Issue #780
September 4, 2022
The Oasis

Newsletter


The newsletter with chart analysis for stocks and stock indexes

Stock Indexes Analysis/Evaluation


Indexes Give Clear Signals that they are Heading Lower!

DOW Friday closing price - 31318
SPX Friday closing price - 3924
NASDAQ Friday closing price - 12098
RUT Friday closing price - 1809

For the 3rd straight week in a row the indexes have closed red and on Friday, they closed on the lows of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's lows will be seen this week. The fall has been across the board with the DOW falling 9.8%, the SPX falling 9.2%, the NASDAQ falling 8.6% and the RUT falling 11.4%. The RUT being the leader to the downside is probably the most meaningful as it strongly suggests that this is an overall economy drop and not just a temporary correction or "valley" drop in some areas of the economy.

The drop this week was more indicative than any of the other weeks given that the 2 most important economic reports for the month (ISM Index and Jobs reports) came out and they were unable to give any ammunition to the bulls. As such, the drop was not only chart oriented but fundamental as well.

On the other side of the coin, the indexes have now begun to reach levels where some chart support is found. This was quite evident on Thursday when the indexes reached a minor but established support area and about a 3% bounce occurred from Thursday to Friday. The bulls were unable to get more done, or even confirm the bounce, but it shows that there is buying interest out there as these lower levels are reached.

It is evident by Friday's negative reversal action that these minor intraweek support levels are not likely to hold up, given that the indexes closed on the lows of the week and there is no scheduled economic news on Monday that would give ammunition to the bulls. By the same token, the indexes also reached levels of weekly close support (DOW at 31261, SPX at 3901, and NASDAQ between 11885 and 12105) that will leave the door open for a green close next Friday, if and when the bulls feel that further downside is not supported. Simply stated, the indexes have done enough (the minimum) to support this drop being the required/needed retest of the lows, if and when the short-term bearish seasonal outlook for September is not to be believed or supported.

That scenario (September will not be a down month) is highly unlikely to occur as the fundamentals are presently bearish and not likely to even have a chance to change until September 13th CPI report and September 21st Fed rate chance announcement. As such, the probabilities favor more downside and another red weekly close next Friday.

The probabilities do favor further downside this week and down to the established intraweek support levels (DOW at 30635, SPX at 3810, and NASDAQ at 11492). Reaching those levels this week, or at the latest by the following Monday, has a very high probability rating. Thereafter, the fundamental picture will take over with the CPI report being released the following Tuesday and then the Fed rate decision the Wednesday after.

As far as there being a surprise rally, the chances are small but Thursday's negative reversal highs (DOW at 32026, SPX at 4018, and NASDAQ at 12451) are now pivotal resistance, which if broken would change the chart outlook.

Probabilities favor the bears this week.


GOLD generated the 3rd red close week in a row and convincingly broke the established weekly close support at $1750, meaning that it is clear that the bulls do not yet have a potential "winning hand". In fact, they find themselves in a defensive position where the bears have the edge. Having said that, the bears failed to make a convincing statement this Friday given that Gold fell down to the $1700 level, which is where there is pivotal long term weekly close support, but then failed to break it or even close near it (closed at $1723). This does mean that it is not yet a "done deal" that Gold is not going to generate a recovery rally. On a possible negative note and on an intraweek basis, the downside may not be yet over, given that Gold closed in the lower half of the week's trading range, suggesting a higher probability of going below last week's low at $1699.25 than above last week's high at $1757.85. By the same token and due to the late week rally and the fact that there is no economic news this week that will give ammunition to either the bears nor the bulls, the probabilities favor an uneventful week occurring. If the bulls are able to generate a green weekly close next Friday (above $1723), the edge will shift to the side of the bulls. As long as Gold stays above $1700 on a weekly closing basis, the bulls have a chance of seeing a recovery rally that would open the door for a rally up to the $1840 level or perhaps even up to the $1910 level. Probabilities favor Gold trading between $1697 and $1748 this week.

