Issue #778
August 21, 2022 | Newsletter
The newsletter with chart analysis for stocks and stock indexes |
Stock Indexes Analysis/Evaluation
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| Signs Seen that the Rally has found a Top!
DOW Friday closing price - 33706
All the indexes generated a negative reversal week, having made a new 17 or 18-week high and then closing red and on the low (or near the low) of last week's trading range, suggesting further downside below last week's lows (DOW at 33582, SPX at 4218, NASDAQ at 13210 and RUT at 1952) will be seen this week.
There was no catalytic news to engender this negative reversal, suggesting that the buyers have run out of ammunition/momentum and that the sellers have stepped back in. With no possibly catalytic reports scheduled for another two weeks, it does suggest that the bears have the edge as the indexes are now in an overbought condition and the recent lows require a retest. The SPX and NASDAQ officially got into a bear market that is unlikely to generate further buying until the recent lows have been tested successfully.
It is also very important to note than it was the 200-day MA's that were resistance last week. This means that it was not established resistance levels that stopped the rally but trend resistance lines that stopped the rally. It was the "trend" that was in play last week. The DOW did get above the line which is presently at 33858 (high last week was 34281), but the SPX just got up to the line, which is at 4320 (high last week was 4325). The NASDAQ failed to get close to the line as the line is at 13998 and the high last week was 13720. This is also indicative, given that bulls use the NAZ as their measuring stick for bullishness and use the SPX as the arbiter of the market. The failure of the NAZ to outperform either index is indicative of weakness.
The bulls find themselves in a bad chart situation given that there are no established support levels of consequence nearby. In the DOW, the first level of some established intraweek strength is at 33150 (556 points below Friday's close. In the SPX, there is some established intraweek support at 4161 and at 4114 (67 and 114 points below Friday's close. In the NASDAQ, there is some intraweek support at 13020 (222 points below Friday's close). All of these support levels will be magnets this week and likely to be reached. It should also be mentioned that slightly below these levels there are recent lows that if broken, would trigger additional selling. For example, in the NAZ, there is minor but pivotal support between 12809 and 12937, If that level is broken, there is open air below until at least the 12000 level is reached.
It is evident that new rally highs would negate the chart picture, meaning that last week's highs are now decent and pivotal resistance. Nonetheless, there is very little possibility of the bulls even attempting to rally until the recent gaps below are filled (DOW at 32877, SPX at 4137 and NASDAQ at 13095). This means that the bears will wake up on Monday with the odds fully stacked against them. The economic reports due out this week are: 1) Home Sales on Tuesday, 2) Durable Orders on Wednesday, 3) 2nd report on GDP on Thursday, and 4) Personal Income and Spending as well as PCE prices on Friday. None of these reports are generally catalytic enough to generate strong action in one direction or the other. The important thing to mention is that there is nothing due out on Monday, meaning that Monday it will be all about the charts unless some over the weekend report from China or of worldwide consequence unexpectedly comes out. Probability favors the bears.
OIL generated a new 28-week intraweek low but the bulls were able to keep Oil above the low weekly close seen 3 weeks ago at 89.07, suggesting that the bears have begun to run out of ammunition for much further downside. Oil did close near the high of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 92.09 is likely to be seen this week. Oil had been on a persistent move down as it had generated 7 weeks in a row with lower highs than the previous week and a 24.9% drop in price occurred. There is decent and pivotal weekly close support at 83.79 that is still in the crosshairs but if Oil does go above last week's high this week, the downtrend will begin to ebb a bit, meaning that the action for the next 2-4 weeks is likely to be somewhat sideways with a slight bearish tone. There is a fair amount of daily close resistance between 94.29 and 95.46 that is unlikely to be broken at this time without some fundamental positive coming out. That area is likely to be the upside objective for the next few weeks. By the same token, there has not yet been any clear sign that the downtrend is over, meaning that a drop down to the 83.76 level (on both the daily and weekly closing charts) remains a good possibility. As such, the chart suggests that an $84-$95 trading range will be seen at least until the end of September. With Oil closing at 89.97 on Friday, it means it is in the middle of this trading range ($5 to the upside and $5 to the downside).
