Issue #779
August 28, 2022 | Newsletter
The newsletter with chart analysis for stocks and stock indexes |
Stock Indexes Analysis/Evaluation
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| Indexes Give Clear Signals that they are Heading Lower!
DOW Friday closing price - 32283
The stock market (all indexes) generated a strong move down this past week after the Fed announced that Inflation was their main concern, even at the expense of some economic pain to the economy. With the exception of the RUT, which fell only 3% in value, the other indexes all fell between 4.7% and 4.9% in value, meaning it was a total market fall and not just a particular industry or index fall.
"All" the intraweek supports built over the past 4 weeks were broken and the indexes closed on the lows of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's lows (DOW at 32278, SPX at 4147, and NASDAQ at 12603) will be seen this week. This was both a chart and fundamental negative that strongly suggests that further downside will be seen this week.
With the exception of the DOW, which has not been an indicative index for years, the other indexes gapped down last Monday and are likely to gap down again this Monday. This scenario would be seen as a breakaway/runaway gap formation that would be supported fundamentally, given the Fed announcement. As such, a retest of the July lows is now a highly likely scenario and new lows for the year a definite possibility.
There are no supports of any consequence nearby in any of the indexes. In the DOW the next level of intraweek support of consequence is at 30635 (1600 points below Friday's close). In the SPX the same kind of support as with the DOW is at 3810 (250 points below Friday's close, and in the NASDAQ the same kind of support is at 11492 (1100 points below Friday's close). Below those levels, the July lows are found (DOW at 29653, SPX at 3636, NAZ at 11037. It is important to note that the 200-week MA's, which have not been broken for 12 years, are found at the same levels as the July lows in the DOW (29637) and the NAZ (at 11056). In the SPX, the MA line is at 3561. The SPX is definitely the index to watch regarding the MA line as it is the dependable index for all chart-related levels.
Evidently, a confirmed break of the 200-week MA's across the board would confirm that the stock market is in effect, in a bear trend that would last at least 1-2 years. As such and with the Fed announcement on Friday, a test of the support levels mentioned above and of the MA's themselves is in the front-view mirror.
Adding to the negatives that began anew this past week, all indexes now find themselves below July's monthly closes, meaning that the seasonal tendency for August and September to be down months seems to be holding up this year. The end of the month is on Wednesday and there seems to be little that could happen in the first 3 days of this coming week that would allow the bulls to prevent a red monthly close. What is worse is that September is not only also a negative seasonal tendency month but is normally known to be worse than August (as a seasonal down month) and that certainly opens the door for the indexes to break July's lows in September.
Having said all of that, the reality is that the Fed has stated clearly that they are Data Dependent, meaning that if anything can give the bulls some ammunition to prevent the worst from occurring it is economic data that is supportive. On Thursday (Sep 1), the ISM Index report comes out and on Friday, the Jobs report comes out. On Tuesday Sep 13th, the CPI number comes out and on Wednesday Sep 21st, the FOMC rate decision comes out. It is unlikely that the ISM Index or Jobs report will be much better than anticipated, meaning it will not likely give the bulls any ammunition they can use. Nonetheless, the CPI report on September 13th could/should be pivotal, as well as the FOMC rate decision on September 21st.
What does this all likely mean? It likely means that for the next 2+ weeks, the bears are going to be in control and that the intraweek support levels mentioned above will be the targets. After the CPI report comes out, and depending on how bad or better it is, the traders will make some new decisions and definitely after the FOMC rate decision is announced, the traders will decide if this market will continue in a bear way for another 6-12 months or whether a good recovery rally is to occur.
The charts and the present fundamentals seem to be working in harmony right now, meaning that for the next 2 weeks it is all likely to be down. After that, questions will start to come up again. Probabilities strongly favor the bears this week.
