Issue #765
May 15, 2022
The Oasis

Newsletter


The newsletter with chart analysis for stocks and stock indexes

Stock Indexes Analysis/Evaluation


Panic Selling Over? It Appears so!

DOW Friday closing price - 32196
SPX Friday closing price - 4023
NASDAQ Friday closing price - 12387
RUT Friday closing price - 1792

The DOW and SPX made new 14-month lows and the NASDAQ and the RUT made new 18 month lows and across the board all support levels of any consequence were broken. Nonetheless, the bulls were able to shrug off the panic selling to generate a recovery rally in the last 2 days of the week to close in the upper half of the week's trading range, opening the door for a spike low to this recent down draft having been made. The bulls were helped when two of the main stocks in the market (AAPL and AMZN) did get down to decent and established support levels that held up. In addition, the SPX got down 19.7% from its all-time intraweek high (just short of a 20% correction from the high) and that too generated some buying interest. Those two things put together were enough to generate some bargain basement buying and put a stop to the selling interest.

The indexes closed in the upper half of the week's trading range, suggesting further upside above last week's highs will be seen this week (DOW above 32752, SPX above 4081, NASDAQ above 12542 and RUT above 1833). If that does occur, last week's lows will all become spike lows that should generate some additional recovery buying. Nonetheless and having said that, the bulls are not yet anywhere near levels that could would suggest the overall downtrend is over, meaning that this potential recovery rally in the downtrend is likely to just be a pause (a small rally peak) before resuming the downtrend. Bottom line is that the fundamentals presently in place are negative and there are no economic or earnings reports scheduled for at least the next 3 weeks that can change that scenario.

The indexes have now generated 6 red weeks in a row (in the case of the DOW, it is 7 red weeks in a row) and as such are oversold and due for some respite. As such, this coming week should offer some upside movement and a green weekly close.

The minimum upside objectives of a recovery rally based on a daily close are as follows: DOW at 32632, SPX 4131, NASDAQ at 12854 and RUT at 1864. These "minimum" upside objectives are anywhere from a low of 1.6% from Friday's close (DOW) to as much as 4% above Friday's closes (NAZ and RUT). Further upside above these levels is possible but these upside objective are the most recent daily close supports that when broken generated the recent move down. As such, a retest of those levels is a high probability. These levels are the upside objectives for this week.

On a negative note, this is still the middle of May and the seasonal downturn associated with this month remains in place, meaning that the risk of further downside remains viable more so than reaching upside objectives. Simply stated, any piece of negative news would bring in the selling interest again.

As far as to the downside is concerned, last week's lows (DOW at 31862, SPX at 3963, and NASDAQ at 12069) should not be broken this week. If they are broken, the bulls will once again be in a precarious situation where the bears could gain full control again and stimulate further downside.

Ultimately, the lows seen last week are likely to be retested at some point in time over the next 3-6 weeks. Nonetheless, the bulls have to make some form of statement this week in order for the required/needed retest to have a better opportunity of being a retest rather than continuation of the downtrend. As such, the more of a rally that is seen at this time, the better the chances will be that a bottom to this move down (not just a temporary one) has been found. This means, the bulls need to make this week an up week. No ifs, ands, or buts about it. It is difficult to anticipate at this time what the probabilities of that happening are.


GOLD has now given up 9% of value over the past 5 weeks and has totally erased the gains seen in February. Simply stated, Gold is back to where it was trading at the end of January. This has happened in spite of the fact that the annualized rate of inflation has risen to 8.5% whereas it was 7.4% at the end of January. This of course suggests that the traders do feel comfortable with what the Fed is now doing to combat inflation. Gold is now trading in an area of support between $1775 and $1835 that lasted 8 months (between July 2021 and February 2022) and as such, is an area very unlikely to break until the actual actions by the Fed are proven to be enough to stop the inflation growth (or not). That will not be known for at least another 2-3 months if not longer. Nonetheless, economic analysts in general believe that they are "not sufficient". What does this mean? It means that at this level, there is likely to be more buying interest than selling interest. Gold closed near the low of the week and further downside below last week's low at $1797 is expected to be seen. There is intraweek support at $1788 and short-term pivotal (but minor in strength) at $1778. The probabilities favor Gold generating a positive reversal week this week with a potential (maybe even probable) upside objective of $1833 and possibly as high as $1854. A break below $1778 would change the short-term outlook. Probable trading range for the week is $1788-$1833.