OIL generated a negative reversal week, having made a new 4-week intraweek high and then going below the previous week's low and closing red. Oil made a new 7-month weekly closing low and in the process, generated a new sell signal, having closed below the 7-month weekly closing low at 89.01, which was created 6-weeks ago. Oil closed near the low of the week and further downside below last week's low at 86.00 is likely to occur this week. There is intraweek support at 85.73 but with the negative reversal seen, as well as there being no fundamental news likely to come out this week, the chart strongly suggests that low will be broken "this week". On an intraweek basis and below 85.73, there is no intraweek support found until 84.05 is reached. Below that, there is further intraweek support at 81.07. On a weekly closing basis though, there is important and likely midterm pivotal support at 83.76, given that was the pivotal high weekly close that when broken, Oil rallied up to 130.50 in a straight up manner over a period of 7 weeks. A retest of that level is now a highly likely event. On the opposite side of the coin, if Oil generates a green daily close on Monday, the bulls may be able to delay the drop to the 84.00 level for a few days or even for a week or two. Probabilities favor the bears.

DOLLAR made a new 17-year high weekly and monthly close and closed on the high of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 109.98 will be seen this week. To find resistance above, I had to go back to 2004 to find any. Intraweek resistance is now found at 112.32 and on a weekly closing basis, it is at 111.13. With the fundamental picture being "continuation of interest rates being raised", it seems that there is nothing that can stop the Dollar from getting up to at least that price. To the downside and on a daily closing basis, support is now found at 108.76 and pivotal at 108.47. Probabilities strongly favor the bulls.

BITCOIN bulls were able to prevent an indicative break of pivotal support this past week, having traded sideways and within a 1000 point trading range between 20574 and 19574. By the same token, the bulls were totally unable to generate any kind of a positive move, meaning that the bears remains with the edge. The 18978 level is pivotal support, both on the daily as well as the weekly closing chart. A break of that support opens the door for a drop all the way down to the 13000 level. On a daily closing basis, there is short-term indicative daily close resistance at 21563. Bitcoin is presently (Saturday) trading at 19802. Probabilities favor the bears.


Stock Analysis/Evaluation
CHART Outlooks

I have no new mentions this week but I am going to be looking to add long positions in Gold Stocks and in LI. Details on these potential purchases can be found below in the Held Stocks Comment section. Other than those particulart stocks, I did not look for anything else given that putting in new short positions or adding to present ones, does not offer a good risk/reward ratio and putting new long positions is not really all the timely as September is just beginning and overall (and only with a few exceptions) not yet the time to consider purchases.

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Updates
Monthly & Yearly Portfolio Results
Closed Trades, Open Positions and Stop Loss Changes

Status of account for 2007: Profit of $9,758 per 100 shares after losses and commissions were subtracted.
Status of account for 2008: Profit of $14,704 per 100 shares after losses and commissions were subtracted.
Status of account for 2009: Profit of $7,523 per 100 shares after losses and commissions were subtracted.
Status of account for 2010: Profit of $24,045 per 100 shares after losses and commissions were subtracted.
Status of account for 2011: Profit of $3,616 per 100 shares after losses and commissions were subtracted.
Status of account for 2012: Profit of $3,399 per 100 shares after losses and commissions were subtracted.
Status of account for 2013: Profit of $15,886 per 100 shares after losses and commissions were subtracted.
Status of account for 2014: Profit of $21,221 per 100 shares after losses and commissions were subtracted.
Status of account for 2015: Profit of $19,190 per 100 shares after losses and commissions were subtracted.
Status of account for 2016: Loss of $15,134 per 100 shares after losses and commissions were subtracted.
Status of account for 2017: Loss of $9,666 per 100 shares after losses and commissions were subtracted.
Status of account for 2018: Profit of $1,637 per 100 shares after losses and commissions were subtracted
Status of account for 2019: Profit of $13,051per 100 shares after losses and commissions were subtracted

Status of account for 2020: Loss of $16,684 per 100 shares after losses and commissions were subtracted.
Status of account for 2021: Profit of $527 per 100 shares after losses and commissions were subtracted.