OIL generated a new 3-week intraweek high and a new 4-week weekly closing high but the bulls were unable to make any kind of a bullish statement, having closed on Friday just below a minor but short-term indicative weekly close resistance at 93.01 (closed at 92.97). Oil did close in the upper half of the week's trading range, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 95.73 will be seen this week. The bulls did have "some" success this past week, having closed above the most recent daily closing high at 94.34 and above a previous low daily close at 94.70 with a close on Wednesday 94.89, thus giving a new buy signal, as well as a new failure-against-the-bears signal. Unfortunately for the bulls, they were unable to confirm that mini breakout, having closed on Thursday at 92.52 and on Friday at 92.97. Simply stated, the chart is not clear as to what is to happen this week with both sides having some ammunition. Oil is likely to start out the week to the upside and if the bulls are able to get above last week's intraweek high at 95.73 and generate a daily close above 94.89, the bulls will have the edge. By the same token, any red daily close at the beginning of the week will suggest that a move down to at least the 88.54 level will be seen before any new attempt at the highs are made. One other thing to look at this week is the close on Wednesday (monthly close). A close below 92.07 on Wednesday (midpoint of the months trading range) will suggest further downside below August low at 85.73 will be seen in September. It is important to note that September is also usually a seasonal trough period for Oil, much like with the index market. With the fundamentals being so much up in the air at this time, it is difficult to give a probability rating for Oil for this week but given that Oil "has been" in a midterm downtrend, that would tend to favor the bears.
DOLLAR made another new 17-year high weekly close and closed on the high of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 108.87 will be seen this week. This move does confirm the weekly close resistance breakout that occurred last week. Nonetheless, 109.29 intraweek high that was made 7 weeks ago was not broken, leaving the door open for some doubt to enter the minds of the traders. It also needs to be mentioned that 19-years ago, there was a major weekly closing low in the Dollar at 109.26 that would also need to be broken (generate a failure signal against the bears) in order to open the door for a retest of the all-time intraweek high at 121.05. By the same token, the statement by the Fed that fighting inflation is the #1 priority and that means "raising interest rates as high as needed" does give the bulls the fundamental ammunition to do "what is needed" for the Dollar to continue higher. As such, the probabilities favor the bulls this week. The low "daily close" last week was 108.47 and that is now pivotal daily close support, meaning that a break of that support would likely be indicative and a possible game changer.
BITCOIN generated a failure signal last Sunday on the weekly closing chart, having closed below the mini weekly close breakout at 21485 (closed at 21114). The failure signal given last week, is likely to be confirmed tomorrow night (Sunday) given that it is presently trading at 20020. Bitcoin bulls have been mostly failing, even when they have had a temporary edge (as they had the past 2 months) and now the 21-month low weekly close at 18978 is at risk of being broken this week (or next). Such a break would not only give a sell signal but a major failure signal as well given that the prior (and first of consequence) high weekly close given in 2017 at 19187 would be broken as well. If all of that occurs, the previous all-time high monthly close at 13800 would become the target. It needs to be noted that the monthly close for August is on Wednesday and the low monthly close for the past 23 months has been 19938. If Bitcoin closes below that level on Wednesday (looking likely), it will be a negative statement that would suggest all of the above will occur on Friday. Daily close resistance is found at 21563 and if the bulls can find a way to generate such a close this week, this chart evaluation will change. Probabilities favor the bears.
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Stock Analysis/Evaluation
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CHART Outlooks
I have no new mentions this week but I am going to give an idea that can be followed if it happens. If a gap down on Monday occurs in the following stocks (AAPL, AMZN, IR and/or QQQ), any rally (intraday or otherwise) near to the gap, can be shorted using the gap as a stop loss point. In AAPL, the stop loss would be at 163.56, in AMZN, the stop loss would be at 130.50, in IR the stop loss would be at 48.26 and in QQQ, the stop loss would be at 315.76. A gap down in these stocks would create a breakaway/runaway gap formation that should not be even attempted to be closed until the downside targets are reached. As such, this type of trade offers very limited and small risk with decent profit potential. By the same token, the probability rating on this kind of a trade is no better than 50-50.
