Issue #777
August 14, 2022 | Newsletter
The newsletter with chart analysis for stocks and stock indexes |
Stock Indexes Analysis/Evaluation
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| Bulls Stretch the Rally but now Facing Difficult Chart Resistance.
DOW Friday closing price - 33761
The indexes received good news this past week (in the form of lower inflation numbers) and continued higher for the 4th week in a row. The amount of rally seen has generated both a failure of the downtrend signal as well as a new bull trend signal in the NASDAQ. The index closed above the downtrend signal price at 13258, thus giving a failure signal against the bears but also closed 20.4% above the low weekly close at 11265, seen the second week of June, meaning that a bull trend signal has now been given. The SPX did negate its trend change signal 3 4 weeks ago when it generated a weekly close above 3812 but no new bull-trend signal has been given yet as the index finds itself 16.8% above is June low weekly close. The DOW has never generated any trend change signal.
What this all means is that the market is "deeply fractured" by industry and that is definitely a consequence of the pandemic and the unique problems and solutions that it has brought. On a negative note though, it also means that making overall market decisions is extremely difficult.
In reading about the fundamentals of what is happening, inflation and the Fed approach to it, is what is driving this market and in that respect, there is absolutely nothing clearly defined on either side. For example, Oil is presently at the low end of its recent trading range and everything I read about the fundamentals of Oil, it suggests that the probability of much further downside are very limited. Oil closed on Friday at $92 and there is room for an additional $8 down but on the other side of the coin, there is room for an additional $23 to the upside, meaning that based on Oil alone, the chances of higher prices versus lower prices favor the bulls 3-1. The Fed has already hiked interest rates 4 times in 2022 and the Fed rate is now at 2.25%. An additional 2-3 rate hikes more are expected with the Fed rate target being 3.25-3.50%. This does suggest that the tightening sequence is more than half-way there. This scenario does keep inflation even or rising and not necessarily going down any further than what was reported this past week.
As such and with interest rates going to be much higher than what they have been for the entire 13-year bull market run and inflation also being higher for the same period of time, it seems almost totally impossible that the market will resume the uptrend. It does suggest that at the very best, the market is trading sideways and at the worst, it will head back down and make new lows. Certainly, the seasonal tendency for the index market to head down in August and September is going to influence the minds of the traders and there is still an additional 2 and one-half weeks of trading in this month.
In looking at the charts and what happened this past week, given that the important short-term resistance levels were broken, the 200-day MA's are now the target. In the DOW, that line is at 33905 and that is only 150 points above Friday's close. In the SPX that line is at 4328 and that is only 48 points above Friday's close. In the NASDAQ, that line is at 14056 and that is only 390 points above Friday's close. In a normal downtrend or sideways market that-is-in-a-recovery-phase, the 200-day MA's are considered to be difficult (if not close to impossible) resistance levels to break. This is especially true the first time they are reached. To break such a line, additional bullish fundamentals have to be released and with no important reports due out for another 3 weeks, such a line will generate some strong selling interest. In addition and more importantly, the recent lows show no successful retest of them, meaning that the picture strongly favors the bears for the next 3 weeks, if and when the MA lines are reached this week.
One important factor that is in play and that favors the bears is that all indexes show a gap below that will be a target for closure at some point in the very near future. In the DOW that gap is down at 32877, in the SPX that gap is at 4186 and in the NASDAQ, the gap is at 13095. Just below the gap area there is pivotal intraweek resistance at 32387, at 4079, and at 12945 respectively. If those support levels are broken, there is basically open air down to 30365, to 3810 and to 11488 also respectively. Simply stated, the bulls are in a situation where they need to keep going higher without stopping because at the first sign of new resistance, there are no supports below they can depend on to find strong buying coming in.
Given the fundamental picture that is unlikely to get better than what was reported this past week, the indexes still being in a short-to-midterm downtrend (facing an important resistance area - the 200-day MA's), and the seasonal tendency for a down market in August and September (which has no reason to fail), I have to say that the probabilities favor the bears, once the upside objective are reached (likely to be early this week).