OIL generated a new 10-week weekly closing high and closed near the high of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 110.64 will be seen this week. Oil has continued to see high volatility as the trading range last week was $12.44. In fact, the smallest weekly trading range in the last 13 weeks was 5 weeks ago when it was only $9.11 and that was the lowest trading range seen since the 2nd week of February. As such, volatility is likely to once again be seen this week. Short-term pivotal resistance is found at the high seen 2 weeks ago at 111.37. Further resistance is found at 116.64 and then open air to the multi-year high at 130.50. Intraweek support is found at 100.28 and pivotal at 98.20. On a daily closing basis, chart suggests that a 104.24 to 113.90 is the most likely scenario this coming week. A break of either of those levels will change the chart in favor or against the bulls. Probabilities favor the bulls and if there is a surprise this week, it will likely be to the upside.

DOLLAR continued its upward movement having yet made another new 19+year intraweek and weekly closing high. The Dollar closed near the high of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 105.00 will be seen this week. The Dollar is now showing intraweek support at 102.35, which if broken would suggest the run is over. Probabilities continue to favor the bulls.

BITCOIN made a new 18-month intraweek and daily closing low this week and in the process generated a new sell signal of consequence, having broken the 18-month daily closing low at 29806, having closed on Thursday at 29029 and confirming the break with a close on Friday at 29336. Further confirmation could occur tonight on the weekly closing chart if it closes below 31559 (presently trading at 30052). This sell signal (if confirmed) opens the door for a drop all the way down to 19187, which is where the next established support level is found. There is some minor but short-term pivotal support at 31068, which if broken would give the bulls a tiny bit of ammunition with which to negate this break. Nonetheless, if Bitcoin does close tonight below 31559, it would need to negate the break the following Sunday with a close above 31559. Bitcoin has not yet proven itself to be fundamentally sound in problematic economic situations and if that does not change (or the problematic economic situation change), it will lose even further support. Simply stated, this is not an established currency that will move based on charts or fundamental news. It needs to establish its viability under bad conditions. As such, probabilities favor the bears.


Stock Analysis/Evaluation
CHART Outlooks

I have no mentions this week. The portfolio is full right now and I did not have the time to check any new opportunities. The time spent in evaluating held stocks this week was almost double what I normally spend as the action seen last week was unbelievably difficult to evaluate with any hope of accuracy.

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Updates
Updates on Held Stocks
Closed Trades, Open Positions and Stop Loss Changes
AAPL

generated a new sell signal on the weekly closing chart, having closed below the 24-week weekly closing low at 154.73 on Friday. Nonetheless, the bulls were above to prevent a 2nd sell signal from being triggered, having closed above the next weekly close support level at 142.65 even though the stock traded as low as 138.80 on Thursday (closed at 147.11 on Friday). It does need to be mentioned that the support at the $140 level has been in place for the past 18 months and is considered decent as it includes previous highs as well as an important previous low. The stock closed slightly in the lower half of the week's trading range, suggesting a slightly higher chance of going below last week's low at 138.80 than above last week's high at 156.74. Nonetheless, the trading range last week was so extended that it is more likely that an inside week occurs than either going above or below last week's trading range. The stock did close near the high of the day on Friday, suggesting the first course of business for the week will be to the upside. There is quite a bit of resistance at the $150 demilitarized zone. It is likely to be reached but not entirely likely that it will be broken. If the stock can get above 151.68, a rally back up to the $160 level would likely occur over the next week or two. Nonetheless, consideration should be given to taking profits at $150 and looking to buy back on the next dip down near the $139 level. Intraday support is found at 144.80, which if broken would tilt the edge back to the bears. Probabilities favor the bulls but only for a rally to $150.

AM made a new 8-week low and did get down to the 200-week MA, currently at 9.56, with a low last week at 9.57. The bulls were able to generate enough buying to close in the upper half of the week's trading range, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 10.45 will be seen this week. Pivotal short-term resistance is found at 10.84, which if broken would suggest the 8-week high at 11.57 would be tested and likely broken. The stock closed on Friday at exactly the 200-day MA, currently at 10.19. If the bulls can generate a confirmed break of that line early in the week, they will get the edge back (which they lost last week). Pivotal support is now found at 9.36. Probabilities favor the bulls.

