Issue #761
April 17, 2022 | Newsletter
The newsletter with chart analysis for stocks and stock indexes |
Stock Indexes Analysis/Evaluation
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| Bears in Short-Term Control. How Much they can Accomplish is the Question.
DOW Friday closing price - 34451
All indexes, with the exception of the RUT, generated a red weekly close and with the exception of the DOW, the SPX and the NASDAQ closed on the low of the week. All these red-closing indexes are expected to go below last week's lows this week (DOW at 34102, SPX at 4381 and the NAZ at 13282).
The NASDAQ remains the key index and with it having gapped down last Monday, if the same occurs this Monday, a breakaway/runaway gap will occur on the weekly chart. Already that formation is established on the daily chart but if it happens on the weekly chart, it will have a lot more meaning.
There is a short-term pivotal support in the NASDAQ at 13724 (169 points lower than Friday's close), which if broken would show open air below to the 13000 level and if the intraweek support at the 13000 demilitarized zone is broken, the index will get into a downtrend of note. As it is, any weekly close below 13258 will generate a 20% correction from the all-time high and that would be an "official" end to the 13-year bull trend and mean that a downtrend has begun.
Once again, the traders will be keying on the charts, given that there are no economic reports of consequence due out this week. In the earnings area and with the exception of NFLX, the reports are mostly DOW stocks that are generally not catalytic.
To the upside, the 14307 area NASDAQ remains a pivotal resistance area. Closure of the gap on the daily/weekly chart at that price would likely generate enough upside to close the breakaway gap at 14782.
The RUT once again outperformed the other indexes. The index generated a positive reversal week, having made a new 4-week low and then closing green and in the upper half of the week's trading range, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 2034 will be seen this week. Evidently, the RUT will play an important role in what the overall market does this week, given that a major breakdown in the NASDAQ would likely affect all indexes. Nonetheless, if the RUT rallies and the NASDAQ holds the 13724 level, the indexes are likely to rally going into the latter part of the week. From that perspective, this week is pivotal.
In looking at all index charts, it seems that the most likely outlook is for the NASDAQ to show weakness this week and break the 13724 level and head down to the 13258 level where the 20% correction is in play. The SPX is likely to get down to at least 4278 and possibly as low as 4222. The DOW is likely to head lower as well but be supported by earning reports that are not much lower than expected (if not better than expected). This all means that this week will be a negative week but not likely a "back breaker". The traders are likely to wait for the earnings reports on the big 4 other NASDAQ stocks that report the following week. That is the most likely scenario this week.
OIL generated a positive reversal week, having made a new 7-week intraweek low and then going above and closing above the previous week's high at 105.59 (closed at 106.95). Oil closed on the high of the week and further intraweek upside above last week's high at 107.64 is expected to be seen this week. Nonetheless, Oil is now in an area of decent (and previously copious) weekly and monthly close resistance area at 107.65 that is not only recent but goes back to 2011 where that area was a resistance area that held up for 9 months. In looking at all charts (daily, weekly and monthly), Oil remains in a bullish scenario but all charts suggest that "at this time", Oil is likely to do some backing and filling action. The daily chart is in the process of building a bullish triangle, which should find daily close resistance at 107.65 that will generate a fall back to the $98 level. After the triangle is fully built, the breakout or breakdown levels will be clearly shown thereafter. The weekly closing chart suggests that an $100-$108 level is the present trading range according to the action seen the previous 7 weeks, and the Monthly closing chart is showing a straight up move from the $66 level to the high seen now, but finds copious and decent resistance around the $107 level. As such, further upside from here this week, is likely to find selling interest, which could end up with a red weekly close next Friday. Any daily close above 114.93 or a weekly close above 113.93 would change the chart outlook. Probabilities slightly favor the bears this week.
DOLLAR reached the next level of intraweek and weekly close resistance between 100.40-100.93, having gotten up to 100.76 and closing at 100.32. The Dollar did close near the high of the week and further upside above last week's high at 100.76 is expected to be seen this week but the bulls are unlikely to break this area of resistance until after the next FOMC meeting on May 4th. As such, the Dollar should generate a red weekly close this coming Friday. On a weekly closing basis, the 99.08 level is support at this time. The probabilities slightly favor the bears this week for a short-term and small correction. Any intraweek break above 100.93, following by a weekly closing high above 100.56 would mean this chart analysis is wrong.