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Updates
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| Updates on Held Stocks |
Closed Trades, Open Positions and Stop Loss Changes |
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AAPL confirmed the successful retest of the weekly close resistance at 174.31 with a 2nd red close in a row below the recent high weekly close at 172.10. The stock closed on the low of the week and further downside below last week's low at 163.56 is expected to be seen this week. On an intraweek basis, there is no support until 154.70 is reached. Further intraweek support is found at 152.00 and 150.10. Below 150.10, there is no intraweek support until 138.27. Given that the stock is one of the strongest fundamentally supported stocks in the market, the only level with a decent probability number is 154.70. The other levels are possibilities but not necessarily probabilities. By the same token and "not" looking at the fundamental picture of the company, the 138.27 level would likely be the target. Friday's high at 171.05 is now pivotal resistance. The 200-day MA, currently at 160.87 is also pivotal given that it is an important and indicative MA. Nonetheless and using the daily chart (not the weekly), a confirmed close below that MA line would strong suggest the $150 level would be reached. Probabilities favor the bears. AU had a disappointing week, having closed below the recent failure-against-the-bears breakout level at 14.74 (closed at 14.42). The failure signal of the failure signal given a few weeks ago does put the stock in a questionable position for a bigger recovery. By the same token, it is not a chart breaker given that the low weekly close seen 6 weeks ago at 13.74 was not broken and does require/need a retest of it and this move down could still be that retest. The stock did close on the low of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 14.32 will be seen this week. The same situation is happening to the Gold chart but it is not expected that Gold will break its support at $1721, suggesting the AU will not break its intraweek support at 13.47. A green weekly close is expected to be seen in Gold next Friday and that means that the same thing is likely to happen here. Any daily close above 15.1 would tilt the scales to the bulls. BGNE generated a green weekly close and did close "slightly" in the upper half of the week's trading range, suggesting a slightly higher chance of going above last week's high at 189.99 than going below last week's low at 170.51. The reason the stock did not mimic what happened in the stock market is because it is a Chinese stock and Chinese stocks for the most part rallied due to China announcing a $1 billion stimulus package last week. The stock did make a new 5-month high weekly close 5 weeks ago at 194.47 and that high weekly close requires/needs a successful retest of it before the bears come back in aggressively. There is weekly close resistance at 188.74 that is likely to be the target for this coming Friday's close. Using the daily closing chart, resistance is found at 188.53 and if that level is reached at the beginning of the week and the stock falters thereafter, the close at that level will not occur on Friday. Any red weekly close at this time would be a decent negative. Probabilities do favor the bulls at the beginning of the week but the probabilities are 50-50 for the end of the week. Any daily close below 172.99 would give the bears the edge back. CAT generated a key negative reversal week, having made a new 10-week high and then closing red and below the previous week's close. The stock closed on the low of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 191.55 will be seen this week. The red weekly close confirmed that the previous week's red weekly close was a successful retest of the 10-week high weekly close at 198.25, having generated a second red week in a row. This was even more indicative given than on Thursday, the stock generated a breakout of the same level on the daily closing chart, followed on Friday with negation of that breakout. There is some minor intraweek support at 186.98 and then nothing until 179.67. Below that level, there is decent intraweek support at 167.08 that is further strengthened by the 200-week MA, currently at 167.20. If that support is broken, it is open air to the $150 level. There is an open gap between 191.52 and 191.55. If the stock gaps down on Monday (likely), that gap could become an island formation on the daily chart and that would give the bulls added ammunition. Pivotal resistance is at last week's high at 200.37. Probabilities favor the bears. ENG generated a new 9-month weekly closing high but it was only by $.01 cents above the high close made 3 weeks ago and above the 200-wee MA, currently at 1.62. In addition, the stock closed in the middle of the week's trading range, suggesting equal chances of going above last week's high at 1.85 than below last week's low at 1.45. Simply stated, it was a positive but not a convincing one. Nonetheless and