Issue #791
November 27, 2022 , 2022 | Newsletter
The newsletter with chart analysis for stocks and stock indexes |
Stock Indexes Analysis/Evaluation
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| Dichotomies and Confusion Abound. Direction of Overall Market not Clear!
DOW Friday closing price - 34347
The indexes did very little over the past 2 weeks but one thing that did continue was the dichotomy between the DOW and the other indexes. The DOW rallied a total of 1.8% over the past 2 weeks but the SPX only rallied .8% and the NASDAQ actually fell .6% and the RUT fell .7%. The dichotomy continues to suggest that this rally is more about not committing to the downside but not speculating that much more upside is to be seen.
Nonetheless, the bulls did accomplish a feat that was not expected to occur, and that is breaking a pivotal intraweek, daily and weekly closing resistance in the DOW at 34281, at 34152 and at 33761 (respectively). That was the high made in April and clearly represented the downtrend seen this year. It also represented the bear market that started at the beginning of the year and that was not expected to end for another 12-18 months. At this time and without the index confirming the break of resistance that occurred this week and/or the other indexes giving some kind of confirmation signal themselves, it is impossible to evaluate or assess what this all means.
It is evident that the NASDAQ and the RUT are lagging behind and with the recent 5 big earnings reports in NAZ stocks having been negative, it is unlikely either of these two indexes will help in the overall evaluation of the status of the market. As such, it is the SPX, which is usually the mediator between all the indexes, that will be watched this week for clues.
The SPX is still in a downtrend and in a bear market but is somewhat close to a couple of levels that can be at least short-term pivotal that are likely to decide what will happen the rest of the year. The 200-day MA is currently at 4056 and with the index closing at 4026 on Friday, it is a level that can easily be reached this week. In addition, there is a 3-point downtrend line on the weekly chart at 4100 and minor but likely short-term intraweek resistance at 4110 that all need to be broken to confirm what happened last week in the DOW. By the same token, the 3906 level, if broken, would do the exact opposite.
There are economic reports of consequence this week that will likely help to determine what the market will do in December. On Tuesday, the Consumer Confidence report comes out. The last high was 107.6 and the last low was 96.8. A break of either would be indicative. Nonetheless, it is expected to come out at 100.00, meaning it is not likely to be indicative. On Thursday, the ISM Index report is due out around the 50 level and unless it comes out at least 3 points higher or lower, it is unlikely to have much of an effect. On Friday, the Jobs report comes out and it is due to be around the 200k level. The same applies here with a number at least 50k above or below the expected number to have much of an effect. As such, it is not likely either of these reports will have much of an impact, meaning that paying attention to the charts is still likely to be what is important this week.
December is known to be a seasonally positive month, meaning that from that point of view, this rally is likely to continue. For the past 4 months, the seasonal trends have been maintained (August and September = down and October and November = up), meaning that from this point of view, the bulls have the upper hand. By the same token, December has "rarely" been a big month in either direction, so big things are not likely to happen. It does need to be mentioned though, that January has been a big month on several occasions and usually it is a seasonal down month. For this week, watching the SPX and the 3900 and 4110 area for chart clues is the thing to do. .
I will venture to guess that this week will determine what happens the rest of the year. As such, this week is what the bulls and bears will be watching and fighting for.
OIL generated a new sell signal, having made a new 11-month intraweek and weekly closing low and breaking the most recent intraweek low at 76.25 and breaking the low weekly close at 78.74. Oil closed near the low of the week and further downside below last week's low at 75.08 is expected to be seen this week. On a daily closing basis, there is some support at 75.15 and on a weekly closing basis at 74.07 but these supports are from previous high daily and weekly closes and therefore automatically considered to be minor supports. Below those two levels, there is no support below until the $70-$71 level is reached. On both a daily and weekly closing basis, the 83.76 level is now resistance. It must be stated that level has been pivotal for the last year, both as support and resistance, meaning it is likely to be pivotal again. The chart looks bearish but much of the recent weakness has been fundamental and regarding the G7 group deciding what level is a level to use as a basis for Russia. Presently, they are discussing the $65-$70 level. As such, if that changes, the chart will change. At this time though, the probabilities favor the bears.
DOLLAR made another new 3-month low weekly close and once again closed near the low of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 105.63 will be seen this week. On a weekly closing basis, the 105.63 level is pivotal support (105.09 on a daily closing basis), which if broken would suggest a drop down to $101-$104 will be seen (weekly close support at 103.01). As stated two weeks ago, the 108.54 level on a daily closing basis, is now short-term pivotal resistance and the Dollar did get up to 107.99 and closed at 107.75 but the bulls were unable to take it higher. This action (not reaching resistance) is actually considered additionally negative and does increase the probabilities of lower prices. Probabilities favor the bears.