AMZN made a new 25-month intraweek and weekly closing low but the bulls were able to generate enough buying at the lows to close near the high of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 2280.00 will be seen this week. The stock got down to a level of support between $2020 and $2170 (low this week was $2048) that is decent-to-perhaps strong and that goes all the way back to September 2018. It is a level that was in play in 3 different occasions in the following 16 months and that when broken caused the stock to rally all the way up to the $3773 level. Simply stated, a level that based on the oversold condition, the fundamental situation, and the chart strength, is not likely to get broken unless the overall market collapses. The stock did break (3 weeks ago) the 200-week MA that is currently at 2533.64, meaning that a retest of that line is a very viable objective at this time. There is some minor resistance at 2475.00 that is likely to be the objective for this week. If that level is reached, support will then be found at $2556 and given that the stock closed on Friday at 2261.10, it does suggest that very little (if any) red will be seen this week below Friday's close. Probabilities favor the bulls.

AU generated a new 7-month intraweek and weekly closing low but the bulls were able to generate enough buying at the lows to close slightly in the upper half of the week's trading range, suggesting a slightly higher probability of going above last week's high at 18.18 than below last week's low at 15.87. The stock closed below the 200-week MA for the first time in 7 months and that is a negative that the bulls need to attempt to negate this week. The action seen has changed the chart from mid-term bullish to sideways, meaning that the bulls are now likely to encounter decent resistance between 22.47 and 22.91 for the foreseeable future unless some fundamental changes occur. Support though, should be found in the near future around that 17.75-18.00 area, if and when the bulls can rally the stock this week. A drop below last week's low at 15.87 would be very negative at this time. Probabilities favor the bulls this week.

CALM generated a new 7-week low and closed near the low of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 50.25 will be seen this week. The stock did reach the first of two downside objectives ($50 and $46) and given that the index market seems to have found a temporary bottom, consideration to taking profits should be done. Then again, the bulls were unable to generate any kind of a rally this week in spite of the rally in the index market, meaning that the possibility of the stock getting down to the second objective of the mention is real. Using the daily chart, the stock is showing a bearish inverted flag with the flagpole being the drop from 55.65 to last week's low at 50.25 and the flag being the trading range seen during the week up to 52.00. A break of the bottom of the flag at 50.25 does offer an objective of 46.60. Profits should definitely be taken if that occurs. Pivotal resistance is now found at 52.00, meaning that the stop loss can now be lowered to 52.35. Probabilities favor the bears this week.

ENG generated a new 11-week intraweek and weekly closing low and closed near the low of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at .91 will be seen this week. The stock did generate a new sell signal, having closed below the most recent low weekly close at 1.10. On a potentially positive note, the stock closed at 1.00 and that level is a strong psychologically support area that has been strongly pivotal on numerous occasions for the past 10 years. The stock did close in the upper half of the day's trading range on Friday, suggesting further upside above Friday's high at 1.04 will be seen on Monday. A daily close above 1.10 would negate the break and bring in some new buying interest. Short-term pivotal intraweek support is found at .90, suggesting that closing exactly in the middle of that .90-1.10 range, that this week could be pivotal.

FSLR made a new 20-month intraweek and weekly closing low and closed slightly in the lower half of the week's trading range, suggesting a higher probability of going below last week's low at 59.60 than above last week's high at 71.13. Nonetheless, the stock finds itself in an area ($60) that has been pivotal support for the past 4 years and that is unlikely to get broken unless the index market collapses. This is especially true given that Oil continues to go higher, meaning that clean energy continues to gain interest. If the bulls do find support here, the stock should not go below 59.60 and should find support at 61.24. The stock did gap up on Friday from 62.64 and that gap is not supported by news, therefore should be closed. To the upside though, there is absolutely no resistance until very minor resistance is found at 72.18 and then very slightly stronger at 74.23. On a weekly closing basis though, the 200-week MA, currently at 67.85, is resistance but it also is a very highly likely level to be seen this week at some point. Probabilities slightly favor the bulls.

