Issue #792
December 4, 2022 , 2022
The Oasis

Newsletter


The newsletter with chart analysis for stocks and stock indexes

Stock Indexes Analysis/Evaluation


Market idling as traders start to take off for holiday period!

DOW Friday closing price - 34429
SPX Friday closing price - 4071
NASDAQ Friday closing price - 11994
RUT Friday closing price - 1892

The indexes continued higher this week with green weekly closes across the board. All the indexes closed on or near the highs of the week and further upside above last week's highs is expected to be seen this week (DOW above 34595, SPX above 4100, NAZ above 12115, and RUT above 1898). Nonetheless, the indexes have done very little over the past 4 weeks, with the DOW and the SPX having appreciated a little less than 2%, the NASDAQ having appreciated 1.5% and the RUT having appreciated only .3%, meaning that the rally is running out of ammunition.

The economic reports this week (ISM Index and Jobs) came in worse than expected and yet those reports were ignored. What was not ignored was the Fed Chief Powell's comments stating that he believes the Fed rate hikes may begin to wane. Nonetheless, he did caution that it does depend on the inflation data. It seems evident that the traders are hanging on to every possible positive comment and ignoring some of the actual data that is coming out. Part of this is likely to be that seasonally, the market rallies in October, November "and" December and given that the outlook is still quite uncertain, the traders are going with the seasonal trend (rather than the data). By the same token and using the seasonal trend, December is known to be a small appreciation month as traders normally key on holiday festivities more so than trading the market, meaning that if December is to be an up month, it is likely to be minor in nature.

One thing that is tied in seasonally to the action seen the past few days is that December is considered a seasonal up month but is usually limited and in small amounts but January is a flip of a coin month with 53% of the time moving higher and 47% of the time moving lower. Some of the January negative months have been quite strong, suggesting the traders will wait for the economic and earnings data that comes out in January, before making any decisions of consequence.

There is one more catalytic report left for the month and that is the inflation report (CPI) that comes out on Tuesday December 13th and given that inflation is the big factor in the market right now, that number could generate action on either side and either confirm the seasonality of December or create an exemption. Nonetheless, that number will not come out for another 7 trading days, suggesting the bulls are likely to keep the indexes moving higher this coming week, though the action seen the past 4 weeks suggests it will be in a very limited amount.

These are the chart levels to watch for this week, given that they are somewhat short-term pivotal. In the DOW and to the upside, the level to watch is 35492 and to the downside, it is 33583. In the SPX those levels are at 4177 and 3906. In the NASDAQ those levels are at 12752 and 11450. In the RUT those levels are at 1919 and at 1820.

As far as potential catalytic news this week, the only report that could have an effect is PPI, which comes out on Friday AM. It is the inflation report on the manufacturing industry and it is tied in with the CPI number. It is not normally catalytic but if it comes out much higher or much lower, it could generate some indicative movement. Otherwise, this week is likely to be like the recent weeks, which is "uneventful but with a slight upward bias".


GOLD generated a new 21-week intraweek and weekly closing high and closed near the high of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at $1818 will be seen this week. In addition, Gold generated a new and pivotal buy signal on the weekly closing chart when it closed above $1804 on Friday (closed at $1811), given that level has been resistance since June. It does mean the downtrend is now officially over and that a sideways or uptrend has begun. On a weekly closing basis, there is resistance at $1832 and at $1875, that if Gold is in a sideways trend (most likely) will stop the advance. By the same token, any weekly close above $1875 would suggest the uptrend has resumed. To the downside, the $1750 level has now become trend support, which if broken would mean the bears have gotten control back. For the next few weeks (probably until January), Gold should trade between $1832 and $1783 (based on weekly closes).

OIL generated a positive reversal week, having made a new 11-month intraweek low but then turning around, going above the previous week's high and closing green and in the upper half of the week's trading range, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 83.33 will be seen this week. Nonetheless, the action this week did not clarify much as the turnaround was mostly because OPEC ministers decided to further make a 1.5 million per day cut in production while at the same time, the G7 nations decided to cap Russian Oil at $60 per barrel. This dichotomy seems to limit the amount of upside or downside that can be seen in Oil for the short to midterm. The bulls were able to negate the sell signal given the previous week, having closed above the low weekly close at 78.74 that was broken the previous week. The news and the chart seem to suggest that Oil will be trading between 85.05 and 78.74 (using the weekly closing chart) for the rest of the year or until something additionally changes on a fundamental basis. A weekly close above 92.61 or below 76.28 would negate this chart scenario and give the bulls or the bears new ammunition.

