Issue #769
Jun 19, 2022 | Newsletter
The newsletter with chart analysis for stocks and stock indexes |
Stock Indexes Analysis/Evaluation
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| Downtrend now in place. More downside expected.
DOW Friday closing price - 29888
The indexes continued the downtrend, having generated another red weekly close across the board and closes near the lows of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's lows (DOW below 29653, SPX below 3636, NASDAQ below 11037 and the RUT below 1641) will be seen this week. The thing to note about this past week's action is that the SPX is now "officially" the 3rd index to generate the trend changing signal (only the DOW has not done it yet), meaning that the bears are now in control of the market. The SPX is considered to be the most indicative of all the indexes in providing a picture of the overall market, not just specific sections of it such as the DOW representing just 35 of the top companies in the U.S. and the NASDAQ representing the Tech industry and high speculation. As such, the signal given this week is indicative and dire for the longer term.
One additional note of importance is that all the indexes generated a gap down on the weekly chart and that gap is now either going to be a magnet for closure (a bounce or some recovery) or a signal that much further downside is to occur (if another weekly down gap occurs). Closure of the gaps is not necessarily going to be a bullish sign, given that the trend change signals will not necessarily be negated if the gaps are closed. On the other side though, a breakaway/runaway gap formation on the weekly chart would suggest that another 20% fall (from Friday's closes) could occur.
The NASDAQ and the DOW will be the indexes to watch this week given that the 200-week MA's in those two indexes are close by. In the DOW, the line is at 29319 (meaning it is 569 points below Friday's close) and the NASDAQ the line is at 10796 (469 points below Friday's close). Evidently, a gap down on Tuesday below the MA would not only be a dire sign but one that would likely throw the market into panic. Nonetheless, it is doubtful that will happen. As such, this week will be all about getting down to the MA line and then, it will be about where the indexes close next Friday. If the indexes get down to the line early in the week and then rally and close in the upper half of the week's trading range on Friday, closure of the gaps (DOW at 31387, SPX at 3900 and NASDAQ at 11825) will become the target for the following week. If the indexes gap down on Tuesday, or close on or near the lows of the week next Friday and then gap down the following Monday, all hell will break loose.
There are no economic reports of any consequence due out this week, meaning that this week will be "all about" the charts and the levels mentioned above. As far as what to look for at the beginning of the week that would favor the bulls and turn things around for the week, here are the levels of intraweek resistance to watch. In the DOW at 31011, in the SPX at 3837, and in the NASDAQ 11751. If those levels are broken, it will have a positive effect on the index market, especially if the SPX generates a daily close above 3838, which is the level that gave the trend change signal. A close above that level would negate the signal.
Having given you all these chart parameters, let me say what is likely to be the most probable scenario. The probabilities favor the indexes getting down to the MA lines early in the week and then turning around and rallying in an attempt to close the gaps above, or at least get close to them. This scenario would involve a 3 week period of time as the traders await the economic reports beginning in July, which is also when the earning reports for the next quarter begin. As such, the probabilities do not favor a breakdown (close below the MA's) at this time. Then again, under the present situation, anything can happen.
OIL generated a classic negative reversal week, having made a new 15-week high but then closing below the previous week's low. The negative reversal sign was further strengthened when a failure signal on the weekly closing chart occurred, having closed below the recent multi-year high weekly close at 115.68 (closed on Friday at 110.48). Oil closed near the low of the week and further downside below last week's low at 108.37 is expected to be seen this week. There is some "minor" intraweek support at 103.24 (104.70 on a weekly closing basis). Nonetheless, if broken, there is nothing below until the 98.20/98.87 level is reached. To the upside and on an intraweek basis, minor resistance is found at 113.20 and then stronger at 116.64. The action seen does suggest that for the time being and until new fundamental news comes out, the high for the rally is set. As such, the chart now suggests Oil will trade between 98.50 and 116.50 for at least the next 3 weeks. Probabilities do favor the bears this week.
DOLLAR made a new multi-year intraweek and weekly closing high and closed slightly in the upper half of the week's trading range, suggesting a higher probability of going above last week's high at 105.78 and below last week's low at 103.42 (closed at 104.70). By the same token, it is not clear that the Dollar will go higher given that it made a new multi-year high on the Daily closing chart on Monday but then on Thursday that new high was negated and then the negation confirmed on Friday, meaning that the daily and weekly closing chart are not in unison. There is decent intraweek resistance above at 106.56, meaning that even if the bulls are able to continue higher, they face a difficult obstacle to overcome. If they are unable to go higher and last week's low at 103.42 is broken, it would be a strong negative sign given the strength of this resistance area between 103.82 and 106.56 that would include last week's high at 105.78 and that goes all the way back to 1989. Probabilities do favor the bulls due to the fundamental picture now (as evaluated) but given the possibility of stagflation occurring, it really is a question mark.
