis, the all-time high is at 81.41, meaning that is what the traders will be shooting to reach and break this week. On a very positive note, Monday's gap did create a breakaway/runaway gap formation on the daily chart and presently, a bullish flag formation is in place, with the flagpole being the straight up rally from 67.30 to 79.42 and the flag being the trading seen the past few days down to 75.77. A break of the top of the flag would give an objective of 87.89, to be reached within 6 days after the top of the flag is broken. A stop loss can now be placed at 74.35. Probabilities favor the bulls. SNDL generated a spike up rally, having appreciated 42% in value from the previous week's close to last week's high. The stock closed near the high of the week and further upside above last week's high at .891 is expected to be seen this week. The stock convincingly broke above the 200-day MA, currently at .684, and now has open air above until the .96 level is reached, which is a resistance that is highly midterm pivotal, given that a break of that resistance would offer open air to 1.26. This is a stock with a high level of shorts involved and the news of Congress considering making Marijuana legal, sometime over the next couple of week, could make this stock more double in price in a short period of time if that does occur. The .65-.69 area is now the new support level that should not be broken unless negative news comes out. VNET generated a mixed week, having extended its rally (above last week's spike up rally) with another green close. Nonetheless and in spite of having broken out of a bullish flag formation that called for much higher prices, the stock negated the breakout and did close in the lower half of the week's trading range, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 6.14 will be seen this week. Overall, this is not a negative to the chart as a retest of the 3.51 low was expected to be seen before the bulls stepped in to buy. As such, the action last week was disappointing from the point of view that the bulls don't "yet" have the edge but then again, that was more of a possibility than a probability. The original desired entry point into the trade remains around the 5.00 mark, meaning that if the stock doesn't automatically move higher at the beginning of the week and above last week's high at 7.94 (not expected), the small profits involved should be taken and then look to reenter the trade at the original desired entry point. Otherwise, everything stated in the original mention given last week, remains the same. ZLAB has rallied 46% in value over the past two week, from the low seen 2 weeks ago to the high seen last week. On the daily chart, the stock did generate a failure signal against the bears, having closed above the previous multi-month low daily close at 42.03 on Monday and that failure signal being confirmed by 4 more additional closes above that level the rest of the week. Nonetheless, the bulls failed to make the same kind of a statement on the weekly chart, as a close above 43.42 was needed to be seen on Friday and it closed at 42.31. The stock did close in the lower half of the week's trading range, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 37.58 will be seen this week. Nonetheless, such an event happening would not be considered a negative, given that the stock has been on a 14-month downtrend in which 87% of value has been lost. As such, a retest of the 25.74 low seen 3 weeks ago is required/needed before the bulls step up in a bigger and more concentrated way. Any drop below a previous week's low would accomplish such a goal, as long as no new low occurs and a rally the following week above the previous week's high occurs. Potential downside target on a daily closing basis is 38.23. There is established support at that price. Probabilities do favor the bears this week, at least for some intraweek weakness, but the recent low at 25.74 was likely an extreme downside low that the fundamentals do not support breaking. As such, it would not be surprising if at the end of the week, the stock closes green.
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1) SNDL - Averaged long at .905 (2 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at .812. 2) CVE - Liquidated at 16.01. Averaged long at 15.51. Profit on the trade of $150 per 100 shares (3 mentions). 3) SRUTF - Averaged long at .0738 (3 mentions). No stop loss at moment. Stock closed on Friday at .0204. 4) BTZI - Averaged long at .0935 (4 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at .028. 5) ZLAB - Averaged long at 71.955 (6 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 42.31. 6) AU - Averaged long at 28.423 (3 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 24.15. 7) NEM - Averaged long at 72.62 (2 mentions). Stop loss now at 70.81. Stock closed on Friday at 78.95. 8) ENG - Averaged long at 3.378 (5 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 1.41. 9) DVN - Liquidated at 61.61. Averaged long at 55.56. Profit on the trade of $1208 per 100 shares (2 mentions). 10) FSLR - Averaged long at 69.99 (5 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 79.65. 11) SCCO - Averaged long at 72.51 (3 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 77.66. 12) PLNHF - Purchased at 2.92. No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 2.51. 13) VNET - Purchased at 6.61. No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 6.93.
Previous Newsletters
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The opinions and commentaries by Mr. De Vito are not a recommendation to buy or sell, but rather
a charting guideline, based on his own knowledge and experience, regarding the stocks he is following or
that are brought to him by others. Mr. De Vito does not presently offer a track record of his trading experiences.
No inference of success and/or failure should be assumed. The
information enclosed above, regarding his background, length of trading, and experience, is correct
but is not meant to suggest, state, or infer any future success in trading, based on his opinions. The information herewith included should only be used by investors who are aware of the risk inherent in securities trading. Mr. De Vito accepts no liability whatsoever for any loss arising from any use of the information and/or comments he supplies. |
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