OIL generated an uneventful inside week but did generate a green weekly close as well as a close in the upper half of last week's trading range, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 95.05 will be seen this week. Nonetheless, Oil closed on the low of the day on Friday, suggesting the first course of business for the week will be to the downside and below Friday's low at 91.17. It is interesting to note that the 200-day MA is currently at 89.25 and that the line, which has not been broken for the past 20 months, was tested successfully 2-weeks ago with the low daily close at 88.54 that occurred on August 4th, which was then followed by 6 closes above the line thereafter. It is probable that this week that line will once again be tested and if it holds up (likely), will generate a rally upward with an objective of a rally up to the $105 level (within 2-3 weeks). Any confirmed daily close (2 days in a row) below the 88.54 level will likely bring in additional selling interest. The chart suggests that Oil will get down this week below the $90 level by a few cents and then turn around. Purchases of Oil or Oil stocks should be considered this week. The outlook given previously for a drop down to the $84 level is now much less likely to occur and if it does occur, it would be damaging to the chart, at least for the short-term. The 200-day MA is an important chart-measuring tool that suggests the low for this down draft has been found. Possible trading range for the week is 89.85 to 97.55.
DOLLAR continued lower and did get down to the downside objective mentioned 2 weeks ago at 104.66 but then turned around to still close red but in the middle of the week's trading range, suggesting equal chances of going below last week's low at 104.64 or above last week's high at 106.80. Given that the downside objective has been reached, the probabilities favor the bulls this week and a rally above 106.80. Short-term intraweek pivotal resistance is found at 106.93, which if broken would suggest a rally up to 108.00 level could occur. The bulls continue to have the edge but overall the chart situation has not changed as far as the $108 level being longer term pivotal support. By the same token, the 104.64 is now considered short-term pivotal resistance.
BITCOIN generated a new 8-week intraweek high and is trading near that high on Saturday, suggesting the weekly close will also be a new 8-week high (2-weeks ago it was at 23639 and presently trading at 24448). Nonetheless, the gains being seen during the past 8 weeks have been disappointing given that there is no established resistance levels close by above and if a major bottom had been established, Bitcoin should now be trading near the 28000 level. Then again, Bitcoin has established that the bear market over as it closed 24% above the low last week and will confirm that signal again this week, suggesting that further upside is likely to continue. Short-term pivotal intraweek support is found at 22665, which if broken would be a sign that the recovery rally is at least temporarily over and that sideways trading would be in effect.
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Stock Analysis/Evaluation
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CHART Outlooks
I have no new mentions this week but I am planning to do a lot of trading on the held stocks. I am looking to add shorts in AAPL and CAT and re-enter the shorts placed last week in DD and IR (got covered on Friday). In addition, I am considering liquidating the positions in SHOP and perhaps even adding a few short-term-long shares in AU and NEM. I have some desired entry (and exit) points on all stocks and they are all mentioned below in the Held Stocks Comment section. On the 2 covered shorts, I will mention the desired entry points after I see the action at the beginning of the week.
I do believe this week is a week that trading should occur given the outlooks mentioned above in the index and products markets. This week offers some clearly defined entry points and objectives as well as good probability ratings due to the chart pictures involved.