BITCOIN dropped 40% in price this week alone and did generate a weekly close at 18,897 on Sunday, meaning that it has reached the downside objective of 19,107, which was the all-time high weekly close made in 2017, when it first experienced the hot buying of crypto currency. Dropping down to this level was expected once the 30,000 level of support was broken. Now, the battle once again begins given that Bitcoin should find support here and if it does, a recovery rally back up to the 30,000 level would likely begin. If another red close occurs next Sunday, a drop all the way down to the 8000 level could occur. As such, this is a big, important and pivotal week. Bitcoin is presently trading at 20,020 (Monday 4:00pm). By the same token, the long term bullishness of Bitcoin is now over, or at least over for a year or two. If able to hold the 19000 level, a trading range between 19000 and 31000 (based on weekly closes) will likely be in effect for the rest of the year if not longer.
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Stock Analysis/Evaluation
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CHART Outlooks
I have no mentions this week given that the charts suggest that more downside is to be seen but not enough to put on new short positions with a doable risk/reward ratio. On the other side of the coin (purchasing), there is not yet enough chart confidence to put on purchases with a decent probability rating. This does not mean that I will not be doing some purchases during the week but those will be more with either a day trade or short term mentality and then only if desired entry points are reached. These stocks and entry points are not clear at this time but will likely have additional clarity as the trading during the week ensues. If that does occur, I will give the mentions in the message board.
I do plan to do some liquidations of existing positions this week, if the desired exit points are reached. The risk of holding on to these positions (long or short) does not make good risk/reward sense. More details below in the Held Stock Comments section.
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Updates
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| Updates on Held Stocks |
Closed Trades, Open Positions and Stop Loss Changes |
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AAPL generated another new 52-week low and once again, in the lower half of the week's trading range, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 129.04 will be seen this week. The stock has now confirmed a trend change, having traded for 2 weeks in a row below the 20% breakdown level at 143.56. On a weekly closing basis, there are two support levels below at 124.61 and then stronger and more pivotal at 119.99. A close below 119.99 would open the door for a likely drop to $110 but more likely for an extended drop to the 200-week MA, currently at the $100 mark. Short-term pivotal resistance is found at 137.34, which if broken would suggest that the gap at 142.53 would be closed. Probabilities continue to favor the bears with the $120 level being the objective. AM generated a 15% drop in price and made new 10-week weekly closing low and closed on the low of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 8.95 will be seen this week. The stock has now dropped 20.8% in price from the 3-year high weekly close seen March, meaning the uptrend is over, especially if the bulls fail to negate the break this week (a green close above 9.19 next Friday). There is pivotal intraweek support at 8.42 that will likely be seen this week but if it holds up, a rally up to 9.69 will likely be seen. There has been no news on the company itself, meaning that this is all market related. The change of trend has now erased any potential upside of consequence, meaning this stock should now be liquidated as soon as an achievable desired price is reached. The $10 demilitarize zone is now going to be resistance and therefore, consideration should be given to liquidating if that price is reached. This is no longer a stock to be traded. Then again, this is a stock that gives a big dividend (about 9%) and for those interested in that, the overall downside objective would be the 7.40 level. You can figure it out yourselves if it is worth keeping. AU made a new 9-month intraweek and weekly closing low and closed in the lower half of the week's trading range, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 15.48 will be seen this week. Nonetheless, the stock is now at the next (and somewhat decent) weekly close support between 14.78 and 15.90 and with Gold looking more positive than negative, the chances of this area holding up and generating a recovery rally are high. A daily close above 16.27 will start giving the bulls some ammunition. Pivotal resistance on that same chart is found at 18.22, which if broken would suggest a rally back up to the $20 demilitarized zone. For the time being though, that is probably the most that can be achieved without some tangible fundamental change in favor of the bulls. CAT generated a new sell signal while also generating a trend change signal, having broken the most recent low weekly close at 197.82 while at the same time closing 21.1% below the all-time high weekly close. The stock closed near the low of the week and further downside below last week's low at 190.87 is expected to be seen this week. Minor to perhaps decent intraweek support is found at 186.98 and decent as well as pivotal at 179.67. By the same token and with the trend change signal given, a drop all the way down