Issue #793
December 11, 2022 , 2022
The Oasis

Newsletter


The newsletter with chart analysis for stocks and stock indexes

Stock Indexes Analysis/Evaluation


Traders Await Inflation Report and Fed Rate Decision!

DOW Friday closing price - 33476
SPX Friday closing price - 3934
NASDAQ Friday closing price - 11563
RUT Friday closing price - 1796

The indexes generated red weekly closes across the board and closed on or near the lows of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's lows will be seen this week (DOW below 33418, SPX below 3918, NAZ below 11431, and RUT below 1796). The action this past week was disappointing to the bulls given that it was expected that the indexes would go above the previous week's highs but didn't, in spite of the fact that there was no negative fundamental catalyst that prevented that from occurring. Additionally, the RUT outperformed the other indexes to the downside, having given up 5.1% in value, while the SPX fell 3.4%, the NASDAQ fell 3.6% and the DOW fell the least at 2.8%. The dichotomy continues to show that inflation does remain the main driver to the downside.

The PPI number came out on Friday and did show that inflation was not ebbing as expected, given that it came in higher at .4% versus the expected .2%. This number (PPI) is not as telling as the CPI number that will come out on Tuesday of this week, but it did keep the indexes down and closing on the lows.

The indexes all made either a new 3 or 4 week intraweek lows and new 4 or 5 week weekly closing lows, which did generate sell signals across the board. Additionally, the DOW generated a failure signal against the bulls on Friday, having closed below the previous high weekly close seen in August at 33761. These signals will need to be confirmed this week in order to be valid and effective. The CPI inflation report comes out Tuesday morning and the Fed rate decision comes out on Wednesday and it is evident that those reports will either confirm or negate the signals given this week. By the same token, the action seen suggests that the reports will have to be better than expected in order to negate what happened on Friday.

Using the daily closing chart, there are some levels of importance that the bulls need to hold above and the bears need to break. In the SPX the 3901 level is pivotal. In the NASDAQ the 11503 level is pivotal. Any confirmed daily close below those levels any two-days-in-a-row this week will give the bears ammunition to take the indexes lower and likely for a retest of the July lows.

There is no other comment I can give at this time. This week it is about the fundamental picture. It is the bulls who need better-than-expected news in order to prevent further downside from occurring.


GOLD generated a new 22-week intraweek and closed near the high of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at $1822 will be seen this week. The bears had the opportunity to negate the breakout seen the previous week when Gold closed above the short-term pivotal weekly close resistance at $1805, having traded below that level every day of the week starting at 4:00 pm on Monday. Nonetheless, on Friday (after the PPI number came out showing inflation was not ebbing), the bulls got above $1805 by 10:45 am and stayed above that level the rest of day, ending up closing at $1809.40 and only $.20 cents below the previous week's close at $1809.60. Evidently, the inflation report and Fed rate decision this week will be pivotal for Gold. Nonetheless, the bulls do have a clear edge now and the probabilities do favor them. Any daily close below $1781 would now be a decent negative. Upside objective on an intraweek basis is $1834 but if broken, the bulls would target the $1880 area as the next objective.

OIL generated a new 53-week intraweek and weekly closing low and closed near the low of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 70.11 will be seen this week. There is no intraweek support below until 66.06 (minor) is reached. Decent intraweek support is found between 62.43 and 61.74. Nonetheless and on both the daily and weekly closing charts there is support at 66.26. Based on the sell signals, the failure signals (breaking of previous high daily and weekly closes) and the lack of fundamental support at this time, it seems likely that the $66 level is the downside objective. As far as resistance is concerned, the 76.26 level (on a daily closing basis) is now where selling interest will be seen, meaning that probabilities now favor Oil trading between $66 and $76 for the rest of the month. It is doubtful that the CPI number and the Fed rate decision this week will make much of a difference to Oil.

