Issue #785
October 9, 2022 | Newsletter
The newsletter with chart analysis for stocks and stock indexes |
Stock Indexes Analysis/Evaluation
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| Traders to key on Inflation (CPI) report on Tuesday!
DOW Friday closing price - 29296
The bulls were able to generate a green weekly close across the board. Nonetheless, the week turned out to be mostly a disappointment given that the indexes rallied as much as 6% above the previous week's close but then all closed near the lows of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's lows will be seen this week (DOW below 28855, SPX below 3604, NAZ below 10985, and RUT below 1671).
The economic reports came out mostly as anticipated, meaning that it was not a change of fundamentals that created the rally at the beginning of the week but simply a chart induced rally due to reaching the 200-week MA's the previous week. That line represents the long-term uptrend and it requires a clear picture of a recession to occur in order to break, meaning there was a lot of bargain basement buying and short-covering that was seen. Nonetheless, when the important reports for the week/month (ISM Index and Jobs) came out as expected, it did not relieve the fears of a recession and the gains were given back.
This week, the CPI (inflation) report comes out Tuesday morning and it is definitely a pivotal report that will either confirm or perhaps ease the fears of a recession occurring. The CPI number is expected to be slightly higher than the previous month (.2% versus last month .1%) but the important number is Core CPI and that is expected to come in lower (.4% versus last month at .6%). If the Core CPI number does come in lower, especially if lower than the anticipated .4%, it will boost the idea that the worst of inflation is over and that should give the bulls new ammunition to generate a rally. Nonetheless, if the number comes in higher than anticipated, it will do the opposite and give the bears ammunition for lower numbers.
Nonetheless, the CPI report is not due out until Tuesday and that means that on Monday, the indexes should see further weakness and a break of the September lows. This was a high probability occurrence, given that the previous Friday (end of the week and the month) the indexes closed on the lows and further downside below those levels is expected to be seen this month, and likely on Monday (DOW at 28715, SPX at 3585, NAZ at 10971, RUT at 1650).
Having said that, this week will be all about the inflation report and the perception of its effects. Nonetheless, the report is not going to be the only thing affecting the perception given that OPEC cut production of oil by 2 million barrels this past week and Oil has rallied 18% from its recent low and looking to go higher. This means that last month's inflation will not reflect that change (which does mean higher inflation) and that also means that even if the inflation report comes in lower, the traders may not react as positively to it and would normally be expected.
As far as chart support and resistance levels are concerned, last week's highs are now going to be short-term pivotal resistance (DOW at 30454, SPX at 3806 and NASDAQ at 11669). To the downside and below the previous week's lows, the DOW remains the key index as there is a weekly gap at 28495 that is a magnet for closure. Below that level, there is a very minor intraweek support at 28169 and then nothing until 26537. In the SPX there is no intraweek support until 3233. In the NASDAQ there is minor intraweek support at 10677 and at 10313.
Probabilities strongly favor weakness being seen on Monday but then it will all depend on the inflation report on Tuesday and how the future of inflation for the rest of the year is perceived. The October seasonal tendency remains unanswered but by the end of this coming week, a clear clue is likely to be seen.
OIL received positive news this past week in the form of OPEC agreeing to a 2 million barrels of oil production cut. Oil has rallied 18.3% over the past 9 trading days and in the process, generated a negation of the failure signal given 4 weeks ago when it closed below the previous multi-year high weekly close at 83.74 (closed on Friday at 93.20) that was made 51 weeks ago. In addition, Oil technically generated a short-term buy signal, having closed above a recent high weekly close at 93.06 as well as above another high weekly close at 93.10 that occurred on the way up to the $130 level. The buy signal does have to be confirmed next Friday with another green weekly close as the buy signal was only by $.16 cents and that is not a clear statement. Like with the index market, the inflation report that comes out on Tuesday and that is likely to be pivotal to the overall market, is also likely to be the deciding factor on what Oil does this week and for the entire month of October. There is pivotal intraweek resistance at 97.66, which if broken would open the door for a rally up to the next established resistance level at 114.05 and perhaps even to 116.6 area. To the downside, there is no intraweek support until 87.01 and a bit stronger at 85.73. Important intraweek support is now found at 81.20. With the production cuts announced, the bulls now have the edge but any further weakness in the index market after Tuesday's CPI report, would likely be negative to Oil. As it is, it is likely necessary for the index market to stage a clear short-term uptrend in order for Oil to get above 97.66. As such, the chart suggests that an $87-$97 trading range may be the outlook for the next month and a half (until the next Fed rate announcement in mid-November.