Status of account for 2022, as of 9/1

Profit of $7,898 using 100 shares per mention (after commissions & losses)

Closed out profitable trades for Augut per 100 shares per mention (after commission)

NONE

Closed positions with increase in equity above last months close minus commissions.

NONE

Total Profit for August, per 100 shares and after commissions $0

Closed out losing trades for August per 100 shares of each mention (including commission)

IR (long) $176
QQQ (short) $30
BGNE (short) $159
DD (short) $190
UCO (long) $26
CAT (short $97

Closed positions with decrease in equity below last months close plus commissions.

PRTS (long) $21
VIPS (long) $15

Total Loss for August, per 100 shares, including commissions $714

Open positions in profit per 100 shares per mention as of 9/1

CAT (short) $1171
QQQ (short) $3355
BGNE (short) $1154
IR (short) $879
BABA (long) $555
AAPL (short) $3171

Open positions with increase in equity above last months close.

ENG (long) $100
SNDL (long) $120
SRUT (long) $22
ZLAB (long) $2840
AAPL (short) $529
CAT (short) $1354
VNET (long) $38
BTZI (long) $50

Total $15,338

Open positions in loss per 100 shares per mention as of 9/1

LI (long) $1

Open positions with decrease in equity below last months close.

SHOP (long) $636
PLNHF (long) $35
LI (long)$407
AU (long) $369
NEM (long) $1960 (

Total $3,408

Status of trades for month of August per 100 shares on each mention after losses subtracted.

Profit of $11,216

Status of account/portfolio for 2022, as of 8/31

Profit of $19,114

per 100 shares.



Updates on Held Stocks

AAPL generated another red weekly close and closed on the low of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 154.67 will be seen this week. The 154.70 level was the first level of intraweek support but is now likely to get broken. As such, the next and stronger level on intraweek support at 150.10 is expected to be reached this week. This level is further supported by a weekly closing high at 149.64, which was the level that when broken, took the stock up to the 176.15 high seen 4 weeks ago. The $150 area is strongly pivotal given that for the last year, that level has been pivotal on 7 different occasions. Over the past 6 months, the stock shows a strong low daily close at 150.62, a strong daily close resistance at 151.21 and 2 other not so strong but indicative closes at 149.24 and at 151.60. The probabilities of reaching this level this week are 80% (or higher). What does happen at this level is short-term pivotal. A confirmed close below 149.24 would suggest the $137 level will be reached and a confirmed successful retest of that level would suggest that the 200-day MA, currently at 161.09 would likely be seen before any new decisions are made. Probabilities do favor the latter scenario though for this week, probabilities favor the bears.

AU generated a new 39-month weekly closing low and did close in the lower half of the week's trading range, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 12.83 will be seen this week. The new weekly closing low does confirm the break of a major weekly closing low at 14.05 that was made 28 months ago. That level was broken 4 weeks ago but then negated. This new low does weaken the chart further. Then again, the intraweek low at 12.66, which was made on March 2020, has not been broken and that was a major low and from which the rally back up to 38.50 was occurred. On that same date, Gold made a major low as well at $1450 and given that Gold is trading at $1722 and has important support at $1700, it makes very little sense that this stock would now be trading at this low level. Nonetheless, with inflation still high (and not likely to drop very much over the next 6 months (or more), this major intraweek low is very unlikely to be broken, suggesting that once again, the stock is likely to negate the break that occurred this past week, much like it negated the break 3 weeks ago. I do believe this stock should be bought at these level but then again, the upside does seem to be limited to a rally back up to the $20 level (by the end of the year) at this time. Evidently, the bulls must prevent the 12.66 level from being broken, if they want to generate a rally. Resistance is found at 15.86 and pivotal at 16.45. Probabilities favor the bulls for a green close next Friday (likely above 14.05).