using the daily chart, the stock has remained above the 200-day MA for the past 3 weeks and did generate a spike low retest of that line 2 weeks ago. That retest will be officially successful if the stock goes above Friday's high at 1.65 on Monday. If that occurs, the bulls will have the edge for further upside. Pivotal midterm support is now at 1.36 and pivotal midterm resistance is at 2.24. Probabilities slightly favor the bulls. LI generated a positive reversal week, having made a new 11-week low but then closing green and on the upper half of the week's trading range, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 32.15 will be seen this week. The stock closed on the low of the day on Friday, suggesting the first course of business for the week will be to the downside and below Friday's low at 30.21. There is intraday support at 29.70 that should hold up. A move down on Friday would likely become the needed/required retest of the recent low at 28.37. If that is the case, a short-covering/new buying event should occur. Possible upside target could be as high as the 36.65/37.65 level (34.44 on a weekly closing basis). This is a Chinese stock and those are presently being supported and rallying due to the $1 billion stimulus program that China announced last week. Probabilities favor the bulls. IR generated a second red weekly close and has now dropped 10.9% in value over the past 2 weeks. The stock closed on the low of the week and further downside below last week/s low at 48.26 is expected to be seen. The stock did generate a new sell signal on the daily closing chart, having made a new 4-week intraweek low and closing below 2 previous low daily closes. In addition, the stock broke back below the 200-day MA, currently at 50.86, a week ago and did test the break successfully on Wednesday, followed with the sell signal on Friday. There is some minor intraweek support at 48.01 but below that level there is open air until 44.85 is reached. Below that level there is again open air to 41.60. Weekly chart suggests there is a 60% probability of 41.60 being the downside objective for the next 2 weeks. Any rally above Wednesday's high at 51.10 would be a positive. As such, stop loss has been lowered to 51.35. Probabilities favor the bears. NEM generated another new 29-month intraweek and weekly closing low and closed near the low of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 42.88 will be seen this week. The traders continue to target the previous and important weekly closing high at 40.72 (which was the high weekly close between 2016 and 2019) and the low weekly close seen March 2020 at 39.50. Both of these levels are highly unlikely to be broken. Due to the negative earnings report that came out 5 weeks ago, the stock has been underperforming Gold, which is the opposite of what happened between January 2021 and March 2022 when the stock was "outperforming Gold". Nonetheless, it is likely that Gold will have a turnaround week this week, suggesting the stock might do the same. Short-term pivotal resistance is found at 45.40. Intraweek support is likely to be found between 42.07 and 42.34. Probabilities favor the bears this week but there is a fair chance that a green weekly close will occur on Friday. PLNHF generated a positive reversal week, having made a new 5-week low but then closing green and in the upper half of the week's trading range, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 1.77 will be seen. If that occurs, last week's low at 1.41 will be seen as a successful retest of the 2-year low at 1.08 and that would likely bring in additional short-covering as well as new buying interest. The stock seems to have built a rounded bottom with pivotal resistance at 2.12, which if broken would suggest the downtrend is over. On a weekly closing basis, the 2.04 level is decent and pivotal resistance. Intraweek support is now found between 1.50 and 1.54. Probabilities favor the bulls this week. QQQ generated a 2nd red close week in a row and a close on the low of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 307.35 will be seen this week. Intraweek support is found at 297.45 and then nothing until 280.21. The fundamental picture at this time is negative and with very little established support below, probabilities do favor the stock heading down to the $280 level. Pivotal resistance is now found at 321.51 but there is now also minor to decent intraweek resistance at 314.66 that could be seen but not likely broken. Probabilities favor the bears. SHOP has now generated 3 red close weeks in a row and the stock did close in the lower half of the week's trading range on Friday, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 31.80 will be seen this week. The stock has strong and established intraweek support at the $30 demilitarized zone that should not be broken given that the stock did report better than expected earnings over a month ago. By the same token, the support in that area is copious with multiple lows and those are always a magnet for a break to occur. Below that $30 