BITCOIN made yet another new 24-month intraweek and weekly closing low and is presently trading on the low of the week, suggesting further downside next week, below the low made so far at 15508. There is weekly close support at 14942, suggesting that some short-covering and perhaps some bargain basement buying will start to be seen this week. The 14942 was the high weekly close made in December 2017 and did last without breaking for the subsequent 34 months. It is the downside target for now and from which a bounce could occur. Daily close resistance will now be found 17808. Probabilities favor Bitcoin trading between $15000 and $18000 for the rest of the year unless some new fundamental news comes out.
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Stock Analysis/Evaluation
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CHART Outlooks
There is no way to trust any chart evaluation at this time because there is no clarity in the minds of the people-in-the-know, meaning that the probability rating on any trade is low. As such, giving mentions is almost as much a gamble as it is an investment. Until more clarity, or at least more "unison in action" is seen, giving mentions does not make sense. As it is, December is not usually a good trading month seasonally.
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Updates
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| Updates on Held Stocks |
Closed Trades, Open Positions and Stop Loss Changes |
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AAPL generated an uneventful inside week but did close red and near the lows of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 146.93 will be seen this week. The stock remains in a clear midterm downtrend but the short-term chart remains slightly biased to the upside as a bullish flag formation is found on the daily chart which offers a 165.15 objective if the top of the flag (at 153.59) is broken. On the other side of the coin, if the bottom of the flag at 146.15 is broken, it does offer a 137.69 downside objective. It does need to be mentioned that the 200-day MA is currently at 154.60 and that line has not been broken to the upside since August. As such, a breakout above the flag will not necessarily give a high probability scenario for the flag objective to be reached.
The weekly chart generally takes precedence but the fundamental picture is so skewed at this time that it is difficult to give a probability assessment at this time. AU generated a new 7-month intraweek high and weekly closing high and closed near the high of the week, suggesting further upside above last week high at 18.56 will be seen this week. There is a downside gap from May at 19.00, which likely will be closed this week and if closed, it will change the downtrend that started in March back into a sideways trend. Nonetheless, the 200-day MA is currently at 20.00 and until that line is convincingly broken, the bulls will not get anything more than a short-term edge. If all of the above happens, the 14.57-14.76 will become the new and decent intraweek and weekly close support area. Probabilities do favor the stock trading between $15 and $20 for the rest of the year, meaning that if the $20 level is reached, consideration should be given to liquidating the positions and re-buying around the $15 level. BABA generated an uneventful inside week but did close near the low of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 74.58 will be seen this week. There is clear intraweek support of some consequence at 73.28 that is likely to be the downside objective for this week. Nonetheless and using the daily closing chart, the door is open for a drop all the way down to the $70 demilitarized zone, if and when the fundamental situation in China (zero Covid) is exacerbated in any way. Short-term pivotal resistance is found at 78.85 and pivotal resistance is found at 85.68, which if broken would suggest a rally up to the 200-day MA, currently at 94.13, would be seen. The fundamental news from China on the Zero Covid issue remains the driver to both the downside and the upside. CAT generated a relatively uneventful inside week but did close in the upper half of the week's trading range, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 239.63 will be seen this week. Nonetheless and looking at the daily chart, the stock is now showing a successful retest of the recent 18-month intraweek high at 239.85, with the 239.63 high seen on Wednesday, followed by a lower low on Friday, meaning that the charts are somewhat in conflict at this time. Pivotal intraweek support is found at 225.51, which if broken would be a tangible sign that the rally high has been reached. A break above the $240 demilitarized zone would suggest a rally up to the 245.78-246.69 will occur. The dichotomy between the charts, makes the possible action this week, a toss up. ENG made a new 10-month intraweek low and a new 24-month weekly closing low this past week but did close in the upper half of the week's trading range, suggesting further upside above last week's high at .91 will be seen this week. Using the daily closing chart, there is now a double bottom at .83 and .82 that if confirmed would likely generate a strong short-covering rally and new buying interest. A daily close above .88 would increase the probabilities of the double bottom being in place and a daily close above .99 would confirm it. Evidently, any daily close below .82 would further weaken the chart. Probabilities do favor the bulls. LI generated a 2nd red weekly close and closed in the lower half of the week's trading range, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 16.22 will be seen this week. Nonetheless, the pullback being seen is normal as the stock had rallied 36.3% over the previous 4 weeks after having made a new all-time low and as such, a retest of that low was expected to be seen. There is decent intraweek support at 15.96, which if it holds and the stock rallies from there, would be considered the necessary/required retest of the low and would open the door for a rally up to the $22-$23 level. There is a gap at 15.15 that could be a magnet for closure, if and when the ZeroCovid restrictions remains an issue. If that gap is not closed (but the stock does drop down to 15.96), another gap to the upside would need to occur, to further strength the chart. NEM generated a positive reversal week, having made a new 2-week low but then closing green and near the high of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 46.59 will be seen this week. There is some pivotal resistance at 46.95, which if broken would suggest a rally up to the 200-week MA, currently at 53.54, would be seen. There is an open gap on the weekly chart at 50.84 