Issue #764
May 8, 2022 | Newsletter
The newsletter with chart analysis for stocks and stock indexes |
Stock Indexes Analysis/Evaluation
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| Some Bounce to Occur?
DOW Friday closing price - 32899
The indexes continued the downtrend, having generated another red weekly close (5th or 6th in a row depending on the index). Nonetheless, the rate of decent has diminished as the DOW and SPX droppped .3% - .2%% and the NASDAQ and the RUT dropped 1.3%. in addition and contrary to the previous week, the bulls were able to generate some recovery on Friday and not close on the low of the week as it did the previous week. In addition and spite of all the selling seen, the bears were unable to generate a break of the pivotal intraweek support at 32272 in the DOW, having seen a low last week at 32449. All the other indexes have broken the same intraweek support but with the DOW not doing so, it does suggest that there is still buying interest in the index market and that some recovery could be expected this week. The amount of red weekly closes in a row has not exceeded 6 weeks over the past 5 years, including in 2020 when the pandemic news hit.
The NASDAQ did have a short-term pivotal weekly close support at 12668 that was not broken on the close on Friday. It does need to be mentioned that it traded below that level for a good portion of the day and was trading below that level with just 20 minutes of trading left but in the end, the bulls were able to close above that support level. In looking at the weekly chart of that support level itself, a rally back up to as high as 13879 could be seen over the next 3-4 weeks. Certainly, it does make sense that before much more downside occurs, a retest of the 13258 level (price at which a 20% drop from the high occurred, giving and official change of trend signal) is likely to occur. Such a retest would occur on a weekly closing basis, meaning that intraweek the index could go higher.
The indexes all closed in the lower half of the week's trading range, suggesting further downside below last week's lows is likely to be seen this week. As such, the DOW could get down to the 32272 level and the NASDAQ to the 12208 level. The SPX does not have any previous intraweek support nearby so there is no clear downside objective target, and the RUT shows the 200-week MA is currently at 1772. It is possible though, that this week will end up being an inside week, meaning that last week's lows do not get broken, given that the charts do suggest a green weekly close will be seen next Friday.
There is one important report this week and that is the CPI report on Wednesday morning. The expected number is 0.2%, which is substantially lower than last month's 1.2%. Then again, the core CPI came out last month at 0.3% and this month's number is expected to come out at 0.4%. It is clear that a lower than expected number would give the bulls ammunition, while higher than expected number would generate the opposite.
The traders seem to be paying attention to the charts at this time given that the they are facing a one-of-a-kind situation that they have no clear parameters with which to clearly assess the situation, especially at these now considered low and oversold prices. As such, I do expect the indexes to follow the charts and close green next Friday.
OIL generated a new 5-week high and closed near the high of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 111.34 will be seen this week. Nonetheless, the most important thing that happened is that a new buy signal was given when Oil closed above 108.20 on the daily closing chart and above 106.95 on the weekly chart. A triangle formation was broken to the upside that suggest that the recent high at 130.50 will be tested and slight broken as the formation gives a $134 objective. Evidently, those two levels of resistance that got broken are now support, meaning that the bulls need to maintain closed above those levels and continue to spur upward momentum or face a failure of the breakout.
DOLLAR continued its upward movement having yet made another new all-time intraweek and weekly closing high. It closed near the high of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 104.09 will be seen this week. The Dollar is now showing intraweek support at 102.35, which if broken would suggest the run is over. Probabilities continue to favor the bulls.
BITCOIN continued to show weakness as it is now likely to end up the week with the 6th red weekly close in a row and a drop from the recent 48159 high of 29% in value. There is daily "and" weekly close support is at 35103 and presently (8:00am Sunday), it is trading at 34807, suggesting that if the bulls cannot rally it in the next 16 hours, a new sell signal of some consequence will occur. On an intraweek basis, the pivotal support is at 32981 and if that level is broken, it could be the "first domino" to fall in what could end up being a drop down to the 20000 level. Intraweek resistance is now found at 39996, which if broken would suggest the correction is over and that at least a bottom to this recent move down has been found for now. Probabilities slightly favor the bears.
