Issue #788
October 30, 2022 , 2022 | Newsletter
The newsletter with chart analysis for stocks and stock indexes |
Stock Indexes Analysis/Evaluation
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| Bulls Manage to turn the Table on the Bears. NFLX was the Catalyst.
DOW Friday closing price - 32861
The indexes generated further upside this week, meaning that the DOW has now recovered 12.6% from the September lows. The October rally seen so far has far exceeded the average rally seen in October, which is normally about .9%. One of the main reasons for the strong rally this past week (DOW rallied 5.5%) is that the GDP number came in better than expected (2.6% vs the expected 2.3%). Keeping in mind that the previous 2 months the GPD had been a negative number, the bulls jumped on board on the hopes that the economy is bouncing back and that the recession that most are calling for, will not occur, or will be mild.
The earnings reports came out mixed this week with the service and Tech industry showing negative numbers (AMZN, GOOGL and META). Nonetheless, on the other side of the coin, companies dealing directly with the economy (such as CAT), showing much better than expected results. This created a big dichotomy with the NASDAQ moving up 2.1% and the DOW moving up 5.5%.
The seasonal pattern is for the stock market to move up on all 3 of the end of the year months (October, November and December) and so far, the market has followed the pattern religiously. Nonetheless, this year things are very unclear given that this rally seen so far has exceeded any other one-month rally since 1987 and additionally, the world market has not participated like the U.S. market has. To finish it off, the Chinese market has done the exactly opposite, given that it fell 17.3% in October. All of these dichotomies make it very difficult to establish any clear outlook for November.
Evidently and based on what happened this week, this coming week's economic reports are going to be quite important. On Monday, the ISM Index report comes out at 10:00am. Expectation is for a 50% number. Last month, it came in at 50.9% and therefore it is due to come out lower. The 50% will not suggest anything special is happening given that is an even number between growth and contraction. A higher number though, will support what the traders have been speculating on, meaning growth. A lower number will do the opposite and suggest that the speculation of growth is unfounded. On Wednesday, the Fed reports its rate decision and it is anticipated to be another 75 points. It is highly anticipated that number will be exactly as expected and therefore unlikely to have much of an effect. Nonetheless, Powell's conference call immediately thereafter may show what they believe last month's numbers actually mean and could generate some speculation. As such, the conference call is likely to be more important than the announcement of the number. On Friday, the Jobs report comes out. That is generally a catalytic report and mostly has been catalytic to the upside. It is not expected that there will be any great change in the number over what has been seen the past few months. Nonetheless, it is due to come in lower than last month's number at 262k (expected at 243k) and that is already slightly negative. If it comes in lower, it will be a possible balloon deflator. The inflation report that comes out on Thursday, November 10th, could be a big catalyst for the market for the entire month. A number higher or lower than anticipated, would cause big speculation on what the Fed would do in December (lower the Fed rate, keep it the same, or raise it) and therefore put the seasonal tendency to rally to either be confirmed or negated. As such, November 10th is the key day for this month.
As far as the charts are concerned, the DOW is the key right now, given that it has been the leader this month and is the only index close to pivotal chart support and resistance levels. The index is now close to a pivotal intraweek and weekly closing level at 34281 and 33761 respectively. With the index closing on Friday at 32861 and having rallied 1728 points this past week, these levels are reachable this coming week as the intraweek resistance is only 1031 points higher. If those levels are broken, the chart will turn bullish. There is one intraweek resistance level at 33248 (387 points above Friday's high) that should be reached this week, which if broken, would give the bulls an additional edge. If reached (but not broken) it would tend to favor the bears. The 200-day MA, currently at 33643, is also quite important this week. The index closed above it on Friday and therefore, it is now considered support. A confirmed close below that level would tend to be a balloon deflator.
There is not enough tangible information at this time to give any kind of probability rating. As it is, the rally this past week was somewhat unexpected given that the earnings reports on the "big 5" companies all disappointed, but the market rallied nonetheless. In many ways, the outlook from here on out for the rest of the year is sitting on a "flip of a coin". The first 3 weeks of the earnings quarter are now over and attention will shift to the economic reports which are even more difficult to predict.
