Issue #766
May 22, 2022 | Newsletter
The newsletter with chart analysis for stocks and stock indexes |
Stock Indexes Analysis/Evaluation
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| Downtrend Remains Intact but a Pause Week Is Likely This Week!
DOW Friday closing price - 31261
The indexes continued lower with the DOW dropping an additional 3%, the SPX dropping an additional 3.1%, the NASDAQ dropping an additional 4.5%, and the RUT dropping an additional .04%. All indexes closed in the lower half of the week's trading range, suggesting further downside below last week's lows (DOW at 30635, SPX at 3810, NAZ at 11492 and RUT at 1730) will be seen this week.
The indexes did generate a strong rally at the end of the day on Friday, suggesting that the first course of business for the week will be to the upside. The rally though, was basically chart oriented given that the SPX got down to the 20% correction level (at 3812) with the 3810 low and usually and without any specific negative news, the first time that occurs, the computers, algorithms, and chart traders usually buy. The first time that the NASDAQ got down to its 20% correction (at 13258) with an intraweek low at 13065, the index bounced 9% from that low that week and the following week before going back down. If the SPX does the same bounce percentage, it will put it up to 4152 this coming week. Keep in mind that the 20% rule means that it needs to do it on a daily closing basis (not intraweek). As such, when it gets down to that level on an intraweek basis, the traders need to buy it strongly to prevent a closure below that level that day.
Nonetheless and in spite of the late rally on Friday and likely follow through to the upside this week, there were no fundamental changes that supported the bounce. In fact, the indexes generated the 7th red weekly close in a row this week (8th red weekly close in the DOW) and that amount of red weekly closes has not been seen since 2001, meaning that this downtrend is special (just like the 13-year uptrend was special). Such an event is bad news for the bulls as further downside is highly likely to yet be seen.
With rallies now becoming opportunities for the traders to short, there is no reason for that not to happen this week. There are no possibly positive catalytic reports scheduled this week (Durable Goods and 2nd estimate of GDP - all of "medium" importance), meaning that the traders are likely to short this rally as that is the "in thing" now (rallies shorted).
None of the indexes find themselves near areas of pivotal resistance and therefore there are no "trigger" areas that could stimulate new buying interest. The closest trigger area in the DOW (on a daily closing basis) is at 32654, in the SPX it is at 4088 (minor) and at 4170 (more indicative), and in the NASDAQ at 12564 (minor) and at 13009 (more indicative). If the latter levels break, then the traders will pay attention. Otherwise, any rally seen (not guaranteed to happen), will be an opportunity to short.
It does need to be mentioned that the RUT continues to outperform the indexes as it only fell .04% this past week with the "next" index (the DOW) falling 3%. As such, it is evident that this downtrend is mostly in the big cap stocks and not the small cap stocks. I expect that to continue. In fact, this dichotomy now does suggest that the panic selling is over and that the indexes will now be in a downtrend but not in a panic liquidation mode. It supports the continuation of the downtrend (no spike liquidation bottom yet found) on an orderly basis but it also offers a buying opportunity for depressed small cap stocks to rally.
As stated on the message board on Friday, the 200-week MA's are now clear downside objectives. In the DOW, that line is at 29192, in the SPX that line is at 3480, and in the NASDAQ it is at 10702. That line is not necessarily to be reached in the next week or two but it is now a magnet that should be reached in at least 2 of the 3 indexes, if not all of them.
The probabilities do favor further downside below last week's lows occurring. The indexes are likely to generate some rally on Monday but it is likely to be short-lived and by Friday, the indexes should have gone below last week's low. By the same token, there is a 10% chance the week might be an "inside" week.
Probabilities continue to favor the bears.