DOLLAR generated an uneventful inside week as well as a close in the middle of the week's trading range, meaning equal chances of going above last week's high at 105.79 than below last week's low at 104.06. In addition, the Dollar closed last week below a previous high weekly close support level at 104.62 by $.12 cents but closed above that level this week by $.15 cents, meaning the failure signal was not confirmed but neither was it clearly negated this week. It is clearly evident that the CPI number and the Fed Rate decision the day after will be the decisive factor on what the Dollar does this week. Weekly close support from previous high weekly closes is found between 102.82 and 103.01 and previous low weekly close support is found at 101.67. To the upside, some minor but likely short-term weekly close resistance is found at 106.93 and stronger at 108.06. As the chart stands right now, probabilities favor the Dollar trading between 103.01 and 106.93 (based on weekly closes) for the rest of the year.


Stock Analysis/Evaluation
CHART Outlooks

There are no mentions at this time. The economic reports this week are likely to be catalytic and there is no way to anticipate how they will come out and how the traders will react to them. In addition, December is usually a "dead in the water" month, meaning that putting on positions at this time is not likely to offer any profits for the rest of the month. If something of consequence is seen after the reports come out, I will make mentions on the message board. At this time, I do not see anything that needs to be done the rest of the month.

<
Updates
Updates on Held Stocks
Closed Trades, Open Positions and Stop Loss Changes

AAPL generated a negative reversal week, having gone above the previous week's high and then below the previous week's low and closed in the red and near the low of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 140.00 will be seen this week. The downside target on an intraweek basis is 137.69 (138.20 on a daily closing basis). If reached, consideration to taking profits can be given. Further downside below that level will require additional negative data. Minor resistance is found at 145.57 and slightly stronger at 147.54.

AU generated a negative reversal week, having made a new 7-month intraweek high and then closing red and on the low of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 18.39 will be seen this week. The bulls did accomplish closing the downside gap on the weekly chart from May at 19.00 but the breakaway gap on the daily chart at 19.72 was not closed, though the runaway gap at 19.00 was. This does leave the door still open for a rally up to the 200-week MA, currently at 20.04. The negative reversal though, does mean that selling interest at these level is being found, suggesting that rallies above the $20 level are going to require new positive fundamental news to accomplish. Intraweek support is now found at 17.78, which is likely to be seen this week and probably on Monday. Consideration should be given to liquidating the positions on any rally above 19.71.

BABA generated a new 12-week intraweek and weekly closing high and closed in the upper half of the week's trading range, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 94.34 will be seen this week. Nonetheless, the stock did get up to (and slightly above) the 200-day MA, currently at 92.53, with the 94.17 high daily close on Thursday and did confirm that high as a successful retest of the line, having closed on Friday at 91.34. There is an open gap down at 89.26 that is likely to be targeted for closure on Monday but once that is done, one more try to the upside to break the MA is likely to be seen. By the same token, this whole area and up to the $98 level is considered to be a resistance area that requires further positive news to break above and that is unlikely to happen this month. As such, the stock has reached a level where consideration to liquidation of the positions should be given. Hopefully above last week's high.

CAT generated a new 3-week intraweek low and a new 5-week weekly closing low. The stock closed near the low of the week and further downside below last week's low at 225.56 is expected to be seen. In addition, the stock sell signals on both the daily and weekly closing chart, as well as a failure signal against the bulls on the weekly closing chart, having closed below a previous 16-month weekly closing high at 228.94 (closed on Friday at 227.29). There is pivotal intraweek support at 225.06 that if broken would find open air below to 213.56. By the same token, the stock shows a runaway gap at 221.79 that if not closed, could help the bulls generate a rally back up to the 232.35 level. Evidently, the news this week on Tuesday and Wednesday, which will affect the index market, will help the traders decide what to do. By the same token, closure of the runaway gap would make the breakaway gap down at 199.58 a target, especially considering that the 200-day MA, currently at 202.17, has not yet been tested after having been broken to the upside in October, after having traded below the line for the previous 4 months before that. A retest of that line does seem to be a high probability event if and when no new positive fundamental news comes out.

ENG generated a red weekly close and a close near the low of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at .854 will be seen this week. Nonetheless, the bulls were able to maintain the stock above the pivotal weekly's close support level at .865 (closed at .883) and that likely means that this week, the required/needed retest of the recent intra-month 10-month low at .78 will occur. The bulls do need to go below last week's low but then close green at the end of the week, in order for the week to become a successful retest of both the intraweek and weekly closing lows. Intraweek support is found at .82 and that is likely to be the downside objective for this week. If that occurs and then the stock gets above .926, the chart will be fulfilled to the downside and some new buying, as well as short-covering is likely to be seen.