OIL went above the previous week's high, meaning that the previous week's low at 81.30 has now become a successful retest of the multi-month low at 75.70. This now has opened the door for a new support base having been built and from which a recovery rally of some consequence might occur. For that to happen though, Oil would need to get above the pivotal intraweek resistance at 92.34, If that occurs, a bottom will have been built and confirmed and the traders will begin looking for upside objectives. Oil did close in the upper half of the week's trading range and further upside above last week's high at 89.79 is expected to be seen this week. Pivotal support is now found at 81.30. The upside objective should all of the above occur, could be as high as 104.80. Nonetheless, the is decent intraweek resistance at the 95.55/96.15 area that is likely to stop Oil the first time around. Probabilities now favor the bulls.
DOLLAR generated a new 5-week intraweek low and a new 6-week weekly closing low. It did close in the lower half of the week's trading range, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 109.54 will be seen this week. The Dollar did generate a sell signal on the daily closing chart on Wednesday but did negate the sell signal on Thursday and confirmed the negation on Friday. On a weekly closing basis, support is located at 109.56, which if broken, would mean a top to the rally has been found. It does seem that for the next week or two, the Dollar will trade between 109.29 and 112.12 and the uptrend will depend on the inflation figures say on November 10th and the action the Fed deems to be necessary to do after that.
BITCOIN made a new 7-week intraweek high and in the process, generated a new buy signal on the daily closing chart when it closed above 20340, which had been the daily high close for the previous 6 weeks. The buy signal was confirmed on Tuesday with a close at 20303, which was followed by 3 higher closes on Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday. Nonetheless, the buy signal has not yet been confirmed on the weekly chart, meaning that for now, Bitcoin is not falling any more but the traders are awaiting further fundamental news on inflation and the Fed rate before making any new moves. A weekly close above 21640 would confirm the buy signal on the daily chart and give the bulls a short-term upside target of 24425. Any daily close below 18476, or a weekly close below 18935 would give control back to the bears. Probabilities slightly favor the bulls this week.
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Stock Analysis/Evaluation
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CHART Outlooks
With the dichotomy being seen with the earnings reports this past week, the outlook remains unclear. This week the two most important economic reports come out and that could begin to clarify the outlook. Nonetheless, the probabilities do not favor any big changes in the reports, suggesting that the traders will likely wait until Thursday, November 10th, when the monthly inflation report comes out, to make any decisions. As such, once again there are no new mentions this week.
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Updates
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| Updates on Held Stocks |
Closed Trades, Open Positions and Stop Loss Changes |
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AAPL reported earnings this week and they were mixed with a slight beat on earnings ($1.29 vs expected $1.27) but the outlook disappointed as it was worse than expected. The stock was due to open about 4% lower but opened higher and gained 8.3% on the day. The stock closed near the high of the day and further upside above last week's high at 157.50 is expected to be seen this week. The stock did break a minor to decent weekly close resistance at 154.79, which if confirmed this week with another green close, will open the door for a rally up to the 162.34 level. The 200-day MA is currently at 156.74 and that line is likely to be pivotal this week. Pivotal daily close support is now found at the $150 demilitarized zone. Any confirmed daily close below 149.70 would deflate the rally and likely generate a drop down to the $145 area. AU generated a 2nd green weekly close and did close near the high of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 13.73 will be seen this week. Nonetheless and in spite of the green weekly close, the bulls have not yet been unable to make any kind of a bull statement, meaning the chart remains somewhat open for both sides. On the other side of the coin, the second green weekly close does confirm that the recent low weekly close at 12.38 was a successful retest of the 12.16 multi-year weekly low close, meaning that the probabilities of a bottom and a support area have been built has now increased. An intraweek break above 15.35 or a weekly close above 14.44 would confirm that scenario. A daily close below 12.38 would negate it. BABA made a new 7-year intraweek low and got within $.81 cents of the all-time low at 57.20. Nonetheless, the bulls were able to rally the stock up back to within $.16 cents of the midpoint of the weekly range, suggesting an equal opportunity of going above last weeks' high at 69.80 than below last week's low at 58.01. This is all about the re-election of Xi to be the president of the country and the negatives of his policies, especially the zero Covid policy. There has been