OIL generated a new 7-week intraweek high and did close near the high of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 113.19 will be seen this week. Nonetheless, Oil did generate a minor red weekly close (110.29 vs the previous week at 110.49), suggesting that the bulls are running out of ammunition. This scenario was then supported by the fact that at one point during the week, Oil was down 6.6% below the previous week's close. Additionally, the high of the week at 113.19 was made on Tuesday, which became a negative reversal day that was confirmed by another red daily close on Wednesday, meaning that the decent and pivotal intraweek resistance at 116.64 is now stronger than it was before and likely requires some positive fundamental news to be broken. It also means that the high of the week may not be broken this week (inside week perhaps?). There was no news of consequence out last week and no news of consequence is scheduled for this week. Short-term intraweek support is now found at last week's low at 103.25. A break of that support will weaken the chart. Pivotal intraweek support is found at 98.28. As such, Oil is now in a 98.28 to 116.64 trading range with perhaps a break of last week's trading range (103.25-113.19) being indicative of what direction will be taken in the near future. When a break of that bigger trading range occurs, it will strongly favor one side or the other, depending on which side is broken. Probabilities still favor the bulls but the probabilities dropped a few points this week with the action seen.
DOLLAR generated a red week and a close near the low of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 102.66 will be seen this week. Nonetheless, the Dollar closed at 103.03 and still above the weekly close breakout point at 102.82, suggesting that this past week was simply a retest of the breakout before further upside is seen. On an intraweek basis, pivotal support is found at 102.35, meaning that if that level is broken, it could end up generating a failure signal at the end of the week on the weekly chart (the important chart). Probabilities continue to favor the bulls and this week (and last week's close) being the retest of the breakout. Above the recent high at 105.00 (seen the previous week) there is no resistance until the $107 level is reached and even then, that resistance is minor. Probabilities favor the bulls.
BITCOIN generated an inside week but will likely confirm the important and indicative break of weekly close support at 31559 that occurred the previous week with the close at 30104 (presently trading at 29326). Confirmation of this break, especially if it closes on or near the low of the week, will open the door for another strong move down if the previous week's intraweek low at 26600 is broken this week. There is open air below until the 20000 level is reached. There is now pivotal daily close resistance at 31319 that if broken, would be a sign that perhaps a bottom has been found at 26600. A weekly close above 31559 would generate a failure signal against the bears. Probabilities favor the bears.
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Stock Analysis/Evaluation
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CHART Outlooks
The only thing that should be considered now, with any decent probability of success, are big cap stock short positions on rallies. Nonetheless, at this time and not knowing with any degree of certainty how much of a rally this bounce can generate, I have no new mentions on this newsletter. By the same token, early in the week there should be some clear signs as to what the bounce can actually accomplish (based mostly on the action seen on Monday) and as such, I am likely to have some short mentions early in the week and will make them known on the message board (as soon as I know).
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Updates
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| Updates on Held Stocks |
Closed Trades, Open Positions and Stop Loss Changes |
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AM had a mostly uneventful week but did go above the previous week's high and did close green, meaning that the previous week's low at 9.57 is now a successful retest of the 200-week MA, currently at 9.51. Nonetheless, the stock remains trading sideways given that since December it has been straddling the 200-day MA, currently at 10.21. The stock closed on Friday at 10.22, meaning that direction for this week is unclear and likely dependent on Oil or news. A daily close above 10.62 or below 9.71 will tilt the scales on whichever side is broken. Probabilities do not favor either side this week. AU generated an indecisive inside week but did generate a green weekly close and near the high of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 18.16 will be seen this week. The open gap up at 19.00 remains unclosed but will be a magnet this week for closure unless Gold breaks down (unlikely). The bulls need to generate a weekly close above 17.84 to generate a failure signal. It seemed that was going to happen on Friday but the bulls were unable to "get it done" and as such, the bears remain with the edge. On a small positive note and using the daily chart, the recent low at 15.87 now shows it to be a successful retest of that level and if the stock goes above Friday's high at 17.97, a 2nd successful retest will occur. Any daily close above 18.07 would