Issue #796
January 8, 2023 , 2022 | Newsletter
The newsletter with chart analysis for stocks and stock indexes |
Stock Indexes Analysis/Evaluation
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| Uncertainty remains as Economic reports were inconclusive. Volatility is high. CPI report this week is pivotal.
DOW Friday closing price - 33630
The bulls got off to a good start for the year, having generated a green weekly close and a rally of anywhere from 1% (NASDAQ) to 1.8% (RUT) in the first week of the year. Nonetheless, the economic reports that came out (Jobs and ISM Index) were mostly as expected and that means that the bulls continue to get data that shows that things for 2023 are not as bad as some have stated. That all the potential negatives about the economy that have been anticipated will come, are not yet showing up.
The inflation report (CPI) is due to come out on Thursday and the earnings quarter begins on Friday with BAC, C, JPM, and WFC reporting. These financial institutions should be showing some positives given the higher interest rates that have been in effect for the past 6 months and that should have added to their bottom line. The inflation report will be pivotal given that if inflation continues to come down (likely), the Fed will start becoming more dovish and start considering lowering the interest rate hikes (in Feb from the expected 50 points to perhaps 25 points). Such action would will diminish the thoughts of recession (at least as far as the strength of it) and begin to generate thoughts of the economy growing (instead of shrinking) in 2023. As such, the CPI number will be quite important this week.
As far as the charts are concerned, the DOW did break out of a 3-week sideways action area, having made on Friday a 3-week high daily close above 33376. In addition, the index also generated a small failure signal against the bears, having closed above the daily close support area at 33476, which when broken caused the index to drop down to 32581. The small buy and failure signals given also mean that the 200-day MA, currently at 33420, now shows a successful retest of it, meaning the midterm uptrend remains intact. The index shows no intraweek resistance above until the 34,000 level and even then and on an intraweek basis, that level is considered minor resistance. The stronger resistance is found at 34281. On a daily closing basis, there is some likely pivotal resistance at 34108. On a weekly closing basis, that resistance is found at 33761.
In the SPX, which is likely to be the index the traders pay most attention to this week (due to the earnings reports due out on Friday), there are 2 levels to watch on the daily closing chart. The first one is at 3938, which is where the daily close support is found that when broken, caused the index to drop down to 3764. A daily close above that level would generate a failure signal against the bears. The 3996 level is where the 200-day MA is currently at. That line has been resistance (not showing a confirmed break above it) since April of last year. Evidently a confirmed close above the line would give the bulls some decent to perhaps strong ammunition for further upside. On a weekly closing basis though, the first resistance level of importance is found at 3901. The bulls failed to close above it on Friday, and that means that a red close this Friday would mean that level has been retested successfully, which in turn would give the bears new ammunition.
In both cases (DOW and SPX), if the lows mentioned above get broken, it would now be a key indication that the indexes are heading lower. It does need to be mentioned that the seasonal tendency for January is to be a break-even month. Since 1950, January has been an up month 57% of the time and a down month 43% of the time and normally it has not been all the strong in either direction, meaning there is no clear pattern for January. Then again, on a seasonal basis, December was supposed to be an up month this year but that did not happen, suggesting that the market is trading on other factors away from seasonality.
It is likely that the indexes will trade on both sides of the coin (red and green) for the first 3 days of the week. The bulls are not likely to be aggressive until the inflation report comes out and the bears do have clear resistance levels above they can sell against, meaning they risk will be small. As such, both bulls and bears will see the indexes trade in their favor at some point during Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday. Any trading done will likely be day trading or overnight trading. As such, this week is more of a flip-of-a-coin than anything else. On a fundamental basis though, the outlook does remain negative for the first 6 months of the year.
OIL generated a negative reversal week, having made a new 4-week intraweek high and then closing below the previous week's low and near the low of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 72.72 will be seen this week. The inability to move higher and followed by a negative reversal week, suggests that Oil will likely to below last month's low at 70.11 this month and not generate first a rally (as I mentioned last week). In fact, it would not be surprising to see last month's low broken this week. If that occurs, the downside target is 66.04. That downside target though, is highly unlikely to get broken unless additional negative fundamental news comes out, given that there is a mountain of support between $64 and $66. Then again, if the bears fail to break the 70.11 intraweek low this week (71.50 on a daily closing basis) and generate a green weekly close next week, the chart will shift and give the bulls a small edge. Like with the index market and Gold, this week is strongly short-term indicative (and pivotal) on what is to happen over this coming quarter. At this time, it is a flip of a coin.
DOLLAR generated a green weekly close on Friday but it was only by $.36 cents, meaning it was not indicative of anything. In fact, the Dollar showed some strength all week, having moved up every single day above the previous day's high and on Friday, it did get up close to the intraweek resistance at 105.79 with a high on at 105.63. Nonetheless, Friday was a negative reversal day and in the end the Dollar closed near the low of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 103.47 will be seen this week. The downside target for the short term remains the 101.30 level (on an intraweek basis). The resistance level at 105.79 has now been strengthened (become pivotal) with the 105.63 high on Friday. Like with the index market, this week is highly pivotal for the short-term. The Dollar will strengthen or weaken based on what the Fed does.
