Issue #807
April 2, 2023 ,
The Oasis

Newsletter


The newsletter with chart analysis for stocks and stock indexes

Stock Indexes Analysis/Evaluation


Bulls gain a short-term edge, while traders await earnings.

DOW Friday closing price - 33274
SPX Friday closing price - 4109
NASDAQ Friday closing price - 13189
RUT Friday closing price - 1802

Across the board, all indexes rallied this past week between 3.6% and 3.8%. The constancy in the rally (no dichotomies between the indexes) was a sign that this rally has legs to it. Nonetheless, there was no news during the week to support the rally, meaning that it started mostly on a technical basis due to the recovery seen as the end of the previous week. On Friday though, the bulls did get fundamental support as the PCE index report came in lower than expected (.3% vs expected .4%) and that was a tangible sign that inflation is easing. That report gave the bulls the necessary ammunition to rally further and end the week on the highs of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's highs will be seen this week (DOW above 33291, SPX above 4110, NASDAQ above 13188 and RUT above 1802.

The bulls did accomplish quite a bit for the short-term and even for the midterm (as in the case of the NASDAQ, which made a new 7-month intraweek and weekly closing high and a new 12-month monthly closing high), meaning that for the next 2-4 weeks the bulls are likely to have the edge. This breakout, if confirmed at the end of April, opens the door for a rally in the NASDAQ up to as high as 14237, which is 1200 points higher. The SPX did make a new 8-month monthly closing high but on the weekly chart, the bulls failed to make a new 2-month weekly closing high and in the DOW, the index only made a new 4-week weekly closing high. In this respect, the dichotomy between the indexes remained alive.

What does this all mean? It means that what the traders will be looking/keying on this month are the earning reports that start on the 13th, with the big ones in the Tech Sector not coming in until May 4th. Nonetheless, the first set of reports this month are in the financial industry and with that industry being the one that has experienced problems of late, those reports can certainly be catalytic. As such, the period between April 13th and April 19th may turn out to be pivotal and is so, likely in favor of the bears. If those reports are not negatively catalytic, the traders will wait until the 1st week of May before making any big decisions.

On a seasonal basis, April has been known to be one of the best months of the year and June one of the worst months of the year. May has shown both good and bad tendencies throughout the past 50 years, though in the last 10 years (since the market started to recover from the 2008 recession), it has mostly been a positive month. Then again, the rally that started in 2009 and that did not end until 2022 (13 years later), was abnormal as never before had an uptrend lasted for so long and accomplished so much. On the "other side of the coin", it is expected that in 2023 all nations (and markets) will be in a recession and that outlook has not changed. As such, it is difficult to guess when the traders will begin to be sellers with that outlook in mind.

For the time being though, there is no reason for the markets to turn negative this week, unless the ISM index and Jobs Reports come out negative. The ISM is due out on Monday at 10:00am. It is expected to be around 47.4% and last month it came out at 47.7%. Above 50% and below 47% would like generate additional movement of some indicative power. The Jobs report comes out on Friday and it is expected to be 245K. Last month it was 311K so for it to be catalytic, it would have to come out above 300k or below 200k. Neither of the reports are likely to be surprise, suggesting they will not change the course of the market this week.

On a daily closing basis, the DOW does show the 33500 level to be short-term catalytic. The SPX shows the 4136 level to be short-term catalytic and the NASDAQ shows the 13667 level to be short-to-midterm catalytic. On the opposite side, the levels to watch at 33394, 3936, and 12610, respectively. Probabilities do suggest the indexes will trade within those ranges this week.


GOLD made yet another new 55-week intraweek high and weekly closing high but it saw a bit of a selloff late in the day on Friday, to close below the weekly close resistance at $1987 (closed at $1986) and close slightly in the lower half of the week's trading range, suggesting a slightly higher possibility of going below last week's low at $1962 than above last week's high at $2022. On the monthly chart, Gold did close $1 above the all-time high monthly close at $1985, meaning that the bulls need to do more this month to generate the kind of a breakout that is convincing. Using the daily closing chart, Gold remains in an uptrend but has seen over the past 2 weeks, up and down action that means that there is a fair amount of selling interest at this level. On a daily closing basis, the pivotal area of support is $1950 and the pivotal area of resistance is $2043. On a short-term basis, a break below $1970 would suggest the playing field is even, with no edge for the short-term for either the bears or the bulls. For now though, the same up and down trading, with higher highs and higher lows is likely to continue without any indicative break to the upside or the downside.

