Issue #787
October 23, 2022 , 2022 | Newsletter
The newsletter with chart analysis for stocks and stock indexes |
Stock Indexes Analysis/Evaluation
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| Bulls Manage to turn the Table on the Bears. NFLX was the Catalyst.
DOW Friday closing price - 31082
The indexes were able to generate a 5% rally this past week based on a better than expected NLFX earnings report that gave hope to the bulls that this coming week, the rest of the "big 5" companies (AAPL, AMZN, GOOGL and META) will do the same. In addition, CAT, GM, MSFT and MMM will also be reporting as well, meaning that this coming week will be all about earnings. Inflation and the Fed rate hikes took a back seat this past week and will do the same this week, given that all of the negatives of that scenario have already been factored into the equation. Traders are hoping that the extremely negative scenario that has been talked about recently is not going to be strongly reflected in the earnings reports due out this week.
From a chart point of view, the bulls were able to generate a positive signal in all indexes on the weekly closing charts this past week, inasmuch as all of them were able to close above previous low weekly closes that when broken brought additional sell pressure. Having closed above those levels means that failure signals against the bears were given on Friday. It is interesting to note that most of the indexes traded below those pivotal levels at the beginning of the day on Friday but then by the end of the day, it became evident that the bears were not going to be able to defend their position and everything rallied strongly in the last hour of trading. By the same token and as stated repeatedly in the past, any signal given needs to be confirmed the following week and since there are a slew of important earnings reports this week, it does suggest that next Friday's close will have quite a bit of importance for the short term.
The outlook for the beginning of the week is not clear as there is a clear dichotomy in the index market. The DOW has no intraweek resistance above until 31885 is reached (800 points higher). Nonetheless, the SPX has short-term pivotal resistance at 3806 (54 points higher) and the NASDAQ 11660 (350 points higher). The RUT has no resistance above until 1906 (164 points higher) but then again, the index is still trading below the 200-week MA, currently at 1796 (54 points higher).
The first earnings report of consequence (GOOGL) is due out Tuesday afternoon after the close of the market and META on Wednesday morning. AAPL and AMZN come out Thursday after the close. As far as economic reports of any consequence this week, the Consumer Confidence number comes out on Tuesday AM and then the new GDP number comes out Thursday morning.
The indexes closed on the highs of the week on Friday and are likely to above last week's highs on Monday (DOW at 31119, SPX at 3762, NAZ at 11374). The intraweek resistance levels mentioned above are not likely to be broken until the earnings reports come out and only if they are better than expected.
This coming week will be all about the earnings reports and that will decide what is to happen thereafter. The levels to watch to the downside for any clues are Friday's lows (DOW at 30206, SPX at 3647, and NASDAQ at 10962). All indexes generated a positive reversal day on Friday, having gone below Thursday's lows and then closing above all of the highs of the week. As such, a break of Friday's lows will totally deflate the bull win seen last week.
I have no probability numbers to offer given that it will all depend on the earnings reports this week. Overall though, there is no tangible reason yet to believe that a recession will be avoided and given that there has not yet been any positive change in the fundamentals and that the recent lows have not yet been tested, it would suggest that this rally will be limited (no matter what the earnings reports show). That means that at the very least, a move back down close to the recent lows will be seen at some point over the next 4-6 weeks (if not sooner).
OIL generated a positive reversal week, having gone below the previous week's low and then closing green in the upper half of the week's trading range, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 87.14 will be seen this week. If that does occur, a successful retest of the recent low at 75.70 will have occurred. Pivotal intraweek resistance is found at 92.34, which if broken would mean that the downtrend that started in June is over and a recovery rally would then likely ensue. Given the recent OPEC decision to cut production, the now slightly positive outlook for Gold and the rally in the index market that opens the possibility that the lows for the year have been made, the probabilities do favor a bottom having been made and a recovery rally to ensue, which could have an objective as high as 104.80. On a short term basis (this week), intraweek resistance is found at 87.14, at 88.33 and at 90.34. To the downside, intraweek support is found at 81.33 and at 80.48. Anything above 90.34 or below 80.48 will be highly indicative. Probabilities favor the bulls but they also favor Oil staying within that range.
DOLLAR generated a negative reversal week, having gone above the previous week's high but then closing below the previous week's low and on the low of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 111.70 will be seen this week. Nonetheless, the action seen was not very indicative of anything other than a pause in the uptrend might be happening. The intraweek parameters to watch for some longer-term indication are 114.78 and 110.06 (closed on Friday at 111.88). As long as the Dollar trades within that trading range, it is simply on a pause period with the traders awaiting further fundamental news. The potential trading parameters for this week (using the daily chart) are 110.77 and 113.10. Probabilities favor the bears this week but overall the bulls still have the edge.
BITCOIN has been idling now for the past 5 weeks with neither the bulls nor bears able to do anything. This was even more evident this week as it generated an inside week and a close in the exact middle of the week, giving no clues whatsoever on direction. The weekly closes for the past 5 weeks are: 18935, 19317, 19418, at 19072 and presently trading at 19237. As such and once again, there are no new comments that can be given at this time. A daily close below 18476 will give the bears further ammunition and total control and a daily close above 20308 will give the bulls "some" ammunition for further recovery.