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Stock Analysis/Evaluation
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CHART Outlooks
I have no new mentions this week but the ones from last week remain viable. After Thursday's inflation report, I will have new mentions. That report is likely to determine what will happen for the next 2-3 months.
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Updates
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| Updates on Held Stocks |
Closed Trades, Open Positions and Stop Loss Changes |
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CAT made a new all-time high this past week and closed on the high of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 249.91 will be seen this week. The stock has broken out of a bullish flag formation that offers an upside target of $304. Nonetheless and on a fundamental basis, of the 20 (or so) analysts following the stock, there are only 3 of them offering any higher objectives than where the stock is trading now. The highest objective given is $285, then $266 and the last one at $255. The rest of the analysts have given lower objectives for 2023, with the least being $220 and the rest offering an objective as low as $175. At this time though and with the stock trading at new highs, the onus is on the bears to make some form of statement this week that offers any downside potential. As such, a weekly close below 244.02 or a confirmed (2 days in a row) daily close below 244.79 will generate a failure signal against the bulls. Otherwise, there is no resistance above other than a psychological one at the $250 level. Evidently and like with most everything else, this coming week is pivotal for the overall market, meaning that the close next Friday (above or below 244.02) will likely decide the outlook for the next 2-3 months. DOW made a new 19-week intraweek and weekly closing high and closed on the high of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 55.24 will be seen this week. The stock still has decent intraweek resistance at 56.43 that will need to be broken for the bulls to claim victory, which if broken would offer a $61 upside objective. By the same token, this breakout did take away some of the bearish outlook that the stock had previously shown. In addition, the breakout has now strengthened the intraweek support at 48.27/48.58, meaning that the bears now need some form of negative news to break that level to the downside. It should be mentioned that the resistance between 56.25 and 56.43 is recent as well as old as the former was the high made in November 2019 and from which a fall down to 21.95 occurred and the latter occurred in August of last year and from which a drop down to 42.91 occurred. As such, it is a resistance of note. One additional and important chart factor is that the stock closed on Friday at the 200-day MA, currently at 54.76, and that line has not been broken to the upside since June of last year. As such, it will require help from the index market heading higher to break this level convincingly. On a possible positive note for the bulls, the stock is now showing a breakaway/runaway chart formation with the breakaway gap being between 51.15-51.40 and the runaway gap being between 52.98 to 53.32. On a negative note, there has been no news to support this gap formation, meaning that if the runaway gap is closed, the breakaway gap will likely be closed as well. On a daily closing basis, the 53.14 level is now support. If two daily closes below that level occur, a failure signal against the bulls will be generated. Like with everything else, this is a pivotal week for the stock. ENG generated another new 23-month intraweek and weekly closing low and closed in the lower half of the week's trading range, suggesting further downside below last week's low at .71 will be seen this week. The stock finds itself in a support level between .74 and .78 cents (.68-.75 on in intraweek basis) that is strongly pivotal given that in September 2020, the low weekly close was .74, it was then followed with a rally back up to 1.10 and another drop down to .78, which was then followed with a rally up to 7.72 within 3 months. As such and if the company is to remain viable, this level needs to hold up. The stock has seen 5 weeks in a row of red closes and that has not happened since March 2020 (6 red weekly closes then). As such, the probabilities do favor a green weekly close on Friday. Pivotal intraweek resistance is found at .87. LI generated a green weekly close but closed in the lower half of the week's trading range, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 19.81 will be seen this week. The weekly close was also somewhat disappointing inasmuch as there was resistance at 20.91 (closed on Friday at 20.93) and a convincing close above that level would have suggested that further upside is to come. Nonetheless, having closed at that level, does leave the door open for a red weekly close on Friday and the bears getting the short-term edge back. Like with everything else, it is a pivotal week for the stock. A green weekly close next Friday will leave the door open for rallies up to the $24-$25 level, while a red weekly close next Friday would suggest that a drop back down to as low as $16 could occur. NEM generated a new 24-week intraweek and weekly closing high and closed near the high of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 53.29 will be seen this week. The 200-week MA is currently at 53.99 and that is a line that has not been tested or broken to the upside since July (it was the first time it got broken to the downside in 4 years). As such, it is not likely that it will get broken to the upside the first time around (at least not convincingly). As such, looking to liquidate the positions should be considered this week. The 53.27 to 54.73 area, on both the intraweek, daily and weekly closing basis is decent resistance. There are 3 factors that make this resistance area very difficult to break at this time. 1) the 200-day MA is currently at 54.73, 2) the low daily close support that stood up for 27 months (from April 2020 to July 2022) and that when broken caused the stock to drop all the way down to 37.79 is at 53.27, 3) the same support but on a weekly closing basis, is at 53.56. All of these factors make this area of resistance difficult to break at this time, meaning that drops all the way back down to $45 and maybe even down to $40 could be seen if this resistance area holds up (likely). PLNHF generated a strong 32% bounce from the low weekly close made the previous week (from $.61 to $.90), suggesting that the recent