BITCOIN is going to generate a 2nd red weekly close in a row and will close near the low of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 39274 will be seen this week. Bitcoin finds itself under some sell pressure, with the bulls having failed to follow through on the mini breakout that occurred the 2 weeks ago. Pivotal intraweek support is found at 37570, which if broken would generate new selling interest. Pivotal intraweek resistance is now found at 41540. Nonetheless, Bitcoin traded mostly sideways this past week and the probabilities do not favor a breakout or a breakdown this week (they favor more of the same as seen this past week). I have no idea what fundamental news could come out that would be either a negative or a positive but the chart does suggest that for the next 2 weeks, Bitcoin will do nothing and that it will go below this month's low next month but then likely end up having a positive reversal month in May (lower lows than April but then a green monthly close in May).
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Stock Analysis/Evaluation
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CHART Outlooks
The bears presently have the edge and it is unlikely to change much at this time. Nonetheless, the door is still open for some recovery rally starting at some point this week and continuing for the next 3 weeks (until May).
The same mentions given last week are being given again this week though one of the mentions has been deleted given that the fundamental picture changed this past week.
PURCHASES
RBLX Friday Closing Price - 42.36
RBLX has generated 4 red weekly closes in a row but the all-time low at 36.03, and from which a major positive reversal occurred, has not been reached or even neared, meaning that the probabilities of a major bottom having been found continue to rise every week. The stock represents the #1 company in the new META universe of Virtual Reality. An area that promises great growth in the future when companies elect to use Virtual Reality in their sales approach to sell their products. The stock got up to 141.60 just 5 months ago but then proceeded to drop 75% in value to a low of 36.04, a level reached the previous week. That 36.04 low was an all-time low (stock has been trading for only 57 weeks) but a positive reversal occurred 5 weeks ago, with the stock rallying to 39% from that low to the previous week's high at 50.24.
RBLX closed near the low of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 40.96 will be seen this week.
RBLX chart suggests that if the stock does get below last week's low and gets down to the $40 level, that it could end up being the required/needed retest of the low, if and when the stock then goes above this week's high the following week. Given the huge downtrend the stock had been in, and which the bulls require to see a successful retest of that low before stepping in to buy such an intangible and yet unproven concept, the fact that the stock has generated 4 red weekly closes in a row (and is still 15% from reaching the recent low), does suggest that this stock is now a buying area.
Using the intraweek daily chart, RBLX shows support at 39.51. Having gotten down to 42.55 and closing near the low of the week, getting down to the $40 level seems to be a high probability given that the indexes are likely to be under sell pressure this week. The stop loss on this trade will be at 35.65, meaning that the risk per share, will be somewhere around $3.74 per share.
To the upside and on an intraweek basis, RBLX has a minimum objective of 66.34, given that at that price there is an open gap that is likely to be targeted for closure if the bottom has been found (likely) and a recovery rally is to occur. In addition, that level is where the initial low week close support (at 67.34) is found. That is the level that when broken, caused the stock to fall to 36.04.
I do want to warn you that RBLX is a volatile stock, meaning that you either have to have a set order at a price to specific price or be on top of the stock during the day, in order to buy at the desired entry point. The volatility is also a positive, given that the upside objective could be reached in short order (not wait a long time. In fact, the chart suggests that if the stock has found a bottom and is ready to recover, that a rally to the $66 level could occur over the next 4-6 weeks.
Purchase of RBLX below 40.00 and using a stop loss at 35.65 and having a 66.34 objective, will offer a 6-1 risk/reward ratio. My rating on the trade is a 3.25 (on a scale of 1-5 with 5 being the highest).
FSLR Friday Closing Price - 78.12
FSLR was a mention that was liquidated 2 weeks ago at a good profit. The positions held were liquidated after a support level got broken, due to the fact the company received a downgrade by a well-known rating company. The rating company gave a downside target of $65-$75.
FSLR closed last week in the lower half of the week's trading range, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 76.25 will be seen this week. In looking at the weekly chart, there is intraweek support at 73.91, at 70.52, at 67.71 and long term pivotal at 61.24. The 200-week MA is currently at 67.58 and highly unlikely to get broken on a weekly closing basis.
From a fundamental point of view, FSLR has overall strong support due to the high cost of Oil and the strong demand for green energy products. In addition, the company is #1 in the industry and has a well-established track record of success. As such, dips as is being seen now, are highly purchaseable.