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Stock Analysis/Evaluation
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CHART Outlooks
I have no mentions this week at this time given that the probabilities slightly favor the bulls this week but the recen mood of the market is fear and liquidation due to the confirmed weakness and breaks of pivotal support. This does not mean that I won't be buying this week but these purchases cannot be anticipated in advance at this time. Simply stated, the bulls (and the charts) need to show that there is interest in buying for a small recovery rally. If that is shown during the week, I will give mentions in the message board.
On the other side of the coin, I am likely to buy additional shares of PRTS (see under held stock comments) given that the stock received a very good earnings report this past week, suggesting the company is likely to outperform the index market for the next few months. If the stock gets down to the desired entry point, I will purchase additional shares.
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Updates
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| Updates on Held Stocks |
Closed Trades, Open Positions and Stop Loss Changes |
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AM was able to generate a green weekly close and near the high of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 10.86 will be seen this week. The green weekly close means that the previous week's intraweek low at 9.81 has now become a successful retest of the 200-week MA, currently at 9.60. The stock has been in a well-defined uptrend for the past 26 months and the recent action has confirmed the uptrend remains intact and also suggests that the previous week's low at 9.81 is the new pivotal support. As such, the stop loss on the trade can now be moved up to 9.26. Short-term pivotal resistance is found at last week's high at 10.86, which if broken would show open air above to 11.30. A break above the 7-month high at 10.71 would open the door for reaching the upside objective of the up channel, which is at 12.86. Probabilities favor the bulls. AU generated a negative reversal week, having gone above the previous week's high and then closing below the previous week's low and on the low of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 19.00 will be seen this week. This move down and close on the low of the week was especially "head scratching" given that Gold actually rallied at the end of the week and did generate what could be a low for this correction. Nonetheless, the chart of the stock has not yet turned bearish as the stock did get down to the 200-week MA, currently 19.21 (closed at 19.22) and that is a line that is unlikely to be broken if Gold does not break its support as well. Another probable positive is that the stock did gap down on Friday between 19.72 and 19.59 and that is not a gap that is supported by news, and therefore likely to be closed. On a negative note though, the stock did close below the 200-day MA, currently at 19.81, the break of that line for the first time since February does suggest the this recent uptrend that resulted in a high of 26.96 is over for now. Upside objective now is a rally back up to the 21.80-22.47 area where decent selling interest will be found unless Gold can resume its uptrend. Probabilities do favor the bulls this week. CALM made a new 5-week low and closed on the low of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 52.12 will be seen. A new sell signal was given on the daily chart, having broken the established daily close support at 53.20, which now will become resistance on a daily closing basis. Pivotal resistance is now found at 55.25. which if broken would suggest that the correction/downtrend is over. The next support level on both the daily and weekly closing charts is at the $50 demilitarized zone (49.70-50.30). A break of that level would open the door for drop to 46.45. Due to the assumption that some form of rally will occur in the index market this week, it is likely that the 53.20 level will be seen at some point. Nonetheless, the weekly close in the stock was worse than that of the indexes, meaning that a drop down to $50 this week is a good possibility. It does seem likely that the stock is going to be in a trading range between $45 and $55 for the next few weeks or couple of months, as such, it can be traded within that range. Probabilities favor the bears this week. ENG generated an inside week with an uneventful close. The company reported earnings on Thursday and they were very slightly less than expected causing the stock to fall 21% in value from the high seen on Wednesday. Nonetheless, the end result was not indicative of any specific direction from here. The stock did generate a red close, meaning that the potential breakout seen last week was invalidated and the stock remains in a sideways trading market. On a possible positive note, Oil did generate a mini breakout and further upside is expected to be seen, meaning that clear energy stocks should benefit. The same chart evaluation given last week remains in place. Upside target area for the short term is the 200-week MA, currently at 1.61. Daily and weekly close support is found at 1.10 and given that the stock closed at 1.18 and did not break that support in spite of the earnings report being slightly less than expected, the probabilities favor the bulls. Target for the upside to be reached within the next 3-6 weeks is the 200-day MA, currently at 1.77. Based on the price, the