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Updates
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| Updates on Held Stocks |
Closed Trades, Open Positions and Stop Loss Changes |
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AAPL continued higher, having generated another green weekly close (the 6th in a row) and closing on the high of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 172.17 will be seen this week. Nonetheless, the fundamentals of the company have actually deteriorated and having rallied 33% in value over the past 9 weeks and not showing any successful retest of the low made on June 16th at 129.04, it is highly unlikely that much further upside can be seen. The rally seen during this period of time has been mostly chart oriented given that resistance levels were broken that generated computer buying. Nonetheless, since the stock is now reaching an established resistance level/area of consequence between 174.42 and 176.65, which was resistance for 3 months between January and April of this year, the bulls will need fundamental positive news to come out to break that area and that is just not available. There is a gap u at 174.42 that is likely to be targeted this week for closure but once that gap is closed, I do believe the bears will come out in force. There is an open gap to the downside at 165.82 that will be targeted for closure and there is minor intraweek support at 163.25 that if broken would offer a retest of the 200-day MA, currently at 159.88. All of this is possible to be seen this week or by next week. Probabilities now favor the bears. AU confirmed the failure signal against the bears on Friday, having made a new 8-week intraweek and weekly closing high this past week, which was the 2nd week closing above the 14.78 level. The stock closed in the middle of the week's trading range, suggesting equal chances of going above last week's high at 16.45 or going below last week's low at 15.49. The stock did generate a gap between 15.01 and 15.49 that normally would be a magnet for closure. Nonetheless, the oversold condition, as well as the short-term upside objective of the stock, in conjunction with what is happening to Gold, does suggest that closure of this gap will not be addressed at this time but likely in a month or two. It is therefore likely that immediate further upside will be seen this week. To the upside there is minor intraweek resistance at 17.28 and then nothing until 18.40. The 200-week MA is currently at 19.76 and the 200-day MA is currently at 19.40. In addition and using the daily chart, there is a bullish flag formation with the flagpole being the rally from 13.76 to 16.45 and the flag is down to Friday's low at 15.67. A break above 16.45 would offer an upside objective of 19.13. Evidently, closure of the gap would negate the flag and change the outlook but at this time, the chart suggests that the stock will be heading up to the $19.13-19.40 level with a slight chance of getting up to 19.76. Probabilities favor the bulls. BGNE generated a negative reversal week, having made a new 18-week intraweek high but then closing red and in the lower half of the week's trading range, suggesting a high probability of going below last week's low at 187.24 than above last week's high at 207.27. The chart evaluation made after the earnings report suggested that the bulls would target the $210 level before stepping in to sell again. Though that is still a possibility, last week's high at $207 could be enough to fulfill that chart scenario but at the same time show some innate weakness remains. That possibility is now possible given the negative reversal week and the $20 trading range, which means high volatility, which in turn favors the bears. If the stock does go below last week's low it will trigger a small sell signal that would offer a downside objective of 168.82 and if the recent low at 161.08 (made before the earnings report came out) is broken, the target would be the $136 level. To the upside, there is intraweek resistance at 210.33. The 200-week MA is currently at 214.71 and the 200-day MA is currently at 216.91. All of those upside levels are possibilities of being reached but highly unlikely to all be broken. Probabilities are starting to favor the bears. CAT generated an inside week but did close on the high of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 196.97 will be seen this week. It is of note though, that the DOW (as well as the other indexes) has moved up 2.8% over the past 3 weeks while the stock has moved down .08% during the same period of time. This suggests that is the indexes start heading lower that the stock may outperform them to the downside. On a daily "and" weekly closing basis, there is clear and minor to perhaps decent resistance between 197.82 and 198.25, which the stock has been unable to break. If the bulls are able to break it this week, the 200-day MA, currently at 204.40, would be the target. If unable to break it any day this week, selling interest of consequence would be seen. To the downside and on a weekly closing basis, there is very little support. There is support at 185.39 and then at 173.38. The 200-week MA is currently at 165.50 and that would likely be the target if the bulls are unable to generate any further upside here. ENG made a new 22-week intraweek and weekly closing high and in the process, generated a new buy signal on both the daily and weekly closing chart and also technically generated a break of the 200-week MA, currently at 1.61, with Friday's close at 1.62. This breakout is supported fundamentally as the stock reported earnings on August 4th and they were much better than expected. The traders did not react to the