OIL made a new 14-day intraweek and weekly closing high and in the process gave a failure signal (against the bears) on the weekly closing chart, having closed above the previous low weekly close at 71.50 on Friday (closed at 75.67). Oil close on the high of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 75.72 will be seen this week. There is no intraweek resistance above until 80.94 is reached (79.68 on a daily closing basis). Pivotal weekly close resistance is found at 81.64. A break of that level would confirm the downtrend is over and open the door for rally up to the $84-$86 level. Any daily close below 71.50 would once again give the edge to the bears and open the door for more downside.

DOLLAR generated an uneventful inside week that included a green weekly close. Nonetheless, it closed very slightly ($.06 cents) in the lower half of the week' trading range, suggesting a slightly higher chance of going below last week's low at 102.02 than above last week's high 103.23. On an intraweek basis, pivotal area of support is at 100.82 and pivotal area of resistance is at 105.82. Chart suggests that the Dollar will continue to trade between $102 and $105 for the next month.


Stock Analysis/Evaluation
CHART Outlooks

I have no new mentions this week as the bulls do seem to have an edge but not a sufficient one to offer any good risk/reward ratios. By the same token and with April likely leaning to being an up month, sales are not the way to go, at least not for the next 1-4 weeks.

Having said that and in looking at the presently held stocks, there is one stock that the charts do say is a likely purchase and a trade that does offer a good risk/reward ratio with clearly defined support and resistance levels involved. The stock is AMRX and a purchase around the 1.32 level, using a stop loss at 1.20 and having an objective of 1.96 will offer a 5-1 risk/reward ratio. In addition, the fundamentals do support this specific move up. For details, check out the stock in the Held Stocks section below.

I am also looking at another held stock that could be a purchase this week. The stock is BABA and the additional purchase mention would be given if the stock gaps up at some point this week, especially if it gaps up above 119.68. You can also see the details below in the held stock section.

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Updates
Monthly & Yearly Portfolio Results
Closed Trades, Open Positions and Stop Loss Changes

Status of account for 2007: Profit of $9,758 per 100 shares after losses and commissions were subtracted.
Status of account for 2008: Profit of $14,704 per 100 shares after losses and commissions were subtracted.
Status of account for 2009: Profit of $7,523 per 100 shares after losses and commissions were subtracted.
Status of account for 2010: Profit of $24,045 per 100 shares after losses and commissions were subtracted.
Status of account for 2011: Profit of $3,616 per 100 shares after losses and commissions were subtracted.
Status of account for 2012: Profit of $3,399 per 100 shares after losses and commissions were subtracted.
Status of account for 2013: Profit of $15,886 per 100 shares after losses and commissions were subtracted.
Status of account for 2014: Profit of $21,221 per 100 shares after losses and commissions were subtracted.
Status of account for 2015: Profit of $19,190 per 100 shares after losses and commissions were subtracted.
Status of account for 2016: Loss of $15,134 per 100 shares after losses and commissions were subtracted.
Status of account for 2017: Loss of $9,666 per 100 shares after losses and commissions were subtracted.
Status of account for 2018: Profit of $1,637 per 100 shares after losses and commissions were subtracted
Status of account for 2019: Profit of $13,051per 100 shares after losses and commissions were subtracted
Status of account for 2020: Loss of $16,684 per 100 shares after losses and commissions were subtracted.
Status of account for 2021: Profit of $527 per 100 shares after losses and commissions were subtracted.

Status of account for 2023, as of 3/1

Profit of $6,486 using 100 shares per mention (after commissions & losses)

Closed out profitable trades for March per 100 shares per mention (after commission)

NONE

Closed positions with increase in equity above last months close minus commissions.

DOW (short) $706
CAT (short) $9268

Total Profit for March, per 100 shares and after commissions

Closed out losing trades for March per 100 shares of each mention (including commission)

SHOP $180
QQQ $110

Closed positions with decrease in equity below last months close plus commissions.

SHOP (short) $384
X (short) $74

Total Loss for March, per 100 shares, including commissions $748

Open positions in profit per 100 shares per mention as of 4/1

BABA (long) $2235 <

Open positions with increase in equity above last months close.

SRUTF (long) $15

Total $2,250

Open positions in loss per 100 shares per mention as of 4/1

TXT (short) $165
IR (short) $140
RBLX (short) $126

Open positions with decrease in equity below last months close.

