Issue #790
November 13, 2022 , 2022
The Oasis

Newsletter


The newsletter with chart analysis for stocks and stock indexes

Stock Indexes Analysis/Evaluation


Inflation Topping Out? Overreaction of the bulls to the upside seen? Probably!

DOW Friday closing price - 33747
SPX Friday closing price - 3992
NASDAQ Friday closing price - 11817
RUT Friday closing price - 1882

The indexes all generated a strong up week with appreciation in price being anywhere from a high of 8.2% in the NASDAQ to the low of 4% in the DOW (SPX at 5.6% and RUT at 4.4%). The fact the NAZ appreciated the most does give credibility to the rally, as it has been the laggard during the past few months. It does suggest that perhaps the entire market is moving a bit more in-sync rather they the dichotomy that had been seen recently. The indexes all closed on the highs of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's highs (DOW at 33817, SPX at 4001, NAZ at 11840 and RUT at 1899) will be seen this week.

This strong rise in prices this week was due to a lower than expected CPI number that showed the rate of inflation dropping to an annualized rate of 7.7% versus the previous months' at 8%. This means that the Fed can now begin to slow down their interest rates hikes a bit (if this is in fact true). Consensus taken after the report came out shows that 80% of the analysts questioned believe that the next interest hike in December is likely to be only 50 points, where it was previous expected to be another 75 points. This number also opened the door for a soft landing recession rather that a strong one.

What does this all mean though? One article that I read over the weekend stated that this rally has been mostly short covering. In fact and in the article I read, it was stated clearly that one big and well known institutional fund that is normally a big buyer (a bull) of the market was absent on this rally, suggesting this in not a buying opportunity but a "getting out of the shorts" scenario.

There is one fact that cannot be dismissed and that is that the inflation problem is not going to go away any time soon, even though it may have peaked. It has been stated repeatedly that inflation is likely to remain way above the Fed target of 2% (or even 3%) for at least another 18 months or more. A recession is still a very high probability with the only question being whether it will be mild or strong. As such, there is no reason to believe this rally will continue much longer as this is not a growth outlook but a recovery outlook and even then, how much of a recovery is to be seen is the question.

In looking at the charts (daily, weekly and monthly), there is one clear thing being shown and that is that this market has been a bear market this year and that has not yet changed given that the fundamentals causing the bear trend have not changed. In any bear (or bull) market that has not had a fundamental change of importance, it has always been the case that the low (or high) of the trend needs to be retested successfully before any trend change can occur. This lack of a retest is clearly seen in all charts though it can be said that on the daily charts, all indexes have seen some form of successful retest. On the weekly charts, only the SPX and the NASDAQ can say that there is one week where the indexes went below a previous week's low, meaning that some form of minimal retest of the low has occurred. The DOW and RUT do not show any as of yet, though it does need to be stated that the RUT does show a double bottom, meaning that some established support is already there. Nonetheless that double bottom has not yet been retested. On the monthly chart, none of the indexes have yet shown even a minimal retest of the July lows and that is not likely to continue.

It must be stated that the DOW has been the clear leader of this rally and it is this index where attention is going to be placed this week and this month, given that it is the "only" index that is near a pivotal point on any of the charts. The DOW has the same pivotal intraweek resistance level on all charts at 34281. The index closed on Friday at 33741, meaning that any rally above Friday's close of over 540 points will break that pivotal resistance and that is at most "highly unlikely to happen. On a daily closing basis the resistance is at 34152, on a weekly closing basis it is at 33761 and on a monthly closing basis, it is at 32845. The monthly chart is not all that pivotal on a closing basis, as a close above 32845 would generate a buy signal but that level is not pivotal (just would suggest the bottom is set). On that same chart though, the 33843 level is pivotal as it would give a failure signal against the bears.

This all suggests that the DOW should not close above 34152 any day this week and should generate a red weekly close next Friday as it closed on Friday only 14 points below the pivotal weekly close resistance at 33761. As such, the probabilities of a negative reversal week occurring in the DOW this week are high. The other indexes are nowhere near any level as pivotal as the DOW is showing. Nonetheless, there are intraweek levels of resistance that should stop the other indexes. In the SPX that level is at 4177 but there is also resistance at 4119, which is not as strong. The NASDAQ should continue to be somewhat of a "weak sister" given all the negative earnings reports that came out. As such, the resistance at 12175 should stop the index rally. That is only 358 points above Friday's close.