fundamentals of the company, the problems in the overall market and the chart picture, ENG is a stock that the bulls are likely to key on for a 37% profit over the next 3-6 weeks. FSLR generated a negative reversal week, having gone above the previous week's high but then closing red and near the low of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 71.25 will be seen this week. The stock remains in a precarious situation due to the selloff in the index market but the fact that Oil seems to be heading higher should be supportive to the stock. The stock remains above the 200-week MA, currently at 67.80 and no support was broken on the chart this past week, meaning that if the index market is able to generate a small recovery, the stock should outpace to the upside other stocks. Last week's high at 78.96 is now short-term pivotal resistance. If broken, a rally to the $89-$90 would be the objective. An intraweek break of 69.56 would further weaken the chart. Probabilities slightly favor the bulls. NEM generated a positive reversal week, having made a new 9-week intraweek low but then closing green and in the upper half of the week's trading range, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 74.37 will be seen this week. The chart is fully formed and presently favoring the bears given that a clear inverted "flag" formation is now in place on the daily chart. The flagpole is the big drop that occurred over a 4-day period of time from 86.37 to 70.60 and the flag is the trading range seen the past 9 days between 74.99 and 70.35. A break below 70.35 would give a 59.22 objective. On the opposite side, a break above 74.99 would negate the formation and give an upside 80.75 objective. The stock has been the strong one among Gold stocks and it would require Gold to go lower in order for the bearish flag formation to be triggered, meaning that the probabilities do favor the bulls slightly. PLNHF made a new 22-month intraweek and weekly closing close but the bulls were able to rally to close slightly in the upper half of the week's trading range, suggesting a slightly higher probability of going above last week's high at 1.89 than below last week's low at 1.54. The stock does show some intraweek support around the 1.57 area that should hold up and from which a chart rally up to 2.00 is likely to occur. The chart suggests the stock will trade within the 1.55 to 2.00 range for the next 3-6 weeks. A break of either level would be short-term indicative. PRTS reported earnings and they were much better than anticipated, causing the stock to gap up and rally 50% in value intraweek from the previous week's close. The stock fell back from the 9.00 high seen last week to close slightly above the 200-week MA, currently at 7.58 (closed at 7.89) but still in the upper half of the week's trading range, suggesting further upside above last week's high will be seen this week. The stock made a 12-week high and generated buy signals on both the daily and weekly closing basis that strongly suggests that the bottom to this downtrend has now been set at 5.90 and that a recovery rally is to occur. The stock now shows a double bottom at 5.90/5.97 that when added to the gap and the buy signals given, strongly suggests that a bottom is now in place. A drop back down to the 7.54 level should be seen this week, given that was the daily close breakout that brought about the short covering that took the stock to the 9.00 level. Adding positions at that price should be considered. To the upside, the chart objective is the 200-day MA, currently at 12.15. Nonetheless, there is intraweek resistance at the $10 demilitarized zone that will likely stop temporarily the advance, meaning that reaching the 200-day MA may not occur for several weeks or even a couple of months. On a daily closing basis, there is now support at 7.56 and at 6.70. A close below 6.70 would erase the value attained due to the better than expected earning report, meaning that additional purchases can be made using a 6.65 stop loss (on a daily closing basis. Probabilities favor the bulls. SCCO generated a negative reversal week, having gone above last week's high (by $.03 cents) and then closing below last week's low and near the low of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 59.89 will be seen this week. A new sell signal was generated on the daily closing chart, having closed on Friday below the 4-month daily closing low at 61.87 (closed at 61.41). Nonetheless, the stock did close on the high of the day on Friday, suggesting the first course of business for the week will be to the upside above Friday's high at 61.84 and if the stock does that and closes above 61.87 on Monday, the sell signal will be negated. A weekly close next Friday above 62.57 will also negate a sell signal given the previous week on the weekly closing chart. The stock did generate a gap down on the weekly chart (between 65.53 and 65.16) 2 weeks ago but there was no negative news to the company (the drop was commodity related), suggesting this gap is a magnet to be closed soon. This is especially true given that there is a mountain of support between the $60 and $61 level. The 200-day MA is currently at 64.63 and given that the high for last week was 65.19, it does mean that the gap remains a magnet to the upside. The report that the traders will be waiting for is the CPI number that comes out on Wednesday 5/11. That number is likely to be the deciding factor on what the stock is going to do for the next 2-3 months. The Fed hike that was announced and that came out as expected