DOLLAR made a new 5-month intraweek and weekly closing low and closed on the low of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 104.38 will be seen this week. The Dollar broke a previous low weekly close at 105.63, meaning a sell signal was generated. In addition, it closed below a previous multi-year high weekly close at 104.56 (closed at 104.51), meaning that "technically" a failure signal against the bears was also generated. The signals and action seen does mean that a top to this rally has now been officially found that would require a fundamental change to negate. Weekly close support from previous high weekly closes is found between 102.82 and 103.01 and previous low weekly close support is found at 101.67. To the upside, some minor but likely short-term weekly close resistance is found at 106.93 and stronger at 108.06. As the chart stands right now, probabilities favor the Dollar trading between 103.01 and 106.93 (based on weekly closes) for the rest of the year.

BITCOIN saw some buying coming in this past week as it rallied from 15508 to 17119 and did close near the high of the week, suggesting further upside above that level will be seen this week. Nonetheless, the bulls have not yet been able to establish that the downtrend is over as a weekly close above 17808 is required to open the door for a bottom having been found. A weekly close above 18745 would officially confirm a bottom is in place. Important weekly close support is found at 14942 and that remains a possible downside objective for the rest of the month. Nonetheless, the action seen this past week does suggest that there is some buying interest being seen.


Stock Analysis/Evaluation
CHART Outlooks

I have no mentions this week other than the one I gave on the November 13th newsletter. I did get get involved with it on Friday and the position is presently in profit but the probabilities do favor an entry point as good as the one obtained on Friday, or even perhaps a better entry point.

Here is that mention:

SHOP Friday Closing Price - 43.06

SHOP has recovered 47.6% from the 43-month low at 23.63 seen 8 weeks ago. The stock has gone straight up without any retest of the low occurring and yet there has been no positive fundamental change that has occurred to support such a rally without a form of retest of the low to occur.

The high for SHOP for the past 6 months was at 45.43, which was made in August. This resistance area is further strengthened by the 200-day MA, which is currently at 41.10. It seems highly unlikely that the resistance and the MA line get broken without positive fundamental news or help from the index market, none of which is expected to occur.

SHOP spent almost 4 months (from May to August) trading around the $30 level and it seems highly likely that level will be seen again before any new attempt to breakout occurs.

With the downside target of SHOP being the $30 level, a sale between 44.59 and 45.43 and using at 48.90 stop loss would offer a 3.4-1 risk reward ratio. Nonetheless, the risk/reward ratio is much better than that, given that if the 45.43 resistance area does get broken and the stop loss orders not targeted, if the stock does not immediately head lower, you can probably get out around the $46 level, meaning that the risk/reward ratio is more like 9-1. My rating on this trade is 3 (on a scale of 1-5 with 5 being the highest).

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Updates
Monthly & Yearly Portfolio Results
Closed Trades, Open Positions and Stop Loss Changes

Status of account for 2007: Profit of $9,758 per 100 shares after losses and commissions were subtracted.
Status of account for 2008: Profit of $14,704 per 100 shares after losses and commissions were subtracted.
Status of account for 2009: Profit of $7,523 per 100 shares after losses and commissions were subtracted.
Status of account for 2010: Profit of $24,045 per 100 shares after losses and commissions were subtracted.
Status of account for 2011: Profit of $3,616 per 100 shares after losses and commissions were subtracted.
Status of account for 2012: Profit of $3,399 per 100 shares after losses and commissions were subtracted.
Status of account for 2013: Profit of $15,886 per 100 shares after losses and commissions were subtracted.
Status of account for 2014: Profit of $21,221 per 100 shares after losses and commissions were subtracted.
Status of account for 2015: Profit of $19,190 per 100 shares after losses and commissions were subtracted.
Status of account for 2016: Loss of $15,134 per 100 shares after losses and commissions were subtracted.
Status of account for 2017: Loss of $9,666 per 100 shares after losses and commissions were subtracted.
Status of account for 2018: Profit of $1,637 per 100 shares after losses and commissions were subtracted
Status of account for 2019: Profit of $13,051per 100 shares after losses and commissions were subtracted

Status of account for 2020: Loss of $16,684 per 100 shares after losses and commissions were subtracted.
Status of account for 2021: Profit of $527 per 100 shares after losses and commissions were subtracted.