report originally as the stock barely moved up the day after the report. Nonetheless, since then, it has all been up. The stock broke above the 200-day MA, currently at 1.36 on August 8th and that breakout has been confirmed every day thereafter. Now and with the 200-week MA having been broken, if further upside is seen, there is no resistance above until 1.78 is reached and that is a minor daily close resistance from a previous low daily close made on 52 weeks ago. As far as previous high daily close resistance, decent pivotal resistance is found at 2.17, which if broken, would suggest a rally to 2.90 would then be seen. Short-term pivotal daily close support is now found at 1.51. Probabilities favor the bulls. LI made a new 8-week intraweek and weekly closing low but the stock did rally to close in the upper half of the week's trading range, suggesting a slightly higher probability of going above last week's high at 34.14 than below last week's low at 30.24. The $30 level is psychological support and there is decent support down at the 28.50-28.70 level, suggesting that it is possible that a low for this downdraft has been found. It is also important to note that the stock closed on Friday above a pivotal weekly close support between 32.10 and 32.63 (closed at 32.48) and that means the bears do not yet have full control. On a daily closing basis, there is pivotal resistance at 34.32, which if broken would mean the downdraft is over. At this time though, the bears still have the edge. NEM generated an inside week but did close on the high of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 46.60 will be seen this week. This was the first green week in the last 6 weeks and the 2nd green week in the last 11 weeks. In addition, a buy signal was given on the daily chart, having closed above the 14-day daily closing high at 46.14 (closed at 46.55 on Friday), strongly suggesting that some form of recovery might have started. There is some minor intraweek resistance at 46.94 and then total open air until the 53.32 level is reached. By the same token, the runaway gap to the downside is between 49.88 and 50.84, meaning that the only thing with a degree of probability to the upside is a rally up to the $50 demilitarized zone. Pivotal intraweek support is now found at 45.21. If broken, the breakout will be negated. Probabilities favor the bulls. PLNHF generated an uneventful inside week (the 2nd week in a row) and showed nothing new has happened the last 3 weeks, having closed at 1.85. at 1.95, and Friday at 1.90. Nonetheless, the stock is showing a bull flag formation with the flag being the rally from 1.08 to 2.12 and the flag being the trading seen the last couple of weeks with a low at 1.70. A break above the top of the flag would offer a 2.84 objective. The company reports earnings tomorrow (Monday) at 5:00 pm. Pivotal support is found at 1.70. The 200-day MA is currently at 2.48. It is likely the earnings report will either generate a breakout or a fall back towards the recent lows. PRTS generated an inside week but did make a new 25-week weekly closing high and did close near the high of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 9.24 will be seen this week. The stock did get an upgrade of a rating company with a new price target of $14 versus previously the target was $12. The 200-day MA is currently at 9.21 and for the past 14 trading days, the bulls have attempted to break the line with highs made at 9.24, at 9.22, at 9.21, at 9.09, at 9.24 and Friday's high at 9.09. Such a consistent attack has a high probability of a breakout occurring. Short-term pivotal intraweek support is found at 8.39 and then at 7.92, which if broken would be a mid-term game changer. If the MA line is broken, there is no resistance until the $10 demilitarized zone, which is minor in nature when looking at the chart for the past 52 weeks but a bit stronger when looking at the weekly closing chart for the past 3 years. By the same token, any intraweek break above 10.30 would open the door for a rally to 12.68. QQQ generated a failure signal against the bears, having closed above an important previous low weekly close at 324.40 (closed at 330.39), which when broken to the downside, brought about the drop down to 269.28. The stock closed on the high of the week and further upside above last week's high at 330.59 is expected to be seen this week. The 100-week MA is currently at 334.90 and that has been a pivotal line in the past. In addition, the 200-day MA is currently at 342.51 and breaking of those lines on a closing basis, is highly unlikely to occur. The stock shows a gap at 319.03 that is a magnet to the downside and there is pivotal intraweek support at 315.42. In addition and on a daily closing basis, there is also pivotal daily close support at 314.38, meaning that if the stock breaks 315.42 and closes below 314.38, there will be mostly open air down to $280 (some minor supports are found at 298.79 and at 284.94). The MA's are not likely to be broken, meaning that the traders are facing a high risk/reward ratio as sellers and a very low reward but high risk as buyers. Probabilities favor the bears. SHOP generated a negative reversal week, having made a new 14-week high but then closing red. The stock closed in the middle of the weeks' trading range, suggesting equal chances of going above last week's high at 45.43 than below last week's low at 36.31. It does need to be mentioned that on Monday the stock generated a failure signal on the daily closing chart, having closed below the previous 9-week daily closing high at 40.25 that had been broken on the 3rd of August and confirmed the next day on both the daily and weekly closing chart. As such, the failure