LI generated a negative reversal week, having made a new 9-week intraweek week high but then closing red and on the low of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 20.96 will be seen this week. Intraweek support is found at 18.83, which is likely to be reached but not likely to be broken. There is a gap between 17.84 and 20.11 that will play an important part this week. If the gap is not closed, the gap down seen on Friday between 23.62 and 22.77 will be targeted for closure. Nonetheless, the gap down was created by a worse than expected earnings report that does support the gap, meaning that the action this week is likely to be pivotal for the short-term. As it is, the minimum upside target of this recent rally was the $24 level and the stock did get up to 24.20 this past week, meaning that the bulls do require index help to generate any further upside. As such, consideration should be given to liquidating positions on any rally back up close to the $24 level. On the positive side, it was not expected that the earnings report would be better than expected, meaning the earnings report miss is not yet a big deal.

NEM generated an inside week but did close red and on the low of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 46.38 will be seen this week. The breakout level from the 4-month weakness period was 46.41 (based on the daily closing chart) and the stock closed on Friday at 46.40, meaning that if the stock closes green on Monday, it will mean that a successful retest of the breakout level has been accomplished. Such action is likely to give further ammunition to the bulls for further upside to occur. A daily close below 44.32 would give a new sell signal and negate the breakout. A daily close above 48.67 would open the door for a rally up to the $52 level and perhaps even up to the 200-week MA, currently at 57.03.

PLNHF unexpectedly (no news) generated negative reversal week, having made a new 9-week intraweek high but then reversed and closed below the previous week's low and on the low of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 1.13 will be seen this week. A new sell signal was given on the weekly closing chart but not on the daily closing chart, meaning that the stock might recover this week. Nonetheless, for any recovery to occur, the 1.12-1.15 level needs to hold up on a daily closing basis. The stock closed at 1.14 on Thursday and at 1.15 on Friday and that means that a green daily close needs to occur from the get go on Monday. The only possible reason for the unexpected sell off is that on a daily closing basis there is decent resistance at 1.55 and with the stock closing at 1.50 on Monday and then seeing a red close on Tuesday, the traders bailed out of the rally. This does suggest that the stock may trade between 1.12 and 1.50 for the rest of the month, awaiting further news on the company or on the Cannabis industry.

QQQ generated a red week and did make a new 4-week intraweek and weekly closing low. The stock closed near the low of the week and further downside below last week's low at 278.78 is expected to be seen. The stock did get back down to the 200-week MA, currently at 278.31 and that line will be an important pivot point this week, given the important economic reports (CPI and Fed rate decision) due out this week. Evidently a close next Friday below the MA line will bring in new selling interest, while a close above the line would likely do the opposite. In the last 11-weeks, the stock has closed below the line 4 times and above the line 7 times, yet none of the closes has been clearly indicative. On an intraweek basis, last week's low is short-term pivotal, given that if broken, there is no support below until 269.28 is reached. There is an open gap down at 268.56 that will be a magnet for closure (or retest of it), meaning that a break below 278.78 should generate at least a drop down to the 269.28 level. Some resistance is found above at 284.60 and at 289.46.

SHOP generated a red week and a close near the low of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 36.56 will be seen this week. The red week and lack of follow through to the upside (as expected was going to happen) has created a double high at 45.43/45.06 that will give additional ammunition to the bears, if and when no new positive news comes out. The stop loss can now be lowered to 45.53 as a break above that double high will be indicative of strength. Short-term pivotal support is found at 34.38, which if broken would likely take the stock down to the mention's objective at $30. Intraweek resistance is now found at 41.73.

VET generated a new 5-month intraweek low and closed on the low of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 17.04 is expected to be seen this week. The 10-month intraweek low is found at 16.60, which if broken would open the door for a drop down to 200-week MA, currently at 13.43. All of the weekly close supports have now been broken but there is still one decent daily close support at 17.01. With the stock closing on Friday at 17.06, the bulls need to generate a green daily close on Monday. Unfortunately, the Oil chart suggests further downside is to be seen, meaning that the probabilities favor the bears creating a decisive break.

