Issue #768
Jun 5, 2022 | Newsletter
The newsletter with chart analysis for stocks and stock indexes |
Stock Indexes Analysis/Evaluation
|
| Bulls unable to follow through on the edge achieved last week. Bad Omen.
DOW Friday closing price - 31392
The indexes fell anywhere from 4.2% RUT to 5.9% NASDAQ as the inflation news came in worse than expected (1.% versus expected .7%). The indexes closed on Friday just a few points away from generating a signal that the downtrend continues (no bottom found yet) and with them all closing on the lows of the week, if there are no positive surprises this week when the Fed announces the rate decision on Wednesday, the downtrend will likely (and officially) remain in place.
A daily and/or a weekly close in the DOW below 31253 will generate a new sell signal and continuation of the downtrend. In the SPX that level is at 3900 (where it closed on Friday) and on the NASDAQ it is at 11769 on the daily chart but at 11835 on the weekly chart. Given that both the SPX and NAZ closed at those levels on Friday, any red close on Monday will generate a break.
The downside objectives of such a break have to be the 200-week MA's, which in the case of the first 3 indexes have not been touched (or been close to) since March 2020 when the pandemic began. It does need to be mentioned that such a drop is still within the parameters of a long term uptrend, meaning that the bulls will not see it as a major problem if those levels are seen. The problem will begin if that line gets broken. Such action would clearly be defined as a long-term trend change, which is more of a probability than a possibility due to what is happening in the world at this time (high inflation, Russia/Ukraine War, China shut down, etc.).
It is evident that this week is strongly pivotal as the support levels in play are strong pivotal and the news due out is also pivotal to the economy overall. Unfortunately for the bulls, what the Fed is likely to announce has been expected for weeks and therefore already factored into the action in the market. This means that the Fed actually has to give a surprise announcement for the bulls to have much of a chance of preventing further downside and the Fed has not given any surprise announcements for years. In addition, the Fed would have to announce a lesser than expected rate increase (less than the 50 points that are factored in already) in order for the bulls to get any new ammunition and that is the exact opposite of any surprise the Fed would likely announce. With inflation continuing to grow, it is highly unlikely they would announce a lesser than expected rate increase.
As such, the downside targets of the indexes (200-week MA's), to be reached sometime over the next 1-3 weeks, are in the DOW at 29298, in the SPX at 3498, and in the NASDAQ at 10776. That is 2100 points lower in the DOW, 400 points lower in the SPX and 1000 points lower in the NAZ.
The RUT is likely to play an important role during this scenario as the index has been outperforming the other indexes over the past 3-4 weeks. The index already reached the 200-week MA, currently at 1775, 4 weeks ago and already established a successful retest of it. With money switching areas where the investment capital is moving to, such as to oversold and likely undervalued stocks, if this is still a long-term bull market, the bulls should not be able to establish themselves under the MA line in this index. On the other side of the coin, if they are able to do that (break the line and confirm the break), then it likely means that the 200-week MA's in the other indexes will not hold up either. As such, the RUT is likely to be used as an "indicator" of how bad this likely break of support is going to be. By the same token, the chart of this index does suggest that a drop down to the 1700 area will occur but that such a break of the line would be negated soon thereafter.
For this week, it is unlikely that anything indicative or of major strength will happen on Monday or Tuesday. On Wednesday and after the Fed rate decision is announced (2:00 pm), if the rate increase is "as expected", it is likely that weakness will be seen and perhaps as strong as last week during the last 3 days of the week. If all of this occurs as is likely to occur, the downside targets for the indexes this week will be DOW at 30,000, SPX at 3800, NASDAQ at 11000. Nonetheless, thereafter the weakness will likely diminish and the downtrend continue but probably in a slow manner.
The probabilities do favor the bears this week.
OIL continued higher, having made a new 13-week intraweek high and a new 15-year weekly closing high and closed in the upper half of the week's trading range, suggesting further upside above this past week's high at 123.15 will be seen this week. Nonetheless, Oil is now getting close to the 2 fundamental resistance levels at $125 and at $140, which have been mentioned by analysts recently and at the $134 level that the chart suggests is the objective of this recent breakout. As such, it is likely that at least one (if not 2) of those levels will be reached this week. Daily close support is now found at 114.67 and weekly close support is found at 115.68. Probabilities favor the bulls this week.
DOLLAR followed through to the upside (after the previous week's positive reversal) in a strong way, having now rallied 2.4% from the recent low weekly close 3 weeks ago. The Dollar closed on the high of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 104.23 will be seen this week. The bulls were able to negate the failure signal given 4 weeks ago, having closed back again above the previous multi-year high weekly close at 102.82/103.06 (closed at 104.15 on Friday), meaning the bulls have regained the edge back, if not full control. Evidently the Fed rate decision on Wednesday is pivotal. If the Fed raises the rates more than expected (more than 50 points), the Dollar will make a new 14-year high and target the $107 level. If the Fed does not surprise (raises 50 basis points), it is likely that this rally will end up being the retest of the recent intraweek high at 105.00 (104.56 on a weekly closing basis). It is a pivotal week. Probabilities favor the bears slightly.