From a chart point of view, FSLR made a new 16-month low at 61.24 in February of this year and then promptly rallied back up to 86.31, which was in effect a 41% rally (meaning an official end to the downtrend). Nonetheless, during this rally there was only one successful retest of the low when a drop below the previous week's low occurred (the time it dropped down to 70.52. Then again, the retest of the low was not the kind of a retest that established convincingly a successful retest as it came on a week that was a positive reversal week, likely due to short-covering. As such, a stronger retest of the low based on weakness being met with clear support buying area is needed.
Using the weekly closing chart, a drop down to 72.58 is highly likely to be seen. Using the daily closing chart, a drop down to the $70 demilitarized zone also has a decent probability of occurring, meaning that the desired entry point into this trade is between $70 and $72.60 area.
The upside objective remains the $89-$90 level. That was the objective on the previous mention and it remains highly viable. Nonetheless, on the previous mention the $110 level was a possibility, whereas right now that objective is not likely to be seen unless the fundamental picture changes.
The stop loss for this trade will be at 67.27 based on a daily close. Meaning that purchasing the stock at 72.59, using a 67.27 stop loss and having a $90 objective, offers a 3-1 risk/reward ratio. Evidently, if the purchase is done near the $70 level, the risk reward ratio will climb to as much as 7-1. My rating on the trade is a high one at 4.25 (on a scale of 1-5 with 5 being the highest).
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Updates
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| Updates on Held Stocks |
Closed Trades, Open Positions and Stop Loss Changes |
| AAPL generated another red weekly close (3rd in a row) and closed on the low of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 165.04 will be seen this week. The stock had begun to generate a recovery, having rallied 3.3% from Monday's low to Thursday's high but the bulls were unable to produce any further upside and the stock generated a negative reversal day on Thursday, having made a new 4-day high and reversing to make a new 17-day low. The action is strongly bearish for the short term, especially considering that there is no support on the daily and weekly chart until the 154.70 level is reached. There is "some" minor support on the 60-minute intraday chart at 161.97 but even on that chart, if that level is broken, there is open air until 154.70 reached. To the upside, the 171.04 level is now short-term pivotal resistance. AU had another uneventful week, having traded inside the previous weeks' trading range and closing just $.01 cents above the previous week's close. Nonetheless, the uneventful action that has been seen the past 5 weeks is worrisome, given that during that same period of time, Gold has rallied $45 in value. Having said that though, the chart maintains a positive outlook that suggests a higher probability of a rally than a drop in price. Short-term pivotal intraweek resistance is found at 24.41 and the same as far as support at 22.48. A break of either of those levels would suggest that a $2.50-$3 move will occur in whatever direction is broken. Probabilities do favor the bulls. ENG generated a positive reversal week, having made a new 7-week intraweek low but then closing green and in the upper half of the week's trading range, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 1.23 will be seen this week. Nonetheless, no resistance levels were broken or even close to be reached, meaning that the week was more of a "pause" in the selling interest than anything else. On a daily closing basis, there are 2 levels to watch for clues as to what is to happen short-term. A daily close above 1.25 would generate a failure signal against the bears that would give the bulls some new ammunition, while a close below 1.06 would do the exact opposite. Neither side has an advantage this week. NEM continued its strong uptrend, having made a new all-time intraweek and weekly closing high and closing near the high of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 85.29 will be seen this week. The company has been outperforming Gold and all other Gold stocks and with Gold also leaning to the upside this week, the probabilities favor the bulls for more upside. As far as intraweek support is concerned, there is some new intraweek support at 81.56, which if broken would suggest the rally is pausing. There is a bit more short-term pivotal support at 79.16 that if broken would suggest a small correction is occurring and that a top to this rally has been found, for at least a few weeks. Otherwise, the bulls remain in full control. PLNHF made a new 3-week intraweek and weekly closing low but the stock rallied enough to close slightly in the upper half of the week's trading range, suggesting a slightly higher probability of going above last week's high at 2.46 than below last week's low at 2.10. If that does occur, it will mean that the 1.88 low has gotten the needed/required retest of that low and that should bring in new buying interest. For the time being though, the stock does not seem to be in a position to do anything of note, meaning that for the next couple of weeks, it is likely to trade sideways with perhaps a slight bias to the upside. The 2.94 level and the 1.88 level are pivotal for the midterm outlook. Whichever of those get broken will determine the outlook for at least the next 3 months. Probabilities slightly favor the bulls this week. PRTS did follow through to the upside this past week after