DOLLAR made a new 17-year high weekly close and closed on the high of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 108.21 will be seen this week. This move does give the bulls a strong edge for continuing higher but not yet was a statement made as the weekly close resistance is at the $108 level (107.94 to be exact) and the break was not by a sufficient amount to say it will continue higher. In addition, the intraweek high seen 7-weeks ago is at 109.29 and that has not yet been broken, meaning the bulls have more to do. It also needs to be mentioned that 19-years ago, there was a major weekly closing low in the Dollar at 109.26 that would also need to be broken (generate a failure signal against the bears) in order to open the door for a retest of the all-time intraweek high at 121.05. The fundamental situation is also not all that clear given that the Fed is expected to raise rates up to 3.50% from the current 2.25% but that is not yet a "done deal" as it could be higher or not as high as of this writing. As such, it is unlikely the bulls will get as aggressive as they need to be to break this resistance area clearly. One thing that is clear though, the bulls cannot falter here as any red close next Friday would be seen in a negative light.
BITCOIN generated a negative reversal week, having made a new 9-week intraweek high but then dropping 17.6% from that high and generating a failure signal on the daily closing chart, having closed yesterday at 20839, which is below a previous daily close support level at 21271 as well below the original breakout point at 21620. Bitcoin is presently trading at 21172 and if it closes here (or lower) on Sunday, a sell signal and a failure signal will also be given on the weekly closing chart. This was not a total surprise given the inability of the bulls to rally Bitcoin over the past few weeks with no established resistance until the 28000 level was reached (high of the rally was 25203). This move down does fit in with the weakness in Gold and the strength of the Dollar. With both of those having a pivotal week ahead, I would have to say the Bitcoin will end up doing the same as Gold and the opposite of the Dollar. With those two products being much more important to Bitcoin, watching them is what needs to be done.
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Stock Analysis/Evaluation
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CHART Outlooks
I have no new mentions this week. Nonetheless, I do plan to add to my short positions and liquidate some long positions given that the signs are there that this rally has found a top and that a retest of the July lows is to be seen. I will be evaluating the action and if I find any other stocks to short (other than the ones presently short), I will mention them on the message board.
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Updates
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| Updates on Held Stocks |
Closed Trades, Open Positions and Stop Loss Changes |
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AAPL generated a negative reversal week, having made a new 19-week high but then closing red and on the low of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 171.31 will be seen this week. The rally did accomplish closing a gap between 173.63 and 174.42 and having done that but not breaking the pivotal weekly close resistance at 174.72, it can be surmised that chart is now fulfilled to the upside and that a retest of the 60-week intraweek low at 129.07 will now occur. In using the weekly intraweek chart, there is some support at 167.46. Nonetheless, if that level is broken, there is open air all the way down to 154.70. With this negative reversal, the 200-day MA, currently at 160.46 is a target that is likely to be reached within 2-3 weeks. A retest of that line is now a chart requirement for the bulls to get new ammunition to attempt to renew the uptrend. Such a drop could be considered a retest of the $129 low. Evidently, pivotal resistance will now be found at last week's high at 176.15. Probabilities favor the bears. AU generated a red week and a close near the low of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 14.78 will be seen this week. Nonetheless, this move down was not unexpected given that the stock had generated a gap up on the weekly chart between 15.01 and 15.49 and there was no fundamental reason for that gap to stay unclosed. In addition, the stock generated a failure signal against the bulls 2 weeks ago when it closed above 14.78 and a retest of the validity of the failure signal is normal and common. With the stock closing on Friday at 14.97, it means the failure signal was not negated and if a green close occurs next Friday, it will become a successful retest of the support at 14.78 and should bring new buying interest. On an intraweek basis, there is support at 14.11 that should not be broken. Pivotal resistance is now found at 16.10. Probabilities favor the bears at the beginning of the week but the bulls for the end of the week. BGNE followed through to the downside after the previous week's negative reversal and generated a 2nd red week and closed near the low of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 171.75 will be seen this week. The stock has now fallen 17.2% from the high made 2 weeks ago. The stock did close near the high of the day on Friday, suggesting the first course of action for the week will be to the upside. There is intraweek resistance