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Stock Analysis/Evaluation
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CHART Outlooks
With earnings reports likely to be a deciding factor this week on a short-term direction, no mentions can be given. The situation favors the bears and as such, if any positions are to be considered it would be short positions. Nonetheless, at this time there are no dependable (or attractive) risk/reward ratios that can used.
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Updates
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| Updates on Held Stocks |
Closed Trades, Open Positions and Stop Loss Changes |
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AAPL made a new 3-week intraweek high and closed on the high of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 147.85 will be seen this week. The is a decent amount and clearly established daily "and" weekly close resistance around the $150 level that is unlikely to be broken unless the earnings report on Thursday afternoon is substantially better than expected. There is very minor intraweek support at 142.12 and then a bit stronger around $138. This is one of the "big 5" earnings reports that come out every quarter and it is normally a catalytic report. The fundamentals presently favor the bears for some further downside, especially given that the recent low at 134.37 has not been tested yet. AU generated an inside week but a green weekly close and on the high of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 13.22 will be seen this week. More importantly the green weekly close means that the recent 41-month low weekly close at 12.16 has now been tested successfully with the previous week's weekly close at 12.38. Any weekly close now above 14.44 would confirm that a bottom has been built and that the downtrend is over. On a daily closing basis, there is short-term indicative resistance at 14.10. Any daily close below 12.38 would re-strengthen the bear hand. BABA continued with yet another new 78-month intraweek and weekly closing low and closed near the low of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 69.47 will be seen this week. On an intraweek basis there is support at 59.25 and the all-time intraweek low is at 57.20. Nonetheless, the stock generated a positive reversal day on Friday and the first course of business for the week is likely to be to the upside and above Friday's high at 72.79. If the bulls are able to get above Thursday's high at 74.94, a rally might start. Xi got re-elected on Friday evening and it is possible (maybe even likely) that he will do (or say) something tomorrow (Sunday) before the market opens. As such, it is possible that the stock could turn around strongly. If nothing is said and the Chinese market continues lower, it may be time to get out and take the losses. CAT broke above two minor level of resistance on the weekly chart at 187.06 and at 189.49. The stock closed on the high of the week and further upside above last week's high at 190.41 is expected to be seen this week. The company reports earnings on Tuesday morning and that is likely to be a decisive factor on what the stock does from here. There is some minor daily close resistance at 192.40 and then decent to strong up between 198.25 and 198.44, which is further strengthened by the 200-day MA, which is currently at 199.10. It is important to note that the stock has rallied without a single intraweek retest of the recent low at 160.60. Given that there has been no positive fundamental change in the company or in the index market, a retest is a very high probably of occurring, suggesting that if any of the upper levels mention above are reached this week after the earnings report is out, shorting the stock would likely generate a winning trade. Stop loss would be placed at 200.47. Downside target would be the 167.08-169.25 level (prior intraweek low and 200-week MA respectively). There is short-term pivotal intraweek support at 179.21, which if broken would open the door for the downside target to be achieved. ENG made a new 16-week intraweek and weekly closing low and closed in the lower half of the week's trading range, suggesting further downside below last week's low at .95 will be seen this week. Nonetheless, on a weekly closing basis, the stock is now at a level of support between .97 and 1.00 that is considered decent to perhaps strong and it will likely require a negative fundamental situation to break this area. The company reports earnings the following week on November 3rd. Intraweek support is found at .91. Minor but likely short-term pivotal resistance is found at 1.16 and pivotal resistance is found at 1.45. Probabilities favor a positive reversal week and a recovery rally beginning. LI made a new 16-month intraweek low and a new 24-month weekly closing low and closed in the lower half of the week's trading range, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 16.54 will be seen this week. Nonetheless, some buying interest started to be found given that the stock made the new low on Wednesday, generated an inside day but with a green close on Thursday, and then generated a positive reversal day on Friday. This action means that on Friday, it went below Thursday's low and closed above Thursday's high, thus opening the door for a successful retest of the low having been accomplished. To confirm this retest as successful, a rally above 21.18 would need to be seen. Nonetheless, it is a sign that perhaps the bottom has either been found or is close by. Intraweek support of consequence is found at 15.98. This is a Chinese stock that the same as stated for BABA applies here. NEM generated an uneventful inside week. Nonetheless, it did close green and near the high of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 42.57 will be seen this week. It is important to note that on the daily chart, a short-term bullish inverted Head and Shoulders formation has been built with the right shoulder being at 45.23. A break of that level would generate an objective of 50.46. The stock does have a bearish breakaway/runaway gap formation with the runaway gap being at 50.86, meaning that if a rally does occur up to the 50.46 level (now looking more probable than not), it would not be a longer term bullish sign. As such, and considering that for now it is unlikely that the index market will be making new lows, the probability is high that the stock