Status of account for 2022, as of 11/1

Loss of $7,570 using 100 shares per mention (after commissions & losses)

Closed out profitable trades for November per 100 shares per mention (after commission)

BABA (long) $66

Closed positions with increase in equity above last months close minus commissions.

NONE

Total Profit for November, per 100 shares and after commissions $66

Closed out losing trades for November per 100 shares of each mention (including commission)

IBM (short) $266

Closed positions with decrease in equity below last months close plus commissions.

NONE

Total Loss for November, per 100 shares, including commissions $266

Open positions in profit per 100 shares per mention as of 12/1

CAT (short) $298

Open positions with increase in equity above last months close.

AAPL (long) $1062
SNDL (long) $50
NEM (long) $2575
AU (long) $3168
BABA (long) $2398
ZLAB (long) $9768
VNET (long) $164
LI (long $3952

Total $23,435

Open positions in loss per 100 shares per mention as of 11/1

NONE

Open positions with decrease in equity below last months close.

QQQ (short) $3082
VET (long) $353
PLNHF (long) $3
CAT (short) $5985
ENG (long) $40
BTZI (long) $8
SRUTF (long) $15

Total $9,486

Status of trades for month of November per 100 shares on each mention after losses subtracted.

Profit of $13,749

Status of account/portfolio for 2022, as of 11/30

Profit of $6,179

per 100 shares.



Updates on Held Stocks

AAPL got down close to the intraweek support at 138.27, having seen a low this past week at 140.30. The rally caused by the Powell statement on Friday did bring about a recovery rally that generated a close near the high of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 149.13 will be seen this week. Nonetheless, the stock still generated a red weekly close and did not generate any kind of buy signal on the daily chart, meaning the bears remain with the edge. There is an open gap up at 149.34 that will likely be closed this week but other than removing a chart negative, closure of the gap does not change the chart at all. Intraweek resistance is found at 151.83, at 152.70 and at 153.83, with the latter also representing the 200-day MA, currently at 153.97. A close above that level would be a sign that the downtrend is over. At this time though, that does not seem to be a viable option. Some intraweek resistance is found at 144.13 and then nothing until last week's low at 140.30. Probabilities seem to favor the stock trading between $151 and $144 over the next few weeks.

AU generated another new 7-month intraweek high and weekly closing high and closed near the high of the week, suggesting further upside above last week high at 18.85 will be seen this week. There is a downside gap from May at 19.00, which likely will be closed this week and if closed, it will change the downtrend that started in March back into a sideways trend. Nonetheless, the 200-day MA is currently at 20.00 and until that line is convincingly broken, the bulls will not get anything more than a short-term edge. If all of the above happens, the 14.57-14.76 will become the new and decent intraweek and weekly close support area. Probabilities do favor the stock trading between $15 and $20 for the rest of the year, meaning that if the $20 level is reached, consideration should be given to liquidating the positions and re-buying around the $15 level.

BABA generated a new 11-week intraweek and weekly closing high and closed near the high of the way, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 91.85 will be seen this week. A new buy signal on the weekly closing chart was given when the stock closed above the previous high weekly close for the past 9 weeks at 81.24 (closed at 90.06) and a failure signal against the bears was given when the stock closed above the previous 6-year low weekly close at 86.79. There is no previous weekly close resistance above until the 97.07 level is reached. On an intraweek basis, there is no resistance until 103.52. Nonetheless, on a daily closing basis, there is resistance at the 200-day MA, currently at 93.12. That line has not been broken to the upside for 21 months and as such, a bullish statement needs to be made in order to break the line. Probabilities do favor the stock getting up to 94.84 this week but then falling back. Consideration should be given to liquidating positions near that price.

CAT rally has stalled as during the past 4 weeks, the intraweek highs have been 238.40, 239.85, 239.63 and last week at 238.47. The stock did close in the upper half of the week's trading range, suggesting further upside above that level is expected to be seen this week. Nonetheless, such a scenario has occurred twice in the last 4 weeks and on one of those occasions, the bears failed to go above the previous week's high and on the other occasion, it only did it by $1.45. It seems evident that the bulls need a new positive fundamental change for the uptrend to continue and none is likely to occur this week. Last but not least, the stock is showing 10 weeks in a row of higher lows than the previous week, meaning that the July low is not yet showing any kind of a retest of it. It also means that the bulls have not built any support level close by where new buying can occur and where some limitation of risk can be obtained. Presently and on an intraweek basis, there is some old support from April 2021 at 223.20, but it is considered minor in nature. A drop down to that level is likely to occur as soon as the bulls realize that further upside is unlikely to be seen. The next level of intraweek support is at 213.55 (minor as well) and then "a bit" stronger at 205.50. Evidently, resistance is presently found at the $240 demilitarized zone. According to JP Morgan, the stock should be around the $220 level, suggesting the stock is overpriced at this time.