generate a new buy signal as well as a failure signal against the bears. Any daily close below 17.04 would be a negative. Probabilities slightly favor the bulls. ENG generated a failure signal against the bears on the daily chart but then the bulls failed to confirm the signal on the weekly chart, while at the same time allowing the failure signal to be negated on Friday. As such, the stock remains in a short-term limbo. Nonetheless and with the action seen the past 2 weeks, the bulls have now effectively stopped the short-term control the bears had and put themselves in a position to make a positive statement this week if the can generate some new upside without any new downside. Pivotal daily close resistance is now at 1.29 and pivotal daily close support is at 1.00. Probabilities slightly favor the bulls this week. FSLR generated an uneventful inside week but did generate a green weekly close and in the upper half of the week's trading range, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 68.67 will be seen this week. On a positive note and using the daily chart, a failure signal against the bears occurred when the stock closed above the previous low daily close at 64.90 that when broken, caused the stock to fall down to the 59.60 level. The failure signal was generated on Monday and it was confirmed the rest of the week with daily closes above that level every day thereafter. On the weekly chart, the 200-week MA is currently at 67.91 and if the bulls can close above that level this coming Friday, it will be a tangible sign that the bulls have gained the edge back. Pivotal daily close support is now found at 62.77 but any daily close below 64.90 would weaken the chart again. The $70 level is now also short-term pivotal. Probabilities slightly favor the bulls. NEM generated a positive reversal week, having made a new 14-week low and then closing green and on the high of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 67.26 will be seen this week. It is important to note that Wednesday's low at 63.68 has become a confirmed successful retest of the 200-day MA, currently at 63.26, given that low was then followed up with two green closes in a row. The stock has some open air above as there is no intraweek resistance until the $70 level is reached and even then, that resistance is either minor in nature (recent) or a bit stronger but old (from 21 months ago). The daily close resistance at 72.61 is more pivotal but unlikely to get broken at this time. As such, a recovery up to that level (but no more) is the chart outlook at this time. Intraweek support will now be found at 65.42 and pivotal at last week's low at 63.68. Probabilities favor the bulls. PLNHF generated a green weekly close and did close slightly in the upper half of the week's trading range, suggesting a slightly higher probability of going above last week's high at 1.78 than below last week's low at 1.44. The stock did close on the high of the day on Friday, suggesting further upside above Friday's high at 1.63 will be seen on Monday. If that does occur, a double bottom at 1.44 will be built on the daily chart. An intraweek break of 1.78 in conjunction with a daily close above 1.68, will confirm the double bottom and give the bulls some new ammunition. It should also cause some short covering to occur. If that occurs, the next level to be targeted is 1.88 on the daily closing chart. A close above that level would generate a failure signal against the bears. If all of that occur, the 2.48 level would be the next target. Evidently, a drop back down to 1.44 (especially if broken) would be a new sell sign. Probabilities favor the bulls. PRTS generated an uneventful inside week with a close in the middle of the week's trading range, suggesting equal chances of going above last week's high at 7.66 than below last week's low at 6.60. The stock is presently stuck (trading sideways) between 7.56 and 6.70 (based on daily closes) and any break of either level will bring in movement in that direction. At this time and for this week, there is no clarity in the chart. On a negative note, the stock continues to trade below the 200-week MA, currently at 7.63 but on a positive note, the company reported earnings 2 weeks ago that were much better than expected. As such, this is a stock that is likely dependent on what the RUT index does. In that case, the probabilities do favor the bulls as the index should not head any lower from here. SCCO generated a positive reversal week, having made a new 18-month intraweek low and then closing green and on the high of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 59.13 will be seen this week. This positive reversal week seems to be highly indicative as the stock had broken a very pivotal weekly close support the previous week and was facing open air below of consequence. The rally did generate a failure signal against the bears, with the stock closing above the weekly close support at 56.79 (closed on Friday at 59.06) that got broken the previous week. On the weekly chart, there is mostly open air above until the 66.90-67.75 level is reached. Nonetheless and on the daily chart, the 200-day MA is currently at 64.12 and that line is going to be difficult to break at this time. There are now 2 intraweek support levels with the first one being at 56.44 and the second one being at 54.92. The latter should not be broken any more. Probabilities favor the bulls. VET had