There are no reports due out this week (or the next) that can be used as catalysts for the traders to manipulate for further upside. As such, the indexes should start to act more "chart normal" for the next 4 weeks. I do expect the beginning of the week to bring about further upside but by Wednesday (if not Tuesday), some new shorting and weakness should start to be seen. This week will be all about the DOW not going above 34281 and generating a red weekly close. Thereafter, the indexes should start heading lower until the next CPI report comes out on December 9th.


GOLD generated a failure signal against the bears on the weekly chart, having closed above the $1707 level (closed at $1773) that when broken caused Gold to drop down to $1618. On the daily chart, Gold gave a buy signal, having closed above the two previous high daily closes at $1730 and at $1735. Gold closed on the high of the week and further upside above last week's high at $1775 is expected to be seen this week. There is minor daily close resistance at $1794 and pivotal at $1805 (also found at the weekly closing chart), which if broken would open the door for a rally up to the $1870 level. Daily close support is now found at $1730/$1735, which if broken, would take momentum away from the bulls. Probabilities favor the bulls.

OIL generated a negative reversal week, having made a new 10-week intraweek high and then going below the previous week's low and closing red. Nonetheless, the red close (closed at 88.89) was slightly in the lower half of the week's trading range, meaning that there is a slightly higher chance of going below last week's low at 84.72 than above last week's high at 93.74. Oil did close in the upper half of Friday's trading range, meaning that the first course of business for the week is likely to be to the upside and above Friday's high at 90.09. The 90.19/90.39 level is pivotal "this" week, meaning that if the bulls can get above that level on Monday, it will swing the odds toward the bulls and further upside. The opposite is also true, if they cannot get above 90.39 on Monday, the bears will have the edge. Pivotal intraweek support is found at 82.09. Pivotal intraweek resistance is found at 97.66. The probabilities very slightly favor the bears this week. Nonetheless, it does not look like anything of great consequence is to happen this week.

DOLLAR gave a failure signal against the bulls this week, having closed below the previous 20-year high weekly close at 108.06 (closed at 106.29), which was the high made in July. The Dollar closed on the low of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 106.29 will be seen this week. Any confirmed daily close below 105.09 will further weaken the chart and generate further downside to the $104 or even the $101 level. Nonetheless, probabilities do not favor that at this time. Like with the index market, more proof that inflation is heading lower is needed before anything more concrete in favor of the bears occurs. Daily close resistance is now found at 108.54, suggesting that the Dollar is likely to go down just a bit more at the beginning of the week (perhaps down to 105.74) and then move back up to the 109.29 level (on an intraweek basis). Probabilities do favor it trading between 106.00 and 109.00 for the next 2-4 weeks.

BITCOIN made a new 24-month intraweek and weekly closing low and will be closing near (or on) the low of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low (so far) at 15603. The next support level below is at 11921 (on a weekly closing basis). On a weekly closing basis, resistance will now be found at 11917. This was both a fundamental and chart breakdown given that support from several banks that got involved in this crypto currency has begun to withdraw their support. In addition and on a chart basis, the 18978/19187 level had become not only pivotal support but indicative-of-believability support and that will require some strong fundamental changes to overcome this break. Probabilities favor the bears.


Stock Analysis/Evaluation
CHART Outlooks

I am still somewhat reluctant to give any mentions, especially with the craziness that has been seen recently, and more importantly the dichotomy seen between the indexes, which makes picking specific stocks and in specific industries more important than ever. Nonetheless, there is one stock that I have been trading for the past few months that I feel is a total sell, if and when it gets to the desired entry point this week. Under the best of circumstances, this stock is near a price that was a sell even previously (before the July lows were made) and now there are strong chart and fundamental reasons to believe it is a sell now.

SHOP Friday Closing Price - 39.44

SHOP has recovered 42.3% from the 43-month low at 23.63 seen 5 weeks ago. The stock has gone straight up without any retest of the low occurring and yet there has been no positive fundamental change that has occurred to support such a rally without a form of retest of the low to occur.

The high for SHOP for the past 6 months was at 45.23, which was made in August. This resistance area is further strengthened by the 200-day MA, which is currently at 44.56. It seems highly unlikely that the resistance and the MA line get broken without positive fundamental news or help from the index market, none of which is expected to occur.

SHOP spent almost 4 months (from May to August) trading around the $30 level and it seems highly likely that level will be seen again before any new attempt to breakout occurs.