at 181.83, at 189.35 and at 196.40. There is short-term pivotal support at 161.08 and then more indicatively pivotal at 154.80 that if broken, would suggest a drop down to 136.09 would be seen. In looking at the weekly chart, the stock remains in a short-term uptrend (in spite of the 17.2% drop in price. Nonetheless and on that chart, the 161.08 level is pivotal, and if broken would turn the chart bearish once again. Probabilities are slightly in favor of the bulls but the key word is "slightly". CAT generated a negative reversal week, having gone above the previous week's high but then closing red and in the lower half of the week's trading range, suggesting a higher probability of going below last week's low at 193.07 than above last week's high at 198.4 0. The stock has shown some resilience of late (contrary to the weakness seen after the earnings report in June) as the stock has traded mostly sideways during the past 3 weeks and has not generated any move down of consequence during this period of time. Nonetheless and on the other side of the coin, the bulls have not been able to break any weekly intraweek or weekly close resistance levels of consequence, meaning that there is still innate weakness in the stock. The stock generated the smallest trading range and smallest volume seen since February 2021 (18 months) and it seems the traders are waiting for some catalyst before making any decisions from here. Simply stated, what the market does, the stock is likely to follow. The stock did generate a red weekly close and that means that the high weekly close for the past 9 weeks at 198.25 has now been tested successfully given that the previous week's close was at 196.84. As such, the probabilities favor the bears. On a daily closing basis, some support is found between 188. 94 and 189.84 and then strongly pivotal at 182.87. As far as pivotal resistance on a daily closing basis, that is found at 198.25, which if broken would make the 200-day MA, currently at 204.23, the target. Once again, the probabilities favor the bears. ENG generated a negative reversal week, having made a new 24-week intraweek high and then closed red and in the lower half of the week's trading range, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 1.36 will be seen this week. The stock did spike up to 2.24 this past week on news that a new $20 million 5-year contract with the U.S. Army Corps had been finalized, meaning that the fundamental news continues to be positive. The stock is famous for spikes of this nature due to short covering but in the end, most spikes do not see follow through. With the red weekly close though, it shows that the previous week's close at 1.62 has become the 2nd successful retest of the 200-week MA. It normally takes 3 attempts before such an important long-term resistance level is broken, suggesting that if there is another attempt (likely) that the line will be broken. The only question being "when will that attempt happen". There is intraweek support at 1.33 and the 200-day MA is currently at 1.35. This means that if there is only a small follow through to the downside this week and the 1.33 level is not broken, the bulls will enter in a stronger way. Certainly, the fundamental news is supportive and the stock has traded above the 200-day MA for 11-days straight, meaning that the probabilities favor the bulls at this time. Daily close resistance is at 1.72, which if broken would take the stock up to the next daily close resistance at 2.17 and if that is broken, the next objective would be 3.17. A weekly close below 1.29 would damage the chart on a short-term basis. LI continued lower and did generate a 3rd failure signal against the bulls on the weekly closing chart. The stock closed on the low of the week and further downside below last week's low at 29.71 is expected to be seen this week. Nonetheless, the stock has now arrived at a level of weekly close support at the $30 demilitarized zone (and down to 28.70) that is decent as it has provided support on 5 different occasions over the past 30 months. Up until now, all weekly close supports were previous high weekly closes. This support is stronger as it comes from low weekly closes. By the same token and on an intraweek basis, the support is down around the $28 demilitarized zone, meaning a drop down to that level is likely to be seen this week. Having closed on Friday at 29.94, the probabilities do favor a green weekly close next Friday. With all these failure signals given though, the upside objective of a recovery phase has now dropped down to the 32.43 to 34.42 level (based on a weekly close), meaning that the reasons for continuing to trade this stock have diminished substantially. On an intraweek basis, the stock could end up rallying back up to 34.83 and if that occurs, consideration should be given to liquidating the positions and looking elsewhere. IR generated a negative reversal week, having made a new 26-week high but then closing red and near the low of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 51.23 will be seen this week. The red close is not yet indicative that the rally has ended but the reality is that no red close should have occurred this past week as there was no established weekly close resistance until 54.73 was reached. The red close makes the previous week's close at 53.60 into a successful retest of that resistance. Nonetheless, the stock is facing an important and likely pivotal week given that the 200-day MA, currently