to the 200-week MA, currently at 164.96 is likely to be seen at some point over the next few weeks. Short-term pivotal resistance is found at 201.99, which if broken would suggest the 200-day MA, currently at 207.45 would likely occur. There is a high probability that the stock will fall down to the first of the support levels mentioned. If "trading" the stock is what you are doing, taking profits there and re-shorting the stock above $207 would be the way to go. By the same token, the $165 level will remain a viable downside target that is likely to be reached at some point but the bounce up to $207 is not yet a high probability. ENG continued to show weakness, having made a new 5-week low. The stock did close near the low of the week and further downside below last week's low at .9149 is expected to be seen this week. Short-term pivotal support is found at .91, which if broken would give the bears the control back. The probabilities do favor the break happening but I don't believe it will. Pivotal intraweek resistance is found at 1.39 and at this time, there is no much chance that level will be broken either, meaning that the probabilities favor the stock trading between .91 and 1.39 for at least the next 3 weeks. FIX made a new 36-week intraweek and weekly closing low and closed on the low of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 75.24 will be seen this week. The fall did generate a trend change signal with the stock now having dropped 26.1% from the all-time high weekly close. Intraweek support is found at the $70 demilitarized zone and pivotal at 67.91. If 67.91 is broken, the target will be the 200-week MA, currently at 60.46. Intraweek resistance is found at 78.61. If broken, a rally back up to the 200-day MA, currently at 88.03, could occur. Nonetheless, the 81.44 level is where the trend change signal occurred and it will require a fundamental positive for that level to be broken on a weekly closing basis. IDCC dropped 6.1% in value last week alone and closed in the lower half of the week's trading range, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 59.13 will be seen this week. The stock generated a failure signal against the bulls on Thursday, having closed below a previous low daily close support of consequence at 61.28, as well as below a daily close breakout point of importance at the same exact price. That failure signal was confirmed on Friday with a close at 60.78. On an intraweek basis, there is no support until 57.08 is reached. Pivotal support is found at 56.13, which if broken would suggest that a drop down to the $47 could occur. Minor but short-term indicative resistance is found at 61.84 and short-term pivotal at 64.50. Probabilities favor the bears. NEM generated a new 16-week intraweek and weekly closing low but then closed in the middle of the week's trading range, suggesting equal chance of going above last week's high at 66.43 than below last week's low at 61.13. On a chart basis, nothing was accomplished by the bears but given that the bulls failed to follow through on the previous week's positive action, does suggest that the bulls remain on the defensive. One important thing that happened last week was that on Monday the stock got down to the 200-day MA, currently at 64.10, and that line was straddled throughout the week, having closed above the line on 2 of the 5 days last week. The close on Thursday was above the line and the close on Friday below the line, then again none of the closes being decisive on either side. As such, that line will be indicative and likely decisive this week. A rally above 65.05 would favor the bulls while a drop below 61.13 would favor the bears. With Gold leaning toward the upside, it does give the bulls a slight probability in their favor. PLNHF broke another support (at 1.37) this past week and got down to the next support at 1.26 (was the intraweek low last week). Nonetheless, the stock closed near the low of the week and further downside below that level is expected to be seen this week. If that occurs (likely), it will likely cause the stock to drop down to the $1 level and put the stock in a chart hole that would require positive fundamental news to overcome. The stock has now fallen 85% in value in the last 16 months and yet there have been NO negative fundamental changes occurring. It has been downside momentum in the Cannabis industry (no specific negatives to the company itself). It has been expected that this year this industry will turn around and start an uptrend but when that is to happen, is presently an unknown. PRTS generated a positive reversal week, having made a new 4-week low and then closing green. This stock was one of very few stocks that closed green this past week. The green weekly close kept the stock in limbo as it remains below the 200-week MA but gave the bulls a bit of new ammunition, having been successful in staying above the 5-week low daily close at 6.95 all week (close at 6.95 on Monday and at 6.98 on Thursday) and then closing at 7.67 on Friday. The chart is supportive to the bulls but does require that the index market not generate a strong down move this coming week (not probable). Pivotal daily close resistance is found at 8.43 and short-term pivotal support at 6.95. Probabilities slightly favor the bulls. VET has dropped 28.1% in value over the last 2 weeks and did close on Friday near the low of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 18.50 will be seen this week. A new sell signal was generated on Friday, having closed below the 16-week low weekly close at 19.12 (closed