ENG negated the new 10-month intraweek low and a new 24-month weekly closing low that was made last week, having closed this past week above the previous 2-year low weekly close at .865. In fact, it can be said that a potential double bottom now exists as the 85.5 low seen the previous week can be matched with the .865 low, if and when the double bottom is confirmed at some point in the near future. Confirmation at this time requires a weekly close above 1.06 to be valid. The bulls were not able to generate any other signal at this time as a daily close above .99 is required to generate a round of short covering. Daily close support at this time is found at .88 and the most likely scenario for this week is for the stock to trade between those two levels (on a daily closing basis).

LI bulls accomplished a lot this past week, having confirmed the buy signal given the previous week on the weekly closing chart, as well as generating a new failure signal against the bulls, having closed above the 17-month low weekly close at 20.92 (closed at 22.78), which when broken caused a new all-time low to be made. The stock has given an official signal that the bear trend is over, having appreciated 46.3% from the low weekly close. On an intraweek basis on the weekly chart, there is no resistance above until the 27.10 level is reached. Nonetheless, the 200-day MA is currently at 26.27 and it is not likely that line will be broken, on a daily closing basis, at this time. Intraweek support is presently found at 20.50. The stock is showing a breakaway/runaway gap formation that is supportive for the bulls. Closure of the runaway gap with a drop down to 18.84 would change the short-term chart in favor of the bears.

NEM generated a new 19-week intraweek and weekly closing high and closed near the high of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 49.65 will be seen this week. There is no intraweek resistance above given that after the earnings report in July, the stock fell straight down. The stock did break out of a bullish flag formation that offers an upside target of 53.52 for this week. The 200-week MA is currently at 53.62, meaning that a rally up to that level is highly viable. Nonetheless and with no actual positive fundamental changes to the company, it is highly likely that after that line is reached, that a drop back down to $45-$46 level will be seen. As such, any rally above the $53 level should be reason to consider liquidation of the positions. Any daily close below 46.41 would now be considered a negative as the flag formation will be negated if that occurs.

PLNHF generated a new 2-month intraweek and weekly closing high and closed on the high of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 1.44 will be seen this week. There was an established intraweek double high at 1.40 that got broken, which opens the door for a rally all the way up to the 1.70-1.74 level. On a daily closing basis, the 1.38 level is now support. The 200-day MA is currently at 1.66 and that is a viable target for this week or next.

SHOP generated a new 17-week intraweek high and a new 32-week weekly closing high and closed in the upper half of the week's trading range, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 45.05 will be seen this week. There is still intraweek resistance at 45.43 and at 48.40 that would need to be broken to make this a true breakout. The stock closed above the 200-day MA, currently at 41.30 (closed at 43.06) and if that gets confirmed and established, it will mean higher prices. Nonetheless, the bulls have one big problem and that is the fact that the stock has gone from a bear trend to a bull trend without a change of fundamentals and the original breakdown area at 30.11 has not yet been tested in a convincing way (minor retest at 36.59). The recent rally is probably more about the Holiday shopping that has been seen recently and that has broken online-shopping records than it is about the fundamental health of the company, meaning that this rally is not likely to do everything that is required to actually make the stock get into a bull trend. I did put out a sell mention a few weeks ago to sell the stock around the $45 level with a stop loss at 48.90 (shorted at 44.97) but it is likely the stock will go a bit higher this week (probably to around 45.43) where consideration can be given to shorting the stock (if not done on Friday). Any daily close below 40.02 would be a signal that the rally is likely over.