The stock closed near the high of the week on Friday, suggesting further upside above Friday's high at 40.92 is expected to be seen. Evidently, the 200-day MA is a magnet, meaning that a rally up to around the 44.56 level is likely to occur. With the MA being an important line but then only on a daily closing basis, it is possible that the resistance at 45.23 may be seen. A stop loss can be placed at 45.35 but given the craziness of the market recently, it is possible that the stop loss orders may be targeted, meaning the stop loss should be mental. There is additional intraweek resistance at 48.80, which if broken would be a bull statement. As such, you can use at 48.90 hard stop loss if you wish.

With the downside target of SHOP being the $30 level, a sale between 44.59 and 45.23 and using at 48.90 stop loss would offer a 3.4-1 risk reward ratio. Nonetheless, the risk/reward ratio is much better than that, given that if the 45.23 resistance area does get broken and the stop loss orders targeted, if the stock does not immediately head lower, you can probably get out around the $46 level, meaning that the risk/reward ratio is more like 9-1. My rating on this trade is 3.75 (on a scale of 1-5 with 5 being the highest).

I will be watching the market closely this week and may have more mentions, even perhaps some buy mentions like for instance in stocks like VNET or ENG.

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Updates
Updates on Held Stocks
Closed Trades, Open Positions and Stop Loss Changes
AAPL did not follow through to the downside and generated an inside week but with a green close and on the high of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 150.01 will be seen this week. The green weekly close did strengthen the support found between 138.20 and 139.07 but otherwise, no new signals were given, meaning the bears remain with the edge. On a daily closing basis, there is resistance at 151.21 and stronger and pivotal at 155.74, which does include the 200-day MA, currently at 155.68. It is unlikely that without further breakout to the upside with the index market that the bulls will be able to get above the $155-$156 level and a fallback to the $139-$142 level is to be seen. Any intraweek rally above 157.50 will be a game changer. The intraweek daily chart suggests the stock will rally up to the 152.49 level and then begin a fallback down to the 138.55 level, given that there is an open gap at that price that is not supported by any new positive fundamental change. In fact, the opposite is true as the earnings reports and recent fundamental news suggest the stock maintaining weakness rather than gathering strength. Probabilities favor the bears for a red close at the end of the week.

AU generated a new 6-month intraweek high, a new 5-month daily closing high and a new 6-month weekly closing high. The stock closed on the high of the week and further upside above last week's high at 18.41 is expected to be seen this week. The stock is showing a runaway gap to the downside at 19.00 and a breakaway gap at 19.72. There is also an open gap on the weekly chart at 19.00. There was a fundamental change to the stock that does favor those gaps being closed, inasmuch as Bitcoin broke down, meaning that the inflation money is fleeing Bitcoin and going to Gold. The stock did generate a break of the 200-day MA, currently at 17.50 that if confirmed does mean the downtrend is over. The 200-week MA is currently at 19.94 and that is a clear target for this week given all that is involved. If broken, that would be a "game changer" for the midterm. Intraweek support should now be found at 17.00. If by any chance the stock gaps up on Monday above 19.00, a huge island formation will be possibly formed that if confirmed, would offer an upside target of 26.06. Probabilities favor the bulls. This is a stock that was as high as 38.50 just 14 months ago and at 11.94 just 8 weeks ago. The chart is clear here (more than anywhere else) and therefore bears watching (pun intended).

BABA generated a second green weekly close in a row and close near the high of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 72.70 is expected to be seen. Nothing of positive value has yet happened on the weekly chart but on the daily chart, the stock generated a second buy signal, having closed above the most recent high daily close at 69.71 on Friday (closed at 70.77). The action does suggest that a bottom, and a confirmation process of a bottom being in place, is occurring, though not enough has yet been done for that to be a high probability scenario yet. The stock has now rallied 20.3% from the lows on an intraweek basis but only 10% on a closing basis. A weekly close above 76.49 would have to be seen for a 20% trend change rally to occur. Minor intraweek resistance is found at 74.94 and a bit stronger and more pivotal at 78.64. For a failure signal against the bears to happen, a daily close above 76.76 would need to be seen. Nonetheless, a rally up to that level is now a decent probability. Pivotal daily close support is found at 64.84, which is also where Intraweek support is now found. Probabilities do favor the bulls this week but on a limited basis. The HSI index (Chinese market) has resistance at 18319, which is the level that when broken, took it down below 15,000. A close above that level would generate a failure signal against the bears. The index closed at 17325 on Friday and therefore there is a certain amount of probability that further upside of about 1000 points will be seen before new selling comes in. Probabilities favor the bulls this week.