BABA generated an uneventful inside week but did close near the low of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 90.77 will be seen this week. The previous week, the stock had generated a new 5-week high and a new 13-week low (at 86.71) and because there was no fundamental change/news and no follow through to the upside either, retesting of that low became a need/requirement before the bulls climb aboard. As such, if the 86.71 level is not broken (unlikely given there has been no new news and Chinese stocks are still favorites to rally over U.S. stocks), new buying interest will likely be seen. Pivotal resistance is now found a last week's high at 104.85. Intraweek support should be found at the $90 demilitarized zone. Probability favors the bulls for a green close next Friday.

BGNE generated a new 4-week low weekly close and closed near the low of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 163.99 will be seen this week. The stock did generate a sell signal on the weekly closing chart, having closed below the two previous weekly closes seen over the past 10-weeks at 168.08 and at 166.95 (closed on Friday at 166.85), meaning that a drop down to the last weekly close support at 161.53 is virtually guaranteed. Pivotal intraweek support is found at 160.66, which if broken would have open air below until 136.09 is reached. The daily chart does show important support at 146.52, which is a level that has a high probability of being seen this week or the next at the latest. Pivotal daily close resistance is found at 175.95. Probabilities favor the bears.

CAT generated a spike down type of week, having lost 5.8% in value. In the process, a sell signal was given when it closed below the low weekly close for the past 6 weeks at 185.39 (closed on Friday at 180.83). The stock closed on the low of the week and further downside below last week's low at 179.85 is expected to be seen. If that occurs, the important and short-term pivotal support at 179.67 will be broken, meaning that a drop down to the next intraweek support at 167.08 will become a high possibility given that there is no intraweek support on the weekly chart between those two levels. The 200-week MA is currently at 167.48, meaning that if 167.08 is broken, it could be highly meaningful for the midterm. It would give the bears' total control. In looking at the daily chart, some intraweek support is found at 176.02 and again at 169.29. From each of those levels, a small bounce could occur. To the upside, Friday's high at 185.75 is now short-term resistance. A break of that level would open the door for a rally to 193.10. Probabilities favor the bears and a drop down this week to at least the $176 level.

ENG generated a red weekly close, meaning that the 200-week MA, currently at 1.63, has now been tested twice successfully. Technically, the stock generated a sell signal on the weekly closing chart by closing below the most recent low weekly close at 1.52 (closed at 1.49) but a 3-point break is not a convincing break. Nonetheless, the stock did close on the low of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 1.45, suggesting that further downside below that level will be seen this week. With the indexes likely to go lower, it does suggest the stock will do the same, meaning that a new retest of the 200-day MA, currently at 1.31 is likely to be seen. Nonetheless, the fundamental picture is supportive and the stock has tested the 200-week MA twice, suggesting that a 3rd attempt will happen and that it will be successful in causing a break above the line. Unfortunately, the outlook for the short-term (next 1-2 weeks) is not likely to give the bulls the opportunity to attempt a rally back up to the line until the 3rd week of September, suggesting that for this period of time, a 1.30 to 1.60 sideways trading range is likely to be seen.