AMRX (long) $86
ZLAB (long) $2334
ENG (long) $189
VET (long) $86
PLNHF (long) $19
BTZI (long) $11
SNDL (Long $56

Total $3,212

Status of trades for month of March per 100 shares on each mention after losses subtracted.

Profit of 8,254

Status of account/portfolio for 2023, as of 3/31

Profit of $14,740

per 100 shares.



Updates on Held Stocks

AMRX generated a positive reversal week, having made a new all-time low but then turning around and closing green and on the high of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 1.43 will be seen this week. The stock did generate a small failure signal against the bears, having closed on Friday above the previous low daily close at 1.35 (closed at 1.39, which does suggest that possibly, a bottom has been found. Nonetheless, such a signal will not be confirmed until the stock gets above 1.47 and closes above 1.43. A drop back down to 1.31 is expected to be seen this week but if that level holds up and the stock then turns around, it will be seen as the needed/required retest of the all-time low. If the stock does generate a new buy signal (a daily close above 1.43), there is open air up to the 1.96 level. In the last 30 days, the buy rating from the experts following the stock (3), have increased from 1 to 2, with 1 still being indifferent to the stock. There is really no fundamental reason for the stock being at this price and with the general market likely to go higher this week (and perhaps for the next 4 weeks), the stock should rally up to the $2 level. As such and for those not yet in the stock, this is now a purchase around 1.32, using a stop loss at 1.20 and having a 1.96 objective. It is a 5-1 risk/reward ratio.

BABA appreciated 15% in value this past week, based on the news the company has decided to split into 6 units in order unlock significant value of the company. The stock gapped up the day after the news and did so exactly at the 200-day MA, which is currently at 92.47, having seen a low on Tuesday (day after report) of 92.06. The stock did close near the high of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 105.05 will be seen this week. In looking at the weekly chart, the stock now shows a completed inverted Head & Shoulders formation with the left shoulder being at 86.49, the Head at 63.42 and the right shoulder at 81.67. The neckline is at 119.86. A break above the neckline would offer an objective of 176.30, which does correspond with a rally up to the 200-week MA, currently at 172.70. Such a rally to the MA is to be expected if the 119.86 level is broken, given that there is no important resistance until the 177.77 is reached. All of these levels are on a weekly closing basis. A second gap up is expected to be seen, given that the 1st gap was off of news. Certainly, a gap up above 119.86 would be the perfect scenario. All of this is also supported by the Chinese Market, which did generate a 2nd buy signal this past week and has an additional 1600 points above where no resistance of consequence is seen (closed at 20400 and has open air to 22000). To the downside, there is support at the $100 level and much stronger between $90 and $92.

ENG generated a new 10-year intraweek and weekly closing low, and did close near the low of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at .458 will be seen this week. In both cases though, the new lows were by minor amounts (intraweek by $.002 cents and on a weekly closing basis, by $.015 cents), meaning they are not statements. With the index market likely to be on a rally for the next few weeks, it is unlikely that further downside will occur. The stock did generate a small rally and green weekly close the preceding week, meaning that the traders now have a level that if broken, would generate a new short-term buy signal. On all charts, a rally and close above .58 would generate the buy signal and open the stock for at least a rally to .73. The stock did close near the high of the day on Friday and if it goes above Friday's high at .5134, a potential double bottom will have been built between .46 and .47 cents. Further downside seems unlikely as the stock is trading below book value at $.86.

IR generated another up week and closed on the high of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 58.22 will be seen this week. The stock has rallied 9% over the past 3 weeks but there has been no news to support the rally, other than the fact that its credit rating was taken out of the "junk status" category, suggesting it has all been mostly because of the rally in the index market. There is minor to perhaps decent resistance on the daily closing chart, between 57.97 and 58.22, and on the weekly closing chart, between 57.53 and 58.22. Having closed on Friday at 58.15, it does suggest that a red close will occur next Friday. Pivotal daily and weekly close resistance is found between 59.67 and 59.87. If broken, it would be a short-term bull statement. To the downside, there is minor daily close support at 57.53 and then a bit stronger at 55.90.

PLNHF generated another inside week and totally uneventful, given that it closed at the same price as the previous week. The stock did close slightly in the lower half of the week's trading range, suggesting a slightly higher chance of going below last week's low at .75 than above last week's high at .83, this week. Nonetheless, the stock has now seen 5 red weekly closes in a row and last week's even close, but the amount of down movement has been minimal in nature as those 5 red weekly closes have been at .88, .86, .84, .82, at .78 and Friday's close at .78. With the stock having seen a low at .60 and a high at 1.05 just 10-13 weeks ago, it is evident that the traders are not interested in either direction at this time and are awaiting news before making any decisions.