BITCOIN is presently trading at 28,700 and if it closes tomorrow night below 29,037, a new 17-month low weekly close will occur, suggesting that Bitcoin in ready to move lower, especially considering that the previous week's close at 29,877 will be seen as a successful retest f the breakdown. Nonetheless, and on an intraweek basis, has been actually trading sideways between 28,005 and 32,290 without the bears being able to make any "new" bearish statement. Intraweek support is found at 26,600 and resistance at 32,960. The Fed rate decision could have an effect but it is not clear if it will or not. The bears do have the edge so they have the probabilities in their favor.
|
Stock Analysis/Evaluation
|
CHART Outlooks
I have no mentions this week given that looking at shorting new positions at this time (other than for short-term, overnight, or day trades) does not offer a good risk/reward ratio, at least not until after Wednesday's Fed rate decision. If after the Fed announces its rate decision something doable pops up, I will let you know on the message board.
By the same token, I do want to let you know that a couple of stocks that were recently traded as purchases (for example FSLR and SCCO) are nearing levels where re-purchases can be considered. I will be looking at those as well, but there is no rush in buying those at this time, meaning that it is unlikely that any purchase mentions will be given this week.
|
Updates
|
| Updates on Held Stocks |
Closed Trades, Open Positions and Stop Loss Changes |
|
AAPL generated a new sell signal, having made a new 51-week low weekly close by closing below the low weekly close made 4 weeks ag at 137.56 (closed on Friday at 137.13). The stock closed on the low of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 137.06 wiil be seen this week. The stock still has intraweek support at the 132.61 low seen 4 weeks ago but that support does not show previous support at that price, meaning it is likely to be broken. Below 132.61 there is no support below until very minor support at 126.38. Slightly stronger support is found at 122.25, which is likely to be the objective of this move down before some bounce occurs. Pivotal daily close resistance is now found at 143.16 but on a weekly closing basis, it is at 139.07. Probabilities favor the bears. AM generated negative reversal week, having made a new 32-intraweek high but then closing red and near the low of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 10.60 will be seen this week. The red weekly close that means that for now, the potential resumption of the uptrend has stalled. By the same token, the chart is now showing multiple tops (4 to be exact) between 11.50 and 11.71 (high last week was 11.60), meaning that the probabilities are high that area will ultimately be broken. Since November, the stock has been "straddling" the 200-day MA, currently at 10.34, but given the fundamental picture and the multiple highs, that line should now hold up (not get straddled), meaning that 10.34 is the downside objective for this week, and from which a new attempt at breaking above 11.71 will be launched. Pivotal intraweek support is found at 9.57. Upside objective remains the 13,72 area when a breakout occurs. Probabilities favor the bulls for a green close next Friday. AU generated a very impressive classic reversal on the daily chart, having made a new 4-week low on Friday and then closing above Thursday's high. In addition and in spite of a red close occurring on the weekly chart, the stock closed near the high of the week and further upside above last week's high at 17.99 is expected to be seen this week. Short term pivotal resistance is found at 18.40 that if broken would suggest the gap up at 19.00 will be closed and if that occurs, it will be a signal that this recent down move is over. By the same token and until a confirmed weekly close above the 200-week MA happens, currently at 19.44, the possibility of a recovery of consequence occurring will remain low. Last week's low at 16.32 is now the new pivotal support level. Based on what Gold is doing, the probabilities do favor the bulls and a likely recovery up to the 23.85 level. CAT generated a negative reversal week, having made a new 7-week high but then turning around to close red and on the low of the week, suggesting further downside below 215.01 will be seen this week. The stock now shows the required/needed retest of the 52-week high at 237.90 that was made in April and that suggests that the chart is "fulfilled" to the upside and that at least a correction of consequence is to occur or a downtrend is to begin. Very, very minor intraweek support is found at 213.55, slightly less minor at 205.50, and minor to perhaps decent at 199.23. Short-term pivotal intraweek support is found at 194.04. Below that, support is found at 186.98 and longer term pivotal at 179.67. Short-term pivotal support is now found at 223.29 that is further strengthened by a potential breakaway gap at 223.62 that should not be closed at this time unless the bulls are able to rally the index market. In fact, the breakaway gap should get supported with a runaway gap at some point this week. In using the daily chart, the 200-day MA is currently at 207.69, that should be seen at some point this week. If another gap down occurs this week and that line is broken, strong selling is likely to be seen and an immediate drop to $199 occur. Probabilities favor the bears. ENG got up to the decent intraweek resistance at 1.39 but likely due to the weakness in the index market, the bulls were unable to generate a break of that level. Nonetheless, the stock still generated a green weekly close as well as a close slightly in the lower half of the week's trading range, suggesting a slightly higher probability of going