Issue #783
September 25, 2022
The Oasis

Newsletter


The newsletter with chart analysis for stocks and stock indexes

Stock Indexes Analysis/Evaluation


Indexes facing a pivotal week of consequence for the midterm and perhaps even the long-term.

DOW Friday closing price - 29590
SPX Friday closing price - 3693
NASDAQ Friday closing price - 11311
RUT Friday closing price - 1679

The indexes continued their recent downtrend having given up an addition 4-6% in value this past week. The Fed rate decision came out as expected but the traders reacted to it in a negative way. At the end of the week, the U.K. announcement of a $161 billion pound stimulus program that fueled further selling as the fears of worldwide inflation increasing even more infused the traders with even more fear. Bottom line is that the SPX has now fallen 22.6% from its all-time high, the NASDAQ has fallen 31.8% and the RUT has fallen 31.2% (all based on weekly closes), meaning that we are in a clearly defined bear market.

Nonetheless and in a potential short-to-midterm positive way, the DOW is the only index that closed below the July weekly close (low for the year, meaning that the traders are not yet fully convinced that the indexes will continue lower the rest of the year. This being especially true given that there is no fundamental news due out this coming week that can give the bears additional ammunition for further downside. In addition, this coming Friday is the end of September and October has generally been considered seasonally to be the 3rd best month of the year for a rally, having shown a 68.9% history occurrence of rallies during the month (only December and April having a better percentage). Having said that, there have been several occurrences of crashes in the month of October (1907, 1929, and 1987), meaning that it is not necessarily clear or certain that the stock market will see a rally "this October".

Evidently this coming week is likely to define whether October will be a negative or positive month, given that the SPX, NASDAQ and RUT all closed just a few points above the July weekly closes (SPX at 3674, NAZ at 31261, and RUT at 1665). If next Friday a red weekly close occurs below those levels, and especially if it occurs below the 200-week MA in the SPX and NAZ (currently at 3585 and at 31158, respectively), it will suggest that no recovery of consequence will occur in October and that a crash could be seen.

Unfortunately, waiting for Friday is going to be a necessity in order to make any defined decisions. This is especially true given that the indexes all closed near the lows of the week and on an intraweek basis, further downside below last week's lows is expected to be seen. As such, and on an intraweek basis, the probabilities do favor those intraweek lows being broken. In the SPX that is only 12 points below last week's low, in the NASDAQ that is only 133 points below last week's low and in the RUT that is only 18 points below last week's low. What this all means is that the bulls need to generate a positive reversal "week" and that will not be known until the following Friday.

One big negative for the bulls is that below the July intraweek lows, there is no established support anywhere nearby, meaning that the bears can be aggressive in pushing the indexes lower. Such action will put the bulls in an impossible situation from which to rally from given that there is no level where computer and algorithm buying can be expected to be seen. With the 200-week MA's not being in play on an intraweek basis, it is going to be very difficult to stop the bears from being aggressive, especially since the fundamental picture is strongly negative and no news is likely to come out this week that would change that. By the same token, the action (closes) on Friday have left the door open slightly for the bulls to do something to prevent the worst from happening;

Having said all of that above, the probabilities do favor the bulls given the oversold condition and the fact that pivotal weekly close supports were not broken on Friday. Nonetheless, this week is likely to define what happens in October and half of November and the traders will have that in mind, meaning that the probabilities are not all that dependable this week.


GOLD made another new 29-month intraweek and weekly closing low and closed near the low of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at $1648 will be seen this week. Nonetheless, Gold has reached a support area between $1626 and $1672 that is both relatively recent (Feb 2020) as well as from 2011 that is not likely to be broken at this time. In addition, there is a channel line that connects right around the $1650 level that offers additional support (see chart at the message board). It also needs to be mentioned that one of the factors that caused Gold to drop down to this level this past week was the increased inflation that is likely to be seen worldwide (due to the $161 billion pound stimulus package that introduced in the U.K. this week), which is unlikely to be addressed by the U.S. Fed. This means higher inflation worldwide, which in turn should make Gold more attractive to buy. As such, I do expect to see a positive reversal week this week. There is no "established" intraweek support nearby so giving a clear level where buying is to occur cannot be done. To the upside and using the intraday chart, the $1665 level is pivotal resistance, which if broken should lead Gold to target the $1700 level. Probabilities slightly favor the bulls.