will see this recovery rally occur. Any break below the recent low at 40.00 would negate this scenario. PLNHF generated a 2nd uneventful inside week that did nothing to clarify the chart. The stock did close green but near the low of the week, suggesting that further downside below last week's low at 1.16 will be seen this week. Nonetheless, if that does occur but the recent low at 1.03 is not broken, it could become the needed/required retest of the low that could signal that a bottom has been built to this downtrend. Short-term pivotal resistance is found at 1.36. QQQ generated a green week and did close above the 200-week MA, currently at 274.09, with a close at 275.42. The stock closed near the high of the day, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 277.21 will be seen this week. Short-term pivotal resistance is found at 284.18, which if broken would likely generate a rally up to the 303.50 level. This stock (and it's mother index) will be the recipient of most of the important earnings reports due out this week (AAPL, AMZN and GOOGL) and as such, the action seen will be dependent on what those reports say. Presently, some short-term pivotal intraweek support is found at 266.82. SHOP generated a green week and closed near the high of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 30.82 will be seen this week. The action seen does open the door for the previous week's low at 23.63 now becoming a bottom to the downtrend. Pivotal short-term resistance is found at 31.85, which if broken should confirm a bottom has been found. Nonetheless, such action would also require a weekly close above 30.11 to occur, to validate it all. Nonetheless, the company reports earnings Thursday morning and it will all be about the report and about how the indexes do after all the big reports this week are out. Short-term intraweek support is now found at 26.38. VET generated a green week and a close on the high of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 22.77 will be seen this week. The stock did go above the previous week's high, making the previous week's intraweek low at 20.06 into a successful retest of the 20-week low at 20.06, which was made 5 weeks ago. Pivotal resistance is now found at 24.01, which if broken would confirm that the chart is fulfilled to the downside and that some form of retest of the August high at 30.17 is to come. Any break below 20.06 would be a "balloon buster". VNET made a new 4-week intraweek high and closed green but closed near the low of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 4.88 will be seen this week. If that does occur and the bulls are able to stay above the recent 5-week low at 4.37, and then rally above whatever high is made this week, the chart will be fulfilled to the downside. Under that scenario, the traders will likely begin to key on accomplishing the 3rd (and hopefully last) retest of the 200-day MA, currently at 6.16. A confirmed close above that line would suggest a strong recovery rally is to occur. Any break below 4.37 would now be a big negative. ZLAB made a new 20-week low and got down to an important and established intraweek support at 25.78 (got down to 25.85). The stock closed in the middle of the week's trading range, suggesting equal chances of going below last week's low at 25.85 or above last week's high at 31.82. Like with all Chinese stocks, the traders are waiting to see what comes out of China this week regarding any economic support actions that the now re-elected XI might announce tonight. If anything positive does come out, all Chinese companies are likely to rally and this one likely the most given the positive fundamentals surrounding the company. Any break below 25.78 would be a negative sign, while any rally above last week's high would be the opposite. No intraweek resistance is found until 38.10 is reached. Probabilities do favor the bulls but given that it is all about the political action of the government, it is impossible to ascertain what will actually occur.
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1) SNDL - Averaged long at 9.05 (2 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 2.17 2) SRUTF - Averaged long at .0738 (3 mentions). No stop loss at moment. Stock closed on Friday at .02. 3) BTZI - Averaged long at .0935 (4 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at .0106 . 4) ZLAB - Averaged long at 71.955 (6 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 28.69. 5) AU - Averaged long at 26.184 (4 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 13.17. 6) BABA - Purchased at 89.86. No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 72.16. 7) NEM - Averaged long at 61.492 (5 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 42.37. 8) ENG - Averaged long at 3.378 (5 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 1.01. 9) VNET - Averaged long at 5.32 (2 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 5.34. 10) AAPL - Averaged short at 147.90 (2 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 147.27. 11) CAT - Averaged short at 204.80 (2 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 190.22. 12) LI - Averaged long at 31.942 (4 mentions. No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 18.72. 13) SHOP - Shorted at 27.75. Averaged short at 29.575 (2 mentions). Stop loss at 31.95. Stock closed on Friday at 29.75. 14) QQQ - Shorted at 282.51. Stop loss at 284.35. Stock closed on Friday at 275.42. 15) VET - Purchased at 20.38. Stop loss at 19.65. Stock closed on Friday at 22.53.
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The opinions and commentaries by Mr. De Vito are not a recommendation to buy or sell, but rather
a charting guideline, based on his own knowledge and experience, regarding the stocks he is following or
that are brought to him by others. Mr. De Vito does not presently offer a track record of his trading experiences.
No inference of success and/or failure should be assumed. The
information enclosed above, regarding his background, length of trading, and experience, is correct
but is not meant to suggest, state, or infer any future success in trading, based on his opinions. The information herewith included should only be used by investors who are aware of the risk inherent in securities trading. Mr. De Vito accepts no liability whatsoever for any loss arising from any use of the information and/or comments he supplies. |
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