NEM made a new 12-week intraweek and weekly closing low and closed near the low of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 64.32 will be seen this week. The stock has fallen 25.4% from its all-time high and that means that the bull trend is over. The 200-day MA is currently at 63.13 and that line is likely to be seen this week but also likely to hold as there is no reason to believe that the stock has now broken the long-term uptrend. The stock did gap down on Thursday from 68.10 to 67.99 and there is no reason for that gap to stay open as it is a 3rd gap and not supported by news. Nonetheless, there was enough chart damage done that the previous all-time intraweek high at 70.08 (seen in 2011) is now going to be decent resistance. If the bulls are able to break above it, the next (and decent) intraweek resistance is at 74.51. As such, the 70.08 level is highly indicative as to what the stock is likely to do the next few months. On a daily closing basis, the 72.61 level is pivotal as that was the level that when broken, brought about all this recent selling. As such, a daily close above that level would generate a failure signal against the bears. Probabilities favor the stock trading this week between $63 and $68.

PLNHF made yet another new 23-month intraweek low but the bulls were able to generate enough buying at the end of the week to close above the weekly close support at 1.58 (closed at 1.61). The stock closed very slightly in the upper half of the week's trading range, suggesting a slightly higher possibility of going above last week's high at 1.75 than below last week's low at 1.44. The company will be reporting earnings of Monday after the close, meaning that is likely to be catalytical. Nonetheless, the probabilities are that the report will be positive (rather than negative) as fundamentally the company has been able to accomplish some tangible advances over the past 3 months. In addition, the stock generated the 6th red weekly close in a row on Friday and going back 5 years, that has not happened even once (previous 5 red weekly closes were the most seen). The company has a bright future fundamentally in the Cannabis industry and as such, it is entirely possible (maybe probable) that the low of this move down has been found and that a recovery rally is about to start. Short-term pivotal intraweek resistance is found at 1.77 and a daily close above 1.88 will generate a failure signal against the bulls. Evidently, a new low below 1.44 would be a big negative.

PRTS was unable to follow through on the gains seen the previous week after the company reported earnings that were much better than expected and that brought about a 34% rally from the low. The stock generated an inside week but the bulls were unable to close the stock in the upper half of the weeks trading range, suggesting a slightly higher probability of going below last week's low at 6.45 than above last week's high at 8.00. On the other side of the coin, the stock did get down on Thursday to an intraweek support on the daily chart at 6.49 (which was slightly broken with the 6.45 low) but was then followed up with 2 green daily closes thereafter. The stock close near the high of the day on Friday, suggesting the first course of business will be to the upside on Monday and above Friday's high at 7.16. Daily close resistance is found at 7.28 and pivotal at 7.56. Any new daily close below 6.70 would now be a negative. Probabilities slightly favor the bulls.

SCCO generated a very negative week in which a new 30-month intraweek and weekly closing lows were made. The stock closed near the low of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 54.03 is expected to be seen. This was a total breakdown of the chart and it suggests that not only the bull trend is over but that a drop down to the 200-week MA, currently at 49.15 is likely to be seen. On the other side of the coin, it is possible that the severe nature of the selling could be due to margin selling in the stock market as this is a commodity stock and if that is the case and the indexes do not open substantially lower, it is possible the break of supports will be negated this week. The stock gapped down on Thursday between 56.93 and 56.43 and then on Friday, it generated an inside day and a close very slightly above the midpoint of the day's trading range, suggesting a very slightly higher possibility of going above Friday's high at 56.00 than below Friday's low at 54.06. If that occurs and the gap is closed, the probabilities will increase strongly that the break of support will be negated by the end of the week. If closure of the gap does not occur, the positions will need to be liquidated as a breakaway/runaway gap will be in place and the 200-wee, MA will beckon strongly. Monday is evidently a very important day.

VET made a new 12-week intraweek and weekly closing low but the bulls were able to close slightly in the upper half of the week's trading range, suggesting a slightly higher possibility of going above last week's high at 20.60 than below last week's low at 17.42. A sell signal of some consequence did occur on both the daily and weekly charts but the daily chart sell signal is a bit more indicative and as such, needs to be negated immediately or further downside down to the 16.50 level is likely to occur. To negate the sell signal, the bulls need to generate a confirmed daily close above 19.26. If that does occur, the sell signal will be negated. By the same token, any red daily close by more than 10 points at this time and below 19.26, would further weaken the chart. Any daily close above 20.28 would give the ammunition back to the bulls to attempt to resume the uptrend. Probabilities at this time slightly favor the bears but the key word is "slightly".