RBLX generated a new 5-month intraweek and weekly closing high and did close on the high of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 45.11 will be seen this week. The stock has appreciated 45% in value during the past 14 weeks. In addition, the stock has seen 10 green weeks and only 3 red weeks during this recovery rally. In spite of all that, the bulls have been unable to break above the high seen 7 weeks ago at 46.05 and much less the high seen 23 weeks ago at 47.67 and even less above the high made 35-weeks ago at 53.88. Simply stated, the bears remain with the edge since August of last year. Nonetheless, the stock is now in a position where some indicative movement is likely to be seen, either this week or the next. A rally above 46.05 will begin to give the edge to the bulls and that is only $1.07 above Friday's close. On the opposite side, a move below last week's low at 41.46, will give the bears additional ammunition. It does seem probable that something indicative but of short-term value will happen this week.

TXT generated a failure signal against the bears this week, having closed above the previous low weekly close at 67.85 on Friday. The stock closed on the high of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 71.01 will be seen this week. There is intraweek resistance between 72.05 and 72.35 that should hold at this time, unless the index market breaks their resistance levels above. The stock shows a breakaway/runaway gap formation with the breakaway gap being between 67.91 and 67.95 and the runaway gap being between 69.85 and 69.88. This formation is not supported by news, suggesting it will be closed. As such, the stock should trade between $72 and $67.70 for the next week or two.

VET generated a somewhat uneventful inside week but did close green and near the high of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 13.19 will be seen this week. On a positive note though, the stock generated a green close above the 200-week MA, currently at 12.45, having closed on Friday at 12.97. What made the stock actions seen this past week even more of note, is that Natural Gas made a new 30-month intraweek low this week. Natural gas did generate a positive reversal week, having made that multi-year low but then closing green and if it goes above last week's high at 2.24, a potential double bottom may be in the building process, given that last week's low was 1.95 and the previous low was at 1.96, which was made 6 weeks ago. The double bottom will be confirmed with a break above 2.71 (Natural Gas closed at 2.21 on Friday). Any further downside below 1.948 would be a new negative. If the stock can get above 13.21 this week, the bulls will get a short-term edge and if the recent high at 14.39 gets broken, the bottom will be confirmed as having been made.

ZLAB made a new 3-week intraweek high and did generate a green weekly close. Nonetheless, the stock closed in the lower half of the week's trading range, suggesting a higher possibility of going below last week's low a 31.72 than above last week's high at 35.68. In looking at the daily chart though, the stock closed on the high of the day on Friday, suggesting further upside above Friday's high at 33.59 will be seen on Monday. If that does occur, a required/needed successful retest of the recent 3-month low at 30.14 will have occurred and if that does happen, it could begin to shift the focus to the upside, especially considering that the Chinese Market has given a buy signal and should move further to the upside. On both charts, a move above 35.68 would be confirmation of everything mentioned above. Any move below 30.14 at this time would be a negative.


1) ZLAB - Averaged long at 71.955 (6 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 33.26.

2) ENG - Averaged long at 3.378 (5 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at .48.

3) SHOP Covered shorts at 47.77. Shorted at 45.97. Loss on the trade of $180 per 100 shares.

4) RBLX - Shorted at 43.72. No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 44.98.

5) AMRX - Averaged long at 2.01. No stop loss at present. Stock closed at 1.39 on Friday.

6) IR - Shorted at 56.78. No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 58.18.

7) VET - Averaged long at 16.73. No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 12.97.

8) TXT - Shorted at 68.96. No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 70.63.

9) BABA - Purchased at 79.83. Stop loss at 88.22. Stock closed on Friday at 102.18. <10>) QQQ - Shorted at 310.94. Covered shorts at 312.04. Loss on the trade of $110.


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Disclaimer

The opinions and commentaries by Mr. De Vito are not a recommendation to buy or sell, but rather a charting guideline, based on his own knowledge and experience, regarding the stocks he is following or that are brought to him by others. Mr. De Vito does not presently offer a track record of his trading experiences. No inference of success and/or failure should be assumed. The information enclosed above, regarding his background, length of trading, and experience, is correct but is not meant to suggest, state, or infer any future success in trading, based on his opinions.

The information herewith included should only be used by investors who are aware of the risk inherent in securities trading. Mr. De Vito accepts no liability whatsoever for any loss arising from any use of the information and/or comments he supplies.




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