the previous week's positive reversal week. Nonetheless, the bulls were only able to get back up to the 200-week MA (currently at 7.50) having gone up to 7.59 and then turning around to close red and near the low of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 6.90 will be seen this week. As such, the bears remain with the edge as the chart shows that nothing has been decided, as to the short term of the stock. It is evident that the bulls are trying to build a bottom but that more successful building is required before a stronger attempt to generate a mini breakout can occur. Some intraweek support is found at 6.82 and at 6.60 that needs to hold up this week, given that a break of the 6.49 level would give a new edge to the bears. On the opposite side, last week's high at 7.59 is now short-term pivotal resistance, which if broken, would suggest that a bottom has been built. Probabilities favor another week of backing and filling with 6.82 as the downside target and 7.50 as the upside target. RBLX continued to go lower as the stock generated the 4th red weekly close in a row and once again closed in the lower half of the week's trading range, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 40.86 is expected to be seen. Nonetheless, the stock did generate a 14.5% rally from the low of the week (before turning around to generate a red weekly close), suggesting that there is some buying interest in this area. On the mention given last week, the desired entry point into the trade was the $40 demilitarized zone, and that is likely to be the area that the stock will drop down to this week before new buying is seen. As such, you can add positions there or liquidate on Monday the positions bought this week at 41.92 for a small profit and buy them back around the $40 level. Otherwise, everything that was stated in the mention last week remains the same. Nonetheless, last week's high at 46.79 is now the new pivot point resistance. VET generated a positive reversal week, having gone below the previous week's low and then closing green and near the high of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 22.01 will be seen this week. The stock has now made known that the 20.00 area is now support, having made a low 4 weeks ago at 20.00, the previous week at 20.03 and last week at 20.01. With the stock in a clear uptrend and the past 5 weeks in a correction, it now seems likely that the bulls will attempt to resume the uptrend. Short-term pivotal resistance is found at 22.95. With Oil presently on a rally, the bulls have a chance to breakout this week. ZLAB generated a positive reversal week, having gone below the previous week's low and then closing green and near the high of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 45.19 will be seen this week. If that does occur, last week's low at 40.96 will become the required/needed retest of the 25.74 low made 5 weeks ago. One additional positive is that the established intraweek support that needed to hold up for the bulls to get their edge back sooner (rather than later) was at 39.75 and yet the bears failed to get the stock down to that level, suggesting that there is more buying interest being shown than expected. Pivotal resistance that will confirm that the retest of the low has occurred is at 50.05. A break of that level will likely generated the beginning of a short-covering rally of note. Support is now found at 40.96 and still at 39.75. Probabilities favor the bulls.
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1) SNDL - Averaged long at .905 (2 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at .5305. 2) PRTS - Purchased at 7.02. Stop loss at 5.80. Stock closed on Friday at 7.07. 3) SRUTF - Averaged long at .0738 (3 mentions). No stop loss at moment. Stock closed on Friday at .0164. 4) BTZI - Averaged long at .0935 (4 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at .0223. 5) ZLAB - Averaged long at 71.955 (6 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 44.41. 6) AU - Averaged long at 28.423 (3 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 23.68. 7) NEM - Averaged long at 72.62 (2 mentions). Stop loss now at 70.81. Stock closed on Friday at 84.77. 8) ENG - Averaged long at 3.378 (5 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 1.18. 9) SCCO - Liquidated at 75.40. Averaged long at 72.51. Profit on the trade of $867 per 100 shares (3 mentions). 10) VET - Purchased at 20.35. Stop loss at 19.65. Stock closed on Friday at 21.79. 11) RBLX - Purchased at 41.92. Stop loss at 35.94. Closed on Friday at 42.36. 12) AAPL - Shorted at 178.04. Stop loss now at 171.27. Stock closed on Friday at 165.29. 13) AAPL - Purchased at 170.67. Liquidated at 171.06. Profit on the trade of $30 per 100 shares.
Previous Newsletters
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The opinions and commentaries by Mr. De Vito are not a recommendation to buy or sell, but rather
a charting guideline, based on his own knowledge and experience, regarding the stocks he is following or
that are brought to him by others. Mr. De Vito does not presently offer a track record of his trading experiences.
No inference of success and/or failure should be assumed. The
information enclosed above, regarding his background, length of trading, and experience, is correct
but is not meant to suggest, state, or infer any future success in trading, based on his opinions. The information herewith included should only be used by investors who are aware of the risk inherent in securities trading. Mr. De Vito accepts no liability whatsoever for any loss arising from any use of the information and/or comments he supplies. |
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