DOLLAR generated a positive reversal week, having made a new 2-week intraweek low but then turning around to close green and on the high of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 112.88 will be seen this week. On an intraweek basis, the previous week's high at 114.78 is pivotal resistance, which if broken would suggest it will continue higher to the $120 level. Like with everything else, Tuesday's inflation report is likely to be a big catalyst. If inflation continue to rise, the Fed will be forced to continue raising interest rates (higher and for longer than is presently anticipated), which in turn would support the Dollar heading higher. The opposite is also true. In inflation is starting to move lower, the Dollar will lose strength and would suggest the 114.78 high would be a top to the present uptrend. Any daily close below 110.07 would generate a sell signal. On the opposite side, any daily close above 114.10 would generate a new buy signal. It is likely that one or the other will happen this week, after the CPI report on Tuesday.
BITCOIN for the 2nd week in a row, Bitcoin did "very little" this past week, meaning nothing was cleared up. Nonetheless and something like with Gold (but to a much smaller degree), Bitcoin did generate some minor positive on the daily chart and slightly give a bit of a short-term edge to the bulls. Everything though, remains the same as the previous week. A daily close below 18476 will give the bears further ammunition and total control and a daily close above 20308 will give the bulls "some" ammunition for further recovery. At this time (Sunday at 1:00 pm), Bitcoin is trading at 19505.
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Stock Analysis/Evaluation
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CHART Outlooks
Due to the fact that nothing was resolved last week as the economic reports came out as expected, the traders will key on the inflation report that comes out on Tuesday for direection. As such, the same thing applies this week as last week. There are no new mentions this week in the newsletter. Nonethelessl, after Tuesday morning after the report comes out, I will have mentions available on the message board.
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Updates
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| Updates on Held Stocks |
Closed Trades, Open Positions and Stop Loss Changes |
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On a weekly closing basis, very little happened to "most" of the held stocks and given that there is a pivotal report this week on Tuesday, the update on held stocks given this week will show very few changes, other than to the very few held stocks that did do something. AAPL generated an inside week and a green close but closed near the low of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 137.69 will be seen this week. The stock did get some negative fundamental news the previous week, given that the company announced they were cutting back production of the new I-Phone due to low amount of sales. The news and break of support suggests the stock will head down to at least the next intraweek support level at 132.61. If that level gets broken, the bears will target the July lows at 129.07 and if broken, that would open the door for a possible drop all the way down to the 200-week MA, currently at 107.10. Pivotal resistance is now found at last week's high at 147.54. AU generated another green week but did close near the low of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 14.01 will be seen this week. If that happens, it could turn out to be the necessary/required retest of the recent low at 11.94. There is some intraweek support at 13.74 that if held, would be a decent positive to the market. If the stock does go below last week's low, last week's high at 15.35 will become short-term pivotal resistance. The stock did generate, on the weekly closing chart, a failure signal against the bears, having closed above the 14.17 level on Friday. If confirmed this week with another close above that level on Friday, it would likely mean that a bottom to this downtrend has been found. Any daily close below 12.16 would give the bears new ammunition. BABA did the same thing as AU and has the same scenario in place. Last week's low was 78.05. There is intraweek support at 76.28, which if broken would be negative. Daily close support is at 80.99/81.06 that if it holds up would be a positive. Last week's high at 85.03 is a short-term pivotal resistance area now. A daily close below 76.76 would give the bears new and strong ammunition for further downside. CAT outperformed other held stocks given that JP Morgan upgraded their upside target from $205 to $220. As such, not only did the stock generate a green weekly close but a close in the upper half of the week's trading range, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 180.98 will be seen this week. The indexes, and therefore likely the stock as well, are expected to see weakness on Monday and if that does happen, consideration can be given to covering the shorts before the CPI report comes out on Tuesday. By the same token, if the CPI report disappoints, the indexes will head lower and so will the stock. Intraweek support is now found at 167.08, which could be the target for Monday or more likely for the week, if and when the CPI report disappoints. As such, the $167 level is now the target for the downside even with negative action in the index market. ENG did nothing on a weekly closing basis but given that it rallied at the beginning of the week, there is a new intraweek pivot point resistance at 1.45. Otherwise, everything remains the same. Key levels to watch on the daily closing chart are 1.16 and 1.49. A break of the former would give back control to the bears while a break of the latter would do the opposite. Probabilities are 