CAT generated a new 17 month intraweek and weekly closing high and closed near the high of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 238.40 will be seen this week. The stock has shown both chart and fundamental strength but is now nearing its all-time intraweek high at 246.69 (241.08 on a monthly basis, 244.02 on a weekly closing basis and 244.79 on a daily closing basis) that seems highly unlikely to be broken in what is still a bear market. On a daily closing basis, there is now support at 229.84, short-term pivotal at 225.54, and then nothing until 214.54. None of these supports are anything other than minor. Decent daily close support is found between 197.02 and 198.88, which is further supported by the 200-day MA, currently at 198.90. In looking at all charts, including the monthly chart, a drop back down to the $200 level is a decent to high probability but the door remains open for a drop down to the $180 level.

ENG reported earnings and they were slightly less than was expected and the stock made a new 10-month intraweek and weekly closing low and closed in the lower half of the week's trading range, suggesting further downside below last week's low at .82 will be seen this week. Nonetheless and on a positive note, the company reported higher income than expected. This is a stock that has a book value of $.50 cents per share and normally stocks trade at least at 4-1 book value (meaning that this stock should be at least at $2 per share. Then again, some companies like AAPL and TSLA can have prices that are 50-100 times higher than its book value. This is a stock that over the past 15 years has had a pattern of trading low for a few months and then spiking up to anywhere from 8 to as much as 20-1 of its book value. It has done it at least 8 times over the past 15 years. Any daily close this week above .94 cents would generate a failure signal against the bears and any daily and/or weekly close above 1.06 would generate a new buy signal. Any intraweek break below .75 would generate further weakness. History suggests that the probabilities favor the bulls.

LI generated a 2nd green weekly close and closed near the high of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 19.41 will be seen this week. In the process, the stock confirmed the previous week's failure signal against the bears with another green weekly close above 18.26 on Friday. In addition and using the daily closing chart, a new buy signal was given when the stock closed above the previous high daily close at 18.47 with a close on Friday at 18.97. More importantly, the stock now also shows a successful retest of the low with a red daily close at 16.18 on Wednesday, followed with 2 green closes on Thursday and Friday. There is some minor intraweek resistance at 21.18 on the daily chart but on the weekly chart, there is no resistance until the 24.48 level is reached. Short-term intraweek support is now found at 16.09. Probabilities favor the bulls.

NEM made a new 3-month weekly closing high and closed on the high of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 46.92 will be seen this week. There is minor but short-term pivotal resistance on both the daily and the weekly closing chart at 46.55 that if broken would offer "open air" above to 52.35. The stock closed at 46.53 on Friday, meaning that any green close next Friday would likely mean that at least another $6 move higher would likely be seen. On a daily closing basis, support is now found at 44.40. Probabilities favor the bulls.

PLNHF made a new 4-week intraweek low but then rallied enough to close near the high of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 1.29 will be seen this week. If that occurs, last week's low at 1.11 will become the required/needed retest of the multi-year low at 1.03 that was made in September. An intraweek rally above 1.40 will open the door for a rally up to the 1.74 level and it would also mean that a bottom formation has been built and retested successfully. For the past 6 weeks this stock has traded mostly sideways with weekly closes at 1.26, 1.19, 1.22, 1.18, 1.24 and Friday at 1.23. It seems highly likely that something will happen this week. Probabilities favor the bulls.

QQQ generated a new 8-week intraweek and weekly closing high and closed on the high of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 288.64 will be seen this week. The stock has been straddling the 200-week MA, currently at 275.91, with 4 closes below the line, 2 closes above the line and 1 close at the line over the past 7 weeks. The does not show a successful retest of the July low at 254.26 with the previous week's low at 259.08 and now followed by a new multi-week high, meaning that it is now probable that a bottom to the downtrend has been found. As such, the probabilities now favor the bulls. Nonetheless, I do mention the straddling of the MA line that was seen because it suggests that at the very minimum, a retest of that line will occur before much higher prices are seen (if they are to be seen). There is intraweek resistance at 295.05 and again at 296.58 that has a good chance of holding up and from there the retest occur. There is an open gap at 268.56 that is not supported by fundamentals that should be closed. As such, upon reaching that level, consideration can be given to taking profits and exiting the short position. Probabilities favor the bulls this week but just slightly.