demilitarized level of support, there is further support down at 28.21 that should not be broken at this time. The chart does suggest that at some point this year (before December) that a rally back up to the $40 will be seen. As such, the stock could have a trading range between $28 and $40 for the rest of the year. VNET generated a positive reversal week, having made a new 3-week low but then closing green and in the upper half of the week's trading range, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 5.50 will be seen this week. Nonetheless, the stock continues to trade sideways without any clear view of a breakout or breakdown occurring anytime soon, given that for the past 7 weeks, the stock has traded between 4.47 and 5.60 without giving any clues as to whether a breakout or breakdown is to occur. The company did announce last week that it will report earnings on Tuesday and that could/should give the traders some ammunition for some movement either way. The island formation that was built in March continues to give support to the bulls, as well as the fact that small cap stocks are getting more support at this time than the rest of the market (RUT only dropped 3% this past week with the other indexes dropping 5%). As such, there is a good possibility that a resolution to the sideways trend will occur this week. Probabilities do favor the bulls. ZLAB generated a new 25-week weekly closing high and closed in the upper half of the week's trading range, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 48.69 will be seen this week. On an intraweek basis though, there is still resistance at 50.89 that needs to be broken to give the bulls enough ammunition to take the stock up to the $60 level, which is a clear chart objective as well as a very pivotal but decent resistance level that has important meaning for the long term outlook. The 200-day MA is currently at 47.33 and this was the second time in the last few weeks that line has been seen. Normally, it takes 3 attempts to break a MA line but given that the fundamental picture for Chinese stocks changed for the plus this week, it is possible that the line will be broken now. If that happens and the stock gets above 50.89, the breakout above the line will be confirmed and the attempt to reach the $60 level will be in effect. Short-term pivotal support is now found at 41.04. Probabilities favor the bulls.
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1) SNDL - Averaged long at 9.05 (2 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 2.95 2) PRTS - Liquidated at 7.77. Averaged long at 7.29. Profit on the trade of $96 per 100 shares (2 mentions. 3) SRUTF - Averaged long at .0738 (3 mentions). No stop loss at moment. Stock closed on Friday at .0145. 4) BTZI - Averaged long at .0935 (4 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at .0235. 5) ZLAB - Averaged long at 71.955 (6 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 46.58. 6) AU - Averaged long at 26.184 (4 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 14.42. 7) NEM - Averaged long at 61.492 (5 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 43.22. 8) ENG - Averaged long at 3.378 (5 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 1.63. 9) VNET - Averaged long at 5.32 (2 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 5.17. 10) AAPL - Averaged short at 163.686 (3 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 163.62. 11) CAT - Averaged short at 213.045 (2 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 191.92. 12) LI - Puchased at 28.78. Averaged long at 33.846 (3 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 30.30. 13) SHOP - Averaged long at 30.17 (2 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 32.42. 14) QQQ - Shorted at 332.82. No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 307.44. 15) BGNE - Shorted at 183.20. No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 181.09. 16) IR - Shorted at 50.98. Averaged short at 51.715 (2 mentions). 52.45. Stop loss now at 51.35. Stock closed on Friday at 48.29. 17) BABA - Purchased at 89.86. Stop loss at 86.61. Stock closed on Friday at 98.00.
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The opinions and commentaries by Mr. De Vito are not a recommendation to buy or sell, but rather
a charting guideline, based on his own knowledge and experience, regarding the stocks he is following or
that are brought to him by others. Mr. De Vito does not presently offer a track record of his trading experiences.
No inference of success and/or failure should be assumed. The
information enclosed above, regarding his background, length of trading, and experience, is correct
but is not meant to suggest, state, or infer any future success in trading, based on his opinions. The information herewith included should only be used by investors who are aware of the risk inherent in securities trading. Mr. De Vito accepts no liability whatsoever for any loss arising from any use of the information and/or comments he supplies. |
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