Issue #770
Jun 26, 2022 | Newsletter
The newsletter with chart analysis for stocks and stock indexes |
Stock Indexes Analysis/Evaluation
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| Confusion Reigns! Unexpected and unsupported-by-charts-or-fundamentals recovery rally occurs.
DOW Friday closing price - 31500
The indexes were able to generate a bounce from the lows of between 5.4% (DOW) and 8.9% NASDAQ, suggesting some form of recovery is occurring. The SPX negated the previous week's signal of a trend change as it rallied and closed above the 3812 level that signaled a 20% drop from the all-time high weekly close. As such, if another close above 3812 occurs next Friday, the short-term bearishness of the signal will be negated. The indexes all closed on the highs of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's highs will be seen this week (DOW above 31517, SPX above 3913, NASDAQ above 12112 and RUT above 1765.
The action this past week opened the door for the recovery to gain additional traction given that some weekly close resistance levels were broken and indicative-of-weakness gaps were closed. In the DOW the minor weekly close resistances at 31097 and at 31494 were broken, in the SPX the runaway gap at 3900 was closed, as well as potentially giving a failure signal against the bears with the close a previous low weekly close support at 3900. In the NASDAQ the index generated a failure signal against the bulls with a close above a previous low weekly close at 11835 as well as breaking a minor weekly close resistance at 11995. In the RUT, the index negated the previous week's failure signal against the bears when it closed above 1699, which is the level that got broken the previous week. As such, all of these actions suggest that at least until the next set of important economic reports come out (starting Friday with the ISM Index report), the bulls will have the edge.
The indexes do have quite a bit of air above where no resistance is found. In the DOW the next intraweek resistance is found at 32689. There is a breakaway gap at 32297 that should be a magnet for closure. In the SPX, the next intraweek resistance is found at 4090 and the breakaway gap is at 4017. In the NASDAQ, the next intraweek resistance is at 12572 and the breakaway gap is a 12267. In the RUT, the next intraweek resistance is at 1840 but surprisingly, the index still has both the breakaway gap (at 1850) and the runaway gap (at 1792) unclosed. As such, the RUT is likely to be the most important index of all, especially considering that the 200-week MA is at 1775. Evidently, if this past week's rally was truly meaningful, a decent rally is likely to be seen (DOW as much as 1200 points, the SPX as much as 180 points, the NAZ as much as 400 points and the RUT as much as 75 points).
Nonetheless, the chart picture is not that clear, as to believe that this scenario stated above is going to have a high probability of occurring. The reality is that there has been no positive fundamental changes announced to support this rally and especially since the lows seen the previous week have not yet been tested successfully and need to be, if the bulls are to have the possibility of a good rally occurring that will have some staying power. In addition, the indexes gapped up on Friday (also without news to support the gaps) and those are magnets that if closed will make it extremely difficult to achieve the upside levels mentioned above. In the DOW, the gap is at 30715, in the SPX it is at 3802, in the NASDAQ it is at 11729 and a second one at 11357 and in the RUT it is at 1714. This chart scenario is therefore opposite to each other and with no fundamental news due out until Friday (which could help clarify which one has a better chance of happening, or even happening first), it is close to impossible to rely on the charts this week. Once the direction of the week gets established on Monday, one scenario or the other will gain strength.
I have no probability ratings that I can give at this time for the week. Nonetheless, the reality is that the bears have been in control for the last 5 months, meaning the onus of proof is on the shoulders of the bulls.
OIL generated a new 6-week low at 101.58 but then recovered to close in the upper half of the week's trading range, suggesting a rally above last week's high at 111.16 will be seen this week. Oil is presently in a "limbo" situation with no clear short-term direction as the traders await new news. Potential and maybe even probable trading range for this coming week is 116.64 to the upside and 105.13 to the downside. As such, it can be considered that Oil is presently "building the chart" while awaiting news that will be decisive for one direction of the other. If Oil does go above last week's high this week, it will make last week's intraweek low a pivot point. To the upside, the pivot point is presently at 123.68. It is unlikely either level will be broken this coming week.
DOLLAR generated a failure signal, having closed below the previous multi-year intraweek and weekly closing high at 104.54, which was broken the previous week. The Dollar had an uneventful inside week but did close in the lower half of the week's trading range, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 103.86 will be seen this week. The Dollar chart is showing two intraweek pivotal levels at 105.79 and at 103.42, either of which if broken would likely bring about a $1 move in the direction broken. Otherwise, there is nothing else to be gained from the chart. Probabilities slightly favor the bears.
BITCOIN bulls were able to stop the selling given that no follow through to the downside occurred this week (in spite of closing near the lows of the week the previous week) and a green weekly close and near the high of the week is occurring presently trading (Saturday 3:00pm) at 21222. If Bitcoin is able to close tomorrow above last week's close at 18978, a successful retest of the all-time high made 4 years ago at 19107 will have occurred and such a retest should bring in new buying interest. Bitcoin did generate on Friday a small buy signal on the daily chart that suggests that the worst is over. By the same token, any daily close this week below 19983 will bring in the sellers again. There is no resistance above until the 30000 level is reached. Probabilities slightly favor the bulls at this point.
