Issue #797
January 15, 2023 , 2022 | Newsletter
The newsletter with chart analysis for stocks and stock indexes |
Stock Indexes Analysis/Evaluation
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| Uncertainty remains in market. Nonetheless, bulls continue to have the edge.
DOW Friday closing price - 34302
The bull run continued in the 2nd week of the year as the indexes tacked on an additional 2-4% rally (above last week's close) this past week. The indexes closed on the high of the week and further upside is expected to be seen this week. In the DOW that is above 34342, in the SPX that is above 4003 and in the NASDAQ that is above 11547.
The news (economic reports) were not been particularly good this past week as the inflation report came in as expected and the beginning of the earnings quarter showed 4 financial companies reporting worse than expected earnings, meaning that the rally is not fundamentally supported, at least not to the level of rally being seen. By the same token, the bulls have not yet been able to make any kind of a clear and definitive statement as no pivotal chart resistance level has been broken as yet.
Nonetheless, the indexes did reach levels of resistance last week that are indicative, if broken convincingly. In the DOW and on a daily closing basis, that level is at 34429, in the SPX that level is at 4019, and in the NASDAQ 11582. In addition and on the SPX the 200-day MA is currently at 3981 and in the NASDAQ, the 200-week MA is currently at 11526. Simply stated, another green close next Friday in the NASDAQ, attached to the SPX generating a daily close above 4019 for 2 days in a row this week, would be a strong tangible sign that the bulls have won the battle and likely won the war.
It does need to be mentioned that this week neither the bulls nor the bears are going to have much fundamental support for their side. On the earnings front, GS and MS report earnings on Tuesday and NFLX on Thursday afternoon. On the economic side, Retail Sales and PPI report come out Wednesday morning. None of these reports are likely to be catalytic in anyway. As such, this week is likely to be all chart-oriented and the chart levels are close by and clearly defined.
The SPX will be the index to watch this week given that it does have 2 important earnings reports coming out and does have immediate and close by levels of resistance. Like I mentioned above, a daily close above 4019 would not only break a short-term pivotal resistance but would also confirm the break of the 200-day MA. The index closed on Friday at 3999 and that means that the big battle is just 20 points higher than Friday's close. To the downside, any close (daily or weekly) below 3900 would "pop the balloon".
I do find it difficult to believe that the bulls can accomplish such a feat with the fundamental scenario now in place. Nonetheless, the bulls have momentum on their side and have already accomplished more than I thought possible. It is likely to be a telling week.
OIL generated an unexpected inside week but did close green and on the high of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 80.11 will be seen this week. The green weekly close does mean that the previous week's close at 73.69 is now a successful retest of the 51-week low weekly close at 71.50 that occurred the 1st week of December. Confirmation of the successful retest will come this week if Oil closes above 80.95 any day this week or closes above 80.47 next Friday. Like with the indexes and Gold, this past week was a bit of a surprise given that the bears were in control until last Monday but now seem to be on the verge of giving that control up and giving an edge to the bulls. It does need to be mentioned though, that this past week several of the big company analysts did predict that Oil would start rallying and generate a rally of some consequence. To the upside, the 85.41 level (85.09 on a weekly closing basis) is the next midterm intraweek pivotal resistance. If broken, it would be a signal that the downtrend is fully over and that a recovery rally of some consequence is to occur. If all of this is to occur, the 77.27 level (78.74 on a weekly closing basis) would become pivotal and indicative support.
DOLLAR continued lower and made a new 7-month intraweek and weekly closing low and closed near the low of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 101.99 will be seen this week. Nonetheless and like with the indexes, Gold and Oil, the Dollar is facing a pivotal week, given that there is pivotal intraweek support at 101.30 (101.67 on a weekly closing basis). This whole area between $101 and $102 is important on all charts (daily, weekly and monthly), meaning that there has to be some tangible fundamental reason for this level to break. Such a fundamental reason is not present at this time given that all the economic reports have not yet given any tangible reason for the Dollar to weaken further and the indexes to rally higher. Any confirmed daily close below 101.67 would be a tangible negative. With the dollar closing on Friday at 102.20, it means that the Dollar bulls will need to make this coming week a green one, almost from the get-go. At this time, resistance is found between 104.85 and 105.52 that if this level of support holds up, will likely become the target for a recovery rally. Any daily close above 105.52 would be a short-term bull statement.
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Stock Analysis/Evaluation
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CHART Outlooks
The bulls remained in control even though the economic and earnings reports this week were unclear to perhaps even slightly to the bear side. The charts do feel overdone do the upside but there have not yet been any signals that the bears might gain the edge at this time. Nonetheless, it is very difficult to be a buyet at this time and that means that sales are the preferred trade. I did check out quite a few stocks this week to short but generally I was not able to locate stocks that offered clearly defined levels to trade off of that offer a decent risk/reward ratio. I did find one though, and that will be the mention this week.