is supportive to the stock. Any daily close below 60.79 would give the bears additional ammunition. VET negated last week's break of weekly close support, having closed above the previous low weekly close at 19.97 (closed at 21.67). The stock close near the high of the week and further upside above last week's high at 22.23 is expected to be seen this week. Intraweek resistance is found at 23.57 and 23.71 and pivotal at 23.93. To the downside and on a daily closing basis, support is found at 20.27, at 19.78 and pivotal at 19.27. Chart suggests that a drop down to 20.27 could occur but overall and with the failure signal against the bulls given and the stock still in a long term uptrend, probabilities favor the bulls continuing higher and breaking above the 23.93 level sometime in the next 1-3 weeks. VNET generated an uneventful week though a green weekly close occurred. The stock closed on the lower half of the week's trading range, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 5.92 will be seen this week but there are no levels of pivotal support close by that are at risk of being broken, suggesting that another generally uneventful week will occur this week. In using the daily closing chart, there is short term pivotal resistance at 6.91 that if broken would give the bulls the edge and then at 7.33, which if broken, would give the bulls midterm control. To the downside and also using the daily closing chart, there is support at 5.84, at 5.40 and negatively pivotal at 5.21. The probabilities slightly favor the bulls though a drop down to 5.84 is likely to be seen before new buying interest appears. ZLAB made a new 35-month low weekly close and closed on the low of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 28.08 will be seen this week. Nonetheless, neither the 35-month low intraweek low at 25.74 nor the 25-month low daily close at 27.77 were broken, which does leave the chart open for the bulls to come back in and buy this week. The stock did have a downside magnet (an open gap at 30.14) that once the support at 43.32 was broken was likely to be reached. That gap was closed on Friday and now the stock is facing what could be an important retest of the 27.77 daily closing low and 25.74 intraweek low. The other main reason the stock fell on Friday was that all health industry stocks were under sell pressure last week but contrary to ZLAB, they did recover at the end of the day, suggesting the stock will do the same this week. The other negative to the stock itself is that Guggenheim lowered their upside objective from $134 to $85, which did give some ammunition to the bears on a short-term basis. By the same token, with the stock trading at $28, the lowering of the objective still means that the stock is 67% "below" that target and that should bring in buying interest if the overall market sees a respite in its selling interest. Any daily close below 27.77 would be a negative now. I do believe that the stock will generate a green weekly close next week. If that does occur, there is open air to the $40 level, meaning that objective could be reached this week.
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1) SNDL - Averaged long at .905 (2 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at .4545. 2) PRTS - Purchased at 7.02. Stop loss now at 5.65. Stock closed on Friday at 7.89. 3) SRUTF - Averaged long at .0738 (3 mentions). No stop loss at moment. Stock closed on Friday at .0235. 4) BTZI - Averaged long at .0935 (4 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at .0155. 5) ZLAB - Averaged long at 71.955 (6 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 28.55. 6) AU - Purchased at 19.47. Averaged long at 26.184 (4 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 19.22. 7) NEM - Averaged long at 72.133 (3 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 72.87. 8) ENG - Averaged long at 3.378 (5 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 1.18. 9) VET - Averaged long at 19.08 (2 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 21.30. 10) VNET - Averaged long at 5.32. No stop loss now at 4.98. Stock closed on Friday at 6.20. 11) AAPL - Purchased at 158.98. Liquidated at 156.49. Loss on the trade of $239 per 100 shares. 12) FSLR - Purchased at 69.93. No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 72.14. 13) SCCO - Purchased at 63.48. No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 61.41. 14) QQQ - Pirchased at 314.28. Liquidated at 313.48. Loss on the trade of $80 per 100 shares. 15) AMZN - Purchased at 2394.67 (10 shares). Liquidated at 2334.74. Loss on the trade of $599.
Previous Newsletters
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The opinions and commentaries by Mr. De Vito are not a recommendation to buy or sell, but rather
a charting guideline, based on his own knowledge and experience, regarding the stocks he is following or
that are brought to him by others. Mr. De Vito does not presently offer a track record of his trading experiences.
No inference of success and/or failure should be assumed. The
information enclosed above, regarding his background, length of trading, and experience, is correct
but is not meant to suggest, state, or infer any future success in trading, based on his opinions. The information herewith included should only be used by investors who are aware of the risk inherent in securities trading. Mr. De Vito accepts no liability whatsoever for any loss arising from any use of the information and/or comments he supplies. |
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