OIL generated a failure signal against the bulls, having generated a weekly close on Friday below the 83.76 level that was the previous pivotal resistance level that when broken, caused Oil to rally to $130. This failure signal means the uptrend has been broken and that a sideways trend is not likely in effect. Oil did get down and closed just above an established and decent weekly close support level at 79.20 (closed on Friday at 79.44) that should hold and generate a bounce back up to the $95 level over the next couple of months. Oil did close near the low of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 78.14 will be seen this week. There is established (from 2011) intraweek support at 77.56 that should be the target this week. Nonetheless, it should end up being a positive reversal week with a green close next Friday. If a reversal is to occur, there is no resistance above until the 86.68 level is reached, meaning that if the traders feel that the selling pressure has abated, some fast and strong moves up could occur. Evidently, if the 77.56 level is broken and another red close is to happen next Friday (below 79.20), the downside target would be the $72-$74 level. Probabilities slightly favor the bulls.

DOLLAR generated a new 20-year intraweek and weekly closing high and closed on the high of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 113.23 will be seen this week. There is no intraweek resistance above until the $120 level is reached but on a weekly closing basis, there is resistance at 113.33, which was an important low weekly close made in the year 2000, which was not broken to the downside for 2 years. A close above that level next Friday would suggest the $120 level will be targeted. Support is now found on a daily closing basis at 108.22. Probabilities do favor the bears this week as the Dollar is greatly overbought and at a decent resistance level that fundamentally should not be broken until such a time that the Fed states they will be raising interest rates even "further" than already stated. As such, this week is likely to be a negative reversal week.

BITCOIN made a new 2-year intraweek and daily closing low this past week but the bulls were unable to confirm the break the day after it happened. Bitcoin is presently (Sunday 1:00pm) trading very slightly above the 18978 pivotal weekly close support (trading at 19003) and the probabilities do favor the support level breaking, which in turn would suggest that further downside toward the 12000 level is to come. A daily close above 19413 is needed to take the some sell pressure off.


Stock Analysis/Evaluation
CHART Outlooks

The market is at a very important pivotal week that is likely to decide not only the short and midterm outoook but perhaps even the long term of the market. Clear clues of that are likely to be given this week. The chances are 50-50 in either direction and therefore not a good time to make any trades unless "gambling" is what is desired. I have no new mentions at this time.

<
Updates
Updates on Held Stocks
Closed Trades, Open Positions and Stop Loss Changes
AAPL generated an inside week and given that the indexes had a significant down week, it has to be considered a positive for the bulls. In addition, the stock closed slightly above a pivotal weekly close support at 149.64, which if it holds, would suggest a rally back up to the 154.73 level (based on weekly close) would be seen. If broken, a drop down to at least $140 would be the expectation. Any daily close this week below the $147 level would be a dependable sign that the bears are the winners.

AU continued the downtrend, having made a new 40-month intraweek and weekly closing low this week. The stock closed on the low of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 11.94 will be seen this week. There is pivotal intraweek support at 11.29 (11.70 on a weekly closing basis), which if broken would weaken the chart even more. On the opposite side, pivotal short-term intraweek resistance is found at 14.29. Probabilities slightly favor the bulls for a positive reversal week.

BABA generated a new 8-year weekly closing low and closed near the low of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 78.79 will be seen this week. Then again, the intraweek low from March at 86.68 was not broken, suggesting that the new multi-year weekly closing low is not yet a "full" bear statement. In addition, there is literally a "mountain" of support between $76 and $85 from an 18-month period of time between Feb 2015 and July 2016, which is highly unlikely to be broken at this time. This is especially true considering that fundamentally, the Chinese economy is highly likely to see a substantial rally once the "zero Covid" restrictions are removed at the beginning of 2023, meaning that the traders are likely to start anticipating that move from this moment on. As such, the probabilities do favor the bulls at this time. Evidently, a weekly close below 75.85 would make this evaluation wrong.

CAT had a very negative week, having generated a new sell signal on the weekly closing chart, a new and more-indicative-than-the-previous failure signal on the same chart, and a close below the 200-week MA. All of this put together, makes the stock be the recipient of the award of "the biggest win for the bears among the Held Stocks. The stock closed on the low of the week and further downside below last week's low at 161.73 is expected to be seen. There is no intraweek support below until the 149.63 level is reached. The stock gapped down on Friday, creating a new breakaway/runaway gap formation. The gap is at 170.29. The break of the 200-week MA, currently at 168.29, is likely to be tested. The question is "when?". That depends on whether the indexes are to rally this week or head lower. Either way, at some point the $150 level should be seen. Closure of the gap is the only thing that "might" change the chart outlook.