LI generated another negative week in which all the previous high weekly closes, including the one from March were broken. The stock has now dropped 35.8% in value over the past 7 weeks and the stock did close on the low of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 26.26 will be seen this week. Simply speaking, negative action has been the key word with the stock. Nonetheless, there are a few positives to look at this week. The first one is that the gap created in June at 26.53 has now been closed. That gap was a magnet due to the recent weakness but that magnet is now gone. Secondly, the stock is now reaching a level of previous intraweek lows (more indicative than previous weekly closing highs) between 25.40 and 25.72 that should hold up at least as far as generating a bounce. More importantly, there is a level of previous low weekly close support at 26.01 that held up for 8 months between May 2021 and January 2022. Lastly, this is a Chinese company that should outperform U.S. stocks over the next few months. It does need to be mentioned that LI was particularly affected by the Covid shutdown in one area in China where the company is located. That announcement was made on September 2nd and affected this stock. On the other side of the coin, there was another company in the same industry (electric cars) and in China as well, that saw a 172% increase in orders this week, meaning that when the Covid restrictions are eased in this city, this stock could rally strongly. To the upside, the 200-day MA, currently at 29.25, is now the short-to-midterm objective. As such, with the stock showing support at 25.40-25.70 and likely to get down below 26.26 this week, a purchase there with an objective of 29.25 would offer a risk factor of less than $1 and a profit potential above $3 per 100 shares. It is worth considering adding positions this week, given that when the stock does begin to recover, it could easily get up to the $32-$34 level, which would make the risk/reward ratio as much as 8-1.

IR had a wild week, having made a new 27-week low on Thursday and then making a new 5-day high on Friday (a rally of 4.5% from Thursday's low) but then closing red and in the lower half of the week's trading range. This does suggest further downside below last week's low at 46.69 will be seen this week. In the process, the previous week's failure signal against the bulls was confirmed, having generated two weeks in row closing below the pivotal weekly close resistance at 48.85. On a daily closing basis, there is minor support at 46.29 and then minor to decent at 44.90. Using the weekly chart, there is no intraweek support until the 44.85-45.02 level is reached, meaning that is the likely objective for the week. A break below 44.85 would leave open air below until 41.60 is reached. Short-term pivotal intraweek resistance is now found at Friday's high at 49.43. Probabilities favor the bears.

NEM generated yet another new 29-month intraweek and weekly closing low and closed near the low of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 40.27 will be seen this week. The stock has now fallen a total of 53.4% over the past 20 weeks and over the past 14 weeks, it has been straight down with no rallies above a previous week's high seen. It does not get worse than that. Having said that, the stock is now reaching a level of support around the 39.50 level that was important for a period of 3 years and when broken and then tested successfully, generated the rally all the way up to the $83 all-time high. Such a level is not likely to get broken unless Gold breaks down totally. It does seem likely though, that the stock will get down to the 39.50-40.00 level this week but should then begin some type of recovery rally, if for no other reason that this type of fall is totally out of the ordinary and not supported by the fundamentals. In addition, when the stock was trading at $39, Gold was trading at $1300 and Gold is now at $1700, meaning there is no reason for the stock to be at this price. Pivotal resistance is presently found at 44.90. Probabilities favor the bears at the beginning of the week but the bulls for the end of the week.

PLNHF generated a new 6-week intraweek and weekly closing low and closed on the low of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 1.40 will be seen this week. A sell signal was given on the daily closing chart, given that the stock closed below the most recent 7-week daily closing low at 1.48. Some intraweek support is found at 1.37 and then nothing until 1.26. Pivotal intraweek resistance is found at 1.77. Probabilities favor the bears.

QQQ continued lower, having generated the 3rd red weekly close in a row. The stock closed near the low of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 292.95 will be seen this week. Using the weekly chart, there is no intraweek support until the 280.21 level is reached. Nonetheless and looking at the daily closing chart, there is a fair amount of support between 294.37 and 295.35 and then again at 287.35, meaning that heading lower this week is not necessarily going to be easy or fast. Daily close resistance is now found at 307.38, which if broken would change the short-term outlook. Evidently the close on Tuesday will be important as the stock closed on Friday at 295.17. Probabilities favor the bears.