X Friday Closing Price - 28.35
X is a steel company that has appreciated in value 43% over the past 26 weeks and has appreciated in value 38% over the past 15 weeks with only minor fallbacks during the process occurring. Nonetheless, the stock is reaching a level of intraweek resistance between 27.40 and 30.57 resistance that held up on 5 occasions over 11 months (from March 2021 to February 22), suggesting the bulls will need some strong fundamental help in order to break through. The company reports earnings on January 26th and even then, the expectations are for the company reporting earnings much like it reported in October and at that time, the stock has trading at $18. There are 5 analysts that are covering X and they all have the stock as a hold but none are showing expectations of higher prices for the stock.
X closed near the high of the week on Friday and further upside above last week's high at 28.86 is expected to be seen this week. There is intraweek resistance at 29.97 and at 30.57, one of which is likely to be neared or seen this week. As such, the stop loss will be placed at 30.67.
To the downside, X shows the 200-week MA currently being at 18.01 and that line has been a magnet for the past 2 years as it has been reached a total of 7 times during that period of time. If the stock does find resistance at this level and the rally stops, that line would be the objective to be reached over the next 13 weeks. On a short-term basis, there is short-term pivotal daily close support at 27.20, which if broken would suggest that a drop down to the $24 level would likely be seen. The 200-day MA is currently at 24.16, and it is evident that line will be pivotal once the stock starts heading lower.
Sales of X above 28.86 and using a stop loss at 30.67 and having an $18 objective offers a 6-1 risk/reward ratio. My rating on the trade is a 3.5 (on a scale of 1-5 with 5 being the highest).
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Updates
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| Updates on Held Stocks |
Closed Trades, Open Positions and Stop Loss Changes |
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CAT continued to move higher, having added an additional 3.8% value over the previous week's close. The stock once again closed on the high of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 258.58 will be seen this week. Based on the flag formation that was broken, the objective remains $304. Nonetheless, after the previous week's close, the 3 most aggressive analyst upside projections (out of 22 projections) were $255, $266, and $288 and the first of the 3 was reached last week. Last week, Wells Fargo lowered their projection from $228 down to $218. Nonetheless, at this time and based on the chart, there is no resistance above, meaning that what upside objective will be reached is not known. To the downside, a weekly close below 244.02 or a confirmed (2 days in a row) daily close below 244.79 will generate a failure signal against the bulls. DOW made a new 20-week intraweek and weekly closing high and closed on the high of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 58.80 will be seen this week. The stock broke the decent intraweek resistance at 56.43 based on the Wells Fargo price upgrade from $55 to $60. As the week proceeded, other analysts raised their own projections as well. Nonetheless, WFC projection is still the highest one as the others run the gamut from $47 up to $55. This breakout does change the chart picture with $51-$52 now being the possible down target based on the breakout. There is one important level above which could be pivotal in deciding what will ultimately happen to the stock this quarter. There is an open gap up on the weekly chart at 61.86. If the gap is closed, the bulls will gain short-term control totally. Nonetheless, if the gap is not closed, the bears still have a chance of making their voices heard. There is a small mountain of daily close resistance at the $60 demilitarized zone, which will be difficult to break without additional news. To the downside, there are a couple of short-term important support levels with the first being at 56.11 and the second one being at 54.80, both of them being on a daily closing basis. The first one was the breakout that occurred this week and the second one being the 200-day MA, which cause the breakout when broken. There is a 3rd level of support at 52.76 (based on a daily close) that will possible be reached if the breakout does not represent a bull market (unlikely). Either way, this is no longer a stock to keep for a potential profit to be made. It is a stock to get out at the best price possible. ENG generated a spike rally this week, having recovered 20% from the previous week's low on an intraweek basis (on a daily closing basis, it is a 10% rally). The stock did generate the biggest trading range in 9 weeks. Nonetheless, the bulls failed to close above the previous low weekly close at .87 and the volume seen is not supportive of anything else than perhaps a short covering rally, meaning that the bulls did not accomplish anything of note, other than perhaps defining a bottom to this move down. The stock closed in the middle of the week's trading range, meaning that there is an equal chance of going above last week's high at .90 than below last week's low at .73. On a positive note though, the stock did give a buy signal on the daily closing chart, having closed above the previous 5-week daily closing high at .84 on Wednesday. Thereafter, the stock did fall back to close at a previous daily close support level at .82, meaning that if the stock generates a green close on Monday, a bottom formation will have been formed. If the stock closes above .88 any day this week, the bottom formation will be confirmed. If all of that happens, the upside target will become the 1.10 level. Any daily close now below .77, will be a negative sign. LI generated an uneventful inside week but did close green and near the high of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 22.80 will be seen this week. Though the action seen this past week did not generate any new signals, the bulls were able to close above a previous low weekly close of some consequence at 20.92, meaning they still have a short-term edge. Pivotal short-term weekly close resistance is found at 22.78 (closed on Friday at 22.49, which if broke would give at 26.93 objective. Any daily close below 20.93 would be