ENG generated a new 8-week intraweek and weekly closing low and closed on the low of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 1.26 will be seen this week. The stock did close $.02 cents below the 200-week MA, currently at 1.28. As such, the close this Friday will be indicative. A green close would become a successful retest of the line and give the bulls new ammunition, while a red close would take away the control the bulls have had for the past 8 weeks. Key levels to watch on the daily closing chart are 1.16 and 1.49. A break of the former would give back control to the bears while a break of the latter would do the opposite. Probabilities are 50-50, likely based on what the index market does this week.

LI generated a positive reversal week, having made a new 17-week intraweek low but then closing green and near the high of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 25.74 will be seen this week. This positive reversal is of note, given the weakness seen everywhere else and it does strongly suggest that the probabilities now favor a bottom having been found. Confirmation of a bottom having been built will occur if the intraweek high at 28.07 is broken. The stock did generate a successful retest of a previous low weekly close at 23.97, having closed the previous week at 24.09 and in the green on Friday. On a daily closing basis, the 24.00 level is now support. Probabilities favor the bulls.

IR generated a new 9-week intraweek and weekly closing low and closed near the low of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 43.96 will be seen. Nonetheless, the bulls were successful in keeping the stock above a previous weekly close support of minor importance at 43.67 (closed at 44.07), suggesting that the stock itself seems to be outperforming the index market to the upside. On an intraweek basis, there is no support until 42.90 is reached and unless the bulls are able to generate a rally in the index market, that level should be reached. If broken, a drop down to the 200-week MA, currently at 39.94, should be seen. On a daily closing basis, short term pivotal resistance is found at 44.96. If broken, further recovery would likely be seen. Probabilities slightly favor the bears.

NEM made a new 26-month intraweek and weekly closing low but then only by $.45 cents, suggesting the selling interest might be waning. As it is, there is decent to perhaps strong intraweek support around the $40 level and the stock did get down to 40.50 this past week. Further downside is expected to be seen but likely will be limited and the probabilities do favor a positive reversal occurring this week (green close on Friday). There is daily close support at 40.91 and short-term pivotal resistance at 44.27. A break of either should bring additional movement in the direction broken.

PLNHF generated a new 28-month low weekly close and closed on the low of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 1.14 will be seen this week. Nonetheless, it does need to be mentioned (once again) that the new low weekly close was only by $.01 cents below the previous week's close and that was only $.02 cents below the previous multi-month close at 1.20. With the market being strongly down over this period of time, the action seen is more supportive than negative. On an intraweek basis, there is pivotal support at 1.08. As long as that support is not broken, the bulls are more likely to come out the winners over the midterm. On a daily closing basis, any close above 1.25 would give the edge back to the bulls.

QQQ got down to the 200-week MA, currently at 271.93, with a low this past week at 272.02. The bulls were able to keep the stock above the weekly close support at 274.69, having closed on Friday at 275.51. The stock did close near the low of the week and further downside below last week's low at 272.02 is expected to be seen this week. Intraweek support is found at 269.28, which if broken would give the bears new ammunition and open air below to the next intraweek support at $260. Very minor but likely short-term indicative resistance is found at 291.05. This does suggest that it will be very difficult for the bulls to turn this around this week unless something unexpectedly positive occurs.

SHOP generated a new 40-month weekly closing low and did close near the low of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 27.65 will be seen this week. The close is a very big negative that opens the door for a drop all the way down to the $20 level. Nonetheless and surprisingly so, the stock generated a green daily close on Friday in spite of everything else being red, suggesting there is a slight window of opportunity to negate the break of support that happened this week. For that to occur, a weekly close above 29.75 needs to occur next Friday. The same situation is found in the daily closing chart, meaning that any two days-in-a-row this week that the bulls can close above 29.75, will improve the chart outlook. On the other side of the coin, if the bulls fail to accomplish any of this, these positions need to be liquidated this week. Probabilities do favor the bears.

VET generated the 4th red weekly close in a row and in the process, has dropped 35% in price of this period of time. The stock closed on the low of the week and further downside below last week's low at 19.36 is expected to be seen. The stock did close below the 200-day MA, currently at 19.96 (closed at 19.60), and that has not happened since August 2021. All of this means that another red weekly close this Friday, would break the clear uptrend and cause the stock to drop to the next support level between 16.60 and 17.42. On the opposite side, a green close next Friday above the $20 level would give new ammunition to the bulls for a recovery rally up to the $24.00-$25.50 level. Nonetheless, at this time and likely for the rest of the year, it is unlikely that the stock will get above the 26.10 level. The stock did gap down on Friday and this is the third gap, meaning the probabilities are high that the gap will be closed and that is could happen this week. The gap is up at 21.54.