that would need to be closed for that objective to be reached. Nonetheless and given that it seems the downtrend is over, probabilities of the gap being closed are high. Short-term pivotal support is found at 44.05, which if broken would change the short-term chart picture. PLNHF generated an inside week but did close green and on the high of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 1.35 will be seen this week. For the past 7 weeks, the stock has been trading sideways between 1.10 and 1.40 but on Friday, the stock did generate the highest weekly close in the past 12 weeks, suggesting that it is now ready to break out and make a statement. Evidently, the 1.40 level is pivotal resistance as it has been the intraweek high on 2 different occasions since October 7th. A break of that level would leave "open air" up to the 1.70-1.74 level, meaning that a 20% move up could occur over a very short period of time (1-2 weeks). As far as support is concerned, the 1.10 level remains pivotal support. QQQ generated a positive reversal week, having made a new 2-week low but then closing green and in the upper half of the week's trading range, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 289.46 will be seen this week. If that does occur, the bulls could say that technically the stock has accomplished a successful retest of the 200-week MA, currently at 277.12. The daily chart is also showing a bullish flag formation with the flagpole being the rally from 259.08 to 293.36 and the flag being the trading seen recently down to 280.46. A break above the top of the flag would offer a 314.64 objective. By the same token, the 200-day MA is currently at 306.94, and that line has not been broken to the upside since January 20, meaning that the flag formation has some serious obstacles to overcome even if the top of the flag is broken. To the downside, a drop below 280.46 would not only negate the flag but offer a downside objective of 268.56, which is where there is an open gap to the upside. Evidently, the 280.46 and 293.36 levels are short-term pivotal and with the stock closing on Friday at 286.92, it is in the exact middle of that trading range, meaning there is no clear outlook, at this time, for direction this week. VET generated an uneventful inside red week but did close near the high of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 19.67 will be seen this week. Nonetheless, the red weekly close (by $.16 cents) did confirm the previous week's sell signal when the stock closed below the established weekly close support at 19.63, meaning that the bears do have short-term control at this time. With the Oil market also showing a short-term weak chart, the downside objective for the stock is 17.42. This does mean that if the stock does rally above 19.67 at the beginning of the week, consideration to liquidating the positions should be given. If the stock does get above last week's high on Monday, it is possible that a rally as high as the 200-day MA, currently at 21.69, could be seen. VNET reported earnings this week and they were slightly lower than expected. As such, the stock generated a red weekly close and closed 3.7% lower than the previous weeks' close. The stock closed in the lower half of the week's trading range, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 4.77 will be seen this week. The stock remains in a trading limbo as the traders await the outcome of the proposed merger at $8 a share. In the meantime, the bears have re-established a slight edge given that the proposed merger has not advanced one iota for the past few months. Potential downside objective for this week could be as low as 4.45. The merger remains a supportive force and therefore it is unlikely that any breaks of support will occur. Midterm pivotal resistance is at 6.43, which if broken would make the $8 level the objective. ZLAB generated another red weekly close and closed in the lower half of the week's trading range, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 30.37 will be seen this week. Intraweek support is found at 28.18 and at 27.44 and then decent and likely not breakable at 25.78. Some minor but short-term pivotal resistance is found at 33.69 and then nothing until 37.50. Like with all the Chinese stocks, the ZeroCovid issue remains the key.
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1) SNDL - Averaged long at 9.05 (2 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 2.71. 2) SRUTF - Averaged long at .0738 (3 mentions). No stop loss at moment. Stock closed on Friday at .013. . 3) BTZI - Averaged long at .0935 (4 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at .0085. . 4) ZLAB - Averaged long at 71.955 (6 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 31.72. 5) AU - Averaged long at 26.184 (4 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 18.16. 6) BABA - Purchased at 89.86. No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 75.50. 7) NEM - Averaged long at 61.492 (5 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 45.85. 8) ENG - Averaged long at 3.378 (5 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at .855. 9) VNET - Averaged long at 5.32 (2 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 4.89. 10) AAPL - Averaged short at 147.90 (2 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 148.11. 11) CAT - Shorted at 239.39. Averaged short at 211.9675 (4 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 235.70. 12) LI - Averaged long at 31.942 (4 mentions. No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 16.81. 13) QQQ - Shorted at 282.51. Stop loss at 284.35. Stock closed on Friday at 286.92. 14) VET - Purchased at 20.38. No Stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 19.36. 15) BABA - Purchased at 75.19. Liquidated at 71.85. Profit of $66 per 100 shares.
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The opinions and commentaries by Mr. De Vito are not a recommendation to buy or sell, but rather
a charting guideline, based on his own knowledge and experience, regarding the stocks he is following or
that are brought to him by others. Mr. De Vito does not presently offer a track record of his trading experiences.
No inference of success and/or failure should be assumed. The
information enclosed above, regarding his background, length of trading, and experience, is correct
but is not meant to suggest, state, or infer any future success in trading, based on his opinions. The information herewith included should only be used by investors who are aware of the risk inherent in securities trading. Mr. De Vito accepts no liability whatsoever for any loss arising from any use of the information and/or comments he supplies. |
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