VNET and using the weekly closing chart, had a very uneventful week given that it closed within the weekly closing trading range seen the past 6 weeks. That, in and of itself, has to be considered a positive as everything else had gone down strongly during the same period of time. One positive that did occur this past week is that the stock went below the previous week's low but did not break the low made 3 weeks ago at 5.08 and then closed near the high of the week, suggesting that further upside above last week's high at 6.15 will be seen this week. Pivotal intraweek resistance is found at 6.92, which if broken would give the bulls new and short-term strong ammunition. On very important data fact is that the island formation down at 3.95-4.73 remains in place and given the recent weakness in the overall market, the bullishness of the island formation remains in place and suggests that if the selling pressure in the index market goes away, that this stock is likely to outperform most others to the upside. Evidently, any break below 5.08 would now be a negative. Probabilities favor the bulls.

ZLAB was the bright spot of all held stocks as the action seen was more indicative (and likely dependable) than anything else. The stock generated a positive reversal week (very few stocks did), having made a new 37-month low and then closing green on the high of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 33.86 will be seen this week. The stock did report earnings this past week and they were better than expected but due to the overall weakness in the U.S. and Chinese markets, the stock made the new lows after the report and that was extremely worrisome. Nonetheless, at the end of the week, the break of weekly close support that occurred the previous week was negated and if the Chinese and U.S markets can generate any further upside this coming week, this stock is likely to outperform most other stocks. There is some very minor intraweek resistance at 36.53 but there is mostly open air above 38.44 and then to 44.06. On a daily closing basis, the upside objective this week is 43.42, which is the level that when broken, brought about all the recent selling interest. A daily close above that level, would be a game changer for the stock. The earnings report and the Guggenheim downgrade from $134 to $85, does suggest there is a lot of room to the upside for some serious rally, if and when there are no outside negatives that occur. Any daily close below 27.77 would now be a negative. Probabilities favor the bulls.


1) SNDL - Averaged long at .905 (2 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at .3845.

2) PRTS - Purchased at 7.56. Averaged long at 7.29 (2 mentions). Stop loss now at 5.65. Stock closed on Friday at 7.08.

3) SRUTF - Averaged long at .0738 (3 mentions). No stop loss at moment. Stock closed on Friday at .019.

4) BTZI - Averaged long at .0935 (4 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at .0185.

5) ZLAB - Averaged long at 71.955 (6 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 33.72.

6) AU - Averaged long at 26.184 (4 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 17.15.

7) NEM - Averaged long at 72.133 (3 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 65.25.

8) ENG - Averaged long at 3.378 (5 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 1.00.

9) VET - Averaged long at 19.08 (2 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 19.12.

10) VNET - Averaged long at 5.32. No stop loss now at 4.98. Stock closed on Friday at 5.99.

11) AAPL - Purchased at 139.70. No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 147.11.

12) FSLR - Purchased at 67.03. Averaged long at 68.48 (2 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 55.06.

13) SCCO - Purchased at 58.70. Averaged long at 61.09 (2 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 61.41.

14) AMZN - Pirchased at 2092.03 (10 shares). No Stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 2261.10.

15) AMZN - Purchased at 2150.00 (10 shares). Liquidated at 2131.93. Loss on the trade of $181.

16) AMZN - Purchased at 2095.15 (10 shares). Liquidated at 2209.67. Profit on the trade of $1145.


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Disclaimer

The opinions and commentaries by Mr. De Vito are not a recommendation to buy or sell, but rather a charting guideline, based on his own knowledge and experience, regarding the stocks he is following or that are brought to him by others. Mr. De Vito does not presently offer a track record of his trading experiences. No inference of success and/or failure should be assumed. The information enclosed above, regarding his background, length of trading, and experience, is correct but is not meant to suggest, state, or infer any future success in trading, based on his opinions.

The information herewith included should only be used by investors who are aware of the risk inherent in securities trading. Mr. De Vito accepts no liability whatsoever for any loss arising from any use of the information and/or comments he supplies.




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