downtrend is over. The stock closed near the high of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at .96 will be seen this week. There was no news to generate the rally, suggesting that the chart selling has dried up as the stock neared the all-time low weekly close at .57. The upside objective of this recovery rally is the 1.03 level (on a weekly closing basis) given that was the weekly close support that when broken took the stock down to .61. Nonetheless, there is weekly close resistance of some consequence between .93 and .94 as those were the low weekly closes seen in December 2018 and in March 2020. A close above all 3 of these would mean the downtrend is over and a larger recovery rally is occurring. It must be mentioned that this entire fall from 1.70 to .61 was mostly chart oriented as there was absolutely no negative news about the company reported. As such, the stock will continue to react to charts until the next earnings report (due out in February). If the stock does go above last week's high this week, support will be found at .86, at .75 and at .66. The support at .75 though, is from the 10-minute chart as that is where the 200 10-minute MA is currently at. That is a line that was unbroken to the upside for the last 3 weeks and therefore now support. By the same token, it is a support that is moving every 10-minutes, meaning it can change from day to day. On an intraweek basis, there is no resistance above until 1.30-1.35 is reached. This is a stock that due to the circumstances of its fall-from-grace can be highly volatile at this time. Nonetheless, the fundamental picture for the company is positive, meaning it is a buy at this price, especially with last week's bounce as it likely means that a double bottom has now been built. VET made a new 51-week intraweek and weekly closing low and closed near the low of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 14.67 will be seen this week. This move down was a breakdown of the 29-month uptrend which started in March 2020, meaning that the that the outlook for most (if not all) of 2023 is for a sideways market at best. The $13 level is the downside objective given that there is established support at 13.01 and the 200-week MA is currently at 13.07. Once reached, the stock is likely to get into a trading range between that level and $21 for the rest of the year, with the $17 level being the pivot point depending on the fundamental picture at the time. VNET generated a new 7-week intraweek high and a new 8-month weekly closing high and closed on the high of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 6.13 will be seen this week. The stock still has intraweek resistance at a double high at 6.43/6.45 but if broken, it will strongly suggest the downside is over and a rally up to the mentioned proposed merge price at $8 is likely to occur. The 5.25 level on an intraweek basis is now pivotal support. The stock has now convincingly broken the 200-day MA, currently at 5.50, which is now considered important support that will not be broken unless negative news comes out. ZLAB reported positive results on one of their innovative bi-pharma products and generated a 33% rally from the previous week's close to Friday's close. The action generated several strong positive signals starting with the stock giving a convincing buy signal, having made a new 16-week intraweek high and breaking above the pivotal intraweek resistance found at 40.17 as well as breaking the 200-day MA, currently at 36.90, in a confirmed way. The stock closed near the high of the week and further upside above last week's high at 49.81 will be seen this week. Nonetheless, the stock did back of that high to close on Friday at 46.33 and a retest of the 40.17 breakout area is a possibility for this week. By the same token, there is established intraweek support at 42.66 and at 41.04, meaning a drop back down to 40.17 is not necessarily going to happen. The $50 level and up to 53.65 is now the resistance area the bulls have to tackle before more upside can be seen. As such, and probably for the next few weeks, the stock could trade between $42 and $52.
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1) SNDL - Averaged long at 9.05 (2 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 2.13. 2) SRUTF - Averaged long at .0738 (3 mentions). No stop loss at moment. Stock closed on Friday at .0056. . 3) BTZI - Averaged long at .0935 (4 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at .005. . 4) ZLAB - Averaged long at 71.955 (6 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 46.33. 5) NEM - Averaged long at 61.492 (5 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 52.69. 6) ENG - Averaged long at 3.378 (5 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at .74. 7) VNET - Averaged long at 5.32 (2 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 6.11. 8) AAPL Covered shorts at 131.61. Averaged short at 147.90. Profit on the trade of $3268 per 100 shares (2 mentions). 9) CAT - Averaged short at 211.9675 (4 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 248.86. 10) LI - Averaged long at 31.942 (4 mentions. No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 20.93. 11) DOW - Shorted at 50.87 and at 51.85. Averaged short at 51.36. Stop loss now at 56.53. Stock closed on Friday at 55.02. 12) VET - Purchased at 20.38. No Stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 15.07. 13) CAT - Shorted at 247.47. Covered shorts at 248.44. Loss on the trade of $97 per 100 shares. 14) DOW - Shorted at 55.02. Covered shorts at 55.09. Loss on the trade of $7 per 100 shares. 15) TXT - Shorted at 71.62. Covered shorts at 71.77. Loss on the trade of $17 per 100 shares.
Previous Newsletters
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The opinions and commentaries by Mr. De Vito are not a recommendation to buy or sell, but rather
a charting guideline, based on his own knowledge and experience, regarding the stocks he is following or
that are brought to him by others. Mr. De Vito does not presently offer a track record of his trading experiences.
No inference of success and/or failure should be assumed. The
information enclosed above, regarding his background, length of trading, and experience, is correct
but is not meant to suggest, state, or infer any future success in trading, based on his opinions. The information herewith included should only be used by investors who are aware of the risk inherent in securities trading. Mr. De Vito accepts no liability whatsoever for any loss arising from any use of the information and/or comments he supplies. |
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