50-50, likely based on what the index market does this week. LI was the stock that outperformed every other stock this week but the outperformance was to the downside. The stock made a new 5-month intraweek low but a new 17-month weekly closing low and closed on the low of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 19.33 will be seen this week. There was no new news on the stock but the auto industry did see a bit more selling this past week than other industries, and in particular the more expensive electric car industry. All weekly close supports except one have been broken. The remaining weekly close support is at 18.26. There is intraweek support at 18.83 that the bulls are hoping will hold up. There is a clear history in this stock that when a bottom is found that a strong rally occurs immediately thereafter. In the last 3 spike lows, the least rally and within 1 week was 177%, and the other 2 rallies were 199% and 277%, all within 7-8 weeks. NEM has the same chart as AU with the exception that no failure signal against the bears has been given. Nonetheless, a drop below last week's low at 42.37 is likely to be seen. Intraweek support is at 41.61 and pivotal resistance is at 45.23. Any daily close below 39.50 would be a strong additional negative to the chart. PLNHF rallied 64% above the previous week's close but there was no news to support the rally. The stock fell back to close in the lower half of the week's trading range and given that the rally was impressive, it is likely that neither last week's high nor low will be broken this week (likely will be an inside week. There is now a double bottom established at 1.03/1.08 that should ultimately mean that further upside is to come. Some of last week's rally might have occurred given the recent news of Biden giving pardons to Marijuana users. It does suggest, that Cannabis use might be closer to legal acceptance. QQQ same identical thing as what is stated about the NASDAQ index above. It is likely the stock will go below the previous week's low at 267.10. Some intraweek support is found at 260.17. Tuesday's CPI number will decide the direction for October. SHOP is likely to break the previous week's low at 26,38 and if it does, there is no support until 24.22 (minor) and then down to the $20 level. This chart is looking very negative. Last week's high at 31.85 is now pivotal resistance. VNET generated a 3rd red week in a row and did close in the lower half of the week's trading range, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 5.06 will be seen this week. There is established support at 4.91 but if broken and the gap down at 4.80 is reached, the bulls will lose any edge they may have obtained off of the good news that came out 4 weeks ago. Pivotal resistance is now found at 5.95 ZLAB continued lower and there is no established support until the 25.78 level is reached. Nonetheless, there has been no negative news on the company and with it trading presently generated at 33.03, it is highly unlikely that a drop down to that level will occur. Like with everything else, Tuesday's CPI report is likely to generate movement in one direction or the other. Nonetheless, it was announced this weekend that China is beginning to take steps to stimulate its economy, meaning that Chinese stocks could outperform U.S. stocks to the upside or underperform to the downside. Last week's high at 37.75 is now the new short-term pivotal resistance.
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1) SNDL - Averaged long at 9.05 (2 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 2.18 2) SRUTF - Averaged long at .0738 (3 mentions). No stop loss at moment. Stock closed on Friday at .0146. 3) BTZI - Averaged long at .0935 (4 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at .0127. 4) ZLAB - Averaged long at 71.955 (6 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 33.03. 5) AU - Averaged long at 26.184 (4 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 14.44. 6) BABA - Purchased at 89.86. Stop loss at 86.61. Stock closed on Friday at 81.24. 7) NEM - Averaged long at 61.492 (5 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 42.60. 8) ENG - Averaged long at 3.378 (5 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 1.26. 9) VNET - Averaged long at 5.32 (2 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 5.13. 10) AAPL - Averaged short at 147.90 (2 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 140.09. 11) CAT - Shorted at 179.93. Averaged short at 204.80 (2 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 177.55. 12) LI - Averaged long at 31.942 (4 mentions. No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 19.57. 13) SHOP - Shorted at 31.40. Stop loss at 31.95. Stock closed on Friday at 27.21. 14) QQQ - Shorted at 282.51. Stop loss at 284.35. Stock closed on Friday at 269.10. 15) VET - Liquidated at 23.66. Purchased at 23.97. Loss on the trade of $31 per 100 shares.
Previous Newsletters
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The opinions and commentaries by Mr. De Vito are not a recommendation to buy or sell, but rather
a charting guideline, based on his own knowledge and experience, regarding the stocks he is following or
that are brought to him by others. Mr. De Vito does not presently offer a track record of his trading experiences.
No inference of success and/or failure should be assumed. The
information enclosed above, regarding his background, length of trading, and experience, is correct
but is not meant to suggest, state, or infer any future success in trading, based on his opinions. The information herewith included should only be used by investors who are aware of the risk inherent in securities trading. Mr. De Vito accepts no liability whatsoever for any loss arising from any use of the information and/or comments he supplies. |
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