signal given was a negative sign of some consequence. Nonetheless, the failure signal was negated last Wednesday after a rating company raised their rating from neutral to overweight with a target of $46. In looking at the chart action and the rating's objective, it does suggest that the stock may not go up to the mention's objective of $50 with an outside chance of $60. As such, consideration should be given to taking profits this week, especially if the stock gets up (or slightly above) last week's high at 45.43. If the bulls are able to get above 47.30, the stock would then likely reach 48.80 or even the $50 demilitarized zone. Nonetheless and in looking at what the indexes are likely to do the next few weeks, a drop back down near the $30 level (or lower) could be seen by the end of September. VNET made a new 4-week weekly closing high and did close slightly in the upper half of the week's trading range, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 5.44 will be seen. Nonetheless, the stock continues to trade sideways without any clear view of a breakout or breakdown occurring anytime soon. Pivotal support is found at 4.45 and short-term pivotal resistance is found at 5.60, which if broken would give the bulls the edge for the next few weeks. Longer term pivotal resistance is at 7.94 but that seems out of reach for now. Probabilities continue to favor a sideways trading market but with the long-term bullish island still in place, it does make sense to hold on to the stock for what is to come after the seasonal down period (August and September) is over. ZLAB generated a negative reversal week, having made a new 6-month intraweek high at 50.83 but then closing red. The stock closed in the lower half of the week's trading range, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 41.71 will be seen this week. There were 2 reasons for the reversal with the first one being that the stock got up to the 200-day MA, currently at 50.09, which brought in selling interest as the stock has been trading below that line for the past 51 weeks and with no positive fundamental news, breaking above such an important line the first time around is very difficult. The second reason was that the stock reported earnings on Tuesday and they were lower than expected and selling interest occurred because of that as well. On a positive note though, the bears were unable to break any supports as the stock closed on Friday only $1.10 below the previous week's close and the 42.01 daily close support was not broken at any time during the week. This suggests that the bears did not gain anything from the two negatives mentioned above. On an intraweek basis, pivotal support is found at 37.20, which if broken would give the edge back to the bears. Minor but short-term pivotal resistance is found at 46.50 and then pivotal at 50.83, which if broken would likely carry the stock up to the $60 level. Probabilities continue to slightly favor the bulls.
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1) SNDL - Averaged long at 9.05 (2 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 3.00 2) PRTS - Averaged long at 7.29 (2 mentions). Stop loss now at 7.65. Stock closed on Friday at 8.09. 3) SRUTF - Averaged long at .0738 (3 mentions). No stop loss at moment. Stock closed on Friday at .0115. 4) BTZI - Averaged long at .0935 (4 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at .005. 5) ZLAB - Averaged long at 71.955 (6 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 44.17. 6) AU - Averaged long at 26.184 (4 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 15.93. 7) NEM - Averaged long at 61.492 (5 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 46.55. 8) ENG - Averaged long at 3.378 (5 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 1.62. 9) VNET - Averaged long at 5.32 (2 mentions). No stop loss now at 4.98. Stock closed on Friday at 5.09. 10) AAPL - Shorted at 166.27. Averaged short at 158.325 (2 mentions). Stock closed on Friday at 172.10. 11) CAT - Shorted at 229.67. Stop loss now at 193.35. Stock closed on Friday at 178.62. 12) LI - Averaged long at 36.38 (2 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 32.48. 13) SHOP - Averaged long at 30.17 (2 mentions). Stop loss now at 36.21. Stock closed on Friday at 40.76. 14) QQQ - Shorted at 332.82. No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 321.75. 15) BGNE - Shorted at 183.20. No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 194.47. 16) IR - Shorted at 50.48. Covered shorts at 52.24. Loss on the trade of $176 per 100 shares. 17) DD - Shorted at 61.10 and at 62.36. Covered short at 62.68. Loss on the trade of $190 per 100 shares. 18) CAT - Shorted at 194.71. Covered shorts at 195.68. Loss on the trade of $97 per 100 shares.
Previous Newsletters
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The opinions and commentaries by Mr. De Vito are not a recommendation to buy or sell, but rather
a charting guideline, based on his own knowledge and experience, regarding the stocks he is following or
that are brought to him by others. Mr. De Vito does not presently offer a track record of his trading experiences.
No inference of success and/or failure should be assumed. The
information enclosed above, regarding his background, length of trading, and experience, is correct
but is not meant to suggest, state, or infer any future success in trading, based on his opinions. The information herewith included should only be used by investors who are aware of the risk inherent in securities trading. Mr. De Vito accepts no liability whatsoever for any loss arising from any use of the information and/or comments he supplies. |
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