below last week's low at 1.13 than above last week's high at 1.39. By the same token, that probability will likely depend on what the indexes do and not on what the stock does. There are now multiple tops (4 to be exact) at the 1.38/1.39 level, suggesting a high probability of that level getting broken at some point in the near future. Last week's low at 1.13 is now short-term pivotal support, meaning that this past week' trading range is overall pivotal. Probabilities do favor the bulls slightly but only if the indexes don't sell off sharply. FIX generated a negative reversal week, having made a new 7-week intraweek high but then closing red and on the low of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 88.25 will be seen this week. Some intraweek support is found at 86.12 and at 83.83.70 and then pivotal at 80.00. Intraweek resistance is found at 90.53 and then at 91.70. A break above 91.70 would negate some of the bearish action seen this past week. The stock gapped down on Friday from 91.33 and if it gaps down again on Monday (below 88.25) and especially if the gap is below the 200-day MA, currently at 87.88 and the 87.13 intraweek low support is broken (all very viable possibilities), a drop down to the $83 level would likely occur. Pivotal longer term support is found at 80.00. Proabilities favor the bears. IDCC generated negative reversal week, having made a new 17-week high but then closing red and near the low of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 63.85 will be seen this week. Nonetheless, the bulls were able to close on Friday still above the 200-week MA, currently at 64.08, meaning that the bears were not able to yet gain a decided edge. By the same token, the short-term pivotal resistance at 65.85 has now been strengthened as the stock closed at 66.03 the previous week and closed at 64.67 on Friday, meaning that a double high at that area is now in place. In addition, the 200-day MA is currently at 66.57 and with the stock closing on 66.84 and following that up with 3 red daily closes, it does suggest that the stock requires a positive fundamental piece of news in order for any further upside to be seen. There are 2 daily close support levels to watch this week, with the first one being at 64.21 and the second one being at 61.44. A break of the first will likely cause a drop to the second and a close below the second one will damage the chart in favor of the bears and against the bulls. Stop loss should remain at 67.35. Probabilities slightly favor the bears. NEM generated an impressive key reversal on the daily chart on Friday, having made a new 15-week intraweek low and then closing above Thursdays high. The reversal caused the stock to move up 7% in price on Friday alone and strongly suggests that a bottom to this correction/move down has been found. On the weekly chart, the stock did still generate a red weekly close but the bears were unable to break the now established weekly close support at 65.25 (closed at 66.85) and did close in the upper half of the week's trading range, \suggesting further upside above last week's high at 68.57 will be seen this week. Short-term pivotal resistance is found at 70.16 and longer term pivotal resistance is found at 75.31. Important and likely indicative support is found at 64.95. Probabilities favor the bulls. PLNHF did nothing different (had another "nothing burger" event) with the exception that the stock did go below the previous week's low but did not get below the recent low at 1.37, meaning that the door is now open for a bottom to be established if the stock can get above 1.69 this week. Probabilities continue to slightly favor the bears. PRTS generated another negative reversal week (2nd in a row) and did weaken the chart slightly as the stock gave a new buy signal on the daily chart on Wednesday and then proceeded to negate it and give a sell signal on Friday. By the same token, the stock closed on Friday close to a short-term pivotal support at 7.50 (closed at 7.54) that the bears need to break to get the edge back. The action last week proved that the bulls don't yet have the necessary ammunition to take the stock higher (likely because the index market in under strong sell pressure) but did not prove that the bears have totally stopped the bulls. As such, this coming week is important and pivotal. Two daily closes below 7.50 will weaken the chart further and give the edge to the bulls while 2 green daily closes above 7.50 this week will mean the traders will wait for further news. VET generated a failure signal on the daily closing chart, having closed above pivotal daily close resistance at 23.52 on Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday but then below that level on Friday. On the weekly closing chart, the bulls failed to close above the weekly close resistance at 23.44 (closed at 23.24 on Friday) and that means that the bulls must generate a green close this Friday to keep the uptrend intact. A red weekly close next Friday would mean the pivotal resistance has been tested successfully, which in turn would likely bring in a strong profit-taking sell off as well as new selling interest. The stock did close near the low of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 22.65 is likely to be seen this week. Pivotal intraweek support is found at 21.94, meaning that the bulls have to keep the stock above that level in order to keep the door open for another green weekly close next Friday. Probabilities still favor the bulls slightly but the action last week has uncovered some fundamental weakness given that the high last week was at 25.41 and that area did not represent any previously established resistance, meaning the stock stopped rallying where it shouldn't have. Then again it does need to be mentioned that