seen as a failure and give the edge back to the bears. PLNHF generated another green weekly close and closed on the high of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 1.02 will be seen this week. The minimum upside objective of this recent mention was the 1.03 level and that is likely to be seen this week. The stock has now rallied 40% from the low and is in a position to make a short-term bull statement if it can close above 1.11 next Friday. Two daily closes in a row above 1.06 this week would also be seen as a bull statement. On a possible negative note, this rally from the .61 level has been straight up, meaning no recent support levels have yet been built. This means that the bulls must continue to move higher and generate further upside (including some failure signals against the bears) before any pullback occurs.From the past, there is weekly close support at the .93/.94 level. TXT generated a negative reversal week, having made a new 4-week high and then closing red and near the low of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 69.86 will be seen this week. The red weekly close has now built a double high on the weekly closing chart at 71.71 and 71.85 that is now ominous to the stock but also pivotal for the bulls should it get broken. Nonetheless, the bears were also not able to accomplish anything of consequence as the stock has traded for the past 9 weeks and for the most part between 69.39 and 71.85 (based on daily closes) and until one of those two get broken, neither the bulls nor the bears can claim any kind of a win. The bears will have a shot this week as the stock closed at 70.25 on Friday and is likely to go below 69.86 this week, meaning the 69.39 level is likely to be tested this week. VET generated a positive reversal week, having made a new 52-intraweek low but then closing green and near the high of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 15.77 will be seen this week. With Oil also possibly having built a bottom to the recent downtrend, it is possible the stock has done the same. Nonetheless, the bulls still have a lot to do in order to generate any tangible recovery signals. A daily close above 17.01 will generate a failure signal against the bears and that is what is needed at this time to give a recovery signal. Evidently, last week's low at 14.91 is now pivotal support. A break of that level will once again give a downside objective of $13. VNET generated a negative reversal week, having made a new 8-week intraweek high and then closing red and in the lower half of the week's trading range, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 5.84 will be seen this week. Nonetheless, the stock has now traded for a full 3 weeks above the 200-day MA, currently at 5.48, and some pullback to retest that breakout is normal. The stock generated a breakout the previous week, having closed above the pivotal weekly close resistance at 6.11. With the stock closing on Friday at 6.10, a green weekly close this Friday would not only confirm the breakout but if the close is above the previous week's close at 6.13, a new and more bullish short-term buy signal will be given. Pivotal intraweek support is found at 5.25. ZLAB generated and uneventful inside week but did generate another green weekly close and a close near the high of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 49.24 will be seen this week. It is important to note that on Thursday, the stock dropped all the way down to 40.22 and it is the $40 level that is now considered important short-term support. Nonetheless, on Friday alone, the stock rallied 15.8% and that is a clear signal that the support level now has a successful retest of it and that further upside is likely to be seen. On a weekly closing basis, pivotal resistance is found at 48.80, which if broken would suggest the bulls will target the 200-week MA, currently at 72.98, to be reached sometime over the next 4-8 weeks. On a daily closing basis, that same pivotal resistance level is at 51.69. Pivotal support, on a daily closing basis, is now found at 40.69.
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1) SNDL - Averaged long at 9.05 (2 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 2.27. 2) SRUTF - Averaged long at .0738 (3 mentions). No stop loss at moment. Stock closed on Friday at .00685. . 3) BTZI - Averaged long at .0935 (4 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at .021. . 4) ZLAB - Averaged long at 71.955 (6 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 47.62. 5) NEM - Liquidated at 53.47. Averaged long at 61.492. Loss on the trade of $4001 per 100 shares (5 mentions). 6) ENG - Averaged long at 3.378 (5 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at .82. 7) VNET - Averaged long at 5.32 (2 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 6.10. 8) AAPL Covered shorts at 131.61. Averaged short at 147.90. Profit on the trade of $3268 per 100 shares (2 mentions). 9) CAT - Averaged short at 211.9675 (4 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 258.46. 10) LI - Averaged long at 31.942 (4 mentions. No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 22.49. 11) DOW - Averaged short at 51.36. No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 58.68. 12) VET - Purchased at 20.38. No Stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 15.54. 13) CAT - Shorted at 256.11. Covered shorts at 257.20. Loss on the trade of $109 per 100 shares. 14) TXT - Shorted at 72.26. Stop loss at 72.73. Stock closed on Friday at 70.25.
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The opinions and commentaries by Mr. De Vito are not a recommendation to buy or sell, but rather
a charting guideline, based on his own knowledge and experience, regarding the stocks he is following or
that are brought to him by others. Mr. De Vito does not presently offer a track record of his trading experiences.
No inference of success and/or failure should be assumed. The
information enclosed above, regarding his background, length of trading, and experience, is correct
but is not meant to suggest, state, or infer any future success in trading, based on his opinions. The information herewith included should only be used by investors who are aware of the risk inherent in securities trading. Mr. De Vito accepts no liability whatsoever for any loss arising from any use of the information and/or comments he supplies. |
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