at 51.06, is a line that was broken to the upside 8 days ago and if broken to the downside would negate the breakout. In addition, there is some pivotal weekly close support at 50.87, which if broken would suggest the recovery rally is over and that a retest of the July low at 39.78 is to occur. Intraweek support is found at 49.72 and then open air until the $45 level is reached. Evidently, last week's high at 54.14 is short-term pivotal resistance that if broken would give the bulls further ammunition. Probabilities slightly favor the bulls but the key word is "slightly". NEM generated a new 20-month intraweek and weekly closing low and closed on the low of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 43.42 will be seen this week. In looking at the recent chart, this move down is a strong negative as the bulls were unable to rally to retest the break of the 200-week MA (when Gold was rallying) and now the stock breaks a bearish flag formation that offers a downside target of 37.68. As such, the short-term outlook looks quite bearish. Nonetheless and looking at the weekly closing chart going back 20 years, the area between $40 and $44 has been decent support on countless of occasions. In addition, the 44.29 level was the high for 7 years (from 2013 to 2020) and if that level breaks convincingly, it would mean that the chart is looking very negative. Then again, the stock has already dropped 15.3% in value since the earnings report, and it is unlikely that much further downside can occur given that this area has been support for much of the last 20 years. Keep in mind that in 2016 (when the weekly closing high at 44.29 was made), Gold was trading at $1300 and it is now at $1760. As such, it is difficult to visualize further downside of consequence occurring. Last but not least, last week on the 17th it was noticed that there were some big buys of call options on the stock (either an institution or a wealthy man) and that is usually indicative of some inside knowledge of something positive that is happening or is to happen to the company. This was abnormal enough that it was given as news of consequence. Anyhow, this area around the $44 level is very important to the chart. The stock did close at 43.55 on Friday, which is below both the 44.29 and the 43.69 (pivotal low made on July 2012) levels, meaning that if the bulls have any power, a green close is a must for next Friday. Based on this scenario and using the July 2012 close at 43.69, intraweek support should be found between 42.07 and 42.35. As far as the upside is concerned, rating companies have stated that the upside target is anywhere from $52 to $60. The chart suggest that a rally back up to the $57 level can occur, if and when this area of support holds up. The 200-week MA is currently at 52.78, suggesting that would be the minimum seen if the stock recovers here. It is very dicey picture that does favor the bears. Nonetheless, there are valid reasons (mentioned above) to believe that the bulls will "pull it off" and rally the stock from here. PLNHF generated a negative week with a 2nd red close in a row and a close on the low of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 1.59 will be seen this week. The action seen the last 2 weeks means that the bears are still in control and that they will be until such a time that the bulls are able to generate a weekly close above the 2.04 level. On a weekly closing basis, there is support at 1.58 and a bit stronger and more short-term indicative at 1.50. On a daily closing basis, pivotal support is found at 1.46, which if broken would give back the short-term control to the bears. The company reported earnings this week that were a bit lower than expected but guidance was higher than expected, meaning that the future is a bit brighter but not so much the present. On the way down to the low at 1.08, the stock spent 5 weeks trading between 1.37 and 1.58. The probabilities favor the same thing happening over the next 5 weeks (until the end of September when the downtrend seasonality of the market ends). PRTS disappointed this week given that it was unable to follow through to the upside after closing on the high of the week and generated a red week with a close on the low of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 8.10 will be seen this week. The 9.24 level has now been established as a resistance level of consequence as that has been the high the past 3 weeks. The bulls were able to prevent a sell signal from being given as the weekly close support at 7.98 was not broken and neither was the 200-week MA, currently at 8.06 (stock closed at 8.16 on Friday). Nonetheless, the 200-day MA, currently at 9.05, has now been tested on 7 different occasions in the past 18 days and the bulls were unable to even close above the line on 1 occasion. On an intraweek basis, there is short-term pivotal support at 7.92 that if broken would suggest that for the next few weeks no new attempt to break the MA line will occur. It does seem that until the end of September (seasonal down period), the bulls are not going to be successful in taking the stock higher. As such, consideration should be given to taking profits and looking to re-enter near the end of September. QQQ generated negative reversal week, having made a new 18-week high but then closing red and on the low of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 322.08 will be seen this week. There is some intraweek support at 317.45 but if that breaks, there