the Natural Gas Index did close on Friday at 8.85 and this area between 8.42 and 8.72 does show decent and established weekly close resistance from 2008/2009. As such, NG has to generate another green close this Friday to convincingly break that resistance and it closed in the middle of the trading range for the week, meaning equal chances of going higher than of going lower than last week's trading range. This means that watching what NG does this week, is pivotal for the stock. Using the daily chart, NG, shows indicative support is at 8.11 and indicative resistance at 9.40. Which ever gets broken first will affect the stock positively or negatively. Probabilities do favor the bulls but slightly. VNET generated a buy signal on the daily closing chart on Wednesday, having made a new 4-week intraweek and daily closing high. Nonetheless and likely due to the index sell off, the bulls were unable to follow through and the stock fell back at the end of the week. No sell signal though, was given on the fall back. The buy signal did have one strong positive and that was that the island formation has now been confirmed and is unlikely to be negated unless outside forces (like the index market) help push the stock back down. The stock did close slightly in the lower half of the week's trading range, meaning that there is a slightly higher probability of going below last week's low at 5.44 than above last week's high at 6.63. Intraweek support is found at 5.04 that should not be broken. There is some support between 5.70 and 5.80 that has a good chance to hold up and if it does, the bulls are likely to come back in strongly. That likely depends on how much weakness is seen in the index market. A rally above last week's high at 6.63 would now be a strong trigger for further upside as there is a double high at that price. A break of that level would give an 8.81 short-term objective. Probabilities slightly favor the bulls. ZLAB bulls were unable to follow through to the upside in spite of the close near the high of the week the previous week and the bears came back in and made a new 4-week intraweek low but a new 3-year weekly closing low. The stock closed near the low of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 25.83 will be seen this week. The stock now finds itself close to the "next" weekly closing support at 26.21, having closed on Friday at 26.61. Nonetheless, it has become clearly evident that until the Chinese market can get itself moving higher, the bears will continue to have the edge with ZLAB. By the same token and in looking at the SSE (Chinese index market), the index is near a major support level at $1687 (closed at $1754) and that means that it is not likely that the index will fall more than 4% from its present price. A drop of an additional 4% in ZLAB would put the stock down to 25.53 and the 3-year intraweek low is at 24.50, which was made just 5 weeks ago. This does suggest that intraweek low will hold and a rally begin. It is important to note that ZLAB is considered to be one of the stronger companies in China and therefore the one to rally the most once a bottom to the SSE is found. By the same token, the bulls cannot allow the stock to get below 24.50 any more as that would further weaken the chart picture. Pivotal intraweek resistance is found at 38.01. Probabilities slightly favor the bulls this week for a green close on Friday.
|
1) SNDL - Averaged long at .905 (2 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at .3289. 2) PRTS - Averaged long at 7.29 (2 mentions). Stop loss now at 5.65. Stock closed on Friday at 7.54. 3) SRUTF - Averaged long at .0738 (3 mentions). No stop loss at moment. Stock closed on Friday at .0195. 4) BTZI - Averaged long at .0935 (4 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at .0022. 5) ZLAB - Averaged long at 71.955 (6 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 26.61. 6) AU - Averaged long at 26.184 (4 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 17.63. 7) NEM - Averaged long at 72.133 (3 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 66.85. 8) ENG - Averaged long at 3.378 (5 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 1.22. 9) VET - Purchased at 23.97. Averaged long at 20.71 (3 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 23.24. 10) VNET - Averaged long at 5.32 (2 mentions). No stop loss now at 4.98. Stock closed on Friday at 5.90. 11) AAPL - Shorted at 150.38. Stop loss at 151.84. Stock closed on Friday at 137.13. 12) IDCC - Shorted at 65.89. Stop loss at 67.35. Stock closed on Friday at 64.67. 13) CAT - Shorted at 229.67. Stop loss is at 232.45. Stock closed on Friday at 215.18. 14) FIX - Shorted at 92.55. Stop loss at 93.73. Stock closed on Friday at 89.20. 15) CAT - Shorted at 224.16. Covered shorts at 223.63. Profit on the trade of $57 per 100 shares. 16) CAT - Shorted at 232.13. Covered shorts at 226.64. Profit on the trade of $549 per 100 shares.
Previous Newsletters
|
The opinions and commentaries by Mr. De Vito are not a recommendation to buy or sell, but rather
a charting guideline, based on his own knowledge and experience, regarding the stocks he is following or
that are brought to him by others. Mr. De Vito does not presently offer a track record of his trading experiences.
No inference of success and/or failure should be assumed. The
information enclosed above, regarding his background, length of trading, and experience, is correct
but is not meant to suggest, state, or infer any future success in trading, based on his opinions. The information herewith included should only be used by investors who are aware of the risk inherent in securities trading. Mr. De Vito accepts no liability whatsoever for any loss arising from any use of the information and/or comments he supplies. |
![]() |
|
|