a relatively uneventful week as the stock did get above last week's high and did close green but closed near the low of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 18.74 will be seen this week. The chart is unclear at this time as it could be in the process of building a new support base from which to relaunch the uptrend or last week was just a small peak in a recently started downtrend. Intraweek support will be found at 18.08, which should not be broken if the bulls want to have a chance to restart the uptrend. Last week's high at 20.45 is now short-term resistance, which if broken, would give the edge back to the bulls. Probabilities for this week are unclear at this time. Nonetheless, the 18.08 to 20.45 level is clearly short-term important. VNET continued to trade in the same trading range it has been in for the past 7 weeks and as such, nothing of consequence occurred. The stock did close near the low of the week and further downside below last week's low at 5.45 is expected to be seen this week. Pivotal support is found at 5.08 and pivotal resistance at 6.20 and there is no clear hint of which of these two will be broken first. The bulls remain with the edge simply because there has been a bullish island formation in place for the past 10 weeks that has not been negated. Then again and other than a lot of time has passed, has not been confirmed yet. As such, the traders are waiting for "something" to happen to either negate the island or confirm it. Until that happens, the same sideways trading range seen during this period of time will continue. ZLAB generated a second green weekly close, which in turn supports the idea that the positive reversal week seen the week before is in effect "a bottom" to the downtrend. Unfortunately, "support" does not mean "confirmation" and therefore questions remain. The stock did close on the high of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 37.62 will be seen this week. On a daily closing basis, there are no pivotal levels close by as the nearest one is at 45.67 on the weekly closing chart. As such, it is unlikely that any confirmation of anything will happen this week. By the same token, there is open air until the $40-$42 level is reached and if there is no negative news this week, that level should be reached. As far as the downside is concerned, the 32.98 level should now be support. A break of that level would give the bears a new edge. I do want to mention that the 200 10-minute MA is currently at 34.79 and during the last 6 days, that line has not been broken. As such and as long as the bulls stay above that line, they will have a clear edge for further upside. By the same token and also looking at the intraday chart, the 200 60-minute MA is currently at 37.72 and that line has not been broken to the upside for the past 19 days. As such and for the first few days of the week, those intraday MA's (34.79 and 37.72) are going to be short-term pivotal. Probabilities do favor the bulls as the fundamentals do call for higher prices.
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1) SNDL - Averaged long at .905 (2 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at .4157. 2) PRTS - Purchased at 7.56. Averaged long at 7.29 (2 mentions). Stop loss now at 5.65. Stock closed on Friday at 7.11. 3) SRUTF - Averaged long at .0738 (3 mentions). No stop loss at moment. Stock closed on Friday at .0194. 4) BTZI - Averaged long at .0935 (4 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at .021. 5) ZLAB - Averaged long at 71.955 (6 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 36.79. 6) AU - Averaged long at 26.184 (4 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 17.74. 7) NEM - Averaged long at 72.133 (3 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 67.19. 8) ENG - Averaged long at 3.378 (5 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 1.00. 9) VET - Averaged long at 19.08 (2 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 19.32. 10) VNET - Averaged long at 5.32. No stop loss now at 4.98. Stock closed on Friday at 5.69. 11) AAPL - Purchased at 138.17. Averaged long at 138.935. Liquidated at 137.64. Loss on the trade of $259 per 100 shares (2 mentions). 12) FSLR - Averaged long at 68.48 (2 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 65.77. 13) SCCO - Averaged long at 61.09 (2 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 59.06. 14) AMZN - Liquidated at 2153.80. Pirchased at 2092.03. Profit on the trade of $677 )per 10 shares).
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The opinions and commentaries by Mr. De Vito are not a recommendation to buy or sell, but rather
a charting guideline, based on his own knowledge and experience, regarding the stocks he is following or
that are brought to him by others. Mr. De Vito does not presently offer a track record of his trading experiences.
No inference of success and/or failure should be assumed. The
information enclosed above, regarding his background, length of trading, and experience, is correct
but is not meant to suggest, state, or infer any future success in trading, based on his opinions. The information herewith included should only be used by investors who are aware of the risk inherent in securities trading. Mr. De Vito accepts no liability whatsoever for any loss arising from any use of the information and/or comments he supplies. |
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