VET reported earnings and revenue beat expectations by 26% but EPS dropped 8.7% and the stock fell 21.3% immediately thereafter. The stock generated a sell signal on the daily closing chart but then recovered enough the next day to negate the sell signal and on the weekly closing chart nothing of consequence occurred. Nonetheless, the stock did break the 200-day MA, currently at 21.52 and closed on Friday below the line (closed at 21.31) and therefore Monday's close is pivotal. A red close on Monday below Thursday's close at 20.45, would confirm the break of the line and give the bears new ammunition for a drop down to the $19. A green close on Monday above 21.52 would do the exact opposite and suggest a rally back up to the $24 level would then occur. The stock did close in the lower half of the week's trading range, meaning that the probabilities slightly favor the bears.

VNET had an uneventful week, having closed just $.13 cents below the previous week's close. The stock closed near the high of the week and further upside above last week's high at 5.85 is expected to be seen. The stock is presently awaiting news on the takeover offer so there is little that can be said about the chart at this time. Midterm pivotal resistance is at 6.43, which if broken would make the $8 level the objective. Intraweek support should now be found at 5.27. I should mention that in reading some analysts fundamental projections, they are quite bullish on the stock and do give as a potential upside objective the $15 level. Probabilities favor the bulls.

ZLAB has recovered 45.3% in value over the past 2 weeks and 37.2% based on the weekly close, which is a strong signal that the intraweek 20.98 low (23.75 on a weekly closing basis) made 3 weeks ago is now a bottom to this recent downtrend, which was caused by the weakness in the Chinese market. The close on Friday at 37.76 not only generated a failure signal against the bears but also generated a break of minor to decent weekly close resistance at 36.79. In addition, several buy signals were given on the daily chart, as well as generated a successful retest of the low daily close at 22.28 with a low daily close on Wednesday at 28.57, followed by two green closes thereafter. The stock closed near the high of the week and further upside above last week's high at 38.31 is expected to be seen this week. Immediately and at the beginning of the week, the bulls will have to face their first tangible resistance level in the form of the 200-day MA, currently at 39.23. A confirmed close above the line would give the bulls new ammunition for further recovery and a target of the $50 level. The 28.57 level, based on a daily close is now pivotal support that should no longer be broken. The 200-day MA has only been broken once over the past 14 months. It was broken on September 6th and the stock stayed above the line for 2 weeks before breaking below it once again. Evidently much is riding on what the Chinese market is going to do but the chart of the HSI index does suggest further upside of about 1000 points is yet to come, even within a bear market. Probabilities favor the bulls.


1) SNDL - Averaged long at 9.05 (2 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 2.60.

2) SRUTF - Averaged long at .0738 (3 mentions). No stop loss at moment. Stock closed on Friday at .0132. .

3) BTZI - Averaged long at .0935 (4 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at .01. .

4) ZLAB - Averaged long at 71.955 (6 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 30.93.

5) AU - Averaged long at 26.184 (4 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 17.98.

6) BABA - Purchased at 89.86. No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 70.77.

7) NEM - Averaged long at 61.492 (5 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 46.53.

8) ENG - Averaged long at 3.378 (5 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at .94.

9) VNET - Averaged long at 5.32 (2 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 5.61.

10) AAPL - Averaged short at 147.90 (2 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 149.70.

11) CAT - Averaged short at 202.826 (3 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 236.49.

12) LI - Averaged long at 31.942 (4 mentions. No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 18.97.

13) QQQ - Shorted at 282.51. Stop loss at 284.35. Stock closed on Friday at 287.96.

14) VET - Purchased at 20.38. Stop loss at 19.65. Stock closed on Friday at 21.31.

15) IBM - Shorted at 138.57. Covered shorts at 141.23. Loss on the trade of $266 (per 100 shares).


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Disclaimer

The opinions and commentaries by Mr. De Vito are not a recommendation to buy or sell, but rather a charting guideline, based on his own knowledge and experience, regarding the stocks he is following or that are brought to him by others. Mr. De Vito does not presently offer a track record of his trading experiences. No inference of success and/or failure should be assumed. The information enclosed above, regarding his background, length of trading, and experience, is correct but is not meant to suggest, state, or infer any future success in trading, based on his opinions.

The information herewith included should only be used by investors who are aware of the risk inherent in securities trading. Mr. De Vito accepts no liability whatsoever for any loss arising from any use of the information and/or comments he supplies.




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