VNET continued to trade in a sideway fashion as the traders await news on the proposed merger. The stock did generate a green weekly close on Friday, as well as a close in the upper half of the week's trading range, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 5.54 will be seen this week. Nonetheless, the stock remains in a trading limbo as the traders await the outcome of the proposed merger at $8 a share. For now, the chart does not favor either side as it seems to be in a trading range between 4.50 and 6.00. Midterm pivotal resistance is at 6.43, which if broken would make the $8 level the objective.

ZLAB generated an uneventful inside week and closed in the middle of the week's trading range, suggesting equal chances of going above last week's high at 38.94 or below last week's low at 31.73. The reality is that the stock outperformed the other Chinese stocks this week, suggesting there is still inherent strength in the present price. The stock has now gotten up to the 200-day MA, currently at 37.49, on 6 occasions over the past 4 months and it seems that the line is "ripe" for getting broken as the bears repeated fail to make a statement to the downside when the line is reached. A break above 40.17 would be a bull statement at this time. By the same token, a break below 30.37 would be a bear statement at this time. With the stock having closed on Friday at 35.40 (slightly above the middle of those two prices), the probabilities slightly favor the bulls.


1) SNDL - Averaged long at 9.05 (2 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 2.50

2) SRUTF - Averaged long at .0738 (3 mentions). No stop loss at moment. Stock closed on Friday at .007. .

3) BTZI - Averaged long at .0935 (4 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at .0067. .

4) ZLAB - Averaged long at 71.955 (6 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 35.40.

5) AU - Averaged long at 26.184 (4 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 18.48.

6) BABA - Purchased at 89.86. No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 91.34.

7) NEM - Averaged long at 61.492 (5 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 46.40.

8) ENG - Averaged long at 3.378 (5 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at .883.

9) VNET - Averaged long at 5.32 (2 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 5.17.

10) AAPL - Averaged short at 147.90 (2 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 142.16.

11) CAT - Averaged short at 211.9675 (4 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 227.29.

12) LI - Averaged long at 31.942 (4 mentions. No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 21.12.

13) QQQ - Shorted at 282.51. Stop loss at 284.35. Stock closed on Friday at 282.04

14) VET - Purchased at 20.38. No Stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 17.06

15) SHOP - Shorted at 44.97. Stop loss is at 45.53. Stock closed on Friday at 38.38.


Join The Oasis and receive chart information about stocks you personally follow as well as ideas about other stocks with powerful chart patterns.

Previous Newsletters

View Jul 10, 2022 Newsletter

View Jul 17, 2022 Newsletter

View Jul 24, 2022 Newsletter

View Jul 31, 2022 Newsletter

View Aug 07, 2022 Newsletter

View Aug 14, 2022 Newsletter

View Aug 21, 2022 Newsletter

View Aug 28, 2021 Newsletter

View Sep 04, 2022 Newsletter

View Sep 11, 2022 Newsletter

View Sep 18, 2022 Newsletter

View Sep 25, 2022 Newsletter

View Oct 02, 2022 Newsletter

View Oct 09, 2022 Newsletter

View Oct 16, 2022 Newsletter

View Oct 23, 2022 Newsletter

View Oct 30, 2022 Newsletter

View Nov 06, 2022 Newsletter

View Nov 13, 2022 Newsletter

View Nov 27, 2022 Newsletter

View Dec 04, 2022 Newsletter

Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns.
A must have for chart aficionados!


Disclaimer

The opinions and commentaries by Mr. De Vito are not a recommendation to buy or sell, but rather a charting guideline, based on his own knowledge and experience, regarding the stocks he is following or that are brought to him by others. Mr. De Vito does not presently offer a track record of his trading experiences. No inference of success and/or failure should be assumed. The information enclosed above, regarding his background, length of trading, and experience, is correct but is not meant to suggest, state, or infer any future success in trading, based on his opinions.

The information herewith included should only be used by investors who are aware of the risk inherent in securities trading. Mr. De Vito accepts no liability whatsoever for any loss arising from any use of the information and/or comments he supplies.




The Oasis is owned by
Oasis Resolutions Inc.