no negative news on the company itself, meaning that the short-term outlook depends on the fundamental picture of the nation and not of the company. Evidently, a break below 57.20 would open the door for much more downside. Short-term pivotal resistance is found at 86.29. CAT reported better than expected earnings and rallied 13.3% percent above the previous week's close. The stock closed on the high of the week and further upside above last week's high at 219.34 is expected to be seen. On the weekly closing chart, there are 14-months of decent to probably strong resistance found between 217.26 and 228.94 that includes a double high at 228.94 and 227.91. In addition, JPM had put out an upgrade to the stock a few weeks ago that gave a $220 objective, which can now be said has been fulfilled. It is highly unlikely that any additional upside of any consequence will be seen at this level at this time. On a weekly closing basis, there is minor to perhaps decent support at 197.82, which if broken would open the door for a drop down to the $180 level. The 200-day MA is currently at 198.62 and given that line had not been broken to the upside for close to 5 months, the probabilities strongly favor that line being tested before any new attempt to go higher is tried. On a daily closing basis, there is resistance between 219.95 and 222.38, suggesting that the bears are likely to have a much better risk/reward ratio at this price. ENG did very little this past week. It did go above the previous week's high and did close green but the green close was only by $.01 cent and the stock did close slightly in the lower half of the week's trading range, suggesting a slightly higher probability of going below last week's low at .96 than above last week's high at 1.14. The company reports earnings on Thursday November 3rd. Intraweek support is found at .91. Minor but likely short-term pivotal resistance is found at 1.16 and pivotal resistance is found at 1.45. LI made a new all-time intraweek, daily and weekly closing low and closed slightly in the lower half of the week's trading range, suggesting a higher probability of going below last week's low at 12.52 than above last week's high. The all-time daily closing low was 14.31 and the stock closed at 14.26 on Friday, meaning that if the bulls are able to generate a green daily close on Monday, it will be seen as a potential double bottom on the daily chart. On the weekly chart, the previous all-time close at 14.60, and there too, if the bulls are able to generate a green weekly close next Friday above 14.60, it too would be seen as a potential double bottom. It is important to note that TSLA reported slightly better than expected earnings and because of it, it generated a positive reversal week, having made a new 15-month low and then going above the previous week's high and closing near the high of the week. I say this, because LI is in the same industry and even though the stock has fallen mostly because of the political situation in China, it is possible that if Chinese stocks do not continue lower that the stock will move higher and negate the negative signal given. Short-term pivotal support is found at 16.57. The 6-month intraweek low and a new 24-month weekly closing low and closed in the lower half of the week's trading range, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 16.54 will be seen this week. Nonetheless, some buying interest started to be found given that the stock made the new low on Wednesday, generated an inside day but with a green close on Thursday, and then generated a positive reversal day on Friday. This action means that on Friday, it went below Thursday's low and closed above Thursday's high, thus opening the door for a successful retest of the low having been accomplished. To confirm this retest as successful, a rally above 21.18 would need to be seen. Nonetheless, it is a sign that perhaps the bottom has either been found or is close by. Intraweek support of consequence is found at 15.98. This is a Chinese stock that the same as stated for BABA applies here. NEM had the same kind of week that AU had with the same identical meaning. The stock did close slightly in the upper half of the week's trading range, suggesting a slightly higher probability of going above last week's high at 44.25 than below last week's low at 41.52. It is important to note that on the daily chart, a short-term bullish inverted Head and Shoulders formation has been built with the right shoulder being at 45.23. A break of that level would generate an objective of 50.46. The stock does have a bearish breakaway/runaway gap formation with the runaway gap being at 50.86, meaning that if a rally does occur up to the 50.46 level (now looking more probable than not), it would not be a longer term bullish sign. As such, and considering that for now it is unlikely that the index market will be making new lows, the probability is high that the stock will see this recovery rally occur. Any break below the recent low at 40.00 would negate this scenario. PLNHF generated a 3rd uneventful inside week that did nothing to clarify the chart. The stock did close red and on the low of the week, suggesting that further downside below last week's low at 1.17 will be seen this week. Nonetheless, if that does occur but the recent low at 1.03 is not broken, it could become the needed/required retest of the low that could signal that a bottom has been built to this