SHOP made a new 34-month weekly closing low and closed on the low of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 29.82 will be seen this week. With the fact that the stock had broken out a few weeks ago, but then failed in the breakout, the multiple weekly close bottom on the weekly closing chart (31.67, 31.41, and 31.29) became a magnet for breakage. That triple bottom has now been broken. I did state last week that there is support at 28.21 that should not be broken, meaning that some consideration can be given for purchasing this stock under last week's low at 29.82 and using a stop loss at 28.11. the upside objective at this time and to be reached before the end of the year is the $40 level, meaning that any purchases done here will offer at least a 5-1 risk/reward ratio. By the same token and with September still looking to be a negative month, purchase can be put aside for another week or two.

VNET reported earnings on Tuesday and they were slightly lower than expected and the stock reacted slightly negative. Nonetheless, the stock ended up having an inside week, meaning that the earnings report did not generate any new buying or selling interest. As such, the stock continues to trade sideways without any clear view of a breakout or breakdown occurring anytime soon. For the past 8 weeks, the stock has traded between 4.47 and 5.60 without giving any clues as to whether a breakout or breakdown is to occur. Several companies lowered their ratings on the company they remain either a buy or a hold with the lowest rating price being $6.50 (down from $9). This does suggest that more of the same will continue the rest of the year. As such, consideration can be given to liquidating the positions at a small loss (average entry prise is 5.32 and stock closed on Friday at 4.97) and putting the money to work elsewhere until such a time that some form of breakout occurs.

ZLAB generated an uneventful inside week but did close in the upper half of the week's trading range, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 48.51 will be seen this week. The stock has now been up to the 200-day MA, currently at 46.29, 3 times and it closed at the line on Friday (closed at 46.21), meaning that if the stock does go above last week's high this week, a break of the line will occur. Such an event would likely bring in new buying interest. An intraweek rally above 48.69 would begin to confirm the breakout of the MA and a break above 50.89 would be clear confirmation of further upside to come. Upside objective at this time is the $60 level. Pivotal support is now found at 42.71, which if broken would change the chart for the short-term at least. Probabilities favor the bulls.


1) SNDL - Averaged long at 9.05 (2 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 2.68

2) SRUTF - Averaged long at .0738 (3 mentions). No stop loss at moment. Stock closed on Friday at .0152.

3) BTZI - Averaged long at .0935 (4 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at .01.

4) ZLAB - Averaged long at 71.955 (6 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 46.21.

5) AU - Averaged long at 26.184 (4 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 14.42.

6) BABA - Purchased at 89.86. Stop loss at 86.61. Stock closed on Friday at 91.80.

7) NEM - Averaged long at 61.492 (5 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 41.67.

8) ENG - Averaged long at 3.378 (5 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 1.49.

9) VNET - Averaged long at 5.32 (2 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 4.97.

10) AAPL - Averaged short at 158.973 (3 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 155.81.

11) CAT - Averaged short at 213.045 (2 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 191.92.

12) LI - Averaged long at 33.846 (3 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 26.58.

13) SHOP - Averaged long at 30.17 (2 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 30.11.

14) QQQ - Shorted at 332.82. No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 295.17.

15) BGNE - Shorted at 183.20. No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 166.88.

16) IR - Shorted at 50.98. Averaged short at 51.715 (2 mentions). Stop loss now at 51.35. Stock closed on Friday at 47.74.

17) AAPL - Averaged short at 168.55. Covered shorts at 155.29. Profit on the trade of $2625 per 100 shares (2 mentions).


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Disclaimer

The opinions and commentaries by Mr. De Vito are not a recommendation to buy or sell, but rather a charting guideline, based on his own knowledge and experience, regarding the stocks he is following or that are brought to him by others. Mr. De Vito does not presently offer a track record of his trading experiences. No inference of success and/or failure should be assumed. The information enclosed above, regarding his background, length of trading, and experience, is correct but is not meant to suggest, state, or infer any future success in trading, based on his opinions.

The information herewith included should only be used by investors who are aware of the risk inherent in securities trading. Mr. De Vito accepts no liability whatsoever for any loss arising from any use of the information and/or comments he supplies.




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