QQQ generated a new 11-week intraweek and weekly close and closed near the high of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 295.75 will be seen this week. The stock did generate a positive reversal week, having gone below the previous week's low and then going above the previous week's high. By doing that, it can be said that the breakout above the 200-week MA, currently at 277.74, will receive a successful retest of that line using last weeks' low at 279.17, if and when the stock does go above last week's high. There is no intraweek resistance above until 296.75 (minor) and then at 303.50 (minor to perhaps decent) are reached, meaning that the bulls do have a very positive short-term scenario in their favor. The 200-day MA is currently at 305.33 and that can be a magnet. Nonetheless, the last time the bulls attempted to reach the line they failed by $7, meaning that a rally up to the 296.75 level seems likely to occur but the bulls will need something tangibly positive to get above the $298 level. A break below 279.17 would give short-term control back to the bears. The stock closed on Friday at 292.55.

VET generated another red weekly close (4th in a row) but for the past 2 weeks the bears have failed to make new intraweek lows below the low made 4 weeks ago at 18.35 (the low the previous week was also 18.35 and last week it was 18.42). This means that the bears have "lost a step" in their quest for lower prices. The stock closed very slightly in the lower half of the week's trading range (by just $.09), suggesting about an even chance of going below last week's low at 18.43 than going above last week's high at 20.25. With OPEC deciding to cut production by 1.5 million barrels per day and giving Oil a new fundamental support base, the probabilities do slightly favor the bulls as the stock is oversold and showing a clear support level. Upside objective (if the bulls win) is the 200-day MA, currently at 21.70. A break of the intraweek support at 18.38 would likely cause the stock to fall down to the next support level at 18.08.

VNET did follow through to the downside (as expected) but did generate a positive reversal week, having closed green and slightly in the upper half of the week's trading range, suggesting a slightly higher probability of going above last week's high at 5.22 than below last week's low at 4.62. Nonetheless, the stock remains in a trading limbo as the traders await the outcome of the proposed merger at $8 a share. For now, the chart does not favor either side as it seems to be in a trading range between 4.50 and 6.00. Midterm pivotal resistance is at 6.43, which if broken would make the $8 level the objective.

ZLAB did not see any follow through to the downside (contrary to what was expected) and did generate a small spike up type rally with a green weekly close and in the upper half of the week's trading range, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 39.33 will be seen this week. With the Chinese stock market likely to go higher, probabilities favor a small breakout this week. What likely held this stock down this past week (contrary to BABA and LI) is that the 200-day MA, currently at 38.04, kept the bulls "in check". That line has held up for 14-months with one minor exception seen in September. Nonetheless, the stock has now been tested the line on 3 occasions, meaning that if broken now, it would likely be decisive. For that to happen and be confirmed, the stock needs to get above 40.30 and close above 38.71 for two straight days. Pivotal intraweek support is now found at 30.37. Probabilities favor the bulls.


1) SNDL - Averaged long at 9.05 (2 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 3.13.

2) SRUTF - Averaged long at .0738 (3 mentions). No stop loss at moment. Stock closed on Friday at .007. .

3) BTZI - Averaged long at .0935 (4 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at .008. .

4) ZLAB - Averaged long at 71.955 (6 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 36.59.

5) AU - Averaged long at 26.184 (4 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 18.66.

6) BABA - Purchased at 89.86. No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 90.06.

7) NEM - Averaged long at 61.492 (5 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 48.67.

8) ENG - Averaged long at 3.378 (5 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at .94.

9) VNET - Averaged long at 5.32 (2 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 4.97.

10) AAPL - Averaged short at 147.90 (2 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 147.81.

11) CAT - Averaged short at 211.9675 (4 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 236.13.

12) LI - Averaged long at 31.942 (4 mentions. No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 22.78.

13) QQQ - Shorted at 282.51. Stop loss at 284.35. Stock closed on Friday at 292.55.

14) VET - Purchased at 20.38. No Stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 19.27.

15) SHOP - Shorted at 44.97. Stop loss is at 48.90. Stock closed on Friday at 43.06.


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Disclaimer

The opinions and commentaries by Mr. De Vito are not a recommendation to buy or sell, but rather a charting guideline, based on his own knowledge and experience, regarding the stocks he is following or that are brought to him by others. Mr. De Vito does not presently offer a track record of his trading experiences. No inference of success and/or failure should be assumed. The information enclosed above, regarding his background, length of trading, and experience, is correct but is not meant to suggest, state, or infer any future success in trading, based on his opinions.

The information herewith included should only be used by investors who are aware of the risk inherent in securities trading. Mr. De Vito accepts no liability whatsoever for any loss arising from any use of the information and/or comments he supplies.




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