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Stock Analysis/Evaluation
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CHART Outlooks
I have no mentions this week given the chart uncertainty that is present after what happened this week. Simply stated, there are no "clear" chart indications of what is likely to happen this coming week. It is a "flip of a coin" week starting on Monday. By the same token, Monday could generate a clearer signal of what to expect the rest of the week. If that happens at any time during the week, I will give mentions and/or actions to be taken on the message board.
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Updates
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| Updates on Held Stocks |
Closed Trades, Open Positions and Stop Loss Changes |
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AAPL generated a failure signal against the bears, having closed above the previous low weekly close at 137.59, as well as breaking a minor weekly close resistance at 139.07 (closed at 141.66). The stock closed on the high of the week and further upside above last week's high at 141.91 is expected to be seen this week. Intraweek resistance is found at 145.09 and then nothing until the $150 level. Then again, the stock gapped up on Friday from 138.59 and the gap is not supported by news (should be closed) and there is no established intraweek support until 132.09. As such, the chart direction is totally unclear at this time, other than the levels in play (145.09 and 138.59). Whichever gets broken (or closed) is likely to determine what the stock will do. AU made a new 9-month intraweek and weekly closing low and closed in the lower half of the week's trading range, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 15.09 will be seen this week. Nonetheless, the stock is now at the next (and somewhat decent) weekly close support level at 14.78 and with Gold looking more positive than negative, the chances of this area holding up and generating a recovery rally are high. In addition, the stock generated a green daily close on Friday, meaning that further upside above Friday's high at 15.80 is expected to be seen on Monday. A daily close above 16.27 will start giving the bulls some ammunition. Pivotal resistance on that same chart is found at 18.22, which if broken would suggest a rally back up to the $20 demilitarized zone. For the time being though, that is probably the most that can be achieved without some tangible fundamental change in favor of the bulls. CAT generated a break of pivotal weekly close support at 187.06, having closed on Friday at 185.49. The stock closed in the lower half of the week's trading range, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 176.02 will be seen this week. Nonetheless and using the daily chart, the stock does now show a failure signal against the bears, having broken the 17-month low daily close at 180.63 on Thursday (closed at 178.67) and then negating the break on Friday with a close at 185.49. This means the daily and weekly chart are not in unison and therefore nothing is clear on the charts at this time. The stock should go above Friday's high at 185.60 on Monday and the only close by intraweek resistance is found at 188.77 and it is a very minor one. As such, the chart is not clear at this time as to what will happen this week. Traders will look to the indexes for direction. ENG did not see any follow through to the downside as was expected and ended up with an inside week but with a close on the high of the week, suggesting further upside above 1.08 is expected to be seen this week. On an additional positive point, the stock solidified the daily close support at .94 cents that now makes it a decent and pivotal support from which the bulls can buy against with a fair amount of confidence. The next pivotal resistance (but somewhat more psychological than meaningful) is at 1.14. A close above that level will give some additional ammunition to the bulls for an attempt to break the truly pivotal resistance at 1.39 (1.37 on a daily closing basis). Daily close support should now be found at 1.04. Probabilities slightly favor the bulls. FIX bulls were able to generate a clear failure signal against the bears, having closed on Friday at 83.02 and above the daily closing low support at 81.68 that when broken caused the stock to drop down to 74.14. A failure signal was also given on the weekly closing chart but it was more technical than tangible as the weekly closing level that got broken was as 82.47, meaning that if a red close next Friday occurs and is below 82.47, the 83.02 close will be seen as a successful retest of the break. The chart shows decent daily close resistance between 86.46 and 86.59 that the bulls need to break in order to continue higher. If that level is not broken, there is basically open air below to 80.00 and if that is broken, down to 77.31. Like with the indexes and many other held-short stocks, the chart is not clear and therefore Monday's action is likely to help decide the direction for the week. IDCC generated an inside week but did close near the high of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 64.06 will be seen this week. Of all the held short stocks, this stock continues to show the best chart for a recovery, given that no pivotal support levels have been broken. By the same token, it is the clearest chart of all regarding the resistance above. The 200-week MA is currently at 63.88 and given the stock closed at 63.57 on Friday, there is little to be done by the bulls to accomplish generating a positive sign. In fact and on a daily closing basis, a daily close above 64.15 would give the bulls new ammunition for a rally up to the 200-day MA, currently at 66.16, and a daily close above 66.84 would be a breakout of note. On the opposite side, a daily close below 61.28 would weaken the chart and a close below 60.15 would be bearish-of-note. NEM had an uneventful inside week but the stock did generate a green weekly close and did close in the upper half of the week's trading (barely in each case) suggesting a slightly higher probability of going above last week's high at 66.24 than below last week's low at 61.88. In addition and in keeping with an uneventful close, the stock closed on the 200-day MA, currently at 64.21, meaning that like with most everything else, direction this week is a "flip of a coin". The means that a rally above or a drop below last week's trading range will likely be indicative. On a pivotal nature, the bears do need to break the previous week's low at 61.30 to generate an indicative action. PLNHF made yet another new 24-month intraweek and weekly closing low and closed on the low of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 1.25 will be seen this week. This means that there is now open air below for a drop down to the $1 level, which in turn puts the stock in a chart hole that requires positive fundamental news to overcome. The stock has now fallen 86% in value in the last 16 months and yet there have been NO negative fundamental changes occurring. It has been downside momentum in the Cannabis industry (no specific negatives to the company itself). It has been expected that this year this industry will turn around and start an uptrend but when that is to happen, is presently an unknown. PRTS generated a new buy signal on the weekly closing chart, having made a new 19-week weekly closing high and more importantly, a convincing close above the 200-week MA, currently at 7.80, having closed on Friday at 8.30. The stock closed in the upper half of the week's trading range and further upside above last week's high at 8.54 is expected to be seen this week. Intraweek resistance is found at 8.67 and again at 9.00, which means the bulls still have more to do before getting full control. Nonetheless and in looking at the weekly closing chart, there is no resistance of consequence until the 9.70 level is reached. On the daily closing chart, there is still resistance at 8.43, at 8.78 and at 9.63. The probabilities do favor the bulls but the climb up will not be fast. Pivotal daily close support remains down at 6.95. VNET generated a new 10-week weekly closing high and did close near the high of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 6.62 will be seen this week. Intraweek resistance remains copious between 6.63 and 6.92, meaning that further upside will remain laborious but if the bulls can get above 6.92, there is mostly open air to 7.94 and if that level gets broken, the $10 level would then be the objective. Support remains at 5.23. This week's rally does give the edge to the bulls and something negative needs to happen in order for the gains to be negated. Probabilities favor the bulls. ZLAB did see follow through to the upside after last week's positive reversal and did close near the high of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 34.85 will be seen this week. On a possible negative note, this same (identical) chart action occurred 6 weeks ago and the end result of it was a new multi-year low. This means that this coming week is extremely important, with the bulls needing to at least generate another green close next Friday. By the same token, pivotal intraweek resistance is found at 38.01 and if that gets broken, it will confirm that a bottom has been made and that the stock has begun a recovery rally. Intraweek support is found at 25.74 and at 24.50. The probabilities still favor the bears slightly but the chart |
1) SNDL - Averaged long at .905 (2 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at .39. 2) PRTS - Averaged long at 7.29 (2 mentions). Stop loss now at 5.65. Stock closed on Friday at 8.30. 3) SRUTF - Averaged long at .0738 (3 mentions). No stop loss at moment. Stock closed on Friday at .0158. 4) BTZI - Averaged long at .0935 (4 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at .0036. 5) ZLAB - Averaged long at 71.955 (6 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 34.22. 6) AU - Averaged long at 26.184 (4 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 15.59 7) NEM - Averaged long at 72.133 (3 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 64.18. 8) ENG - Averaged long at 3.378 (5 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 1.06. 9) VNET - Averaged long at 5.32 (2 mentions). No stop loss now at 4.98. Stock closed on Friday at 6.26. 10) AAPL - Shorted at 150.38. Stop loss at 151.84. Stock closed on Friday at 141.66 11) IDCC - Shorted at 65.89. Stop loss at 67.35. Stock closed on Friday at 63.57. 12) CAT - Shorted at 229.67. Stop loss is at 232.45. Stock closed on Friday at 185.49. 13) FIX - Shorted at 92.55. Stop loss at 93.73. Stock closed on Friday at 83.02. 14) AM - Purchased at 10.18. Liquidated at 9.65. Loss on the trade of $35 per 100 shares. 15) AAPL - Shorted at 138.58. Covered short at 137.44. Loss on the trade of $88 per 100 shares. 16) QQQ - Shorted at 283.25. Covered short at 284.04. Loss on the trade of $79 per 100 shares. 17) FIX - Shorted at 82.18. Covered shorts at 81.83. Profit on the trade of $35 per 100 shares. 18) AAPL - Shorted at 140.58. Covered short at 140.32. Profit on the trade of $26 per 100 shares.
Previous Newsletters
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The opinions and commentaries by Mr. De Vito are not a recommendation to buy or sell, but rather
a charting guideline, based on his own knowledge and experience, regarding the stocks he is following or
that are brought to him by others. Mr. De Vito does not presently offer a track record of his trading experiences.
No inference of success and/or failure should be assumed. The
information enclosed above, regarding his background, length of trading, and experience, is correct
but is not meant to suggest, state, or infer any future success in trading, based on his opinions. The information herewith included should only be used by investors who are aware of the risk inherent in securities trading. Mr. De Vito accepts no liability whatsoever for any loss arising from any use of the information and/or comments he supplies. |
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