is open air below until 297.45 is reached. Even then, that support is old. Using the recent chart, there is no support below 317.45 until 280.21 is reached. There is an open gap at 319.03 that should be targeted for closure this week. A break below the most recent intraweek low at 315.42 will leave the bulls with no support levels below where they can get together and defend the stock. Intraweek resistance is found at 330.29 and then short-term pivotal at last week's high at 334.42. A break of that resistance will open the door for a rally to the 200-day MA, currently at 341.10. Probabilities favor the bears. SHOP generated a sell signal on the daily closing on Friday when it closed below the most recent low daily close at 36.75. This sell signal does suggest that a drop back down to the $30-$31 level will be seen before any new attempt to rally will occur. It is evident that the stock has ended its attempt to go up to the $50 level and no new attempt will likely be seen until the end of the seasonal down period occurs. It is possible (and perhaps even likely) that a rally back up to 36.75 will be seen at some point this week and consideration should be given to liquidating the positions and taking profits. Probabilities favor the bears. VNET generated a negative reversal week, having gone above the previous week's high and also going below the previous week's low and closed near the low of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 4.94 will be seen this week. Nonetheless, the stock continues to trade sideways without any clear view of a breakout or breakdown occurring anytime soon. Pivotal support is found at 4.45 and short-term pivotal resistance is found at 5.60. Given the outlook for the overall market for the next 6 weeks, it is likely that the stock will continue trading in that trading range. A break of either level will give new ammunition to the side that is broken. At this time, the bears have the edge but not sufficiently to consider liquidating the positions at this time. ZLAB generated a second red weekly close in a row and closed in the lower half of the week's trading range, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 41.04 will be seen next week. Nonetheless and considering that the overall market is likely to head lower, the chart continues to slightly favor the bulls. The fundamental outlook for the company remains positive (especially at these prices) and it is possible that the stock will outperform the general market. Pivotal intraweek support that would break this outlook is found at 37.20. A break of that support would give the short-term edge to the bears. Pivotal resistance is at 50.89, which also represents the 200-day MA, which is currently at 48.58. Probabilities favor the stock trading between $39 and $45.50 for the next few weeks. The chart slightly favor the bulls.
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1) SNDL - Averaged long at 9.05 (2 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 2.90 2) PRTS - Averaged long at 7.29 (2 mentions). Stop loss now at 7.65. Stock closed on Friday at 8.16. 3) SRUTF - Averaged long at .0738 (3 mentions). No stop loss at moment. Stock closed on Friday at .0123. 4) BTZI - Averaged long at .0935 (4 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at .005. 5) ZLAB - Averaged long at 71.955 (6 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 42.82. 6) AU - Averaged long at 26.184 (4 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 14.97. 7) NEM - Averaged long at 61.492 (5 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 43.55. 8) ENG - Averaged long at 3.378 (5 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 1.52. 9) VNET - Averaged long at 5.32 (2 mentions). No stop loss now at 4.98. Stock closed on Friday at 5.05. 10) AAPL - Shorted at 174.41. Averaged short at 163.686 (3 mentions). Stock closed on Friday at 171.52. 11) CAT - Shorted at 196.42. Averaged short at 213.045 (2 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 195.60. 12) LI - Averaged long at 36.38 (2 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 29.94. 13) SHOP - Averaged long at 30.17 (2 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 34.20. 14) QQQ - Shorted at 332.82. No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 322.86. 15) BGNE - Shorted at 183.20. No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 174.84. 16) IR - Shorted at 52.45. Stop loss at 54.24. Stock closed on Friday at 51.82. 17) UCO - Purchased at 33.05. Liquidated at 32.78. Loss on the trade of $27 per 100 shares.
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The opinions and commentaries by Mr. De Vito are not a recommendation to buy or sell, but rather
a charting guideline, based on his own knowledge and experience, regarding the stocks he is following or
that are brought to him by others. Mr. De Vito does not presently offer a track record of his trading experiences.
No inference of success and/or failure should be assumed. The
information enclosed above, regarding his background, length of trading, and experience, is correct
but is not meant to suggest, state, or infer any future success in trading, based on his opinions. The information herewith included should only be used by investors who are aware of the risk inherent in securities trading. Mr. De Vito accepts no liability whatsoever for any loss arising from any use of the information and/or comments he supplies. |
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