VNET generated a negative reversal week, having made a new 13-week intraweek high and then closing red and on the low of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 5.77 will be seen this week. A drop down to the recent daily close breakout level at 5.25 is expected to be seen on this move down. Nonetheless, both the chart and fundamental outlook are positive for the stock, suggesting that ultimately holding on to the stock makes sense.

ZLAB made a new 7-week intraweek and weekly closing low and in the process, broke the previous 5 low daily close supports, meaning that for now and until either good news or the Chinese market rallies, the upside is over for the rest of the year. By the same token, the bulls were able to prevent a failure signal against the bulls occurring on both the daily and weekly closing chart, having closed on Friday at 37.00 and those previous closing breakout highs are at 36.79 and at 37.07 (stock closed on Friday at 37.00). This does mean that the bulls need to step up to the plate starting on Monday with a green close and confirming it next Friday with a green weekly close as well. With this being a Chinese stock, the probabilities do favor this happening. Any red close this week below 37.00 would weaken the chart. Any daily close this week above 41.41 would give the edge back to the bulls. Probabilities favor the bulls.


1) SNDL - Averaged long at 9.05 (2 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 2.30

2) SRUTF - Averaged long at .0738 (3 mentions). No stop loss at moment. Stock closed on Friday at .0169.

3) BTZI - Averaged long at .0935 (4 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at .0135.

4) ZLAB - Averaged long at 71.955 (6 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 37.00.

5) AU - Averaged long at 26.184 (4 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 12.19.

6) BABA - Purchased at 89.86. Stop loss at 86.61. Stock closed on Friday at 78.80.

7) NEM - Averaged long at 61.492 (5 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 41.25.

8) ENG - Averaged long at 3.378 (5 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 1.26.

9) VNET - Averaged long at 5.32 (2 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 5.80.

10) AAPL - Averaged short at 158.325 (2 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 150.43.

11) CAT - Shorted at 229.67. No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 164.24.

12) LI - Averaged long at 31.942 (4 mentions. Stop loss at 25.30. Stock closed on Friday at 25.00.

13) SHOP - Averaged long at 30.17 (2 mentions). No top loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 28.76.

14) QQQ - Shorted at 332.82. No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 275.51.

15) IR - Averaged short at 51.715 (2 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 44.07.

16) VET - Purchased at 23.97. No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 19.60.

17) ZLAB - Purchased at 45.09. Liquidated at 44.70. Loss on the trade of $39 per 100 shares.


Join The Oasis and receive chart information about stocks you personally follow as well as ideas about other stocks with powerful chart patterns.

Previous Newsletters

View May 01, 2022 Newsletter

View May 08, 2022 Newsletter

View May 15, 2022 Newsletter

View May 22, 2022 Newsletter

View May 29, 2022 Newsletter

View Jun 05, 2022 Newsletter

View Jun 12, 2022 Newsletter

View Jun 19, 2022 Newsletter

View Jun 26, 2022 Newsletter

View Jul 03, 2022 Newsletter

View Jul 10, 2022 Newsletter

View Jul 17, 2022 Newsletter

View Jul 24, 2022 Newsletter

View Jul 31, 2022 Newsletter

View Aug 07, 2022 Newsletter

View Aug 14, 2022 Newsletter

View Aug 21, 2022 Newsletter

View Aug 28, 2021 Newsletter

View Sep 04, 2022 Newsletter

View Sep 11, 2022 Newsletter

View Sep 18, 2022 Newsletter

Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns.
A must have for chart aficionados!


Disclaimer

The opinions and commentaries by Mr. De Vito are not a recommendation to buy or sell, but rather a charting guideline, based on his own knowledge and experience, regarding the stocks he is following or that are brought to him by others. Mr. De Vito does not presently offer a track record of his trading experiences. No inference of success and/or failure should be assumed. The information enclosed above, regarding his background, length of trading, and experience, is correct but is not meant to suggest, state, or infer any future success in trading, based on his opinions.

The information herewith included should only be used by investors who are aware of the risk inherent in securities trading. Mr. De Vito accepts no liability whatsoever for any loss arising from any use of the information and/or comments he supplies.




The Oasis is owned by
Oasis Resolutions Inc.