at 18.74). This break of support, after two weeks ago breaking the multi-year high weekly close at 23.44, is particularly damaging to the chart, suggesting that a retest of the 200-week MA, currently at 13.80, is now a viable objective to be reached sometime over the next few weeks (or couple of months). Of course, this is somewhat dependent if the break of support is confirmed this coming Friday with another close below 19.12 next Friday. This "same kind" of a break occurred 6 weeks ago and was negated the following week. By the same token, this break has more "juice" to it as Oil is failing and the stock had not generated a failure signal before (as was generated the previous week). As such, this break is more worrisome and tangible. There are 2 intraweek levels to watch this week that will either cement the negative outlook or begin to negate it. To the upside, a rally above 21.00 would take ammunition away from the bears and a break below 17.42 do the exact opposite. Probabilities do favor the bears. VNET generated an relatively uneventful week even though the index market had an eventful down week. The stock dropped 4.1% in price from the previous week's close but nothing was broken on any chart (intraweek, daily close, or weekly close) and did close out the week slightly in the upper half of the week's trading range, suggesting a higher probability of going above last week's high at 5.95 than below last week's low at 5.23. An intraweek break above 6.08 or below 5.22 would be indicative. Probabilities slightly favor the bulls. ZLAB generated a positive reversal week, having made a new 41-month low and then closing green and near the high of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 28.32 will be seen this week. Unfortunately, positive reversals have not recently generated much of anything given that 3 of them have occurred during the past 7 weeks and 4 of them over the past 14 weeks (2 of which were from new multi-year lows), none of which have been confirmed with a break above a previous high. For this reversal to be confirmed, a rally above 38.01 is required. In using the daily chart though, if the bulls are able to rally above 32.10, it will give the bulls some new ammunition. If the intraweek support at 24.50 holds up this week, it would be a new sign that perhaps a bottom has been found, given that in the past reversals, the new support did not hold up. It does need to be mentioned that the $26 level was a clearly established support and pivot point from the start of trading of the stock in 2017. The $26 level was support for 26 weeks and resistance for 52 weeks during the first 18 months of trading and therefore an indicative area. If the bulls can hold above that level while the index market stabilizes, a strong recovery rally will ensue. Probabilities slightly favor the bulls this week simply because the index market has dropped 12% over the past 2 weeks and the stock in now higher than were it closed the previous week, with both of the closes the last 2 weeks above $26. |
1) SNDL - Averaged long at .905 (2 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at .3133. 2) PRTS - Averaged long at 7.29 (2 mentions). Stop loss now at 5.65. Stock closed on Friday at 7.62. 3) SRUTF - Averaged long at .0738 (3 mentions). No stop loss at moment. Stock closed on Friday at .0172. 4) BTZI - Averaged long at .0935 (4 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at .0022. 5) ZLAB - Averaged long at 71.955 (6 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 27.73. 6) AU - Averaged long at 26.184 (4 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 15.94. 7) NEM - Averaged long at 72.133 (3 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 66.85. 8) ENG - Averaged long at 3.378 (5 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at .97. 9) VET - Averaged long at 20.71 (3 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 18.87. 10) VNET - Averaged long at 5.32 (2 mentions). No stop loss now at 4.98. Stock closed on Friday at 5.66. 11) AAPL - Shorted at 150.38. Stop loss at 151.84. Stock closed on Friday at 131.56 12) IDCC - Shorted at 65.89. Stop loss at 67.35. Stock closed on Friday at 60.78. 13) CAT - Shorted at 229.67. Stop loss is at 232.45. Stock closed on Friday at 192.64. 14) FIX - Shorted at 92.55. Stop loss at 93.73. Stock closed on Friday at 75.33. 15) AM - Purchased at 10.25. Liquidated at 10.12. Loss on the trade of $13 per 100 shares. 16) FSLR - Purchased at 62.67. Liquidated at 61.53. Loss on the trade of $114 per 100 shares. 17) SCCO - Purchased at 55.56. Liquidated at 55.90. Profit on the trade of $34 per 100 shares.
Previous Newsletters
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The opinions and commentaries by Mr. De Vito are not a recommendation to buy or sell, but rather
a charting guideline, based on his own knowledge and experience, regarding the stocks he is following or
that are brought to him by others. Mr. De Vito does not presently offer a track record of his trading experiences.
No inference of success and/or failure should be assumed. The
information enclosed above, regarding his background, length of trading, and experience, is correct
but is not meant to suggest, state, or infer any future success in trading, based on his opinions. The information herewith included should only be used by investors who are aware of the risk inherent in securities trading. Mr. De Vito accepts no liability whatsoever for any loss arising from any use of the information and/or comments he supplies. |
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