downtrend. Short-term pivotal resistance is found at 1.36. QQQ generated a new 5-week intraweek and weekly closing high and did close near the high of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 284.60 will be seen this week. Additionally, the stock generated a 2nd close above the 200-week MA, currently at 274.73, and that is a positive, which suggests that for now, the downside is over (until the fundamental picture changes). Intraweek resistance is found at last week's high, which if broken, would suggest a rally to 296.75 would be seen. Presently, some short-term pivotal intraweek support is found at 266.82. VET generated a negative reversal week, having made a new 3-week high but then closing red and near the low of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 21.85 will be seen this week. By the same token and using the weekly closing chart, it really was an uneventful week given that the stock closed red by only $.02 cents below the previous week's close and that means nothing. Daily close support is found at 22.01 and daily close resistance at 22.80. A break of the former would suggest a drop down to 21.13 would occur, while a break of the latter, would suggest that a rally to 25.02 would occur. VNET made a new 62-month low weekly close and closed in the lower half of the week's trading range, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 4.07 will be seen this week. The all-time low weekly close is at 4.37 and the stock closed at 4.44 on Friday. The action seen the past couple of weeks turned the outlook in favor of the bears and against the bulls. The island formation remains in place with the gap down at 3.95, but it is evident that this week is going to be a deciding week. Pivotal short-term resistance is at 4.97 and the same to the downside at 4.07. It is likely this week, one or the other will be decided. Nonetheless, the bears have a decided edge. ZLAB made a new 48-month intraweek and weekly closing low and closed in the lower half of the week's trading range, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 20.98 will be seen this week. This weakness has all been about the Chinese political situation as the company maintains a strong fundamental picture. Nonetheless, at this time the bears have control. Short-term pivotal resistance is found at 25.87 and given that the stock closed on Friday near the high of the day, the first course of business for the week on Monday should be for some upward movement. On a weekly closing basis, the 26.61 level was the support that got broken this past week. A close above that level on Friday, would negate the break. It all depends on what happens tonight on the Chinese HSI index. If it rallies to close green tomorrow morning at 4:00 am, it is likely all Chinese stocks will rally. Either way, I am looking to hold on to the positions as the outlook for the future of the company remains bright.
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1) SNDL - Averaged long at 9.05 (2 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 2.29 2) SRUTF - Averaged long at .0738 (3 mentions). No stop loss at moment. Stock closed on Friday at .01315 . 3) BTZI - Averaged long at .0935 (4 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at .0102 . 4) ZLAB - Averaged long at 71.955 (6 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 23.75. 5) AU - Averaged long at 26.184 (4 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 13.49. 6) BABA - Purchased at 89.86. No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 63.74. 7) NEM - Averaged long at 61.492 (5 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 42.86. 8) ENG - Averaged long at 3.378 (5 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 1.02. 9) VNET - Averaged long at 5.32 (2 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 4.44. 10) AAPL - Averaged short at 147.90 (2 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 155.74. 11) CAT - Shorted at 198.88. Averaged short at 202.826 (3 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 219.34. 12) LI - Averaged long at 31.942 (4 mentions. No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 18.72. 13) SHOP - Liquidated at 28.76. Averaged short at 29.575. Profit on the trade of $162 per 100 shares (2 mentions). 14) QQQ - Shorted at 282.51. Stop loss at 284.35. Stock closed on Friday at 275.42. 15) VET - Purchased at 20.38. Stop loss at 19.65. Stock closed on Friday at 22.53. 16) SHOP - Shorted at 30.74. Covered shorts at 31.97. Loss on the trade of $125 per 100 shares.
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The opinions and commentaries by Mr. De Vito are not a recommendation to buy or sell, but rather
a charting guideline, based on his own knowledge and experience, regarding the stocks he is following or
that are brought to him by others. Mr. De Vito does not presently offer a track record of his trading experiences.
No inference of success and/or failure should be assumed. The
information enclosed above, regarding his background, length of trading, and experience, is correct
but is not meant to suggest, state, or infer any future success in trading, based on his opinions. The information herewith included should only be used by investors who are aware of the risk inherent in securities trading. Mr. De Vito accepts no liability whatsoever for any loss arising from any use of the information and/or comments he supplies. |
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